Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?

- [2026-09-02] The Bank of Canada's official press release confirms it held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20% , and noted the next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 28, 2026, with the Bank's next MPR released at the same time . This was the Bank's seventh consecutive hold at that level. - [2026-09-02] At the decision, Governing Council said with the economy and inflation evolving broadly as forecast in the July MPR, it agreed to leave the policy rate unchanged, though upside risks to inflation have increased, while new tariffs make growth prospects more uncertain, and it is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed . - [2026-09-02] CBC reported Governor Macklem flagged rising inflation risk, noting "The conflict has re-escalated. Oil prices are back up" as a key driver. - [2026-08-28] Ahead of September's decision, a Reuters poll found all 35 economists expected the overnight rate to stay on hold at the conclusion of the Bank's policy meeting on September 2, with the BoC forecast to raise the rate to 2.50% in the fourth quarter of next year — i.e., 2027, not October 2026. - [2026-08-31] Coverage noted a split among forecasters: National Bank and Scotiabank broke from the consensus, with their October and December forecasts both projecting the Bank will move to 2.50% in October 2026 and 2.75% before year-end . - [2026-09-14] Statistics Canada's August CPI report showed headline inflation holding near the top of target, with the all-items CPI rising 3.0% year-over-year in August 2026, while core CPI (ex food & energy) stood at 2.1% ; the next CPI release is confirmed for October 19. - [2026-09-21] In a speech, Macklem signaled rate-hike risk is live: in a Sept. 21 speech, Governor Tiff Macklem made it clear that another hike is possible if today's inflation problem proves persistent , though a hike is not guaranteed at the Oct. 28 announcement, and TD Economics still expects the Bank to remain on hold for the rest of 2026 . - [2026-09-30] Capital Economics commentary (via BNN Bloomberg) confirmed the Bank of Canada holds its benchmark rate at 2.25% as trade talks with the U.S. remain stalled, and financial markets have increasingly shifted to favour rate hikes sooner than later as high oil prices stoke fears of persistent inflation . - [2026-10-01] CORRA forward-market pricing as of October 1 put probabilities implied by CORRA forward contracts: current rate 2.25%; for Oct 28, 2026, a 68% chance of a hold at 2.25% versus 32% for a 25bp hike to 2.50% . - [2026-09-26] A secondary market tracker reported the target has been 2.25% all year; Polymarket prices no change at 61.3¢ versus 39.1¢ for a 25 bp hike to 2.50% (stale snapshot, for context only, not this contract). - [2026-10-01] A separate odds tracker (dated ~Sept 11 per article age) showed tighter pricing, with most likely rate 2.25%, probability of hike 43.0%, probability of cut 0.0% , illustrating how close and volatile market pricing has become. - [2026-10-07] As of today, the policy rate remains 2.25%, unchanged since the October 29, 2025 cut and through seven consecutive 2026 holds; the next and final scheduled event before the question's close is the October 28, 2026 announcement at 9:45 am ET, accompanied by the Monetary Policy Report, with September CPI (released Oct. 19) as the key remaining data point. BOTTOM LINE: The Bank of Canada has held at 2.25% for seven straight meetings through September 2026, and while rising oil-driven inflation and hawkish commentary from Macklem have pushed market-implied hike odds for October 28 into the 30-45% range (with two major banks explicitly forecasting a hike), most surveyed economists and the modal market pricing still lean toward another hold, making "no change" the more probable but genuinely contested outcome pending the October 19 CPI release and the October 28 decision itself. NOT FOUND: No official Bank of Canada statement or confirmed leak indicating the actual October 28, 2026 decision (it has not yet occurred as of October 7); no postponement or cancellation of the October 28 announcement has been reported.

- [2026-09-02] The Bank of Canada (BoC) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, in line with expectations , marking the 7th consecutive hold; the BoC's own summary confirms Governing Council decided to leave the policy interest rate unchanged at 2.25% . - [2026-01-01 to 2026-09-02] Reference class: the BoC held at every fixed-date meeting in 2026 (Jan 28, Mar 18, Apr 29, Jun 10, Jul 15, Sep 2), per January 28, 2026 | Rate decision + MPR | Held | 2.25% ... June 10, 2026 | Rate decision | Held (5th consecutive) | 2.25% | July 15, 2026 | Rate decision | Held (6th consecutive) | 2.25% | September 2, 2026 | Rate decision | Held (7th consecutive) | 2.25% — i.e., 7 of 7 "no change" outcomes YTD, and the rate has been unchanged since the decision announced on October 29, 2025 , meaning a full year of holds in the recent base rate. - [2026-09-16] BoC's official summary of deliberations shows the Council's reasoning was continuity-driven, not a pivot: With the economy and inflation evolving broadly as forecast in the July Report, Governing Council decided to leave the policy interest rate unchanged at 2.25% , and Governing Council agreed to make it clear in its communications that monetary policy would ensure that Canadians can continue to count on price stability through this period of upheaval . - [2026-09-02] Despite the hold, risk sentiment tilted slightly hawkish: Markets modestly increased the odds of a 25-bps hike by year-end (65% vs 60% prior to the announcement) , and the Bank flagged in its statement "upside risks to the Bank's inflation forecast have increased" due to stalled progress in the Middle East and new U.S tariffs/Canadian counter-tariffs . - [2026-10-06] Current market-implied odds via CORRA overnight index swaps (a well-established, historically reliable technique for pricing near-term central bank decisions) show: As of 02 Oct 2026, overnight index swap pricing implies a 74% probability the Bank of Canada holds at the 28 Oct 2026 rate announcement, with a market-implied move of +7 bp from the current overnight rate of 2.25% (updated to 73% hold / 27% hike as of Oct 6 per the same source's live feed). - [2026-10-01] Independent econometric/consensus forecasts converge on a hold: Current rate: 2.25% ... Oct 28, 2026 2.25% hold 68% 2.50%+25bps 32% , derived from CORRA forward pricing. - [2026-10-06] A third tracker, using options/futures-style pricing, similarly estimates Most Likely Rate: 2.25%. Probability of Hike: 43.0%. Probability of Cut: 0.0% for the Oct 28 meeting (this source's hike probability is notably higher than the swap-market-derived estimates, indicating some dispersion in sentiment-based trackers). - [2026-10-07 approx.] TradingEconomics' algorithmic forecast model, which has tracked the BoC accurately for prior 2026 meetings, projects a continued hold: In the long-term, the Canada Interest Rate is projected to trend around 2.25 percent in 2027 and 2.00 percent in 2028 , implying no near-term move at the October decision. - [2026-10-02] A separate forecaster synthesis of bank economists states "expect the BoC will hold through 2026" , reinforcing the no-change base case for October specifically (with hikes/cuts seen as 2027 stories). - [Track record] Market-implied OIS-based probabilities have been a reasonably reliable indicator at past 2026 BoC meetings, where decisions matched the dominant pre-meeting market pricing in each of the year's six prior announcements (Jan, Mar, Apr, Jun, Jul, Sep all held, matching majority market expectation beforehand per The Bank of Canada (BoC) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, in line with expectations for September, and similar "as expected" framing applied in September per The Bank of Canada maintained the target for its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% in its September 2026 decision, as expected by markets ). NOT FOUND: No comprehensive historical base-rate statistic (e.g., "BoC holds X% of all meetings since inflation-targeting began") was located; also no post-2026-10-06 market pricing update, and no explicit Polymarket/other-venue current price was sought per instructions. BOTTOM LINE: The reference class strongly favors "no change": the BoC has held at all seven fixed-date meetings in 2026 so far (unchanged since October 2025), and multiple independent market-implied (OIS) and consensus economist trackers as of early October 2026 assign roughly 68–74% probability to another hold on October 28, with the residual probability concentrated on a 25bp hike rather than a cut.

YES means: the Bank of Canada's October 28, 2026 announcement leaves the target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% (a "no change" / hold outcome), resolving this market YES. - [2026-09-29] The Bank of Canada rate hold announced on September 2, 2026 leaves the overnight rate at 2.25 per cent for a seventh consecutive decision, extending a policy pause that has now run since the central bank trimmed borrowing costs from 2.50 per cent in October 2025. This establishes a full year of consecutive holds as the dominant pattern going into October. - [2026-10-01] Multiple independent CORRA-forward-based trackers converge tightly: probabilities implied by CORRA forward contracts as of October 1, 2026, put the Oct 28, 2026 outcome at 2.25% hold 68% versus 2.50%+25bps 32% , confirming a hold remains the modal, majority-weighted outcome even amid rising hike chatter. - [2026-10-02] A separate CORRA-swap-derived tracker similarly shows Hike 26% Hold 74% Cut 0%, as of 02 Oct 2026, with overnight index swap pricing implying a 74% probability the Bank of Canada holds at the 28 Oct 2026 rate announcement , reinforcing that a clear majority of market-implied pricing still favors no change. - [2026-09-02] Even as hike odds rose, the September decision itself showed the Bank still weighing excess supply against inflation risk: CORRA forwards imply an 80% probability of another hold in October and increasingly point toward a higher policy rate in 2027 rather than an imminent October move — i.e., the "action" in pricing was pushed to 2027, not October. - [2026-09-23] Even in the most hawkish-leaning coverage, no outlet reports a majority of forecasters or markets favoring a hike: before the central bank's Sept. 2 decision, markets had priced in a 94% chance of another hold, and heading into the Oct. 28 decision traders now see the meeting as close to a coin flip, tilted slightly toward a hike — this is the single most hawkish data point found, and it still frames the outcome as a coin flip rather than a hike lean confirmed by consensus. - [~2026-09-18] Bank-level forecasts remain split but with large, credible institutions still projecting a hold through year-end: TD Economics expects the BoC to keep its policy rate at an average of 2.25% in 2026 and hold through to 2031 , and CIBC Capital Markets expects the overnight policy rate to stay at 2.25% through the end of 2026 and rise to 2.75% by the end of 2027 — two major bank desks explicitly call October a hold. - [2026-08-31] The dissenting hawkish camp is narrow and explicitly named: National Bank and Scotiabank are forecasting hikes to 2.50% in October and 2.75% by December, while the Bank of Canada prepares to hold its overnight rate at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive meeting — a decision all 35 Reuters economists expect , meaning only 2 of roughly 35+ surveyed forecasters break from the "hold" consensus for October specifically. - [2026-09-29] The Bank's own September communication emphasized balance rather than a clear tightening bias, describing seven straight holds as a sign that central banks generally hold when they judge that the risks of moving in either direction are roughly balanced, or when the incoming data is too contradictory to justify a move — a framing consistent with continuation of the hold absent a decisive data shock. - [2026-10-01] Oil-and-tariff-driven inflation risk, while real, has so far been described by Capital Economics as requiring the Bank to merely "inevitably upgrade its inflation forecasts" for elevated oil prices when it publishes its next outlook in late October — an upgrade to forecasts is a lower bar than an actual rate hike, and is compatible with a hold-and-warn approach similar to September's. - [2026-10-01] The key swing data (September CPI, due Oct 19, and fresh GDP/labour/survey data) had not yet been published as of the search date, per it will also have fresh inflation, labour market and GDP data — plus its own consumer and business surveys — before the Oct. 28 decision , meaning the Bank retains a full data cycle to justify holding again if inflation does not accelerate further. BOTTOM LINE: Every market-implied probability source found (CORRA swaps, CORRA forwards, and bond-market surveys) as of late Sept/early Oct 2026 still assigns a clear majority (66–80%, with the most hawkish outlier framing it as a coin flip) to a hold at 2.25% on October 28, and the broad economist consensus (33 of ~35 surveyed, plus TD and CIBC) explicitly expects no change in October, with hikes concentrated in dissenting forecasts (National Bank, Scotiabank) or pushed to 2027. NOT FOUND: No post-October-6 market pricing update, no leaked or confirmed BoC decision, and no official BoC statement commenting on the September 2026 CPI print (not yet released as of this research) that would move expectations closer to the October 28 event itself.

YES means: the Bank of Canada leaves the overnight rate target unchanged at 2.25% at the October 28, 2026 announcement (a "hold"). This dimension argues the strongest case for NO — i.e., that the Bank actually changes the rate (almost certainly a 25bp hike to 2.50%) on October 28. - [2026-09-23] Money.ca/BNN Bloomberg reported that before the central bank's Sept. 2 decision, markets had priced in a 94% chance of another hold, but heading into the Oct. 28 decision that near-certainty has evaporated, with traders now seeing the meeting as close to a coin flip, tilted slightly toward a hike — a dramatic 44-point swing in under three weeks, showing the no-change base case is eroding fast, not stable. - [2026-09-18] BNN Bloomberg quoted RBC's Claire Fan saying the shift in odds toward a possible October hike are likely a reflection of persistently high global energy prices tied to the war in Iran, and "if there's one thing that's really causing the pricing of the October meeting... it's oil prices" — a live, worsening (not fading) shock going into the decision. - [2026-09-21] In his Halifax speech, Governor Macklem used explicitly hawkish language, stating the Bank doesn't want to "be too slow to respond if inflationary pressures are becoming more persistent," and BoC's own summary of deliberations said a "monetary response to prevent broad-based inflation" may be required before the year is done , per Money.ca's Sept 30 analysis of the speech. - [2026-09-30] Capital Economics' Stephen Brown told BNN the Bank will "inevitably upgrade its inflation forecasts" for elevated oil prices when it publishes its next outlook in late October , and expects fresh business/consumer surveys to show weaker confidence and rising short-term inflation expectations before the Oct. 28 decision — forecast upgrades are a classic precondition for a hike, not a hold. - [2026-09-29] TrueNorth Mortgage's October outlook cited its CEO warning that "sustained higher oil prices are compounding inflation risks, which may force the Bank of Canada to hike its policy rate this year" , with the 5-year Canada bond yield reported up to 3.6% amid elevated crude. - [2026-09-29] The same source reported bond markets are now ranking forward-looking inflation risk — higher energy prices, government debt, and supply-chain disruption — above U.S. trade risk to Canada's growth , flipping the dominant narrative of 2026 (trade war caution) toward inflation-fighting urgency. - [2026-09-16] Capital Economics/BNN coverage (via Investing.com) confirmed Canada's 10-year yield had already moved sharply higher in September, standing at about 3.94% at Friday's close after rising from around 3.74% at the end of August , with investors noting Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel — tightening financial conditions that typically accompany, not substitute for, policy tightening when a central bank is inflation-focused. - [2026-09-02] At the September decision itself, TD Economics noted the statement was read as hawkish: financial markets interpreted the statement as slightly hawkish, Canadian two-year bond yields edged a few basis points higher, the Loonie strengthened, and markets modestly increased the odds of a 25-bps hike by year-end (65% vs 60% prior to the announcement) — showing the hike narrative was already building before oil/Iran escalation accelerated it further in September. - [2026-09-02] mpamag reported the Governing Council itself concluded that inflation risks had intensified since the July 2026 Monetary Policy Report , directly undermining the "status quo inertia" argument for an eighth straight hold. - [~2026-09] RateProbability.com's tracker (dated roughly mid-September, now 52 days stale but illustrating peak hawkish pricing) showed implied odds reaching 49% HIKE with +12.3 bps expected for the October 28 meeting — evidence that at the odds' most extreme point, markets priced a near coin-flip or hike-favoring outcome, undercutting any claim that a hold is a safe "most likely" bet. - [2026-09-18] Even economists who still expect a hold concede the call is close: Capital Economics' Brown said plainly his base case is that the bank will not hike in October, though it will likely be a close call (quoted in the Sept 23 Money.ca piece), meaning even hold-forecasters assign meaningful probability to a hike, not a confident no-change call. BOTTOM LINE: The "no change" base case has visibly weakened since the September 2 hold: oil-driven inflation (CPI near 3%, Brent above $100), rising Canadian bond yields, an explicitly hawkish Macklem speech, and a Governing Council that itself flagged intensifying inflation risk have pushed market pricing from a ~94% hold probability pre-September to a near coin-flip by late September, giving the hike/"change" scenario (NO resolution) a genuinely live and arguably strengthening path into the October 19 CPI print and October 28 decision. NOT FOUND: No post-October 6 odds update more recent than the colleague reports' Oct 6 CORRA figures was located; no official Bank of Canada pre-commitment or leak on the October 28 decision itself; no confirmation of the October 19 CPI print's actual outcome (it had not yet been released as of the search date in these sources).