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Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
14%
Agent
18%
Market Price
-4.7%
Edge
61%
Confidence
119,067
Volume
1.0c
Spread
817
Days to resolution
4
Markets in event
final rationale
Mean of 5 draws (0.07, 0.09, 0.18, 0.18, 0.16). (0) No source shows the condition met: trackers (ThirstyGrid 9/19, programs.com 9/23) report no statewide moratorium bills in 2025–26, and the only statewide action is EO 26-058, which is non-qualifying (executive order, conditions incentives only). The aggregator headline claiming enactment is uncorroborated and likely spurious. (a) About 27 months remain to 12/31/2028; the 2027 session (Apr 12–Jun 10) is a constitutionally restricted fiscal session, so realistically only the spring 2028 general session (or a special session) can pass a general moratorium. (b) Status quo is No: the GOP governor and legislature are openly pro-data-center, the economic development agency recruits hyperscalers, the PSC fast-tracks large-load cases, and HB 922/HB 1206/SB 490 all died in 2026. (c) No: ratepayer/water backlash yields incentive conditions, tariffs or disclosure laws rather than a ban; the likely Republican successor elected in Nov 2027 keeps the growth posture. (d) Yes: Meta/Entergy rate disputes and aquifer concerns escalate, the 2027 elections shift the legislature, and the 2028 session passes and the new governor signs a pause on new facilities above 100 MW. Nationally no state has yet enacted a statutory statewide moratorium (Maine vetoed, NY used an EO), so a deep-red recruiting state going first is unlikely. The market's 18.5% (down from 39.5%) seems not to fully price the fiscal-session restriction and the statute-only, prohibition-by-default bar; I go below it.
price vs. prediction
market price
agent forecast at t+0
12 follow-ups
1. Planner Opus 5.5 · picks the research tools
Tools chosen:
polymarket_direct
resolution_source
polymarket_related
kalshi_related
article_search
Planner reasoning
This is a Polymarket question about Louisiana state legislation, so polymarket_direct is the price anchor and resolution_source should point at the Louisiana legislature. Related data-center moratorium markets on both venues give cross-state base rates. One targeted article search covers any Louisiana moratorium bill filings, since federal tools don't apply.
2. Research parallel tool calls + 4 web research loops (Sonnet 5) · read raw by the forecasters
at a glance
RESEARCH DIGEST (built in code: tool summaries and each report's bottom line; the forecasters read the full tool outputs and reports)
Tools
- polymarket_direct: ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?** - Current price (probability): 18.50% (live; bid 18% / ask 19%) - 7-day price change: -21.00% - 30-day price change: -21.00% - Total volume: $119,067 (USD notional) - Price range: 18.50% - 39.50% - Data points: 7 days
- resolution_source: already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=False; last_updated=unknown. The fetched page is just the Louisiana Legislature's generic Bill Search navigation/interface for various sessions; it contains no actual bill text, status, or information about any data center moratorium legislation.
- polymarket_related: Polymarket search over 2 keyword(s), kept 10 matches. keyword 'data center moratorium': 10 markets | keyword 'data center ban': 0 markets
- kalshi_related: 1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'data center moratorium': ok
- article_search: Fetched 16 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=365d). 'Louisiana legislature data center moratorium bill filed': 8 articles | 'Louisiana data center bill Meta Richland Parish legislation 2026': 8 articles
Research loops, bottom lines
- current state: As of October 7, 2026, Louisiana has no statewide data-center moratorium law or constitutional provision, no such bill pending, and a Republican governor and legislature both actively pro-data-center; the only statewide action taken (EO 26-058) is a non-qualifying executive order, and the legislature will not reconvene until April 12, 2027, leaving a narrow 2027 window (plus any 2028 session) for a reversal before the December 31, 2028 deadline.
- base rate: The national base rate for a state legislature actually enacting (via statute/constitutional provision, not EO) a statewide data center moratorium is essentially zero through 2026 despite heavy bill activity in a dozen-plus states, and Louisiana's political leadership (GOP-controlled legislature and governor) has actively opposed moratorium approaches, favoring incentive-conditioning instead; combined with a restrictive odd-year 2027 session, this outside view strongly favors "No" through 2028,
- yes case: The clearest and most procedurally realistic YES path is a 2028 general-session statutory moratorium, made more plausible if the October/November 2027 elections shift legislative or LPSC composition and if ratepayer/water backlash (already drawing a GOP lawmaker's "chirping," a Democratic Senate candidate's explicit moratorium campaign, and 417–3 federal ratepayer-protection momentum) continues to escalate before then; this path has real but still uncertain prerequisites, none of which have yet
- no case: Louisiana's own constitution effectively shields the 2027 session from a statewide, non-fiscal moratorium bill by default, compressing the realistic legislative opportunity to a single general session in spring 2028 under a still-unelected governor and a legislature that so far has filed zero statewide moratorium bills and let every related measure (HB 922, HB 1206, SB 490) die — all of which argues strongly for status-quo NO through Dec 31, 2028.
tools
| tool | status | time | items | summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket_direct | OK | 0.4s | 1 | ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?** - Current price (probability): 18.50% (live; bid 18% / ask 19%) - 7-day price change: -21.00% - 30-day price change: -21.00% - Total volume: $119,067 (USD notional) - Price range: 18.50% - 39.50 |
| resolution_source | OK | 3.3s | 1 | already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=False; last_updated=unknown. The fetched page is just the Louisiana Legislature's generic Bill Search navigation/interface for various sessions; it contains no actual bill text, status, or information about any data center moratorium legislation. |
| polymarket_related | OK | 0.7s | 10 | Polymarket search over 2 keyword(s), kept 10 matches. keyword 'data center moratorium': 10 markets | keyword 'data center ban': 0 markets |
| kalshi_related | OK | 3.9s | 1 | 1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'data center moratorium': ok |
| article_search | OK | 0.4s | 16 | Fetched 16 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=365d). 'Louisiana legislature data center moratorium bill filed': 8 articles | 'Louisiana data center bill Meta Richland Parish legislation 2026': 8 articles |
research loops
·
4/4 ok ·
15 searches ·
4 page reads
| dimension | status | time | searches | page reads | report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current state | OK | 28s | 4 | 1 | 4745 chars |
| base rate | OK | 37s | 4 | 2 | 5979 chars |
| yes case | SNIPPETS | 66s | 4 | 0 | 7059 chars · no page read; snippets only |
| no case | OK | 55s | 3 | 1 | 5165 chars |
report: current state
- [2026-01-28] New Orleans City Council (local, not statewide) adopted a one-year Interim Zoning District ban on data-center construction while the City Planning Commission drafts permanent zoning rules;
a one-year data-center construction ban via Interim Zoning District enacted 2026-01-28, with prior record carrying expiry to mid-2027
. This is local, not statewide, and does not satisfy the question's resolution criteria.
- [2026-06-01] The 2026 Regular Legislative Session adjourned with
no statewide moratorium or resource-reporting statute enacted; HB 922 (ratepayer protection), HB 1206 (water permitting and reporting), and SB 490 (private-use electrical networks) all failed to become law
.
- [2026-06-25/26] Governor Jeff Landry issued Executive Order 26-058 (Ratepayer and Community Protection Initiative); per the resolution criteria, executive orders do not qualify, and this order
adds conditions to state incentives but does not prohibit unincentivized projects or itself create a statewide siting moratorium
.
- [2026-07-14] For comparison, New York became the first state to enact a statewide data center moratorium (via executive order, not a statute), per
reporting that New York became the first state to enact a statewide moratorium in July 2026
— Louisiana was not among the states that followed with a true legislative moratorium.
- [2026-08-17 to 08-19] Caddo Parish (local) attempted a moratorium resolution on data-center tax incentives; the parish attorney advised
an ordinance, not a resolution, is required
for any binding pause.
- [2026-09-01 and 2026-09-14] Caddo Parish Commission twice rejected advancing a data-center construction pause, most recently
on 2026-09-14 after a 6–4 vote on 2026-09-01 declined to advance Resolution 53
.
- [2026-09-16/17] The Louisiana Public Service Commission unanimously let Cleco's Applied Digital-related large-load application proceed on an expedited track;
the LPSC voted unanimously to let Cleco Power's application serving Applied Digital's $3.6B Rapides Parish data center proceed without a final ALJ recommendation
— signaling continued regulatory accommodation, not restriction.
- [2026-09-19] ThirstyGrid's policy tracker states plainly:
Louisiana (statewide): No statewide moratorium proposed or enacted as of 2026
, and separately that
both chambers are Republican-controlled and the 2026 Regular Session has adjourned with no data-center special session called; no live data-center bill was identified in the delta window
.
- [2026-09-23] An independent moratorium tracker similarly lists Louisiana's only "statewide action" as the non-binding executive order:
State: Louisiana. Status: Active. Statewide action: Executive Order 26-058.
, with
Statewide moratorium bills (2025–26): None
.
- [2026-10-01] Governor Landry (R), whose term runs to January 2028, remains
opposed to a moratorium, with opposition in Louisiana described as local and utility-focused
, and his stance characterized elsewhere as
strongly pro-data-center, with LED actively recruiting hyperscalers
.
- [2027-04-12] The next regular legislative session, where any new statewide bill could be introduced, is confirmed by the Louisiana Legislature's own site:
The 2027 Regular Legislative Session will convene at noon on Monday, April 12, 2027. Final Adjournment no later than 6:00 pm on Thursday, June 10, 2027.
No statewide moratorium bill can be enacted before that session convenes (barring a gubernatorial special session, none of which has been called as of this writing).
- [2026-10-01] Prediction-market commentary (not a primary source, and excluded from this report's basis for forecasting) notes trading activity around a related 2027-deadline contract, confirming
traders see better than a one-in-five chance that Louisiana, a state aggressively
courting data centers could reverse course, but the same reporting concedes
the honest read of the public record is that no statewide moratorium has been enacted or formally introduced
.
BOTTOM LINE: As of October 7, 2026, Louisiana has no statewide data-center moratorium law or constitutional provision, no such bill pending, and a Republican governor and legislature both actively pro-data-center; the only statewide action taken (EO 26-058) is a non-qualifying executive order, and the legislature will not reconvene until April 12, 2027, leaving a narrow 2027 window (plus any 2028 session) for a reversal before the December 31, 2028 deadline.
NOT FOUND: No evidence of any statewide moratorium bill currently prefiled or scheduled for the 2027 session; no confirmation of a special session being called on data centers; no 2028 Louisiana legislative session dates were located in search results.
report: base rate
- [2026-10-01] As of market creation,
the honest read of the public record is that no statewide moratorium has been enacted or formally introduced as of October 01, 2026
in Louisiana. https://tech-insider.org/louisiana-data-center-moratorium-polymarket-odds-2026/
- [2026-07-17] Louisiana's 2026 regular session adjourned without any statewide moratorium or resource-reporting statute:
no statewide moratorium or resource-reporting statute was enacted in 2026 — the regular session adjourned June 1, and HB 922 (ratepayer protection), HB 1206 (water permitting and reporting), and SB 490 (private-use electrical networks) all failed to become law
. https://servercountry.org/policy/louisiana/
- [2026-06-25] Louisiana's governor instead used an executive order (EO 26-058) rather than statute; this would not satisfy the market's enactment requirement since
the June 25 executive order adds conditions to state incentives but does not prohibit unincentivized projects or itself create a statewide siting moratorium
. https://servercountry.org/policy/louisiana/
- [2026-07-14] Nationally, the furthest any state has gotten is New York, where the legislature passed a statutory moratorium bill but the governor opted for an executive order instead of signing it:
on June 4, 2026, both houses of the New York State Legislature passed the Responsible Data Center Development Act (S10642/A11560), which would impose a one-year moratorium on the issuance of certain permits for large data centers; the bill cleared the Senate 44-16 and the Assembly 102-39
, but
instead of signing the bill, on July 14, 2026, Governor Kathy Hochul signed the narrower Executive Order No. 62, creating the first statewide moratorium on new data centers, imposing a one-year moratorium on discretionary environmental permitting for data centers expected to draw more than 50 megawatts of power
— meaning even NY's "first-in-nation" moratorium is an EO, not a statute.
- [2026-04-24] Maine's legislature passed a true statutory moratorium bill but it was vetoed:
Maine's state legislature was the first to pass a moratorium (LD 307) on data centers rated for more than 20 megawatts until November 2027, but on April 24, 2026, Governor Janet Mills vetoed the bill
. https://www.rockinst.org/blog/updates-on-the-cloud-more-moratoriums-on-data-centers/
- [2026-03-06] As of March 2026, reporting confirmed the pattern holds nationally:
while no states have successfully enacted a moratorium, several cities and counties have banned new data center projects over the past year
. https://www.aol.com/articles/temporarily-banning-data-centers-draws-185934834.html
- [2026-06] A tracker counting bills in roughly a dozen states found only modified, non-moratorium measures enacted:
in 2026, the moratorium movement has gone from a fringe community-organizing idea to active legislation in at least 11 states and to enacted law (in modified form) in South Dakota
, and that South Dakota measure was
not a moratorium — disclosure & cost-allocation
legislation, i.e., not a true statewide ban. https://www.ailawsbystate.com/blog/data-center-moratorium-by-state-2026
- [2026-01-28] Louisiana's only enacted moratorium-type action remains local:
on January 28, the [New Orleans] City Council imposed a one-year interim zoning pause and directed the City Planning Commission to develop definitions and permanent standards
, which does not meet the "statewide" requirement. https://servercountry.org/policy/louisiana/
- [2026-04-07] Louisiana parish-level moratorium efforts have mostly failed:
St. Charles Parish rejected an eight-month data center moratorium on April 7, 2026, voting 5-3 against a pause while no large-scale data center proposal was pending
, and similarly Caddo Parish commissioners rejected advancing a moratorium resolution in August 2026.
- [2026-09-16] Louisiana's governor and Republican-controlled legislature have publicly opposed a moratorium approach, framing the state's posture as pro-growth: officials have stated
"We don't need a moratorium when we can have responsible growth,"
attributed to the governor, while the Public Service Commission has continued approving large-load interconnection matters rather than pausing them. https://www.shreveportbossieradvocate.com/news/state_politics/data-center-politics-louisiana-meta/article_14917b28-b156-50ff-b9f7-b1e56a3bd66b.html
- [2027-04-12] The next opportunity for new statutory action is Louisiana's 2027 regular session, which
convenes Noon, Monday, April 12, 2027; adjourns not later than 6:00 PM on Thursday, June 10, 2027
— but this is a fiscal-only odd-year session, and
it may only deal with fiscal (money) issues, or local or special laws
, which likely excludes a general statewide moratorium bill unless framed narrowly or taken up in the 2028 general session or a special session. https://house.louisiana.gov/
NOT FOUND: No instance of any U.S. state enacting a true statutory (not executive-order) statewide data center moratorium has been found through October 2026 — the base rate within this reference class to date is effectively zero out of roughly 12+ states that introduced such bills in 2025-2026 (Maine vetoed, NY diverted to EO, others stalled/died). No Louisiana-specific statewide moratorium bill was found to have even been formally introduced as of the market's creation date.
BOTTOM LINE: The national base rate for a state legislature actually enacting (via statute/constitutional provision, not EO) a statewide data center moratorium is essentially zero through 2026 despite heavy bill activity in a dozen-plus states, and Louisiana's political leadership (GOP-controlled legislature and governor) has actively opposed moratorium approaches, favoring incentive-conditioning instead; combined with a restrictive odd-year 2027 session, this outside view strongly favors "No" through 2028, though the 2028 general session remains a live opportunity if political pressure mounts.
report: yes case
YES means: Louisiana's legislature and Governor enact (via statute or constitutional amendment, not executive order) a law that, by default, prohibits or suspends permitting, construction, interconnection, or operation of all new data centers — or of all new data centers above the 100 MW threshold — anywhere in the state, at some point between October 7, 2026 and December 31, 2028.
- [2026-09-16] A Republican state lawmaker speaking anonymously told reporters momentum is building even if not yet acute:
"It is picking up... It has not hit the fever pitch it has hit in other (states). But I've started to see the chirping."
This is the first on-record signal of internal GOP legislative unease, a precondition for any future bill to gain traction. https://www.shreveportbossieradvocate.com/news/state_politics/data-center-politics-louisiana-meta/article_14917b28-b156-50ff-b9f7-b1e56a3bd66b.html
- [2026-09-16] The same reporting ties this unease directly to a concrete ratepayer grievance:
Landry's executive order followed a consultant's finding that a proposed Entergy transaction would effectively mean residential ratepayers footing some of the bill for Meta's data center, which Meta disputed and which led Entergy to postpone the acquisition plan.
Escalating rate disputes like this are the proximate trigger most likely to convert "chirping" into an actual bill. https://www.shreveportbossieradvocate.com/news/state_politics/data-center-politics-louisiana-meta/article_14917b28-b156-50ff-b9f7-b1e56a3bd66b.html
- [2026-10-01] A Democratic candidate for Louisiana Senate has now explicitly campaigned on a statewide pause, with
Democratic Senate candidate Jamie Davis's October 1 push citing aquifer depletion from Meta's expanding Hyperion project — the first identified elected-office candidate publicly advocating a statewide moratorium, rather than only local officials or anonymous legislators. https://polymarket.com/event/louisiana-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929/will-louisiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2026
- [2026-09-16] Federal momentum is reinforcing state-level pressure: the Ratepayer Protection Act
passed the House 417–3 on September 16, 2026 — the first data center bill to clear a chamber of Congress
, with Louisiana's own Rep. Troy Carter voting for it and stating
"this isn't Washington dictating outcomes to Louisiana... It sets a federal standard for state utility commissions to consider, then use their own judgement to decide whether and how to apply it."
This signals bipartisan Louisiana federal delegation engagement on data-center ratepayer harms that could translate into state action. https://www.electricchoice.com/datacenters/moratoriums/ ; https://thehill.com/policy/technology/5983931-house-advances-ratepayer-protection-act/
- [2026-10-06] The single most plausible statutory path runs through Louisiana's 2028 Regular Session: unlike the fiscal-only 2027 odd-year session (limited to budget/revenue/appropriations), the Louisiana Constitution provides that
all regular sessions convening in even-numbered years shall be general in nature and shall convene at noon on the second Monday in March, meeting for not more than sixty legislative days
— meaning a broad, non-fiscal statewide moratorium bill is procedurally viable for the first time only in the 2028 general session, roughly March–May 2028, still nine-plus months before the December 31, 2028 deadline. https://legis.la.gov/legis/LawPrint.aspx?d=206416
- [2026-10-06] That 2028 session will follow Louisiana's October/November 2027 statewide elections, in which
Landry and state lawmakers are up for reelection in 2027, with a political science professor noting Louisiana may simply be "a year behind" the rest of the country
— implying the electoral cycle could flip enough seats or pressure incumbents on data-center ratepayer/water issues before the decisive 2028 session. https://www.shreveportbossieradvocate.com/news/state_politics/data-center-politics-louisiana-meta/article_14917b28-b156-50ff-b9f7-b1e56a3bd66b.html
- [2026-10-06] A parallel regulatory lever that could precede or pressure a legislative moratorium:
the 2026-11-03 general election fills LPSC District 1 (open; Skrmetta term-limited) and District 5, determining the 2027 majority that rules on large-load tariffs and Hyperion Phase 2 cost allocation
— a less pro-industry LPSC majority could amplify political cover for legislators to act in 2028. https://thirstygrid.com/la/policy
- [2026-10-02] National peer-state momentum continues to grow the reference class Louisiana could join: a tracker counts
New York became the first state to enact a statewide moratorium in July 2026, and since then eleven more governors — in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Kentucky, Ohio, Texas, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Nebraska, and Louisiana — have signed executive orders or directives
, with the same tracker classifying
New York, Texas, and Oregon as having enacted "true moratoriums" pausing permits, grid connections, or state land use
, showing the bar Louisiana would need to clear is being cleared elsewhere via gubernatorial action even without full legislatures acting — a template Louisiana's governor could follow if political cost of inaction rises enough by 2028 (though an EO alone would not satisfy this market's statutory requirement).
- [2026-10-06] Procedurally, nothing prevents a true statewide moratorium bill from being introduced in the 2027 fiscal session via the constitutionally available two-thirds suspension-of-rules mechanism used historically for non-fiscal matters, meaning a 2027 attempt (not just 2028) remains a live, if harder, pathway if ratepayer/water backlash intensifies before April 12, 2027. https://house.louisiana.gov/
- [2026-10-05] Local bans are also multiplying in form even as they fail to pass as moratoria outright: New Orleans' interim zoning ban, Caddo Parish's repeated resolution attempts, and St. Charles Parish's rejected proposal all demonstrate an active, broadening local organizing base that state legislators can draw language and political cover from when drafting a 2027/2028 statewide bill. https://thirstygrid.com/la/policy
BOTTOM LINE: The clearest and most procedurally realistic YES path is a 2028 general-session statutory moratorium, made more plausible if the October/November 2027 elections shift legislative or LPSC composition and if ratepayer/water backlash (already drawing a GOP lawmaker's "chirping," a Democratic Senate candidate's explicit moratorium campaign, and 417–3 federal ratepayer-protection momentum) continues to escalate before then; this path has real but still uncertain prerequisites, none of which have yet occurred.
NOT FOUND: No confirmed 2028 Louisiana legislative session convening date (only the general pattern of "second Monday in March" could be located); no evidence of any legislator having announced intent to prefile a statewide moratorium bill for 2027 or 2028; no polling on Louisiana voter support for a moratorium.
report: no case
YES means: Louisiana's Governor signs (or the legislature overrides a veto of, or voters approve via referendum) a statute or constitutional provision that imposes a mandatory, statewide prohibition/suspension on new data-center approval, permitting, construction, interconnection, or operation (or on all facilities above 100MW), with enactment dated on or before 2028-12-31.
- [2026-10-07] Louisiana's Constitution (Art. III §2(A)(4)(b)) makes the 2027 session — the only regular session before 2028 — a restricted "fiscal" session: in odd-numbered years, "no matter intended to have the effect of law... shall be introduced or considered unless its object is" an appropriation, tax, fee, or bond measure, so a general data-center moratorium bill is barred by default. https://law.justia.com/constitution/louisiana/Article3.html
- [2026-10-07] That same constitutional provision only lets a non-fiscal bill (like a moratorium) be heard in 2027 if it is pre-filed by the statutory prefile deadline and falls within a strict five-bill-per-member cap, or if it is a locally-advertised "local or special law" — neither path fits a statewide moratorium cleanly, adding a real procedural filter even if a sponsor tries. https://law.justia.com/constitution/louisiana/Article3.html
- [2026-10-07] The 2027 Regular Session itself is short — convening noon April 12, 2027 and capped at 45 legislative days / 60 calendar days, ending by June 10, 2027 — leaving a narrow window even if a moratorium bill clears the subject-matter hurdle. https://house.louisiana.gov/
- [2026-09-19] Independent trackers confirm zero statewide moratorium bills have even been filed in Louisiana to date: "Statewide moratorium bills (2025–26): None," with Louisiana's only "statewide action" being the non-qualifying Executive Order 26-058. https://programs.com/resources/data-center-moratoriums-tracker/
- [2026-09-29] One industry tracker lists Louisiana's governor among twelve who "have signed executive orders or directives" rather than statutes, grouping Louisiana explicitly with the EO-only cohort distinct from any state that has passed binding legislation. https://www.electricchoice.com/datacenters/moratoriums/
- [2026-10-04] A clickbait-style aggregator headline reading "Louisiana Enacts Data Center Moratorium 20260929" appears in search results, but it is uncorroborated by any other tracker, legislative record, or news outlet found, and is best treated as an unverified/likely spurious artifact rather than evidence of enactment. https://cryptobriefing.com/global-opposition-to-data-centers-rises-us-states-face-potential-moratoriums/
- [2026-10-07] For the real legislative path, the first unrestricted ("general") session before the deadline is the 2028 Regular Session, a general-nature even-year session (per Art. III §2(A)(3)(a), convening "at noon on the last Monday in March" under the current constitutional language, with up to 60 legislative days) — meaning only one full general session (2028) exists before Dec 31, 2028 to pass a true moratorium from scratch. https://law.justia.com/constitution/louisiana/Article3.html
- [2026-10-07] Even if the 2028 session passed such a bill, Louisiana's veto-override threshold is a two-thirds vote of elected members in each house in a dedicated veto session, a high bar given Gov. Landry's (term to Jan. 2028) explicit opposition and the GOP's historically unified pro-growth posture on data centers. https://law.justia.com/constitution/louisiana/Article3.html
- [2026-10-07] Louisiana's next gubernatorial election is Nov. 20, 2027, with inauguration in Jan. 2028 — so whoever leads the 2028 session is an unknown successor, but the legislature itself (both chambers Republican-controlled) carries over, and no incumbent legislative leader has broken from the pro-growth consensus as of the market's creation. https://ballotpedia.org/Louisiana_State_Legislature
- [2026-10-01] Even market-adjacent commentary on the sibling Dec. 31, 2027 contract (a different, earlier-dated question) concedes "the honest read of the public record is that no statewide moratorium has been enacted or formally introduced," underscoring that any 2028 outcome would have to start from zero, not from a bill already advanced. https://tech-insider.org/louisiana-data-center-moratorium-polymarket-odds-2026/
BOTTOM LINE: Louisiana's own constitution effectively shields the 2027 session from a statewide, non-fiscal moratorium bill by default, compressing the realistic legislative opportunity to a single general session in spring 2028 under a still-unelected governor and a legislature that so far has filed zero statewide moratorium bills and let every related measure (HB 922, HB 1206, SB 490) die — all of which argues strongly for status-quo NO through Dec 31, 2028.
NOT FOUND: No statewide moratorium bill prefiled or scheduled for 2027 or 2028; no official confirmation or retraction of the "Louisiana Enacts Data Center Moratorium 20260929" headline from any primary Louisiana government source; no 2028 Louisiana legislative session specific convening date yet published by the Legislature (only the general constitutional formula).
3. Forecasters 5 draws · Opus 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + GPT-5.6 Sol · plain mean
claude-opus-5-5 · high effort
60% conf
| Yes | 7% |
| No | 93% |
(0) No source shows the condition met: trackers (ThirstyGrid 9/19, programs.com 9/23) report no statewide moratorium bills in 2025–26, and the only statewide action is EO 26-058, which is non-qualifying (executive order, conditions incentives only). The aggregator headline claiming enactment is uncorroborated and likely spurious. (a) About 27 months remain to 12/31/2028; the 2027 session (Apr 12–Jun 10) is a constitutionally restricted fiscal session, so realistically only the spring 2028 general session (or a special session) can pass a general moratorium. (b) Status quo is No: the GOP governor and legislature are openly pro-data-center, the economic development agency recruits hyperscalers, the PSC fast-tracks large-load cases, and HB 922/HB 1206/SB 490 all died in 2026. (c) No: ratepayer/water backlash yields incentive conditions, tariffs or disclosure laws rather than a ban; the likely Republican successor elected in Nov 2027 keeps the growth posture. (d) Yes: Meta/Entergy rate disputes and aquifer concerns escalate, the 2027 elections shift the legislature, and the 2028 session passes and the new governor signs a pause on new facilities above 100 MW. Nationally no state has yet enacted a statutory statewide moratorium (Maine vetoed, NY used an EO), so a deep-red recruiting state going first is unlikely. The market's 18.5% (down from 39.5%) seems not to fully price the fiscal-session restriction and the statute-only, prohibition-by-default bar; I go below it.
claude-opus-5-5 · high effort
62% conf
| Yes | 9% |
| No | 91% |
(0) Not met. Trackers dated 2026-09-19 and 2026-09-23 list Louisiana with no statewide moratorium bills in 2025–26. The only statewide action is Gov. Landry's EO 26-058, which an executive order cannot satisfy under the rules and which only conditions incentives anyway. The lone 'Louisiana Enacts Data Center Moratorium' headline is an uncorroborated aggregator artifact.
(a) About 27 months remain to Dec 31, 2028. The 2027 session (Apr 12–Jun 10) is constitutionally limited to fiscal matters, so the only realistic general-session opportunity is spring 2028, plus any special session.
(b) Status quo is No. The legislature is Republican-controlled and Landry has explicitly opposed a moratorium. The PSC is fast-tracking large-load approvals, and every related 2026 bill (HB 922, HB 1206, SB 490) died.
(c) No scenario: the 2027 elections produce another pro-growth Republican governor and legislature. The 2028 session addresses ratepayer and water concerns through cost-allocation or disclosure rules rather than a default prohibition, the same pattern seen nationally (South Dakota, EO-only states).
(d) Yes scenario: Meta/Entergy rate disputes and aquifer worries escalate, and the GOP 'chirping' grows into a populist backlash during the 2027 campaign. A new governor then signs a temporary moratorium on facilities above 100 MW in the 2028 session.
The national base rate for statutory state moratoria is effectively zero so far: Maine's was vetoed and New York diverted to an executive order. I anchor on Polymarket's 18.5%, which has already fallen from 39.5%. I shade lower given Louisiana's strongly pro-data-center politics and the procedural compression into a single 2028 general session, while keeping some weight on fast-moving national backlash over two years.
gpt-6-astra · high effort
59% conf
| Yes | 18% |
| No | 82% |
I retain Polymarket's live 18.5% YES anchor (18% bid/19% ask), because the research provides no clearly verified, unpriced information warranting a departure. As of October 7, no qualifying enactment is documented: September trackers report no statewide moratorium bill, although the official Louisiana bill-search fetch returned only a search interface and therefore does not independently establish absence. About 27 months remain until December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, encompassing the 2027 and 2028 regular sessions. If nothing changes, No wins: Executive Order 26-058 and New Orleans' local pause fail the statutory and statewide requirements. A No scenario is that Landry's pro-development posture and continued regulatory accommodation—illustrated by the September expedited Cleco proceeding—persist, while backlash produces only ratepayer safeguards, incentive restrictions, or local pauses. A Yes scenario is that electricity-cost and water disputes intensify around the 2027 elections, prompting enactment before the deadline of a mandatory statewide suspension covering all new facilities above 100 MW, potentially with existing projects grandfathered. Maine's reported veto and New York's executive-order route show why political momentum need not produce qualifying enactment, but I also discount the reports' overstated 2027 procedural blockade because their own constitutional evidence identifies a limited allowance for prefiled non-fiscal bills. The incomplete official-source check and conflicting procedural claims limit confidence; an official qualifying bill with legislative leadership backing would materially raise my forecast.
gpt-6-astra · high effort
58% conf
| Yes | 18% |
| No | 82% |
I retain Polymarket's live 18.5% Yes anchor (18% bid, 19% ask), because the research provides no sufficiently verified, overlooked information to justify moving away from it. As of October 7, 2026, no qualifying enactment is documented: September trackers report no statewide bill, although the official Louisiana Bill Search retrieval is merely a navigation shell, so I cannot treat the negative search as conclusive verification. Approximately 27 months remain until December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, during which Louisiana must enact a mandatory statutory or constitutional statewide suspension covering the facilities specified in the rules. If nothing changes, No wins: Executive Order 26-058 conditions incentives rather than imposing a qualifying statutory prohibition, and New Orleans's construction pause is local. A plausible No scenario is continued pro-development leadership, consistent with the September 16–17 reports of expedited Cleco proceedings, with public concerns addressed through ratepayer protections, incentive conditions, or executive action that would not satisfy this market. A plausible Yes scenario is escalating electricity-cost or water disputes—the September 16 Advocate reporting identifies ratepayer controversy and emerging Republican unease—creating electoral pressure in 2027 and producing a temporary statutory pause in 2028, potentially grandfathering existing projects. I discount the reports' stronger procedural objections because the cited constitution allows limited prefiled non-fiscal bills in 2027, while their conflicting session-date and electoral-turnover claims further weaken that argument. Maine's reported April veto illustrates the gap between legislative momentum and enactment, but the long remaining horizon keeps Yes material; incomplete official verification and reliance on secondary trackers limit my confidence.
gpt-5.6-sol · high effort
68% conf
| Yes | 16% |
| No | 84% |
(0) The condition is not documented as already met: the official Louisiana Legislature fetch is only a generic search page, while the September 2026 ThirstyGrid and independent tracker reports find no statewide moratorium bill or law, and Executive Order 26-058 does not qualify under the rules. (a) About 816 days remain until December 31, 2028, but the restricted 2027 fiscal session offers a difficult route, leaving the spring 2028 general session as the principal opportunity. (b) If nothing changes, the market resolves No because Louisiana currently has no qualifying measure pending and its governor, Republican legislature, and utility regulators have generally accommodated data-center development. (c) A No scenario is that ratepayer and water concerns produce only incentive conditions, tariffs, reporting rules, or local pauses, while no statewide prohibition clears the legislature in 2028. (d) A Yes scenario is that the 2027 elections produce a more receptive governor or legislative coalition and escalating Hyperion-related cost or water disputes prompt enactment in 2028 of a temporary statewide suspension covering facilities above 100 MW. The 18.5% Polymarket Yes price is the anchor, but I move modestly lower because the restrictive 2027 procedure, absence of any filed bill, failure of weaker 2026 measures, and effectively zero national base rate for qualifying statutory enactments appear collectively underweighted. The long horizon, an unknown 2028 governor, and the non-substantive official-source fetch prevent stronger conviction or a more aggressive discount.
4. Final plain mean of 5 draws
14%
(61% confidence)
Yes: 14%
No: 86%
Mean of 5 draws (0.07, 0.09, 0.18, 0.18, 0.16). (0) No source shows the condition met: trackers (ThirstyGrid 9/19, programs.com 9/23) report no statewide moratorium bills in 2025–26, and the only statewide action is EO 26-058, which is non-qualifying (executive order, conditions incentives only). The aggregator headline claiming enactment is uncorroborated and likely spurious. (a) About 27 months remain to 12/31/2028; the 2027 session (Apr 12–Jun 10) is a constitutionally restricted fiscal session, so realistically only the spring 2028 general session (or a special session) can pass a general moratorium. (b) Status quo is No: the GOP governor and legislature are openly pro-data-center, the economic development agency recruits hyperscalers, the PSC fast-tracks large-load cases, and HB 922/HB 1206/SB 490 all died in 2026. (c) No: ratepayer/water backlash yields incentive conditions, tariffs or disclosure laws rather than a ban; the likely Republican successor elected in Nov 2027 keeps the growth posture. (d) Yes: Meta/Entergy rate disputes and aquifer concerns escalate, the 2027 elections shift the legislature, and the 2028 session passes and the new governor signs a pause on new facilities above 100 MW. Nationally no state has yet enacted a statutory statewide moratorium (Maine vetoed, NY used an EO), so a deep-red recruiting state going first is unlikely. The market's 18.5% (down from 39.5%) seems not to fully price the fiscal-session restriction and the statute-only, prohibition-by-default bar; I go below it.
Pipeline Timing
Total pipeline time: 147.6s
Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.