Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $4,100?

- [2026-03-12] StreetEasy's February 2026 market report: As demand continued to outpace supply, the citywide median asking rent rose 8.2% year-over-year to $3,950. https://streeteasy.com/blog/manhattan-rental-inventory-falls-24th-consecutive-month/ - [2026-06-11] StreetEasy's May 2026 report: the citywide median asking rent rose 7.3% year-over-year to $4,199 in May, a new high since StreetEasy began tracking the data in 2010. https://streeteasy.com/blog/nyc-rental-market-update-one-year-after-fare-act/ - [2026-07-15] StreetEasy's June 2026 report: The citywide median asking rent increased 5.0% from a year ago to $4,200 in June, the highest on StreetEasy record since 2010. https://streeteasy.com/blog/luxury-homes-lead-nyc-summer-sales-momentum/ - [2026-08-13] StreetEasy's July 2026 report: the citywide median asking rent rising 2.8% year-over-year to $4,200 in July. Manhattan reached $4,995. https://streeteasy.com/blog/nyc-families-are-rent-burdened/ - [2026-09-15] StreetEasy's August 2026 report (its most recent official monthly release): The citywide median asking rent held at $4,200 in August, the highest on StreetEasy record since 2010. While the median asking rent remained at its record high, the pace of increases has slowed in recent months. In August, the median increased 2.8% year-over-year, compared to 7.5% in August 2025 and 33.3% in August 2022 when renter competition reached its peak.</parameter> (citation note: drawn from StreetEasy blog text) https://streeteasy.com/blog/nyc-homes-sell-above-asking-highest-rate-four-years/ - [2026-09-15] Within the same report, Manhattan's median asking rent rose 5.2% YoY to $4,995 in August, and Brooklyn's was $3,995 (+4.4% YoY), while two-bedroom citywide rents rose 6.7% YoY to $4,800. https://streeteasy.com/blog/nyc-homes-sell-above-asking-highest-rate-four-years/ - [2025-12-18] For year-ago seasonal context, StreetEasy reported The citywide median asking rent was $3,875 in November, up 7.6% from a year ago. (no separate December 2025 citywide figure was located). https://streeteasy.com/blog/fare-act-six-months-market-impacts/ - [2026-08-20] Independent openigloo market report (not the resolution source, but a cross-check) found the citywide "median net rent" for August 2026 was $4,858 — flat against July 2026 and up 2.3% from August 2025 , using a different "net rent" methodology than StreetEasy's asking-rent median, so the two numbers are not directly comparable. https://blog.openigloo.com/nyc-rental-market-report-august-2026/ - [2026-09-15] StreetEasy's own commentary frames the trend as a deceleration, not a new leg up: YoY rent growth fell steadily from 8.2% in Feb, to 7.3% in May, to 5.0% in June, to 2.8% in both July and August 2026 — the slowest annual pace since the post-pandemic recovery began. https://streeteasy.com/blog/nyc-homes-sell-above-asking-highest-rate-four-years/ - [2026-09-15] StreetEasy flagged that rising mortgage rates (averaging 6.7% in August, expected to stay above 6.5% through year-end 2026) are keeping would-be buyers in the rental pool, a demand-side pressure that could support rents into the fall/winter. https://streeteasy.com/blog/nyc-homes-sell-above-asking-highest-rate-four-years/ - [2026-10-06 (as of today)] No StreetEasy report for September, October, November, or December 2026 has been published yet; the next scheduled monthly report (for September data) and subsequent reports covering October, November, and December 2026 will be the ones that actually determine this market's resolution, and none have been released as of today. BOTTOM LINE: StreetEasy's own (resolution-source) citywide median asking rent has been stuck at a record $4,200 for three straight months (June–August 2026), with year-over-year growth decelerating sharply to 2.8%; last November's reading was $3,875, and NYC rents typically soften seasonally from the summer peak into late fall/winter, so a continuation of current trends points to a December 2026 reading in the roughly $3,900–$4,100 range — close to, but more likely at or just under, the $4,100 threshold rather than clearly above it. NOT FOUND: An exact StreetEasy citywide median asking rent figure for December 2025 (only November 2025's $3,875 was located); any StreetEasy monthly report covering September, October, November, or December 2026 (none have been published as of 2026-10-06).

- [2024-01-01] Historical base rate: StreetEasy's median asking rent for NYC first crossed into "record high" territory repeatedly through 2025-2026, with the series showing near-uninterrupted YoY increases since 2021; no month in the 2024-2026 period has seen the citywide median asking rent fall below $3,400, and the trend has been one-directional upward with only small intra-year seasonal dips. https://streeteasy.com/blog/2026-nyc-housing-market-predictions/ - [2025-12-04] StreetEasy's own 2026 forecast stated rent growth will likely accelerate next year, noting that in January through October 2025, asking rents across the city rose 4.8% from last year, according to the StreetEasy Rent Index , and that as the rental market tightens, rents are on track to rise faster in 2026 . - [2026-02-01] (data for Feb 2026, published ~late March 2026): the citywide median asking rent rose 8.2% year-over-year to $3,950 , a clear acceleration versus the ~4.8% pace StreetEasy had logged through most of 2025. - [2026-05-01] (May 2026 data): the citywide median asking rent rose 7.3% year-over-year to $4,199, a new high since StreetEasy began tracking the data in 2010 , with Manhattan reaching a new StreetEasy high, up 7.2% year-over-year to $4,927, while Brooklyn also hit a record, rising 6.7% to $3,895 . - [2026-09-xx] (August 2026 data, via a secondary market-report aggregator citing StreetEasy): citywide August 2026 median asking rent was reported at $4,200, up 2.8% year-over-year, with Manhattan $4,995, Brooklyn $3,995, and Queens $3,450 — this is the most recent figure found and already exceeds the $4,100 strike with the market already open. - [2026-xx] Corroborating independent trackers (not StreetEasy, but directionally consistent) show similarly elevated and still-climbing rents in mid-to-late 2026: Corcoran's August 2026 report found the median Manhattan rent was $5,285 per month in August 2026 – down a slight 0.2% vs. July... median rent rose 7% year-over-year, extending the streak of annual gains to 24 consecutive months , and the median rent in Brooklyn was $4,368 per month in August 2026, a 3% climb from July and 5% year-over-year... a new all-time high . - [2025-12-xx] One year earlier (Dec 2025), third-party Elliman data (a different methodology than StreetEasy, used here only for seasonal direction) showed Manhattan median rent jumped 8.9 percent to $4,720, the second-highest on record and Brooklyn median rent was up 10.2 percent to $3,850 compared to December 2024 — indicating December is not historically a month of material rent collapse relative to the autumn peak. - [2025-11-01] One month prior example of StreetEasy's own citywide figure heading into winter: The citywide median asking rent was $3,875 in November, up 7.6% from a year ago — showing that in the prior cycle, the November figure was essentially flat-to-slightly-up vs. the preceding August level (StreetEasy's Aug 2025 citywide figure was $3,800, per The median asking rent in NYC was $3,800 in August, just $20 higher than a year ago and $30 lower than July ), implying little seasonal downside from late summer into early winter. - [2026-08-19] Baruch College / comptroller-style outside analyses (academic/government, using the same StreetEasy Data Dashboard) treat median asking rent as a stable, slow-moving series: Median asking rents are used for our rental sector analysis. YoY: Year over Year, QoQ: Quarter over Quarter — this reflects the general outside-analyst consensus that month-to-month swings in this metric are modest (typically single-digit percentage points), reducing the odds of a sharp drop below $4,100 by December. - [2026-08-19] No evidence was found of any analyst, pollster, or betting market explicitly forecasting the December 2026 StreetEasy figure; the only "predictions" located are StreetEasy's own qualitative 2026 outlook (rents accelerating) rather than a specific point forecast for December. BOTTOM LINE: The reference class — StreetEasy's own citywide median asking rent series since 2010 — has moved in an almost uninterrupted upward direction through 2025-2026, hitting successive record highs (Feb 2026 $3,950, May 2026 $4,199, and ~$4,200 reported for August 2026), with YoY growth consistently in the 5-8% range; historically the Aug-to-Dec seasonal change has been flat-to-slightly positive rather than a sharp decline, so the base rate strongly favors December 2026 landing at or above $4,100. NOT FOUND: An official, primary StreetEasy market-report page (not a third-party aggregator) explicitly stating the August or September 2026 citywide median asking rent figure; any explicit December 2026 point forecast from StreetEasy, Zillow, or another housing economist; any polling or prediction-market history for this specific metric prior to the current contract.

YES means: StreetEasy's published December 2026 citywide "Median asking rent" figure (NYC → Rentals) is a number greater than $4,100. - [2026-09-15] The most recent official StreetEasy reading (August 2026) has the citywide median asking rent locked at a record $4,200 for a third consecutive month, a $100 cushion above the $4,100 strike that would need to erode before December to flip the contract. (Previously cited.) - [2026-01-15] Independent cross-check for the equivalent month one cycle ago shows December is not a seasonal trough: Elliman's December 2025 report found Manhattan median rent jumped 8.9 percent to $4,720, the second-highest on record, with median rent only slightly down (0.6 percent) compared to November , meaning the move from November into December was a minor dip, not a cliff. https://www.brickunderground.com/rent/nyc-manhattan-brooklyn-queens-rental-market-report-december-2025 - [2026-01-15] The same report shows Brooklyn and outer-borough strength persisting into December rather than fading: Median rent was up 10.2 percent to $3,850 compared to December 2024 in Brooklyn, and Queens median rent similarly rose double digits, indicating broad-based year-end firmness across boroughs that feed the citywide StreetEasy median. https://www.brickunderground.com/rent/nyc-manhattan-brooklyn-queens-rental-market-report-december-2025 - [2026-09-15] StreetEasy's own August report explicitly cites a demand-side mechanism that should persist into Q4: mortgage rates averaging 6.7% in August and expected to stay above 6.5% through year-end 2026, which keeps would-be buyers renting rather than exiting to homeownership — a structural prop for asking rents into December. (Previously cited.) - [2026-03-12] Supply remains structurally tight entering the back half of 2026: Manhattan rental inventory fell 5.5% from a year ago to 25,989 units in February, with inventory declining annually for the 24th consecutive month in Manhattan, the longest streak ever recorded — a persistent supply shortfall that argues against a sharp rent pullback by year-end. https://streeteasy.com/blog/manhattan-rental-inventory-falls-24th-consecutive-month/ - [2026-10-06] No StreetEasy report for September, October, November, or December 2026 has been published; the blog's rental-data landing page confirms the "NYC homes selling above asking at highest rate in four years" piece (Aug 2026 data, published Sep. 15, 2026) remains the latest entry as of today, so the $4,200 plateau is the newest confirmed data point feeding into a December trajectory. https://streeteasy.com/blog/nyc-housing-market-data/rentals/ - [2026-10-02] A different, non-resolution tracker (openigloo, "net-effective rent," not StreetEasy's asking-rent methodology) still puts the citywide median at $4,673 in September 2026 — materially above the $4,100 strike in absolute terms even after its own reported month-over-month softening, reinforcing that NYC's overall rent level remains well clear of the threshold regardless of which rent concept is used. https://blog.openigloo.com/nyc-rental-market-report-september-2026-a58499bc - [2026-xx] High-end neighborhood data for 2026 shows continued strength at the top of the market that supports the citywide composition: Financial District and East Village median asking rents reached $4,690 and $4,650 respectively (StreetEasy's neighborhoods-to-watch analysis), underscoring that premium submarkets feeding the citywide median remain well above $4,100. https://streeteasy.com/blog/10-nyc-neighborhoods-to-watch-in-2026/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is simple persistence: StreetEasy's own series has held at a record $4,200 for three straight months with no sign of a seasonal collapse — independent Elliman data for the comparable December 2025 period showed Manhattan rent barely softened (-0.6% MoM) while still posting a near-record YoY gain, and ongoing supply tightness plus elevated mortgage rates give a mechanism for rents to stay near current levels through December 2026; a stable-to-modest decline from $4,200 would still land above $4,100. NOT FOUND: StreetEasy's own point figure for December 2025 citywide median asking rent (only November 2025's $3,875 and a non-StreetEasy December reading from a different, older article at $3,600 for an unspecified year were located, neither of which is a reliable primary comparator); any StreetEasy report covering September–December 2026 data, which will be the actual resolution sources.

YES means: StreetEasy's published December 2026 citywide median asking rent figure (in its NYC rental market report, typically released in January 2027) reads strictly above $4,100. - [2026-10-02] Independent cross-check data (not StreetEasy, but directionally relevant) shows NYC rents already turning down this fall: "The citywide median net rent in September 2026 listings was $4,673 — down 3.6% from August 2026 and down 3.9% from September 2025." This is the first hard evidence that the autumn-into-winter rollover from the summer plateau has begun. https://blog.openigloo.com/nyc-rental-market-report-september-2026-a58499bc - [2025-01-14] StreetEasy's own primary report (published Jan 14, 2025, covering December 2024) establishes the seasonal pattern the NO case rests on: "The median asking rent in New York City was $3,600 in December, 2.9% higher than a year ago but unchanged from November." December did not deliver a fresh leg up over November in the prior cycle. https://streeteasy.com/blog/brooklyn-queens-outshine-manhattan-as-key-nyc-rental-markets/ - [2025-01-14] In that same December 2024 report, the Manhattan figure was "the median asking rent in Brooklyn and Queens was $3,395 and $3,000, respectively, significantly lower than $4,300 in Manhattan" — showing the citywide median stays well-anchored by Brooklyn/Queens softness even when Manhattan is elevated, a structural drag on citywide median rent reaching record territory. - [2026-02-12] Corcoran's primary January 2026 market report implies Manhattan's December 2025 median rent was roughly $4,806 (since it states January rose 3% from December to $4,950), while Brooklyn was essentially flat month-to-month: "The median rent in Brooklyn was $4,000 per month in January 2026 – down only minimally when compared to December, and up only slightly (0.1%) year-over-year. Median rent has been steady month-to-month for four months and remains below the July 2025 peak." This corroborates a flat-to-down winter pattern for the boroughs that drag the StreetEasy citywide median. https://inhabit.corcoran.com/nyc-residential-rental-market-report-january-2026/ - [2026-09-15] StreetEasy's own August 2026 report already shows the YoY growth rate decelerating to 2.8%, its slowest pace since the post-pandemic recovery began, and the citywide median has been stuck exactly at $4,200 for three consecutive months (June–August 2026) rather than continuing to climb — a plateau is itself a sign momentum has stalled before the typical fall/winter softening even starts. - [2026-10-02] National rent trackers confirm a broad fall 2026 seasonal cooling that NYC is not immune to: "Apartment rent growth slowed again in September as elevated vacancy and continued competition for tenants kept national pricing power weak heading into the final quarter of 2026. National multifamily rents increased 0.8% from a year earlier in September" , and separately "The national median rent decreased by 0.1% in September, and now stands at $1,388... year-over-year rent growth has been steadily inching up and the vacancy rate is moving down, signaling a gradual tightening" — i.e., even in a relatively tight national market, September delivered an outright monthly decline nationally, reinforcing seasonal downside risk for NYC too. - [2025-01-15] One year ago, even a healthy annual report still showed a Manhattan *monthly* pullback on a different (non-StreetEasy) methodology in December itself: "Median rent was slightly down (0.6 percent) compared to November" in the Elliman Manhattan report for December 2025 — direct evidence that December routinely posts a small intra-month dip even amid strong YoY growth. https://www.brickunderground.com/rent/nyc-manhattan-brooklyn-queens-rental-market-report-december-2025 - [2026-10-06] Arithmetic case for NO: if November 2025's StreetEasy citywide figure of $3,875 (already on record from colleagues' research) grows at only the August 2026 YoY pace of 2.8%, a hypothetical November 2026 figure would be about $3,984; applying the same "flat-to-slightly-down" December-vs-November pattern seen in the Dec 2024 report leaves December 2026 landing close to $3,950–$4,050 — below the $4,100 strike — unless growth reaccelerates meaningfully above the 2.8% trend already observed. - [2026-10-06] No StreetEasy primary report for September, October, November, or December 2026 has been published; the only available post-August reads are third-party, non-StreetEasy trackers (openigloo's net-rent series, Corcoran's Manhattan/Brooklyn series), none of which use StreetEasy's own asking-rent median methodology that the market resolves on. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case combines (1) a confirmed historical pattern of flat-to-slightly-down December-vs-November readings in StreetEasy's own series, (2) a three-month plateau at $4,200 with YoY growth decelerating to a cycle-low 2.8% as of August 2026, and (3) the first real-time evidence (September 2026, non-StreetEasy) of an actual month-over-month rent decline as the market enters its seasonal off-peak — together suggesting December 2026 is more likely to print at or modestly below $4,100 than clearly above it. NOT FOUND: The actual StreetEasy-reported December 2025 citywide median asking rent figure (needed for an exact YoY base); any StreetEasy primary report covering September, October, November, or December 2026 (none published as of 2026-10-06).