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Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority? — Yes
38%
Agent
37%
Market Price
+1.0%
Edge
49%
Confidence
18,685
Volume
1.0c
Spread
174
Days to resolution
1
Markets in event
final rationale
Mean of 5 draws (0.40, 0.36, 0.37, 0.37, 0.40). (0) Not resolved: no 2027 bill yet on wyoleg.gov; draft 27 LSO 10 (Digital Asset Authority, a direct match to the criteria) passed its interim select committee 5-0 on 2026-09-29 but still needs two chambers plus governor. (a) ~5.7 months left; the 2027 General Session runs Jan 12 to ~early March, so timing is feasible. (b) Status quo = No until enactment. (c) No: Freedom Caucus-led House objects to digital-ID/payment-infrastructure scope or CBDC optics; fiscal/custody design fights stall it; recent data show fewer than half of interim committee bills became law in 2025; a new governor replacing Gordon may be less supportive. (d) Yes: committee bill is introduced day one, follows Wyoming's strong blockchain-bill enactment record (e.g., SF0076 in ~2 months), and is signed in March. Anchoring on Kalshi ~33-37%, committee passage is a positive but likely priced; I land slightly above the market at 40%.
price vs. prediction
market price
agent forecast at t+0
10 follow-ups
1. Planner Opus 5.5 · picks the research tools
Tools chosen:
kalshi_direct
resolution_source
kalshi_related
polymarket_related
article_search
Planner reasoning
This is a Kalshi question about Wyoming state legislation. The 2027 general session runs from about January to early March, so the key facts are the price anchor, any interim committee bill draft (such as from the Select Committee on Blockchain), and the Wyoming Legislature site as the resolution source. Federal congress_bills doesn't apply, so I'll use one targeted article search on the interim committee draft bill, plus cross-market checks.
2. Research parallel tool calls + 4 web research loops (Sonnet 5) · read raw by the forecasters
at a glance
RESEARCH DIGEST (built in code: tool summaries and each report's bottom line; the forecasters read the full tool outputs and reports)
Tools
- kalshi_direct: ## This Market's Kalshi Data **Yes** (KXLOCALLAW-WYDAA-27APR01) - Current price (probability): 37.00% (live; bid 32% / ask 33%) - 7-day price change: +8.00% - 30-day price change: -15.00% - Average daily volume: 1099 contracts - Price range: 20.00% - 53.00% - Data points: 17 days
- resolution_source: already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=False; last_updated=unknown. The fetched page only shows a generic Legislative Service Office navigation/listing for the Wyoming 2027 legislative session, with no bill text or legislative action details related to digital assets or the Wyoming Stable Token Commission.
- kalshi_related: 1 related markets / summaries. series KXLOCALLAW: 0 markets (skipped 12 no-signal) | keyword 'Wyoming digital asset': ok | keyword 'stable token': no matches
- polymarket_related: Polymarket search over 2 keyword(s), kept 10 matches. keyword 'Wyoming stable token': 5 markets | keyword 'Wyoming digital asset': 5 markets
- article_search: Fetched 12 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=180d). 'Wyoming Select Committee on Blockchain digital asset authority draft bill 2027': 8 articles | 'Wyoming stable token commission expanded powers interim committee': 8 articles
Research loops, bottom lines
- current state: A committee-sponsored bill (27 LSO 10, "Wyoming Digital Asset Authority") that directly matches the resolution criteria passed its interim Select Committee on 2026-09-29 with amendments and is positioned for introduction when the 2027 General Session convenes on 2027-01-12 and runs to roughly 2027-03-08 — comfortably before the April 1, 2027 deadline — giving it a clear, time-feasible legislative path, though full passage and gubernatorial action are not yet complete.
- base rate: The reference class — Wyoming's Select Committee on Blockchain/Capital Financing digital-asset bills from 2019–2026 — shows an unusually high historical enactment rate (most committee-advanced digital-asset bills have become law, typically within one legislative session of committee passage), and this specific bill (27 LSO 10) has already passed committee with a lopsided vote ahead of the Jan 12, 2027 session, which comfortably fits within the Apr 1, 2027 deadline; the outside view favors Yes.
- yes case: The single most likely path to Yes is already substantially de-risked: 27 LSO 10 cleared its interim committee with amendments on 2026-09-29, the committee itself holds direct statutory sponsorship authority (no separate Management Council vote required), Wyoming's own procedural rules let committee bills be introduced on day one of the Jan 12, 2027 session and move through a 40-day general session with no supermajority barrier, and the committee's own 2023 precedent (SF0076) shows a ~2-month pa
- no case: Despite committee passage, this specific reference class (Wyoming interim-committee bills) has recently failed to become law more often than not, the committee's own staff and commissioners identified unresolved structural/fiduciary/funding problems as recently as July 2026, the September vote was far from unanimous, and no fiscal note, formal bill number, or gubernatorial endorsement yet exists — leaving real room for floor amendment fights, Freedom Caucus procedural blocking, or appropriations
tools
| tool | status | time | items | summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi_direct | OK | 0.3s | 1 | ## This Market's Kalshi Data **Yes** (KXLOCALLAW-WYDAA-27APR01) - Current price (probability): 37.00% (live; bid 32% / ask 33%) - 7-day price change: +8.00% - 30-day price change: -15.00% - Average daily volume: 1099 contracts - Price range: 20.00% - 53.00% - Data points: 17 days |
| resolution_source | OK | 3.0s | 1 | already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=False; last_updated=unknown. The fetched page only shows a generic Legislative Service Office navigation/listing for the Wyoming 2027 legislative session, with no bill text or legislative action details related to digital assets or the Wyoming Stable Token |
| kalshi_related | OK | 6.0s | 1 | 1 related markets / summaries. series KXLOCALLAW: 0 markets (skipped 12 no-signal) | keyword 'Wyoming digital asset': ok | keyword 'stable token': no matches |
| polymarket_related | OK | 0.6s | 10 | Polymarket search over 2 keyword(s), kept 10 matches. keyword 'Wyoming stable token': 5 markets | keyword 'Wyoming digital asset': 5 markets |
| article_search | OK | 46.3s | 12 | Fetched 12 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=180d). 'Wyoming Select Committee on Blockchain digital asset authority draft bill 2027': 8 articles | 'Wyoming stable token commission expanded powers interim committee': 8 articles |
research loops
·
4/4 ok ·
16 searches ·
4 page reads
| dimension | status | time | searches | page reads | report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current state | OK | 36s | 4 | 2 | 6195 chars |
| base rate | OK | 32s | 4 | 2 | 5001 chars |
| yes case | SNIPPETS | 38s | 4 | 0 | 5990 chars · no page read; snippets only |
| no case | SNIPPETS | 37s | 4 | 0 | 6390 chars · no page read; snippets only |
report: current state
- [2026-07-14] The Wyoming Select Committee on Blockchain, Financial Technology and Digital Innovation Technology began reviewing bill draft 27 LSO 10, which would
create a Wyoming Digital Asset Authority to coordinate state digital asset work, oversee issuance and custody of government digital assets, and administer digital identity and payment infrastructure
, with members debating board size and appointment methods. (https://citizenportal.ai/articles/8502487/wyoming/legislative/committees/select-committees-task-force/select-committee-on-capital-financing-investments/committee-reviews-draft-to-create-wyoming-digital-asset-authority-members-debate-board-makeup-and-oversight)
- [2026-09-29] The Select Committee formally
voted to advance legislation to reconstitute the Wyoming Stable Token Commission as the Wyoming Digital Asset Authority (27 LSO 10 v0.9) and adopted two committee amendments before passage
, with a roll call of
5 ayes, 2 excused and 1 absent
. (https://citizenportal.ai/articles/10410981/Wyoming/Executive/Organizations/Budget-Department/Committee-advances-digital-asset-authority-bill-with-custody-and-liaison-amendments)
- [2026-09-29] The amended bill added
language allowing the authority to custody government-issued digital assets or have them held by a qualified financial institution under a written custodial agreement; the committee also added two non-voting legislative liaison positions (one from each chamber)
. (https://citizenportal.ai/articles/10410981/Wyoming/Executive/Organizations/Budget-Department/Committee-advances-digital-asset-authority-bill-with-custody-and-liaison-amendments)
- [2026-09-20] As of the committee's September meeting agenda, the bill was listed as
"27LSO-0010 v0.9 Wyoming Digital Asset Authority"
, confirming it was still an interim-committee draft, not yet introduced in the legislature. (https://wyoleg.gov/Calendar/20260920/Meeting?type=committee&id=15164)
- [2026 (summary page)] The committee's official charge for 2026 states it
will evaluate legislation to restructure the Wyoming Stable Token Commission into a Wyoming Digital Asset Authority, broadening its role to serve as the centralized administrator for all Wyoming government-issued digital assets
. (https://www.wyoleg.gov/Committees/2026/S19)
- [2025-09-22] Earlier in the interim process, a commissioner recommended
expanding the Stable Token Commission's scope or creating a broader digital-asset authority to regulate additional token classes and to permit yield-bearing or asset-backed tokens in the future
, showing the concept originated well before the 2026 interim drafting. (https://citizenportal.ai/articles/5976465/Wyoming/Legislative/Committees/Select-Committees-and-Task-Force/Select-Committee-on-Blockchain/Financial-Technology-and-Digital-Innovation-Technology/Commissioners-and-select-committee-weigh-expanding-authority-for-asset-backed-tokens-and-broader-tokenization)
- [2026-03-11] Wyoming's 2026 Budget Session adjourned, and it was confirmed that
Wyoming's Sixty-Ninth Legislature will convene for the 2027 General Session on Jan. 12
. (https://county10.com/wyoming-legislatures-2026-budget-session-adjourns/)
- [2026-08-10 (data as of)] A 50-state legislative calendar shows Wyoming's 2027 session:
Session Dates: 1/12/27. Intro Deadlines: 3/8/27
, meaning the session (where the Digital Asset Authority bill would be introduced as a committee-sponsored bill) is scheduled to run from mid-January to roughly early March 2027, well before the April 1, 2027 market deadline. (https://www.multistate.us/resources/2027-legislative-session-dates)
- [2026 General Session note] Because 2027 is a General Session (not a Budget Session), ordinary bills — including committee bills like 27 LSO 10 — do not require the two-thirds supermajority for introduction that applies only in even-numbered budget-session years, improving the bill's procedural path to a floor vote. (https://www.cwpma.org/cpages/wyoming-legislators)
- [2026-09-02] Separately, the existing Wyoming Stable Token Commission continued routine stable-token operations (Chainlink Proof of Reserve integration for FRNT), unrelated to the Authority bill itself but confirming the Commission remains active and is the entity slated for conversion.
The Wyoming Stable Token Commission, issuer of the first U.S.-state-issued stable token, today announced that the State of Wyoming has deepened its adoption of Chainlink to bring a new standard for reserve transparency
. (http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/wyoming-stable-token-commission-adopts-chainlink-proof-of-reserve-to-set-new-us-standard-for-digital-asset-transparency-302867690.html)
- [As of 2026-10-09] No evidence found that 27 LSO 10 has yet been formally introduced as a numbered bill (HB/SF) in the Wyoming Legislature; it remains an interim committee draft (v0.9) awaiting the 2027 General Session convening January 12, 2027.
- [Kalshi contract page, undated snapshot] The Kalshi/Coinbase market description confirms the resolution hinges on enactment of
legislation granting a Wyoming state entity (whether newly created or the Wyoming stable token commission with expanded powers) statutory authority to administer government-issued digital assets beyond the Wyoming stable token
before April 1, 2027. (https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXLOCALLAW-WYDAA-27APR01)
BOTTOM LINE: A committee-sponsored bill (27 LSO 10, "Wyoming Digital Asset Authority") that directly matches the resolution criteria passed its interim Select Committee on 2026-09-29 with amendments and is positioned for introduction when the 2027 General Session convenes on 2027-01-12 and runs to roughly 2027-03-08 — comfortably before the April 1, 2027 deadline — giving it a clear, time-feasible legislative path, though full passage and gubernatorial action are not yet complete.
NOT FOUND: Confirmation that 27 LSO 10 has been assigned an official bill number (HB/SF) for the 2027 session; any statement from Governor Mark Gordon specifically endorsing or opposing the Digital Asset Authority bill; any text of the final v0.9 draft; any indication of opposition or expected floor vote counts in the House/Senate.
report: base rate
- [2026-07-14/15] Legislative staff presented bill draft 27 LSO 10, creating a Wyoming Digital Asset Authority with an eight-member board and broad powers over digital asset issuance/custody, to the Select Committee on Capital Financing and Investments;
LSO staff presented bill draft 27 LSO 10 to create a Wyoming Digital Asset Authority with an eight‑member board and broad powers (issuance/custody of government digital assets), which would coordinate state digital asset work, oversee issuance and custody of government digital assets, and administer digital identity and payment infrastructure.
(citizenportal.ai)
- [2026-09-29] The relevant select committee formally voted to advance the bill:
the select committee voted to advance legislation to reconstitute the Wyoming Stable Token Commission as the Wyoming Digital Asset Authority (27 LSO 10 v0.9) and adopted two committee amendments before passage, approved as amended, adding custody flexibility and two non‑voting legislative liaisons; roll call recorded 5 ayes, 2 excused and 1 absent.
This is only a committee-level vote, not full legislative passage.
- [2025-09-22] Base-rate precedent for topic momentum: a year earlier,
members of the Select Committee on Blockchain and commissioners said Wyoming should begin laying statutory and operational groundwork to permit state-issued asset-backed tokens and other tokenization efforts beyond the Frontier Stable Token, recommending expanding the Commission's scope or creating a digital-asset authority.
This shows the idea has been under serious legislative discussion for over a year before any bill draft existed.
- [Reference class] Wyoming's blockchain/digital-asset select committee has a strong historical track record of converting its bill drafts into enacted law: in the 2023 session alone,
Rothfuss and his fellow legislators sponsored five pieces of legislation this session — four of which have become law, with Gov. Gordon allowing SF127 (creating the Stable Token Commission) to pass into law without his signature and signing three others.
- [2019–2024] Wyoming has enacted blockchain/digital-asset legislation in nearly every session since 2019:
in 2019, Wyoming became the first state to enact blockchain-enabling legislation and to establish the treatment of digital assets such as cryptocurrencies and NFTs as intangible property under Article 9 of the Uniform Commercial Code
, followed by amendments in 2021, the 2023 Stable Token Act, 2024 DUNA Act, and further 2024/2026 Stable Token amendments — an unbroken multi-year pattern of the legislature acting on this committee's proposals.
- [2027 session calendar]
Wyoming's Sixty-Ninth Legislature will convene for the 2027 General Session on Jan. 12
, and per legislative calendars
session dates run 1/12/27 with intro deadlines of 2/1/27 (House) and 1/27/27 (Senate) and a crossover deadline of 2/10/27
. This 2027 general (non-budget) session allows ordinary bills without the two-thirds introduction threshold required in budget years, improving passage odds versus a budget session.
- [Session structure]
The General Session is limited to 40 legislative days
, meaning the 2027 session (Jan 12 start) should conclude well before the April 1, 2027 market close, giving ample time for enactment if the bill clears committee stage and floor votes as scheduled.
- [Political environment]
Republicans are expected to hold the governorship and maintain near-unanimous control of both chambers of the legislature
, and Governor Gordon has been a consistent, public champion of the state's digital-asset initiatives (he chairs the Stable Token Commission and touted FRNT's launch), reducing likelihood of gubernatorial veto if the bill reaches his desk.
- [No comparable prior "No" case found] There is no identified instance in this reference class (Wyoming blockchain/digital-asset committee bills reaching the full committee-approval stage pre-session) failing to become law in the subsequent session; the committee's bills historically pass at a high rate once formally advanced with bipartisan committee votes (5-0 effective margin here, with absences/excused not opposed).
BOTTOM LINE: The reference class — Wyoming's Select Committee on Blockchain/Capital Financing digital-asset bills from 2019–2026 — shows an unusually high historical enactment rate (most committee-advanced digital-asset bills have become law, typically within one legislative session of committee passage), and this specific bill (27 LSO 10) has already passed committee with a lopsided vote ahead of the Jan 12, 2027 session, which comfortably fits within the Apr 1, 2027 deadline; the outside view favors Yes.
NOT FOUND: The exact text/certainty of interim Management Council sponsorship (whether 27 LSO 10 will be formally sponsored as a committee bill for 2027, which affects introduction deadlines) and any polling/explicit odds from prediction markets or legal experts on this specific bill's passage probability.
report: yes case
YES means: Wyoming enacts legislation this session (by April 1, 2027) that either creates a new Wyoming Digital Asset Authority or expands the Wyoming Stable Token Commission's statutory powers so that a Wyoming state entity has authority to administer government-issued digital assets beyond the Wyoming stable token — with full passage, executive action/inaction, and any waiting periods completed.
- [2026-09-29] The Select Committee's agenda confirms the Governor's office is already directly engaged in the underlying policy: a "Cash Equivalent Memorandum" was presented by **David Pope, Governor's Liaison**, alongside the 27LSO-0010 v0.9 bill draft discussion, indicating executive-branch coordination on the digital-asset framework rather than indifference or opposition. (https://wyoleg.gov/Calendar/20260920/Meeting?type=committee&id=15164)
- [2026-07-14] The underlying bill draft explicitly structures the new Authority's board with four members appointed by elected officials subject to Senate confirmation plus four subject-matter-expert appointees, giving the Governor/executive branch direct institutional buy-in and reducing the odds of gubernatorial veto once the bill reaches his desk. (https://citizenportal.ai/articles/8502487/Wyoming/Legislative/Committees/Select-Committees-and-Task-Force/Select-Committee-on-Capital-Financing-and-Investments/Committee-reviews-draft-to-create-Wyoming-Digital-Asset-Authority-members-debate-board-makeup-and-oversight)
- [Senate Rules, current] Wyoming's Senate procedural rules give joint/select interim committees a structural fast-track: "bills sponsored by the joint interim committees may be considered on the opening day of the session," bypassing the ordinary bill-limit and late-filing constraints that slow individual-member bills. (https://www.wyoleg.gov/docs/SenateRules.pdf)
- [House Rules, current] The House rules mirror this: sponsorship limits "shall not apply to joint interim committees," and committee bills can be introduced and read on day one of a session, which for 2027 is January 12 — leaving the full ~40-legislative-day general session (intro deadlines around Feb 1 House/Jan 27 Senate per the committee's own calendar) to complete passage well ahead of the April 1 deadline. (https://wyoleg.gov/2024/Rules/HouseRules.pdf)
- [Statutory basis] Wyoming's legislative manual confirms that "legislative committees which may sponsor legislation include only committees as specified in W.S. 28-8-104(e)" — the Select Committee on Blockchain, Financial Technology and Digital Innovation Technology is one of these statutorily empowered sponsoring committees, so 27 LSO 10 does not need a separate Management Council vote to be introduced as a committee bill once the committee itself has voted to sponsor it (as it did Sept. 29). (https://wyoleg.gov/leginfo/policies/manlepro.pdf)
- [2023 precedent, fetched] The closest direct precedent — SF0076, the "Wyoming digital asset registration act," also sponsored by this same Select Committee — shows the committee's bills move fast once committee-approved: "Bill Number Assigned" 1/4/2023, passed both chambers, and "Governor Signed SEA No. 0095" by 3/9/2023, a roughly two-month path from bill-number assignment to law. (https://wyoleg.gov/Legislation/2023/SF0076)
- [2025, chair-level momentum] A year before the current draft, the same committee's co-chairman (Rothfuss) is on record moving and passing roll-call votes to formally sponsor multiple blockchain-related bill drafts for the following session, the identical procedural pattern now completed for 27 LSO 10 on Sept. 29, 2026 — showing the committee reliably converts "advance" votes into formal sponsorship before session convenes. (https://wyoleg.gov/InterimCommittee/2025/S19-20250922830MeetingMinutes.pdf)
- [Political/track record] Industry commentary on Wyoming's digital-asset legislative program notes Governor Gordon "has signed over 30 pieces of legislation focused on the treatment and utilization of cryptocurrency, blockchain, and digital assets," underscoring an unbroken gubernatorial pattern of signing this committee's bills rather than vetoing them. (https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/WYGOV/bulletins/3d6ce34)
- [2026-10 contemporaneous, sibling-topic] A parallel Oct. 2026 report on a different Wyoming interim-committee bill (online sweepstakes) shows that even same-committee drafts without a clean vote can stall at the "Management Council sponsorship" stage when a motion "failed for lack of a second" — illustrating the sponsorship step is a real, typically pro-forma but non-trivial gate that 27 LSO 10 must still clear, though it already has the stronger prerequisite (full committee passage with amendments) that the sweepstakes drafts lacked. (https://rg.org/news/gambling-industry/wyoming-lawmakers-weigh-ban-vs-rules-online-sweepstakes)
BOTTOM LINE: The single most likely path to Yes is already substantially de-risked: 27 LSO 10 cleared its interim committee with amendments on 2026-09-29, the committee itself holds direct statutory sponsorship authority (no separate Management Council vote required), Wyoming's own procedural rules let committee bills be introduced on day one of the Jan 12, 2027 session and move through a 40-day general session with no supermajority barrier, and the committee's own 2023 precedent (SF0076) shows a ~2-month path from sponsorship to gubernatorial signature — all comfortably inside the April 1, 2027 deadline, with a Governor who has signed essentially every prior bill from this committee.
NOT FOUND: A confirmed, dated statement that the Select Committee formally voted (separately from the Sept. 29 "advance" vote) to designate 27 LSO 10 as a committee-sponsored bill for 2027 introduction; an assigned 2027 bill number (HB/SF); any explicit Governor Gordon comment on the Digital Asset Authority bill specifically (as opposed to stable tokens generally); any recorded opposition or expected floor-vote whip count.
report: no case
YES means: Wyoming enacts legislation — either creating a new Wyoming Digital Asset Authority or expanding the Wyoming Stable Token Commission's statutory powers — to administer government-issued digital assets beyond the Wyoming stable token, with full legal effect (passed both chambers, signed/allowed to become law or veto override, and any waiting periods satisfied) before April 1, 2027.
- [2026-09-29] The committee vote to advance 27 LSO 10 was only 5 ayes with 2 members excused and 1 absent out of an 8-member committee, meaning fewer than two-thirds of the full membership affirmatively voted — a thin procedural base from which to claim momentum, as reported in the same article colleagues cited (https://citizenportal.ai/articles/10410981/Wyoming/Executive/Organizations/Budget-Department/Committee-advances-digital-asset-authority-bill-with-custody-and-liaison-amendments).
- [2026-07-15] LSO staff and commissioners themselves flagged substantive unresolved problems with the bill at the July hearing:
"staff notes and commissioners flagged potential risks from overlapping authority, blurred functional boundaries between the authority and the Stable Token Commission, fiduciary gaps in custody standards, and funding needs to execute the authority's broad mandate."
These are the kind of structural/fiscal issues that commonly stall committee bills on the floor even after committee passage.
- [2026-07-15] The committee was still debating basic structural alternatives as late as July —
"Committee members discussed three structural options: keep both entities with clear boundaries, subsume the commission into the authority, or transition the commission into the single authority with divisions for stable tokens, custody, real‑world assets and digital identity"
— indicating the design was far from settled just two months before the September committee vote, raising the risk of further contentious amendment on the floor.
- [undated, ~2025] Wyoming's own legislative leadership has publicly acknowledged a declining success rate for committee-sponsored bills: a Buffalo Bulletin report quoting Management Council members noted
"lawmakers on the council cited the lack of interim bills considered during the 2025 general session. Fewer than half of interim bills became law this year."
- [undated, ~2025] A separate Wyoming Tribune Eagle report on the same Management Council trend stated
"the trend of committee-sponsored bills passing the Legislature has declined over the last two sessions"
and that
"A post-session Legislative Service Office (LSO) report found that less than half of committee-sponsored bills passed the Legislature this year. During the 2024 budget session, where non-budget bills needed a two-thirds introductory vote to be considered, a record-low 69% of committee bills had successfully been introduced"
— showing introduction/passage attrition is a real, recent, recurring pattern for this exact bill-type, not merely historical.
- [2024, precedent] The Wyoming Freedom Caucus has an established record of killing committee-vetted bills procedurally:
"During the 2024 budget session, the caucus used the two-thirds vote required to introduce non-budget legislation to prevent numerous committee-sponsored bills from receiving debate. Committee bills ordinarily result from months of public meetings, testimony and interim study. The defeated measures included legislation..."
Although 2027 is a General Session (removing the 2/3 introduction hurdle per colleagues' report), the Freedom Caucus and skeptical factions remain active in blocking or amending crypto/blockchain-adjacent bills via floor maneuvers, committee re-referral, or amendment fights.
- [2026-09-29, undated note] No fiscal note or appropriation figure for 27 LSO 10 has surfaced in any public reporting found; given the bill creates an eight-member board, custodial infrastructure and potentially new staff (per the July 15 "funding needs" concern), an unresolved or large fiscal note could trigger Appropriations Committee review and additional delay once introduced in January 2027, compressing the already-tight 40-legislative-day general session window before the April 1 deadline.
- [2026-09-29, undated] No evidence yet that 27 LSO 10 has been formally assigned as a Management Council/committee-sponsored bill number (HB/SF) for introduction, and colleagues' "NOT FOUND" note confirms no governor statement of support exists; Governor Gordon's silence specifically on this bill (versus his vocal support for the Stable Token Commission/FRNT) leaves open the possibility of a veto or delay if the final floor text differs materially from the committee-amended v0.9 draft.
- [2026-09-29, mechanism] Because the committee vote only approved a draft (v0.9) rather than final statutory text, the bill must still clear First/Second/Third readings in both the House and Senate, survive any conference committee reconciliation of differences, and receive gubernatorial action — multiple sequential veto points between now and April 1, 2027, any one of which (floor amendment fights over the custody/fiduciary issues staff flagged, Freedom Caucus procedural objections, or a late fiscal note fight) could push final enactment past the deadline or kill the bill outright, consistent with the "less than half of interim bills become law" base rate cited above.
BOTTOM LINE: Despite committee passage, this specific reference class (Wyoming interim-committee bills) has recently failed to become law more often than not, the committee's own staff and commissioners identified unresolved structural/fiduciary/funding problems as recently as July 2026, the September vote was far from unanimous, and no fiscal note, formal bill number, or gubernatorial endorsement yet exists — leaving real room for floor amendment fights, Freedom Caucus procedural blocking, or appropriations delay to push the outcome to NO before April 1, 2027.
NOT FOUND: A fiscal note or cost estimate for 27 LSO 10; confirmation of Management Council sponsorship/bill-number assignment for the 2027 session; any direct opposition letters specifically targeting the Digital Asset Authority bill (only an analogous opposition letter on a different bill, the Personal Data Ownership Act, from the same committee's 2027 docket, was found); any statement from Governor Gordon on this specific bill.
3. Forecasters 5 draws · Opus 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + GPT-5.6 Sol · plain mean
claude-opus-5-5 · high effort
42% conf
| Yes | 40% |
| No | 60% |
(0) Not resolved: no 2027 bill yet on wyoleg.gov; draft 27 LSO 10 (Digital Asset Authority, a direct match to the criteria) passed its interim select committee 5-0 on 2026-09-29 but still needs two chambers plus governor. (a) ~5.7 months left; the 2027 General Session runs Jan 12 to ~early March, so timing is feasible. (b) Status quo = No until enactment. (c) No: Freedom Caucus-led House objects to digital-ID/payment-infrastructure scope or CBDC optics; fiscal/custody design fights stall it; recent data show fewer than half of interim committee bills became law in 2025; a new governor replacing Gordon may be less supportive. (d) Yes: committee bill is introduced day one, follows Wyoming's strong blockchain-bill enactment record (e.g., SF0076 in ~2 months), and is signed in March. Anchoring on Kalshi ~33-37%, committee passage is a positive but likely priced; I land slightly above the market at 40%.
claude-opus-5-5 · high effort
42% conf
| Yes | 36% |
| No | 64% |
(0) Not resolved. The resolution source page for the 2027 session shows no bill activity. 27 LSO 10, the Wyoming Digital Asset Authority draft, is still an interim committee draft (v0.9) with no HB/SF number.
(a) About 5.7 months remain until the April 1, 2027 deadline. The 2027 General Session runs from January 12 to roughly early March, so there is exactly one realistic legislative window.
(b) Status quo: if nothing happens, the bill never passes and the market resolves No. Yes requires introduction, passage by both chambers and executive action within that single session.
(c) No scenario: the bill dies on the floor or in committee. Recent Wyoming data shows fewer than half of interim committee bills became law in 2025. The House has a strong Freedom Caucus presence, which may treat a state 'Digital Asset Authority' that also handles digital identity and payment infrastructure as CBDC-like. Staff also flagged unresolved issues: overlapping authority, gaps in custody fiduciary standards, and funding needs. A new governor takes office in January 2027 because Gordon is term-limited, and he has not stated a position.
(d) Yes scenario: the bill is introduced as a committee bill on day one and moves through a non-budget session with no two-thirds introduction hurdle. It then benefits from Wyoming's strong record of enacting this committee's crypto bills (for example, SF0076 in 2023 took about two months to signature) and is signed by March.
The Kalshi anchor is about 37%, and its 20–53% range shows real uncertainty. Committee passage on September 29 is already known and priced. The governor transition and Freedom Caucus skepticism are underweighted by the research's bullish base-rate framing, so I shade slightly below the market.
gpt-6-astra · high effort
54% conf
| Yes | 37% |
| No | 63% |
I retain Kalshi's reported 37% YES anchor: its eight-point weekly rise may already reflect the committee news, while the conflicting 32%/33% bid/ask makes the snapshot less precise. As of October 9, no source documents qualifying enactment; the official Wyoming 2027 legislation portal returned only navigation, making its silence an information gap rather than proof of inaction. Roughly 174 days remain before April 1, including the general session beginning January 12, and qualifying legislation must complete both chambers, executive action or its legal equivalent, and any required waiting periods. If nothing changes, NO wins because existing stable-token operations alone do not establish authority over additional government-issued digital assets. The YES scenario is timely enactment of 27LSO-0010's broader mandate, supported by the official committee charge and CitizenPortal's September 29 report of five affirmative votes with no recorded opposition—absences are not opposing votes. General-session procedures and the enacted 2023 digital-asset registration bill demonstrate a feasible path, but the advancement claim remains single-source, the favorable crypto reference class is selectively documented, and reports that fewer than half of recent interim bills became law temper optimism. A NO scenario is fiscal or custody disputes killing or narrowing the legislation, or an effective-date provision preventing the expanded authority from becoming binding before the deadline despite earlier passage. Missing final statutory text, independent confirmation of advancement, fiscal details, and post-election executive support leave substantial scope and timing uncertainty, without a clear informational advantage sufficient to depart from the market.
gpt-6-astra · high effort
48% conf
| Yes | 37% |
| No | 63% |
As of October 9, no source documents qualifying enactment: the official 2027 legislative portal returned only a generic header, which cannot establish either enactment or its absence. About 174 days remain before April 1, 2027, with the general session scheduled to begin January 12, providing a feasible window for passage, executive action and any required waiting periods. The status quo resolves No because an interim draft and ongoing stable-token operations do not themselves establish broader statutory authority. The Yes scenario is enactment of the expanded government-digital-asset mandate described in the official committee charge, supported by CitizenPortal's September 29 report of five affirmative advancement votes with no recorded opposition and by earlier digital-asset enactments. The No scenario is defeat over funding or custody concerns, amendments limiting authority to the existing stable token, or failure to complete enactment before the deadline; reports that fewer than half of 2025 interim bills became law temper the selectively favorable historical examples. I discount the advancement report because it comes from one outlet, and the missing final statutory text leaves qualifying scope and timing requirements unverified, preventing operational progress from being mistaken for resolution evidence. I therefore retain Kalshi's reported 37% Yes anchor—while noting its inconsistent 32%/33% bid/ask—because the research establishes a credible path but no demonstrably unpriced advantage warranting a departure from consensus.
gpt-5.6-sol · high effort
58% conf
| Yes | 40% |
| No | 60% |
(0) The condition is not already met: the official 2027 legislation portal retrieved no relevant enactment, while the September 29 report shows only that draft 27 LSO 10 v0.9 advanced from the interim select committee, so it must still pass both chambers, complete executive action, and become legally effective before April 1, 2027. (a) About 174 days remain, although the legislature does not convene until January 12, leaving a roughly 40-legislative-day session to finish the process. (b) If nothing changes, the unintroduced committee draft remains nonbinding and the market resolves No. Kalshi's 37% Yes price is the anchor; I move modestly above it because the draft received a 5-0 vote among members present, can be sponsored directly by the select committee, and this policy area has a stronger enactment history than Wyoming interim bills generally. (c) No results if the bill is never formally introduced, stalls over authority, custody, funding, or Freedom Caucus objections, or passes without completing the contract's required waiting period before the deadline. (d) Yes results if the committee introduces the bill promptly on January 12, both chambers approve language extending the commission's authority beyond the stable token, and the governor signs or allows it to become binding before April 1. The missing final text, fiscal note, explicit gubernatorial endorsement, and evidence of an immediate-effective mechanism keep the favorable committee and sector-specific precedents from supporting a majority Yes forecast.
4. Final plain mean of 5 draws
38%
(49% confidence)
Yes: 38%
No: 62%
Mean of 5 draws (0.40, 0.36, 0.37, 0.37, 0.40). (0) Not resolved: no 2027 bill yet on wyoleg.gov; draft 27 LSO 10 (Digital Asset Authority, a direct match to the criteria) passed its interim select committee 5-0 on 2026-09-29 but still needs two chambers plus governor. (a) ~5.7 months left; the 2027 General Session runs Jan 12 to ~early March, so timing is feasible. (b) Status quo = No until enactment. (c) No: Freedom Caucus-led House objects to digital-ID/payment-infrastructure scope or CBDC optics; fiscal/custody design fights stall it; recent data show fewer than half of interim committee bills became law in 2025; a new governor replacing Gordon may be less supportive. (d) Yes: committee bill is introduced day one, follows Wyoming's strong blockchain-bill enactment record (e.g., SF0076 in ~2 months), and is signed in March. Anchoring on Kalshi ~33-37%, committee passage is a positive but likely priced; I land slightly above the market at 40%.
Pipeline Timing
Total pipeline time: 120.7s
Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.