Will any member of Congress be expelled before 2027?

- [2026-04-13] Facing bipartisan expulsion threats, House members announced plans to bring expulsion resolutions against Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) and Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) over sexual misconduct allegations; members said they would bring resolutions to the floor to expel the Republican Gonzales and Democrat Eric Swalwell, with each motion requiring a two-thirds majority . (texastribune.org) - [2026-04-14] Both Gonzales and Swalwell resigned from Congress rather than face a floor vote; Democrat Eric Swalwell resigned after misconduct allegations, while Republican Tony Gonzales said he would retire following pressure over an affair with a former aide , so neither was actually expelled. (cnn.com, france24.com) - [2026-04-20] Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) faced an imminent expulsion vote after the Ethics Committee found her guilty on 25 of 27 charges tied to misuse of COVID relief funds; the House Ethics Committee's finding "paved the way for a vote by the full House to expel Cherfilus-McCormick, which was supported by representatives of both parties" (en.wikipedia.org). - [2026-04-21] On April 21, 2026, Cherfilus-McCormick resigned from Congress minutes before a hearing on whether she should be expelled , again avoiding an actual expulsion vote. (en.wikipedia.org) - [2026-04-20] H.Res.1193, sponsored by Rep. Nancy Mace, was introduced to expel Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) over allegations including stolen valor and domestic/sexual misconduct; it was referred to the Committee on Ethics . (congress.gov) - [2026-04-20] A retaliatory resolution, H.Res.1197, was introduced by Rep. Cory Mills to expel Rep. Nancy Mace, citing a restraining order and alleged misconduct toward law enforcement; it was referred to the House Committee on Ethics the same day and has had no further floor action since. (congress.gov) - [2026-05-23] Reporting indicated the Ethics Committee investigation into Mills remained unresolved: "As of May 23, 2026, the committee has indicated the investigation is complex and ongoing, with a final report anticipated in several more weeks" , and House leadership was not prioritizing a floor vote. (octagonai.co) - [2026-04-20] Axios reported that Speaker Jeffries signaled he was not prepared to support a retaliatory expulsion measure against Mills before receiving full due process, awaiting the Ethics Committee's report . (axios.com) - [2026-08-18] Cory Mills lost his Republican primary for re-election, per GovTrack tracking of his record; "In August 2026, Mills lost his primary." His term still runs through January 3, 2027, and the expulsion resolution against him (H.Res.1193) remains pending in the Ethics Committee with no scheduled floor vote. (govtrack.us, ballotpedia.org) - [2026-09-01] The only disciplinary floor action in 2026 to actually pass was a censure — not expulsion — of Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC) for misconduct toward former female staffers, by a 413–2 vote. (en.wikipedia.org, citing AP, Sept 1, 2026) - [2026-10-08, as of today] Wikipedia's authoritative list of House expulsions, censures and reprimands shows no expulsion has occurred since George Santos in December 2023; the 2026 entries recorded are censures (Chuck Edwards) and a reprimand (Chuy Garcia), not expulsions. (en.wikipedia.org) - [2026-10-04] NBC's Meet the Press transcript from this week discussed the midterm campaign and corruption/affordability issues broadly but did not report any new expulsion vote or action in Congress. (nbcnews.com) NOT FOUND: No evidence of any scheduled House or Senate floor vote on an expulsion resolution between today (2026-10-08) and the January 1, 2027 deadline; no confirmation of any expulsion actually occurring at any point in 2025–2026; no public timeline for when the Ethics Committee will conclude its Cory Mills investigation or whether Mace's H.Res.1193 will be brought to a privileged floor vote before the midterms/end of session. BOTTOM LINE: Despite an unusually intense wave of 2026 expulsion threats and resolutions (Gonzales, Swalwell, Cherfilus-McCormick, Mills, Mace), every targeted member who faced an imminent vote resigned or retired instead, and no member has actually been expelled; the remaining live resolutions (against Mills and Mace) are stalled in the Ethics Committee with no scheduled vote, making an actual expulsion before January 1, 2027 currently appear unlikely but not impossible given the volatile precedent set this year.

- [2023-11-07] To date, 20 Members of Congress have been expelled: 5 in the House and 15 in the Senate. This covers 237 years of U.S. congressional history (1789–2023), implying an extremely low base rate under normal conditions. https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R45078.html - [2023-11-07] Of 21 expelled members, 17 were expelled for supporting the Confederate States in 1861 and 1862; this was also the last time any Senator was expelled. No senator has been expelled in over 160 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress - [2023-11-30] Outside the Civil War cluster, House expulsions are rare singular events: Michael Myers (1980, bribery/ABSCAM), James Traficant (2002, bribery/corruption conviction), and George Santos (2023, fraud indictments) — "the previous time the House expelled a member came 21 years ago when Rep. James Traficant, D-Ohio, was voted out by a 420-1 margin." https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2023/11/30/if-expelled--george-santos-would-join-this-list-of-disgraced-house-members - [2026-04-20] A historically unusual cluster of expulsion resolutions has emerged in the 119th Congress (2025–2026), with Axios noting the two Florida lawmakers, Cherfilus-McCormick and Mills, could become the seventh and eighth members to ever be expelled from Congress. https://www.axios.com/2026/04/20/house-expulsion-votes-cherfilus-mccormick-mills - [2026-04-21] Consistent with the historical pattern that targeted members usually resign or lose re-election rather than face an actual floor vote, Rep. Cherfilus-McCormick resigned shortly before the House Ethics Committee was due to meet to decide on a punishment for the third-term lawmaker — including a potential expulsion vote. https://www.npr.org/2026/04/21/nx-s1-5793994/florida-democrat-rep-sheila-cherfilus-mccormick-facing-possible-expulsion-resigns - [2026-04-21] NBC noted the high procedural bar that has historically protected members from expulsion: expulsion requires a two-thirds vote of the chamber, meaning it would have taken roughly 70 Democrats to remove her — a high bar. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/democratic-rep-sheila-cherfilus-mccormick-resigns-ethics-probe-rcna341199 - [2026-08-18] Rep. Cory Mills, the other member facing a possible expulsion vote, instead lost his primary rather than being expelled, extending the pattern that electoral or voluntary exits pre-empt formal expulsion: Mills will become the fourth congressman this year to lose his seat after being accused of misconduct against women. https://19thnews.org/2026/08/cory-mills-florida-primary-election/ - [2026-08-18] Reporting also confirms two other members (Swalwell, Gonzales) resigned under expulsion threat rather than face a vote: Tony Gonzales of Texas resigned in April after facing accusations of sexual coercion involving a staffer; Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell of California resigned on the same day after facing accusations of sexual assault. Both men were facing expulsion when they resigned. https://19thnews.org/2026/08/cory-mills-florida-primary-election/ - [2026-04-20] Even censure motions against sitting members have struggled to pass with supermajorities; a Mills censure effort was deflected procedurally: the House voted 310-103 to refer the censure resolution against Mills to the House Ethics Committee -- preventing the lower chamber from having to weigh in on publicly rebuking the congressman. This illustrates how even lesser disciplinary measures frequently stall, reinforcing that actual expulsion votes are rarer still. https://abcnews.com/Politics/house-ethics-committee-investigating-rep-cory-mills/story?id=127687748 - [2026 (undated, ~April)] A forecasting-model snapshot (Octagon AI) on the sibling question "Will the House vote on a resolution to expel Cory Mills" showed low probabilities for even a floor vote occurring, let alone passage: this prediction market has exhibited a completely flat and inactive trend since its inception. The probability of a House vote on a resolution to expel Cory Mills has remained static at 4.0%, showing no price movement whatsoever. (Note: this is a different market/question — about a vote occurring, not actual expulsion — and is distinct from this contract.) https://www.octagonai.co/markets/politics/congress/will-the-house-vote-on-a-resolution-to-expel-cory-mills BOTTOM LINE: The historical base rate for congressional expulsion is extremely low (20 expulsions in 237 years, none in the Senate since 1862, and only 3 House expulsions since the Civil War prior to 2023's Santos), and even the unusually active 2025-2026 wave of expulsion resolutions (Cherfilus-McCormick, Mills, Swalwell, Gonzales, Mace, McIver) has so far resolved via resignation, primary defeat, or committee referral rather than an actual two-thirds expulsion vote — suggesting the outside view strongly favors "No" despite elevated recent attention to the mechanism. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any completed expulsion vote (successful or failed) in the 119th Congress as of the latest available reporting (through August 2026); could not confirm whether the McIver, Mace, or any other pending expulsion resolutions have since been voted on or resolved closer to the October 2026 present date.

YES means: at least one sitting member of the U.S. House or Senate is formally expelled by a two-thirds floor vote before January 1, 2027. - [2026-04-20] The most direct live path to YES remains Rep. Nancy Mace's H.Res.1193, which seeks "Providing for the expulsion of Representative Cory Mills from the United States House of Representatives," introduced in the House on April 20, 2026 and referred to the Committee on Ethics , where it sits with no discharge yet attempted. - [2026-05-11] The House Ethics Committee confirmed its Investigative Subcommittee on Mills "has authorized more than 20 subpoenas, collected thousands of documents, and contacted dozens of witnesses" , indicating a substantive report — potentially recommending sanction up to expulsion — could still be finalized before year-end. - [2026-10-ongoing] A second, separate expulsion resolution remains technically alive: H.Res.439 against Rep. LaMonica McIver, introduced May 21, 2025 and referred to the Committee on Ethics , giving the House two pending vehicles (Mills, McIver) that could be called up at any time via privileged motion without further committee action, per House rules that let any member force a floor vote. - [2026-04-21] The closest the House has come to an actual expulsion this Congress was Rep. Cherfilus-McCormick, where Rep. Anna Paulina Luna said of the parallel Swalwell push: "I was ready to make that expulsion. I had it ready to go," and "his office contacted my office and let me know that his resignation would be coming in a few minutes before the deadline was for the expulsion [motion]." This shows vote-counters believed they already had the two-thirds majority needed — the only missing ingredient was the member not quitting first. - [2026-04-20] Ethics Committee findings have already cleared the threshold of "proven guilt" once this Congress: a House Ethics investigative subcommittee approved a motion for summary judgment, effectively finding Rep. Cherfilus-McCormick guilty on Counts 1-15 and 17-26 of the statement of alleged violations — demonstrating the committee process can and does reach expulsion-ready conclusions within months, not years. - [2026-04-20] Speaker Johnson has already publicly signaled support for expulsion once a committee finding exists: in the Cherfilus-McCormick case, "House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., signaled his support for the expulsion effort last week, citing 'alarming facts' identified " by the committee — meaning leadership resistance, the main brake on floor votes, can evaporate quickly once a report lands. - [2026-08-18] Mills's loss of his GOP primary on August 18, 2026 removes the main political incentive (protecting a colleague's re-election) that previously caused Republican leadership to stall the Mills expulsion push; Fox News notes Mace "led a failed bipartisan effort to censure Mills and threatened to push for his expulsion, though she later backed off the latter measure" — but as a lame-duck with no further election to lose, Mills is now a lower-cost target for colleagues who previously hesitated, and the Ethics Committee's report, if damning, could still trigger a vote before his term ends January 3, 2027. - [2026-10-ongoing] Historically, once the House Ethics Committee publicly finds "substantial reason to believe" or returns a guilty verdict, members have not survived to a final vote only because they resigned — not because the chamber lacked votes; this cluster of near-misses (Gonzales, Swalwell, Cherfilus-McCormick) within a single Congress is unprecedented and shows the House's practical willingness to expel is far higher than the 160-year Senate drought or rare pre-2023 House cases would suggest. - [2026-10-04] No reporting found of either Mills or McIver resigning, retiring, or being removed by other means since the August primary loss, meaning both expulsion vehicles remain technically open through the remainder of the 119th Congress's first session before the Jan 1, 2027 deadline. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is a Mills or McIver floor vote once the long-pending Ethics Committee report drops or a privileged motion is forced — a scenario made more plausible than usual because this Congress has repeatedly demonstrated (and Luna has explicitly stated) that a two-thirds majority to expel is achievable, with resignation, not lack of votes, being the only reason no expulsion has yet occurred. NOT FOUND: No confirmed date for the Mills Ethics Committee final report (last public update May 23, 2026 said "several more weeks," still unresolved as of October); no evidence any floor vote has been scheduled on H.Res.1193 or H.Res.439; no confirmation of McIver's case status since mid-2025.

YES means: at least one sitting member of the U.S. House or Senate is formally expelled by a two-thirds floor vote (or otherwise removed under the expulsion clause) at some point between now and January 1, 2027. - [2026-04-20] Mace's resolution to expel Cory Mills was explicitly filed as a non-privileged measure: "The measure is not privileged, though Mace could move to force a vote in the future." A non-privileged resolution can sit indefinitely without a floor vote unless the Rules Committee or leadership acts, which they have not done. (aol.com) - [2026-04-21] Even procedurally, the political arithmetic is daunting: "Expulsion from the House requires a two-thirds vote, a step Congress has used sparingly... The Ethics Committee's investigation into Mills remains ongoing, and neither expulsion resolution has been scheduled for a floor vote." (flvoicenews.com) - [2026-04-21] Speaker Johnson has deliberately declined to back either expulsion push, insisting the Ethics Committee finish first: "Speaker Johnson has not endorsed Mills's expulsion even as he backe" d the broader norm of waiting for committee findings — reinforcing leadership's gatekeeping role over any floor vote. (ussanews.com) - [2026-05-11] As of the committee's own public statement, the Mills investigative subcommittee was still mid-investigation, having issued subpoenas but not a final report: "On November 19, 2025, the Committee announced that it had established an Investigative Subcommittee (ISC)... These allegations are serious and complex and the ISC is devoting significant resources to the investigation. The ISC has authorized more than 20 subpoenas, collected thousands of documents, and contacted dozens of witnesses." No final report has been confirmed as released since. (ethics.house.gov) - [2026-08-18] Mills' own re-election fate removed one practical path to resolution without an expulsion vote: per GovTrack's record, "In August 2026, Mills lost his primary... Aug. 18, 2026 · Mills lost his primary." This gives leadership and colleagues even less incentive to force a divisive vote on a lame-duck member who will leave office automatically in January 2027 anyway. (govtrack.us) - [2026 (undated, Dec 2025 OCC referral)] A new, lower-profile ethics track was opened against Mace herself: the Office of Congressional Conduct's own investigations list shows "OCC Referral Regarding Rep. Nancy Mace... On December 1st, 2025, the Office of Congressional Conduct transmitted a referral to the Committee on Ethics of the United States House of Representatives regarding Rep. Nancy Mace." This mutual-investigation dynamic (Mace under OCC referral, Mills under Ethics Committee probe) gives each side reputational cover to let both resolutions quietly stall rather than force a vote that could backfire. (conduct.house.gov) - [2026 (historical chart, uploaded ~Aug 2026)] An official Ethics Committee chart of sexual-misconduct matters still listed Mills's case status as unresolved as of its most recent update: "Cory Mills (2025) Ongoing — Sexual misconduct and/or dating violence." No subsequent public report of closure has surfaced in later searches. (ethics.house.gov) - [2026 House calendar] The House's own 2026 floor schedule shows only a handful of session weeks left before January 1, 2027 — a short week after the Nov. 3 midterms and a December work period — compressing the window in which any privileged expulsion motion could realistically be forced to a vote even if someone tried. (majorityleader.gov, rollcall.com per Nov. 2025 calendar release) - [Pattern, through 2026] Every member who has faced a credible, imminent expulsion threshold this Congress (Gonzales, Swalwell, Cherfilus-McCormick) chose resignation over letting the chamber vote, and the one member who lost re-election (Mills) still did not face an actual floor vote — the chamber has a structural track record this cycle of routing around expulsion rather than completing it. BOTTOM LINE: No expulsion resolution in the 119th Congress has been made privileged, scheduled, or brought to a floor vote; the Ethics Committee's Mills probe remains unresolved with no public end date, Speaker Johnson continues to defer to that process, and Mills's primary loss further reduces the political urgency to force a vote before his term ends automatically in January 2027 — all pointing toward continued inertia and a NO resolution. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any expulsion resolution being made privileged or scheduled for a House or Senate floor vote as of October 2026; no confirmation that the Ethics Committee has issued a final report on Cory Mills; no indication of any new expulsion-threat case (beyond Mills/Mace) emerging since the August 2026 primary results.