Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?

- [2026-08-19] Trump told reporters he plans to meet Kim Jong Un "later this year," saying "Yeah, I will," Trump said when asked whether he planned in-person talks with Kim, with whom Trump claimed to have a great relationship , but no date/venue was set. https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/19/politics/trump-kim-jong-un-meeting - [2026-08-19] North Korea distanced itself from the overture: Kim Yo Jong, who is Kim's sister, denied that there are any communications between Trump and Kim . https://abcnews4.com/news/nation-world/trump-says-he-plans-to-meet-with-kim-jong-un-at-some-point-in-2026-later-this-year-north-korea-north-korean-leader-57-very-powerful-nuclear-weapons-war-conflict-iran-president-donald-trump - [2026-08-19] Trump cut short US-South Korea military drills as a goodwill gesture toward Pyongyang ahead of a possible summit, part of the past two days working to curry favor with Pyongyang, including by cutting short planned US-South Korea military exercises . https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/19/politics/trump-kim-jong-un-meeting - [2026-08-21] Pyongyang's initial response was cool: Kim Yo Jong dismissed the scale-back of the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise, saying its continuation remained aggressive... She also denied that Trump and Kim had had any contact, although she described the personal relationship between the leaders as "excellent." https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/analysis-trump-wants-meeting-kim-034204680.html - [2026-08-18] The Wall Street Journal reported, per AEI/ISW, that Trump discussed arranging an in-person meeting with Kim Jong Un during his upcoming trip to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November in the People's Republic of China (PRC) . https://aei.org/commentary/korean-peninsula-update-october-7-2026 - [2026-09-24] Trump reconfirmed he will attend the APEC summit: Trump confirmed in a subsequent post to social media that he planned to attend the APEC summit, which will be hosted in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19 . APEC China 2026 is officially dated November 18 – 19, 2026 . https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/24/politics/live-news/trump-meeting-china-xi-us-visit ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APEC_China_2026 - [2026-09-29] Trump publicly softened the US stance on denuclearization, per AEI/ISW: Trump said on September 29 that Workers' Party of Korea General Secretary Kim Jong Un is his friend, and that North Korea now has a "large nuclear capacity" due to previous administrations , and the US has since avoided the word "denuclearization" in public statements. https://aei.org/commentary/korean-peninsula-update-october-7-2026 - [2026-10-01] South Korea's NIS briefed lawmakers that a US-North Korea summit being held this year appears to have about a 50 percent chance, with Pyongyang exercising restraint to keep the possibility alive... "about a '50 percent chance of taking place around the time of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conferences'" . https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10889058 - [2026-10-01] The NIS also noted Pyongyang "is keen on not losing this opportunity," ... North Korean diplomats dealing with the US have been "very busy" , and separately that North Korea is seeking US recognition as a nuclear state before engaging. https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10889058 - [2026-10-07] As of the latest AEI/ISW tracker (data cutoff Oct 6), North Korea has not yet made public statements suggesting any plans to resume communications with Washington ; Kim Yo Jong's only public comment (Aug 19) denied any contact and called the US drill scale-back irrelevant. https://aei.org/commentary/korean-peninsula-update-october-7-2026 - [2026-10-07] North Korea continues provocative weapons testing (ballistic/hypersonic missile tests Oct 3, Sept 20) and a DMZ landmine incident (Sept 21) even as Seoul's Lee administration tries to preserve space for US-NK dialogue, per the same report — showing no sign yet that a summit is locked in. https://aei.org/commentary/korean-peninsula-update-october-7-2026 - [2026-10-07] A separate outlet reported Trump reiterated he wants to meet Kim "before the end of 2026," while noting Pyongyang's response suggests that even with good personal relations between the politicians, it will be difficult to arrange new talks , with the APEC summit in Shenzhen flagged as the likeliest venue/opportunity. https://mezha.net/eng/news/841d2aba_trump_seeks_kim/ BOTTOM LINE: As of October 9, 2026, no Trump–Kim meeting has occurred or been formally scheduled; Trump has repeatedly stated intent to meet Kim before year-end and will attend the Nov 18–19 APEC summit in Shenzhen (a geographically plausible venue), and South Korea's intelligence service puts roughly 50% odds on talks occurring around that summit, but North Korea has publicly denied direct contact and set preconditions (US recognition of its nuclear status) that remain unmet, so the outcome is genuinely contested and unresolved with about 2.5 months of trading time left after APEC. NOT FOUND: No confirmed date, venue, or official announcement of a scheduled Trump-Kim meeting; no evidence of any in-person encounter having taken place in 2026; no North Korean confirmation of a planned summit as of the October 7, 2026 data cutoff.

- [2018-06-12] First-ever sitting-president meeting: Trump and Kim Jong Un were meeting in Singapore; Trump wanted to shake hands with Kim's aide, who instead saluted before shaking hands — this established the precedent that Trump-Kim summits are a real, repeatable category of event (3 meetings in 2018-19: Singapore, Hanoi, DMZ). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Kwang-chol - [2019-06-30] Base-rate anchor: the pair has met three times before, the two leaders have met three times, but their diplomacy has not produced an agreement curbing Pyongyang's nuclear program , showing meetings can occur even absent substantive deals — i.e., "meeting" and "agreement" are decoupled outcomes. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/08/19/trump-says-he-expects-meet-with-north-koreas-kim-jong-un-later-this-year/ - [2025-10-22] A meeting attempt during Trump's 2025 Asia trip failed: attempts last year to broker a summit with Kim during Trump's visit to Asia fell through, in part due to the logistical issues of arranging a meeting on short notice , showing that stated intent does not reliably convert to an actual meeting within a short window. https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/19/politics/trump-kim-jong-un-meeting - [2025-12-16] Expert forecast (KNDA, South Korean Foreign Ministry-linked think tank) raised odds for 2026: "The likelihood of a North Korea-U.S. summit has increased somewhat due to common ground in the two leaders' desire to hold a summit, pursue peaceful coexistence and lower the priority of the denuclearization issue" . https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2025/12/16/Trump-Kim-summit-KNDA-report-Korea-National-Diplomatic-Academy/5051765873479/ - [2025-12-16] Carnegie Endowment assessment was more cautious: Trump and his advisers have been unable to generate a pathway to engagement with North Korea in their first eleven months in office, and Kim's position on negotiations with the United States has hardened considerably since the failures of Trump's first term . https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2025/12/trump-kim-north-korea-meeting-formal-outreach-sotu - [2026-08-19] Trump publicly reaffirmed intent for a 4th meeting in 2026: Trump said he intends to meet later this year with Kim Jong Un, claiming he gets along well with the North Korean leader... "Yeah, I will," Trump said when asked whether he planned in-person talks with Kim , but it's not clear how concrete Trump's plans are for a fourth summit with Kim . https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/19/politics/trump-kim-jong-un-meeting - [2026-08-19] North Korean side publicly denied any coordination, a recurring pattern from past cycles: "There has been no communication between the leaders of North Korea and the U.S. that we are aware of," Kim Yo Jong said, adding that the relationship between the U.S. and North Korean leaders "is still excellent" . https://thehill.com/policy/international/6040217-kim-yo-jong-denies-trump-talks/ - [2026-09-30] South Korea's intelligence service gave a quantified estimate much like a base-rate forecast: the NIS assessed on September 30 that there is an approximately "50 percent chance" that talks between the United States and North Korea will take place around the APEC summit in November in the PRC . https://www.aei.org/commentary/korean-peninsula-update-october-7-2026/ - [2026-09-23] South Korean President Lee has been actively pushing for the summit, calling it "a hard won opportunity for change," and said he hopes that the "long suspended dialogue" between Pyongyang and Washington would resume , indicating sustained diplomatic momentum from an interested third party. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/lee-jae-myung-trump-kim-summit-north-korea.html - [2026-09-30] Pyongyang's public posture toward the US has not softened on substance; Kim Yo Jong said North Korea's nuclear status was "absolute," and that calling denuclearization achievable would make critics "idiots knowing nothing of the world" — a persistent precondition problem similar to 2018-19 negotiations. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/lee-jae-myung-trump-kim-summit-north-korea.html - [2026-10-07] Latest tracker (AEI/ISW) notes conditions may be more favorable now than in 2018-19 because North Korea may increase its openness to dialogue with the United States as the United States has refrained from explicitly mentioning North Korean denuclearization in recent public statements , but as of the data cutoff, North Korea has not yet made public statements suggesting any plans to resume communications with Washington . https://www.aei.org/commentary/korean-peninsula-update-october-7-2026/ - [2026-09-16] Analysts flag a plausible venue/occasion in 2026 and speculate on scope, e.g. Foreign Policy noting Trump said in August that he expected to meet Kim later this year, while South Korean intelligence assessed that a U.S.-North Korea summit could become possible at any time . https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/16/north-korea-united-states-trump-kim-meeting-heir-succession/ BOTTOM LINE: The reference class (3 Trump-Kim meetings in 2018-19, each announced weeks/months in advance after visible diplomatic groundwork, plus one failed 2025 attempt despite stated intent) shows that leader-level statements of desire to meet do not reliably convert into actual meetings absent concrete logistical/diplomatic preparation and some reciprocal signal from Pyongyang — and as of the most recent tracker (Oct 7, 2026) no such reciprocal signal has yet appeared, even though South Korea's own intelligence service puts the odds of a near-term (APEC-adjacent) meeting at roughly 50%. NOT FOUND: Any formal, confirmed scheduling of a Trump-Kim 2026 meeting (date/venue agreed by both governments); any direct public statement from Kim Jong Un himself (as opposed to Kim Yo Jong or state media) confirming interest in meeting Trump in 2026; a specific market-maker or forecaster's numeric probability track record for this exact question beyond the NIS's "~50%" estimate.

YES means: Trump and Kim Jong Un are both physically present and interact in person at least once between Jan 1–Dec 31, 2026 (e.g., a bilateral summit, a sideline encounter at a multilateral event such as APEC, or an impromptu meeting like the 2019 DMZ walk). - [2026-08-19] Trump is seeking to arrange a meeting with Kim at the APEC summit in Shenzhen this November, and a White House official stated the two will meet "at an appropriate time." This gives a concrete, already-scheduled occasion (Trump confirmed he will attend) that could double as the meeting venue, lowering the logistical bar relative to a stand-alone bespoke summit. - [2026-09-17] Former U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun, speaking at a Korea Risk Group conference, said a Trump visit to Pyongyang is a plausible scenario , and per NK News reporting he suggested Trump might propose meeting Kim in Pyongyang after APEC — showing a former senior North Korea negotiator sees a realistic bilateral pathway beyond just a sideline APEC encounter, extending the "most likely path" window past Nov 19 into December. - [2026-09-23 to 09-28] North Korea sent Vice Foreign Minister Kim Son-gyong to the UN General Assembly, arriving five days early with a comfortable schedule five days ahead of her UN address, during which she was expected to hold talks with UN Secretary-General Guterres, friendly-nation officials, and Singaporean officials — Singapore being the same channel (FM Balakrishnan) that visited Pyongyang in May, indicating an active, functioning back-channel infrastructure through which an invitation or meeting logistics could be relayed without public confirmation. - [2026-09-28] Despite expectations of a dialogue signal, her UN speech was relatively mild, containing no direct threats, though it condemned what she framed as the collusion of Tokyo, Seoul and Washington against Pyongyang — notably it did not reject engagement outright, leaving the door open rather than slamming it shut, consistent with a calibrated "keep options alive" posture rather than a rupture. - [2026-10-07] AEI/ISW's NIS-sourced reporting shows concrete operational tells beyond mere rhetoric: North Korean officials responsible for US affairs have increased their activities and overseas diplomatic missions had been "instructed" to refrain from making public statements, with Chosun Ilbo noting North Korea's diplomatic channels were highly active ahead of the US-North Korea summit during the first Trump administration — i.e., Seoul's intelligence agency is drawing a direct comparison to the pre-2018 Singapore summit build-up pattern. - [2026-10-07] The same tracker found Kim Jong Un's public activities increased by 30 percent compared to the previous year, while his attendance at weapons tests and military exercises has declined, likely as an effort to refrain from "provocative activities" — a behavioral shift toward lower-provocation posture that historically has preceded past engagement windows (2018 pre-Singapore lull). - [2026-06] China's Xi Jinping made a rare two-day state visit to Pyongyang in June 2026 in which, per CRS, Xi made no mention of denuclearization, a contrast with Xi-Kim summits in 2018 and 2019, underscoring the restoration of closer bilateral ties — Beijing hosting APEC gives China a direct stake and logistical capacity to broker or at least tacitly permit a Trump-Kim encounter on Chinese soil in November, a novel structural lever not present in 2018-19 cycles. - [2026-09-29/30 context] Trump's own rhetorical shift — dropping "denuclearization" language and calling Kim a friend — directly answers the single biggest precondition North Korea has voiced; Kim himself stated in September 2025 that "If the U.S. drops its hollow obsession with denuclearization and wants to pursue peaceful coexistence with North Korea based on the recognition of reality, there is no reason for us not to sit down with the U.S. Personally, I still have good memories of U.S. President Trump." Trump's late-September statements move the US rhetorically close to satisfying that exact condition. - [2026-10-01] South Korea's NIS's quantified near-term estimate — a roughly 50% chance of talks "around" the APEC conferences — is itself evidence of a credible, non-trivial institutional probability assessment from a government intelligence service with access to signals intelligence on North Korean diplomatic traffic, not merely punditry. - Mechanism for YES: the single most likely path is a Trump-Kim encounter timed to or shortly after the Nov 18–19 Shenzhen APEC summit — either a formal bilateral summit (possibly in Pyongyang, per Biegun) or an impromptu sideline handshake/meeting arranged via the active Singapore-mediated back-channel — contingent on (1) Washington continuing to avoid explicit "denuclearization" demands, (2) Pyongyang's quiet diplomatic activity (NIS-observed) converting into an actual invitation before year-end, and (3) no fresh provocation (e.g., major ICBM/nuclear test) derailing the opening in the Oct–Dec window. BOTTOM LINE: Multiple independent, fresh threads — Biegun's plausible-Pyongyang-visit framing, an active Singapore-mediated NK diplomatic channel visible at UNGA, NIS-documented upticks in North Korean US-affairs diplomatic activity and reduced Kim provocations, and a US rhetorical shift toward Kim's stated precondition — together make a converging, mechanistically plausible (not merely aspirational) case for a Trump-Kim meeting occurring around or after the Nov 18–19 APEC summit, with roughly 2.5 months of additional runway to December 31 if APEC itself does not produce it. NOT FOUND: No confirmed invitation from Kim Jong Un himself; no announced date/venue for a bilateral summit; no public North Korean statement since Aug 19 acknowledging direct contact with Washington; no evidence yet of actual US-NK working-level contact (as opposed to back-channel signaling via Singapore/UN).

YES means: Trump and Kim Jong Un physically meet in person at least once between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2026. - [2026-10-01] Even amid Trump's active outreach (invoking Dennis Rodman's North Korea ties on Oct 1), Trump is scheduled to attend the APEC forum in China next month, potentially creating an opportunity for another meeting with Kim, although no such plans have been announced , confirming zero logistical progress as of a week ago. https://benzinga.com/news/politics/26/10/62125911/trump-kim-jong-un-north-korea-dennis-rodman-talks - [2026-10-02] As of Oct 2, the Wall Street Journal's own reporting confirms Trump has privately discussed a face-to-face meeting with Kim at the APEC summit in Shenzhen, set for Nov. 18 and 19, but no meeting has been set — i.e., still purely aspirational with no diplomatic channel confirmed open. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-reunites-dennis-rodman-seeks-163712330.html - [2025-10-25] Direct precedent of failure at the prior APEC (Gyeongju, South Korea): experts assessed Trump administration officials were "privately discussing" the possibility of a Trump–Kim meeting during the US president's planned trip to Asia later that month, though no logistical arrangements or direct contacts with Pyongyang had been made, and previous US outreach earlier that year had been rejected by North Korea — that meeting never happened. https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10596471 - [2025-10-25] A Seoul-based expert explicitly flagged the symbolic-cost logic working against any surprise encounter at APEC: the possibility of a surprise meeting remains slim, particularly as North Korea would face political pressure to resume negotiations afterward... "Even a casual encounter would carry symbolic implications that Pyongyang may not want" . https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10596471 - [2026-08-27] Foreign Policy's reporting lays out the mechanism for why Pyongyang has no urgency: North Korea decided to simply go down a path of refusing to talk to those countries who are insistent on talking about denuclearization... North Korea just has repeatedly said it's not going to talk about this program. So, there's no urgency to talk to Donald Trump right now . https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/08/27/north-korea-kim-jong-un-trump-meeting-nuclear/ - [2026-08-21] A Korea Times analysis quotes two scholars independently rating the odds as poor: one notes North Korea is "unlikely to accept Trump's approach" given its Russia ties, while a Sejong Institute fellow adds that a summit near the midterms would take place about two weeks after the Nov. 3 midterm elections in the U.S. and could allow Trump to showcase diplomatic progress... "That would be difficult for the U.S. to accept, while entering such negotiations could further hurt Trump's popularity" . https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/foreignaffairs/northkorea/20260819/ball-in-n-koreas-court-after-trumps-summit-overture-experts-say - [2026-08-19] Kyungnam University's Lim Eul-chul separately assessed via Korea Herald that the structural landscape has shifted against a deal: Fox News's own characterization captured by analysts is that Trump now faces "a North Korea with a larger nuclear arsenal, a powerful new partner in Russia and far less incentive to strike a deal than it had during his first term" . https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10851613 - [2026-09-?] A Korea Institute for National Unification analyst quoted in a TBS News piece confirms Pyongyang's conditions remain a steep barrier: North Korea has made clear what conditions would make a meeting compelling, and these are very high bars for the U.S. to meet, said Jenny Town, senior fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center . https://www.tbsnews.net/worldbiz/usa/trump-wants-new-meeting-kim-jong-un-north-korea-says-not-so-fast-1521021 - [2026-07-28] Kim Yo Jong's own July 28 statement — predating the August overture — already foreclosed the core US ask: she said her brother's personal relationship with Trump was "not bad" but firmly rejected a return to denuclearization talks , showing the precondition gap predates and persists through the current cycle. https://www.wonderwall.com/politics/kim-jong-un-rejects-president-donald-trump-outreach/ - [2026-10-04] As recently as Oct 4, Trump was still only talking about Kim rhetorically on the campaign trail rather than announcing any summit progress, telling an Ohio crowd "I get along very well with Kim Jong Un," ... it was good to get along with someone who has "112 nuclear missiles" — vague, inflated claims with no new diplomatic substance. https://upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/10/04/donald-trump-kim-jong-un-nuclear-weapons-diplomacy/4151791161905 - [2025-12-?] The arms-control community's longer-run read likewise leaned NO heading into 2026: North Korea's Vice Foreign Minister warned the U.S. "should not expect or desire to see its own mode of dealing, which is full of pressure, appeasement, threat, and blackmail, working on [North Korea] someday," rhetoric consistent with the regime's continued refusal to engage on Washington's terms. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-12/news/north-korea-appears-reject-trumps-offer-talks - [2026-10-01] As of the most recent dated reporting, North Korea has still not answered Trump's outreach at all, per Benzinga's headline framing: Trump has repeatedly said he wants to meet Kim again after the two leaders held three high-profile meetings during Trump's first term, including an encounter at the Korean Demilitarized Zone , yet Pyongyang remains unresponsive to the renewed bid. https://benzinga.com/news/politics/26/10/62125911/trump-kim-jong-un-north-korea-dennis-rodman-talks BOTTOM LINE: The status-quo pattern — repeated by both the failed October 2025 APEC attempt and the still-unconfirmed November 2026 APEC prospect — is that Trump's stated intent to meet Kim has never yet converted into a scheduled, logistically prepared summit; North Korea has consistently denied direct contact, hardened its precondition (US recognition as a nuclear state) and shows no urgency to negotiate given its Russia-backed leverage, so absent a concrete diplomatic breakthrough in the roughly six weeks before and around APEC, inertia favors no meeting occurring in 2026. NOT FOUND: Any North Korean government statement confirming interest in a 2026 summit; any announced date, venue, or bilateral working-level contact for a Trump-Kim meeting; evidence that Dennis Rodman or any other back-channel has produced a concrete North Korean response as of Oct 9, 2026.