Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?

- [2026-01-03] US forces conducted "Operation Absolute Resolve," striking Caracas and capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, flying them to New York to face narco-terrorism charges. In the early morning of January 3, 2026, the United States launched large-scale military strikes on Venezuela's capital, Caracas, and surrounding areas, in an operation named "Absolute Resolve," and President Donald Trump announced that U.S. forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, who were transported to New York and arraigned on charges of narco-terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy, and possession of machine guns. (https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/instability-venezuela) - [2026-01-03/05] Venezuela's Supreme Tribunal of Justice ordered Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to assume all presidential powers "to guarantee the administrative continuity," and the military (via Defense Minister Padrino López) publicly recognized her as acting leader. "In a historic decision, the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) determined on January 3, 2026 that the Executive Vice President, Delcy Eloína Rodriguez Gomez, immediately assume the duties of President-in-charge of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela." She was formally sworn in on January 5, 2026 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/venezuela-maduro-trump-live-updates-rcna252101, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/5/delcy-rodriguez-sworn-in-as-venezuelas-president-after-maduro-abduction). - [2026-03-18] Rodríguez dismissed longtime Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López — a Maduro loyalist who had held the post since 2014 — replacing him with Gustavo González López, and also reshuffled the housing and energy ministries, demonstrating control over the military/security apparatus. Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodríguez said she had dismissed influential Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López after more than a decade in office, with Gustavo González López due to replace him. (https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/venezuelas-rodr-guez-dismisses-maduro-064532604.html) - [2026-04-01] The US Treasury removed Rodríguez from its sanctions (SDN) list, reflecting Washington's treatment of her as the operative counterpart. The United States has lifted sanctions against Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez; the US Department of the Treasury website was updated on Wednesday to show that Rodriguez had been removed from the Specially Designated Nationals List. (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/1/us-removes-sanctions-on-venezuelas-interim-president-delcy-rodriguez) - [2026-06-24] Twin earthquakes (7.2/7.5) struck near Morón, killing over 2,000-5,500 people (sources vary), which Rodríguez's government managed the response to as the operative state authority (https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/instability-venezuela; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_Venezuela). - [2026-09-23] At the UN General Assembly, Rodríguez pledged elections as part of a transition to "full democracy" but gave no date; she also briefly met Trump on the sidelines and discussed debt restructuring with Rubio. "I want to make this very clear at this General Assembly: there will be elections in Venezuela," said Rodriguez, who came to power after American forces captured then-President Nicolas Maduro in a January raid; Venezuelan and US authorities have previously emphasized the need for an election, yet no date — not even a tentative one — has been set. (https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-09-23/venezuelas-rodriguez-promises-elections) - [2026-09-23] Opposition leader María Corina Machado was reportedly denied entry into Venezuela three times within 24 hours and is treated as a fugitive by the government, underscoring that Rodríguez's administration—not Machado—controls the state apparatus and borders. The opposition leader can fly home after seven failed attempts (her team's count, as of 4 October). (https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/instability-venezuela) - [2026-09-27] Hundreds of Venezuelans rallied in Caracas and other cities demanding Machado's safe return and elections, indicating continued opposition pressure but no change in who holds power (https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/instability-venezuela). - [2026-10-04] Vente Venezuela (Machado's party) said Machado is willing to hold direct talks with Rodríguez or her brother Jorge Rodríguez (National Assembly president) to "accelerate" a transition, but no meeting is set and Caracas has not replied. (https://www.riotimesonline.com/venezuela-machado-ready-meet-delcy-transition-2026) - [2026-10-08] The Manhattan US Attorney's Office stated it will file new charges against Maduro and Flores related to alleged torture of Americans, confirming Maduro remains in US custody/prosecution with no indication of imminent return to power. Updated September 25, 2026 tracker notes this is the latest entry as of filing (https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/instability-venezuela). - [2026-10-04] Analysts note the constitution mandates a 2030 vote while opposition seeks 2027; US officials (Energy Secretary Chris Wright) have said elections would occur "during the Trump administration" (by Jan 2029), with a "best-case" timeline of mid-2027 — meaning no election is expected before the end of 2026 (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/normalization-without-transition-delcy-rodriguezs-playbook/; https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-09-23/venezuelas-rodriguez-promises-elections). - [2026-10-04] CFR's conflict tracker, updated through early October 2026, continues to list Rodríguez as the "interim government" leader with the Chavista power structure "so far unchanged," and status marked "Unchanging." (https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/instability-venezuela) BOTTOM LINE: Since January 5, 2026, Delcy Rodríguez has continuously governed Venezuela as acting/interim president—controlling the military leadership (having replaced the defense minister), the executive branch, Miraflores, and foreign relations with Washington—while Maduro remains imprisoned/prosecuted in the US and the opposition (Machado) remains barred from the country with no transition date set; all trends through October 9, 2026 point to her continuing in this de facto role through year-end, as no credible election or power transfer is scheduled before 2027 at the earliest. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any coup, resignation, succession, or loss of control by Rodríguez; no confirmed election date for 2026; no direct Rodríguez-Machado meeting has occurred as of October 9, 2026.

- [2026-01-05] Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as the country's leader to ensure administrative continuity after Maduro's abduction by US forces — the starting point for the reference class of "interim leader who assumed power via extra-constitutional/forced transition." Source: https://www.scmp.com/topics/delcy-rodriguez - [2026-01-16] Within two weeks, analysts observed that much of the choreography of power looks just as it did before Nicolás Maduro's capture, with Delcy Rodríguez seamlessly moving into the role of acting president — an early signal that transitions of this kind (sitting VP stepping into an incapacitated strongman's shoes) tend to consolidate rather than dissolve quickly. Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-16/venezuela-s-delcy-rodriguez-consolidates-power-after-maduro-ouster - [2026-04-07] Historical/legal reference point: Venezuela's own Supreme Tribunal had imposed a 90-day limit on her "acting" mandate, yet Delcy Rodríguez remained Venezuela's acting president on Monday, exceeding the 90-day limit on her temporary role set by the country's high court following the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro in January , with no legislative vote to formally extend her term. This shows the self-imposed institutional deadline was simply ignored without consequence — a classic authoritarian-regime pattern (c.f. Maduro's own indefinite "acting"/extended terms, and the 2019 Guaidó standoff, where legal deadlines rarely force actual transfers of power). Source: https://kbindependent.org/2026/04/07/venezuelas-delcy-rodriguez-remains-acting-president-after-her-initial-90-day-appointment-expired/ (via search snippet) - [2026-03-18 to 2026-09-27] Rodríguez has continued to actively exercise core executive powers for nine months straight: she continues to make changes to her cabinet amid relations with the Trump administration, replacing General Vladimir Padrino with General Gustavo Gonzalez Lopez as defense minister ; and in a further reshuffle a total renewal of the commanders of the Strategic Regions of Integral Defense was executed so that no regional chief appointed during Maduro's regime remains in office, formalized 18 days after Operation Absolute Resolve . This degree of ongoing institutional control (cabinet, military high command, foreign ministry) is well beyond the "ceremonial/ caretaker" threshold the market's rules exclude. - [2026-09-23] At the reference class's key comparator event — international recognition — Rodríguez addressed the UN General Assembly as Venezuela's interim president, pledging elections as part of a transition to "full democracy" but giving no specific date . The CFR Global Conflict Tracker and Reuters both refer to her simply as "interim/acting president" governing the country, i.e., credentialed media and multilateral venues already treat her as the operative head of state, satisfying one of the market's own explicit "objective indicators." Source: https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/instability-venezuela - [2026-09-23] Analyst commentary (International Crisis Group) frames her persistence in power as the baseline expectation rather than an open question: Phil Gunson, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, called Rodriguez's pledge a "statement of the obvious," noting that while the constitution mandates a 2030 vote, the government has not committed to the 2027 timeline sought by the opposition — implying experts see no near-term electoral mechanism likely to displace her before end-2026. - [2026-10 undated] A regional risk-analysis outlet's base-rate framing of her durability: Interim President Delcy Rodríguez has largely succeeded in keeping Venezuela's ruling coalition together... a shared interest in retaining power, the continued fragmentation of the opposition and U.S. leverage over several high-profile officials have helped discourage elite defections and limit internal power struggles , per Control Risks analyst Manuela Jiménez. This is the most direct expert "forecast-like" statement found and it points toward continuity, not displacement. - [2026-02-05] Historical outside-view on electoral timelines in this exact episode: Politico reported on 5 February that María Corina Machado indicated elections could be held in Venezuela in 9 to 10 months, using manual voting, and had not discussed elections with Trump , while National Assembly president Jorge Rodríguez ruled out the possibility of elections in the near future — illustrating that even optimistic outside timelines (Machado's) point to an election window in roughly Nov 2026–mid-2027, with no guarantee the winner (if not Rodríguez) would actually take office before 2026 ends even if a vote were somehow held. - [2026-10-08] The reference-class "removal risk" (US prosecuting the ousted regime) continues to focus on Maduro and his wife, not on Rodríguez: the Manhattan U.S. Attorney's Office stated it will be filing new charges against ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in connection with allegedly ordering the torture of Americans , with Rodríguez herself facing scrutiny (per a Latin Times report on October 8 noting her prior role overseeing SEBIN) but no indication of imminent US action to remove her from power. - Outside venue (sibling market, informational only, not this contract): a Robinhood prediction market on "Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?" as of search date showed Delcy Rodríguez priced well above all other named contenders (Machado, Maduro, Cabello, González) combined — consistent with the qualitative evidence above, though that market asks about "officially holding" the position (a formal-title framing), which is a related but distinct question from this contract's "de facto" test. Source: https://www.robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/politics/events/who-will-lead-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026-jan-03-2026/ BOTTOM LINE: The relevant base rate here is not a large historical sample but a single, closely-watched ongoing case: an unelected VP-turned-acting-president who seized and then steadily consolidated executive, military and diplomatic control over nine-plus months, ignored her own court-imposed 90-day deadline without being displaced, and is treated by foreign governments and media as Venezuela's de facto leader — a trajectory that historically (per Chavista precedent of entrenched "acting"/extended incumbencies and the 2019 Guaidó impasse, where rival "legitimate" claimants failed to translate recognition into control) strongly favors continuity through any single near-term deadline like end-2026 absent an acute shock (death, coup, negotiated election actually completed and power transferred). NOT FOUND: No systematic academic/historical base-rate dataset (e.g., "% of interim/caretaker leaders in authoritarian regimes who remain de facto head of state N months after an externally-forced leadership change") was located; no concrete election date or law has been set for Venezuela as of the search date; could not access the original Reuters/AP wire stories on her swearing-in or the full kbindependent.org article (domain blocked) to confirm exact wording on the 90-day ruling's legal status.

YES means: Delcy Rodríguez remains, at 2026-12-31, the individual who actually exercises the governing powers of Venezuela's head of state — controlling the executive, the military/security apparatus, and the seat of government (Miraflores) — regardless of her formal "acting/interim" title or lack of international recognition as constitutional president. - [2026-10-08/09] Rodríguez, styled "presidenta encargada," used a major public platform — the installation of the 82nd annual Fedecámaras assembly, broadcast on state channel VTV — to unilaterally decree that Christmas celebrations would start November 1 to boost the economy, a policy lever (replicating a tool Maduro used repeatedly in crisis moments) that only an operative head of government can wield. (https://www.infobae.com/venezuela/2026/10/09/delcy-rodriguez-adelanto-las-celebraciones-de-navidad-en-venezuela-al-1-de-noviembre-24-dias-antes-de-lo-previsto/, https://www.lanacion.com.ar/el-mundo/delcy-rodriguez-adelanto-la-navidad-en-venezuela-comenzara-el-1-de-noviembre-nid08102026/) - [2026-10-08] On the same day the Manhattan US Attorney's office unveiled new torture-conspiracy charges against Maduro and Cilia Flores, Rodríguez publicly set national economic/monetary policy, ratifying her opposition to dollarization and framing "monetary sovereignty" as essential — a core head-of-state economic function exercised in real time, not a ceremonial gesture. (https://actualidad-rt.com/actualidad/631587-dolarizacion-venezuela-delcy-rodriguez-explicar-postura) - [2026-10-08] Spanish-language coverage explicitly labels her "la jefa de Estado interina" (the interim head of state) while describing her issuing binding national directives on commerce and festivities, confirming domestic/credentialed-media treatment of her as the operative head of state under the market's own listed indicator. (https://caretas.pe/mundo/delcy-rodriguez-adelanta-la-navidad-en-venezuela) - [2026-03-18 to 2026-10] Wikipedia's infobox for the Venezuelan presidency lists "Incumbent Delcy Rodríguez, Acting since 5 January 2026," with the seat still Miraflores Palace — i.e., she occupies the institutional seat of power continuously through the latest update. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Venezuela) - [2026-01-08 to 2026-08-15] Rodríguez's government has run an ongoing, publicly tallied amnesty/prisoner-release program (112 freed Jan 12, 621 confirmed by March 8, 131 more freed mid-August under the "Program for Peace and Democratic Coexistence"), demonstrating sustained administrative control over the justice/penitentiary system for over nine months, not a one-off gesture. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_political_prisoner_release_in_Venezuela, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/15/venezuela-says-131-political-prisoners-freed-amid-post-maduro-talks) - [2026-01-29] Rodríguez personally signed into law a reform opening Venezuela's oil sector to private/foreign investment — an exercise of the constitutional power to "comply with and enforce...laws" and direct economic policy that is the signature legislative act of her tenure, per Associated Press reporting referenced on PBS. (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/tag/delcy-rodriguez) - [2026 ongoing] Venezuela's presidential-powers article (Arts. 236-237) enumerates commander-in-chief authority, cabinet appointment, treaty-making, and emergency-decree power; Rodríguez has exercised essentially all of these (cabinet reshuffles including the March 18 defense-minister purge already on record, the oil-law signature, and prisoner amnesties), satisfying the resolution criteria's "control over executive ministries...and binding directives...obeyed and enforced" standard far beyond a caretaker threshold. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Venezuela) - [2026-10-04] Even amid opposition pressure (Machado blocked from entry, street protests), Vente Venezuela's overture sought talks "with Rodríguez or her brother" rather than any third party, implicitly treating the Rodríguez government as the sole operative counterpart capable of granting a transition — reinforcing that no rival center of governing authority currently exists inside Venezuela. (consistent with prior reporting already on file) BOTTOM LINE: Nine-plus months after assuming power, Rodríguez continues — as of the most current available reporting (Oct 8-9, 2026) — to issue binding national decrees (Christmas calendar, monetary policy), control the penitentiary/judicial apparatus via the amnesty program, hold the presidential seat and title "jefa de Estado interina" in domestic and foreign media, with no rival domestic claimant exercising any of these functions; the strongest YES path is simple continuity of the status quo absent an election or external shock before year-end. NOT FOUND: No specific Venezuelan law, decree, or National Assembly vote formally extending Rodríguez's mandate beyond the lapsed 90-day court deadline was located (the legal basis remains the original Jan 3 TSJ order); no confirmed Rodríguez-Machado meeting or election date as of Oct 9, 2026.

YES means: Delcy Rodríguez is still the individual who primarily exercises governing authority and core head-of-state powers in Venezuela as of 2026-12-31. NO means she has been displaced, sidelined, or no longer identifiable as the operative power-holder by year-end. - [2026-04-06] Rodríguez's "acting president" mandate was granted by a Supreme Tribunal order explicitly premised on Maduro's temporary "forced absence/kidnapping," with his status still formally "president"; her role under the constitution's succession framework is textually interim and subordinate to resolving Maduro's status, a legal technicality a strict reading of the resolution criteria's "acting/caretaker" exclusion could seize on if conditions change. Source: https://www.wlrn.org/americas/2026-04-06/venezuelas-delcy-rodriguez-remains-acting-president-after-her-initial-90-day-appointment-expired - [2026-10-08] Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello — described by analysts as the "biggest threat" to Rodríguez and someone who "really hates" the United States — is still active and powerful enough to publicly rally PSUV crowds "to continue standing with" Rodríguez, which could reverse quickly; his security apparatus (colectivos, SEBIN-linked networks) and family power base remain intact and independent of her. Source: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5683482-venezuela-leader-rodriguez-trump-ministers/, https://rnv.gob.ve/diosdado-cabello-reaffirms-psuv-support-for-president-delcy-rodriguez/ - [2026-09-15] A second round of formal negotiations opened between the Venezuelan opposition and the ruling government, addressing "dismantling of the repressive apparatus" and political guarantees, with Jorge Rodríguez (not Delcy) as the government's lead negotiator — a sign that a genuine power-sharing or transition mechanism independent of Delcy's personal authority is actively being constructed. Source: https://www.ewtnnews.com/world/americas/venezuela-talks-with-opposition-oil-deal-delcy-rodriguez-in-new-york-and-the-church-s-stance - [2026-10-05/07] Trump publicly praised María Corina Machado ("it's all going to work out") just days after she called her return "urgent" and demanded an election date, a marked rhetorical shift from months of US officials privately urging her to wait — raising the possibility that Washington, which installed and still props up Rodríguez, could pivot its backing before year-end. Source: https://www.riotimesonline.com/venezuela-trump-machado-return-2026/ - [2026-10-06] As of 6 October, Polymarket's sibling contract on Machado priced only a 36% chance of her entering Venezuela by Dec 31, and that figure was already down 13 points in a week — showing real, if currently receding, market-assessed probability of a disruptive opposition return before year-end that could destabilize Rodríguez's position. Source: https://www.riotimesonline.com/venezuela-trump-machado-return-2026/ - [2026-10-08] A Latin Times investigation documents seven failed Machado return attempts, including a US-ordered mid-air reversal of her charter flight in July and Copa Airlines blocking her boarding under threat to its Venezuelan operating rights — evidence that Washington has previously intervened directly in Venezuelan political logistics, meaning a reversal of US posture (e.g., actively facilitating a Machado return) remains a plausible, US-driven path to altering the status quo before Dec 31. Source: https://latintimes.com/rubio-rejects-claims-us-blocking-machado-returning-venezuela-599957 - [2026-10-08] A State Department deputy assistant secretary testified to Congress that Washington is also pressing Caracas directly "to press for guarantees that Machado would not face immediate arrest" on return — an active US diplomatic channel working toward an outcome (Machado's homecoming and political role) that is in tension with indefinite Rodríguez rule. Source: https://latintimes.com/rubio-rejects-claims-us-blocking-machado-returning-venezuela-599957 - [2026-10-07/08] Diosdado Cabello's own public challenge to the opposition "to go to elections" — rather than simply backing Rodríguez's no-date stance — shows internal Chavista jockeying over election timing and tactics that could produce a pact (e.g., Cabello- or Jorge Rodríguez-led arrangement) replacing Delcy as the operative figure without a formal coup. Source: https://www.democrata.es/en/international/diosdado-cabello-calls-to-close-ranks-with-delcy-rodriguez-and-challenges-the-opposition-to-go-to-the-polls/ - [2026 undated] The CRS report on the transition notes the Trump administration specifically "chose to work with Rodríguez" as a stabilization tactic rather than out of commitment to her indefinitely, implying her tenure is explicitly transactional and contingent on US strategic calculus, which could change given shifting US priorities (oil deals, midterm politics, Machado pressure). Source: https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R49186.html - [2026-10-04] Rodríguez herself, speaking to the UN on Sept 23, avoided any election date and has "avoided giving clear signals" for months, which — combined with mounting public rallies and Machado's "urgent" demand — raises visible domestic/international pressure that, while not yet dislodging her, demonstrates the fragility and contested nature of a rule the resolution criteria would need to treat as unambiguous and uncontested at year-end. Source: https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/09/26/venezuelas-president-leaves-us-without-a-deal-or-election-date/ BOTTOM LINE: The NO case rests not on any confirmed displacement — none has occurred — but on three live, dated vulnerabilities: an internal rival (Cabello) with independent security power who could supplant her informally; a recently more favorable US tone toward Machado's return potentially realigning Washington's backing before year-end; and a formal opposition-government negotiation track led by Jorge, not Delcy, Rodríguez. For NO to resolve, one of these threads would have to produce an actual observable shift in who exercises core executive/security authority by Dec 31, which has not yet happened as of Oct 9. NOT FOUND: No confirmed coup attempt, resignation, health incident, or US policy reversal specifically pushing Rodríguez out; no set election date; no evidence Cabello or Jorge Rodríguez has displaced her operationally as of 2026-10-09.