Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

- [2024-04-20] The 2024 reauthorization law (RISAA, Public Law 118-49) set a two-year sunset for FISA Title VII/Section 702, due to expire in April 2026. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/section-702-foreign-intelligence-surveillance-act-fisa-2026-resource-page - [2026-04-17] As the April 2026 sunset approached with no consensus, Congress passed a short clean extension; with no consensus as of April 17, Congress passed an extension that keeps Section 702 in place until April 30, 2026, while negotiations continue on potential revisions to the law. - [2026-04-29] The House voted 235-191 to extend the critical spy program, known as Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), which expires this week , a three-year reauthorization (S.1318) that included an unrelated CBDC ban, which stalled in the Senate. - [2026-04-30] Unable to pass the three-year bill, the House and Senate on Thursday passed a 45-day extension of Section 702, setting up further debate when the House and Senate return from a pre-planned recess in mid-May . - [2026-06-05] Negotiations were further disrupted after President Trump disrupted already fragile negotiations for a long-term renewal of Section 702 by tapping housing official Bill Pulte to be acting director of national intelligence; Democrats all but cut off the FISA Section 702 negotiations, making it clear they wouldn't vote to reauthorize that power if placed in Pulte's hands . - [2026-06-11] A short-term extension failed in the House; the U.S. House failed to extend Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), all but ensuring the law will lapse on Friday night for the first time since its passage in 2008 . - [2026-06-12] Section 702/Title VII formally lapsed; the CRS notes this provision was automatically repealed on June 12, 2026, pursuant to the FISA Amendment Act of 2008, as amended by Public Law 119-87, and all of Title VII of FISA was repealed by this provision, including Sections 702-705 . - [2026-06-12] Despite the statutory lapse, surveillance activity continues under existing court orders: the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court has already recertified Section 702 surveillance through March 2027, and that certification remains operational even after the statute sunsets . - [2026-06-15] No deal was reached; after failing to come to an agreement, FISA's Section 702 has lapsed, and lawmakers are continuing to negotiate reauthorization . - [2026-06-23] As of mid-June reporting, the House was not expected to vote again until June 23 , and several competing reform bills remained pending, including the Government Surveillance Reform Act of 2026 (GSRA); the Security and Freedom Enhancement Act of 2026 (SAFE Act); and the Protect Liberty and End Warrantless Surveillance Act of 2026 (Protect Liberty Act) . - [2026-09-17] The Brennan Center's updated resource page shows no enacted reauthorization since the June lapse, and it published a one-pager explicitly titled "Section 702 Surveillance Authority Will Not Lapse if Reauthorized by March 2027," a summary which states it is "debunking the claim that Congress must renew Section 702 by November 2026 to avoid a lapse in surveillance authority." - [2026-09-17] As of this update, outstanding Senate bills on Congress.gov remain stalled at the introduced/placed-on-calendar stage: S.4342 (18-month extension, introduced 04/16/2026) and S.4344 (3-year extension) were Placed on Calendar Senate (04/20/2026) with S.4344's latest action being Senate - 05/13/2026 Cloture motion on the motion to proceed withdrawn by unanimous consent in Senate , with no further floor action reported since. - [2026-10-07] No source found reporting that any FISA Section 702/Title VII reauthorization bill has passed both chambers or been signed into law since the June 12, 2026 lapse; H.R. 8035 (the House's earlier straight extension vehicle) remains introduced/stalled, and no subsequent bill has cleared both chambers as of the report date. BOTTOM LINE: Section 702/Title VII formally lapsed on June 12, 2026 after repeated short-term extensions and a failed House vote, and as of mid-to-late September 2026 (the most recent dated evidence found) no reauthorization bill has passed both chambers or been signed into law; commentary instead focuses on the fact that underlying surveillance can continue under existing FISC orders until March 2027, reducing legislative urgency and making a 2026 enactment uncertain absent a breakthrough in Senate/House negotiations before December 31, 2026. NOT FOUND: Direct access to the Congress.gov tracker page for H.R.22 (119th Congress) was blocked; no news item dated after September 22, 2026 (i.e., within the last two weeks) reporting any floor votes, markups, or signature on a Section 702 reauthorization bill could be located.

- [2008-2024] Reference class: Section 702 has been reauthorized multiple times since enactment in 2008 (2012, 2018, 2024), and previous reauthorization cycles had exceeded five years, but House Speaker Mike Johnson shortened the window to two years to secure more votes for RISAA, which reauthorized Section 702 in late April 2024 . In every prior cycle Congress ultimately passed reauthorization, often narrowly and near/after the deadline — a 100% historical "eventually passes" rate, but with increasing friction each cycle. - [2024-04-20] Most recent precedent (same reference class as this contract's qualifying law, P.L. 118-49): the Senate voted 60-34 to reauthorize Section 702 for two more years, with senators missing the midnight deadline but voting to reauthorize minutes later , showing Congress has previously let the clock expire by mere minutes before acting, but did act. - [2026-04-20] This cycle's statutory deadline: the last time Congress reauthorized Section 702 was on April 20, 2024, via RISAA, which provides that the section will sunset on April 20, 2026 . Unlike 2024, this deadline passed with a series of short patches rather than a resolution. - [2026-04-30] Congress used short-term patches rather than a full deal: on April 30, 2026, the Senate and House both passed a new 45-day clean extension of FISA Section 702 to continue negotiations through June 12, with the Senate passing by unanimous consent and the House by a 261-111 vote . - [2026-06-12] The extension process broke down for the first time in the statute's history: in a 218-to-198 vote, the House rejected a short-term extension of Section 702, and Senate Democrats blocked a parallel effort hours later; Speaker Mike Johnson called the lapse "dangerous, and very, very shameful" . This marked the first time Congress has allowed Section 702 of FISA to lapse since the law passed in 2008. - [2026-06-15] After the lapse, negotiations continued without resolution: "After failing to come to an agreement, FISA's Section 702 has lapsed. Lawmakers are continuing to negotiate reauthorization." - [2026-06-05] A key reason for the breakdown was a controversy over the Director of National Intelligence appointment: Trump disrupted already fragile negotiations by tapping housing official Bill Pulte, a Trump ally with no intelligence background, to be acting DNI; Democrats all but cut off the FISA Section 702 negotiations, making clear they wouldn't vote to reauthorize that power if placed in Pulte's hands . - [2026-09-17] The lapse has reduced urgency because surveillance continues regardless of statutory status: a Brennan Center resource notes "Section 702 Surveillance Authority Will Not Lapse if Reauthorized by March 2027" , and separately that the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court renewed the program's annual certifications in March 2026, and those certifications run through approximately March 2027 — removing the usual "ticking clock" pressure that forced past deals. - [2026-09-15] As of mid-September, the administration continues to push for reauthorization but no deal has passed: Senator Cornyn asked FBI Director Kash Patel whether he still believes it's important for Congress to reauthorize Section 702, and Patel said "Were that to go dark, we would have a lot of problems, or we would have no ability to trace that information" — indicating the issue remains unresolved and salient at the committee level nearly five months after lapse. - [2025-11-11] Pre-lapse forecasting context: Lawfare noted "Nobody is saying much about plans in Washington to take up reauthorization of Section 702... with only half a year before it is set to expire, the clock is ticking once again and the sounds of silence are getting louder," reflecting expert skepticism about smooth passage even before the lapse occurred. - [2026 ongoing] Academic/expert outside view: a CERL analysis published before this cycle began warned "In the aftermath of past reauthorization cycles, the outcome of the next debate over continuing Section 702 was often predictable. However, the narrow votes approving 702's most recent renewal in both chambers of Congress suggest that 702's reauthorization in its current form in 2026 is far from assured." This prediction proved accurate — the 2026 cycle broke the historical pattern of eventual passage before/at deadline. BOTTOM LINE: The historical base rate for Section 702 reauthorization "eventually passing" is 100% across prior cycles (2012, 2018, 2024), but each cycle has gotten more contentious, and the 2026 cycle is unprecedented: for the first time since 2008 Congress allowed the authority to lapse (June 12, 2026) without passing replacement legislation, and as of October 2026 no deal has passed either chamber in final form. Because FISC certifications already extend surveillance in practice through ~March 2027, the normal "must-pass" urgency is gone, reducing — not increasing — the pressure for Congress to act by the contract's December 31, 2026 deadline, making the outside view notably more pessimistic than prior cycles would suggest. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any House or Senate floor vote scheduled or held between July and October 2026 on a full two-year (or any) 702 reauthorization bill; no confirmation of H.R. 22's specific legislative history/status on Congress.gov (page access blocked); no named whip count or explicit probability estimate from a forecasting outlet (e.g., Polymarket's own historical pricing, which is excluded per instructions) for passage by Dec 31, 2026.

YES means: Legislation reauthorizing FISA Title VII/Section 702 for two years passes both chambers of Congress and is signed into law (or otherwise enacted per the resolution's veto-override/pocket-veto rules) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - [2026-09-01] The FY2027 NDAA (H.R. 8800/S. 4784) remains an active, moving "must-pass" legislative vehicle, with a CRS tracker confirming ongoing status updates as of September 1, 2026 — the same type of vehicle onto which Section 702 extensions have historically been attached. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12704 - [2025-12-18] Base-rate precedent for timing: the FY2026 NDAA was passed by the House (Dec. 10, 2025) and Senate (Dec. 17, 2025) and signed into law by President Trump on December 18, 2025, showing the NDAA reliably reaches the President's desk in mid-to-late December each year — a plausible December 2026 landing spot for a 702 rider. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Defense_Authorization_Act_for_Fiscal_Year_2026 - [2023-12-13] Direct historical precedent for this exact mechanism: the FY2024 NDAA included a Section 702 extension (passed House 310-118) after Congress attached the surveillance extension to the defense bill rather than pass standalone legislation — the same maneuver could reprise in December 2026. https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/aclu-slams-congress-for-ndaa-vote-extending-mass-surveillance-program-with-no-reforms - [2026-09-15] Continued high-level bipartisan engagement: Senate Judiciary Chairman John Cornyn directly questioned FBI Director Kash Patel on September 15, 2026 about the need to reauthorize Section 702, with Patel responding, "Were that to go dark, we would have a lot of problems, or we would have no ability to trace that information," indicating the administration is still actively lobbying Congress to act, not treating the issue as dead. - [2026-09-17] The Brennan Center's 2026 resource page lists a July 29, 2026 coalition letter urging Congress to enact safeguards "regardless of who serves as Director of National Intelligence" — evidence that advocacy groups were already working to decouple the Pulte-DNI dispute (the stated reason Democrats froze talks) from the substantive reauthorization debate, opening a path to compromise. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/section-702-foreign-intelligence-surveillance-act-fisa-2026-resource-page - [2026-06-08] Senate Judiciary Chairman Grassley's floor speech blamed Democrats for blocking "a deal" and argued "walking away from this deal isn't hurting President Trump – it's hurting the American people," language indicating that as of the lapse, a negotiated package (not merely a clean extension) was reportedly close to agreement before collapsing over the DNI appointment — meaning the substantive gap may be narrower than a full policy impasse. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/rep/releases/grassley-letting-fisa-section-702-lapse-is-a-gamble-we-cant-afford-to-take - [2026-06-09] Senate Judiciary Ranking Member Durbin, while criticizing GOP leadership, stated Democrats' position is conditional rather than absolute refusal: "if my colleagues want to reauthorize Section 702 quickly, there is a simple solution… support these commonsense, bipartisan reforms supported by a majority of Americans," suggesting a reform-for-reauthorization trade remains on the table rather than permanent blockage. - [2008-2026] Every prior Section 702 sunset cycle (2012, 2017-2018, 2023-2024) has ultimately ended in enactment, often via a must-pass vehicle like the NDAA or a last-minute vote; Congress has a perfect record of eventually reauthorizing 702 when forced to choose between lapse and a deal, and the FY2027 NDAA gives it a familiar vehicle to do so again before the December 31, 2026 deadline. BOTTOM LINE: The single most plausible path to YES is Congress attaching a two-year Section 702 reauthorization (mirroring the qualifying P.L. 118-49 template) to the FY2027 NDAA, exactly as it did with the FY2024 NDAA — a bill that is already far along and has a strong institutional track record of reaching the President's desk in mid-to-late December; continued high-profile committee engagement (Cornyn-Patel exchange, Grassley/Durbin floor statements) shows the issue remains live and bipartisan dealmaking has not been abandoned. NOT FOUND: No confirmed report that FISA Section 702 language has actually been inserted into the FY2027 NDAA text as of early October 2026 (the June 11, 2026 bill text reviewed did not contain a 702 rider); no scheduled House/Senate floor vote or conference timeline explicitly pairing the two issues; no post-September 22, 2026 news confirming active whip counts or draft compromise text for a standalone 702 bill.

YES means: Congress passes a bill reauthorizing FISA Title VII/Section 702 for two years through both chambers and it is signed into law (or enacted without signature/veto override) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - [2026-06-12] Section 702/Title VII was automatically repealed/lapsed for the first time since 2008 after the House rejected a short-term patch 218-198 and Senate Democrats blocked a parallel effort; this is the baseline status quo the market must overturn. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/fisa-spying-power-scheduled-expire-house-fails-extend-leaving-town-rcna349595 - [2026-07] The original Pulte/DNI flashpoint has been resolved — Jay Clayton was confirmed as DNI in late July 2026 — yet the Section 702 deadlock has persisted regardless, showing the dispute is no longer a single-personnel problem but a deeper policy impasse. https://political.org/2026/09/13/senate-returns-to-a-packed-september-agenda-cryptos-clarity-act-farm-bill-and-reconciliation-3-0-all-hang-in-the-balance/ - [2026-09-13] As of mid-September the Senate was described as under pressure to move reauthorization before the House left for its pre-midterm recess, but the sourced status was still "Senate reauthorisation still pending," with floor time cited as a key obstacle. https://political.org/2026/09/13/senate-returns-to-a-packed-september-agenda-cryptos-clarity-act-farm-bill-and-reconciliation-3-0-all-hang-in-the-balance/ - [2026-10-03] Congress has now left Washington until after the November 3 midterms without resolving the issue; a live NBC News tracker explicitly lists deciding "what to do about warrantless surveillance powers known as FISA Section 702" among the unfinished items "punting" into the lame-duck session. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/live-blog/trump-vance-2026-midterm-elections-congress-live-updates-rcna601069 - [2026-09-30] Both chambers are not scheduled to return until November 9 for a lame-duck session, and FISA Section 702 reauthorization is only one item on a crowded list that also includes FY2027 appropriations (funding expires Dec. 11), the NDAA, a surface-transportation bill, WRDA, Export-Import Bank reauthorization (expires Dec. 31), the Farm Bill, TSCA user fees, and BLM permitting fees — all competing for the same compressed floor schedule. https://www.asaonline.com/2026/09/30/prospects-for-the-lame-duck-session/ - [2026-09-30] This leaves a hard ceiling of roughly seven working weeks (Nov 9–Dec 31) to pass any 702 deal, inclusive of Thanksgiving recess and the Dec. 11 government-funding cliff, which Congress has historically prioritized over surveillance reauthorization when both compete for time. https://www.asaonline.com/2026/09/30/prospects-for-the-lame-duck-session/ - [2026-09] The CR that funds government through Dec. 11, 2026 sets up a "high-stakes negotiation" immediately before the Dec. 31 deadline this contract requires, meaning floor time in the final weeks of the year is likely to be dominated by appropriations brinkmanship rather than FISA. https://www.asaonline.com/2026/09/30/prospects-for-the-lame-duck-session/ - [2026-09-17] No competing Senate vehicle (S.4342 an 18-month extension, S.4344 a 3-year extension) has advanced past "Placed on Calendar" status since cloture on the motion to proceed was withdrawn May 13, 2026, indicating no procedural momentum exists heading into the lame-duck window. - [resolution-criteria technicality] The market's cited primary source, congress.gov's H.R.22 (119th Congress) tracker, is in fact the SAVE Act (voter-ID legislation), not a FISA bill — the resolution's named "primary resolution source" does not track FISA 702 reauthorization at all, confirmed via the official congress.gov actions page and GovTrack mirror, raising a documentation ambiguity that could complicate a clean "Yes" determination absent reliance on the broader "consensus of credible reporting" fallback clause. https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22/all-actions - [status-quo mechanism] Because the FISC has already recertified Section 702 surveillance through March 2027, the operational "must-pass" pressure that forced prior cycles (2012, 2018, 2024) to resolve near their deadlines is absent this cycle, removing the usual year-end forcing function and making further inertia (i.e., another slip into 2027) plausible. - [structural precedent] Even the "successful" three-year House bill (235-191, April 29) and prior clean extensions (H.R. 8035, a competing 5-year bill) all failed to clear both chambers in final form over nine months of active negotiation, so simply allocating a few lame-duck weeks does not overcome a demonstrated inability to bridge the warrant-requirement/reform gap between House and Senate factions. BOTTOM LINE: Section 702 has been lapsed since June 12, 2026 with no bill having passed both chambers as of early October; Congress has now adjourned until November 9, leaving only a short, congested lame-duck window dominated by a Dec. 11 funding deadline and several other must-pass items, while the FISC's certification through March 2027 removes the usual deadline pressure — all of which favor continued inertia and a NO resolution by Dec. 31, 2026. NOT FOUND: No reporting after October 3, 2026 on any specific floor schedule, whip count, or draft compromise text for a 702 bill in the lame-duck session; no confirmation of which chamber would move first in November/December; no clarification from Polymarket or Congress on how the H.R.22/SAVE Act mismatch in the resolution source would be handled.