US strike on Colombia by December 31?

- [2026-08-07] Colombia's new president Abelardo de la Espriella, a Trump ally, was inaugurated, replacing Gustavo Petro who had vehemently opposed US strikes; de la Espriella has expressed support for the Trump administration's controversial campaign of military strikes against vessels suspected of carrying drugs in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific . https://www.npr.org/2026/08/07/nx-s1-5924775/colombias-new-president-vows-to-remake-the-country-and-challenge-its-fragile-peace - [2026-08-12] Colombia's defense ministry formally agreed to joint operations with the US; US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced that new far-right President Abelardo de la Espriella had authorized joint "counter-terrorism" operations, a move that opens the door to US-led strikes on Colombian territory, which Hegseth said has already been discussed . https://countervortex.org/blog/colombia-authorizes-joint-us-strikes/ - [2026-08-14] the new government of Abelardo de la Espriella has agreed to carry out joint military operations with US forces, which could involve US strikes against targets on Colombian territory , though this reportedly bypassed required Senate approval under Colombia's constitution. https://justiceforcolombia.org/colombia-confirms-joint-military-operations-with-us/ - [2026-09-28] Colombia joined the "Shield of the Americas"/Americas Counter Cartel Coalition, becoming its 19th member, with SOUTHCOM's Joint Task Force Western Hemisphere coordinating regional military activity against designated narcoterrorist groups. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shield_of_the_Americas - [2026-10-04] The US conducted a lethal kinetic strike by Joint Task Force Western Hemisphere on a "go-fast vessel" in the Caribbean (not on Colombian land), killing four alleged narco-traffickers — part of the ongoing maritime campaign, not a land strike. https://www.southcom.mil/News/PressReleases/Article/4618776/lethal-kinetic-strike-october-4-2026/ - [2026-10-05] During a visit to Panama in August, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that Colombia, Guatemala and Honduras had agreed to joint counter-crime military operations on their soil , though Guatemala disputed the claim. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/5/latest-us-military-strike-on-alleged-drug-boat-kills-four-in-caribbean - [2026-10-06] Reporting notes Washington is shifting toward land operations: Ecuador has already taken part, Colombia's new government has joined the alliance , with a US-Ecuador strike on a border camp (with Colombian group ties) having already occurred (March 2026, inside Ecuador, not Colombia). https://www.latintimes.com/235-dead-us-boat-strikes-still-no-public-proof-599880 - [2026-10-07] Colombia's president convened an "urgent meeting" with the US to accelerate a results-based antidrug strategy, seeking US re-certification of Colombia's counternarcotics cooperation — signaling deepening coordination rather than confrontation. https://semana.com/politica/articulo/abelardo-de-la-espriella-cito-reunion-urgente-para-meterle-el-acelerador-a-estrategia-antidrogas-con-ee-uu/202614 - [2026-10-07] Colombia reportedly accounts for over half of drone-attack zones in Latin America; Colombia arranged to receive three MQ-9A Reaper surveillance and strike drones on loan from Washington in August 2026 , used so far against domestic armed groups by Colombian forces, not confirmed as US-operated strikes on Colombian soil. https://www.latinpost.com/articles/167593/20261006/colombia-accounts-53-all-drone-attack-zones-latin-america-what-that-means-regions-security.htm - [2026-10-08] Domestic political tension is rising inside Colombia (Petro-aligned groups planning an October 14 general strike against de la Espriella over wages), but this is unrelated to US military action and does not bear on strike likelihood. https://www.breitbart.com/latin-america/2026/10/08/colombia-leftist-ex-president-petro-threatens-with-general-strike-if-govt-doesnt-hike-minimum-wage/ - [2026-10-09 (tracker, continuously updated)] The Wikipedia tracker on Operation Southern Spear strikes records strikes on vessels in the Caribbean/Pacific and land strikes "within Venezuela" (and a disputed one in Ecuador), but lists no confirmed US strike on Colombian soil to date. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_alleged_drug_traffickers_during_Operation_Southern_Spear NOT FOUND: No confirmed, credibly-reported US drone/missile/air strike physically landing on Colombian soil has occurred as of 2026-10-09. No specific date for a planned/imminent US land strike in Colombia was found; reporting indicates close bilateral coordination and "door open" statements but no scheduled strike. BOTTOM LINE: Since August 2026 Colombia has shifted from adversarial (under Petro) to a cooperative US ally under President de la Espriella, who has authorized joint operations and publicly invited US military support against cartels/guerrillas — raising the structural likelihood of a coordinated, possibly jointly-claimed strike on Colombian soil before year-end, but as of today no such strike has occurred or been credibly reported, with US kinetic action still confined to maritime vessel strikes and Venezuelan land targets.

- [2026-01-04] Immediately after the US captured Maduro in Venezuela, Trump told reporters a military operation in Colombia "sounds good to me," marking the first time a sitting US president suggested openly welcoming a strike on Colombian soil; this was outside-view precedent-setting rhetoric rather than action. Source: https://www.jpost.com/international/article-882334 - [2026-01-08] Within days, tensions de-escalated: Trump and Petro held a 35-minute call described as positive, and Trump invited Petro to the White House, showing that past Trump "military threat" rhetoric toward Colombia has historically resolved into diplomacy rather than strikes. Source: https://www.npr.org/2026/01/08/nx-s1-5670927/trump-colombian-president-white-house - [2026-02-03] The Trump-Petro White House meeting occurred as scheduled, with Trump calling Petro "terrific" after a two-hour Oval Office meeting , reinforcing the pattern that heated threats toward Colombia under Petro did not convert into strikes. - [2026-03-06] As a comparable/reference-class event, the US expanded Operation Southern Spear's land-strike campaign to Ecuador, bombing a Comandos de la Frontera camp "near the Colombian border" as part of what Pentagon officials called "Operation Total Extermination" — showing the US was already willing to strike cartel land targets in neighboring countries months before any Colombia strike occurred. Source: https://theintercept.com/2026/03/23/trump-operation-total-extermination-ecuador-colombia-cuba/ - [2026-08-07] Colombia's government changed: right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella (who won the smallest-margin runoff in Colombian history) was inaugurated, replacing Petro, fundamentally shifting the reference class from "adversarial relationship" to "allied/cooperative relationship" with Washington. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abelardo_de_la_Espriella - [2026-08-12] Colombia's new government and the US signed a formal military-cooperation pact (the "Americas Counter Cartel Coalition"); the new government of Abelardo de la Espriella agreed to carry out joint military operations with US forces, which could involve US strikes against targets on Colombian territory , the closest the base rate has come to an openly agreed strike framework. Source: https://justiceforcolombia.org/colombia-confirms-joint-military-operations-with-us/ - [2026-08-14] A retired Colombian police general publicly warned that any unilateral deployment of US troops conducting operations on Colombian soil "would constitute a clear unlawful intervention," indicating continued domestic/legal friction even under the new cooperative government. Source: https://watchingamerica.com/2026/08/18/us-interference-in-colombia/ - [2026-09-ish] As outside-view comparison, Operation Southern Spear's broader campaign had by this point killed "roughly 150 people" (later reports cite up to 221) in boat strikes across the Caribbean/Pacific, and had already executed confirmed land strikes in Venezuela (Dec 2025–Jan 2026) and Ecuador (March 2026), establishing a track record where the administration escalates from threats to actual cross-border land strikes roughly 2–3 months after initial threats in other countries. Source: https://theowp.org/u-s-and-colombia-discuss-joint-strikes-as-a-new-right-wing-government-takes-power/ - [2026-10-06] Most recent dated evidence shows continuing internal security crises in Colombia (400kg of explosives seized near Cali, attributed by de la Espriella to armed groups) but no confirmed US strike on Colombian soil as of this date; cooperation remains framed as joint/Colombian-led rather than unilateral US strikes. Source: https://riotimesonline.com/colombia-explosives-cali-cauca-seizure-2026 - [2026 ongoing] Wikipedia's "Operation Southern Spear" tracker lists Colombia as a "Shield of the Americas" belligerent/partner "since August 2026," alongside Ecuador, Argentina, and others, but does not list Colombia among locations where a US land strike has actually occurred (only Venezuela and Ecuador are listed as land-strike locations). Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Southern_Spear BOTTOM LINE: The reference class of "US threatens/agrees to strike a Latin American partner nation" has a mixed track record: threats against Colombia under Petro (Jan 2026) de-escalated into diplomacy without a strike, but the operation's actual land-strike base rate against similarly-postured countries (Venezuela, Ecuador) shows threats-to-strike intervals of weeks to a few months once a formal cooperation/strike framework exists — and Colombia now has such a framework (since Aug 2026) that Venezuela and Ecuador lacked before their strikes, making the outside view somewhat elevated versus early 2026 but still short of a confirmed strike as of the most recent reporting. NOT FOUND: No primary DoD/Southcom statement or credible news report confirming an actual US strike that physically impacted Colombian soil as of the search cutoff (early October 2026); no polling or prediction-market history (beyond the contract itself, which was excluded per instructions) tracking forecaster accuracy on this specific question type.

YES means: a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike physically lands on Colombian soil (or is credibly reported/claimed by Trump or the US government to have done so) between now and December 31, 2026 ET, as confirmed by consensus credible reporting within two days of the deadline. - [2026-08-12/14] Colombia's defense ministry and President de la Espriella formally authorized joint operations with US forces, with Hegseth stating Colombia's Minister of Defense requested the deployment of US troops on Colombian territory, and that "Colombia has already requested that the War Department join Colombia in its fight against narco-terrorism, authorizing joint military operations to destroy terrorists and terrorist networks." This is an open-door legal/political framework Venezuela and Ecuador lacked before their strikes occurred. - [2026-08-13] Asked directly whether the US is prepared to strike FARC dissidents or the ELN alongside Colombia, Hegseth answered simply: "Yes," saying designated terrorist organisations, with partner governments, would be legitimate targets. This is the most explicit public commitment yet to striking groups operating specifically inside Colombia. - [2026-10-06] The New York Times reported, per two US officials, that the US military has deployed several MQ-9 Reaper attack drones from Africa to Colombia and Ecuador amid expanding operations against Latin American drug cartels, per NYT reporting of October 6 — i.e., strike-capable US drone hardware is now physically present inside Colombia, a key operational prerequisite that did not exist before. - [2026-09-30] SOUTHCOM commander Gen. Francis Donovan told the Wall Street Journal "Do I see land strikes as options? Yes," ... "We want all options at the table," describing a spectrum from safe-house raids to direct kinetic strikes across his nearly-20-nation area of responsibility that includes Colombia. - [2026-09 (reported 10-08)] As part of the same expansion, the State Department redirected $52 million in Foreign Military Financing from Europe and the Middle East to Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Panama in September , materially resourcing the partners most likely to host joint strike operations. - [2026-10-05] Colombia's own first airstrike under de la Espriella hit ELN targets in Catatumbo (a Colombian, not US, strike), and the government launched Joint Task Force Urano against ELN pipeline theft in Cesar/Norte de Santander — demonstrating an active, escalating kinetic air campaign against the exact groups (ELN, FARC dissidents) that Hegseth named as joint US-Colombian targets, onto which a US-claimed or US-conducted strike could be grafted or could occur in parallel. - [2026-03-06] The clearest precedent/mechanism is Ecuador: American and Ecuadorian forces carried out "lethal kinetic strikes" against a Comandos de la Frontera training camp in Ecuador near the Colombian border — the first confirmed action by U.S. troops since its anti-cartel mission was announced, with the Pentagon stating "At the request of Ecuador, the Department of War executed targeted action to advance our shared objective of dismantling narco-terrorist networks." Colombia now has an equivalent or stronger legal invitation in place, and US special forces/warships are already active along the Ecuador-Colombia border per a local Ecuadorian governor's account (2026-08-25). - [2026-10-08] Latin America analyst Adam Isacson (Washington Office on Latin America) is quoted saying land strikes are very much a possibility and could come at the border between Ecuador and Colombia — naming the Ecuador-Colombia frontier (not just Colombia's interior) as the most likely next flashpoint, which would satisfy the resolution criteria the moment any ordnance impacts Colombian-side territory. - [2026-10-07] Gen. Dagvin Anderson (AFRICOM) and SOUTHCOM leadership have been coordinating a hemisphere-wide strategy; officials from European Command, Africa Command, Southern Command, Northern Command, and Special Operations Command met in Washington to coordinate a global strategy against international cartels , indicating institutional momentum toward cross-border kinetic action rather than a one-off. - [2026-10-07] De la Espriella personally convened an urgent meeting to accelerate joint antidrug strategy with Washington (already in colleagues' reports), consistent with a government actively seeking more, not less, direct US involvement — removing the diplomatic brake that stopped the Petro-era threats from becoming strikes. BOTTOM LINE: The single most likely path to YES is a US-claimed or jointly-claimed kinetic strike against ELN or FARC-dissident ("Comandos de la Frontera") targets inside Colombia — most plausibly near the porous Ecuador-Colombia border where US drones, special forces, and strike-capable MQ-9 Reapers are already positioned and where SOUTHCOM's commander has explicitly kept "land strikes" on the table; all major political/legal prerequisites (host-government invitation, troop and drone presence, named target groups, precedent in Ecuador/Venezuela) are now satisfied, so the gap to YES is purely one of timing and a trigger event before December 31. NOT FOUND: No specific scheduled date, military order, or already-executed strike on Colombian soil has been reported as of 2026-10-09; all evidence points to capability and authorization being in place, not to an event having occurred.

YES means: a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike physically impacts ground territory in Colombia (land, rivers, lakes, ports) by December 31, 2026 ET, as announced or credibly reported, with the date confirmed by consensus reporting within two days of the deadline. - [2026-08-14] Even the most forward-leaning cooperation step taken so far — de la Espriella's authorization of joint operations — was "in violation of the Colombian constitution under which it is up to the Senate to decide on the presence of foreign troops on Colombian territory," meaning the legal basis for any joint US strike remains contested domestically. https://justiceforcolombia.org/colombia-confirms-joint-military-operations-with-us/ - [2026-08-28 reported] A Medellín court has actively taken up this exact legal question: a tutela over Colombia's authorisation of foreign military operations asks who granted it and under which law, since Article 173 grants only the Senate power to permit transit of foreign troops. Senate president Honorio Henríquez himself said on 13 August that troop entry needs legislative approval — no such approval has been reported as granted. https://www.riotimesonline.com/colombia-tutela-foreign-military-operations-2026/ - [2026-09-08] Even Washington's own top diplomat hedged on legality: Secretary of State Rubio stated the United States is "willing to do everything necessary" in compliance with Colombian law to carry out joint military operations, though such operations could require Colombian Senate approval — an open admission that the legal gate is not yet closed. https://legis1.com/news/colombia-us-security-strategy-colombias-new - [2026-09-25] Rubio's visit produced diplomatic and economic MOUs (nuclear cooperation, critical minerals) but no announcement of new security assistance beyond rhetoric, and the CRS report framed outcomes as still pending congressional action on FY2027 appropriations — i.e., no concrete military-strike mechanism was finalized. https://legis1.com/news/colombia-us-security-strategy-colombias-new - [2026-10-07] Colombia's own domestic legal authority to conduct aerial bombardments against armed groups does not yet exist: the proposed anti-terrorist statute that would legally empower the Colombian government to conduct aerial bombardments against [terrorist] camps is still only a draft that must win approval in the First Committees of the Colombian Congress and withstand intense scrutiny from a Constitutional Court that has historically taken a cautious stance on executive overreach — a months-long process, not something resolvable by December 31. https://colombiaone.com/2026/10/07/de-la-espriella-terrorist/ - [2026-10-08] A related, narrower anti-terrorism bill adopting US terror designations was only just due to be presented on Thursday, 8 October to the Criminal Policy Council, a state body that advises on crime laws, which will review it first, and even then must pass Congress by an absolute majority within one legislative year and then clear the Constitutional Court, with the government merely hoping it is "working before the end of 2026" — underscoring that the legal architecture enabling bombardment-style operations is unfinished. https://www.riotimesonline.com/colombia-anti-terrorism-bill-us-terror-listings-2026/ - [2026-10-05] Despite a year of "land strikes coming soon" rhetoric, the actual campaign in October remains maritime-only: the October 4 SOUTHCOM strike was "a lethal, kinetic strike on a go-fast vessel operating along established narco-trafficking routes in the Caribbean," not a land strike anywhere, let alone Colombia. https://riotimesonline.com/us-alleged-drug-boat-strike-caribbean-2026 - [2026-10-06] Even the reported expansion of lethal land capability into the region is still preparatory, not executed: NYT reporting says the US military has deployed several MQ-9 Reaper attack drones from Africa to Colombia and Ecuador amid expanding operations against Latin American drug cartels, though it is unknown how many of them have already arrived in Colombia and Ecuador — i.e., even drone basing/positioning, let alone a strike, is unconfirmed as operational on Colombian soil. https://en.iz.ru/en/2179570/2026-10-06/nyt-has-learned-about-dispatch-us-attack-drones-colombia-and-ecuador - [2026-09 (filed ~Sept)] A separate domestic legal fight shows how slow Colombia's judicial/military bombing apparatus moves even for operations Colombia's own forces (not the US) conduct: a government appeal on bombing rules near child-recruit sites goes to the Superior Tribunal of Bogotá, the city's appeals court, which has 20 days from receiving the file; reporters expect one to two months in practice, illustrating systemic slow-moving legal review around any kinetic air action in Colombia. https://www.riotimesonline.com/colombia-bombing-rules-government-appeal-september-2026/ - [2026-10-07] Political energy inside Colombia is currently absorbed by legislative housekeeping (submission/surrender law for armed groups) rather than war-footing: the "Law of Submission" bill is only expected to be filed before the end of the third week of October... and must pass four debates, two in the Senate and two in the House of Representatives, reinforcing that Bogotá's near-term legislative bandwidth is consumed by non-strike measures. https://www.riotimesonline.com/colombia-submission-law-criminal-groups-2026/ - [2026-10-08, ongoing] Opposition inside Colombia continues to contest the legal premise for any US-linked strike framework: Historic Pact senator Iván Cepeda said giving domestic effect to foreign states' decisions would breach Colombia's judicial sovereignty, signaling continued political/legal resistance that could further slow or block any strike authorization before year-end. https://www.riotimesonline.com/colombia-anti-terrorism-bill-us-terror-listings-2026/ - [2026-10-09, tracker] As of the most current tracking, the operation's land-strike precedent set in Venezuela and Ecuador has not been extended to Colombia; the Wikipedia Operation Southern Spear tracker records land strikes only in Venezuela and a disputed Ecuador incident, with Colombia listed only as a coalition "partner," not a strike location, consistent with maritime-only action. BOTTOM LINE: Despite accelerating political alignment and rhetoric, the concrete legal infrastructure needed on both the Colombian side (Senate transit approval, pending anti-terrorism/bombardment statute, active court challenges) and even US framing (Rubio's own caveat about needing Colombian Senate approval) remains unresolved and moving on a timeline of months, not weeks — while actual US kinetic action in the region through October 9 remains confined to Caribbean/Pacific vessel strikes and Venezuela/Ecuador land strikes, with no Colombia land strike reported, supporting a NO resolution absent a sudden escalation. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any scheduled or imminent US strike date inside Colombia; no confirmation that the Colombian Senate has granted Article 173 transit/operations approval; no confirmation that the anti-terrorism/bombardment statute has cleared Congress or the Constitutional Court as of October 9, 2026.