Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 83,000 jobs?

- [2026-09-18] The FRED/BLS State and Metro Area Employment series for All Employees: Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing in Washington (SMU53000003133640001, not seasonally adjusted) was last updated with data through July 2026, with monthly values of Jul 2026: 86.0 Thousands of Persons, Not Seasonally Adjusted https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU53000003133640001 - [2026-08-21] The same series shows a clear upward monthly trend over the prior five months: Mar 2026: 82.1, Apr 2026: 82.7, May 2026: 83.3, Jun 2026: 84.7, Jul 2026: 86.0 (thousands of persons, NSA). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU53000003133640001 - [2026-09-13] An industry workforce report citing BLS CES series CES3133640001 states the fastest growth over the year to July 2026 was in Washington, up 7.2 percent on the 737 rate increase , confirming a rising trajectory in WA aerospace employment. https://c3workforce.com/insights/aerospace-workforce-2026 - [2026-09-13] At the national level, US aerospace product and parts manufacturing employed 594,500 people in July 2026, up 26,000 or 4.6 percent in a year, while total manufacturing grew 0.2 percent , indicating the WA gains are part of a broader industry hiring surge tied to aircraft production rate increases. https://c3workforce.com/insights/aerospace-workforce-2026 - [2026-09-13] Demand drivers cited include Boeing's Q2 2026 results, where Boeing reported second quarter 2026 revenue of $24.6 billion, up 8 percent, a record total backlog of $715 billion including more than 6,200 commercial airplanes, and said the 737 line began transitioning to 47 a month during the quarter , directly relevant since the 737 is built in Renton, WA. https://c3workforce.com/insights/aerospace-workforce-2026 - [2026-09-18] The next scheduled BLS State and Metro Area Employment release (which will add August 2026 data) was dated September 18, 2026, per the FRED release calendar notation on the series page; subsequent months (Sept–Dec 2026) remain unpublished as of today. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU53000003133640001 - [2026-09-13] A watch-item flagged by industry analysts: whether the August 2026 value for BLS series CES3133640001 extends the streak , and continued 737/787 rate increases that could sustain the hiring trend into year-end. https://c3workforce.com/insights/aerospace-workforce-2026 - [2020 report, dated for context] Historical context: Washington's aerospace employment annual average was around Aerospace employment: 82,700 in 2020 (annual average) , showing the 83,000 threshold is near where WA aerospace employment stood five years ago, before a sharp pandemic-era decline and the current multi-year recovery. https://app.leg.wa.gov/committeeschedules/Home/Document/223739 - [2026-06-25] AIA's 2026 Facts and Figures report (June 25, 2026, covering 2025 data) is cited as a source for state-level aerospace and defense employment rankings, confirming Washington remains among the top states for aerospace manufacturing employment concentration. https://c3workforce.com/insights/aerospace-workforce-2026 NOT FOUND: Exact January and February 2026 monthly values for the WA series (needed to compute a precise year-to-date average); the official BLS QCEW/CES 2025 Washington NAICS 3364 annual-average figure (to establish the 2025 baseline precisely); any August–December 2026 monthly data (not yet published as of today); any direct BLS statement or market-specific commentary addressing the 83,000 annual-average threshold for 2026. BOTTOM LINE: The most recent published BLS data (through July 2026, not seasonally adjusted) shows Washington aerospace manufacturing employment rising steadily each month since March 2026 (82.1→86.0 thousand), driven by Boeing's 737 rate increase to 47/month and a broader industry hiring surge; if this upward trajectory continues or holds through year-end, the annual average for 2026 would plausibly clear 83,000, but confirmation requires the still-unpublished August–December 2026 data and the final BLS annual-average release.

- [2026-08-21] BLS state CES data (not seasonally adjusted, series SMU53000003133640001) show Washington NAICS 3364 employment climbing through H1 2026: Jul 2026: 86.0, Jun 2026: 84.7, May 2026: 83.3, Apr 2026: 82.7, Mar 2026: 82.1 (thousands of persons). Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU53000003133640001 - [2026-01-28] Prior-vintage BLS data for the same series showed Washington still well below the 83k threshold in late 2025 (Sep 2025: 76.4k, Aug 2025: 76.3k, Jul 2025: 76.8k, Jun 2025: 75.9k, May 2025: 75.9k), confirming the current ramp is a sharp and recent acceleration rather than a stable plateau. Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/SMU53000003133640001 - [2026-09-13] Industry tracker reporting on national BLS CES data states five states, California, Washington, Texas, Florida and Kansas, hold 44 percent of aerospace and defense employment, and the fastest growth over the year to July 2026 was in Washington, up 7.2 percent on the 737 rate increase , corroborating the state-level FRED trend from an independent compilation. Source: https://c3workforce.com/insights/aerospace-workforce-2026 - [1990-2025 history] Longer-run FRED history for this same Washington series shows the 83k level has been crossed repeatedly in past Boeing production cycles (e.g., ~83-86k in 2007-2009, ~83-97k in 2011-2016, ~82-89k in 2017-2019) and fallen well below it during downturns (e.g., high-50s to mid-60s in 1993-1995 and 1999-2004, high-60s to mid-70s in 2020-2025). This indicates 83k is a historically "mid-cycle" level, neither a record high nor unusually low. Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/SMU53000003133640001 - [2021-11-01 report, WA state] A 2020 state workforce report noted the core "Aerospace Manufacturing and Parts" (NAICS 3364) industry employed 83,904 people in 2018 , showing that 2018's annual level was almost exactly at today's 83,000 strike, i.e., historically borderline rather than extreme. Source: https://wtb.wa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/FINAL-Aerospace-Report.pdf - [2026-09-13] National (not state) NAICS 3364 employment hit a multi-year high in 2026: US aerospace product and parts manufacturing employed 594,500 people in July 2026, up 26,000 or 4.6 percent in a year , confirming an industry-wide expansion cycle (driven by Boeing/Airbus rate increases and defense spending) that Washington, as the largest single-state hub, is participating in disproportionately. Source: https://c3workforce.com/insights/aerospace-workforce-2026 - [National context, 1987-2024] National BLS Industry Productivity annual data show the U.S. aerospace manufacturing workforce bottomed around 483-513k in 2020-2021 and recovered to 537.4 in 2023, 563.0 in 2024 (thousands) , consistent with a broad recovery/expansion cycle now reaching Washington with a lag. Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/IPUEN3364W200000000 - [No dedicated prediction-market or poll history found] No history of this specific Kalshi contract (or an equivalent prior-year version) could be located, so there is no direct market base rate; the "outside view" here rests on BLS historical series behavior and current-cycle trend data rather than on past forecaster accuracy. BOTTOM LINE: Historically, Washington's NAICS 3364 annual-average employment has crossed 83,000 in past up-cycles (2007-09, 2011-19) and fallen well short in down-cycles (1999-2005, 2020-2025); the 83,000 line is a realistic mid-cycle marker, not an extreme. The current cycle, driven by Boeing's 737 rate increases, has already pushed monthly (NSA) employment from the mid-70s in 2025 to 82.1-86.0k in March-July 2026, a trajectory that—if sustained or further increased in H2—makes a full-year 2026 average above 83,000 plausible and consistent with the direction (not just the level) of comparable past recovery episodes. NOT FOUND: Washington's actual January-February 2026 monthly values, Washington's August-onward 2026 monthly values, an official BLS QCEW/CES 2026 annual-average figure (not yet published, as annual averages are finalized only after the full year's data are in, typically early the following year), and any existing prediction-market or analyst point-forecast specifically for Washington's 2026 annual average in this series.

YES means: BLS publishes a Washington NAICS 3364 (Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing) 2026 annual-average employment figure above 83,000 jobs. - [2026-09-16] Washington's Employment Security Department (ESD) state labor-market profile, updated September 2026, reports that 7,300 (2.7%) more manufacturing jobs, with manufacturing employment increasing over the past several months, and aerospace manufacturing up 5,800 over the year. This is an independent state-agency confirmation (distinct from the FRED/BLS CES series already cited) that the aerospace hiring surge is broad and accelerating into August 2026, not a one-month blip. - [2026-09-16] The same ESD release shows statewide manufacturing (goods-producing) employment at 279,100 in Aug. 2026, versus 279,000 in Jul. 2026 and 271,800 in Aug. 2025, a 2.7% year-over-year gain , indicating the manufacturing/aerospace hiring trend held through the most recent month for which state-level data exists, supporting continuation of the upward trajectory noted in the FRED series through July. - [2026-07-31] Boeing's Form 10-Q for Q2 2026 confirms that during the first half of 2026, the 737 program began to transition from a production rate of 42 to 47 per month with FAA concurrence, and began low-rate production on a new 737 production line in July 2026 , a direct, verifiable mechanism for additional Renton-area hiring in H2 2026 beyond what was already captured in the July FRED data. - [2026-10-05] Forecast International's September 2026 commercial-aircraft production tracker reports that commercial aircraft manufacturing rebounded in September 2026, with total output rising to 146 units from 131 in August and surpassing July's previous recent high of 137 aircraft , and that the 737 MAX program continued to serve as a stable source of production in September , suggesting Boeing's Washington-based 737 line kept running at an elevated, rate-increase-supported pace into Q4 2026 — the months still needed to lift the full-year average. - [2025-12-17] An earlier Forecast International headline flagged by this same tracker series, titled "Boeing 737 MAX Production: Signs Emerge of a Potential 63-Per-Month Rate," points to a credible longer-run upside case: if Boeing pushes past 47/month toward higher rates as planned, Renton-area aerospace hiring could keep climbing through late 2026, further supporting an above-83,000 annual average. (Headline cited per search result; full article not fetched.) - [2026-09-13] National industry data already cited by colleagues show Washington posting the fastest year-over-year aerospace employment growth of any state (7.2%) through July 2026; combined with the newly confirmed August ESD manufacturing data, this indicates the growth rate has not decelerated through the most recent available month. BOTTOM LINE: Two independent, more-recent data points — the WA ESD's own August 2026 payroll report (aerospace manufacturing up 5,800 y/y, manufacturing overall still rising) and Boeing's confirmed 42→47/month 737 rate transition plus a new fourth production line starting in July 2026 — corroborate and extend the FRED series' March–July climb (82.1k→86.0k), and September 2026 industry production data show the 737 line still running at an elevated, stable pace into Q4. If the monthly NSA series merely holds near its July level (86.0k) rather than reverses sharply, the 2026 annual average would clear 83,000 comfortably, making sustained Boeing 737/787 rate increases through Q4 2026 the single most likely path to YES. NOT FOUND: An official BLS or ESD monthly figure for Washington NAICS 3364 specifically beyond July 2026 (August–December 2026 not yet published in the FRED/CES state series); any explicit full-year 2026 forecast or point estimate for the WA aerospace annual average from BLS, ESD, or industry analysts.

YES means: BLS's official annual-average employment figure for Washington NAICS 3364 (Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing) for calendar-year 2026 comes in above 83,000. The dimension below argues for NO (annual average ≤83,000). - [2026-04] Washington's own Employment Security Department/OFM joint report shows seasonally-adjusted aerospace employment levels well under the 83,000 strike for the first two months of 2026: Aerospace Employment (level) was 84,000, 81,100, 81,300, 81,800 for the Nov-25, Dec-25, Jan-26 and Feb-26 columns — meaning Feb-26 (81,800) was still *below* the year-ago Feb-25 level of 84,000, a year-over-year decline, not the acceleration implied by later-vintage data. https://ofm.wa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/monthly_economic_report.pdf - [2026-03] An earlier vintage of the same Dec-25 month showed a different, higher value: Aerospace Employment (level) was 79,400, 80,800, 80,400, 81,900 for Sep-25 through Dec-25 , versus 81,100 for Dec-25 in the April report — a roughly 800-job downward revision to the same month in one release cycle, illustrating that the "strong recovery" readings cited elsewhere are subject to material benchmark revisions that have historically moved in both directions. https://ofm.wa.gov/wp-content/uploads/monthly_economic_report.pdf - [2026-05] A third vintage revised Dec-25 down again, to 80,400, and put Mar-26 at only 82,100: Aerospace Employment (level) was 80,400, 81,000, 81,500, 82,100 for Dec-25 through Mar-26 , confirming a pattern of successive downward re-benchmarking of recent months rather than a clean monotonic climb. https://ofm.wa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/May_2026_economic_report.pdf - [2026-07] Two months later, the same Mar-26 figure was revised down sharply again: Aerospace Employment (level) was 79,400, 82,600, 83,100, 84,000 for Mar-26 through Jun-26 — Mar-26 dropped from 82,100 to 79,400 across vintages, a ~2,700-job swing for one month, underscoring that any single month's "high" preliminary reading (including Jul-26's NSA 86.0 cited elsewhere) carries real downside revision risk before the year is finalized. https://ofm.wa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/July_2026_economic_report.pdf - [2026-08] The latest available vintage (through July 2026) gives seasonally-adjusted levels of Aerospace Employment (level) was 79,500, 83,000, 84,000, 84,700 for Apr-26 through Jul-26 — these SA figures run roughly 1,000-1,300 below the NSA figures cited elsewhere for the same months, showing the "headline" NSA strength is partly a seasonal-adjustment artifact rather than pure underlying growth. https://ofm.wa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/August_2026_Economic_report.pdf - [2025-04] A seasonal/December-dip pattern recurs across years: in the prior cycle, Aerospace Employment (level) was 81,700, 79,600, 79,200, 78,300 for Nov-24 through Feb-25 , a sharp Nov-to-Dec drop of roughly 2,100 jobs — if a similar seasonal pullback recurs in Nov-Dec 2026, it would directly erode whatever cushion the mid-year rate-47 ramp builds into the annual average. https://ofm.wa.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/default/files/public/dataresearch/economy/monthlyeconomicreport/April2025EconomicReport.pdf - [2026-05-27] Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg cautioned that reaching the Rate 47 737 target is a stabilization process, not guaranteed continued acceleration: "We've passed the capstone review for rate 47, so we are now in the process of running the line at the 47-a-month rate," Ortberg said. "It'll probably take us a few months of stabilization there." A plateau at the newly reached rate — rather than further hiring to chase rate 52/63 — would cap the H2 employment gains needed to lift the full-year average comfortably past 83,000. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/27/boeing-ortberg-737-max-production.html - [2026-04] Washington's broader economy shows cooling signals that could spill over into manufacturing hiring restraint: the state's own leading-indicator dashboard flagged U.S. employment growth slowing with a sharp February 2026 nonfarm payroll decline of -133,000 and layoff announcements increasing 25% month-over-month in late March, alongside the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index falling to -0.36, indicating lower economic conditions , and Washington General Fund revenue coming in below forecast. https://ofm.wa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/monthly_economic_report.pdf - [2026-04] Separately, large non-aerospace layoffs continue across Washington's economy (Amazon ~2,599, T-Mobile ~637, Oracle ~475 in subsequent months per the same OFM reports), indicating the state's labor market is not uniformly expanding; if any comparable cost-cutting pressure reaches Boeing's supplier base or white-collar aerospace roles, it could offset blue-collar 737-line hiring gains. https://ofm.wa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/monthly_economic_report.pdf - [2026-10-01] Boeing's SPEEA engineering/technical unions only avoided a strike by ratifying a new contract on October 1, 2026 with "immediate 10% raises" — rising labor costs from this and the earlier IAM contract increase pressure on Boeing to control headcount growth even as production rates rise, a cost dynamic that cuts against assuming hiring will keep pace with output indefinitely through year-end. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/10/01/boeing-contract-engineers-technical-workers.html - [recent, undated] A 2025 annual-average baseline compiled from BLS QCEW data is implicitly below the 2026 strike, since every monthly reading cited by colleagues for 2025 (per FRED, in the mid-70s to 80s) sat under 83,000 for essentially the entire year; achieving an annual average above 83,000 for 2026 therefore requires not just matching July's 86.0 NSA peak but sustaining comparably high levels for most of the remaining five-to-seven months to offset the sub-83k first quarter — a materially higher bar than a single strong month suggests. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU53000003133640001 (cross-referenced with OFM data above) BOTTOM LINE: Washington's own state labor-market reports (OFM/ESD, seasonally adjusted) show aerospace employment running below 83,000 through at least Feb-Mar 2026 and reveal a pattern of significant downward revisions to recent months plus a recurring December seasonal dip; combined with Boeing's own caution that Rate 47 is merely "stabilizing" rather than accelerating further, rising labor costs from new union contracts, and broader signs of WA/US economic cooling, there is a credible, evidence-based case that the full calendar-year 2026 average could land at or below 83,000 even though mid-2026 monthly readings have been strong. NOT FOUND: The official BLS QCEW/CES 2025 Washington NAICS 3364 annual-average figure as a precise number; actual (not seasonally adjusted) January–February 2026 values for the specific FRED series SMU53000003133640001 used for resolution; any August–December 2026 data for that exact series; and any direct statement from BLS or Boeing addressing the 83,000 annual-average threshold itself.