Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in November 2026?

- [2026-09-11] The BLS released the August 2026 CPI report: the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 3.3 percent over the last 12 months, and for the month, the index increased 0.3 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis . Critically, the all items less food and energy index rose 2.4 percent over the year, following a 2.5-percent increase over the 12 months ending July (BLS CPI news release, USDL-26-1496). https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf - [2026-09-11] Core CPI has been trending down from recent highs: the 12-month core reading moved from 2.5% (July 2026) to 2.4% (August 2026), with monthly core gains of 0.2% in July and 0.3% in August (BLS Table A). Both readings are comfortably below the 2.9% strike. - [2026-09-11] Core CPI's 12-month trajectory earlier in 2026 (per BLS Table 5) was: Jan 2.4%, Feb 2.4%, Mar 3.3%, Apr 3.8%, May 4.2%, Jun 3.5%, Jul 2.5%, Aug 2.4% — showing a spring spike (likely tariff pass-through) that has since receded toward 2.4-2.5%. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf - [2026-10-14 scheduled] The next CPI release, covering September 2026 data, is scheduled by BLS for Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET, per the release note at the end of the August report: The Consumer Price Index news release for September 2026 is scheduled to be published on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. (ET). https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf - [2026-10-02] The Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast (updated Oct 2) projects September 2026 core CPI up 0.20% for the month and 2.39% year-over-year, versus headline CPI nowcast near 3.60% y/y (driven by energy). https://jorgai.com/blog/september-2026-cpi-report-preview-october-14 - [2026-11-10 scheduled] October 2026 CPI data is scheduled for release Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. https://www.bls.gov/schedule - [2026-12-10 scheduled] November 2026 CPI data — the series this market resolves on — is scheduled for release Thursday, December 10, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET, the same date as the stated trading close. https://www.bls.gov/schedule - [2026-09-02] A government shutdown risk for October 2026 was averted: Congress passed and the President signed a continuing resolution funding the government through December 11, 2026, well past the question's relevant data releases. "The feared **government shutdown October 2026** did not happen" as a CR was signed September 2, 2026. https://govtschemes.org/government-shutdown-october-2026/ - [2025-10-01 to 2025-11-12, historical] The prior-year 2025 shutdown (43 days) had delayed/cancelled some 2025 CPI data (October 2025 not published; November 2025 based on incomplete data), a disruption explicitly footnoted in the current BLS releases: "NOTE: The Oct and Nov 2025 data values are not available due to the 2025 lapse in appropriations." This is a historical artifact, not a current blocker, given funding is now secured into December 2026. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf - [2026-09-16] The Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75–4.00% at its September meeting, one hike in 2026 so far, with markets pricing low odds (~17% as of early October) of a further hike on October 28, consistent with core inflation running near/at the Fed's comfort zone rather than accelerating. https://jorgai.com/blog/september-2026-cpi-report-preview-october-14 - [2026-10-07] As of today, no CPI print for September, October, or November 2026 has yet been released; the only confirmed data point is the August 2026 reading of 2.4% core CPI y/y, well below the 2.9% strike, with three more monthly reports (Sep, Oct, Nov) due before the November-2026 figure is reported on December 10, 2026. BOTTOM LINE: The most recent confirmed data (August 2026) show core CPI at 2.4% y/y and decelerating from a spring 2026 spike, with no current government-shutdown threat to the data pipeline through December 2026; for core CPI to print above 2.9% for the year ending November 2026, inflation would need to reaccelerate meaningfully over the next three monthly reports, which is not what nowcasts (Cleveland Fed: ~2.4% for September) currently suggest. NOT FOUND: No official/BLS core CPI forecast exists yet for October or November 2026 (only nowcast estimates for September); no confirmation of any further government funding risk between the current CR's December 11, 2026 expiration and the question's December 10, 2026 close (the CR's one-day-later expiration is a minor risk factor not resolved in the sources found).

- [2026-09-11] Actual core CPI (BLS data as echoed by financial trackers): the August 2026 CPI report showed US consumer prices rose 0.1% in August 2026 and 3.4% from a year earlier, with core inflation ticking up to 0.3% on the month and holding at 2.4% annually , continuing a multi-year decline from the 3%+ core readings seen in 2023–2025. - [2026-10-02] Cleveland Fed's "Inflation Nowcasting" model, the most current real-time estimate available, puts Nowcasts of core PCE inflation are primarily based on past core PCE inflation, but they can also be affected by the availability of other data; its September 2026 point estimate shows core CPI year-over-year at 2.39%, i.e., well below the 2.9% strike (https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting). - [2026-10-04] A CPI preview summarizing the trend notes Core inflation at 2.4% is close to where the Fed wants it. Headline inflation at 3.4% is a full point higher, and the difference is almost entirely energy , indicating the gap between headline and core is currently driven by energy/tariff pass-through rather than broad-based core pressure (https://jorgai.com/blog/september-2026-cpi-report-preview-october-14). - [2026-08-14] Philadelphia Fed Q3 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters (32 panelists) put the Q4/Q4 2026 core CPI forecast at 2.8%, "little changed from the previous estimates," versus 2.9% in the prior (Q2 2026) survey — i.e., professional forecasters' central estimate for the end of 2026 sits just below the 2.9% threshold (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q3-2026). - [2026-05-15] Earlier in the year, the Q2 2026 SPF had been more hawkish: Measured on a fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter basis, headline CPI and core CPI inflation in 2026 are expected to average 3.5 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively, up from the previous estimates of 2.6 percent — showing forecasters sharply raised and then later trimmed their 2026 core CPI view over the course of the year (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q2-2026). - [2026-09-16] By contrast, the FOMC's own Summary of Economic Projections (a core PCE, not core CPI, measure) moved the other way: The median projection for headline PCE inflation in 2026 rose to 3.7 percent year over year compared to 3.6 percent in the June SEP. The median projection for core PCE inflation rose to 3.4 percent versus 3.3 percent in June (https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/macro_minute/2026/sep_by_sep_how_fed_walks_inflation_back_to_2_percent). Core PCE historically runs below core CPI, so a 3.4% core-PCE median is not obviously consistent with a sub-2.5% actual core CPI print, underscoring genuine forecaster disagreement about how much tariff-driven inflation is still to come. - [2026-01-13 to 2026-02-13] Base-rate/process note: even in a "normal" year the BLS has occasionally slipped its CPI calendar — the January 2026 CPI print was delayed from Feb 11 to Feb 13, 2026, "by the government shutdown" (https://thriveinmarkets.com/calendar/indicator/cpi/), showing data-timing risk is a real, recurring feature of this reference class, not just a 2025 one-off. - [2025-11-12] Precedent for the market's own extension clause: during the 2025 shutdown (Oct 1–Nov 12, 2025), Most CPI operations, including data collection, were suspended during that time period. Some staff were recalled between October 9, 2025 and October 24, 2025 to produce the September 2025 CPI which was released on October 24, 2025 , and November 2025 CPI was ultimately pushed to December 18, 2025 (https://lifopro.com/revised-bls-cpi-ppi-release-dates/) — roughly a 5-week slip for the November data, well inside the market's "sooner of release or six months" extension window. - [2026-10-06] No evidence of an active federal shutdown disrupting BLS operations as of question-asked date; the September 2026 CPI release is on its normal schedule for October 14, 2026 (https://nowflation.com/cpi-release-dates), so barring a new shutdown, the November 2026 CPI print should arrive on the normal mid-December schedule, inside the December 10 trading-close window only if released early, otherwise likely just after close (resolution rules otherwise extend the deadline). - [2025-01] Longer base-rate context: core CPI YoY stayed above 2.9% almost continuously from early 2021 through 2024 and into much of 2025 (readings such as 3.0–3.3% were the norm per SPF historical tables, e.g., Q4 2025 SPF noting Core CPI actuals/estimates of "3.2 · 3.1 · 3.0" for recent quarters), so "above 2.9%" was the historical norm for roughly four years before the 2026 disinflation brought it down to the 2.4–2.5% area (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2025/spfQ425.pdf). BOTTOM LINE: The relevant base rate has flipped during 2026: after years of core CPI persistently printing above 2.9%, actual prints have fallen to ~2.4–2.5% by August 2026 and nowcasts put September near 2.4%, while the most recent professional-forecaster consensus (SPF, Aug 2026) sees Q4-2026 core CPI at 2.8% — just under the 2.9% strike — even as the Fed's own (different, core-PCE) measure assumes reacceleration; absent a fresh upside shock, the outside view favors core CPI remaining at or below 2.9% through November 2026, though the margin is thin and historically this series has had above-2.9% readings be the norm rather than the exception in recent years. NOT FOUND: No single authoritative, published point forecast specifically for the 12-month core CPI rate ending November 2026 (as opposed to Q4/Q4 or monthly nowcasts) was located; no Kalshi/other prediction-market historical settlement data for this specific contract type were found to compute a market-implied base rate independent of the live price.

YES means: the BLS reports the 12-month change in core CPI (all items less food and energy) for November 2026, released December 10, 2026, as 3.0% or higher (i.e., "more than 2.9%" on the published one-decimal scale). - [2026-09-11] PNC's post-release note on the August CPI print flagged that August inflation was the firmest monthly inflation print since April, with only one monthly reading over the past twelve months consistent with the Fed's 2% target , and separately that odds of a Fed rate hike rose to around 90% after the report, which PNC judged appropriate because inflation was not moderating quickly enough . https://www.pnc.com/content/dam/pnc-com/pdf/aboutpnc/EconomicReports/EconomicUpdates/2026/PNC_Economics_Research_CPI_11_September_2026.pdf - [2026-09-11] PNC's underlying-trend table shows core CPI monthly gains re-accelerating through mid-2026 before August: core goods prices increased 0.11% in August, driven mainly by autos, and over the past three months goods inflation rose at a 0.9% annualized pace, improved but still too hot , while shelter and "supercore" services remained sticky — shelter inflation increased 0.26% in August, lowering its annual rate to 3.0%, roughly in line with pre-pandemic norms, even so there is little evidence shelter will provide much additional disinflation ahead . - [2026-09-11] The same report's detailed table shows core-services-ex-shelter ("supercore") monthly inflation jumping to 0.42% in August, its hottest reading in the series shown, after 0.35% in July — a concrete acceleration in the services side that is harder for the Fed/BLS data to quickly reverse. - [2026-08-28] The Minneapolis Fed's own tariff-accounting model finds tariff pass-through has become more visible and durable: absent tariffs, core PCE inflation would still be about 1 percentage point above the Fed's 2 percent target , and specifically that by mid-2026 through December 2025 the fitted relationship between tariffs and goods inflation was flat, but by July 2026 that relationship had turned markedly positive , led by apparel categories moving from near-zero to meaningfully positive inflation. - [2026-08-28] The same analysis notes a second, non-tariff upside driver still building: tariffs account for 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points of core PCE inflation as of July , while AI-driven demand for electronics is adding a comparable amount — a swing in video/information-processing equipment prices alone "enough to add another 0.4 percentage points to core PCE inflation," a mechanism not yet exhausted and unlikely to reverse quickly. - [2026-10-06] The Cleveland Fed's real-time nowcast shows a meaningful gap between core CPI (2.39% y/y for September) and core PCE (3.02% y/y for September), per the updated table on its page — a reminder that the Fed's preferred measure is running well above the CPI's, consistent with unresolved tariff/AI cost pressure that could still show up more fully in CPI's goods and services components in coming months. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting - [2026-09-11] CNBC's release-day report on August's data notes the upside surprise directly: stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI posted a 0.3% monthly gain, 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast, with the core annual rate at 2.4%, matching the estimate — i.e., even as the 12-month rate held at 2.4%, the monthly pace beat expectations, a leading indicator that forecasters have recently under-estimated monthly core momentum. - [2026-09-16] A trade press summary of New York Fed liberty street research cited by the Minneapolis Fed piece finds firms are not done passing through costs: a survey from the Fed finds firms are still planning further tariff-related price increases, and new auto-parts tariffs had just been announced as of the Minneapolis Fed's August 28 article, implying a fresh tariff-cost wave could still hit new/used vehicle prices in the Sep–Nov window this question covers. - [2026-09-22, approx] An independent inflation tracker summarizing the August release stressed that the deceleration in core was marginal and energy-driven dynamics (an Iran-conflict-linked oil shock) were simultaneously pushing headline higher, noting looking at core inflation, which excludes food and energy, prices rose 2.4% year-over-year, a slight deceleration from the prior two months — i.e., only a tenth-of-a-point cushion separates the trend from reversing back upward if goods or supercore reaccelerate as PNC's data suggest they already are. BOTTOM LINE: The clearest path to YES is a reacceleration in the "supercore" services and tariff/AI-exposed core-goods components that PNC and the Minneapolis Fed already document as building through mid-to-late 2026 (supercore services at 0.42% m/m in August, tariff and AI cost pass-through still incomplete, core-PCE running nearly 0.6pp hotter than core CPI); if monthly core CPI prints average roughly 0.3%+ across September–November (a pace already seen in April and August 2026) rather than the 0.2% implied by current nowcasts, the 12-month rate could climb from 2.4% back toward or above 2.9% by the November report. NOT FOUND: No forecaster or Fed model was found projecting core CPI specifically above 2.9% for November 2026 (SPF and Cleveland Fed nowcasts all cluster at/below that level); no data confirming whether the newly announced auto-parts tariffs cited by the Minneapolis Fed have yet shown up in September's CPI (due Oct 14).

YES means: the BLS reports core CPI (All Items Less Food and Energy) up more than 2.9% year-over-year for the twelve months ending November 2026, in the one-decimal figure from the December 10, 2026 release (or a later release if the market's shutdown-extension clause is triggered). This dimension argues the NO case — that the print lands at or below 2.9%. - [2026-08-14] The Philadelphia Fed's Q3 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters — the only primary-source, published numeric forecast spanning the contract's window — shows forecasters lowering, not raising, their near-term core CPI view: current-quarter (Q3 2026) core CPI is forecast at an annualized 2.7%, down from 2.9% in the prior survey, with the Q4/Q4 2026 median at 2.8%. https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q3-2026 - [2026-10-06] The Cleveland Fed's nowcast, updated most recently on October 6 (newer than the Oct 2 figure cited elsewhere), still shows September 2026 core CPI at 2.39% year-over-year with a 0.20% monthly gain, confirming the deceleration has persisted through the latest available model update rather than reversing. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting - [2026-10-04] A CPI preview summarizing current dynamics notes the gap between elevated headline and tame core is "almost entirely energy," and frames a 0.2% monthly core gain as "roughly 2.4%, which is near the Fed's 2% goal" for September — i.e., no model currently points to a core reacceleration that would threaten the 2.9% strike. https://jorgai.com/blog/september-2026-cpi-report-preview-october-14 - [2026-09-30] The Fed's own preferred core PCE gauge for August came in at 3.0% y/y, cooler than the 3.3% consensus expected, and core CPI (2.4-2.5% in the same month per other sources) continues to run roughly 0.5-0.6 points below core PCE — underscoring that even the hotter Fed-preferred measure surprised to the downside, and the specific CPI metric this contract resolves on has structurally more room below 2.9%. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/feds-preferred-gauge-showed-core-inflation-at-3point0percent-in-august-much-lighter-than-expected.html - [2026-09-11] PNC's own September CPI note had forecast Fed hikes in "September, December and March" because inflation "remains too high" and "has moved in the wrong direction this year" — a hawkish call made before the subsequent cooler-than-expected August core PCE (Sept 30) and before the Cleveland Fed's still-benign September core CPI nowcast, meaning the most prominent hawkish private-sector forecast already looks stale relative to the latest data. https://www.pnc.com/content/dam/pnc-com/pdf/aboutpnc/EconomicReports/EconomicUpdates/2026/PNC_Economics_Research_CPI_11_September_2026.pdf - [2026-09-25] Santander's shelter-cost analysis flags a pickup in the Zillow Observed Rent Index (monthly gains of "+0.28%, +0.32%, +0.34%, and +0.34%" since May) as a future risk to core inflation, but the author's own estimate places the resulting one-to-two-point acceleration in BLS shelter measures as occurring "likely in 2027" — i.e., explicitly outside the November 2026 resolution window this contract covers. - [2026-10-06] Independent commentary assesses the risk of a new shutdown at the CR's December 11, 2026 expiration as "exceptionally high," but that date falls one day after this market's December 10 close and after the scheduled November-CPI release, meaning even a worst-case post-close shutdown would not have disrupted collection or publication of the specific data this contract resolves on. https://fxnx.com/en/blog/there-us-government-shutdown-11-december - [2026-09-11] Trading Economics independently corroborates that August's 2.4% core reading was "the lowest since March 2021," reinforcing that the current trend is a multi-year low rather than a transient dip. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-inflation-rate - [2026-10-06] Nowflation's pre-registered, timestamped forecast for the September 2026 report (an ensemble of in-house model, Cleveland Fed nowcast, and Street consensus) centers on headline CPI near 3.58-3.7%, with no equivalent ensemble core figure above the 2.4-2.5% range flagged, consistent with energy, not core, driving any headline upside. https://nowflation.com/cpi-preview/september-2026 - [2026-09-01] The CR funding the government through December 11 passed with large bipartisan margins (370-48 House, 90-6 Senate) specifically to avoid a shutdown colliding with the November midterms, suggesting both parties have a near-term political incentive to avoid disrupting BLS operations at least through the November 10 (October CPI) release. https://leadingage.org/averting-shutdown-congress-passes-funding-measure-through-december-11/ BOTTOM LINE: Every primary and model-based source available — the Philadelphia Fed's SPF, the Cleveland Fed's daily nowcast, and private-sector CPI previews — currently converges on a core CPI path in the 2.4%–2.8% range through year-end 2026, comfortably below the 2.9% strike, and the identified upside risks (shelter reacceleration, a December-11 shutdown) are each dated or mechanically positioned outside the window that determines this contract's resolution. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any core CPI forecast, official or private, above 2.9% for Q4 2026 or the November 2026 twelve-month window; no confirmation of how a shutdown beginning December 11 (one day after close) would be treated if it somehow delayed collection used in the already-scheduled December 10 release.