Will the United States have at least 4,800 data centers listed in 2026?

- [2026-10-08] Data Center Map's official USA page (the resolution source) currently states: "We currently have 4767 data centers listed, from 50 states in USA (America)." https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/ - [2026-10-08] Data Center Map's global database page corroborates the same figure: "We currently have 12259 data centers listed, from 179 countries worldwide" with USA listed at 4767. https://www.datacentermap.com/datacenters/ - [2026-06-01] Per the question's stated baseline, the Data Center Map US count was 4,313 as of June 1, 2026 (per market rules), implying growth of about 454 listings (≈10.5%) in roughly 4 months to reach 4,767 by early October 2026. - [2026-09-?] A third-party aggregator citing Statista/Data Center Map reported "As of April 14, 2026, there were a reported 4,767 data centers in the United States, the most of any country worldwide." This matches the current live figure almost exactly, suggesting the count may have been roughly static or slow-moving between April and October 2026, or that different snapshots are being recycled across sites. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1228433/data-centers-worldwide-by-country/ - [2025-12-12] A year-end-2025 secondary report cited "Datacentermap.com says there are 4,287 data centers in the United States." This is consistent with gradual growth from ~4,287 (Dec 2025) → 4,313 (Jun 2026) → 4,767 (current, Oct 2026). https://legallysociable.com/2025/12/12/how-many-data-centers-does-the-united-states-have-want-and-need/ - [2026-10-05] A separate competitor tracker (dcmap.us, not the resolution source but illustrative of sector growth) shows a much larger and still-growing universe: "All 5,098 tracked facilities and projects appear on the map... for 5,098 US data center facilities and projects." https://dcmap.us/ - [2026-08-?] dcmap.us's August 2026 snapshot showed "this directory tracks 4,998 US data center facilities and projects: 3,359 operational, 378 under construction, and 1,042 planned, plus 69 paused and 150 inactive or historical." https://dcmap.us/stats/ - [2026-10-05] electricchoice.com's October 2026 tracker (a different methodology, not the resolution source) counts a far smaller universe: "National Facility & Power Distribution Map October 2026 Edition • 3,448 Facilities." https://www.electricchoice.com/datacenters/ - [2025-11-?] NREL's national map (a government source, illustrative but not the resolution criterion) stated "See where more than 4,000 data centers are located across the US... This map from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory...provides a snapshot of data centers in the US as of November 2025." https://www.maps.com/data-center-map-shows-data-centers-and-energy-infrastructure/ BOTTOM LINE: The resolution source, Data Center Map, currently (as fetched 2026-10-08) lists **4,767** US data centers — up from the question's stated 4,313 baseline on June 1, 2026, and already closing in on the 4,800 threshold needed for a "Yes" resolution by end of 2026. Given the pace of listing growth seen over 2025-2026 (roughly 450+ new listings added in four months), crossing 4,800 before year-end appears highly plausible, though Data Center Map's self-submitted database can show irregular, lumpy updates. NOT FOUND: An official Data Center Map historical changelog or press release explaining the exact timing/dates of the jump from 4,313 (June 1) to 4,767 (current); no explicit Data Center Map snapshot dated between June and September 2026 was found to show the trajectory in finer granularity.

- [2026-06-01] The question's own baseline: Data Center Map listed more than 1,500 new data centers are in various stages of development nationwide, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of data from Data Center Map , and the contract's stated June 1, 2026 count was 4,313 (per market rules), implying roughly 487 more listings were needed to reach the 4,800 threshold. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/04/13/most-new-data-centers-in-the-us-are-coming-to-rural-areas/ - [2026-02-19] Pew Research's analysis used Data Center Map data Data on the number and location of U.S. data centers comes from Data Center Map, one of the oldest and most comprehensive industry databases. It is current as of Feb. 19, 2026. State-level figures summed to roughly 4,000–4,300 facilities at that time (e.g., Virginia 685, Texas 466, California 331), consistent with the question's 4,313 figure a few months later, indicating slow, steady growth in early 2026. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/04/13/most-new-data-centers-in-the-us-are-coming-to-rural-areas/ - [2025-12-12] A year-end 2025 snapshot reported Datacentermap.com says there are 4,287 data centers in the United States. This shows the count grew only modestly (~4,287 to ~4,313) over the ~6 months leading into the June 2026 baseline, i.e. a slow-growth regime before an apparent acceleration later in 2026. https://legallysociable.com/2025/12/12/how-many-data-centers-does-the-united-states-have-want-and-need/ - [2026-07-22] Kalshi's own research desk, drawing on its related markets, explicitly tracked this same metric: Expected number of active U.S. data centers rising from roughly 4,700 to above 5,100. Kalshi markets show the expected number of active U.S. data centers rising to 5,120 by year end, up from a forecast of 4,700 in early June. This is a strong "market-implied forecast" track record data point — Kalshi's own trader-derived expectation in July 2026 was already well above the 4,800 strike for year-end, and the forecast was revised upward (not downward) between June and July, suggesting the trend has consistently surprised to the upside. https://kalshi.com/research/insights/the-economics-of-compute - [2026-10-08] The current live Data Center Map USA page (fetched today) shows We currently have 4767 data centers listed, from 50 states in USA (America). This is only ~33 listings short of the 4,800 threshold, with roughly 3 months remaining before the Dec 31, 2026 deadline. https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/ - [2026-10-08] Implied growth rate: from 4,313 (June 1) to 4,767 (Oct 8) is +454 listings in ~19 weeks, or ~24 new listings/week. At that pace, crossing 4,800 (need +33) would take roughly 1.4 more weeks — i.e., the base-rate trend extrapolation implies the threshold would likely be crossed well before year-end 2026, absent a slowdown. https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/ - [2025-10-24] Pew's October 2025 analysis of the same source described slower, steadier growth language: One of the oldest and most comprehensive industry databases is Data Center Map, which estimates that the U.S. has over 4,000 data centers, including operational sites and those under development. This confirms Data Center Map has been in the 4,000+ range for roughly a year, with growth accelerating more recently as AI buildout intensified. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/10/24/what-we-know-about-energy-use-at-us-data-centers-amid-the-ai-boom/ - [2026-10-07] Other, differently-scoped trackers show much higher counts using broader "pipeline" definitions (e.g., Aterio's 8,111 facilities including announced/not-yet-built projects, or dcmap.us's 4,998–5,098), underscoring that counting methodology varies widely across providers; Data Center Map's own count (the one specified in the resolution criteria) is more conservative than pipeline-inclusive trackers but has historically still been on an upward trajectory. https://www.aterio.io/insights/us-data-centers , https://dcmap.us/ - [2026-07-22] Kalshi's research piece also flags a risk factor relevant to whether growth continues at pace: grid connections still take 2-3 years to approve, and a growing wave of state and local moratoriums (e.g. New York, which just became the first state to halt new data-center permits in line with ~115 municipalities nationwide), adds a policy constraint on top of the physical one. This is a downside risk to the extrapolated growth rate, though it has not yet shown up as a slowdown in the Data Center Map count through October 2026. BOTTOM LINE: The base-rate/trend picture is strongly favorable to YES: Data Center Map's U.S. count grew only slowly through 2025 (~4,287 in Dec 2025) but accelerated sharply in 2026, reaching 4,313 by June 1 and 4,767 by October 8 — a pace (~24/week) that would cross 4,800 within roughly two weeks if sustained, and Kalshi's own July 2026 research already modeled trader expectations rising to 5,120 by year-end, well above the 4,800 strike. NOT FOUND: A complete historical month-by-month time series of Data Center Map's USA count (to compute a more rigorous growth-rate base rate); any record of this specific Kalshi contract (or an identical prior-year threshold contract) having resolved before, which would give a direct historical resolution base rate; confirmation of the exact "listed" count on the specific Dec 31, 2026 resolution date (not yet available, as that date is in the future).

YES means: Data Center Map's United States listing count reaches at least 4,800 facilities at any point before the end of 2026 (the market resolves Yes if the threshold is hit by Dec 31, 2026). - [2026-10-08] The resolution source itself currently shows "We currently have 4767 data centers listed, from 50 states in USA (America)." This is only 33 listings below the 4,800 threshold, with nearly three months remaining before the Dec 31, 2026 deadline. https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/ - [2026-10-08] The global database page corroborates this figure, placing the USA at 4,767 out of a worldwide total of 12,259 data centers, confirming the USA page is not an outlier or caching artifact. https://www.datacentermap.com/datacenters/ - [2026-10-05] A competing, broader-methodology tracker (dcmap.us) independently shows the underlying industry inventory still expanding fast: "5,098 facilities, 395.1 GW in reported power, 276.3 GW planned and 69.6 GW under construction" as of October 2026, up from 4,998 in August per the colleague report — roughly +100 facilities added in two months on a comparable crowd-tracked methodology, suggesting ample raw supply of new sites that Data Center Map's own submission pipeline can continue to absorb. https://dcmap.us/ - [2026-10-03] A separate independent directory (malachi.energy), updated October 3, 2026, estimates "As of October 2026, the United States has an estimated 5,274 data centers across 46 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico" , reinforcing that the true physical inventory of US data center sites is well above Data Center Map's conservative, self-submitted 4,767 figure — meaning there is a large pool of real-world facilities not yet listed on Data Center Map that could still be added before year-end. https://malachi.energy/data-centers - [2026-10-07] Aterio's daily-updated pipeline tracker counts "7,249 data centers in the active US pipeline: 2,113 operational, 850 under construction, and 4,286 announced" as of October 7, 2026, underscoring that thousands of new projects are actively being announced and broken ground on nationally — supplying a steady stream of candidate new entries for Data Center Map's crowdsourced listings. https://www.aterio.io/insights/us-data-centers - [2026-09] A rival facility tracker (usdatamap.com) logged concrete September 2026 groundbreakings and project confirmations — e.g., "Aligned Breaks Ground on 2 GW 'Project Phoenix' Campus in Shippingport, Pennsylvania" and "Amazon Confirms $10B, 13-Building Data Center Project in Wharton County, Texas" — concrete evidence of ongoing, multi-site facility creation events each month that are natural candidates for near-term Data Center Map listing additions. https://usdatamap.com/ - [2026-10-08] Mechanism for YES: Data Center Map is a largely self-submitted/operator-maintained directory; given it already closed roughly a 454-listing gap (4,313→4,767) in about 19 weeks per the colleague analysis, even a markedly slower pace (just ~2 new listings/week) would be sufficient to add the remaining 33 listings well before the Dec 31, 2026 deadline, leaving a wide safety margin. https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/ BOTTOM LINE: The resolution source is already within 33 listings (≈0.7%) of the 4,800 threshold with nearly three months left, and multiple independent trackers (dcmap.us, malachi.energy, Aterio, usdatamap.com) confirm the underlying US data-center buildout is large, active, and still growing in October 2026 — giving Data Center Map ample raw material to clear 4,800 well before year-end even if its recent growth pace slows sharply. NOT FOUND: No official Data Center Map press release or submission log explaining daily/weekly listing additions; no Wayback Machine snapshot of datacentermap.com/usa/ for July–September 2026 to pinpoint exactly when the count crossed intermediate milestones (e.g., 4,500, 4,600).

YES means: Data Center Map's United States listings count reaches at least 4,800 on its official count page at some point before the end of 2026 (Dec 31, 2026), as read by Kalshi at resolution. - [2026-10-07] Texas Governor Abbott directed the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality to halt all new data-center permits statewide until ERCOT/TWDB audits are complete, with a compliance update due Oct. 19, 2026 — Texas is one of the largest data-center states (466 listings per Pew's Feb. 2026 snapshot cited by colleagues), so a sustained statewide permit freeze directly chokes off new greenfield listings from the state's biggest growth engine. https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-directs-tceq-to-halt-data-center-permits - [2026-07-14] New York Governor Hochul signed Executive Order 62 creating the state's first statewide moratorium, imposing a one-year pause on discretionary environmental permitting for data centers over 50MW, removing another top-5 state (685 listings per Pew) from the pipeline of new permitted projects for the remainder of 2026. https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/using-temporary-pauses-to-develop-permanent-regulation - [2026-10-07] A moratorium tracker counts 45 states with an active data-center ban or moratorium somewhere in the state (local or statewide) and "294 Total Local Moratoriums and Bans Were Passed Between Jan-Jul 2026," which it says is "already 4x higher than all bans in 2025," indicating the regulatory headwind intensified sharply in 2026 rather than easing. https://programs.com/resources/data-center-moratoriums-tracker/ - [2026-10-07] The same tracker shows Ohio (89), Michigan (87), Georgia (75) and North Carolina (55) alone account for 37% of all local moratoriums, meaning the slowdown is concentrated in states that otherwise would be supplying large numbers of new site listings. https://programs.com/resources/data-center-moratoriums-tracker/ - [2026-10-07] A companion tracker on the same site counts 59 large US data center projects cancelled since 2024, with "Developers withdrew 35 projects and governments denied 22," showing that even previously announced/listed projects are being pulled rather than only new ones being blocked, a direct downward pressure on any cumulative count. https://programs.com/resources/data-center-project-tracker/ - [2026-10-08] Data Center Map's own methodology page states its listings include pre-construction "Land Banked" and "Planned" stages that do not require permits or power to be secured, and that "the database will always have missing listings as well as incorrect, incomplete or outdated listings," with M&A cited as "the most frequent reason for outdated listings" — i.e., the operator-submitted, self-reported nature of the dataset makes the count inherently volatile and capable of plateauing or even reversing if operators stop updating or M&A consolidates listings. https://www.datacentermap.com/research/data/ - [2026-10-08] That same official data page states the global total is "14,426" listings, which is notably higher than the "12,259" global figure colleagues fetched on the same date from a different Data Center Map page — this internal inconsistency across the provider's own pages illustrates that the published count is not a single stable, authoritative number but can vary by page/caching (the site itself notes "counts on the website may be cached for up to 24 hours"), creating resolution-source ambiguity that could work against a clean crossing of 4,800 being recognized. - [2026-09-21] Coverage of the Texas order notes it followed an earlier August moratorium on new data-center grid connections, meaning Texas has now stacked two separate halts (grid approvals, then all environmental permits) within two months, suggesting the restriction regime is actively escalating in Q4 2026 rather than being a one-off, static constraint already priced into the June–October growth trend. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/21/texas-governor-abbott-ai-data-center-permits.html - [2026-10-08] Local-level pauses continue to accumulate into Q4 2026 (e.g., Pima County, AZ approved a 120-day moratorium in September 2026; a Fort Worth, TX moratorium process begun in August 2026 was set to take effect in February 2027), showing the restrictive trend is still spreading geographically and temporally right up to the question's resolution window rather than abating. https://savrn.com/data-center-moratorium-tracker BOTTOM LINE: Even though the observed count trajectory (4,313→4,767) looks like it is on pace to clear 4,800, 2026 has brought an unprecedented wave of permitting moratoria — a statewide freeze in Texas (Sept. 2026), a statewide executive order in New York (July 2026), and roughly 294 local bans/pauses in the first seven months of 2026 alone (4x 2025's total) — concentrated in the very states that supply the most listings, plus dozens of outright project cancellations and an admittedly volatile, self-reported, inconsistently-cached count methodology at the resolution source itself; any of these could stall, reverse, or create definitional ambiguity around the final count before Dec. 31, 2026. NOT FOUND: No Data Center Map snapshot or archived count between June and September 2026 showing the week-by-week trajectory (to confirm whether growth has already slowed since the moratorium wave began in Q3); no statement from Data Center Map itself addressing whether pending moratoria have measurably affected new-listing submission rates.