Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?

- [2025-11-05] Taiwan's DPP nominations committee officially selected Legislator Su Chiao-hui as the party's candidate for New Taipei mayor, pending Central Executive Committee approval; a Democratic Progressive Party panel on Wednesday selected Legislator Su Chiao-hui as the party's 2026 nominee in the New Taipei City mayoral election, pending final approval by the party's Central Executive Committee. Source: focustaiwan.tw/politics/202511050020 - [2025-11-26] The DPP formally confirmed Su Chiao-hui as its official candidate: Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party officially named Su Chiao-hui as its candidate for the New Taipei mayoral race . Source: focustaiwan.tw/politics/202511260021 - [2026 (April)] TPP chair Huang Kuo-chang withdrew his own mayoral bid and the KMT and TPP agreed on a joint candidate: Huang suspended his New Taipei mayoral campaign in April 2026, as Lee Shu-chuan became the joint candidate of the KMT and TPP , consolidating the opposition vote behind KMT's Lee Shu-chuan (李四川), a former deputy mayor of Taipei and New Taipei. - [2026-09-24] An NBR analysis characterized the race as tight with Su leading narrowly in some recent polls: despite New Taipei's traditional reputation as a KMT stronghold, polling suggests a tight race, with Su maintaining a modest lead in the latest results. Su is a notably more experienced campaigner, having won multiple elections in New Taipei, whereas Lee is a first-time candidate. - [2026-09-23] A poll commissioned by Shock Media (震傳媒) via 山水民意研究 showed Su narrowly ahead of Lee: the latest poll results show DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui with 38.2% support, slightly ahead of KMT's Lee Shu-chuan at 37.1%, a gap of just 1.1 percentage points . - [2026-10-04] A follow-up poll by the same firm, commissioned by the DPP's New Taipei city council caucus, showed Su's lead widening to nearly 5 points over Lee, according to Yahoo News Taiwan coverage of the survey. - [2026-10-07] In contrast, a KMT-commissioned TVBS poll showed Lee leading Su by 6.7 points: KMT candidate Lee Shu-chuan led with 42.6% support against Su Chiao-hui's 35.9%, a gap of 6.7 percentage points , with the KMT caucus noting four consecutive waves of data from June to September showed the gap holding steady above 6 percentage points . - [2026-10-07] The same KMT poll found Lee leading decisively among self-identified independent/centrist voters, with Lee at 33.9% support versus Su's 21.6% among this group, a 12.3-point gap, widening from 5.8 points in August , and TPP supporters breaking heavily for Lee. - [2026-10-06/07] Su's campaign response to the unfavorable KMT poll was measured, with her spokesperson saying her campaign would take the poll as reference material among various trend lines rather than dismissing it, while also noting improvement in traditionally KMT-leaning areas like Xindian. - [2026-09-25] Su continues active campaigning, including appearing at youth/student forums and public events: DPP New Taipei City mayoral candidate Su Chiao-hui attended an event in the city as part of a student-organized candidate forum series. - [2026-10-03] The Diplomat (Oct. 2026) assessed Su's campaign as outperforming expectations for a DPP candidate in this traditionally KMT city: Su's campaign is leaving a far stronger impression among New Taipei voters than many suspected she would. The race is very close, and a DPP victory would dent KMT confidence heading into 2028 because New Taipei was supposed to be an easy KMT victory. - [2026-10-09] No candidate registration deadline issue found; candidates registered with Taiwan's Central Election Commission by early September 2026, per NBR, with final candidate lists set for October 16, 2026. The vote is scheduled for November 28, 2026, with results typically known same-night/next-day, well before the market's November 29 and June 30, 2027 deadlines. BOTTOM LINE: As of October 9, 2026, polling is genuinely split and volatile depending on the sponsor — pan-green-commissioned polls show Su Chiao-hui narrowly ahead or tied with KMT's Lee Shu-chuan, while pan-blue/KMT-commissioned polls consistently show Lee leading by roughly 5–7 points, especially among independents and TPP voters following the KMT-TPP alliance. This is a genuine toss-up race with momentum claims on both sides but no independent, non-partisan poll decisively settling the question before the November 28 vote. NOT FOUND: No neutral/non-partisan (university or major unaffiliated media) poll from the final two weeks before the election; no CEC (db.cec.gov.tw) official pre-election data (CEC publishes results only post-election); no confirmation of final candidate list after October 16, 2026 registration deadline.

- [2026-09-24] New Taipei has never elected a DPP mayor since becoming a special municipality in 2010; the seat has been held by KMT's Eric Chu (2010, 2014) and Hou Yu-ih (2018, 2022) for all four terms, making this an open-seat race in a traditional KMT stronghold where New Taipei is a long-standing KMT stronghold, with the DPP only having once held its executive leadership role, and the open-seat race comes amid the term-limited departure of Mayor Hou Yu-ih (nbr.org). - [2026-09-24] The reference class of "DPP challenger vs. KMT-TPP unified candidate in open-seat New Taipei race" is itself novel (first time TPP/KMT merged tickets citywide), so there is no direct historical precedent for this exact matchup within the special-municipality era; base rate must instead lean on recent polling trends (nbr.org). - [2024-11-24 historical]: In the broader national pattern, DPP has previously won the predecessor "Taipei County" magistracy four consecutive terms (1989–2001) under Su Tseng-chang and You Ching, per Wikipedia's summary of past results, showing the DPP base is not structurally impossible to activate in this geography, though it has not repeated since the 2010 municipal upgrade (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwanese_municipal_elections,_2018). - [2026-04-28] Party-sanctioned joint primary polling (used to select the KMT-TPP nominee) showed Lee led the Democratic Progressive Party candidate, Legislator Su Chiao-hui, by 34 percent to 28.5 percent in one poll, and 36.3 percent to 24.5 percent in another poll , indicating a mid-single-digit-to-low-double-digit Lee lead in spring 2026 (taipeitimes.com). - [2026-08-19] A mid-campaign poll had Su Chiao-hui trailing in the New Taipei City mayoral race poll by 8.5 points against KMT's Lee Shu-chuan... trailing by 8.5 percentage points behind Lee Shu-chuan , consistent with Lee holding a mid-single-digit-to-high-single-digit lead through the summer (tvbs.com.tw). - [2026-09-01] An independent pollster (Credere/戴立安) reported, for the first time in that series, 民進黨新北市長參選人蘇巧慧以 35.2% 領先中國國民黨籍參選人李四川的 34.7%，雖然只領先 0.5% — a razor-thin DPP lead within margin of error, reversing from a ~10-point Lee lead in January 2026 per the same tracking series. - [2026-09-23] A separate "震傳媒" (Vibe Media) poll showed 民進黨參選人蘇巧慧以約1個百分點的差距，超車領先國民黨對手李四川 , with support at 38.2% vs 37.1%, though 看好李四川當選新北市長的有42.0%、看好蘇巧慧當選的則有36.8% — Lee still led on the separate "who do you think will win" metric even when support was roughly tied. - [2026-10-07] The most recent and largest-sample poll (KMT caucus-commissioned, conducted by TVBS, N=1,210, Sept 29–Oct 3) showed 國民黨參選人李四川支持度42.6%，民進黨參選人蘇巧慧35.9%，雙方差距6.7個百分點，另有19.9%受訪者尚未決定支持對象 , with the KMT noting 和同機構近3個月歷次民調相比，領先趨勢穩定 (lead stable over past 3 months of same-institute polling) — illustrating that partisan-sponsored polls diverge sharply (green-sponsored polls show Su ahead/tied; blue-sponsored polls show Lee up ~6-7 points). - [2026-08-23] A prediction-market aggregator site summarized Polymarket's own contract (not to be treated as this market's current price per instructions) noting thin volume (~$85K) and describing the structural case for Lee resting on Su Chiao-hui holding her DPP primary lead, consolidating pan-green voters, and closing the gap that multiple independent polls have shown; Su would also benefit if cross-party discipline inside the KMT-TPP bloc fractures before election day, or if a late-breaking scandal reshapes the race . - [2026-09-24] Expert commentary (NBR) characterizes the race as genuinely competitive despite historical KMT dominance: Despite New Taipei's traditional reputation as a KMT stronghold, polling suggests a tight race, with Su maintaining a modest lead in the latest results. Su is a notably more experienced campaigner, having won multiple elections in New Taipei, whereas Lee is a first-time candidate — though this assessment predates the October 7 blue-leaning poll showing a renewed 6.7-point Lee lead. - [2026-10-07] Local reporting notes polling divergence itself is a recurring theme this cycle, with DPP-aligned and KMT-aligned pollsters producing opposite leaders by several points within the same week, making poll-of-polls aggregation difficult and underscoring genuine uncertainty rather than a clear front-runner based on polling alone (udn.com, cna.com.tw). BOTTOM LINE: Historically New Taipei has been an uninterrupted KMT stronghold at the special-municipality level (4/4 terms since 2010), giving a strong structural prior against a DPP win; however, current-cycle polling is unusually volatile and close (ranging from Su +1 to Lee +8.5 depending on pollster), with the most recent large-sample survey (Oct 7) showing Lee ahead by 6.7 points and most polls over the campaign placing Lee ahead, suggesting Lee Shu-chuan remains the modest favorite but Su Chiao-hui has a live, non-trivial path if DPP turnout and pan-green consolidation outperform current polling. NOT FOUND: No non-partisan, methodologically independent "poll of polls" or aggregator for this specific race was found; no data on final-stretch (post-Oct 7) polling after candidate registration finalized Oct 16; no historical base rate specifically for "DPP wins after trailing in October polls" in comparable Taiwanese special-municipality races.

YES means: Su Chiao-hui (DPP) is elected and certified as the next Mayor of New Taipei in the November 28, 2026 election, with results known by June 30, 2027. - [2026-10-02] A DPP-city-council-caucus-commissioned poll by 山水民意研究 showed Su Chiao-hui's support continuing to lead Lee Shu-chuan, with the latest poll showing the gap reaching 4.6 percentage points , with Su at 39.1% vs Lee's 34.5%, and crucially those who said they would "definitely vote for Su" outnumbered Lee's equivalent by 9.4 points (48.7% vs 39.3%) — a turnout-intensity signal that raw horse-race numbers miss. (https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E8%98%87%E5%B7%A7%E6%85%A7%E6%93%B4%E5%A4%A7%E9%A0%98%E5%85%88) - [2026-10-01] Respected Japan-based Taiwan elections scholar Ogasawara Yoshiyuki (小笠原欣幸) posted analysis noting that despite 21 years of unbroken KMT rule in New Taipei, the most recent polls show DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui slightly ahead, and with two months left until voting day, the outcome of the election remains undecided . (https://www.storm.mg/article/11169644) - [2026-10-01/05] Former legislator and TV commentator Kuo Cheng-liang (郭正亮), while historically favoring Lee, revised his estimate as the race tightened, stating the gap between Su and Lee has narrowed to within 50,000 votes, and if the KMT loses New Taipei it would be a major defeat , attributing this to Lee's current difficulty being a lack of personal charisma, with his campaign pitch limited to "I get things done," which fails to move ordinary voters and young people . (https://www.storm.mg/article/11169644) - [2026-10-03] Su's organizational strength was underscored by Kuo's observation that Su is the DPP's best-performing candidate this cycle because her father Su Tseng-chang previously served as Taipei County magistrate and Premier, and New Taipei has five Su-faction legislators, giving her campaign inherently strong organization . (https://www.storm.mg/article/11169644) - [2026-10-03] Su held a joint rally with Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen (沈伯洋) in Banqiao — New Taipei's largest electoral district — attended by President Lai Ching-te and former President Tsai Ing-wen appearing on stage together with Su , signaling top-level national party commitment of resources to the race. (https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9791668) - [2026-10-08] A NOWnews analysis identified structural weaknesses in Lee's campaign, describing him as having transformed from a career "sedan-chair carrier" (behind-the-scenes aide) into the "person being carried," noting his team was initially criticized internally as a loosely coordinated "eight-allied-armies" coalition of disparate political factions that took over six months to integrate. (https://www.nownews.com/news/6881665) - [2026-10-07] Lee faced public ridicule after a hot-mic incident in which a media commentator was overheard saying New Taipei's race for Lee "might already be over" (選情可能掛了), to which Lee responded that on October 4 he personally felt the enthusiasm of every supporter whose hand he shook — a controversy that, regardless of Lee's rebuttal, generated days of unfavorable press cycle scrutinizing turnout authenticity at his large October 4 Banqiao rally. (https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/5598756) - [2026-10-08] Lee's October 4 rally, where he appeared with Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu, Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an and outgoing Mayor Hou Yu-ih, was mocked online as an "old blue men's gathering" (老藍男大集合), forcing Lee onto the defensive about age/relevance rather than offense, which several pan-green commentators framed as a sign the KMT campaign is reacting to Su's momentum rather than dictating the race. (https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/NewTaipei/breakingnews/5600355) - [2026-09-24] Even Kuo Cheng-liang, while still giving a narrow edge to Lee, conceded Su is a stronger opponent than Taipei's Puma Shen, so Lee's campaign genuinely needs to work harder , and flagged that Lee's low conversion rate among TPP supporters (just 59.3% in one internal readout) was a vulnerability requiring urgent coalition repair with TPP chair Huang Kuo-chang. (https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E6%96%B0%E5%8C%97%E5%B8%82%E6%81%90%E5%B7%AE5%E8%90%AC%E7%A5%A8%E5%85%A7) - [2026-10-02] Pan-green reporting noted Su's favorability metrics outperforming Lee's even where name recognition was comparable, with Su's net approval at 68.3% compared to Lee's 63.5% , suggesting a likability advantage that could matter in a low-information, high-undecided race (19.9% undecided per the Oct 7 KMT poll already in the base-rate report). BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is continued momentum visible in all pan-green-commissioned polling (Su ahead by 1.1–4.6 points across three separate September–October surveys) combined with structural advantages — superior personal favorability, strong inherited DPP organizational machinery in New Taipei, and visible cracks in Lee's campaign cohesion and charisma — that, if they persist and DPP turnout operations outperform modeled assumptions, could let Su overcome New Taipei's 21-year KMT incumbency streak in what even hostile analysts now call a single-digit, decided-by-turnout race. NOT FOUND: No non-partisan post-October-7 poll to arbitrate between the diverging green/blue surveys; no confirmed data on Su's standing among the 19.9%–20% of undecided voters who will likely decide the outcome; no verified mobilization/ground-game metrics (GOTV call volume, volunteer counts) for either campaign.

YES means: Su Chiao-hui wins the New Taipei mayoral election held November 28, 2026, and becomes (non-interim) Mayor of New Taipei (i.e., the market resolves "No" on this question if Lee Shu-chuan wins, if the result remains unclear/undetermined, or if any other outcome occurs that isn't a confirmed Su victory by June 30, 2027). - [2026-10-07] The largest, most recent sample poll (KMT caucus-commissioned, TVBS, N=1,210, Sept 29–Oct 3) shows 國民黨參選人李四川支持度42.6%，民進黨參選人蘇巧慧35.9%，雙方差距6.7個百分點，另有19.9%受訪者尚未決定支持對象 , and the same methodology/pollster shows the Lee lead has been stable for four months: 根據過去TVBS民調中心所做的調查，李四川從6月到9月，分別領先6.2%、6.9%、6.7%、6.7%，呈現穩定超前趨勢 — a notably steady trendline rather than a one-off outlier. - [2026-10-07] Among the decisive centrist bloc, Lee's advantage is widening, not narrowing: 至於影響選戰最關鍵的「中間選民」部分，有33.9%支持李四川，領先蘇巧慧的21.6%，多達12.3%，比起8月的5.8%的差距，再進一步擴大6.5% , and TPP voters have consolidated hard behind Lee despite a local KMT-TPP alliance hiccup in Hsinchu: 民眾黨支持者已有77.8%支持川伯，只有1.8%支持蘇巧慧，新北「藍白合」已經不受竹北市長風波影響 . - [2026-10-07] On the "who do you think will actually win" metric — often a better predictor than raw support — Lee leads by double digits: 選戰看好度部分，李四川為38%，蘇巧慧為27.5%，領先10.5% , and he also edges Su on personal favorability, 個人評價喜歡程度，李四川為5.9分，也優於蘇巧慧的5.4分 . - [2026-09-25] Even analysts noting the one green-leaning poll showing Su narrowly ahead caution it is an outlier: pundit Shen Cheng-nan concluded that pooling multiple media polls over several months, 李四川還是贏面較大。盤點幾家民調，僅一家是蘇巧慧明顯領先，其餘家不是打平，就是李四川明顯領先 , attributing this to New Taipei's structural pan-blue/pan-white bloc being larger than the pan-green bloc and to centrist voters' historically lower turnout. - [2026-09-25] That same green-leaning outlier poll (震傳媒, Sept 20–21) had itself shown Lee leading by nearly 5 points as recently as April: 震傳媒4月民調顯示，李四川當時領先蘇巧慧4.8個百分點，主要在中間選民部分，李四川領先14個百分點 , indicating the "Su surge" narrative rests on a single volatile data series rather than a consistent trend. - [2026-10-07] Geographically, Lee has cut into traditionally DPP-leaning turf (Sanchong/Xinzhuang) by double digits while only modestly ceding ground in a few traditional blue strongholds: 三重新莊（綠營優勢區）李四川領先到10.8%，比上次5%還要擴大近一倍 , and even where Su gained (Xindian/Shenkeng), she remains behind: 在「鐵藍區」的新店深坑...蘇巧慧拉近到僅落後3.4% . - [2026-10-07] Base partisans have "come home" to their own camps on both sides, per the KMT poll, but the KMT's own base is larger and more consolidated: 國民黨有83.7%力挺李四川，民進黨支持者則有90.6%支持蘇，顯示「政黨已經藍綠歸隊」 — meaning the race may increasingly hinge on base turnout in a city whose registered partisan tilt has historically favored the KMT bloc. - [2022-11-26] Status-quo inertia is extreme at the structural level: in the last New Taipei mayoral election, KMT's Hou Yu-ih won by a landslide, 侯友宜以1,152,555票、得票率62.42%，大勝林佳龍693,976票、得票率37.58%，兩人差距45萬8,579票 , sweeping 新北市29區全勝，也是自新北市改制後4屆市長選舉以來首見 — the fourth consecutive KMT special-municipality victory with zero DPP wins since 2010, the deepest structural prior against a Su win. - [2026-10-07] Su's own campaign has not disputed the KMT poll's substance, responding only that it will be weighed among various data points: 蘇巧慧競辦表示，會綜合各家民調趨勢做參考 — a defensive, non-combative response consistent with trailing-campaign messaging rather than momentum-driven confidence. - [2026 mechanism] Timeline risk is low for a Su win being delayed past deadlines (vote counted same-night per Taiwan's normal practice), but that only matters if Su wins outright; the stronger NO case is simply that she is trailing in the largest, most methodologically robust and most recent survey, with the trend holding for four months and centrist/TPP voters increasingly consolidating against her. BOTTOM LINE: The most recent, largest-sample poll (Oct 7, TVBS/KMT-commissioned, N=1,210) shows Lee Shu-chuan leading Su Chiao-hui by 6.7 points with a four-month stable trend and a widening centrist-voter gap, reinforcing New Taipei's unbroken KMT win streak since 2010 (including a 2022 25-point landslide); absent a reversal in the final weeks, the structural and most-recent-polling evidence favors a NO resolution (Lee wins, not Su). NOT FOUND: No non-partisan/university poll from the final two weeks before the Nov 28 vote; no confirmation of final candidate registration list after the Oct 16, 2026 deadline; no evidence of any scandal or event since Oct 7 that would reverse the KMT poll's trend.