Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? — Yes

- [2026-04-28] The UAE's Energy Ministry announced via official state-media press release that the UAE would withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ "effective 1 May 2026," citing a review of national production policy and capacity. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced its decision to withdraw from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, effective 1 May 2026, a move aligning with the UAE's strategic long-term economic objectives. - [2026-04-28] The decision was framed as a formal governmental announcement, not a draft or leak: the Gulf country announced on Tuesday that it would quit the organisation to focus on "national interests." The statement came from the Energy Ministry, satisfying the "official statements by authorized ministers/official press release" bar in the resolution criteria. - [2026-05-01] UAE's exit took formal effect, reducing OPEC to 12 remaining full members (then later referenced as 11-12 depending on tracker lag): OPEC currently has 12 members, including, aside from the UAE: Algeria, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela, and the UAE's withdrawal was effective on May 1. - [2026-07 (dated 24 days ago)] A current tracker confirms the post-exit roster: As of 2026, OPEC comprises 11 member countries; the bloc has been shrinking as the United Arab Emirates left in May 2026 and Angola in January 2024. - [2026-06 (Situation Assessment)] Analysts flagged that the UAE's exit could foreshadow further departures: In late 2025, Abu Dhabi's National Oil Company (ADNOC) reaffirmed its commitment to expanding its oil production capacity, through a $150 billion investment plan, with a target of 5 million barrels per day by 2027. - [2026-06 (Shafaq/Reuters sourcing, reported 2026-10-02)] Iraq has openly discussed but not committed to leaving: Government sources told Shafaq News in June that Baghdad was seeking a higher allocation and had considered leaving OPEC, although the Oil Ministry denied any plan to withdraw and reaffirmed Iraq's commitment to the organization. This does not meet the resolution bar (preliminary discussion, denied by ministry). - [2026-08-27] Bloomberg reported, citing anonymous sources, that Venezuela is weighing an OPEC exit amid deepening U.S. ties: Venezuela is considering whether it should quit OPEC, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially delivering a fresh blow to the oil cartel it helped create more than six decades ago; the idea of an exit has been a topic in conversations with US officials, and no final decision has been made. - [2026-08-28] Multiple outlets confirmed the story is sourcing-only, not an official announcement: Every source in the report is anonymous, and no decision has been announced. - [2026-08-31] Analyst commentary (Kpler) assessed a Venezuelan exit as plausible but not imminent: Venezuela is weighing an OPEC exit after the UAE's departure, but with output still years from binding quota levels, a formal break isn't urgent yet, and with Caracas gaining little in practice from staying versus leaving, there is no pressing reason for Venezuela to formalise a break right now. - [2026-10-02] OPEC+ (the wider group) delayed its 2027 capacity review process due to war-related disruption, an indirect sign of continued internal strain but not a withdrawal: OPEC+ has delayed its review to determine 2027 oil output quotas for its members due to disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran, which has affected projects aimed at increasing production capacity in the Middle East; this review, planned for completion by late September 2026, is now expected to finish by mid-November 2026. - [2026-10-04] Venezuela remains a nominal OPEC member but outside the quota-setting mechanism, with no new exit news since August: The decision was taken by seven countries: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman; Venezuela is an OPEC member but is exempt from production quotas, together with Iran and Libya. No announcement of withdrawal has followed the August reports. - [2026-10-02, background] A U.S.-aligned energy policy outlet flagged Venezuela as the most likely next departure given the post-Maduro political realignment: given the change in Venezuela's relationship with the United States following the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January 2026, could one of OPEC's founding members be the next to withdraw? — framed as an open question, not a confirmed plan. BOTTOM LINE: The UAE's formally announced, ministerially confirmed withdrawal (announced 2026-04-28, effective 2026-05-01) already satisfies the question's "any member state... announces they are leaving... before Jan 1, 2027" resolution rule, since it falls inside the market's live window (opened 2026-04-28, closes 2027-01-01). No second country has formally announced withdrawal as of 2026-10-07; Venezuela is only reported to be "considering" an exit (anonymous-sourced, no decision), which does not meet the qualifying bar on its own. NOT FOUND: No official OPEC Secretariat statement/press release (opec.org) could be directly fetched confirming UAE's exit or current roster (site not accessible via fetch); no evidence of any formal Venezuelan, Iraqi, or other member's binding withdrawal announcement after the UAE's as of 2026-10-07.

- [2026-04-28] The UAE announced it would leave OPEC (effective May 1, 2026) after 59 years, citing "national interest" and frustration over production quotas — this is the triggering event for this market, which asks whether an *additional* member will leave before Jan 1, 2027. On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced that it was leaving OPEC, effective on May 1. Source: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67804 - [historical base rate] Full OPEC/membership-termination exits are rare but not isolated: Qatar terminated its membership in January 2019 to focus on natural gas production; Angola, which became a member in 2007, announced its withdrawal in 2023 , and Ecuador and Indonesia each withdrew twice. Over OPEC's 66-year history this yields roughly 6 "former member" departures (Indonesia x2, Ecuador x2, Qatar, Angola, Gabon temporarily, UAE) — an average of roughly one exit announcement every 8-10 years historically, but with clustering in recent years (2016, 2019, 2020, 2023/24, 2026). - [2026-04-29] Analysts immediately flagged specific "flight risk" countries most likely to follow UAE: Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler, flagged Kazakhstan as a key candidate, noting its persistent overproduction, adding that Nigeria could also be one to watch, as it is becoming more self-sufficient via domestic refining (Kazakhstan is OPEC+ non-member, not OPEC itself though). Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/uae-opec-exit-oil-iran-war.html - [2026-04-28] Iraq was also named as a possible departure risk, though Iraqi officials told Reuters the country has no plans to leave OPEC. Source: https://investinglive.com/commodities/uae-exit-from-opec-raises-fears-kazakhstan-and-iraq-could-be-next-to-leave-20260428/ - [2026-06] Iraq signaled dissatisfaction with production limits; Venezuela considers leaving the producer group just months after the United Arab Emirates withdrew, as officials from Caracas are deliberating whether to leave the organization it helped establish more than six decades ago as Venezuela moves closer to the U.S. Source: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/8/28/venezuela-weighs-opec-exit-as-producer-group-faces-growing-fragmentation/ - [2026-08-27/28] Bloomberg broke the Venezuela story via anonymous sourcing: Venezuela is closely examining plans to leave OPEC, according to people familiar with the matter; the idea of an exit has been a topic in conversations with US officials, and no final decision has been made . Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-27/venezuela-weighs-opec-exit-after-decades-as-it-deepens-us-ties - [2026-08-28] Independent fact-check framing emphasized the tentativeness: Bloomberg describes deliberations, not a decision, and every source in the report is anonymous, and no decision has been announced . Source: https://www.riotimesonline.com/venezuela-weighs-opec-exit-2026/ - [2026-09-08] A Semafor analysis questioned Venezuela's incentive to leave given it already faces no quota constraints: Under the current arrangement, Venezuela, along with Iran and Libya, is exempt from production targets because all three countries faced sanctions or conflict that have disrupted output , reducing the practical upside of formal withdrawal. Source: https://www.semafor.com/article/09/08/2026/leaving-opec-wont-give-venezuela-its-oil-back - [2026-10-04] As of the most recent OPEC+ decision, Venezuela is still listed as an OPEC member (not among those adjusting quotas, but not reported as having left): Seven OPEC+ producers (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) decided November targets; Venezuela is not one of them; Venezuela is a founding OPEC member, but it does not have a production target to hold, and under the Declaration of Cooperation it, Iran and Libya are exempt from quotas . This confirms no formal exit had occurred as of Oct 4, 2026. Source: https://www.riotimesonline.com/venezuela-opec-plus-november-oil-targets-2026/ - [base rate observation] Historically, no OPEC exit has required more than a few weeks from internal deliberation/leak to formal announcement once the political decision was made (e.g., Qatar's 2018 exit, Angola's 2023 exit, UAE's 2026 exit were each announced within days of being reported or decided). This suggests that if Venezuela's internal deliberations (ongoing since late August 2026) resolve toward exit, a formal announcement could plausibly occur within the remaining 2026 window. - [expert/analyst sentiment] Multiple analysts described 2026 as marking accelerating fragmentation rather than an isolated event: OPEC's decades-long hold over global oil markets is fraying again as founder member Venezuela becomes the second nation in a matter of months to consider an exit , and a former Omani oil official asked "The very cohesion and credibility of OPEC could be at stake... The critical question is whether this marks the beginning of a broader wave of withdrawals." BOTTOM LINE: The historical base rate for OPEC exits is low in any given year (roughly one departure every few years over six decades), but 2026 is an outlier year already featuring one confirmed exit (UAE) plus an actively-reported, still-undecided deliberation by Venezuela (as of late Aug/early Oct 2026) and persistent "flight risk" chatter around Iraq/Kazakhstan/Nigeria — placing this year's reference class well above the historical average and giving real, if unconfirmed, momentum toward a second 2026 exit before year-end. NOT FOUND: No public polling, prediction-market aggregator, or formal expert probability estimate specifically on "will a second country leave OPEC in 2026" was found; no confirmation that Venezuela, Iraq, or any other member has made a final/formal exit decision as of the latest available reporting (early October 2026).

YES means: at least one more OPEC member state (beyond the UAE, whose withdrawal already occurred effective 2026-05-01) formally announces, via a qualifying official act (ministerial statement, press release, head-of-government declaration, etc.), its withdrawal from OPEC before 2027-01-01. - [2026-04-28] The market's underlying trigger has already technically fired once: the UAE's ministerial, press-released withdrawal (effective May 1) falls inside the question's live window, meaning the question is arguably about whether a *second* qualifying announcement occurs, and the UAE precedent proves the resolution bar (official ministerial statement/press release) is achievable quickly and has already been cleared once in 2026 — raising the prior that a repeat is plausible. Source: https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/uae-announces-exit-opec-effective-1-may-2026-after-59-years.html - [2026-09-01] President Trump, asked directly about a Venezuelan OPEC exit, told reporters "Well, I don't know. That's up to them. I mean, that's going to be up to them," following a Bloomberg report that Venezuela was considering leaving the organization — a notable shift from his January 2026 stance (per background report) that Venezuela should stay, signaling Washington is not discouraging an exit and may even be encouraging one as leverage in the oilfield-lease talks. - [2026-08-28/30] The political-economic precondition for a Venezuelan exit accelerated materially: Trump announced the White House called "the biggest oil deal in world history," claiming the agreement secured US majority control over more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven reserves , and acting president Delcy Rodríguez publicly called it a "historic agreement" — giving Caracas a concrete post-Maduro US alignment that analysts see as the structural driver for leaving OPEC. - [2026-09-07] Kpler's lead analyst, after the deal, characterized a Venezuelan exit as "structurally likely" though not imminent, explicitly flagging that "Acting president Delcy Rodríguez faces internal pressure over her tilt toward Washington, and opposition within Chavismo to that alignment could resurface with knock-on implications for how Caracas handles OPEC" — meaning a sudden political consolidation around the Washington-aligned faction (plausible given the ousting of Maduro in January 2026) could produce a fast, UAE-style snap announcement rather than a slow-walked process. - [2026-09-07] The same analyst noted Venezuelan oil flows are already reorganizing around US-aligned markets independent of OPEC membership status — "exports to the U.S. hit above 700,000 barrels per day in July; India has returned as a major offtaker... Curaçao's Bullenbay terminal is back in service under the Trafigura/Vitol-linked U.S. marketing program" — meaning the practical "cost" of formally exiting OPEC has fallen further, removing friction that would otherwise delay an announcement. - [2026-09-08] Standard Chartered's energy research head flagged a systemic contagion risk rather than an isolated one-off: "what remains critical will be OPEC's credibility, with the risk of a feedback loop of members leaving, lower compliance with quotas, and reduced ability to manage supply" (paraphrased from Rigzone's Sept 7 report), meaning Iraq's repeated quota complaints (June–July 2026) and Venezuela's deliberations could reinforce each other, raising the odds that *at least one* of multiple restive members (Venezuela, Iraq, or an unnamed other) pulls the trigger before year-end. - [2026-06-25] Iraq, while denying any decision, explicitly left the threat live and unresolved, with its Oil Ministry spokesman stating a quota shortfall would force "a decision... regarding whether to remain in or withdraw from OPEC" — a conditional ultimatum tied to the OPEC+ capacity-review process. - [2026-10-02, per earlier reports] That same capacity review — the mechanism Iraq's ultimatum is pegged to — was delayed from late September to mid-November 2026, compressing the review's conclusion into the final seven weeks of the market's window; if the outcome disappoints Iraq (or Iraq perceives it will), Iraq's own stated conditional threshold for an exit announcement could be triggered inside the remaining 2026 calendar, consistent with its own public framing. - [historical pattern] Every recent OPEC exit (Qatar 2018→2019, Angola 2023→2024, UAE April→May 2026) moved from first formal signal to effective announcement within weeks to months, not years, once the internal political decision was reached — meaning that if Venezuela's "structurally likely" (Kpler, Sept 7) deliberations or Iraq's quota-linked ultimatum (ongoing since June) crystallize internally, a Kalshi-qualifying formal announcement could still appear well before the Jan 1, 2027 deadline given roughly three months remain. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case rests on compounding pressure from two still-open threads — Venezuela's US-encouraged, "structurally likely" exit deliberations (accelerated by the Aug 28–30 US oil-reserves deal and Trump's Sept 1 "up to them" remark) and Iraq's unresolved quota ultimatum tied to the OPEC+ capacity review now concluding in mid-November 2026 — either of which, if resolved toward exit, would plausibly produce a fast, UAE-style formal ministerial announcement comfortably within the remaining ~12-week window before the Jan 1, 2027 deadline. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any formal decision, cabinet vote, or ministerial announcement of withdrawal by Venezuela, Iraq, or any other OPEC member dated after October 4, 2026; no confirmation of the mid-November capacity review's actual outcome (it had not yet concluded as of the most recent sources).

YES means: a second OPEC member state (beyond the UAE, whose exit already triggered the market's opening) formally announces — via treaty signing, binding parliamentary/ratification action, authorized ministerial statement, official press release, or equivalent qualifying act — its withdrawal from OPEC at some point before January 1, 2027. - [2026-06-25] Iraq's Oil Ministry explicitly and officially denied exit reports, stating claims of withdrawal "do not reflect the official position" of the government and that neither the PM nor cabinet had raised the issue — directly disqualifying Iraq under the rules' "retraction of previously announced commitments" and "opposition/leak" exclusions. https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2844140-iraq-denies-opec-exit-reports-seeks-higher-output-cap - [2026-06-25] Iraq's stated strategy is explicitly to stay inside OPEC+ and use the capacity-reassessment process (with an independent US consulting firm) to win a higher quota, not to leave — a "work within the system" posture that is the opposite of a withdrawal trajectory. https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2844140-iraq-denies-opec-exit-reports-seeks-higher-output-cap - [2026-08-27/28] Every Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, Rigzone and Investing.com account of Venezuela's deliberations stresses the sourcing is wholly anonymous, that no final decision has been made, and that the idea is a discussion topic with US officials, not an official position — none of these meet the ministerial/press-release/parliamentary bar. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-27/venezuela-weighs-opec-exit-after-decades-as-it-deepens-us-ties - [2026-09-07] Kpler's Homayoun Falakshahi assessed a Venezuelan exit as "structurally likely" but explicitly "not for now," framing the rumor as market-testing rather than an imminent decision — directly analogous to how UAE exit rumors circulated as early as 2021 before the actual 2026 announcement, implying a multi-year lag is plausible. https://www.rigzone.com/news/venezuela_opec_exit_structurally_likely-07-sep-2026-184556-article/ - [2026-09-08] A Kpler/Semafor analysis by the firm's own Head of Middle East Energy & OPEC+ research argues Venezuela has little to gain from leaving now: it is already exempt from quotas, and the September 2026 US oil deal gives Washington "sweeping influence" over Venezuelan output without requiring an OPEC exit, so "remaining inside OPEC costs Venezuela little today." https://www.semafor.com/article/09/08/2026/leaving-opec-wont-give-venezuela-its-oil-back - [2026-10-04] OPEC's own press corner (opec.org) shows the week's official output — a JMMC meeting and a joint reaffirmation statement by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman "reaffirm commitment to market stability" — with no withdrawal announcement from any member, and no Venezuela or Iraq exit item appears anywhere in the Oct 2026 press-release list. https://www.opec.org/ - [2026-10-04] Venezuela is confirmed still an OPEC member as of the latest OPEC+ decision (holding November targets), continuing its long-standing quota-exempt status alongside Iran and Libya, with no indication a withdrawal filing is imminent. https://www.riotimesonline.com/venezuela-opec-plus-november-oil-targets-2026/ - [2026-10-02/09] The OPEC+ capacity-review process underpinning Iraq's quota grievance has been pushed to mid-November 2026, meaning the mechanism Iraq is using to seek a bigger quota (its stated alternative to leaving) won't even conclude until over six weeks before the market's close — leaving little practical runway for a quota dispute to escalate into a formal Iraqi exit announcement by Dec 31. https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/week-in-focus-4-9th-october-2026-fomc-minutes-us-ism-services-pmi-opec-canadian-jobs-and-ecb-minutes - [historical pattern] UAE's own 2026 exit was reportedly preceded by rumors dating back to 2021 (per Kpler's Sep 7 analysis), meaning even a "serious" internal deliberation like Venezuela's or Iraq's has historically taken years, not months, to convert into a qualifying formal announcement — a strong status-quo-inertia argument against a second exit crystallizing in the ~12 weeks left before Jan 1, 2027. https://www.rigzone.com/news/venezuela_opec_exit_structurally_likely-07-sep-2026-184556-article/ BOTTOM LINE: Every candidate for a "second" 2026/27 OPEC departure — Iraq (officially denied, pursuing a quota fix instead) and Venezuela (anonymously sourced deliberation, no decision, and an analyst consensus that leaving yields little practical benefit given its existing quota exemption) — currently falls short of the resolution criteria's qualifying bar, and the official OPEC press record as of Oct 4-6, 2026 shows cohesion language, not a withdrawal. NOT FOUND: No official ministerial statement, OPEC Secretariat notice, or parliamentary/head-of-state announcement from Venezuela, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Nigeria or any other member indicating a decided (vs. merely considered) withdrawal as of the fetch date (Oct 7, 2026); no post-Oct 4 OPEC+ meeting readout yet exists (next meeting is Nov 1, 2026), so no fresher data point is available within the last 30 days beyond what is cited.