Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 3 in 2026?

- [2026-07-14] New York Governor Hochul signed Executive Order 62, directing DEC to hold incomplete discretionary permits for data centers of 50 MW or more until DPS finishes a generic environmental impact statement, with local permits not covered and manufacturing, research, education, or medical facilities exempt . This is the confirmed Count=1 (New York) baseline for the question. Source: https://dcmap.us/insights/policy/ - [2026-04-24] Maine Governor Janet Mills vetoed LD 307, which would have made Maine the bill, stating that she supports a temporary moratorium and would have signed the bill if it included an exemption for the ongoing development already occurring at the site of the former Androscoggin Mill in the Town of Jay — so Maine does NOT count toward the total. Source: https://www.rockinst.org/blog/updates-on-the-cloud-more-moratoriums-on-data-centers/ - [2026-07-28/2026-08-11] Brookings (updated through mid-August) confirms New York recently became the first state to impose a moratorium through executive order... New York was not the first state to advance a moratorium; earlier this year, Maine's legislature approved a measure... but it was ultimately vetoed — i.e., as of mid-August 2026, NY remained the only enacted statewide moratorium. Source: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/data-center-moratoriums-are-not-a-substitute-for-oversight/ - [2026-08-18] Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro signed Executive Order 2026-05, but this is a conditional-permitting measure rather than an outright pause: it directs agencies to require a binding GRID commitment before reviewing state data-center permits and instructs Revenue to condition the Computer Data Center Equipment sales-and-use exemption on GRID compliance — likely does not meet the "prohibits or suspends" bar in the resolution criteria. Source: https://dcmap.us/insights/policy/ - [2026-07-21] Nebraska Governor Pillen's Executive Order 26-17 ended tax-incentive access for new data centers, but explicitly ending access to ImagiNE Nebraska Act tax incentives for new data-center applications... The governor said it is not a construction ban — does not qualify. Source: https://dcmap.us/insights/policy/ - [2026-08-03] Texas Governor Abbott directed PUCT/ERCOT to audit all data center projects in the interconnection queue before approving any new grid connections , and ERCOT suspended Batch Zero Large Load classification notifications . Source: https://www.troutman.com/insights/texas-hits-pause-on-data-center-grid-connections-amid-growing-oversight-push/ - [2026-09-21] Abbott escalated by ordering the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality to pause permits for new data centers until state regulators complete an audit of those projects , with the directive that no other state agency shall move forward with regulatory approvals related to data centers until this information is acquired... I direct the TCEQ to pause the issuance of all permits related to data center projects until ERCOT completes its review . This is the strongest current candidate for a second qualifying state. Source: https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/energy-environment/2026/09/21/562389/ - [2026-09-22] Reporting notes a limit on the Texas pause's scope: ERCOT said it only had the authority to stop grid connections for data centers requesting at least 75 megawatts of power... Smaller data centers, as well as projects that would not need to connect to the ERCOT grid because they were building their own power plants, were not included in the pause , and parts of the state outside ERCOT's grid are unaffected. Source: https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/texas-news/texas-pauses-data-center-permits-as-abbott-orders-industry-audits/ - [2026-10-19] The TCEQ is required to report back to Abbott on permitting decisions by this date, a milestone that could reveal whether the Texas pause continues, is narrowed, or lifts before year-end. Source: https://www.aol.com/articles/gov-abbott-orders-pause-data-205743000.html (per order text) - [2026-09-26] MultiState's tracker (updated ~12 days ago) states State-level moratorium bills have been introduced in 11 states in 2026 but face resistance; meanwhile, dozens of municipalities have moved ahead with local construction pauses, shifting the center of gravity toward local government action , implying no additional state besides NY (and arguably TX) had passed binding statewide action by late September 2026. Source: https://www.multistate.us/resources/state-data-center-policy-101 - [2026-08 (undated, "Updated August 2026")] The dcmap.us statewide tracker lists 22 statewide actions across many states, but the large majority are tax-incentive pauses, rate-class/cost-allocation laws, or study mandates (Illinois, Ohio, Arizona, Oklahoma, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Georgia, etc.) — none of which the tracker itself classifies as a construction/permitting moratorium besides New York. Source: https://dcmap.us/insights/policy/ BOTTOM LINE: As of October 7, 2026, only one state (New York) has a confirmed, binding statewide data-center moratorium under this question's criteria; Maine's attempt was vetoed, and dozens of other state-level bills remain introduced/stalled or address only taxes, rates, or studies rather than suspending permitting. Texas's escalating TCEQ/ERCOT permit pause (Aug–Sept 2026) is the most plausible candidate for a second qualifying state but has partial scope (ERCOT-connected, ≥75 MW loads) and an Oct. 19 reporting checkpoint that could resolve its status before year-end; no third state has emerged, so reaching the "at least 3" threshold by year-end would require at least two more states to formally adopt qualifying measures in the next ~12 weeks. NOT FOUND: No evidence of a second or third state having formally enacted (not merely introduced or threatened) a binding, qualifying statewide moratorium or prohibition on data-center permitting/construction/operation beyond New York and the contested Texas TCEQ pause; no confirmation of how Kalshi/the market itself would score the Texas action; no post-October 7 update on the TCEQ's Oct. 19 report or on Virginia, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Maryland, Michigan, or other pending state bills advancing to enactment.

- [2026-02-20] More than 300 state data-center bills were filed across 30+ states within six weeks of the 2026 legislative sessions opening, with more than 300 state data center legislation bills filed across 30+ states in just six weeks , yet only a small fraction targeted outright moratoria. (multistate.us) - [2026-09-15] NCSL's authoritative tracker ("Which States Are Banning Data Centers?") lists 16 states that have considered moratorium-style bills in the 2025–2026 cycle, but of these only New York reached "Passed Legislature" status — the rest sit at Introduced, Failed, Vetoed, or Continued, with zero marked "Enacted" as state law. https://www.ncsl.org/fiscal/which-states-are-banning-data-centers - [2026-04-24] Maine's LD 307 (a 20 MW moratorium) is the closest any other state came to a binding statewide pause, but Governor Janet Mills vetoed the bill, stating that she supports a temporary moratorium and would have signed it if it included an exemption for the ongoing development at the former Androscoggin Mill site . (rockinst.org) - [2026-06-05] New York's legislature passed the Responsible Data Center Development Act, with Earthjustice noting New York is one step closer to becoming first state in the nation to hit pause on building new AI data centers ; this took roughly five months from bill introduction (Feb 2026) to passage (June 2026), then over a month more to executive action (EO 62, July 14). https://earthjustice.org/press/2026/nys-legislature-passes-data-center-moratorium - [2026-07-01] DLA Piper reported that the New York State Legislature has passed the Responsible Data Center Development Act, imposing a one-year moratorium on state permits for new large data centers with peak demand of 20 megawatts or more , but if the bill is signed by Governor Kathy Hochul, who has not yet announced a position, New York would become the first state to enact a statewide data-center moratorium — illustrating that even a passed bill faced gubernatorial uncertainty before counting (the question's baseline instead credits NY's July 14 EO 62, not the legislative bill). - [2026-09-15] Of the 16 state bills NCSL tracks, the breakdown by status is: Introduced (Delaware, Georgia, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Vermont), Failed (Maryland, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Wisconsin), Vetoed (Maine), Continued (Virginia), Passed Legislature (New York) — a failure/non-enactment rate of roughly 75-80% for formal moratorium bills this cycle. https://www.ncsl.org/fiscal/which-states-are-banning-data-centers - [2026-09-24] Newsweek's roundup confirms New York became the first state to impose a one-year statewide moratorium on new hyperscale data centers... the most significant statewide pause among the states tracked by NCSL , while noting Delaware, Georgia, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Vermont have all introduced legislation that would temporarily halt data-center approvals or construction... but the bills still remain at various stages in the legislative process — i.e., none enacted as of late September. - [2026-09-24] Instead of binding moratoria, several governors have pivoted to softer "pause-and-study" executive actions that may or may not meet the question's qualifying bar: Newsweek reports Maryland's governor signed an EO creating a review task force (not a blanket permit suspension) while Texas is now operating under Abbott's executive pause on state permits while its grid and water reviews proceed . - [2026-09-28] Newsweek states explicitly that New York became the first state to impose a one-year statewide moratorium... the most significant statewide pause among the states tracked by NCSL , implying that as of the article's publication (just over a week before this report), independent trackers still counted only one state as having a binding statewide moratorium in force. - [2026-06-08] Good Jobs First and Rock Institute trackers both describe this as a wave of *bills* (11–14 states) rather than enacted law, with Rock Institute noting as of June 2026, 14 states have considered or are considering a moratorium on data centers, meaning a temporary pause on their construction — language of "considering," not "adopting." - [2026-10-06 (page update)] MultiState's tracker, updated within the last two weeks, states state-level moratorium bills have been introduced in 11 states in 2026 but face resistance; meanwhile, dozens of municipalities have moved ahead with local construction pauses, shifting the center of gravity toward local government action — underscoring that the political energy for binding pauses has concentrated at the local/county level rather than producing additional state-level enactments. BOTTOM LINE: The base rate for "bill introduced → binding statewide moratorium enacted" in this policy area has been very low in 2026: of roughly 14–16 states that formally considered moratorium legislation, only New York actually reached a binding, operative measure (via executive order, after legislative passage stalled on the governor's desk); every other comparable bill failed, was vetoed, or remains pending, and newer gubernatorial actions (Maryland, Texas) have trended toward review/audit frameworks rather than outright permitting bans. This outside-view pattern — roughly 1-in-15 "introduced" measures converting to an enacted, binding state moratorium within a single year — suggests reaching a count of 3 by year-end 2026 would require an unusually fast acceleration beyond the historical conversion rate observed so far this cycle. NOT FOUND: No evidence was found of any additional state (beyond New York) having actually finalized/enacted a binding statewide data-center moratorium as of the most recent trackers (NCSL, updated 2026-09-15; Newsweek, updated 2026-09-28); no comprehensive multi-year (pre-2026) historical base rate specifically for "data-center moratoria" was available since this is a novel policy area with no pre-2025 precedent to draw a longer-run historical conversion rate from.

YES means: at least three U.S. states have, by Dec 31 2026, each formally adopted a binding law, executive order, regulation, or agency order that expressly targets data centers and prohibits or suspends a material permitting/construction/operation pathway (New York already counts; two more such states would be needed). - [2026-09-21] Texas Governor Abbott's directive is broader than earlier reported: it orders TCEQ to halt all permits sought by data centers until ERCOT completes its audit, with no state agency allowed to move forward with regulatory approvals related to data center development until that information is acquired , and legal analyses confirm the freeze represents a statewide, multi-agency permitting standstill spanning power, water, and environmental approvals, instructing TCEQ to pause the issuance of all pending and new permits for data center projects , with coverage extending to islanded/behind-the-meter facilities statewide, not just ERCOT-connected loads (https://www.foley.com/insights/publications/2026/09/texas-governor-abbott-directs-tceq-to-freeze-all-data-center-permits-in-a-whole-of-government-action/). - [2026-09-21] A separate tracker independently frames Texas as now having an enacted statewide restriction comparable to New York's, noting the TCEQ order halts permits "including environmental permits and even fully 'islanded' facilities running on behind-the-meter generation" (https://www.datacenterbans.com/). - [2026-10-01] Legal commentary cautions the Texas pause is agency guidance rather than enacted law, stating the most immediate challenge is not a newly enacted prohibition on data center development... but delay and uncertainty over when TCEQ will resume issuing project authorizations — a framing that could cut either way on whether the market counts it as "formally adopted." - [2026-09-08] Massachusetts Governor Healey signed Executive Order 658, under which state permitting agencies may not issue permits or authorizations for new or expanded data center projects exceeding 25 megawatts of peak electricity demand unless developers meet the state's responsible-development framework and submit a community benefits agreement — a conditional suspension of the permitting pathway that a literal reading of "suspends a material governmental approval... pathway" could capture. - [2026-09-11] However, local Massachusetts reporting stresses the order's limits: nothing in the order pauses or prohibits construction... it creates no freestanding municipal veto. The order encourages; it does not require , which weakens the case that EO 658 is "binding" in the sense NY's EO 62 is. - [2026-09-21] California Governor Newsom signed a seven-bill package that a tracker groups with Texas and Massachusetts as the third of "the country's largest economies" to now impose statewide restrictions, but the bills themselves are transparency and regulatory control over data centers' electricity use, water consumption, and land-use impacts rather than a permit suspension — a weak candidate unless specific provisions are later shown to block approvals outright. - [2026-09-18] Virginia Governor Spanberger signed Executive Order 22 creating a "Data Center Accountability Framework" and designating a groundwater area as a cooling-water scarcity zone, per the October 5 tracker update — a potential fourth candidate worth monitoring, though not yet confirmed as a permit suspension (https://www.datacenterbans.com/). - [2026-10-05] The same tracker's AI summary shows momentum concentrated at the local level (20 active local bans/moratoriums, 7 advancing, 15 under discussion) while statewide action remains limited to the NY/TX/MA/CA/VA cluster described above, with New York's Responsible Data Center Development Act still pending on Hochul's desk with a December 31 deadline — a potential second NY-origin qualifying action if signed (https://www.datacenterbans.com/). - [2026-09-21] Oklahoma's SB 1488 (100 MW moratorium to 2029) and South Dakota's SB 232 (hyperscale moratorium) both failed to pass as moratoria — Oklahoma's died at sine-die and South Dakota substituted a non-moratorium bill (SB 135) — removing two previously plausible paths to a third state (https://servercountry.org/policy/oklahoma/; https://www.multistate.us/insider/2026/5/7/voters-target-data-centers-with-local-and-statewide-ballot-measures). BOTTOM LINE: The clearest path to YES is Texas being scored as qualifying state #2 given the breadth of its September 21 TCEQ permit freeze, combined with either New York's pending Responsible Data Center Development Act being signed or Massachusetts's EO 658 being read literally as "suspending" a permitting pathway for non-compliant projects — any one of which would bring the count to 3 before year-end, though each candidate carries real ambiguity (Texas as agency guidance vs. enacted law; Massachusetts as conditional rather than a blanket suspension) that could just as easily keep the final count at 1 or 2. NOT FOUND: No confirmation of how the market/resolution body will classify Texas's TCEQ pause, Massachusetts's EO 658, or California's bill package against the specific "prohibits or suspends" test; no outcome yet of the Texas TCEQ's Oct. 19 compliance report; no confirmation of whether Hochul has signed or will sign New York's Responsible Data Center Development Act before its Dec. 31 deadline; no evidence of any additional (fourth) state beyond NY/TX/MA/CA/VA moving toward a qualifying binding measure.

YES means: at least three U.S. states formally adopt a binding, qualifying state-level data-center moratorium (per the contract's technical definition) by year-end 2026; the dimension below argues for NO (fewer than three). - [2026-09-15] NCSL's authoritative tracker still lists New York as the only state at "Passed Legislature" status among 16 tracked moratorium bills; all others sit at Introduced, Failed, Vetoed, or Continued status, with Virginia's HB1515 marked "Continued" rather than enacted — confirming no second legislatively-enacted state existed as of mid-September. Source: ncsl.org/fiscal/which-states-are-banning-data-centers - [2026-10-06] MultiState's legislative calendar confirms most 2026 regular sessions have already adjourned sine die well before Q4 (e.g., California Sept 1, Illinois May 31, Delaware June 30, Pennsylvania Nov 30), and that bills generally do NOT carry over from 2026 into 2027 in most states, meaning the legislative pathway to a new moratorium is largely closed for the remainder of 2026 — only a handful of states (e.g., Pennsylvania through Nov 30, Illinois' veto session Nov 17–Dec 3) retain any live floor action window. Source: multistate.us/resources/2026-legislative-session-dates - [2026-10-01] Legal analysis of Texas's TCEQ permit freeze flags a direct legal-authority challenge: a state watchdog quoted saying "It's doubtful that TCEQ can legally pause permitting without legislative action," and that without legislative backing "today's letter is just more words" — raising the possibility the Texas action could be invalidated, narrowed, or deemed non-binding/non-"legally operative" before it can be credited as a second qualifying state. Source: san.com/cc/the-future-of-texas-data-center-rush-just-got-a-lot-more-complicated - [2026-10-01] Separately, legal commentary stresses that as of Oct. 1 "the most immediate challenge is not a newly enacted prohibition on data center development" but rather delay/uncertainty, and that the Oct. 19 TCEQ report is merely a compliance update, not a guaranteed continuation or formalization of the pause. Source: natlawreview.com/article/texas-pauses-all-environmental-permitting-data-centers - [2026-10-07 reported] Multiple law-firm summaries confirm the Texas freeze has a built-in dependency: it lasts only "until ERCOT completes its review," expected to publish findings "on or before December 10, 2026" — meaning the pause could lift (and arguably never "become legally operative" as a true prohibition) before year-end, undercutting its qualification as a second state even if it is ultimately counted. Source: troutman.com/insights/governor-abbott-directs-tceq-to-halt-all-data-center-permits-pending-ercot-twdb-audits - [2026-09-29 (page, "9 days ago")] Independent trackers (datacenterbans.com, savrn.com) that catalogue dozens of local/county moratoria explicitly classify almost all of this fall's new actions (Charlotte, Statesville, Denver, Broomfield, Palm Beach County, Leon County, Humboldt County, Calexico, Coachella, etc.) as municipal or county-level, not statewide — reinforcing that the 2026 moratorium wave, confirmed as ongoing in October, is concentrated at the local level and explicitly excluded by the resolution criteria's "local measures ... do not qualify" clause. - [2026-04-24] Maine's precedent remains the clearest prior near-miss: Gov. Mills vetoed LD 307 specifically over a narrow site-exemption dispute, not opposition to the moratorium concept, and Janet Mills on Friday vetoed a bill that would have banned data centers larger than 20 megawatts until November, 2027 — which would have been the first such moratorium in the nation — showing even sympathetic governors can block adoption at the last step, a risk that still hangs over any pending 2026/2027 bills in Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Georgia, etc. - [2026-10-04] Grassroots pressure (Washington state day-of-action) shows continued organizing energy aimed at state legislators, but Doglio introduced a bill in the 2026 legislative session with some basic data center regulations that was watered down due to pressure from the tech lobby before dying in committee — illustrating industry lobbying continuing to defeat state-level bills even in Democratic-led states with active movements. - [2026-10-07] No search turned up any new governor (beyond Hochul and Abbott) having signed or announced intent to sign a qualifying statewide construction/permitting prohibition in September or October 2026; Pennsylvania's Aug. 18 EO and Nebraska's and Maryland's actions remain conditional/tax/review measures that colleagues' reports already show likely fail the "prohibits or suspends" bar. BOTTOM LINE: With most 2026 state legislative sessions already adjourned, no state beyond New York having reached final enactment, and the only plausible second candidate (Texas's TCEQ pause) facing live legal-authority challenges and a built-in expiration tied to a December audit, the structural and procedural pathways to a third qualifying state within the ~12 remaining weeks are narrow — favoring a NO resolution absent a fast, unexpected executive action in another large state. NOT FOUND: No confirmed enactment (executive or legislative) of a qualifying moratorium in any third state as of Oct. 7, 2026; no outcome yet from the Oct. 19 TCEQ compliance report; no indication the market/resolver has yet ruled on whether Texas's action counts as "qualifying" under the contract's technical criteria.