Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $225,000?

- [2026-03-26] NY State Comptroller DiNapoli's official annual estimate reported the **2025** average Wall Street bonus at $246,900 (up 6% from 2024's $244,700), well above the $225,000 strike, from a record $49.2 billion bonus pool. Wall Street's securities industry bonus pool reached a record $49.2 billion in 2025, up 9% from the previous year, while the average bonus rose 6% to $246,900, according to New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli's annual estimate. This is the most recent *actual* OSC bonus figure, since the **2026** bonus estimate (the figure this contract resolves on) has not yet been produced. Source: https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2026/03/dinapoli-246900-average-bonus-on-wall-street-up-6-percent-in-2025 - [2026-10-06] OSC's latest interim report (on profits/employment, not bonuses) shows Wall Street securities-industry pretax profits hit $45.9 billion in H1 2026, up 51.3% y/y, already exceeding NYC's full-year 2026 forecast of $45.3 billion; profits reaching $45.9 billion in the first half of 2026, up 51.3% from the same period last year, according to a report released today by New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli . Source: https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2026/10/wall-street-first-half-profits-soar-nearly-46-billion - [2026-10-06] Comptroller DiNapoli stated explicitly that he expects the 2026 bonus pool to increase (not just the dollar amount but relative to the 2025 record), contradicting an earlier, more bearish New York City financial-plan projection. Combined with strong profits and employment, DiNapoli expects the 2026 bonus pool to increase, barring significant economic disruption, compared with the city's forecast of a 20% decline. Source: https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2026/10/wall-street-first-half-profits-soar-nearly-46-billion - [2026-10-06] The same OSC report confirms the official 2026 bonus estimate (the number that will determine resolution) is scheduled for release in March 2027: DiNapoli will release the office's 2026 bonus estimates in March 2027 based on tax withholding data. This falls before the 2027-03-31 trading close, historically on/around March 26 each year. Source: https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2026/10/wall-street-first-half-profits-soar-nearly-46-billion - [2026-10-06] If H1 2026 pace continues, full-year 2026 profits could exceed $90 billion, surpassing the prior record of $65.1 billion set in 2025; If the first-half pace continued, annual profits could exceed $90 billion, the comptroller said. Source: https://www.fingerlakes1.com/2026/10/06/wall-street-profits-hit-45-9-billion-in-first-half-raising-new-york-tax-stakes/ - [2026-10-06] Compensation spending (salaries, bonuses, equity) at NYSE member firms rose 18.8% in H1 2026 versus H1 2025, a smaller percentage gain than profit growth but still a strong signal for year-end bonuses. NYSE member firms spent 18.8% more on employee compensation, including salaries, bonuses and equity awards, in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Source: https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2026/10/wall-street-first-half-profits-soar-nearly-46-billion - [2026-10-06] Securities-industry employment in NYC hit a record 207,400 in 2025 and is on pace to add roughly 5,300 more jobs in 2026, a headcount increase that — all else equal — could dilute the per-employee average bonus even as the total pool grows. Employment in New York City's securities industry rose to 207,400 jobs in 2025, the highest level since data tracking began in 2000. This was an increase of 7,000 jobs, or 3.5%, from the prior year. Preliminary data for 2026 show the industry on pace to add an additional 5,300 jobs in New York City this year. Source: https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2026/10/wall-street-first-half-profits-soar-nearly-46-billion - [2026-10-06] Compensation consultant Johnson Associates' latest (August 2026) forecast — cited approvingly in the OSC report — projects double-digit to 30% bonus increases across most Wall Street IB/trading functions for 2026 performance: equity sales/trading & ECM +20–30%, M&A advisory +15–20%, IB/commercial banking all-in +10–15%+. Source: https://prospectrockpartners.com/what-investment-bankers-can-actually-expect-to-earn-in-2026/ - [2026-08-05] An earlier Johnson Associates update (August 2026) similarly projected bonuses rising 10% to 15%+ for investment/commercial bankers, with equity traders and M&A dealmakers doing even better: Bankers working in equity sales and trading are projected to see bonuses rise between 20-30% or more, the biggest increases in the finance industry, according to the projections. Advisory bankers, including M&A dealmakers, could see increases of 15%-20%. Overall bonuses in investment and commercial banking are projected to rise 10-15%+. Source: https://www.axios.com/2026/08/05/wall-street-bonuses-ai-deals - [2026-10-06] DiNapoli flagged downside risks that could still compress year-end bonuses versus H1 momentum: Despite geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, the industry has remained resilient. Barring a recession or major market disruption, strong profits should continue to provide an important boost to state and city revenue. Separately, OSC's report cited elevated 10-year Treasury yields (2.5-decade high around 5.35%) as a late-2026 risk factor. Source: https://qz.com/wall-street-profits-record-90-billion-bonuses-2026-100626 - [2026-10-06] New York City's own financial plan remains comparatively bearish, having assumed a 20% decline in the 2026 securities-industry bonus pool versus the comptroller's now more bullish stance — this divergence is a key source of forecast uncertainty going into year-end. DiNapoli expects the 2026 bonus pool to increase, barring significant economic disruption, compared with New York City's projection of a 20% decline. Source: https://qz.com/wall-street-profits-record-90-billion-bonuses-2026-100626 BOTTOM LINE: As of October 2026, no official 2026 average-bonus figure exists yet (due March 2027, before the contract's close); but the trajectory is strongly positive — 2025's actual average bonus ($246,900) already cleared $225,000, H1 2026 profits are up over 51% y/y and on pace for a record ~$90B year, and both the Comptroller and Johnson Associates' consultant forecasts point to a higher 2026 bonus pool/average, despite some NYC-budget skepticism and macro risk caveats (rates, recession, AI-bubble concerns). NOT FOUND: No numeric 2026 average-bonus point estimate exists yet from OSC (official figure due March 2027); no OSC projection for an exact 2026 average-bonus dollar figure (only pool/qualitative "expects increase" language) was found.

- [2026-03-26] OSC's official annual estimate reported Wall Street's securities industry bonus pool reached a record $49.2 billion, up 9% from the previous year, while the average bonus rose 6% to $246,900, according to New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli's annual estimate for 2025 — already well above the $225,000 threshold. https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2026/03/dinapoli-246900-average-bonus-on-wall-street-up-6-percent-in-2025 - [2025-03-26] For 2024, OSC reported the average bonus paid to employees in New York City's securities industry for 2024 reached $244,700, up 31.5% from last year — also above the threshold. https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2025/03/dinapoli-wall-street-bonus-pool-reaches-record-high-475-billion-2024 - [2024-03-19] By contrast, for 2023 OSC reported the average Wall Street bonus fell slightly last year to $176,500 as firms took a "more cautious approach" to compensation, New York state's comptroller reported , and 2022's average was $180,000 — both below $225,000. https://www.marketbeat.com/articles/the-average-bonus-on-wall-street-last-year-was-176500-thats-down-slightly-from-2022-2024-03-19 - [2024-03-19] Historical range cited by OSC: the average Wall Street bonus hit a record high $240,400 in 2021, compared to a relative low of $111,400 in 2011 — showing high year-to-year volatility over the past 15 years. https://www.marketbeat.com/articles/the-average-bonus-on-wall-street-last-year-was-176500-thats-down-slightly-from-2022-2024-03-19 - Reference class (last 5 reported years, OSC method): 2021 $240,400 (Yes), 2022 $180,000 (No), 2023 $176,500 (No), 2024 $244,700 (Yes), 2025 $246,900 (Yes) — 3 of last 5 years above $225,000, with the three most recent "boom" years all clearing the bar comfortably by $15,000-$22,000. - [2026-10-06] For 2026 itself, OSC's half-year update stated profits reaching $45.9 billion in the first half of 2026, up 51.3% from the same period last year... DiNapoli also noted that industry jobs reached a record high in 2026 and expects the 2026 bonus pool to increase, compared with the city's projection of a 20% decline . https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2026/10/wall-street-first-half-profits-soar-nearly-46-billion - [2026-10-06] Same report: NYSE member firms spent 18.8% more on employee compensation, including salaries, bonuses and equity awards, in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025 , reinforcing an above-trend compensation trajectory. https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2026/10/wall-street-first-half-profits-soar-nearly-46-billion - [2026-10-06] Bloomberg reporting on the same data: A blockbuster year for New York's trading and investment-banking firms is poised to deliver record earnings for the industry, with profit on pace to exceed $90 billion, and bonuses expected to reach an all-time high... The estimate for annual earnings, based on growth in the first half of 2026, would comfortably surpass last year's record of $65.1 billion . https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-06/wall-street-eyes-record-bonuses-as-profit-heads-past-90-billion - [2026-08-05] Independent compensation-consultancy forecaster Johnson Associates (track record of directionally accurate early-year bonus calls in recent cycles) projected broad-based increases: Bankers working in equity sales and trading are projected to see bonuses rise between 20-30% or more, the biggest increases in the finance industry... Advisory bankers, including M&A dealmakers, could see increases of 15%-20%... Overall bonuses in investment and commercial banking are projected to rise 10-15%+ . https://www.axios.com/2026/08/05/wall-street-bonuses-ai-deals - [2026-05-07] An earlier, more cautious Johnson Associates read (pre-H1 data) had flagged downside risk: Wall Street bonuses are likely to be flat to slightly positive in 2026, as geopolitical tensions due to the Iran war and the private credit turmoil could slow the economy and incentives — illustrating that even the main independent forecaster's own view swung sharply bullish as 2026 data came in. https://kfgo.com/2026/05/07/wall-street-bonuses-seen-flat-to-slightly-positive-in-2026-as-iran-war-and-private-credit-turmoil-hurt/ - [2026-10-07] A quantitative extrapolation from OSC's historical bonus-to-profit ratios (2022-2025) estimated the 2026 pool could land between roughly $55.7 billion and $59.4 billion, up 13% to 21% versus 2025's $49.2bn pool — a scenario consistent with average bonuses well above $225,000 given headcount growth is modest relative to pool growth. https://businessmodelanalyst.com/wall-street-bonuses-record-lag-profits/ NOT FOUND: No polling/betting-market historical track record specific to this Kalshi/NY-Comptroller bonus series was found (this appears to be a newer contract type without multi-year market history); no official OSC point estimate for the 2026 average bonus exists yet — the formal 2026 report is due in March 2027. BOTTOM LINE: In the OSC's own reporting history, the average bonus has exceeded $225,000 in 3 of the last 5 years, and in each of the last two years (2024, 2025) it cleared that bar comfortably ($244,700 and $246,900); current-cycle indicators (record H1 2026 profits, record headcount, 18.8% higher compensation spending, and bullish independent consultant forecasts) all point toward 2026 being another "boom" year like 2024-2025 rather than a "down" year like 2022-2023, making the historical base rate and current trend both favor exceeding $225,000.

YES means: The NY State Comptroller's official 2026 average Wall Street bonus estimate (due ~March 2027) is reported above $225,000. - [2026-08-07] Johnson Associates, described as the consultancy whose projections are "the closest thing the Street has to a shared scoreboard," raised its 2026 forecast for the second time this year in early August, revised up roughly three percentage points from its Q1 estimate , after a blockbuster Q2, underscoring that the trend through the year has been toward larger, not smaller, bonus gains. Source: https://prospectrockpartners.com/what-investment-bankers-can-actually-expect-to-earn-in-2026/ - [2026-08-07] The same analysis quantifies the earnings backdrop behind that upgrade: equities revenue was up 69–86% across the three banks that broke it out , and large-cap M&A volume was up 90% in the first half of 2026, directly supporting Johnson Associates' 20–30% bonus projection for equity sales/trading. Source: https://prospectrockpartners.com/what-investment-bankers-can-actually-expect-to-earn-in-2026/ - [2026-08-07] Crucially for the "average bonus" metric (which depends on pool growth outpacing headcount growth), the report notes banks are expanding pay per head rather than per hire: Johnson Associates just raised its 2026 forecast for the second time this year on the back of record results, calling 2026 the "Year of the Bank" , while aggregate headcount at the largest banks has barely moved, meaning bonus-pool gains concentrate into higher per-employee averages rather than being diluted. Source: https://prospectrockpartners.com/what-investment-bankers-can-actually-expect-to-earn-in-2026/ - [2026-10-07] Reinforcing the OSC's own forward guidance, a Korean financial outlet citing the WSJ and the Comptroller's office reports the office's unambiguous framing of 2026 as on course to beat the 2025 record: "That diverges sharply from New York City's original outlook. The city had expected Wall Street bonuses to shrink about 20% this year, but with results running stronger than anticipated, another record is now seen as possible." Source: https://en.sedaily.com/international/2026/10/08/wall-street-on-track-to-top-record-246900-average-bonus - [2026-10-07] The same piece confirms NYC tax receipts from the securities industry are already running ahead of plan for fiscal 2026 — New York City collected $7.8 billion from the securities industry in fiscal 2026, up 15.8% from a year earlier and above the previous high of $6.9 billion in fiscal 2022 — a real-money confirmation (not just a forecast) that compensation-linked tax withholding is accelerating well above 2025's record-bonus year. Source: https://en.sedaily.com/international/2026/10/08/wall-street-on-track-to-top-record-246900-average-bonus - [2026-06-23] A firm-level data point on pay trajectory: Goldman Sachs' own disclosed compensation metrics after Q2 2026 showed compensation spending rose 10% while headcount grew 4%, lifting average pay to about $393,000 — a single large firm's blended average (salary+bonus) already running far above the $225,000 industrywide bonus-only threshold, illustrating how much slack exists even if the broader industry average bonus trails individual large-bank figures. - [2026-10-13 upcoming]: Goldman Sachs' Q3 2026 earnings, due October 13, 2026, are a near-term catalyst; consensus estimates (per TipRanks/Tickeron) still project high-single-digit EPS growth year-over-year off an exceptional Q2 base, meaning further confirmation of strong full-year profits — the key underlying driver OSC uses for its bonus-pool modeling — is expected before the contract's close. Source: https://tickeron.com/earnings/GS/ - [2026-03-19] Base-rate confirmation from OSC's own historical series: in the only two years comparable in scale of profit growth to 2026's trajectory (2021 and 2024), OSC reported average bonuses of $240,400 and $244,700 (later revised to $257,500 for 2021) — both far above $225,000 — showing that whenever full-year securities-industry profits roughly double or more, the resulting average bonus has cleared the threshold by $15,000–$32,000, not marginally. Source: https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2022/03/nys-comptroller-dinapoli-wall-streets-2021-bonuses-set-new-record - [2026-03-26] For context on margin of safety: 2025's actual average bonus of $246,900 sits $21,900 above the $225,000 strike even though 2025 pool growth (9%) was comparatively modest versus profit growth (30%); 2026 profit growth is already running far hotter (51.3% in H1), implying the pool/average would need a sharp deceleration in H2 to fall back toward—let alone below—$225,000. Source: https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2026/03/dinapoli-246900-average-bonus-on-wall-street-up-6-percent-in-2025 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case rests on convergent, primary-sourced evidence that 2026 is tracking as a "boom" year even stronger than 2024-2025 (both of which cleared $225,000 by $20,000+): record H1 bank earnings, an upwardly-revised independent bonus forecaster (Johnson Associates, now on its second 2026 upgrade), accelerating NYC securities-tax receipts, and the Comptroller's own public expectation of pool growth — all pointing toward the 2026 average bonus landing comfortably above $225,000 when OSC reports in March 2027. NOT FOUND: No OSC or independent source yet publishes a specific dollar-point estimate for the 2026 average bonus (only directional/percentage guidance); H2 2026 bank earnings data (Q3/Q4) that would further confirm or dent the full-year trajectory were not yet available beyond the pending Oct 13 Goldman release.

YES means: the New York State Comptroller's official 2026 average Wall Street bonus estimate (due March 2027) comes in above $225,000. - [2026-10-07] The comptroller's own report shows pay is structurally sticky relative to profit swings: across the four biggest profit-swing years since 2019, "the New York City bonus pool moved by just 26 to 41 cents for every dollar profits moved, up or down," meaning even a blockbuster profit year does not translate one-for-one into bonus growth. https://businessmodelanalyst.com/wall-street-bonuses-record-lag-profits/ - [2026-10-07] Applying that historical "cents-per-profit-dollar" ratio to the H1 pace implies a 2026 pool of roughly $55.7–59.4 billion — but even the article's author stresses this "is a range built from four data points, not a forecast, and it assumes the second half matches the first." https://businessmodelanalyst.com/wall-street-bonuses-record-lag-profits/ - [2026-10-07] A concrete headcount-dilution mechanism: 2025's $246,900 average bonus was calculated on preliminary employment of 198,200, but after revision to 207,400, "the average per worker is closer to $237,200," showing the denominator can meaningfully shrink the reported average after the fact — and 2026 headcount is projected to grow further still. https://businessmodelanalyst.com/wall-street-bonuses-record-lag-profits/ - [2026-10-07] A fresh, previously unreported rate shock: "the Federal Reserve raised rates in September for the first time in more than three years, and the 10-year Treasury yield ended September at its highest since 2007," which the same report flags as a reason "the second half can fall short of the first." https://businessmodelanalyst.com/wall-street-bonuses-record-lag-profits/ - [2026-10-07] Interest expense already dwarfs compensation at NYSE member firms — "$58.9 billion of interest expense against $33.3 billion of compensation, about 1.8 times as much" in Q2 2026 — so rising funding costs squeeze the same profit pool that is supposed to fund bigger bonuses. https://businessmodelanalyst.com/wall-street-bonuses-record-lag-profits/ - [2026-10-07] H1 2026 profit growth was driven almost entirely by one-off deal activity rather than broad trading strength: "underwriting up 68%, commissions up 24.4%, account supervision fees up 16.4%. Trading revenue barely moved, up 1.8%" — a composition that is vulnerable to any slowdown in the IPO/M&A pipeline in H2. https://businessmodelanalyst.com/wall-street-bonuses-record-lag-profits/ - [2026-10-06] New York City's own official financial plan — the government body with the most direct fiscal stake in the outcome — explicitly assumes "a 30% decline in 2026 profits, to $45.3 billion" and a corresponding "20% decline" in the bonus pool, a formal institutional forecast that directly contradicts the comptroller's bullish framing. https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2026/10/wall-street-first-half-profits-soar-nearly-46-billion - [2026-10-07] Independent AI-bubble-risk commentary (Forbes, Sept 29 2026) argues "AI funding is tightening across IPOs, credit markets and energy costs," which — if it materializes in H2 2026 — would hit exactly the underwriting/IPO revenue line that powered H1's profit surge. https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2026/09/29/seven-reasons-the-ai-bubble-is-about-to-pop/ - [2026-10-06] A rival news framing (Gokhshtein, citing tariff risk) argues "Trump's tariff escalation has already stalled Wall Street hiring momentum in early 2026," and that state/city targets for 2026 bonus growth "are out of reach" under current trends — illustrating that not all current commentary is uniformly bullish on 2026 even as H1 data looked strong. https://gokhshtein.com/news/2026-10-07-wall-street-bonus-pool-hits-record-492b-2026-outlook-dims - [2026-10-07] Precedent for forecasts overshooting reality: for 2025, "the governor's proposed budget assumed finance-sector bonuses would rise 25.9%" and the city projected "a 15.1% jump," yet the actual OSC figure "fell short of the 15% growth the city had projected," missing even the more conservative official target — showing bullish institutional bonus forecasts have recently proven too optimistic. https://www.thewealthadvisor.com/article/wall-street-bonuses-hit-all-time-record-2025-outlook-2026-already-darkening - [2026-10-06] The comptroller's own H1 report explicitly caveats its optimism — DiNapoli's office "warned that global conflicts, inflation, and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence could threaten the industry and the wider regional economy," leaving open a path where a late-2026/early-2027 shock reverses H1 momentum before the March 2027 tax-withholding data is finalized. https://internationalfinance.com/finance/wall-street-eyes-record-bonuses-as-trading-dealmaking-push-profits-past-usd-90-billion/ - [2026-10-07] Resolution-timing technicality: the official 2026 figure is confirmed for "March 2027" release based on tax-withholding data, with no specific date yet announced; while DiNapoli's office has released its annual estimate by March 26–30 in each of the last several years, any unusual delay past the March 31, 2027 close would leave the contract without the official number it is designed to resolve on. https://businessmodelanalyst.com/wall-street-bonuses-record-lag-profits/ BOTTOM LINE: The mechanical case for NO rests not on profits failing to grow (they clearly have) but on the well-documented fact that Wall Street bonus pools historically capture only 26–41 cents of each incremental profit dollar, that H1 2026 profit gains were concentrated in one-off underwriting/deal activity now exposed to AI-funding and rate risk, and that rising headcount plus a September 2026 Fed hike and a 2007-high 10-year yield could compress H2 performance and dilute the per-employee average — a combination under which the official March 2027 figure could undershoot the bullish $55–59B pool projections even while still representing a "record" dollar pool. NOT FOUND: No official OSC point estimate or even a qualitative range for the exact 2026 average bonus dollar figure has been published (only pool-level "expects increase" language); no confirmed exact release date for the March 2027 report; no quantified downside scenario from OSC itself (e.g., a bear case comparable to its 2022 -26% report) for 2026.