Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

- [2026-09-17] At its meeting ending on 16 September 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. Three members voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%. This is the official BoE decision, confirmed on the Bank's own Monetary Policy Summary page. [bankofengland.co.uk] - [2026-09-17] Six members (Andrew Bailey, Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra, Clare Lombardelli, Dave Ramsden and Alan Taylor) preferred to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75% at this meeting... Three members (Megan Greene, Catherine L Mann and Huw Pill) preferred a 0.25 percentage point increase in Bank Rate at this meeting. This was the sixth consecutive hold of 2026, the same vote split as the July meeting. [bankofengland.co.uk] - [2026-09-17] Per the BoE's own page: Current Bank Rate 3.75% Next due: 5 November 2026 , confirming the next scheduled decision and that 3.75% is the pre-meeting baseline for the question. [bankofengland.co.uk] - [2026-09-16] Taken together, the Committee judged that risks to the inflation outlook were tilted further to the upside compared with at the time of the previous MPC meeting. And there was the possibility of a less stark trade-off between weak output and rising inflation in coming quarters. [bankofengland.co.uk] - [2026-08-31] UK CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August, and the Bank expects inflation to increase further, reaching around 3.75% in the final quarter of 2026 and slightly above 4% in early 2027, based on energy prices prevailing in mid-September. [mta.org.uk, confirmed in BoE minutes] - [2026-09-25] Governor Andrew Bailey said publicly that the Bank "haven't increased bank rates but it's going to get harder to maintain that stance as energy prices remain higher," according to reporting citing his remarks on that date. - [2026-09-28] Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden, who voted to hold in September, placed particular weight on the role of slack in moderating inflation, evidence of restrained pass-through of costs to prices, and the restrictive level of Bank Rate in September but separately said there could be a case for raising rates if pressures continue to build, per reporting dated 2026-09-28. - [2026-10-05] Market pricing on that date implies the Bank of England base rate rises from 3.75% to around 4.4% by April 2027... makes a quarter-point rise at that meeting the clear favourite, at roughly a 95% chance against 5% for a hold, and the SONIA curve on this page has the first rise fully priced by early January. [mortgageonefinance.co.uk] - [2026-09-29] An independent swaps-based tracker reported: As of 29 Sept 2026, overnight index swap pricing implies a 83% probability the Bank of England hikes at the 05 Nov 2026 MPC meeting, with a market-implied move of +21 bp from the current Bank Rate of 3.75%. [bluegamma.io] - [2026-10-01] Andrew Goodwin, chief economist at Oxford Economics, said: "We now expect the Bank of England to hike interest rates by 25 basis points in November and February, taking Bank Rate to 4.25 per cent." [hoa.org.uk] - [2026-10-07] HomeOwners Alliance's updated tracker states the Current base rate: 3.75% – held on 17 September 2026... Next decision: 5 November 2026. A hike is 'increasingly likely' if energy prices stay high. [hoa.org.uk] - [2026-10-21] (scheduled, not yet occurred) Consumer price *inflation*, UK: September 2026 Release date: 21 October 2026 — this September CPI print, and the 28 October Autumn Budget, will land before the 5 November MPC decision and are likely to be pivotal swing factors. BOTTOM LINE: As of 2026-10-09, Bank Rate stands at 3.75% after a sixth consecutive 6–3 hold in September, with three hawkish dissenters (Greene, Mann, Pill) pushing for 4%; energy-driven inflation (3.1% in August, expected ~3.75-4%+ by Q4/Q1) has sharply hawkish momentum, and OIS/SONIA market pricing as of late Sept/early Oct puts the probability of a 25bp hike at the November 5 meeting in the 83-95% range, with the September CPI (Oct 21) and Autumn Budget (Oct 28) as the key intervening data points before the decision. NOT FOUND: No confirmed statement yet from the Bank of England on the November 2026 decision itself (it has not occurred as of today); no October 2026 MPC member speeches beyond Bailey (Sep 25) and Ramsden (Sep 28) were found; could not find the exact current (Oct 9) live market-implied probability figure, as that is this contract's own pricing and excluded per instructions.

- [2023-08-03] The last time the BoE raised Bank Rate was the cycle peak hike to 5.25% in August 2023; UK interest rates were increased from 0.1% in December 2021 to 5.25% in August 2023, then cut gradually from August 2024 to December 2025, reaching 3.75% in September 2026 . A November 2026 hike would be the first rate increase in over three years, reversing a well-established easing cycle — a historically rare event type (BoE reversals from cutting to hiking mid-cycle are uncommon; the 2021-23 hiking cycle itself followed years of near-zero rates, and 2016's brief cut-then-hold is another rare reversal precedent). - [2026-07-30] At the July 2026 meeting the MPC voted by a majority of 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three members voting to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4% , source: Bank of England. - [2026-09-17] At the September 2026 meeting, the six members preferred to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%, while three members (Megan Greene, Catherine L Mann and Huw Pill) voted against, preferring to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4% . This was the sixth consecutive hold of 2026 per parliamentary research (commonslibrary.parliament.uk). - [2026-09-17] The same minutes noted households' and businesses' reactions to higher energy prices... the risk of material second-round effects had increased since July, and was likely to increase further to the extent that energy prices remained elevated for longer , and that CPI inflation was expected to increase to around 3¾% in 2026 Q4... and to reach slightly above 4% in 2027 Q1 , reflecting the BoE's own near-term rate-hike risk framing. - [2026-09-17] On market pricing captured within the same minutes: nearly all respondents to the September Market Participants Survey had expected Bank Rate to remain unchanged at this MPC meeting... the UK short-term interest rate curve was upward sloping and had risen further... peaking at around 4.9% by end-2027 , and market intelligence gathered in recent days indicated that the perceived probability of near-term increases in Bank Rate had risen — showing a trend of rising hike expectations even before the November meeting. - [2026-10-06] A third-party tracker of SONIA futures reported that at 6 October 2026, market pricing makes a quarter-point rise at that meeting the clear favourite, at roughly a 95% chance against 5% for a hold . This is not a primary BoE source but illustrates how far market-implied odds had moved toward a hike by early October. - [2026-10-01] HomeOwners Alliance (updated Oct 7) summarized that six members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to hold Bank Rate, while three voted to increase it to 4%; next decision 5 November 2026; a hike is 'increasingly likely' if energy prices stay high , and that economists are divided but a growing number expect an interest rate hike this year; financial markets are pricing in around four quarter-point interest rate rises by the end of 2027 (paraphrased from the "at a glance" summary). - [2026-10-07] On the same page, Oxford Economics' chief economist is quoted as expecting the BoE to hike interest rates by 25 basis points in November and February, taking Bank Rate to 4.25 per cent — representing one of the more prominent forecaster calls for a November hike. - [2026-09-25] Governor Bailey himself signalled the direction of travel, stating (per HomeOwners Alliance) that the Bank had not increased rates "but it's going to get harder to maintain that stance as energy prices remain higher," while MPC member Clare Lombardelli separately said a hike was "increasingly likely" if energy prices stayed high. - [2026-02-05] As an outside-view anchor on how reliably BoE committee votes track pre-meeting consensus/market pricing: in February 2026 the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee voted by a narrow 5-4 margin to keep rates on hold, with four members voting to cut by 25bps, whereas economists polled by Reuters had expected a clearer 7-2 split for a cut — illustrating that MPC votes can diverge meaningfully from analyst consensus even at close calls. - [reference class] Historically, when the BoE hiking cycle was active (2021-2023), hikes occurred at nearly every meeting for ~20 months straight; conversely, the 2024-2025 cutting cycle also proceeded steadily. Since December 2025 there have been six consecutive holds (per commonslibrary.parliament.uk), with the hawkish minority (3 of 9) stable across at least two meetings (July and September), indicating the committee is still short of a majority for a hike but trending hawkish amid an energy-driven inflation shock. BOTTOM LINE: The base-rate/outside-view picture shows a BoE that has not raised rates in over three years and has held for six straight meetings with a persistent 6-3 hold-vs-hike split, but momentum has clearly shifted hawkish since the July 2026 Middle East-driven energy shock, with money-market pricing and at least one major forecaster (Oxford Economics) now favoring a November hike; this is a genuinely live, historically unusual "cutting-cycle-to-hiking" reversal rather than a routine continuation. NOT FOUND: A systematic, long-run statistical base rate for how often BoE meetings with near-unanimous pre-meeting market pricing of a hike (as reportedly ~95% around Oct 6) actually resolve as priced; no official BoE or Reuters poll figure (post-September) giving the exact proportion of economists forecasting a November hike; no confirmation of the question's live market price (excluded per instructions).

YES means: the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee raises Bank Rate by 25 basis points (from 3.75% to 4.00%) at the conclusion of its November 2026 meeting, as announced on 5 November 2026. - [2026-10-01] In an official Bank of England speech, MPC member Catherine L. Mann stated directly: "The appropriate response therefore is not to rely on risk premia to do the work of policy, but to reduce inflation risk and policy uncertainty through a clearly communicated reaction function and a sufficiently restrictive path for Bank Rate." She further disclosed her own voting intent: "In my view, real financial conditions are insufficiently tight." (bankofengland.co.uk) - [2026-10-01] The same official BoE speech text shows Mann explicitly cites her prior votes as evidence of her hawkish trajectory going into November, having voted for a hike at both the July and September meetings — i.e., a third such vote would be enough to tip the balance only if two more members join her. (bankofengland.co.uk) - [2026-10-01] Separately reported by Bloomberg, Mann argued a hike is needed to manage inflationary risks as financial conditions are still not tight enough, arguing that the UK central bank must act at some point after markets ramped up bets on officials increasing borrowing costs as many as four times by next summer . (bloomberg.com) - [2026-10-01] Further quoted reporting captured her sharper framing: "At some point, we need to follow-through with bank rate rises - to maintain credibility, and to avoid policy expectations repricing downwards and inflation expectations repricing further upwards," calling a risk-management approach appropriate. (briefs.co) - [2026-10-06] At a TS Lombard conference, Mann said UK inflation now appears "embedded" rather than temporary, per reporting that high inflation has become deeply rooted in the British economy, running above the BoE's 2% target for a long time, and now appears to be embedded, meaning it is no longer a temporary problem but a lasting feature of the economy . (shafaqna.com) - [2026-09-17] Rabobank's house view (RaboResearch), published the same day as the September hold, argued the committee was moving toward a "performative hike": "Given the changes to our energy price forecasts, and with the BoE the only one of the four major central banks (the Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE) not to have tightened policy in response to the latest energy shock, the November meeting has become a very live one. We therefore add a 25bp rate hike to our forecast for November, taking Bank Rate to 4.00%. This assumes the Autumn Budget will be absorbed smoothly." (fxstreet.com) - [2026-10-09] Capital Economics (Ashley Webb) forecasts a hike at the very next meeting: "As long as energy prices don't rise much further, our forecast is for the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points twice more, from 3.75 per cent at the next policy meeting in November and to 4.25 per cent in February." Oxford Economics holds an identical call. (hoa.org.uk) - [2026-09-30] Independent consultancy Cornwall Insight's updated forecast shows the energy shock feeding directly into the MPC's key swing variable: the January 2027 Ofgem price cap is projected to rise by 16% compared to October in January 2027, reaching £1,999 a year for a typical dual-fuel household... an increase of £276 and the largest rise since January 2023 , confirming energy-driven inflation pressure is intensifying, not fading, right into the pre-meeting data window. - [2026-10-01] UK market-based term-premium data cited in Mann's own BoE speech shows unusually large and UK-specific risk pricing: "this measure of nominal financial conditions resumed a slight tightening since the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East on account of higher short and long-term nominal interest rates" , and the OIS-survey gap she highlights implies markets are pricing far more tightening than MPC's own survey participants, reinforcing that a hawkish repricing is already embedded in UK rates ahead of 5 November. - [2026-10-02] Chief Economist Huw Pill has separately echoed Mann's hawkish framing, with reporting noting "Mann's comments echoed those of BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill, who had also criticised the central bank's communication for being too passive in the face of growing inflation risks" — suggesting a fourth committee member (Pill already dissented hawkish in July/September) is reinforcing, not softening, the hawkish bloc's public rhetoric just weeks before the vote. - [2026-09-27] Governor Bailey's own public remarks, as reported via Reuters, go further than a passive "harder to hold" framing: Bailey said the BoE could not keep interest rates at their current level for too long if energy prices remain high, and that the BoE needed to act before higher energy prices pushed inflation further upwards — language from the committee's swing voter that is unusually direct in signalling willingness to move. BOTTOM LINE: The clearest YES path is a continuation and expansion of the hawkish momentum already visible in the 6-3 vote split: with Mann (an existing dissenter) now making an unusually explicit, repeated public case for hiking in official BoE speeches, Pill echoing her, and Bailey himself signalling the hold is becoming untenable, only one or two additional votes are needed to flip the September 6-3 hold into a majority for 4.00% — a shift multiple sell-side desks (Rabobank, Capital Economics, Oxford Economics) now treat as their base case, contingent on the 21 October CPI print and 28 October Budget not undermining the inflation case. NOT FOUND: No post-21 October CPI data (not yet released as of this research); no confirmed Reuters poll of economists specifically on the November decision (only individual forecaster quotes found); no additional October MPC speeches from Bailey, Ramsden, Breeden, Dhingra, Lombardelli or Taylor beyond what's cited above or in prior reports.

YES means: the BoE's November 5, 2026 MPC meeting results in Bank Rate being raised from 3.75% to 4.00% (a 25bp increase, officially confirmed via the Bank's Monetary Policy Summary/Minutes). The dimension below argues for NO (Bank Rate held at 3.75%, or any other outcome besides a 25bp hike). - [2026-09-08] A Reuters poll of 65 economists taken September 4–8 found all 65 economists polled by Reuters September 4 to 8 said they expect the Monetary Policy Committee to leave rates on hold on September 17 , and separately nearly 90 per cent of economists polled, 57 of 65, expect rates to remain on hold for the rest of the year, the same proportion as in a survey taken three weeks ago, with eight expecting a rate rise to 4.00 per cent by end-year . This is the most recent full Reuters poll found and shows professional consensus still tilted toward holds persisting into year-end, i.e., against a November hike, even as it concedes market pricing has moved further. - [2026-09-17] The BoE's own September Monetary Policy Summary — the most authoritative "status quo inertia" evidence — states there has been little evidence so far of material second-round effects in price and wage-setting, however, the risk of such effects, against which policy needs to lean, is greater the longer higher energy prices persist or are more volatile . The Committee's own trigger condition for a hike (confirmed second-round effects) was explicitly not yet met as of its last official statement. - [2026-09-17] The same minutes show the hawkish bloc is still a minority of three: Six members (Andrew Bailey, Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra, Clare Lombardelli, Dave Ramsden and Alan Taylor) voted in favour of the first proposition. Three members (Megan Greene, Catherine L Mann and Huw Pill) voted against this proposition, preferring to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4% . For a hike, at least two of the six holders must flip, a non-trivial bar given their public remarks since. - [2026-09-24] MPC member Swati Dhingra, one of the six holders, struck a clearly dovish tone just over two weeks ago: Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Swati Dhingra struck a dovish tone on Thursday, highlighting signs of easing price pressures and weakness in the United Kingdom (UK) labour market... Swati Dhingra says financial conditions have already delivered significant monetary tightening in the United Kingdom . A speech-tracker score flagged her remarks as showing no meaningful shift from the historically dovish baseline , suggesting at least one of the six holders is highly unlikely to flip, narrowing the pool that could realistically swing a majority. - [2026-09-28] Even the more hawkish-leaning holders used conditional, not committal, language: Deputy Governor Ramsden said only there could be a case for raising the Bank Rate if upside pressure on the inflation outlook keeps building, after Deputy Governors Breeden and Lombardelli made the same argument — language describing a contingent future possibility rather than a current intention to vote for a hike on November 5. - [2026-09-15] Labour-market cooling continues to undercut the "second-round effects" case for a hike: Total average weekly earnings in the UK, including bonuses, rose 3.9% year-on-year... slowing from 4.2% in the previous three-month period... the softest annual growth since the three months to February, as private-sector pay growth eased to 3.2% from 3.7%, its weakest pace since the three months to December 2020 , and the number of workers on company payrolls continued to slip... vacancies fell to 702,000 from 706,000, remaining at their lowest level outside the pandemic for more than a decade . - [2026-10-09] The newest available commentary (same-day as this report) confirms no fresh hawkish signal from the Governor: Bank of England governor Bailey offered few clues to markets on Thursday, as while he called for an unwavering commitment to returning inflation to target, he did not provide any guidance on the possibility of a November hike . The same analysis flags the Autumn Budget as a wildcard that could cut the other way: the committee will also have the small matter of the Autumn Budget between now and then to digest... any dropping of the ball that triggers another leg higher in gilt yields could dampen bets for further tightening beyond next month's meeting — a reminder that fiscal/gilt-market shocks before November 5 could tip holders toward caution rather than tightening. - [2026-10-09] The same piece also notes the vocal hawks (Greene, Pill) are repeat dissenters whose rhetoric is already priced in: Fellow MPC members Greene and Pill both struck a hawkish note during their remarks yesterday, warning over risks to inflation, though both of these members already voted for a hike at the last meeting so we would argue that their communications carry less weight for now , implying the real swing votes (the conditional holders) have not yet committed. - [reference class] Historical precedent cautions against assuming market-implied hike odds convert to an actual MPC majority: as recently as November 2025, the Bank of England on Thursday voted narrowly to hold interest rates steady... the vote was slimmer than expected with economists polled by Reuters expecting a 6-3 split in favor of a hold , i.e., even recent MPC decisions have deviated from pre-meeting consensus, and in February 2026 the vote split itself (5-4) diverged from the Reuters-polled consensus (colleagues' report), underscoring that committee votes are not mechanically determined by market or poll odds. - [2026-09-17] The BoE's own near-term inflation path still falls short of its internally flagged "danger" threshold: BoE forecasts project CPI rising to 4% inflation is an important threshold, as inflation above that level is statistically more likely to be consistent with second-round effects and prolonged price pressure... ING estimating it will peak at around 3.5% on the current energy price path (per ING's read of BoE's own framework), meaning the Bank's own quantitative hike trigger may not be definitively breached by November. BOTTOM LINE: The institutional default remains a hold: the MPC's hawkish bloc is stuck at three votes across two consecutive meetings, the Bank's own stated hike trigger (confirmed second-round effects) was explicitly not met as of 17 September, wage/payrolls data have continued cooling rather than accelerating, and at least one (Dhingra) of the six holders shows no sign of flipping while the others (Ramsden, Breeden, Lombardelli) use only conditional "could be a case" language rather than committing to a hike — all of which argues status-quo inertia could again prevail on November 5, especially if the Oct 21 CPI print or Oct 28 Budget introduce fresh disinflationary or gilt-market risk. NOT FOUND: No October (post-September-8) Reuters poll specifically asking about the November 5 decision was found, so it is unclear whether economist consensus has flipped toward a hike since early September; no confirmation of how many of Breeden/Lombardelli/Ramsden/Taylor would actually vote to hike absent further data; no detail yet on September CPI (due 21 Oct) or the Autumn Budget's content (due 28 Oct), both of which precede the decision and were explicitly flagged as pivotal swing factors.