Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2027 meeting? — Fed maintains rate

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC raised its target range by 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% (unanimous 12-0 vote), the first hike since 2023, after holding steady through most of 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260916.htm - [2026-09-16] The accompanying Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) showed the median participant expecting one more 25bp hike by year‑end 2026 (to 4.1%) and then no change to the policy rate in 2027, and rate cuts in 2028 and 2029, with the fed funds rate unchanged in 2027 at 4.1% . However, only eight dots projected another 25bp hike in 2027 , showing a split committee. - [2026-10-06/07] The federal funds effective rate and target range remain at 3.75%–4.00% (upper bound 4.00%) as of the latest daily H.15 release and FRED data. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/ ; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU - [2026-10-07] FOMC minutes from the September meeting showed officials expect they will raise interest rates again before the end of the year to head off inflation that has run above target, though the minutes gave no indication of when specifically . Of the 18 FOMC officials who submitted forecasts, 16 said they expected another increase in 2026. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html - [2026-10-07] Market pricing has shifted: fixed income markets project rates will likely be held steady in October, followed by a hike in December and additional hikes in 2027, with the most likely path being one or two more hikes probably coming in 2027 , a shift from a few weeks earlier when back-to-back October/December hikes were seen as likely. https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/10/07/fed-minutes-underscore-hawkish-policy-outlook/ - [2026-10-07] PNC Economics' baseline is that the FOMC keeps the fed funds rate unchanged at its next meeting on October 27-28, then another 25bp hike at the mid-December meeting . https://www.pnc.com/content/dam/pnc-com/pdf/aboutpnc/EconomicReports/EconomicUpdates/2026/PNC_Economics_Research_FOMC_Minutes_7_October_2026.pdf - [2026-09-25] J.P. Morgan Global Research's published view: the quarter-point raise was in line with its forecast, and J.P. Morgan sees the Fed remaining on hold for the rest of 2026 after one more December hike, and explicitly stated it does not foresee a protracted hiking cycle extending into next year — though a separate FAQ schema snippet on the same page states "The Fed is expected to hike by 25 basis points (bp) in September 2027, though risks are tilted toward an earlier move" (this appears to be stale/auto-generated metadata inconsistent with the article's main text, so should be treated with caution). - [2027 schedule, confirmed 2026-10-08 via Fed's own calendar] The Fed's official (tentative) FOMC calendar lists the September 2027 meeting as September 14–15, 2027, a Tuesday/Wednesday session that includes a Summary of Economic Projections release; the Fed notes 2027 dates remain tentative until confirmed at the preceding meeting. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm - [2026-09-20, ~3 weeks ago] CME-based Fed funds futures (via investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor) as of that date implied only a 1.3% probability that the target range would still be 3.75%–4.00% at the September 15, 2027 meeting, implying markets expect the rate to have moved (most likely higher) from the current level by then — though this reflects the cumulative path over many meetings, not specifically whether that particular meeting itself delivers a hike, cut, or hold. https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor - [2026-10-07] Recent softer inflation data (August core PCE at 3%, slightly below expectations) has caused markets to push back expectations for the next hike from October to December 2026, per CNBC's reporting on the minutes and PCE data. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html - [2026-10-08] Current effective fed funds rate stands at 3.88%, with futures markets pricing the rate rising to about 4.1% by January 2027 and roughly 4.7% by October 2027, indicating a market expectation of continued tightening well into 2027. https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds BOTTOM LINE: As of early October 2026 the Fed has just begun a tentative hiking cycle (3.75%–4.00%), with one more 2026 hike widely expected (likely December) and a genuinely split, data-dependent outlook for 2027 — the September 2026 dot-plot median shows no change in 2027, but roughly half the committee and some market pricing point to further hikes extending into 2027, making the specific September 14–15, 2027 meeting outcome highly uncertain and dependent on 11 months of future data not yet available. NOT FOUND: No specific market-implied probability (CME FedWatch or equivalent) for the exact September 2027 FOMC meeting outcome (hike vs. hold vs. cut) broken out meeting-by-meeting was found; only cumulative/level-based futures pricing for that date was available. No confirmation yet that the September 14–15, 2027 meeting date has been finalized (it remains tentative per Fed convention).

- [2026-10-01] Since September 1982 there have been 186 federal funds target rate changes, with the most recent being a +25 basis point move effective 2026-09-17 to 3.75%-4.00% . The FOMC holds roughly 8 scheduled meetings/year (~360-380 meetings since 1982), so the overwhelming majority of individual meetings result in no change — holds vastly outnumber changes in the historical record, though changes cluster tightly in cycles (e.g., 11 consecutive hikes in 2022-23, multiple consecutive holds in 2026). - [2026-05-20] The historical pattern shows hikes are rare and cluster in tightening cycles: The Federal Reserve can raise interest rates at any of its eight scheduled meetings per year, but the actual number of hikes in a given year swings dramatically based on economic conditions. Between March 2022 and July 2023, the FOMC raised rates at 11 consecutive meetings, adding a total of 525 basis points. - [2026-05-20] After that cycle, holds were the norm for over a year: After that final July 2023 hike, the committee held rates unchanged for over a year before beginning to cut in September 2024. This illustrates how "0bps" (hold) outcomes dominate outside of active tightening/easing phases. - [2026-09-17] Immediately relevant to the current cycle: the Fed just resumed hiking after a pause — the FOMC raised the policy rate by 25 basis points, lifting the target range to 3.75%–4.0%, following five consecutive meetings where the FOMC held rates steady. This marks the first hike since the 2022-23 cycle, a notable base-rate departure since the Fed had been in an easing/holding posture for roughly two years prior. - [2026-09-16] The Fed's own SEP (dot plot) as of September 2026 projects elevated, roughly flat rates through 2027 rather than a hiking trajectory into September 2027 specifically: the median projection for the federal funds rate was raised to 4.1% in 2026 – suggesting the potential for another rate hike by year-end. 2027 was raised from 3.6% to 4.1%, while 2028 falls to 3.9% . This implies the median FOMC participant sees the policy rate roughly flat across 2027 (consistent with holds dominating most 2027 meetings), not a continued hiking campaign reaching into September 2027. - [2026-09-16] Within the 2027 dot plot detail: there were four outliers projecting rate cuts in 2027 while the other 14 FOMC participants projected the target range to be either 4.00% to 4.25% or 4.25% — i.e., most participants see the level by end-2027 at or just above today's post-September-2026 hike level, implying at most one further hike in the 14 months between now and September 2027, not a certainty of one occurring exactly at the September 2027 meeting. - [2026-10-09] The September 2027 FOMC meeting is confirmed as scheduled for September 14-15, 2027 (decision on Sept 15), one of four meetings per year with a Summary of Economic Projections release; meeting dates remain tentative until confirmed at the prior meeting, per the Fed's own disclaimer: The dates can still move. In the Fed's words, "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it." - [2026-08-28] Near-term market pricing for the September 2026 meeting (not September 2027, but illustrative of how fast sentiment swings) oscillated wildly within weeks: Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi now believe there are 48% odds that the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points. Before Warsh's speech, odds that the central bank would maintain the status quo in September were nearly 70%. This underscores how volatile short-horizon Fed-meeting odds are, and by extension how little confidence can be placed in any single-meeting forecast made 11+ months in advance. - [2026-09-17] No sibling-market or dated data was found specifically pricing the September 2027 meeting (prediction markets and CME FedWatch typically only extend reliable pricing out a few meetings, not 23 months ahead to September 2027). NOT FOUND: A formal, cross-decade statistic giving an exact percentage of all historical FOMC meetings that resulted in "no change" (I estimated qualitatively from the full 1982-2026 history table and narrative sources, but no source gave a single computed percentage). Also not found: any prediction-market or CME FedWatch pricing specifically for the September 2027 meeting (this far out, such data does not meaningfully exist yet). BOTTOM LINE: Historically, "hold" (0bps) is by far the most common single-meeting outcome across the Fed's ~44-year, ~360+ meeting record, with hikes/cuts concentrated in relatively short, data-driven cycles; the Fed just restarted a hiking cycle in September 2026 after a long hold/cut period, and its own September 2026 dot plot sees the policy rate roughly flat (around 4.1%) through 2027, implying the base-rate/outside-view expectation for any single specific 2027 meeting—including September 2027—favors a hold over a hike, absent a resumed aggressive tightening cycle.

YES means: at the September 15, 2027 FOMC meeting, the Committee leaves the federal funds target range unchanged (a "hold"), rather than delivering a 0bp-labeled hike that is literally a no-change outcome under this contract's wording. - [2026-10-08] In a Fed Board speech, Governor Waller stated that eight participants expect that rates will be 50 basis points higher at the end of 2027 than they are today, and by the March 2027 meeting, markets see nearly an 80 percent chance of at least two hikes and a 33 percent chance of three or more hikes — implying markets expect the bulk of the 2027 tightening to be front-loaded into the meetings through March 2027, not spread out to a hike specifically timed at September 2027. - [2026-09-16/per Schwab] Only a minority of the Committee sees any further 2027 move at all: this isn't likely to be "one-and-done" for hikes but also probably won't be the start of an extended hiking cycle. Only eight dots project another 25 basis points in 2027 — meaning 10 of 18 participants project no additional 2027 hike, a majority consistent with a hold at any single 2027 meeting including September. - [2026-10-07/bondsavvy] Breaking down the September 2026 dot plot further, the dots in 2027 are interesting, as there were four outliers projecting rate cuts in 2027 while the other 14 FOMC participants projected the target range to be either 4.00% to 4.25% or 4.25% to a slightly higher band — i.e., most participants see the level reached by one or two hikes total, not a rate path still actively hiking by September 2027. - [2026-10-02/defirate.com] Kalshi/Polymarket/CME-derived meeting-by-meeting odds (stopping at June 2027) show hold becoming the modal outcome again after the expected December 2026 hike: Jan 27 2027 | 37% 62% | Hold; Apr 28 2027 | 24% 65% 34% | Hold; Jun 9 2027 | 35% 62% | Hold — a pattern of alternating hike/hold that, if it continues, makes a September 2027 hold plausible rather than certain tightening. - [2026-10-08/StreetStats] The futures-implied path shows tightening decelerating sharply as it approaches September 2027: the period-to-period increase +1 Yr | Oct '27 | +9.7bp versus much larger increases earlier in the path (+26bp over the prior quarter) — consistent with the market pricing the hiking cycle largely finishing before fall 2027, leaving September 2027 itself more likely a pause/plateau point. - [2026-09-11/Bloomberg] Even for the September 2026 meeting itself, a majority of economists saw the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady at this month's meeting and through the end of 2027, even as market odds for a rate hike increased — showing professional forecasters' modal view has been "hold through 2027," not a resumed multi-meeting hiking campaign reaching into September 2027. - [2026-09-11/Briefs.co, sourcing the same Bloomberg poll] A Bloomberg poll shows most economists think the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the Sept. 15-16 meeting and stay put through the end of 2027 , directly supporting a hold persisting all the way to the September 2027 meeting under this house view. - [2026-06-12/Bloomberg survey] Longer-horizon economist surveys have repeatedly pushed the next *move* (a cut) into 2027 rather than more hikes: The median estimate from 35 economists polled suggested policymakers will cut rates in June 2027, and again by December of 2027, lowering the target range of their benchmark to 3% to 3.25% — a path in which, if cuts begin by mid-2027, the September 2027 meeting would most plausibly be either a hold (between cut steps) or itself a cut, not a hike, reinforcing "not-a-hike" as the YES outcome. - [~2026-09-16/Morningstar, 22 days old] One independent research house frames the likely 2027 trajectory as a plateau followed by cuts rather than continued hiking: the market is expecting this high target range of 4.25%-4.50% to be held indefinitely... We expect progress on core inflation along with weakening growth to push the Fed to cut rates twice in the second half of 2027 — under this view the terminal/plateau rate is reached before September 2027, making a hold (or cut) at that specific meeting more likely than a hike. - [2026-10-08/Waller speech, mechanism] Waller's own framing of the dot plot as a deliberate "signaling" tool whose purpose is to anchor expectations while preserving flexibility in adjusting rate hikes based on incoming data underscores that any further 2027 hikes are explicitly data-contingent, not committed — leaving open, and even favoring on current median dots, a scenario where incoming 2027 data (further progress on the "softer" wage/rent inflation drivers cited by Goldman) justifies a pause specifically by September 2027. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case for YES rests on converging evidence that the current hiking cycle is expected to be short and largely front-loaded (one‑to‑two moves into Dec 2026/March 2027), that a majority of FOMC dots and most surveyed economists do not project a further 2027 hike beyond the initial resumption, and that several forecasters (Goldman, Morningstar, Bloomberg survey respondents) see the Fed on hold or already cutting well before September 2027 — all of which point toward the September 2027 meeting most plausibly landing on a hold (0bps) rather than a hike. NOT FOUND: No market (Kalshi, Polymarket, or CME FedWatch) currently publishes meeting-specific odds all the way out to September 2027 (data found extends only to around June 2027); no Fed communication explicitly commits to pausing specifically at the September 2027 meeting, since 2027 dots and FOMC dates remain tentative/subject to revision at each intervening meeting.

YES means: the Fed holds its target range unchanged (a 0bp move) at the September 14–15, 2027 FOMC meeting — i.e., "Fed maintains rate" resolves Yes. This dimension argues the opposite (NO) case: that the Fed instead delivers an actual rate hike at that specific meeting. - [2026-10-08] In his Istanbul speech, Governor Waller said that eight participants expect that rates will be 50 basis points higher at the end of 2027 than they are today, and by the March 2027 meeting, markets see nearly an 80 percent chance of at least two hikes and a 33 percent chance of three or more hikes — showing market pricing already assumes substantial cumulative tightening well before September 2027, leaving the door open for further hikes later in the year. - [2026-10-08] Waller explicitly framed the likely cycle size as three 25 basis point hikes so that policy will ultimately be 75 basis points higher than it currently is , and Axios's read of the same speech concluded it's a hint that he sees three rate hikes in this adjustment cycle as the most probable course of action — a three-hike cycle starting in September 2026 plausibly has its final leg landing in mid-to-late 2027, not necessarily completed before September. - [2026-10-08] Critically, Waller stated there is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur... The hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings, but they should be in place in an acceptable period of time — this is a mechanism by which a hike could land specifically at the September 2027 SEP meeting (one of only four "live," projection-accompanied meetings in 2027) rather than being front-loaded into early-2027 meetings only. - [2026-10-07] The September minutes showed many participants emphasized that a higher path for the target range would be prudent on risk-management grounds, providing insurance against inflation remaining persistently above target due to stronger-than-expected demand or further adverse supply shocks — a risk-management rationale that doesn't expire after one or two hikes and could justify an additional move as late as September 2027 if inflation stays sticky. - [2026-10-08] A separate markets report on the same Waller remarks noted traders are expecting at least three more rate hikes by the end of 2027, taking the FFR range to 4.50-4.75% — three additional hikes from today's 3.75–4.00% range cannot all be squeezed into the four meetings before March 2027 without consecutive moves (which Waller said aren't required), making a September 2027 hike a live possibility for one of the later installments. - [stale snapshot, ~72 days old per metadata] An investing.com Fed Rate Monitor snapshot showed, for the September 15, 2027 meeting, only 3.75 - 4.00 / 0.6% cumulative probability of the rate still sitting at today's range, with the bulk of probability mass already shifted to higher ranges — consistent with the market treating further tightening (not a return to pure holding) as the dominant base case by that date, even if this snapshot predates the most recent hawkish commentary and should be treated cautiously given its age. - [2026-10-08] Waller's speech also flagged that official data was interrupted because of the government shutdown that began on October 1 , which creates data gaps that could push decisions later and compress the effective "catch-up" hiking window into mid/late 2027, raising the odds that one of the delayed hikes falls specifically on the September meeting rather than resolving earlier in the year. - [2026-09-15, methodology note] Per a CME FedWatch explainer citing peer-reviewed research, the tool's probabilities are only validated as highly accurate The tool is right in about 88% of cases 30 days before a Fed decision — meaning any pricing-based "hold" expectation for a meeting 11+ months away (September 2027) is far less reliable than near-term pricing, leaving substantial room for the eventual outcome to diverge from today's indicative odds toward a hike. - [1982–2023 precedent] The most directly comparable precedent — the 2022–23 tightening cycle — delivered hikes across 11 consecutive meetings over roughly 16 months; if the cycle that began in September 2026 runs even half as long under a non-consecutive cadence (per Waller's October 8 framing), a hike at the 12th meeting of the cycle (September 2027) would not be historically unusual, undercutting the assumption that "holds dominate" applies evenly within an active, risk-management-driven tightening cycle. BOTTOM LINE: The most recent (October 8, 2026) Fed commentary and market pricing point to a multi-hike cycle (two to three further 25bp moves) extending from late 2026 into 2027, with officials explicitly reserving the right to space hikes non-consecutively across SEP meetings rather than front-load them all before March — leaving a genuine, data-dependent possibility that the September 2027 meeting itself delivers a hike rather than a hold. NOT FOUND: No CME FedWatch or Kalshi-sourced hike/hold/cut probability breakdown specific to the September 2027 meeting (as opposed to cumulative target-range pricing) could be located; also no confirmation of how the ongoing government shutdown (began October 1, 2026) might affect the FOMC's data and meeting schedule through 2027.