How high will the price of fertilizer get this year? — Above $1000

- [2026-03-20] The Illinois Production Cost Report (USDA-AMS) showed urea averaged $823/ton on March 20, 2026, up sharply (~42%) from $579/ton before the Iran conflict ("Operation Epic Fury," which began February 28, 2026); this was the peak of the acute spike phase so far this year. This represents an increase of $155 (+18.4%) from the $843 average in the February 20th report released prior to the start of the conflict in Iran, and over the same time period the average urea price in Illinois increased by nearly 42% from $579 per ton. - [2026-04-13] National average retail urea reportedly reached around $858/ton for the week of April 13, 2026, urea averaged $858 per ton, up 41.1% from the week of February 16 and 48.7% from a year earlier. This is the highest level documented in the sources reviewed and remains below $1,000. - [2026-05-01] The Illinois Production Cost Report put urea at an average of $902.50/ton (range $875–$925), Fri May 1, 2026 Urea (46-0-0) Ask 875.00 - 925.00 902.50 0.00 F.O.B. Current, Report for week ending 05/01/2026 — the closest the series has come to the $1,000 threshold this year, but still under it. - [2026-08-07] Anhydrous ammonia (a related nitrogen input, not urea) hit $915.50/ton in Illinois, still below $1,000, per farmdoc daily's August 11, 2026 article on fertilizer and fuel prices heading into fall. - [2026-08-11] Farmdoc daily reported fertilizer and fuel prices are generally higher than they were at the same time in the last two years, with fall harvest for the 2026 crop and planning for 2027 soon to begin, and fuel costs for harvest activities expected to be considerably higher primarily attributed to the war with Iran. - [2026-09-19] Twitter/X summary of farmdoc daily data on phosphate and nitrogen fertilizer trends showed anhydrous ammonia fluctuating more sharply, ranging from $400 to $980 before ending near $740 over a chart spanning January 2024 to August 2026 — urea has stayed below the anhydrous peaks. - [2026-10-02] The most recent official Illinois Production Cost Report (USDA-AMS, week ending 10/02/2026) shows urea (46-0-0) averaging $770.00/ton, with a price range of $650.00–$890.00, up $48 from the prior report; anhydrous ammonia averaged $945.00/ton (source: https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3195.pdf). - [2026-10-07] DTN's weekly retail fertilizer trend report (covering the last week of September 2026) stated the average retail price of urea was $683 per ton during the last week of September, 12% more than a year ago, while DAP averaged $934/ton, MAP $974/ton, potash $499/ton, urea $683/ton, anhydrous $979/ton and UAN28 $430/ton. This national retail figure is somewhat lower than, but broadly consistent with, the Illinois AMS urea average. - [2026-10-05] A separate USDA AMS report (Pacific Northwest Production Cost Report, a different region/series from the Illinois report used for resolution) showed urea averaging $1,085.60/ton with a wide range of $857.00–$1,350.00 — illustrating that urea prices above $1,000 do exist in some U.S. regional markets, but this is NOT the Illinois series that governs this market's resolution. - [2026-10-09] As of today, the governing Illinois Production Cost Report's most recent published urea average ($770/ton as of Oct 2, 2026) is roughly 23% below the $1,000 threshold, and has never been reported above ~$925 at any point in 2026 based on available releases (February 20 low ~$579, peak ~$902.50 in May, declining to $770 by October). NOT FOUND: No Illinois Production Cost Report release for 2026 has been found showing urea above $1,000/ton; could not find the specific bi-weekly releases for June, July, or late September 2026 to fully chart the month-by-month path between the May peak and the October reading (only the farmdoc daily summary articles and the October 2 report were accessible). Could not confirm the exact next scheduled release date after October 2, 2026 (reports are bi-weekly, so likely mid-October 2026). BOTTOM LINE: The authoritative Illinois Production Cost Report (the resolution source) has stayed well below $1,000/ton for urea all year, peaking near $902.50/ton in early May 2026 before easing to $770/ton by the October 2, 2026 report; national/regional urea benchmarks (DTN, Pacific Northwest AMS report) show some other series brushing or exceeding $1,000, but the specific Illinois series governing this contract has not crossed $1,000 to date, and the recent trend is down from the spring peak.

- [2026-10-02] The most recent USDA Illinois Production Cost Report (the exact data source for this contract) put average Urea (46-0-0) at $770.00 per ton (range $650–$890), after rising $48 from the prior report, well below the $1,000 threshold. [https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3195.pdf] - [2026-04-27] The same Illinois report showed Urea at an average $902.50/ton (range $875–$925), the closest Illinois urea has come to $1,000 in the 2026 market-opening period before falling back. [https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/filerepo/sites/default/files/3195/2026-04-27/1321488/ams_3195_00164.pdf] - [2026-03-20] Farmdoc analysis of the same USDA Illinois series noted average urea price in Illinois increased by nearly 42% from $579 per ton prior to the conflict to $823 on March 20th , the initial spike after the Iran conflict began, still under $1,000. - [2026-03-24] Farmdoc’s own forward-looking commentary (same Illinois series) stated fall 2026 anhydrous ammonia prices could exceed $1,000 per ton if the Iran conflict continues, drawing an analogy to elevated prices that persisted into fall 2022 and 2023 after the Ukraine-Russia war began — this was a conditional, hedged forecast for anhydrous, not urea, and did not come to pass for urea by October. - [2023-09-XX] Base-rate history: Farmdoc's retrospective found current prices for all three forms of nitrogen are down considerably from their 2nd quarter of 2022 peaks (over $1,600/ton for anhydrous, and over $1,000/ton for both urea and liquid nitrogen) , confirming the only time Illinois urea cleared $1,000/ton in the modern USDA-AMS series (since 2008) was the single 2022 global supply-shock episode. - [2025-03-27] USDA’s own Economic Research Service chart-of-note reiterates this singular historical event: prices for nitrogen fertilizers, anhydrous ammonia and urea, were relatively steady in 2020 but began rising sharply in 2021, reaching record highs in 2022, with urea surpassing $1,000 per ton . - [2025-08-08] By August 2025, Illinois urea had normalized well below that peak: prices in the first week of August averaged $594/ton for urea, well below the historical highs reached in the late spring of 2022 . - [2026-10-07] National DTN retail tracking (a related but distinct, non-Illinois-specific series) shows urea at $683/ton for the last week of September 2026, 12% more than a year ago , and other nitrogen products (anhydrous $979/ton) also still short of $1,000, consistent with the Illinois AMS reading of similar magnitude. - [2026-05-xx] World Bank commodity analysts flagged elevated but sub-2022 global urea prices: Nitrogen (urea) prices climbed above $850 per metric ton in April, up 80 percent since February and the highest level since April 2022 , while cautioning urea prices are projected to rise nearly 60 percent in 2026 before easing in 2027, though risks remain tilted upward enough to possibly push urea above their 2022 average — an expert forecast, not a certainty, and referencing global benchmarks rather than the Illinois AMS series directly. - [2026-10-01] The long-run Illinois AMS urea series (back to 2008) has an average around $440–$737/ton depending on the window cited, and has only breached $1,000 once (2022), implying a historical base rate of roughly one episode in ~18 years of bi-weekly observations, i.e., a rare tail event typically tied to an acute global supply shock (Russia-Belarus sanctions in 2022) rather than ordinary volatility. BOTTOM LINE: The only precedent for Illinois urea exceeding $1,000/ton in the USDA-AMS series since 2008 was the extraordinary 2022 global fertilizer crisis; current 2026 prices, despite a real Iran-conflict-driven spike to near $900–$902 in spring, have since cooled to roughly $770 by early October, well under the $1,000 line, so the base rate argues this threshold is a rare, shock-dependent outcome rather than a routine one. NOT FOUND: No Kalshi-specific historical resolution data for identical "fertilizer above $1000" contracts in prior years; no explicit probabilistic forecast from USDA or analysts for Illinois urea specifically crossing $1,000 before year-end 2026 (forecasts found were for anhydrous ammonia or global/national benchmarks, not Illinois urea itself).

YES means: the USDA-AMS Illinois Production Cost Report shows average Urea (46-0-0) priced above $1,000/ton at some point between Issuance and December 31, 2026. - [2026-10-08] The Strait of Hormuz crisis has sharply escalated this week: Iran is escalating attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, dramatically reducing the amount of oil moving through, with crude shipments through the strait dropping steeply , and a parallel military dashboard reports Hormuz traffic fell to a two-month low after a surge of tanker attacks as the Houthis again fired on Riyadh (https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-war-oprep.htm). This is the same corridor whose earlier closure was the proximate cause of this year's urea spike. - [2026-10-08] U.S. officials are weighing further military action: the White House asked the Pentagon for options to strike Iran before the 3 November midterms, per The Atlantic, sending Brent above $104 on 8 October — a live escalation path that, if it recreates the February–March conditions, could reproduce or exceed the earlier 42% urea spike documented in prior reports, potentially carrying urea above $1,000 this time given the higher starting base (~$770–$900) versus February's ~$579. - [2026-10-08] Secretary of State Rubio stated Iran had "lost complete control" of the strait, while an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps adviser said the Guard would soon block "illegal routes" , indicating both sides see the chokepoint as contested and unresolved, keeping supply-disruption risk to Middle East urea exporters (Iran, Qatar) elevated into Q4. - [2026-05-14] The World Bank's own April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook flagged that risks remain tilted upward, including prolonged shipping disruptions from the Middle East, further trade restrictions, and higher input costs—especially natural gas prices—all of which could push urea prices above their 2022 average — i.e., above the only historical episode (2022) when Illinois urea cleared $1,000. - [2026-05-01] Demonstrating that this specific Illinois AMS series is capable of crossing $1,000 within 2026, the companion nitrogen product anhydrous ammonia in the same bi-weekly report reached an average of $1,123.50/ton (range $995.00–$1,250.00) for the week ending May 1, 2026 (https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/filerepo/sites/default/files/3195/2026-04-27/1321488/ams_3195_00164.pdf) — proving the series' volatility envelope already extends well past $1,000 for a closely correlated nitrogen fertilizer this year, even though urea itself peaked lower at $902.50 the same week. - [2026-09-04] European gas-driven production economics remain a live upside risk going into fall/winter: a report on European ammonia producers noted Europe enters the winter season with relatively low gas reserves, and the reduction of some LNG supplies further intensifies competition for this resource , with some producers in Europe either scaling back or considering cuts to ammonia production as the ratio of fertilizer prices to gas costs no longer guarantees adequate profitability — supply curtailments abroad historically transmit to U.S. nitrogen benchmarks with a lag. - [2026-03-24] Farmdoc's own forward-looking commentary (cited in prior reports) explicitly modeled a path where fall 2026 nitrogen prices could exceed $1,000/ton "if the Iran conflict continues," explicitly drawing the 2022–2023 Ukraine-war analogy for persistence of elevated prices into fall — a mechanism that remains live given this week's renewed Hormuz escalation rather than resolution. - [2026-10-05] The Pacific Northwest Production Cost Report (a different USDA-AMS series, same agency, same methodology family) already shows regional urea averaging $1,085.60/ton with a top of $1,350.00/ton (noted in prior reports) — demonstrating that U.S. regional urea markets are already crossing $1,000 in 2026, and that a supply/freight shock reallocating Midwest-bound cargoes could transmit similar tightness to Illinois before Dec 31. - [2026-09-30] China's export relief is fragile and reversible: even after Beijing eased curbs, one tracker notes the closing date is less clear… Public sources have cited different deadlines, and the material reviewed for this article does not establish a single nationwide cutoff applying to every exporter and shipment , meaning China could re-tighten urea export quotas heading into its own winter application season, re-creating the March 2026 supply shock that drove the initial 42% urea spike. - [2026-10-02] Fall nitrogen application season (peak U.S. demand for urea/anhydrous) is underway through November, which historically coincides with seasonal Illinois price firmness; the October 2 report's $48 week-on-week urea increase (noted in prior reports) shows prices are still rising, not just falling, even before any fresh geopolitical shock is factored in. BOTTOM LINE: The clearest path to YES is a renewed or intensified Strait-of-Hormuz/Iran-war supply shock — now actively escalating as of October 8, 2026 with U.S. strike planning reportedly under consideration — compounding on top of already-elevated fall-application-season demand and fragile Chinese export policy; since the companion Illinois series for anhydrous ammonia and a sister-region urea series have both already cleared $1,000/ton in 2026, a comparable magnitude shock to urea specifically (which only needs roughly another 30% rise from the October 2 level of $770) is mechanically plausible before year-end. NOT FOUND: No confirmation that the current Hormuz escalation has yet produced a fresh Illinois urea print above the October 2 level; no scheduled mid-October AMS release could be located to see if the escalation has already moved the Illinois number.

YES means: the USDA Illinois Production Cost Report's urea (46-0-0) average price rises above $1,000/ton at some point between issuance and January 1, 2027. - [2026-07-15] An independent working paper on the 2026 Strait of Hormuz disruption found that, using the same Illinois distributor quotations underlying this contract, urea prices surged and then fell back, while phosphate prices remained elevated , and that Illinois distributor quotations showed quoted urea prices declined between April and July, while DAP, MAP, and liquid nitrogen remained firm or increased — i.e., urea is the nitrogen product least likely of the group to approach $1,000. (https://zenodo.org/records/21366446) - [2026-07-15] The same paper's global benchmark shows the shock was already fading mid-year: Middle East prill urea prices "rising sharply between February and April before falling 47 percent by June, ending slightly below its February level," per the paper's abstract — a round trip back to pre-crisis levels, not a sustained climb toward $1,000. (https://zenodo.org/records/21366446) - [2026-09-02] DTN's retail tracking for the week of Aug 24–28, 2026 put delivered urea at $655/ton, "−5% MoM, +4% YoY," versus anhydrous at $923/ton (+21% YoY) and DAP/MAP both near $920-960 — urea is the laggard among nitrogen/phosphate products and sits 34% below the $1,000 strike. (https://orreryonline.com/crop-root-zone/issues/rz-008/) - [2026-09-07] The same newsletter notes the wholesale leg is diverging from retail in the opposite direction for once ("Retail urea fell 5% last month while the barge it comes from rose 5.4% in the same month"), showing some upward wholesale pressure, but this had not yet reached retail/distributor pricing as of early September. (https://orreryonline.com/crop-root-zone/issues/rz-008/) - [2026-08-21] A dated AMS Illinois snapshot (report 3195, issued Aug 21, 2026) shows urea's distributor average at $722.00/ton, well below $1,000 and below the May peak near $902.50. (https://orreryonline.com/crop-root-zone/issues/rz-008/, citing AMS report 3195) - [2026-08-11] Farmdoc's own fall-2026 update attributes the year's elevated fertilizer costs mainly to anhydrous ammonia and DAP, stating anhydrous is now "16% higher... than at the same time last year and 23% higher than... in 2024" — the article singles out anhydrous and DAP as the products running hottest, not urea. (https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/08/fertilizer-and-fuel-prices-higher-heading-into-fall-2026.html) - [2026-08-11] Farmdoc dates the anhydrous surge specifically to the war with Iran, noting anhydrous "started the year higher than in 2024 and 2025, averaging around $840/ton through the end of February before rising sharply following the start of the war in Iran" — confirming the acute shock channel ran mainly through anhydrous/ammonia and gas costs, with urea a secondary and smaller mover. (https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/08/fertilizer-and-fuel-prices-higher-heading-into-fall-2026.html) - [2025-08-08] One year before the current cycle, Illinois urea was far from four digits, averaging "around $786/ton for anhydrous, $594/ton for urea" — underscoring that even after the 2026 Iran-driven spike, urea's percentage move from its typical base would need to roughly triple, not merely rise another 20-30%, to clear $1,000. (https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/08/fertilizer-decisions-for-the-2026-crop-year.html) - [2026-10-02] The most recent confirmed Illinois AMS release (week ending Oct 2, 2026) has urea at $770/ton with range $650–$890, down from the May peak and roughly 23% below the $1,000 threshold with under 13 weeks left before the Jan 1, 2027 close. BOTTOM LINE: Every Illinois-specific primary source (AMS reports and farmdoc's own analysis of them) and an independent academic review of the same series show urea rose only as high as ~$900-925/ton at its spring 2026 peak, then fell back toward $650-770/ton by autumn, while the acute Iran-conflict-driven price shock concentrated in anhydrous ammonia and phosphate products rather than urea; absent a fresh, larger supply shock, the status-quo trajectory and the historical fact that Illinois urea has only ever cleared $1,000 once (in 2022) both argue strongly for NO. NOT FOUND: No AMS Illinois Production Cost Report release after Oct 2, 2026 could be located (next release likely mid-to-late October 2026, not yet published); no confirmed Illinois urea reading above $925/ton at any point in 2026.