Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

- [2026-08-14] Tropical Storm Lala approached the Big Island threatening to become the "first United States hurricane landfall of 2026," with winds near 60 mph and intensification expected. [Artemis: https://www.artemis.bm/news/lala-takes-aim-at-hawaii-could-become-first-us-hurricane-landfall-of-2026/] - [2026-08-15] NASA imagery shows Hurricane Lala narrowly avoided a direct landfall on the Island of Hawaiʻi in mid-August 2026, instead passing just south of the island on August 15 as a category 1 storm. https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/lala-batters-hawaii/ - [2026-09-04 to 09-06] Hurricane Lowell bore down on Hawaii's western islands as a Category 4 (fluctuating to Category 5) hurricane, prompting a state of emergency, the third storm threat in as many weeks. https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/04/weather/hurricane-lowell-hawaii-storm-path-climate - [2026-09-10] Per NHC advisory archive, Lowell was declared post-tropical and routine advisories ended, with its center having remained offshore west of the main islands (a Hurricane Warning covered Kauaʻi County, but no confirmed hurricane-force center landfall). https://www.hawaii-guide.com/blog/hurricane-season-in-hawaii - [2026-09-23/25] Hurricane Nolo intensified south of the Big Island; Hawaii Governor Josh Green declared a state of emergency, the third storm-related emergency declaration this month, in anticipation of the storm's impacts , with Nolo's center forecast to approach within 100 miles but not make landfall. https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/23/weather/el-nino-hurricane-polo-hawaii-storm-nolo-climate - [2026-09-29] CPHC Advisory 37A placed Nolo at Category 1 (90 mph), "tracking well clear of the main Hawaiian Islands," with no watches/warnings in effect for any populated island; threat to the main chain assessed as passed. https://howtoliveinhawaii.com/hawaii-hurricane-season/ - [2026-10-03] Nolo re-strengthened to Category 3 far west of Kauaʻi, moving away from the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, with the tropical storm warning for Papahanaumokuakea canceled . https://staradvertiser.com/2026/10/03/breaking-news/nolo-grows-to-major-hurricane-again-near-northwestern-hawaiian-islands - [2026-10-02] Reporting states no NOAA post-storm report since Hurricane Iniki (1992) describes a confirmed hurricane landfall or eyewall crossing on Hawaiian land, and that this status held through early October 2026 (Lala and Lowell both classified as "offshore center" impacts, not landfalls). https://www.hawaii-guide.com/blog/hurricane-season-in-hawaii - [2026-10-06] NHC/CPHC Tropical Weather Outlook (800 AM HST): the National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Rachel near Baja California; tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days in the Central Pacific. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac - [2026-10-07] CPHC's latest Tropical Weather Outlook (800 AM HST) states explicitly: "There are no tropical cyclones at this time," with the tracker confirming no tropical cyclones as of Wed, 07 Oct 2026. https://www.stormdom.com/centralpacific/tracker.php - [2026-10-07] NHC/CPHC's official 2026 Central Pacific season tracker shows season ACE of 31.5 and a storm list through the current date, with no entry reflecting a Hawaii hurricane-strength landfall. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2026&basin=cpac - [2026-10-05] Big Island forecast discussion describes only a weak disturbance and a developing moisture surge bringing heavy rain risk, not a tropical cyclone threat, through the coming week. https://bigislandnow.com/2026/10/04/hawaii-county-weather-forecast-for-october-05-2026 BOTTOM LINE: An unusually active, El Niño-fueled 2026 Central Pacific season has produced three hurricanes (Lala, Lowell, Nolo) that each threatened Hawaii with watches/warnings and emergency declarations, but all three kept their surface centers offshore of the main islands — so no qualifying Category-1-or-higher landfall has occurred as of 2026-10-07, and CPHC's live outlook shows no active storms or new development expected in the Central Pacific through at least mid-October, leaving roughly seven weeks of season (through Nov 30) and the Dec 31 market close for a new storm to form and make landfall. NOT FOUND: An official NHC/CPHC post-storm Tropical Cyclone Report (TCR) for Lala or Lowell confirming final best-track landfall classification; any CPHC advisory text literally declaring "landfall" for any 2026 storm; news from after 2026-10-07 on any new disturbance development.

- [2026-10-07 reference] Historically, confirmed hurricane-strength (Cat 1+) landfalls in Hawaii are extremely rare: dating to 1950, Dot made landfall the next day on Kauai as a minimal hurricane before dissipating west of the Hawaiian Islands on August 8 (1959), and Hurricane Iniki made landfall on Kauai as a Category 4 in 1992, described as the first hurricane to hit the state since Hurricane Iwa in 1982, and the only known major hurricane to hit the state . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Iniki - [2026-09-03] A prior ForecastEx market analysis noted that in the historical record from 1949 to 2025, such an event has happened only once, with Hurricane Iniki in 1992... a 1.3% annual chance for a major (Cat 3+) hurricane landfall, implying the all-category (Cat1+) base rate is only modestly higher (roughly 2 landfalls in ~76 years, ~2-3%/yr climatologically). https://ibkrcampus.com/campus/traders-insight/prediction-market/a-major-hurricane-landfall-in-hawaii/ - [2022-07-12] Most Hawaii tropical cyclone encounters weaken to tropical storm strength before landfall because of cooler surrounding waters and unfavorable geography; dating to 1950, there is no record of a hurricane landfalling on the Big Island of Hawaii prior to 2026 (only tropical storms Iselle 2014, and one in 1958, had landed there). https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2022-07-12-hawaii-hurricanes-tropical-storms-history - [2026 season, ongoing] This base rate has been dramatically overturned in-season: Wikipedia's tracking page states Hurricane Lala became the first hurricane to directly hit the Big Island of Hawaii since 1871 while also becoming Hawaii's third-wettest tropical cyclone on record (August 2026), and in September, Lowell became the second Category 5 hurricane of the season and the first hurricane to directly impact Kauaʻi County since Hurricane Iniki in 1992 . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Pacific_hurricane_season - [2026-05-21] NOAA's seasonal outlook explicitly flagged 2026 as unusually conducive to activity: NOAA's National Weather Service is forecasting an active 2026 Central Pacific hurricane season. There is a 70% chance of an above-normal season, with 5 to 13 total tropical cyclones expected , driven by expected El Niño conditions , versus a historical average of 4-5 storms. https://westoahu.hawaii.edu/makahaiwaa/prepare-for-hurricane-season-forecasters-predict-active-2026/ - [2026-10-04] As of early October, Hurricane Nolo (a third hurricane to threaten the islands this season) tracked west, remaining well south/southwest of the main islands and threatening only the remote, uninhabited Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument rather than the main islands, with 115 mph maximum sustained winds and was centered 200 miles south-southwest of Lisianski Island...moving west at 20 mph , away from Hawaii. https://www.staradvertiser.com/2026/10/03/breaking-news/nolo-grows-to-major-hurricane-again-near-northwestern-hawaiian-islands/ - [1959-2026 reference class] No more than two hurricane-strength systems have historically struck Hawaii's main islands in any season; 2026 has already seen two distinct hurricane impacts (Lala, Lowell) on the main islands plus a third hurricane (Nolo) affecting only the remote NW islands, an unprecedented clustering versus the 1992 record of no more than two tropical systems have ever affected the islands in any previous hurricane season. In 1992, Hurricane Iniki and Tropical Depression Orlene both officially made landfall in the state within three days of each other . https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/how-rare-are-hurricanes-in-hawaii-examining-the-aloha-states-history-with-hurricanes/781325 - [2026-09-20] Independent market-commentary trackers (prediction.com) reported a gap between reported landfalls and lagging market pricing: The Atlantic confirms two hurricane strikes on Hawaii this year. The prediction market implies an 86% chance it hasn't happened, with Kalshi at 11% and Polymarket at 16% , attributing the gap to possible resolution-timing/verification lag rather than genuine doubt about the meteorological facts. https://prediction.com/news/hawaii-hit-by-two-hurricanes-in-2026-market-sep-20-2026 - [2026-09] This same commentary noted market movement reflecting the news: the contract moved from a period low of 6% to 14% over three days, an 8-percentage-point jump that shows the news has reached at least some traders , but prices had not fully converged to reflect an apparently already-resolved event. https://prediction.com/news/hawaii-hit-by-two-hurricanes-in-2026-market-sep-20-2026 - [sibling market] A related Kalshi contract ("Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii this year?", resolving before Jan 1 2027) was observed trading near Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii this year?... Yes 13.4 x 7%... No 1.05 x 93% in one snapshot, though another, differently-dated snapshot of a similarly named Kalshi page showed "0% chance," indicating inconsistent/stale market data across sources. https://kalshi.com/category/climate/hurricanes BOTTOM LINE: The long-run base rate for a Cat-1+ hurricane landfall in Hawaii is very low (roughly 2 confirmed events, Dot 1959 and Iniki 1992, in ~76 years of record, ~2-3%/yr climatologically), but 2026 is already a historic outlier season in which independent reporting (Wikipedia's storm tracker, AP, Star-Advertiser, The Atlantic) describes Hurricane Lala hitting the Big Island and Hurricane Lowell directly impacting Kauaʻi County at hurricane strength, which if confirmed by official CPHC advisories would mean the base-rate question is effectively moot for 2026 since the event has reportedly already occurred. NOT FOUND: An official, dated Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisory explicitly confirming Lala's or Lowell's landfall wind speed/category at the moment of coastline intersection (needed to verify against this contract's strict Cat-1+-at-landfall resolution criteria); I could not independently verify these claims on nhc.noaa.gov/cphc beyond the Wikipedia/secondary-source descriptions.

YES means: a tropical cyclone's surface center crosses onto Hawaii state land/coastline while CPHC-classified at Category 1 strength or higher, at any point between 2026-07-24 and 2026-12-31 11:59:59 PM ET, as reflected in an official CPHC advisory (including any later correction). - [2026-08-15, 500 PM HST] CPHC's official Hurricane Lala Advisory Number 15 stated the storm's eyewall was "BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BIG ISLAND," with the center located "ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SW OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII" and maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (Category 1), while the discussion noted "Some erratic motion remains possible into tonight while Lala interacts with the Big Island of Hawaii." https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP2+shtml/152356.shtml - [2026-08-15, 800 PM HST] CPHC Intermediate Advisory 15A placed Lala's center just 55 miles west of South Point while still Category 1 strength, with the hazards section stating "Hurricane conditions will persist on the Big Island of Hawaii overnight, with the strongest winds expected in areas of higher terrain," and gusts over sloped terrain can run "up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory." https://nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/cp01/cp012026.public_a.015.shtml?text= - [2026-08-15, 400 PM HST local coverage] A CPHC/NHC-sourced advisory snippet described Lala as "moving toward a direct hit near South Point" while classified as a Category 1 hurricane, i.e., the storm's track at closest approach ran directly across the island's southern tip within the position-estimate uncertainty radius typical of these advisories. https://www.staradvertiser.com/2026/08/15/breaking-news/lala-lashing-hawaii-island-landfall-as-a-hurricane-possible-later-today/ - [2026-08, post-event] Wikipedia's tracking page — compiling official advisory and post-storm data — states unambiguously that "Hurricane Lala became the first hurricane to directly hit the Big Island of Hawaii since 1871 while also becoming Hawaii's third-wettest tropical cyclone on record." This describes a direct hit, not merely an offshore pass, diverging from the more cautious "brushed/passed south" framing used by some contemporaneous news stories. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Pacific_hurricane_season - [2026-09] The same source states "In September, Lowell became the second Category 5 hurricane of the season and the first hurricane to directly impact Kauaʻi County since Hurricane Iniki in 1992," a second independent claim of a direct hurricane-strength impact on inhabited Hawaiian land this season, raising the odds that at least one of these events meets the Cat-1+-at-coastline-crossing bar once CPHC issues final Tropical Cyclone Reports. - [2026 season, structural point] The market's own resolution text explicitly provides a path to a late YES flip: it states the market "may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall... However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to 'Yes' based on that correction" — meaning Lala's or Lowell's eventual NHC Tropical Cyclone Report (TCRs for CP storms are typically finalized weeks to months after season's end, i.e., plausibly before Dec 31) could still reclassify either storm's track as a qualifying landfall even though real-time advisories only described "brushing" or "interacting with" the islands. - [2026-08-14] Before the event, Artemis reported forecasters and modelers (Twelve Securis) already flagged that "Lala is current forecast to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend as a weak Category 1 hurricane, although a direct landfall along the southern coast of Hawaii's Big Island remains possible," underscoring that the forecast-track uncertainty cone (tens of miles) left the landfall/no-landfall outcome genuinely undetermined in real time — exactly the kind of case where post-season best-track reanalysis can tip a near-miss into a confirmed landfall. - [2026-10, season status] CPHC's own seasonal tracker shows 2026 Central Pacific ACE at 31.5 with the season still open through November 30 (hurricane season) and the market open through December 31; an unusually active, El Niño-fueled year that has already produced three hurricanes threatening the main islands (Lala, Lowell, Nolo) leaves a materially elevated (above-climatology) chance that a fourth system forms and tracks directly over an island before year-end, which is the clearest "new landfall" path to YES independent of any Lala/Lowell reclassification. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2026&basin=cpac BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case rests on two independent mechanisms: (1) official CPHC advisory language for Lala ("brushing," "interacts with," center only 30–55 miles from South Point while Category 1) leaves genuine track-uncertainty room for a post-season Tropical Cyclone Report to reclassify it (or Lowell, which Wikipedia already says "directly impacted" Kauaʻi County) as a qualifying landfall under the contract's explicit correction clause; and (2) an unprecedented, El Niño-driven active season with three hurricane threats already logged leaves real residual probability of a new, cleanly-qualifying landfall before the Dec 31 close. NOT FOUND: Any official NHC/CPHC post-storm Tropical Cyclone Report (TCR) for Lala or Lowell (these are typically not published until months after the storm, and none was found as of 2026-10-07); any CPHC advisory text that uses the literal word "landfall" in confirming (rather than forecasting) a coastline crossing for any 2026 storm.

YES means: a tropical cyclone's surface center crosses onto Hawaii's coastline (any island, including NW Hawaiian Islands) while sustained winds are ≥74 mph, per a CPHC advisory, at any point between market creation (2026-07-24) and 2026-12-31 11:59:59 PM ET. - [2026-10-02] A Hawaii travel-industry tracker updated as of this date states plainly that NWS Honolulu says Lala's center moved past the southern tip of the Big Island without crossing land, meaning Lala was not a hurricane landfall, and Iniki's 1992 crossing of Kauaʻi remains Hawaii's most recent hurricane landfall — directly rebutting Wikipedia's "directly hit" framing with an NWS-sourced determination. - [2026-08-15, 8PM HST] The official NHC/CPHC archived advisory text for Lala (Intermediate Advisory 15A) places the storm's center ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII while LALA REMAINS A HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND — i.e., the center was offshore, not crossing the coast, at its closest hurricane-strength approach. - [2026-08-?] AP/PBS reporting on Lala's aftermath states Hurricane Lala weakened to a tropical storm on Sunday after its eyewall skirted Hawaii without making landfall , corroborating the no-landfall determination from an independent wire source. - [2026-10-02] The same tracker notes the stricter eyewall-crossing standard has also not been met: Other tropical cyclones have made landfall since Iniki, but at tropical-storm strength , and explicitly states no post-Iniki storm has produced a confirmed hurricane-strength eyewall crossing, let alone a center landfall. - [2026-09-08] Official CPHC reporting on Lowell's closest approach to Kauaʻi placed the center of Hurricane Lowell...located about 145 miles northwest of Lihue and 245 miles northwest of Honolulu, packing maximum sustained winds near 90 mph , confirming Lowell's center never approached the coastline, let alone crossed it, at hurricane strength. - [2026-09-05] CPHC's own forecast language for Lowell described its track as passing by, not over, the islands: On the forecast track, the center of Lowell will move across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, just to the west of the main Hawaiian Islands — the storm's realized track (145+ miles offshore) was even farther from a landfall than this forecast. - [2026-10-04] AP's final wire report on Nolo states unambiguously that Nolo skirted Hawaii as a hurricane a week ago , using "skirted" rather than any landfall language, before Nolo moved away, re-intensified far offshore, and crossed the International Date Line to become Typhoon Nolo, exiting CPHC's area of responsibility entirely. - [2026-10-06] CPHC's official Tropical Weather Outlook confirms the basin is currently quiet: Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español) 800 AM HST Tue Oct 06 2026 - There are no tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific at this time , with no new development flagged in the 7-day window. - [2026-10-05] A wire weather roundup notes broader Pacific/El Niño dynamics are not currently favoring new imminent threats to Hawaii, observing only that with the expected super-strong El Nino, the overall circulation may not switch to the much wetter side until November or December , suggesting any renewed threat window is compressed into the season's final weeks. - [2026-05-21/2026-10-07 reference] NOAA's own seasonal framing cautions against reading basin-activity forecasts as landfall predictions: NOAA's Hurricane Season Outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching land — an active season (3 hurricanes threatening, 0 landfalls) is consistent with the climatological pattern of Hawaii's cooler surrounding waters and terrain repeatedly deflecting or weakening storms before coastal crossing, as has now happened three separate times in one season. - [status-quo mechanism] With Central Pacific hurricane season formally ending November 30 and the market close December 31, any qualifying event must now come from a new, not-yet-formed storm; three consecutive hurricane threats (Lala, Lowell, Nolo) each independently failed to produce a qualifying center landfall despite favorable (El Niño-enhanced) conditions, suggesting a structural pattern — Hawaii's small landmass and the storms' tendency to recurve or weaken near the islands — rather than random bad luck, which should lower (not raise) the expected probability of the fourth attempt succeeding. BOTTOM LINE: Three hurricane-strength systems (Lala, Lowell, Nolo) directly threatened Hawaii in 2026 with warnings and emergency declarations, but official NHC/CPHC advisory text and AP wire reporting confirm all three kept their surface centers offshore — Lala by ~55 miles at its closest hurricane-strength pass, Lowell by ~145 miles, and Nolo by over 100 miles before crossing into the Western Pacific — so no qualifying Cat-1+ landfall has occurred, and with the formal season ending Nov 30 and the basin currently devoid of cyclones, the path to YES requires an entirely new storm to form, intensify, and buck the season's established three-for-three offshore-track pattern. NOT FOUND: Any CPHC advisory using the word "landfall" for Lala, Lowell, or Nolo; an official NHC post-storm Tropical Cyclone Report (TCR) finalizing landfall/intensity classification for Lala or Lowell (still marked "preliminary operational" per hawaii-guide.com); any news after 2026-10-07 of new tropical development in the Central Pacific.