Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?

- [2026-10-08] Binance/TradingView SOL/USDT daily chart showed Solana trading at $112.28 on Oct. 8, down 3.46% intraday, after breaking below the $116 support level; Solana price has fallen below key support at $116, putting its daily Supertrend near $107 in focus as U.S. SOL ETFs record three consecutive sessions of outflows. https://crypto.news/solana-price-breaks-116-support-can-bulls-prevent-drop - [2026-10-08] Intraday range on Oct. 8: SOL reached an intraday high of $116.81 before falling to $111.21, leaving it below the $115–$116 area that had supported earlier trading. Neither $60 nor $140 strike is close to current trading. https://crypto.news/solana-price-breaks-116-support-can-bulls-prevent-drop - [2026-10-08] Context on distance from both key levels: At roughly $112, SOL stood about 10% below $125, although its daily chart still showed a substantial recovery from the June low near $60. This confirms SOL has not touched $140 recently and the market low was near, but not confirmed below, $60. https://crypto.news/solana-price-breaks-116-support-can-bulls-prevent-drop - [2026-10-07] U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded three straight sessions of net outflows (~$9.24M Oct 5, $3.69M Oct 6, $4.8M Oct 7, ~$17.7M total), reversing a prior period of steady weekly inflows. https://crypto.news/solana-price-breaks-116-support-can-bulls-prevent-drop - [2026-06-06] The year's low on Binance-tracked SOL/USD came on June 6, 2026, at the low of the year on June 6, 2026, which stood at 52.27 in euros and 60.12 in dollars , meaning SOL came very close to $60 but did not confirm trading at or below it. https://cryptoticker.io/en/solana-price-euro-dollar-gap-october-2026/ - [2026-06-04] Separately reported: Solana (SOL) dropped to its lowest price since December 2023 this week, sliding toward $68 as more than $88 million in leveraged positions were wiped out across the market... SOL closed the latest candle near $68.46, down almost 17% on the week, its lowest level since December 2023. (Slightly different low reading than the $60.12 figure above, reflecting source/exchange discrepancies.) https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/solana-sol-hits-lowest-level-122410860.html - [2026-08-31] The 2026 intraday high on at least one tracked venue was On Aug 31, 2026, the price of Solana reached an all-time high of $ 124.950, which is the highest price since Solana was listed on BitKan , well short of the $140 strike. https://bitkan.com/price/solana/ath-2026 - [2026-10-02] Describing the recovery trajectory: Solana saw a remarkable gain of 48% during the third quarter of 2026, rising from around $80 in early July to $118 by September 30... As of October 2, Solana is priced at about $122, still 58% below its all-time high of $293, reached on January 19, 2025. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/high-solana-2026-48-quarter-010315081.html - [2026-10-02] A scenario analysis noted upside is contingent on catalysts: Solana's market value would need to jump to about $172 billion [to retest highs]... the consistent influx of funds supports the possibility of Solana reaching $180, but it doesn't guarantee it. A week of net outflows could signal that the momentum behind the third-quarter rally is fading. Outflows materialized days later (Oct 5-7). https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/high-solana-2026-48-quarter-010315081.html - [2026-10-08] CoinLore's 2026 yearly stat table shows a full-year range (through early October) of Max $148.18 / Min $60.42, though the max likely reflects pre-market-open January levels rather than post-March-11 trading, since the BitKan tracker and other sources place the 2026 intraday ceiling closer to $125. https://www.coinlore.com/coin/solana/forecast/price-prediction - [2026-10-08] Near-term technical levels cited by analysts put resistance at $116–$125 and support at $106–$110, implying the immediate path is toward neither extreme strike but a continuation of consolidation in the $106–$125 band. https://crypto.news/solana-price-breaks-116-support-can-bulls-prevent-drop - [2026-10-08] Scheduled near-term catalyst: the Federal Reserve's October 27–28 meeting was flagged as a potential volatility trigger that could send Solana below its $124 year-start price , relevant to downside risk toward (but not confirmed reaching) $60 before year-end. https://247wallst.com/investing/cryptocurrency/2026/10/02/how-high-can-solana-go-in-2026-after-a-48-quarter/ BOTTOM LINE: As of Oct 8, 2026, SOL trades near $112, roughly 47% below the $60 strike's distance-inverse and about 20% below the $140 strike; since market open on Mar 11, 2026 the closest approach to either strike was a dip to roughly $60–68 in early June 2026 (no confirmed Binance close/print at or below $60) and a rally to roughly $122–125 in late Aug/early Oct (well short of $140), so neither trigger has fired and current momentum (breaking $116 support, three days of ETF outflows) favors renewed downside testing before any approach toward $140. NOT FOUND: An explicit, dated Binance SOL/USDT 1-minute candle print confirming SOL traded at or below $60.00 or at or above $140.00 at any point between 2026-03-11 and 2026-10-08; precise intraday low/high values differ across sources ($60.12 vs $67.31/$68.46 for the June low), and no single primary Binance chart snapshot was accessible to verify the exact wick extremes.

- [2026-02-06] Earlier in 2026, SOL underwent a sharp correction: Solana price extended its correction on Friday, reaching a low of $67.50, posting losses over 23% so far this week , with analysts targeting the $60 mark for a deeper breakdown — showing the $60 level has been a recurring bear-case target discussed for most of the year. (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/solana-price-forecast-sol-sell-off-intensifies-as-btc-drops-to-60-000-202602060547) - [2026-06-10] SOL came within a hair of the $60 strike: a market snapshot showed SOL $62.84 -3.54% and reporting noted the catalyst for the recent selloff was a sector-wide liquidation wave that dragged SOL down to the $60 zone before a partial recovery of over 5% . (https://cryptonews.com/news/solana-price-analysis-key-levels/) - [2026-06-26] A market recap stated Solana fell to about $61 on June 6 and later steadied near $66, leaving SOL down roughly a quarter in a week and about half from its January level , while on-chain activity (transactions, stablecoin cap, active addresses) hit records — i.e., the dip toward $60 was driven by macro/liquidation pressure, not fundamentals. (https://startupfortune.com/solanas-price-crash-to-multi-year-lows-tells-only-half-the-story-of-what-the-network-is-actually-doing/) - [2026-06-24] One commentary reported a chartist's claim that Solana just hit a 3-year low of $60, down -80% from its ATH, with 8 consecutive red monthly candles for the first time in history — the closest documented approach to the lower strike this cycle, though exact exchange/wick confirmation varies by source (figures range $60.00–$67.50 across outlets). (https://parameter.io/solana-sol-price-can-sol-recover-after-hitting-multi-year-lows-at-60/) - [2026-05-10] Before the June low, a base-rate style prediction-market signal existed: prediction market-implied odds of solana dropping under $60 in the year stand at 60%, an increase from 45% three weeks ago , showing that market participants already saw $60 as a live, contested threshold months before this contract's question period. (https://sherwood.news/crypto/solana-falls-to-a-more-than-3-month-low/) - [2026-08-31] After the June trough, SOL staged a strong recovery; one exchange's 2026 ATH tracker noted a local high of $124.950 on Aug 31, 2026... It has been 92 days since the last drop of +107.80% on , when the lowest price of Solana was $60.1300 — i.e., roughly a 2x round-trip from the June low to the August high, illustrating how wide SOL's realized swings have been within this market's window. (https://bitkan.com/price/solana/ath-2026) - [2026-09-18 to 2026-10-08] Since the June bottom, SOL has not revisited $60 nor broken above $140: monthly closes show a climb from the low $70s (June/July) to about $103 (August), $118 (September) and ~$117-121 (early October). (https://www.digrin.com/stocks/detail/SOL-USD/price) - [2026-09-23] A fundamentals piece framed the asymmetry of the current setup: Solana faces a hefty climb of about 152% to return to its all-time high of $295...Currently, Solana's price stands at $117 after a 21% weekly increase, but it remains down 44% over the past year , and flagged $124...and the $149 to $150 range, where it faced resistance in January 2026 as the next technical hurdles above current price — meaning $140 sits inside a well-trodden recent resistance band rather than requiring a historic breakout. (https://247wallst.com/investing/cryptocurrency/2026/09/23/what-would-it-take-for-solana-to-hit-295-again/) - [2026-10-08] A same-day technical note shows SOL pulling back intraday, with the piece noting that even after the drop at roughly $112, SOL stood about 10% below $125, although its daily chart still showed a substantial recovery from the June low near $60 — underscoring that $60 is now a distant tail scenario (~45-50% below spot) while $140 is a near-term resistance zone (~15-20% above spot). (https://crypto.news/solana-price-breaks-116-support-can-bulls-prevent-drop) - [2026-10-07] Analyst-consensus style price targets for year-end 2026 cluster mostly above current levels: one survey cites a mean near $445 among bullish long-term analysts, while more conservative technical models (LiteFinance, Changelly, Cryptopolitan) put 2026 ranges roughly between $83–$180, i.e. a $140 touch is well inside mainstream forecast bands whereas a sustained break to $60 is treated as a bearish tail case by most of the same forecasters. (https://investinghaven.com/solana-sol-price-predictions/, https://www.litefinance.org/blog/analysts-opinions/solana-price-prediction/) BOTTOM LINE: The base-rate/outside-view evidence shows SOL already brushed the $60 zone once (June 2026) during a liquidation-driven crash but reversed hard, roughly doubling to the $120s by September–October without ever reaching $140; current spot sits far closer (in percentage terms) to the $140 strike (~15-20% away) than to the $60 strike (~45-50% away), and most published 2026 price-target ranges (and the market's own prior near-touch-and-rebound pattern) skew toward $140 being reached before a fresh leg down to $60. NOT FOUND: An authoritative Binance-specific (as opposed to aggregate/CoinMarketCap/other-exchange) tick showing SOL's exact intraday low in June 2026 to confirm whether $60.00 was actually touched or only approached (sources range $60.00–$67.50 depending on venue); no dedicated historical base-rate study of "which-strike-hit-first" crypto prediction markets was found.

YES means: Solana's SOL/USDT price (Binance) trades at or below $60.00 before it ever trades at or above $140.00, between market open (2026-03-11) and the Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET deadline. - [2026-06-06] On the closest confirmed approach to the lower strike, Binance-referenced reporting showed Solana price has fallen below key support at $116, putting its daily Supertrend near $107 in focus (unrelated Oct level, cited for contrast), while on June 6 itself, crypto.news reported Solana price fell to a multi-year low near $60 as whale transfers, ETF outflows, and market-wide liquidations intensified selling pressure , with Forward Industries moving $31.9M in SOL to Coinbase Prime amid fears of treasury de-risking, and CoinGlass showing over $1.5B in crypto liquidations that day, demonstrating $60 is a level the market has already tested once under real stress, not a remote tail. https://crypto.news/will-solana-price-slide-to-50-next-as-whales-cut-exposure/ - [2026-06-06] The same report shows thin order-book support just below the June lows: CoinGlass liquidation heatmap data identifies the largest concentration of leveraged positions between $70 and $75, with a particularly dense cluster near $74. Those levels could attract price during any relief rally, although they now represent significant resistance after the recent breakdown , meaning any fresh leg down has little technical support between today's price and $60, implying a fast, cascading move rather than a slow grind if sellers regain control. https://crypto.news/will-solana-price-slide-to-50-next-as-whales-cut-exposure/ - [2026-06-06] A named analyst's technical call explicitly treated $58–$67 as a re-test zone before any durable reversal: "I am almost certain $SOL is heading back to retest $67-$58 once more before reversing into $120-$175 this year" — showing that even bullish-leaning technicians viewed a sub-$60 wick as the probable near-term path in 2026. https://crypto.news/will-solana-price-slide-to-50-next-as-whales-cut-exposure/ - [2026-01 (reported ~278 days before Oct 8)] A longer-horizon bear thesis from FXEmpire argued Solana surged roughly 1,500% from its 2022 lows near $8 to highs close to $295, a scale of gains that historically precedes deep mean-reversion phases for high-beta altcoins... Past cycles show SOL suffered 96–97% drawdowns in bear markets, and even without extreme events like the FTX collapse, an 85–90% correction would imply downside toward the $30–$40 zone , and separately flagged A confirmed breakdown would reinforce bearish continuation toward $50–$40 during a broader 2026 bottoming phase — establishing that professional forecasters see $60 and below as a plausible 2026 floor, not merely noise. - [2026-10-08] Current-day technical commentary (crypto.news) flags an active breakdown structure with support levels descending in steps: Daily Supertrend support stood at $107.22, while the 4-hour money-flow indicator turned negative. Analysts identified $110 and $106 as downside levels if buyers fail to recover lost support , giving a concrete near-term staircase (116→110→106) that, if broken in sequence amid continued ETF selling, opens a path back toward the $70s–$60s support band already tested in June. https://bitbase.com/news/solana-price-breaks-116-support-can-bulls-prevent-drop - [2026-10-08] Institutional demand — the main 2026 bull driver — is now reversing: Institutional fund flows have moved in the opposite direction. U.S.-listed spot SOL exchange-traded funds attracted more than $271 million in September... So far in October, the funds have recorded one inflow day, with $1.30 million entering on Oct. 2. Outflows have exceeded $22 million , indicating the capital that drove the Q3 rally toward $140 is now net negative, removing a key pillar needed to reach the upper strike first. - [2026-10-08] Weekly ETF-flow reporting shows the deceleration is accelerating, not stabilizing: Solana ETFs barely kept their inflow streak alive with just $2.4 million, representing a 99% drop from the prior week's $188 million surge... the drastic drop from $188 million to $2.4 million represents a significant decline of nearly 99% , a sharp inflection that historically has preceded SOL's largest drawdowns in 2026 (e.g., the ETF-outflow-linked slide into the June $60 low). - [2026-10 (whale data)] Elevated leverage remains a standing fragility: Solana leverage remains elevated as whale positioning and potential supply cuts raise volatility risks for SOL... it may create an environment where price movements become even more volatile due to the increased sensitivity of price movements to leverage , meaning a macro shock (e.g., the Oct 27–28 FOMC meeting or a BTC-led risk-off move) could trigger liquidation cascades of the same magnitude seen in June, which took SOL roughly 50% lower in days. - [2026-10 (SIMD governance)] A fundamental tailwind bulls cite — SOL's inflation-cut proposal SIMD-0411 — has stalled: Galaxy Research reported Solana's governance roadmap for 2026 faces renewed uncertainty after Galaxy Research signaled that no inflation reduction proposal will advance next year... the latest proposal, SIMD-0411, will likely be withdrawn without a vote , removing a scarcity narrative that supported the climb toward $140 and leaving SOL more exposed to pure liquidity/leverage-driven downside. - [2026-09-23] Even bullish technical framing concedes $140 sits inside a "well-trodden" resistance band requiring sustained momentum, while some independent forecast models already price a retreat: LongForecast's year-end range is $79.83–$124.19. A recovery to $105.37 is expected in November. In December, the price will likely remain relatively stable and end the year at around $104.63 , and a separate model (coinspeaker) projects December $82.72 | $86.80 | $90.89 for low/average/high — both scenarios keep SOL well under $140 and increasingly within striking distance of a fresh leg toward $60 if risk sentiment sours further. BOTTOM LINE: The YES path requires a repeat of the June 2026 playbook — ETF outflows, leveraged long liquidations, and a risk-off macro catalyst (plausibly the Oct 27–28 FOMC meeting) — pushing SOL through thin support in the $70s–$80s down to the $60 zone it already brushed once; current ETF outflow deceleration, stalled SIMD-0411 inflation reform, and elevated leverage all argue this path is live, even though spot (~$112) is currently closer in percentage terms to $140 than to $60. NOT FOUND: A precise Binance-specific 1-minute candle print confirming SOL traded at or below exactly $60.00 (versus $60.12–$67.50 reported across venues) in June 2026; no dedicated market-maker or options-desk note quantifying implied probability of a sub-$60 print before year-end was located.

YES means: Solana's SOL/USDT price (per Binance 1‑minute candles) first trades at or above $140 before it ever trades at or below $60, sometime between market open (2026-03-11) and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The strongest NO case argues either that $60 is reached first, or that neither strike is touched by the deadline (which the rules resolve 50‑50, i.e., not a clean YES). - [2026-10-08] A same-day market snapshot reports "$Ethereum is at $2,432 after a 5.3% daily drop and a brutal 9.3% weekly slide" while in the same broad risk-off move "Solana sits at $108, Dogecoin at $0.083, and Chainlink lost 7.9% in a single session" — a materially lower SOL print than the ~$112–115 figures cited elsewhere today, showing the pullback intensifying intraday. https://cryptoticker.io/en/crypto-crash-reason-bitcoin-ethereum-october-2026/ - [2026-10-08] The same report frames this as market-wide, not SOL-specific: "The crypto market is deep in the red on Thursday, 8 October 2026, and almost nothing in the top 13 escaped. $Bitcoin is trading at $80,986, down 2.9% in 24 hours, 3.7% over seven days and now 7.5% below where it started the year." A market-wide deleveraging event tends to push altcoins like SOL down faster than Bitcoin, favoring the downside strike over the upside one in the near term. https://cryptoticker.io/en/crypto-crash-reason-bitcoin-ethereum-october-2026/ - [2026-10-08] The proximate trigger is monetary policy, not crypto-specific news: "The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September, and the minutes of that meeting landed on Wednesday, 7 October. The message was not what risk assets wanted to hear: most participants expect another hike to be appropriate before year-end" — a second hike before Dec 31 would be a fresh macro headwind squarely inside this market's remaining window. https://cryptoticker.io/en/crypto-crash-reason-bitcoin-ethereum-october-2026/ - [2026-10-08] Leverage dynamics compound the downside risk: "Over the full 24 hours, CoinGlass counted around $546 million in liquidations across the market, with 88% of them longs... The market did not just deleverage. It flipped net short." A net-short positioning shift is a status-quo-inertia argument for continued downside pressure rather than a swift reversal toward $140. https://cryptoticker.io/en/crypto-crash-reason-bitcoin-ethereum-october-2026/ - [2026-10-08] The report also flags a psychological/technical risk marker: "Friday, 10 October, marks one year since the largest liquidation day in crypto history, and traders remember it. Liquidation heatmaps had already flagged a dense cluster of leveraged longs near $82,600 before Wednesday's drop." This raises the odds of another sharp de-risking event in the days immediately following the question's current date, which would push SOL further from $140 and closer to $60. https://cryptoticker.io/en/crypto-crash-reason-bitcoin-ethereum-october-2026/ - [2026-10-08] A dedicated SOL technical note (published the same day) lays out a concrete bearish path: "A sustained daily close below $110–$116 would be the key bearish confirmation. The cited daily analysis says that such a close would expose a $99–$104 demand area." That $99–$104 zone is a plausible intermediate stop well below $110 but still ~40-65% above $60 — showing the "next leg down" scenario under discussion targets $104, not an imminent re-test of $60, which undercuts the case for a fast move to the lower strike too. https://cryptodaily.co.uk/2026/10/solana-price-prediction-104-etf-outflows - [2026-10-08] The same analysis explicitly rejects an immediate bearish certainty: "The case for treating $104 as a certain prediction is weakened by the broader data. RSI at 48.816 is neither oversold nor indicative of the extreme weakness that would independently confirm a deep sell-off; SOL also remains above its 50-day EMA and 200-day SMA." This cuts against a straight-line, status-quo move to $60 as well, supporting the "neither strike reached, 50-50" branch of the NO case over the horizon to Dec 31. https://cryptodaily.co.uk/2026/10/solana-price-prediction-104-etf-outflows - [2026-10-08] Upside resistance is stacked well below $140: the same piece lists "$122–$125 | Higher resistance zone | Triangle upper boundary and recent rejection/high area" and "$126–$130 | Higher resistance band | Technical resistance above the breakout floor" — meaning SOL would need to clear at least two distinct resistance bands above its October highs before even approaching the $140 strike, a higher bar than the single $104 support test needed on the downside path. https://cryptodaily.co.uk/2026/10/solana-price-prediction-104-etf-outflows - [2026-10-08] Independent short-term model forecasts cluster far from $140: one tracker's 10-day-out projection is "The Solana price prediction for the next 10 days suggests a move toward $122.44." and a separate weekly technical model caps October upside at "A close above $124.93 opens $130 to $134." — both stopping short of $140 even in their bullish cases, reinforcing that a fast breach of the higher strike is not the consensus near-term path. https://www.coinlore.com/coin/solana/forecast/price-prediction, https://coindcx.com/blog/price-predictions/solana-price-weekly - [2026-10-08] Macro context for Bitcoin (SOL's dominant correlation driver) shows deteriorating conditions into year-end: "Bitcoin surged 44% over 90 days but remains 34% below its all-time high and is still down for 2026... With a 64% probability of another Fed rate hike and the 10-year Treasury yielding 5.17%, bonds now rival Bitcoin for investor capital." Rising real yields competing with crypto is a structural headwind that could delay or prevent a $140 breach before Dec 31. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-price-prediction-october-2026-141555670.html - [2026-10-08] Oil-driven inflation risk adds to the bearish macro mix: "With no clear timeline for resolving issues in the Strait, the oil market could significantly affect Bitcoin's price in October, whether before or after the Fed's meeting." Sustained high oil prices into the Oct 27-28 FOMC meeting could keep risk assets, including SOL, pinned below resistance levels well short of $140 for the remainder of the window. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-price-prediction-october-2026-141555670.html BOTTOM LINE: As of Oct 8, 2026 SOL has already slipped intraday to roughly $108 amid a broad, leverage-driven, Fed-hike-fear-triggered crypto selloff with net-short positioning and a feared repeat of an Oct 10 liquidation anniversary, while independent short-term technical models cap plausible October/November upside near $130–$134 — well below $140 — and treat $99–$104 (not $60) as the next bearish target; this combination supports a NO outcome via either a slow grind to $60 that is not guaranteed to complete by Dec 31, or, more plausibly given the stacked resistance bands above spot, a scenario where neither extreme strike is reached and the market resolves 50-50. NOT FOUND: A primary Binance 1-minute-candle confirmation of either strike being touched at any point in the dataset examined; also no dedicated forecast specifically modeling the probability of a "neither-reached" 50-50 outcome for this contract.