Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 76 million short tons?

- [2026-04-02] EIA's Quarterly Coal Report (Jan–Mar 2026, released July 2026) Table 2 shows West Virginia Q1 2026 production of 19,866 thousand short tons, down 7.2% from Q1 2025's 21,402 thousand short tons. https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/pdf/t2p01p1.pdf - [2026-04-02] EIA's Quarterly Coal Report (Oct–Dec 2025, released April 2026) shows full-year 2025 West Virginia total production was 81,818 thousand short tons for 2025 versus 79,533 for 2024, a 2.9% increase , confirming 2025 WV output was 81.8 million short tons. https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/archive/012125q4.pdf - [2025-11-00] EIA's Annual Coal Report 2024 confirms West Virginia's production decreased 5.9% to 79.5 MMst in 2024, the baseline prior-year comparison. https://www.eia.gov/coal/annual/pdf/acr.pdf - [2026-09-17] EIA Weekly Coal Production data for the week ending Sept 12, 2026 shows West Virginia produced 1,514 thousand short tons in the week... Northern West Virginia contributed 878 thousand short tons... while Southern West Virginia contributed 636 thousand short tons . https://www.indexbox.io/blog/us-weekly-coal-output-falls-to-9816-thousand-short-tons/ - [2026-09-24] EIA Weekly Coal Production for the week ending Sept 19, 2026 shows cumulative year-to-date West Virginia total was 59,118 thousand short tons compared with 59,339 thousand short tons, a decline of 0.4 percent versus the same period in 2025. https://www.indexbox.io/blog/us-weekly-coal-output-rises-from-prior-week-but-trails-year-ago-level/ - [2026-09-24] The same release notes Wyoming remained the largest producer at 4,085 thousand short tons, followed by Northern West Virginia at 864 thousand short tons... Southern West Virginia at 644 thousand short tons for that week, indicating combined WV weekly runs near 1.5 MMst. https://www.indexbox.io/blog/us-weekly-coal-output-rises-from-prior-week-but-trails-year-ago-level/ - [2026-08-21] A trade newsletter compiling EIA/WVCA weekly data for the week ending Aug 15, 2026 reported West Virginia production rose 5.6 percent week-over-week to 1,540 KST but remains 3.3 percent below the same week last year and 6.4 percent behind on a year-to-date basis . https://www.energycentral.com/energy-biz/post/coal-currents-weekly-intelligence-for-the-u-s-coal-industry-gsvwwZlMTMNqGLC - [2026-09-11] A similar compilation for the week ending Aug 29, 2026 showed the state's combined total of 1,611 KST is up 3.2% year-over-year. Year-to-date West Virginia production of 51,633 KST trails 2025's pace by 5.8% , with the Central Appalachia (southern WV) side driving most of the shortfall. https://americascoal.substack.com/p/coal-currents-us-coal-production - [2026-09-09] West Virginia's own state mine-safety office reports cumulative 2026 production (through Q2, latest quarter with full data reported) of Underground: 52,740,543 Surface: 7,035,905 Total Tonnage: 59,776,448 short tons (note: this total includes some non-EIA-classified tonnage and is roughly consistent with EIA's YTD figures). https://minesafety.wv.gov/summary-production-employees-accidents-summary/ - [2026-07-00] EIA's Quarterly Coal Report Table 1 confirms the U.S. national total for Q1 2026 was 131,870 thousand short tons, consistent with the state-level Q1 WV figure of 19,866 thousand short tons reported in the same release. https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/pdf/qcr-all.pdf - [2026-10-01] EIA's Quarterly Coal Report (Q2 2026, covering April-June) is scheduled for release around October 1, 2026, per the EIA coal data release calendar, which will provide the first-half 2026 WV total; this report had not yet been located with state-level figures in search results as of this research. https://www.eia.gov/coal/data.php NOT FOUND: The exact EIA Quarterly Coal Report Table 2 figure for West Virginia Q2 2026 (April–June) production, and any Q3 2026 quarterly total; these were not located in available search snippets despite the Q2 2026 QCR appearing to have been released (other tables from it were found, e.g., Table 42, but not the state production table). BOTTOM LINE: Through the week ending September 19, 2026, West Virginia's cumulative coal production stood at roughly 59.1 million short tons, running only about 0.4–6% behind 2025's pace (a year that finished at 81.8 million short tons); even accounting for the observed year-over-year softness, extrapolating the current weekly run-rate (~1.5 MMst/week) through year-end implies a full-year 2026 total in the high-70s to low-80s million short tons, comfortably clearing the 76 million short ton threshold absent a sharp, sustained production collapse in Q4.

- [2026-04-xx] Official EIA Quarterly Coal Report (Oct-Dec 2025 issue, Table 2) shows West Virginia Total production for October-December 2025 was 20,213 thousand short tons, with year-to-date (full-year 2025) production of 81,818 thousand short tons versus 79,533 thousand short tons in 2024, a 2.9% increase . This confirms full-year 2025 WV production (~81.8 MMst) was comfortably above the 76 MMst threshold. Source: https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/archive/012125q4.pdf - [2025-11-xx] EIA's Annual Coal Report 2024 states West Virginia's production decreased 5.9% to 79.5 MMst in 2024 , the lowest annual total in the recent run, yet still ~3.5 MMst above the 76 MMst strike. Source: https://www.eia.gov/coal/annual/pdf/acr.pdf - [2026-10-xx] The most recent official quarterly data (April-June 2026 Quarterly Coal Report, Table 2) show West Virginia Total production of 21,972 thousand short tons in April-June 2026, with year-to-date (H1 2026) production of 41,838 thousand short tons versus 41,762 thousand short tons in H1 2025, a 0.2% increase , with Northern West Virginia up 8.1% year-to-date while Southern West Virginia fell 9.1% year-to-date . This is essentially flat year-on-year at the half-year mark. Source: https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/pdf/t2p01p1.pdf - [2026-09-13] Higher-frequency (weekly, preliminary) estimates compiled from EIA data by industry trackers show a weaker picture later in the year: one tracker reported West Virginia production rose 5.6 percent week-over-week to 1,540 KST but remains 3.3 percent below the same week last year and 6.4 percent behind on a year-to-date basis as of mid-August 2026, and Central Appalachia's reading was off 10.8 percent year-to-date while Northern Appalachia held up better. - [2026-09-11] A similar weekly tracker for late August 2026 reported the state's combined total of 1,611 KST is up 3.2% year-over-year, but year-to-date West Virginia production of 51,633 KST trails 2025's pace by 5.8%, with the CAPP side of the state carrying nearly all of that decline . These weekly estimates (based on railcar-loading proxies) are less authoritative than the quarterly MSHA-based data but suggest some deceleration versus 2025's pace in the second half of the year. - [2026-10-02] A late-September weekly report notes continuing national softness: Northern West Virginia climbed 7% to 35,051 thousand short tons year-to-date... while Southern West Virginia decreased 8.7%, to 25,603 thousand short tons — summing to roughly 60.6 MMst YTD through late September, which if annualized at a similar pace would still land well above 76 MMst for the full year. - [2026-10-04] EIA's October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook national coal forecast (via secondary report) states coal output in 2026 is forecast at 521.4 million short tons, down 1.32% from a year earlier... Appalachian coal output in 2026 is estimated at 162.7 million short tons, up 1.69% year on year , implying Appalachia (where WV is the largest producer) is expected to be flat-to-slightly-up in 2026, not collapsing. - [2026-10-04] The September 2026 STEO text itself states coal production [will] fall from 528 million short tons (MMst) in 2025 to 516 MMst in 2026... Smaller changes are expected in the Appalachian region, where production in 2026 remains relatively flat before declining by about 2% in 2027 , reinforcing that the national decline is concentrated in the Western (Powder River Basin) region, not Appalachia/WV. - [2020-ongoing] Historical base rate: WV annual production has stayed well above 76 MMst in essentially every recent year — total coal production came to nearly 81 million short tons in 2021... production has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, which totaled nearly 98 million tons in 2019 , and production in 2022 was on track to reach almost 84 million tons ; 2023 came in at 84.6 MMst . Only the single-year trough in 2020 (COVID) fell close to or possibly below 76 MMst; every other year since 2015 has cleared it comfortably. - [2017-ongoing] Independent academic forecasting (WVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research) has historically projected WV production staying in the "mid-80 million-ton range" through the mid-2020s, only falling toward the mid-80 million-ton range in 2025 down to roughly 78 million tons in 2040 — i.e., even long-run structural-decline forecasts don't expect WV to fall below 76 MMst until well after 2026. BOTTOM LINE: The reference class strongly favors "Yes": WV has exceeded 76 MMst in every full year on record except the 2020 pandemic trough, actual 2025 production (81.8 MMst) cleared the bar by over 5 MMst, and official H1-2026 MSHA/EIA data show production essentially flat year-over-year (+0.2%) even though some higher-frequency weekly trackers suggest a modest (~5-6%) second-half deceleration concentrated in Central Appalachia (southern WV). Even a mid-single-digit full-year decline from 2025's 81.8 MMst would still leave 2026 production comfortably above the 76 MMst strike. NOT FOUND: No official EIA full-year 2026 figure exists yet (resolution awaits the first Quarterly Coal Report with complete 2026 data, expected ~April 2027); no dedicated prediction-market or analyst poll specifically forecasting WV's exact 2026 tonnage was found; could not confirm whether 2020 (COVID trough) WV production actually fell below 76 MMst (it was noted as a sharp decline year but exact figure wasn't retrieved).

YES means: EIA's first Quarterly Coal Report containing full-year 2026 data (expected ~April 2027) shows West Virginia's Table 2 "West Virginia Total" for calendar 2026 above 76,000 thousand short tons (76 MMst). - [2026-10-01] EIA's own Quarterly Coal Report Table 2 (April-June 2026, the most current official primary release) shows West Virginia Total production of 21,972 thousand short tons in April-June 2026, with year-to-date (H1 2026) production of 41,838 thousand short tons versus 41,762 thousand short tons in H1 2025, a 0.2% increase , confirming WV output is essentially flat, not collapsing, at the official mid-year mark. https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/pdf/t2p01p1.pdf - [2026-10-01] The same table shows the divergence within the state is structural, not a statewide decline: Northern (West Virginia) 13,137 ... year to date 24,419 ... 8.1 [percent]; Southern (West Virginia) 8,836 ... year to date 17,419 ... -9.1 [percent] — Northern WV's strong growth is offsetting Southern's export-driven softness, a mechanism that supports the full-year total staying well above 76 MMst even if Southern weakness persists. - [2026-10-01] EIA's Quarterly Coal Report landing page states U.S. coal production during the second quarter of 2026 totaled 125.4 million short tons (MMst), which was 4.9% lower than the previous quarter and 2.2% lower than the second quarter of 2025 , and attributes nearly all of the national decline to the West: Production in the Western region, which represented about 49.2% of total U.S. coal production in the second quarter of 2026, totaled about 61.6 MMst (9.6% lower than the second quarter of 2025) — confirming the national coal slump is a Powder River Basin story, not an Appalachian/WV one. - [2026-02-11] President Trump signed an executive order directing the US Department of Defence to enter into long-term purchase agreements with coal-fired plants and prioritise the "preservation and strategic utilisation" of "coal-based energy assets" , a direct federal demand-support mechanism for coal-fired generation that sources West Virginia coal. - [2026-02-11] The same policy package included funds to keep coal plants open in West Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina and Kentucky , with WV MetroNews specifying West Virginia had three plants on the list; AEP's John Amos plant in Putnam County, AEP's Mountaineer plant in Mason County, and Mon Power's Fort Martin Power Station in Monongalia County , directly extending the life of WV coal-fired demand through 2026 and beyond. - [2026-06-05] DOE committed up to $850 million to construct two new coal-fired power plants, modernize more than a dozen other facilities, and bolster coal export capabilities , with one of the two brand-new plants being new coal-fired plants in Anchorage, Alaska, and Mt. Storm, West Virginia, which will have a combined capacity of 2.85 GW — a new, large WV coal demand anchor project announced mid-2026. - [2026-07-31] American Electric Power moved to acquire a West Virginia coal plant specifically to meet AI-driven power demand: American Electric Power has agreed to acquire a 710 MW coal-fired power plant in West Virginia after outbidding a major data center developer for the facility... reflects increased competition for electric generating capacity as demand for power continues to rise with the expansion of artificial intelligence computing , signaling utilities intend to keep (not retire) WV coal capacity running. - [2026-04-24] A West Virginia state policy brief notes regulators are mandating higher coal utilization at existing plants: West Virginia regulators want utilities to run their coal plants at 69% capacity to protect mining jobs , a state-level mechanism that would support higher coal burn/demand (and hence WV coal production) through the rest of 2026. - [2026-04-24] The same source documents enabling state legislation: West Virginia recently passed the Comprehensive Energy Policy and Development Plan Act of 2026 and the Comprehensive Grid Stabilization and Energy Security Act of 2026, designed to promote increased generation capacity in the state , reinforcing a pro-coal regulatory environment for the remainder of the measurement year. - [2026-10-01] Confirming the pace implied by weekly trackers, EIA's own quarterly data put Appalachia's H1 2026 total 2.1% above H1 2025 ( Appalachia Total 42,624 ... year to date 81,811 ... 2.1 [percent] ), consistent with WV (the largest Appalachian producer) comfortably clearing its prior-year pace rather than falling toward the 76 MMst threshold. BOTTOM LINE: The single most likely path to YES is simple continuation of the status quo: official MSHA/EIA data through H1 2026 show WV production essentially flat (+0.2%) year-over-year against a 2025 base of 81.8 MMst, while a stack of 2026 federal and state policy actions (Pentagon coal-purchase order, $850M plant modernization/new-build funding including a new WV plant, AEP's AI-driven coal-plant acquisition, and WV's 69%-capacity utilization mandate) all point toward sustained or rising coal-fired demand through year-end, making a full-year total above 76 MMst the base-case outcome absent an unprecedented Q3/Q4 collapse. NOT FOUND: No EIA Q3 2026 (July-September) Table 2 state-level figures were located (next Quarterly Coal Report not yet released as of Oct 9, 2026); no official year-end 2026 government forecast specifically for WV tonnage (only national/regional STEO aggregates).

YES means: EIA's first Quarterly Coal Report showing full-year 2026 data (Table 2, West Virginia Total), expected ~April 2027, reports West Virginia production above 76 million short tons. This dimension argues the NO case — that WV's 2026 total comes in at or below 76 million short tons. - [2026-10-01] EIA's October 1, 2026 Quarterly Coal Report shows national production of 125.4 million short tons in Q2 2026, which was 4.9% lower than the previous quarter and 2.2% below the same quarter of 2025 — a sequential deceleration layered on top of an already-negative year-over-year comparison, consistent with worsening conditions as 2026 progressed rather than stabilizing. - [2026-09-xx] EIA's own September 2026 STEO narrative frames the whole-year coal decline as demand-driven, stating reduced demand for coal in the electric power sector leads to lower coal production in our forecast; we expect coal production to fall from 528 million short tons (MMst) in 2025 to 516 MMst in 2026 , confirming the structural downtrend EIA itself expects for the year, even if it labels Appalachia "relatively flat" in aggregate. - [2026-02-13] A documented mechanism for WV-specific softness: Greenbrier Minerals (a Coronado Global Resources subsidiary) permanently idled seven southern WV mine/prep-plant sites beginning April 14, 2026, citing that sustained weakness in the U.S. High-Vol markets has caused realized pricing at our Logan facility to remain below cash operating cost… Production is being immediately curtailed to cover contractual commitments carried over from 2025 — i.e., a large chunk of southern WV capacity went to zero for all of Q2–Q4 2026. - [2026-01-29] A second permanent closure, Alliance Resource Partners' Mettiki Coal Mountain View Mine in Tucker County, laid off 199 workers… layoffs will take effect April 1st , removing additional northern WV tonnage from the mix for three full quarters of 2026. - [2026-10-08] Brand-new, previously unreported closures land squarely in Q4: Panther Creek Mining (a Blackhawk Mining subsidiary) filed a WARN notice to idle its entire Samples Complex in Kanawha County, with a Kanawha County coal mining operation...scheduled to close in December, resulting in the permanent loss of approximately 109 jobs...The company expects to begin layoffs on December 5, 2026 — directly cutting into the final weeks of the measurement year. - [2026-10-06] Simultaneously, Boone County's Eagle Horizon Resources mine in Ashford shut down with Ashford will be losing its coal mine Sunday with that 71 jobs will be lost , meaning two more southern WV producing complexes go dark within the same week in early October 2026 — compounding the Greenbrier/Mettiki losses from earlier in the year rather than offsetting them. - [2026-10-08] A local report frames the scale: another coal mine in Ashford, Boone County, is scheduled to close this weekend… Together, the two closures are expected to eliminate approximately 180 coal mining jobs in southern West Virginia , on top of the roughly 729 jobs already eliminated by Greenbrier and Mettiki earlier in 2026 — a cumulative ~900 WV coal jobs lost in a single calendar year, an unusually large share of the state's ~23,000-person workforce reported by the state mine-safety office as of October 2026. - [2026-07-18] Met-coal price weakness — the commodity driving most southern WV ("High-Vol"/CAPP) output — persisted through summer: Australian high-grade coal fell 1.3% to $238.9/t FOB, while Chinese spot prices edged up… Supply improvements and low steel profitability pressure the market , reinforcing the "adverse market conditions" Greenbrier cited and giving operators continued incentive to idle rather than restart capacity before year-end. - [2026-10-08] The IEA's mid-year 2026 outlook corroborates a national-level production cut, not just a demand-side generation cut, noting domestic coal demand is forecast to decline by 7% in 2026, despite policy support. However, we expect production to fall by only 3%, as inventory rebuilding after the 2025 drawdown and stronger exports...partly offset falling domestic consumption — implying that without the export/inventory offset (concentrated in thermal/Powder River basins, not CAPP met coal), WV's southern-basin output could fall further than the national average. - [2026-10-05] WV's own Mine Safety office data (MSHA-based, broader coverage than EIA) shows cumulative H1 2026 production of only 59.78 million short tons including quarry tonnage, and critically shows only 1st Quarter – January, February, March: 110 2nd Quarter – April, May, June: 103 mines reporting production in Q2 vs 116 and 119 respectively in the comparable 2025 quarters — a falling mine count that mechanically shrinks the reporting base for H2. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case rests not on hypotheticals but on a documented, accelerating wave of permanent WV mine closures (Greenbrier's 7 sites and Mettiki in April, then Panther Creek and Eagle Horizon in October, eliminating roughly 900 jobs across 2026) layered onto a Q2 national production print that was down both sequentially (-4.9%) and year-over-year (-2.2%), plus persistently soft metallurgical coal prices pressuring the southern-WV/CAPP producers most affected by these closures; if the compounding capacity loss drags H2 output meaningfully below H1's pace, full-year 2026 WV production could fall to or below the 76 MMst threshold even though 2025 cleared it by over 5 MMst. NOT FOUND: No official EIA Q3 2026 Quarterly Coal Report Table 2 figure for West Virginia was available as of this research (next release expected ~January 2027); no production-tonnage estimate for how much capacity the Greenbrier, Mettiki, Panther Creek, and Eagle Horizon closures remove in aggregate; no confirmation of exact WV output level in the 2020 COVID trough for comparison.