Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?

- [2026-09-06] Most recent confirmed small-body Earth impact: asteroid 2026 RW1 (~0.8–0.9 m) struck over the Indian Ocean after being detected by the Mt. Lemmon Survey; it was identified on 2026-9-6, detected 7 hours 22 minutes before impact, and fell in the Indian Ocean — energy far below 10 kt (sub-meter objects typically release well under 1 kt). (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predicted_asteroid_impacts_on_Earth) - [2026-09-10] A bright bolide/fireball was recorded over the Atlantic Ocean; NASA sensors measured an impact energy of roughly 330 tons of TNT, entering the atmosphere at about 19 km/s — i.e. 0.33 kt, ~30x below the 10 kt threshold. (asteroidalerts.com) - [2026-09-06] Per the CNEOS-derived Wikipedia impact-prediction log, as of September 2026 all of the asteroids with predicted impacts were under 10 m in size... and burned up in the atmosphere as meteors , none reaching 10 kt. (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predicted_asteroid_impacts_on_Earth) - [2026-03-08] A meter-scale meteoroid produced the "Koblenz meteor" over Germany, with fragments damaging a residential roof; the meteor, estimated up to a few meters in diameter, disintegrated in an air burst at about 50 km altitude and scattered meteorite fragments across western Germany — a notable fireball but of modest (sub-kt to low-kt) energy, not a 10 kt-class event. (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Koblenz_meteor) - [2026-03-05] NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, using JWST data, ruled out even a lunar impact for asteroid 2024 YR4 in 2032, reporting 2024 YR4 is expected to pass by the Moon at a distance of 13,200 miles (21,200 km), and lunar impact is no longer a possibility — the Earth-impact risk for this ~40–90 m object had already been reduced to near-zero (0.0017%–0.28% peak estimates) in Feb 2025. (science.nasa.gov; britannica.com) - [2026-09-21] A roundup of NASA Planetary Defense updates confirms NASA says new observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 have reduced the asteroid impact probability for Earth to 0.28% for its Dec. 22, 2032 close approach (figure is from the Feb 2025 analysis, since superseded by further reductions and the 2026 lunar-impact ruling-out). (eciks.org) - [2026-10-07] Wikipedia's current Apophis summary states Apophis is expected to approach Earth in 2029, 2036, and 2068, and radar observations and orbit analysis showed it will not hit our planet in either case; any chance of impact is ruled out for at least the next 100 years , so the next major close-approach object (Apophis, April 13, 2029) poses no impact risk before the market's Jan 1, 2030 close. (starwalk.space) - [2026 (ongoing)] No object is currently listed by NASA/ESA as carrying a near-term non-trivial Earth-impact probability for any date before 2030; CNEOS's Sentry risk table and ESA's risk list (per prior web reports on 2024 YR4) are the primary trackers and currently show no 10 kt+ class threat before 2030. - [2026-10-01] CNEOS's Fireball and Bolide Data page (cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/) is the standard reference used by adjacent markets (e.g., a sibling Polymarket "Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026" contract) for the "Impact Energy (kt)" field; the primary resolution source is the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository, with impact energy drawn from the "Impact Energy (kt)" column , and this repository's largest 2026 entries remain sub-kiloton to date. (polymarket.com) - [2026-04-01] A sibling 2026-dated contract ("1-megaton meteor strike in 2026") was trading on thin liquidity; the article notes CNEOS catalogs show no known object on an Earth-intercept trajectory at this scale in 2026 , reinforcing that no large (megaton, let alone kiloton-threshold) impactor is currently tracked. (lines.com) - [Historical benchmark] The last confirmed impact event anywhere near the 10 kt threshold was the Chelyabinsk airburst (Feb 2013, ~400-500 kt) and the Kamchatka bolide (Dec 2018, ~173 kt) — both were not predicted in advance and both predate this question's opening; an asteroid roughly 10 meters in diameter entered the atmosphere... with a TNT equivalent energy of 173 kilotons in the Kamchatka case, illustrating that 10 kt+ events, while rare, do occur roughly once every several years to decade on a base-rate basis. (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamchatka_meteor) BOTTOM LINE: As of October 2026, no 10-kiloton-or-greater meteor/bolide impact has occurred, and no currently tracked near-Earth object (including Apophis's 2029 flyby and 2024 YR4, both now ruled out for impact) poses a known collision risk before Jan 1, 2030; the only recent confirmed impacts/fireballs (Koblenz, Atlantic bolide, 2026 RW1) were all well below the 10 kt threshold, so resolution to "Yes" would require a statistically rare, currently undetected object striking before the deadline. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any currently cataloged asteroid or comet with a non-negligible (>0.1%) impact probability for any date between now and Jan 1, 2030; no official NASA/ESA statement forecasting an imminent 10 kt+ impact; could not find a resolution-specific CNEOS Sentry table snapshot dated within the last 30 days (site requires live/interactive access beyond fetch).

- [2013-02-15] The Chelyabinsk superbolide over Russia released an estimated approximate total impact energy of the Chelyabinsk Fireball, in kilotons of TNT explosives, of 440 kilotons , the largest confirmed event in NASA's modern fireball record. https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/additional-details-on-the-large-feb-15-fireball-over-russia/ - [2013-11-06] NASA's near-Earth-object lead stated "We would expect an event of this magnitude to occur once every 100 years on average" , giving an official base-rate anchor for ~400+kt events, well above the 10kt Kalshi threshold. https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/additional-details-on-the-large-feb-15-fireball-over-russia/ - [2014-11-06] A peer-reviewed Nature study of the Chelyabinsk airburst concluded that a global survey of airbursts of a kiloton or more (including Chelyabinsk) finds the number of impactors with diameters of tens of metres may be an order of magnitude higher than earlier estimates , implying 10kt+ events are more frequent than classical models predicted. https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12741 - [2024 (ongoing)] An independent statistical analysis of the CNEOS catalogue estimates an average recurrence period of one ≥440 kt event every 80 years and one ≥15,000 kt event every 1,100 years for Chelyabinsk- and Tunguska-like impacts, respectively — these are well above the 10kt line, so 10kt-class events (the market's threshold) are necessarily more frequent than once-per-80-years. - [2018-12-18] The "Kamchatka"/Bering Sea meteor is the most recent unambiguous >10kt event in the global record (~173kt, satellite-detected); Wikipedia's entry on a later, smaller bolide confirms it was the most energetic fireball to happen anywhere on Earth (sea or land) since December 2018, when a more energetic fireball was observed over the Bering Sea . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_China_bolide - [2020-12-23] The next-largest subsequent event, the "Great Chinese Fireball," registered only Impact energy: 9.5 kiloton — just under the 10kt market threshold, illustrating how close recent events have come without crossing it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_China_bolide - [2023-05-20 to 2024-07-20] Subsequent "record" fireballs have been far smaller: a 2024 Antarctica event was the strongest fireball reported by CNEOS since May 20, 2023, when a 7.2 kt event was detected over Queensland, Australia , and itself was only 5.1 kilotons — both below the 10kt line. https://watchers.news/2024/07/22/rare-fireball-detected-over-antarctica-with-an-impact-energy-of-5-1-kilotons/ - [2025-09-09] The most recent notable fireball (off Brazil) was only 0.44kt, and CNEOS's 2025-to-date record shows several fireballs with energies exceeding 1 kiloton since the start of 2025, including a 2.4 kt event over the Pacific Ocean on March 27, a 1.8 kt airburst over the Indian Ocean on March 13, a 1.6 kt fireball near southern Japan on August 19, and a 1.0 kt event above central Mexico on May 31 — none close to the 10kt threshold. https://watchers.news/2025/09/10/bright-daylight-fireball-ceara-brazil-0-44-kilotons-airburst/ - [general/reference] ATLAS (University of Hawaii survey project) states asteroid impacts larger than 10 meters (30 feet, 10 kiloton explosion) are much less frequent, arriving once every few years and may sometimes punch down to the ground , giving a rough outside-view base rate of roughly one qualifying (≥10kt) event every few years globally. https://atlas.fallingstar.com/danger.php - [general/reference] The same source and NRC-based figures reiterate that the "K-T Impactor" that killed the dinosaurs ... is expected to happen every 100 million years while asteroid impacts larger than 10 meters ... are much less frequent, arriving once every few years — confirming the 10kt class is orders of magnitude more common than mass-extinction-class events, so the "few years" recurrence is the relevant reference class for this market. https://atlas.fallingstar.com/danger.php BOTTOM LINE: The outside-view base rate for a ≥10kt airburst (the market's threshold) is roughly "once every few years" according to NASA-linked and academic sources, with confirmed qualifying events in 2013 (440kt) and 2018 (~173kt) but none clearly confirmed since late 2018 through October 2026 (the closest, a 2020 China bolide, was 9.5kt, just under threshold). This ~8-year gap since the last confirmed ≥10kt event is longer than the historical "few years" interval, so base rates alone suggest the window to 2030 (about 3.3 more years from today) carries a non-trivial, but modest, chance of a qualifying event, broadly consistent with a "several-year recurrence, not yet overdue to a high degree" picture. NOT FOUND: No official Kalshi-specific forecaster poll or track record; no single authoritative, continuously updated "time since last ≥10kt impact" tracker (compiled this from individual CNEOS/Wikipedia event reports); no formal probability estimate from NASA/ESA explicitly bounded to the 2026–2030 window for the ≥10kt threshold.

YES means: a meteor/bolide airburst or impact releasing ≥10 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy occurs somewhere on Earth before 2030-01-01, as measured/estimated by CNEOS or equivalent trackers. - [2016-02-06] A previously under-recognized confirmed qualifying event: a fireball over the South Atlantic released energy equivalent to around 12,000 tonnes of TNT , detonating about 30 km above the ocean — a genuine ≥10 kt event that occurred just three years after Chelyabinsk, showing qualifying strikes are not confined to the 2013/2018 cases already cited by colleagues. https://www.sciencealert.com/the-largest-fireball-since-chelyabinsk-exploded-over-the-atlantic-but-nobody-saw-it - [2016-02-06] Crucially, this 13 kt-class event was undetected until after the fact: NASA scientists only know about it thanks to details disclosed by the US military , confirming that qualifying-size impactors can strike with zero advance warning from the normal NEO-survey pipeline. https://www.sciencealert.com/the-largest-fireball-since-chelyabinsk-exploded-over-the-atlantic-but-nobody-saw-it - [2026 (current)] Per Wikipedia's Sentry system page, the risk catalog is dominated by exactly the size class capable of 10 kt-class airbursts: roughly 1400 of these risk-listed near-Earth asteroids are estimated to be about the size of the Chelyabinsk meteor or smaller , and about 99% of the objects on the risk table are less than roughly 140 meters in diameter — the qualifying threat population is numerous and mostly sub-radar. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentry_(monitoring_system) - [2025 (current estimate)] NASA's planetary-defense population model shows the detection gap is largest exactly where 10 kt-class impactors live: for 140-meter "city killers" of the roughly 25,000 city killers predicted to exist, less than half have been spotted , and for the still-smaller 50-meter class when it comes to the expected 230,000 or so 50-meter asteroids, the number falls below 10% . https://www.science.org/content/article/nasa-telescope-will-hunt-down-city-killer-asteroids - [2018 (NASA statement, still the operative figure)] The true "ammunition" for 10 kt-class events is even smaller and almost entirely unmapped: there are likely tens of millions of such space rocks between 33 feet and 65 feet (10 to 20 meters) in diameter , per NASA's then-planetary defense officer — objects in exactly the size range that produced Chelyabinsk (≈18–19 m) and the 2016 Atlantic event. https://www.space.com/40239-near-earth-asteroid-detection-space-telescope.html - [2026-10-07] Even the official Sentry table confirms detection is typically last-minute for small bodies: the highest-probability object currently listed, 2010 RF12, is 2010 RF12 is the asteroid with greatest probability (10%) of impacting Earth, but is only ~7 meters in diameter — illustrating that probability estimates for small, qualifying-adjacent objects are inherently volatile and can jump quickly with new data, as 2024 YR4 did before being ruled out. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentry_(monitoring_system) - [2026-09-06] This same last-minute pattern held for the most recent confirmed impactor: asteroid 2026 RW1 was found and struck within hours, consistent with the pattern that 10–20 m class objects are typically detected (if at all) only hours before impact, not years — meaning a 10 kt+ impactor could be first discovered mere hours before, or only confirmed after, the event. (per colleague's Sept 6 report; corroborated by Sentry's short observation-arc pattern) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentry_(monitoring_system) - [2025-02-19] The 2024 YR4 episode demonstrates how fast risk assessments can swing for objects this large: probability moved from near-zero to NASA's latest calculations estimate the impact probability at 3.1 percent, with a potential Earth impact date of December 22, 2032 within weeks of discovery, showing that a new as-yet-undiscovered object could similarly be found, flagged, and re-flagged with rising odds inside the 2026–2030 window — the operative risk channel for a YES resolution is discovery of a new object, not tracking of a known one. https://phys.org/news/2025-02-city-killer-asteroid-chance-earth.html - [2024-10 (study)] An academic recurrence-interval analysis reinforces that events just below and at the 10 kt-adjacent "city killer" scale are not negligibly rare on policy-relevant timescales: the chance of an asteroid greater than 140 meters hitting the Earth is more likely than both the chance of an individual being struck by lightning—or attacked by a coyote... the estimated impact frequency for NEOs larger than 140 meters is about one every 11,000 years — far less frequent than true 10 kt threshold objects (tens-of-meters class), underscoring that the true qualifying-size recurrence (already estimated by colleagues at "every few years") is driven by a population orders of magnitude more populous and poorly surveyed. https://www.newsweek.com/killer-asteroid-impact-odds-earth-causes-death-2112762 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is not a currently tracked named asteroid (all known candidates through 2030 have been ruled out or carry negligible probability) but an as-yet-undiscovered 10–20 m object — a population numbering in the tens of millions and less than 10% surveyed at 50 m and below — striking with little or no warning, exactly as occurred with the 2016 Atlantic 13 kt fireball and the 2013 Chelyabinsk event; given a historical cadence of qualifying (≥10 kt) events roughly every few years and an unusually long gap since 2018, the 2026–2030 window carries a genuine, non-negligible chance of such a surprise strike. NOT FOUND: No official NASA/ESA numerical probability estimate specifically bounding "probability of a ≥10 kt undiscovered-object impact between 2026 and 2030"; no evidence of any currently known object with meaningful impact odds before 2030.

YES means: a natural meteor/bolide/small-body airburst or impact with total energy ≥10 kilotons TNT-equivalent is confirmed (via CNEOS/NASA, ESA, IAWN or equivalent) to strike Earth at any point between 2025-06-06 and 2030-01-01. - [2026-10-09] NASA's Sentry Impact Risk Table — the authoritative 100-year forward monitoring list — shows its highest-probability entries are tiny, long-horizon objects: 2010 RF12 has a 10% cumulative impact probability but only around a 7-meter diameter, with its date of greatest risk in 2095-09-05 , and only about 21 objects in the entire table exceed 140 meters (potentially hazardous size), while the average listed object is just 120 meters with an average probability near 1-in-500 — none of these high-probability virtual impactors falls before 2030. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentry_(monitoring_system) - [2026-10-09] A cross-check (NEOForCE) of the Sentry-II catalog against an independent orbital-sampling method, using a September 9, 2025 CNEOS snapshot, found the same handful of long-tracked low-probability objects (2000 SG344, 2005 QK76, 2008 JL3, 2023 DO, and 2008 EX5) and confirmed Sentry-II's robustness, recovering almost all possible collisions above 10⁻⁷ probability — no new near-term (pre-2030) threat emerged from this independent audit. https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/pdf/2026/03/aa57657-25.pdf - [2026-10-09] The one Sentry-listed object with virtual "impact" dates inside the market window, 2000 SG344, in fact has confirmed safe close-approach distances of 2,931,689 km on 2028-May-07 and 5,121,080 km on 2030-Sep-22 — these are benign flybys, not impact scenarios, underscoring that no cataloged body threatens Earth before the 2030-01-01 close. - [2026-10-09] A sibling Polymarket contract specifically for a 10-kiloton-or-greater strike within calendar 2026 alone (a strictly easier bar than this question's full 2025–2030 window) is currently priced at only 11% implied "Yes," with related contracts for 100kt and 1-megaton strikes in 2026 at 4% and 2% respectively — all reflecting no detected large-object threat. https://polymarket.com/event/5kt-meteor-strike-in-2026 - [2026-10-09] Even the lower 5-kiloton threshold sibling market for 2026 (half the Kalshi bar) trades at only 25% implied "Yes" with $312,169 traded, and its own market-context notes no 5kt-scale bolide has been confirmed through early September 2026, supporting the market's elevated "No" pricing, since NASA/CNEOS and ESA report no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering 5 kilotons by year-end . https://polymarket.com/event/5kt-meteor-strike-in-2026 - [2026-06-05] A full-catalog scrape of the CNEOS fireball database (1,000+ events back to the 1990s) shows 2026's largest tracked entries are minor: e.g., the May 30, 2026 Boston-area fireball registered only 1.1 kt impact energy , two orders of magnitude under the 10kt threshold. https://apify.com/parseforge/jpl-fireball-events-scraper - [2026-08-15] An independent calibration study of the CNEOS fireball catalog (snapshot dated Aug 15, 2026) processed 1,069 public entries and found all event dates and twelve public source fields unchanged from the preserved snapshot, with 354 carrying the complete data needed for orbit determination — none flagged as a 10kt+ class event; the catalog's "strongest post-2018 anomaly," the April 1, 2026 South Atlantic fireball, was itself sub-kiloton. https://arxiv.org/html/2609.06745 - [2026-04-01] A peer-reviewed multi-sensor study of that same April 1, 2026 South Atlantic fireball — the most scrutinized 2026 event — used independent GOES-GLM/MTG-LI lightning-imager stereo triangulation, illustrating how rigorously any genuine large bolide would be cross-confirmed; its radiated energy corresponded to a trivial impact energy, far below 10kt. https://www.osti.gov/pages/servlets/purl/3378004 - [2026-06-04] Independent astrophysical analysis (Loeb & Cloete) of that same event, designated "Polar-IM," computed its reported radiated energy of 2.4 × 10^10 J and a calculated impact energy of 0.086 kt — roughly 1/120th of the 10kt threshold, despite being the most publicized 2026 bolide case. https://watchers.news/2026/06/04/researchers-identify-south-atlantic-fireball-as-likely-interstellar-meteor/ - [2024-07-20] Historical pattern search confirms no event has cleared even half the 10kt bar since the 2020 China bolide (9.5kt): the next "record" fireball after that, in July 2024, reached only 5.1 kilotons, the strongest fireball reported by CNEOS since a 7.2 kt event over Queensland, Australia in May 2023 , and subsequent 2024–2026 detections (Brazil 1.5kt, Brazil 0.44kt, Argentina 0.38kt, Boston 1.1kt, Polar-IM 0.086kt) have trended smaller still, not larger. https://watchers.news/2024/07/22/rare-fireball-detected-over-antarctica-with-an-impact-energy-of-5-1-kilotons/ - [2026-10-09] No Sentry-listed object has a Torino Scale rating above 0 (the public "noteworthy" threshold) at present, and most objects in the Sentry Risk Table have an observation arc of less than 14 days, making their positions highly uncertain — meaning the catalog's near-term entries are chronically low-confidence, further reducing (not raising) the odds any currently flagged object actually strikes before 2030. BOTTOM LINE: Every primary tracking system (CNEOS Sentry, the CNEOS fireball/bolide archive, and independent academic audits through October 2026) shows zero objects with a credible, dated impact risk before 2030, and even markets pricing the much narrower bar of a 2026-only 10kt+ or 5kt+ strike sit at just 11% and 25% "Yes" — consistent with status-quo inertia continuing to produce a NO resolution absent a statistically rare, undetected impactor. NOT FOUND: No CNEOS Sentry snapshot explicitly filtered to show zero/near-zero cumulative probability across all objects for the 2025–2030 window specifically; no official NASA/ESA statement quantifying "probability of an undetected 10kt+ impactor by 2030"; could not independently verify the current live CNEOS fireball table's single highest 2026 entry beyond the May 30 Boston 1.1kt case.