Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.8 million TEUs?

- [2026-01-08] Port Authority monthly cargo data: January 2026 total volume was 749,906 TEUs, up 4.0% from 720,747 TEUs in January 2025. Source: portbreakingwaves.com/category/monthly-cargo-volumes/ - [2026-04-17] February total volume fell to 589,795 TEUs (−15.7% YoY) due to a three-day blizzard disrupting vessel calls; YTD through February was 1,339,701 TEUs. Source: portbreakingwaves.com/category/monthly-cargo-volumes/ - [2026-05-08] March volume rebounded to 837,993 TEUs (+6.9% YoY) as delayed vessels arrived, making the port the nation's busiest gateway that month; Q1 2026 total was 2.17 million TEUs, a 1.2 per cent decline compared with the same period in 2025 . Source: porttechnology.org - [2026-06-17] April volume normalized to 688,163 TEUs (−8.4% YoY); YTD through April reached 2,865,857 TEUs. Source: portbreakingwaves.com - [2026-07-15] May volume was 791,880 TEUs (+2.2% YoY); YTD through May reached 5,983,310 TEUs -trajectory baseline of 3,657,737 TEUs for Jan–May, essentially flat vs. 2025's 3,729,611 TEUs. Source: portbreakingwaves.com - [2026-08-19] Port Authority confirmed the Port of New York and New Jersey moved 4.4 million TEUs over the first six months of the year, on par with the same period of 2025 , with June's volume of 769,422 TEUs an 11.9 percent jump from June 2025 , bringing H1 total to 4,427,159 TEUs. Source: ajot.com - [2026-09-?] July volume came in at 766,276 TEUs, a 3.5% decline from 794,268 TEUs in July 2025, bringing the YTD-through-July total to 5,193,435 TEUs. Source: portbreakingwaves.com - [2026-09-25] Most recent official Port Authority report: August 2026 total volume was 789,875 TEUs (429,757 containers), down 5.5% from 835,845 TEUs (455,904 containers) in August 2025... bringing the year-through-August total to 5,983,310 TEUs (3,272,395 containers) , a 1.07% decrease over the same period of 2025. Source: portbreakingwaves.com - [2026-09-25] Cumulative imports through August were 3,025,601 TEUs, down 1.4% from 3,069,537 TEUs recorded in the same period of 2025 , while exports were 942,028 TEUs, a 2.1% decline from the 962,116 TEUs accrued in the same period of 2025 . Source: portbreakingwaves.com - [2026-09-09] Nationally, NRF/Hackett's Global Port Tracker reports September forecast at 2.31 million TEU, up 9.6% year over year and slightly ahead of July as the busiest month of the year , indicating a late, extended peak season across U.S. ports (not NY/NJ-specific, but suggests a stronger-than-expected September nationally). - [2026-09-09] The same Global Port Tracker forecasts cargo volume dropping to 2.11 million TEU in October (+1.7% YoY), November at 2 million TEU (−0.9%), and December at 2.03 million TEU (+1.1%) , implying modest Q4 growth nationally that could partly flow to NY/NJ. - [2026-04-17 (referencing prior year)] Full-year 2025 context: the Port handled 8.9 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), up 2.3 percent over 2025 and 4.3 percent over its forecast (figure describes calendar-year 2025 results as reported in an NJTPA blog). No official PANYNJ September 2026 monthly report has yet been published as of October 7, 2026 (next Breaking Waves post typically follows ~3-4 weeks after month-end, so a September release would be expected around late October). BOTTOM LINE: Through August 2026 the Port of NY/NJ's cumulative total is 5,983,310 TEUs, down about 1.1% year-over-year; extrapolating the same seasonal share of full-year volume that 2025's August YTD represented of its ~8.9M full-year total puts 2026 on a trajectory landing close to, and possibly just under or over, the 8.8 million TEU line — a genuine toss-up that July/August's renewed YoY declines (−3.5%, −5.5%) weigh against, while national port-wide data showing an unexpectedly strong, extended September/October peak season offer some upside risk. NOT FOUND: No official Port Authority (panynj.gov) monthly report for September 2026 TEUs was available as of this research (the interactive Facts and Figures page did not render tabular data); exact calendar-year 2025 full total (precise to the TEU) was not independently confirmed beyond the rounded "8.9 million" figure cited in secondary sources.

- [2026-09-25] Port Authority data show January–August 2026 total volume of 5,983,310 TEUs, a 1.07% decrease versus the same period in 2025. https://www.portbreakingwaves.com/total-volume-remains-steady-in-august-at-the-port-of-ny-nj/ - [2026-09-25] A total of 766,276 TEUs moved through the Port in July 2026, a modest 3.5% drop from the 794,268 TEUs recorded in July 2025, bringing the year-through-July total to 5,193,435 TEUs. https://www.portbreakingwaves.com/a-steady-july-for-cargo-volume-at-the-port-of-ny-nj/ - [2026-08-19] The Port of NY & NJ maintained a steady pace through the first half of 2026 after volumes surged in March; June volume rose 11.9% YOY to 769,422 TEUs, bringing YTD volume to 4.4 million TEUs. https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/the-port-of-new-york-and-new-jersey-overview - [2026-07-15] Port Authority monthly cargo reports show 3,657,737 loaded and empty TEUs crossed the docks between January and May 2026, down 1.9% from the 3,729,611 TEUs handled over the same five months of 2025. https://communitynews.org/sections/business-cns/port-ny-nj-container-volumes-2026/ - [2026-02-26] For calendar-year 2025, the Port of New York & New Jersey handled 8.9 million TEUs, an increase of 2.3% over the previous year, making it the port's third-busiest year on record, trailing 2021 and 2022. https://www.roi-nj.com/2026/02/26/industry/volume-at-port-of-new-york-and-new-jersey-rose-in-2025-despite-tariff-uncertainty/ - [2026-04-12] Exact 2025 final figure: 8,897,531 TEUs handled for 2025, with 652,471 (loaded and empty) TEUs in December 2025. https://www.portbreakingwaves.com/port-of-ny-and-nj-ends-2025-as-the-nations-second-busiest-port-for-loaded-containers/ - [2025 PANYNJ fact sheet] Prior-year reference class: 2021: 8,985,931 TEUs; 2022: 9,493,664 TEUs (+5.7%); 2023: 7,810,005 TEUs (-17.7%); 2024: 8,698,526 TEUs (+11.4%). https://www.panynj.gov/content/dam/port/our-port/PONYNJ_AtAGlance2024.pdf - [2026-02-26 report] 2025 actual outperformed the port's own internal forecast: the Port last year handled 8.9 million TEUs, up 2.3% over 2025 and 4.3% over its forecast. (Note: article appears to compare 2025 vs forecast, illustrating the port's own projections can be beaten.) https://njtpa.org/blog/port-of-ny-nj-volumes-continue-to-grow/ - [Projection from available YTD data] Extrapolating the Jan–Aug 2026 pace (-1.07% YoY) across the remaining four months of 2025's 2,850,136 TEU tail implies a full-year 2026 total landing very close to, and possibly just above or below, the 8.8M TEU line — the outcome is sensitive to whether the back half of 2026 tracks closer to July's -3.5% YoY swing or August's smaller -1.07% decline. - [Historical base rate] In the five most recent full calendar years (2021-2025), the port exceeded 8.8M TEUs in three years (2021, 2022, 2025) and fell short in two (2023, 2024), making an "above 8.8M" outcome roughly a coin-flip in the recent reference class, though the two "No" years were driven by distinct shocks (post-pandemic reversion in 2023, partial rebound in 2024). BOTTOM LINE: The reference class shows annual TEU totals at this port are historically volatile (ranging ~7.8M–9.5M over 2021-2025) and resolved above 8.8M in 3 of the last 5 years; 2026's YTD trend (down roughly 1-2% YoY through August) puts the projected full-year total right on the edge of the 8.8M threshold, making the outside view genuinely close to even odds rather than a confident Yes or No. NOT FOUND: No official Port Authority monthly report for September or October 2026 was found (most recent confirmed data point was August 2026, published 2026-09-25); no explicit port-authority internal 2026 full-year forecast figure was located.

YES means: the Port Authority's official cumulative "Total TEUs" figure for calendar year 2026 (January–December, as reported in Monthly Cargo Volumes → 2026 → YTD December → Total TEUs) comes in above 8.8 million TEUs. - [2026-09-25] Confirmed YTD-August 2026 total is 5,983,310 TEUs, down 1.07% vs. the same period of 2025, per the Port Authority's own Breaking Waves release. https://www.portbreakingwaves.com/total-volume-remains-steady-in-august-at-the-port-of-ny-nj/ - [2026-08-22] Back-solving from the official 2025 full-year total of 8,897,531 TEUs and the January–September 2025 total of 6,787,649 TEUs, the port's own historical data show Sept–Dec 2025 alone contributed 2,850,136 TEUs — meaning 2026 only needs to replicate that same absolute Sept–Dec tonnage (i.e., a roughly flat YoY finish, not growth) to land at 8,833,446 TEUs, above the 8.8M line. https://www.portbreakingwaves.com/rail-volume-continues-to-rise-in-september-at-the-port-of-ny-and-nj/ - [2026-09-25] Because the first eight months are only down 1.07% YoY, the break-even tolerance for the YES path is wide: Sept–Dec 2026 could decline by up to roughly 1.2% YoY and still clear 8.8M, a smaller shortfall than either of the last two reported months (July −3.5%, August −5.5%). https://www.portbreakingwaves.com/total-volume-remains-steady-in-august-at-the-port-of-ny-nj/ - [2026-09-09] Nationally, NRF/Hackett's Global Port Tracker reversed its own slowdown call and now projects September as the single busiest import month of 2026, up 9.6% YoY, "reversing a forecast made just two months ago that called for a 5.7 percent decline," evidence that 2026's peak season is unusually extended rather than fading. https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/september-peak-shipping-season-import-volumes-nrf-global-port-tracker-1239207519/ - [2026-08-19] NY/NJ's own June reading already showed this extended-peak pattern locally: June 2026 total volume jumped 11.9% YoY to 769,422 TEUs, which the Port Authority itself attributed to "an earlier, front-loaded peak shipping season, driven by changing federal trade policy," confirming the port is responsive to the same national demand surge. https://www.ajot.com/news/port-authority-of-new-york-and-new-jersey-reports-facility-volumes-for-first-half-of-2026 - [2026-10-06] A key downside risk for Q4 has been largely neutralized: the U.S.–China Section 301 port-fee truce, originally set to expire November 9, 2026, was verbally extended by Treasury Secretary Bessent to January 10, 2027, removing the threat of a sudden fee-driven disruption to Chinese-linked vessel calls during the critical autumn restocking window. https://advocacy.calchamber.com/2026/10/06/us-china-extend-trade-truce-but-port-fees-pending/ - [2026-09-09] Nationally, Global Port Tracker's post-September forecasts still show modest year-over-year growth continuing into Q4 — October +1.7%, December +1.1% — with only November dipping slightly (−0.9%), consistent with a Sept–Dec national trajectory close to flat-to-up rather than sharply down. https://mobile.visionmonday.com/business/research-and-stats/article/extended-import-peak-could-make-september-busiest-month-global-port-tracker-says/ - [2026-02-26] The port has a demonstrated recent history of outperforming its own internal projections: 2025's 8.9M TEU result beat the Port Authority's internal forecast "by 4.3 percent," indicating institutional forecasts for this port have recently been conservative relative to realized volume. https://njtpa.org/blog/port-of-ny-nj-volumes-continue-to-grow/ - [2025-10-30] In the comparable prior year, September alone (740,254 TEUs) and the following three months (Oct 727,059 + Nov 730,352 + Dec 652,471) show the port reliably moves 650,000–750,000+ TEUs per month in Q4, a baseline rate that, if simply sustained in nominal terms in 2026, is sufficient for a YES. https://www.portbreakingwaves.com/rail-volume-continues-to-rise-in-september-at-the-port-of-ny-and-nj/ BOTTOM LINE: The arithmetic bar for YES is low — NY/NJ needs only to roughly match (not grow over) 2025's Sept–Dec absolute TEU total to cross 8.8M for the year — and an unexpectedly resilient, extended national peak season (September +9.6% YoY, continued Q4 growth forecast) plus removal of the November 9 port-fee cliff both reduce the odds of the sharp declines seen in July/August repeating through year-end. NOT FOUND: No official Port Authority (panynj.gov or Breaking Waves) report for September or October 2026 TEUs has been published as of October 7, 2026; no NY/NJ-specific (vs. national) Global Port Tracker allocation for Q4 2026 was located.

YES means: the Port Authority's official "Total TEUs" figure (loaded + empty, import + export) for calendar year 2026 — the Monthly Cargo Volumes → 2026 → YTD December figure — exceeds 8.8 million TEUs when reported. This dimension argues for NO (full-year 2026 total ≤ 8.8 million TEUs). - [2026-09-25] The Port Authority's own primary source shows August 2026 volume of 789,875 TEUs (429,757 containers), down 5.5% from 835,845 TEUs (455,904 containers) in August 2025 , with the agency itself framing this as "a shift from the surge driven by importers trying to beat rising tariffs and fuel surcharges the previous year." https://www.portbreakingwaves.com/total-volume-remains-steady-in-august-at-the-port-of-ny-nj/ - [2026-09-25] The YoY decline rate has been accelerating into H2: July fell 3.5% YoY and August fell 5.5% YoY, worse than the roughly flat-to-1% declines seen January–June — a deteriorating trend line rather than stabilization heading into the back half of the year. https://www.portbreakingwaves.com/total-volume-remains-steady-in-august-at-the-port-of-ny-nj/ - [2025-12-08] A full year before this window, NRF/Hackett's Global Port Tracker had already set a bearish 2026 backdrop, warning "container shipping demand to the U.S. weakening significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025 and into early 2026" due to tariff volatility — the structural headwind behind 2026's softer trajectory relative to 2025's record pace. https://gcaptain.com/nrf-u-s-container-imports-face-prolonged-decline-in-2026/ - [2026-02-20] Even though the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA "Liberation Day" tariffs, the administration immediately replaced them with new duties (10%, later 15% Section 122 tariffs on all countries effective Feb 24, 2026) and "the Section 232 tariffs remain in place... cost US households $400 on average in 2026" — meaning the tariff drag on import demand that depressed 2026 volumes did not meaningfully lift even after the court ruling. https://taxfoundation.org/blog/supreme-court-trump-tariffs-ruling/ - [2026-02-09] NRF explicitly forecast "Following essentially flat container import volumes in 2025 compared with 2024, we expect a decline during the first half of 2026 and likely longer" — a prolonged-decline thesis that is broadly consistent with the actual sub-1% YTD-August NY/NJ shortfall. https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-volume-expected-to-see-year-over-year-drop-during-first-half-of-2026 - [2026-09-?] Even the late-breaking "stronger than expected" national peak season narrative is a national, not NY/NJ-specific signal; it is driven partly by West Coast/Panama Canal drought diversions rather than East Coast gains, and the Los Angeles-specific commentary in the same report only claims "the gateway expects to exceed 900,000 TEUs total in September... amount to a 1.9 percent increase from the prior year's 883,053 TEUs" — a modest uplift concentrated on the West Coast, not evidence of a NY/NJ rebound. https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/september-peak-shipping-season-import-volumes-nrf-global-port-tracker-1239207519/ - [2026-09-17] Separately, Descartes-style import data showed a broad U.S. import rebound in August, but even that report flags "notable because it reversed July-to-August declines recorded in both 2024 and 2025" amid continuing tariff exposure and Red Sea/Panama disruption — underscoring that any import uptick is fragile and import-only, while the Port Authority's own official Total TEU metric (which includes empties, the actual resolution metric) still fell 5.5% YoY in the same month. https://dredgewire.com/u-s-container-imports-climb-3-8-to-2-6-million-teus-3rd-highest-monthly-level/ - [Arithmetic] Using the Port Authority's own confirmed 2025 full-year total of 8,897,531 TEUs and the YTD-August 2026 total of 5,983,310 TEUs (down 1.07% YoY), if the remaining four months of 2026 track the accelerating H2 decline rate seen in July (-3.5%) and August (-5.5%) rather than the milder H1 pace, full-year 2026 would land several tenths of a percentage point to a few percentage points below the 8.8M mark — on the bearish side of the line rather than comfortably above it. - [Status quo / base rate] The port has missed the 8.8M mark in 2 of the last 5 calendar years (2023: 7.81M; 2024: 8.70M), both during periods of post-pandemic demand normalization and tariff-driven import caution — conditions that closely resemble 2026's backdrop of persistent tariff uncertainty (Section 122/232/301 regimes layered on after the IEEPA ruling) and a weakening H2 YoY trend, arguing that "nothing changing" (i.e., the current softening trajectory persisting) resolves this market NO. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case rests on the Port Authority's own August 2026 report showing an accelerating year-over-year decline (July -3.5%, August -5.5%) against a persistent tariff-driven demand backdrop that NRF/Hackett had been warning about since December 2025, and on the fact that any recent "strong peak season" narrative is national and West Coast-centric rather than a confirmed NY/NJ rebound — collectively pointing toward a full-year total landing at or below the 8.8 million TEU threshold. NOT FOUND: No official Port Authority (panynj.gov) monthly report for September or October 2026 has been published as of this writing; no NY/NJ-specific Q4 2026 volume forecast from the Port Authority or an independent analyst was located; exact Descartes/Global Port Tracker NY/NJ-specific (rather than national) September-December 2026 projections were not found.