Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, its first rate hike since 2023, in a unanimous 12-0 vote — this is the one hike that has occurred so far in 2026. As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to execute transactions in accordance with a target range of 3-3/4 to 4 percent. - [2026-09-16] 16 of 18 SEP participants expected at least one additional 25bp hike by year end, with the median year-end policy rate at approximately 4.1%, corresponding to a 4.00%-4.25% target range. - [2026-09-16] The Fed's updated 2026 projections showed GDP revised up to 2.3%, unemployment revised down to 4.1%, and PCE inflation revised up to 3.7%. - [2026-10-07] FOMC minutes from the September meeting were released, confirming broad hawkish consensus. All 19 Federal Reserve officials backed the September rate hike to 3.75%-4.00%, and most officials also expected another hike by year end. - [2026-10-07/08] Despite the hawkish minutes, near-term hike odds for the next meeting fell: Fed leaders have since said they can wait, and traders price just a 20% to 25% chance of an October hike. - [2026-10-07] Fed staff estimated PCE inflation at 3.8% year-over-year in August, with core PCE at 3.4%, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in July and August. - [2026-10-07] H.15 data confirm the effective federal funds rate has settled at 3.88% (midpoint of the 3.75–4.00% range) since the September move, with no change through October 6. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/) - [2026-10-08] Kalshi's "Fed decision in October" contract shows an 83% chance the Fed holds rates at the Oct 27–28 meeting versus a 16% chance of a 25 bps hike. (https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26oct) - [2026-10-08] Futures-market pricing (streetstats) shows the current effective federal funds rate at 3.88%, with futures markets pricing the rate to rise to about 4.1% by January 2027, indicating expectations of further tightening. - [2026-10-27/28] Next scheduled FOMC meeting (Oct 27–28, 2026) will include a rate decision at 2:00 PM ET on Oct 28; no Summary of Economic Projections is scheduled for this meeting. (https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/) - [2026-12-08/09] Final scheduled FOMC meeting of the year is Dec 8–9, 2026, which includes a new Summary of Economic Projections ("SEP") and is explicitly covered by this contract's resolution rules. (https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/) - [2026-10-07] Minutes noted drivers of hawkishness: most participants judged that another hike would probably be appropriate by the end of the year, citing upside inflation risks, a resilient economy, and the possibility that strong AI investment could add to demand pressures. BOTTOM LINE: One 25-bps hike has already been delivered in 2026 (Sept 16, to 3.75%–4.00%), satisfying a "will at least 1 hike happen" framing outright; however, if the contract requires exactly one hike for the year, the outcome now hinges on the Oct 28 and Dec 9 meetings, where officials have signaled another hike is likely by year-end even though near-term futures/Kalshi pricing puts only ~16–25% odds on a hike specifically at the October meeting. NOT FOUND: No confirmation yet of the Fed's decision at the Oct 27–28, 2026 meeting (it has not yet occurred as of this report); no official Dec 2026 dot plot or pre-meeting guidance beyond the September SEP; no evidence of any emergency inter-meeting rate action in 2026.

- [2026-09-16] The Federal Reserve's official press release confirms the FOMC raised the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, 2026, its first rate increase since 2023, voted 12–0 — https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm - [2026-09-16] Secondary reporting corroborates the official action: the Federal Reserve concluded its sixth meeting of the year by raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4%, the first time the benchmark rate has been increased since 2023. — https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/16/feds-interest-rate-decision-september-16-2026 - [2026-09-16] This means at least one 25bp hike has already occurred in calendar year 2026, well before today's date (2026-10-09) and well before the December 31, 2026 deadline — https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm - [2026-09-16] Updated Summary of Economic Projections shows a hawkish committee: the median participant now expects the fed funds rate to hike an additional 25bps ending 2026 at 4.1%, and sixteen of eighteen participants expect one additional rate hike this year, while four participants project two additional hikes. — https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-09-16] Analyst commentary reinforces this: a large majority of the FOMC indicated that they expected another rate hike before the end of 2026. JPMorgan's strategist stated a further 25bp hike by year-end was "already priced into markets." — https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/federal-reserve-raises-rates-officials-signal-one-more-hike-in-2026 - [Historical base rate] In the broader reference class of "Fed rate hikes within a given calendar year," outcomes depend entirely on the macro/inflation regime: hikes were common in 2004–2006, 2015–2018, and 2022–2023 tightening cycles, but zero hikes occurred in most years from 2008–2015 and 2019–2021 (cutting/hold regimes). This underscores that base rates are regime-dependent rather than a fixed annual frequency, and the 2026 regime (post-cut, re-hiking due to persistent inflation) is itself an unusual and recent shift — no single authoritative "average" applies. - [2026 regime shift] Forbes' historical tracker notes the abruptness of the reversal: it's been almost a year since the Fed changed rates, with this September hike marking the first rate hike in three years; last September, former Fed Chair Jerome Powell began a series of rate cuts, and in 2025 there were three consecutive 25-basis-point rate cuts (September, October, December). — https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history-1/ - [2026-09-16] Remaining 2026 FOMC meetings are confirmed as October 27–28 and December 8–9, giving two more opportunities for a second hike, though only one additional hike (not two) is needed for this "1 hike" threshold to already be satisfied — https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/ - [Forecast track record note] Pre-meeting market pricing was a reasonably good predictor in this cycle: markets had priced in a better than 90% chance that the FOMC would hike in September, and the hike occurred as priced, suggesting market-implied odds (e.g., CME FedWatch-style pricing) have had decent short-horizon accuracy this year. — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html - [2026-07-29] Prior to September, dissent was already building toward hiking: minutes show three members, Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, voted against the July hold, preferring to raise the target range by 1/4 percentage point. This signals the hiking bias had outside-view momentum building for months before it materialized. — https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm BOTTOM LINE: The relevant "base rate" for this question is moot: a confirmed, officially-documented 25bp hike already occurred on 2026-09-16, satisfying a "1 hike in 2026" threshold outright per primary Fed sources, and FOMC dot-plot/market pricing as of September pointed toward an even higher probability of a second hike by December, not a reversal. NOT FOUND: No long-run quantitative historical base-rate study (e.g., "% of years since 1990 with at least one FOMC hike") was located in search results; also no explicit current CME FedWatch probability for October/December 2026 meetings was found in the sources retrieved.

YES means: at least one 25-basis-point Fed rate hike occurs at some point during calendar year 2026 (a threshold already satisfied once it happens, and which cannot be reversed even if subsequent meetings hold or cut). - [2026-09-16] The FOMC's official action already delivered the qualifying event for this threshold: a confirmed 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00%, meaning the "at least 1 hike in 2026" condition is mechanically satisfied regardless of what happens at the two remaining 2026 meetings (Oct 27-28 and Dec 8-9), per the Fed's own October calendar confirming no further ambiguity about meeting dates — https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm - [2026-10-07] FOMC minutes released this week show the hawkish case remains intact even after the hike: officials stated that "most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end," reinforcing that the September move was not a one-off outlier but part of a continuing tightening bias — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/06/stock-market-today-live-updates.html - [2026-10-01] Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and NY Fed President John Williams have shifted market expectations away from an October move specifically, but notably Williams himself said "one further upward adjustment" in the policy rate may be appropriate late this year — confirming officials still expect a second hike, just timed for December rather than October — https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-may-time-next-interest-173209828.html - [2026-10-01] Reuters reports that "global brokerages now largely expect the Fed to hike rates only once more this year, in December rather than in October," which — combined with the already-realized September hike — would in fact produce two hikes in 2026, comfortably clearing the "at least 1" bar for this contract — https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-10-01/fed-officials-wash-away-market-bets-october-rate-increase - [2026-10-07] Futures-market pricing cited by Yahoo Finance shows "only a 17% chance of a rate hike this month, but a roughly 70% chance in December," indicating markets see a second 2026 hike as the modal outcome even though October itself is unlikely — https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/the-fed-was-unanimous-about-raising-rates-in-september-economic-signals-have-since-changed-184839972.html - [2026-10-07] US News reporting adds a political-calendar mechanism for why December, not October, is the likely second-hike venue: "the October meeting comes close to the November midterms and the Fed may decide not to act so close to an election. That leaves December as the more likely option" — https://usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2026-10-07/fed-telegraphs-another-interest-rate-hike-this-year - [2026-09-29] Forbes contributor reporting from late September described fixed-income markets as "firmly pricing in back-to-back Federal Reserve rate hikes for October and December 2026," with Fed Governors Michael Barr and Lisa Cook cited as reinforcing the hawkish stance on inflation from AI-driven demand, oil prices, and geopolitical risk — a more aggressive scenario than current October pricing, but illustrative of the hawkish momentum underlying this cycle — https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/09/29/what-to-expect-from-interest-rates-for-the-rest-of-2026/ - [2026-10-07] Minutes language cited by CNBC shows the inflation rationale persisting: officials noted "a higher policy rate would help prevent sector-specific price increases stemming from energy market disruptions and AI-related demand from broadening out," underscoring that the structural case for hiking (not just the completed September hike) remains active heading into Q4 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/06/stock-market-today-live-updates.html BOTTOM LINE: For a literal "at least 1 hike in 2026" framing, YES is already locked in by the confirmed September 16, 2026 FOMC hike to 3.75%-4.00%, a fact that cannot be undone by any subsequent hold or cut; moreover, Fed minutes, official speeches, and futures pricing as of early October continue to point toward a second hike in December, which would only reinforce (not threaten) this outcome. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any rate cut or reversal of the September hike; no primary-source indication that the Fed considers the September action invalid or reversible; no confirmation yet of the October 28 or December 9 2026 decisions since they have not occurred.

YES means: exactly one 25-bps Fed hike occurs in calendar-year 2026 — i.e., the September 16 move is not followed by any additional 25-bp (or larger) increase at the October 27–28 or December 8–9 meetings, and no emergency inter-meeting hike occurs before Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - [2026-10-09] Kalshi's and Polymarket's dedicated "Another hike before 2027?" aggregate price stands at 80% Yes (Kalshi 80.5¢, Polymarket 79.5¢), meaning markets assign only roughly a 1-in-5 chance that 2026 ends with just the single September hike — https://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/ - [2026-10-09] On a meeting-by-meeting basis, Kalshi prices the Dec 9 decision at 76% hike vs 25% hold, up 2 points in the prior 24 hours, directly implying the "exactly one hike" outcome is a minority scenario — https://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/ - [2026-10-09] Kalshi's standalone December contract (separate page) shows "Hike 25bps" at 73% (up 2 points) and "Fed maintains rate" at only 26% (down 1 point), with "Hike >25bps" priced at 3% — confirming a hold in December is the clear minority case, not the base case, as of this reading — https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26dec - [2026-10-09] Even the lower-probability October meeting carries a non-trivial 16-18% hike chance (Kalshi 17¢, Polymarket 15.5¢); if the Fed hikes in October, this contract would resolve NO immediately (per the rules' "impossible" early-resolution clause) well before December even needs to be decided — https://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/ - [2026-10-07] Independent tracker data (admiralmarkets) shows futures-implied odds of "at least one hike by Dec 9" at about 81% as of Oct 5, consistent with the Kalshi/Polymarket readings and reinforcing that markets see the December meeting, not a pause, as the likely site of a second 2026 move — https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fomc-minutes-october-2026 - [2026-10-09] A third-party tracker (rateprobability.com) shows the market-implied path pricing roughly 2.3 additional 25bp increments by the Dec 9 meeting relative to today's effective rate, a more aggressive tightening path than a single additional hike would imply — https://rateprobability.com/fed - [2026-09-16 cited in colleague reports, extended] The September SEP already showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one more hike by year end and 4 of 18 expecting two more hikes; combined with the hawkish Oct 7 minutes, officials' own dots point toward a second hike as their base case, not a pause — https://defirate.com (corroborating Schwab's 2026-09-16 reporting) - [2026-10-07] CNBC reporting independently notes markets "expect the central bank to stay on hold" specifically for the imminent October decision, which is consistent with the NO case resting on timing (hike expected in December, not October) rather than on no hike occurring at all in 2026 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/inflation-fears-on-the-rise-as-one-year-outlook-in-fed-survey-hits-highest-since-may-2023.html - [2026-10-09 mechanism] Because one hike has already occurred, the contract's own rules ("resolve early to No if more hikes have already occurred than the strike") mean that any hike at either remaining 2026 meeting (Oct 28 or Dec 9) is sufficient and necessary to flip this market to NO — there is no scenario requiring both meetings to hike; a single additional move anywhere before Dec 31 closes it out NO. - [2026-10-09] The only path to YES is a full skip at both remaining meetings (and no emergency action), which current pricing implies has roughly a 20-27% probability based on the complement of the "another hike" aggregates (100% − 80% ≈ 20%, or 100% − 73-76% ≈ 24-27% using the December-only figures) — https://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26dec BOTTOM LINE: For a contract requiring exactly one 2026 hike, the strongest NO case is that market-implied odds (Kalshi/Polymarket, Oct 9 readings) put a second hike at roughly 73-80% likely by Dec 9, meaning the dominant scenario is NOW two hikes in 2026, not one — the only way to YES is a clean skip at both the Oct 28 and Dec 9 meetings, priced at only ~20-27%. NOT FOUND: No evidence yet of the Fed's actual Oct 28 decision (hasn't happened); no official December Fed dot plot (SEP not released until the Dec 8-9 meeting itself); no confirmation of any emergency inter-meeting action.