Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting? — Hike 25bps

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC raised the federal funds rate 25bps to 3.75%–4.00% in a unanimous 12-0 vote, the first hike since 2023, after inflation (core PCE ~3.4%, headline ~3.7%) stayed well above target. The Federal Reserve concluded its sixth meeting of the year by raising the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4%, the first time the benchmark rate has been increased since 2023. Source: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/16/feds-interest-rate-decision-september-16-2026 - [2026-09-16] The September SEP/dot plot showed the median participant now expects the fed funds rate to hike an additional 25bps ending 2026 at 4.1%, no change to the policy rate in 2027 , with cuts projected only in 2028-2029. Source: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-09-16] At the press conference, chances of further tightening rose: the chances of at least one more hike this year stood at 87% after Warsh's remarks, compared with 77% Wednesday morning; chances of two more hikes this year were 37%, compared with 27% earlier in the day. The 2027 dot plot was split, with all but four voters expecting higher rates than now by the end of next year, and more expecting two hikes than one. Source: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-10-01] The current effective federal funds rate is 3.88% (within the 3.75–4.00% target range), confirmed via the Fed's official H.15 release and FRED data as of October 1-4, 2026. Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit: 2026-10-04: 4.00 Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted. Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU - [2026-10-01] Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan made hawkish comments that larger hikes may be needed: "Fed's Logan says '50 bps or more' rate hikes needed to curb inflation" per Investing.com's economic calendar news feed. Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168 - [2026-09-29] Markets shifted to pricing back-to-back hikes at the Fed's final two 2026 meetings: Fixed income markets are now firmly pricing in back-to-back Federal Reserve rate hikes for October and December 2026, signaling a more aggressive tightening path than previously anticipated. This would elevate the federal funds rate to 4-4.25% . Critically, that also raises the prospect that a sequence of hikes could extend into early 2027, but that's not the markets' current base case. Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/09/29/what-to-expect-from-interest-rates-for-the-rest-of-2026/ - [2026-10-05] A rates-forecast tracker shows futures markets pricing the fed funds rate to reach about 4.1% by January and reach roughly 4.8% by October 2027, pointing to expectations that policy will remain restrictive , implying markets expect roughly one more cumulative hike by January 2027 relative to the October 2026 level (not necessarily occurring exactly at the January meeting). Source: https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds - [2026-10-05] A futures-derived probability tracker (methodology benchmarked to CME FedWatch) shows for the October 28, 2026 meeting a 21.8% probability of a fresh hike (cumulative rate-higher probability 21.8%), for December 9, 2026 an 81.1% probability of a fresh hike (cumulative higher probability 85.2%), and for January 27, 2027 a 44.5% probability of an additional fresh hike at that specific meeting, with cumulative probability of the rate being higher than today by Jan 27 at 91.8% (same probability 8.2%). Source: https://centralbank.watch/federal-reserve/ - [2026-10-05] The same tracker's rate-level grid shows the modal expected target range by the January 2027 meeting concentrated near 4.00–4.25% (22% probability) and 4.25–4.50% (18%) cells, with the January 2027 meeting not carrying a Summary of Economic Projections. Source: https://centralbank.watch/federal-reserve/ - [2026-10-05] Upcoming scheduled events before January 2027 close: FOMC meetings October 27-28, 2026 and December 8-9, 2026 (both live hike risk per market pricing), FOMC minutes October 7, 2026, Beige Book October 14, 2026, and the January 26-27, 2027 FOMC meeting itself (confirmed on the Federal Reserve's official calendar, not yet reconfirmed as final since 2027 dates remain tentative until the preceding meeting). The Federal Reserve notes that each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it. Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm - [2026-09-28] Fed Governor Lisa Cook publicly reaffirmed her hawkish September vote: "As you know, I voted along with the rest of the FOMC to raise rates 25 basis points at the recent September meeting." Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/09/29/what-to-expect-from-interest-rates-for-the-rest-of-2026/ - [2026-10-02] Treasury/short-rate market data (H.15) shows the effective fed funds rate holding steady at 3.88% through early October with short-term yields (1-month to 1-year) elevated and rising across late September, consistent with markets pricing continued tightening. Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/ BOTTOM LINE: The Fed just resumed hiking (Sept 2026, to 3.75–4.00%) amid persistent above-target inflation, and market pricing/Fed communication point to additional 25bp hikes most likely landing at the October 28 and/or December 9, 2026 meetings; a further hike specifically at the January 27, 2027 meeting is a live but not dominant scenario, with futures-implied odds of a fresh move at that meeting roughly in the 40-45% range as of early October 2026, well short of certainty, and contingent on how many of the two remaining 2026 hikes actually land. NOT FOUND: An official Fed statement or dot plot specifically addressing the January 2027 meeting (no SEP is published at that meeting); live CME FedWatch percentages for the January 27, 2027 meeting (only third-party reconstructions were found); confirmation of the October 28, 2026 and December 9, 2026 decisions (both are scheduled after today, Oct 6, 2026, and have not yet occurred).

- [2026-09-16] The Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023, lifting the target range 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% on a unanimous 12-0 vote, ending a cycle of five consecutive 2026 holds (Jan, Mar, Apr, Jun, Jul). The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote: The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm - [2026-09-16] At that same meeting, the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections signaled continued tightening: 16 of 18 participants expect at least one additional 25bp hike by year end, while only two project rates remaining at the new 3.75%-4.00% range, with a median year-end policy rate of approximately 4.1%, corresponding to a 4.00%-4.25% target range. https://www.pcbb.com/industry-insights/economy/2026-09-16-fomc-september-2026 - [2026-09-17] Critically, the median SEP dot for 2027 itself showed no further hike beyond year-end 2026: the median participant also shows the fed funds rate unchanged in 2027 at 4.1%, followed by rate cuts in 2028 and 2029 to 3.9% and 3.6%, respectively. This is the most recent official committee-level projection touching 2027 and implies the committee's own base case has no hike at the January 2027 meeting specifically. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-09-20] Analyst commentary (MUFG) on the September dots similarly noted: the median inflation estimates for 2027 remained unchanged and FFR projections are up by 50bps, suggesting they would be higher without the Fed tightening policy. The median FFR dot is now at 4.125% for 2026 and 2027. https://www.mufgresearch.com/rates/september-2026-fomc-recap/ - [2026-10-05] Market-implied odds (fed funds futures, Central Bank Watch model) for January 27, 2027 show cumulative "higher" probability of only ~39.9%–44.5% (vs ~78-82% "same" probability for October/December 2026 meetings), with the model's standalone "fresh move priced for January alone" at roughly 44.5% (meaning most of the hiking the market expects is concentrated in the October/December 2026 meetings, not January). Markets price **85 bp** of tightening in total across the next 9 meetings, i.e. about **3.4 hikes** cumulatively through October 2027, not concentrated specifically on January 2027. https://centralbank.watch/federal-reserve/ - [2026-10-02] A separate futures-based rate forecast tool shows the market pricing the effective fed funds rate to rise from 3.88% currently to roughly 4.1% by January 2027, consistent with the market expecting roughly one more 25bp move somewhere between October 2026 and January 2027, not specifically concentrated on the January meeting. https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds (per search snippet; not separately fetched) - [2026-09-16] A separate source (Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor, data ~late July/Aug 2026) for the January 27, 2027 meeting showed 3.75 - 4.00, 9.4%, 4.00 - 4.25, 45.6% implied probabilities (note: stale snapshot, pre-September hike, but illustrative of the market's broad distribution heading into 2027). - [2026-09-16] Base-rate context: this is the Fed's 11th tightening cycle since 1971 — there have been ten completed tightening cycles since 1971, each made up of several individual increases, and an eleventh began on 16 September 2026. Historical cycles (1994, 1999-2000, 2004-06, 2015-18, 2022-23) typically featured multiple consecutive hikes once a cycle began, suggesting that IF the Fed is in a hiking cycle, follow-through hikes at subsequent meetings have historical precedent, though spacing and magnitude vary. https://maseconomics.com/fed-rate-hike-history-1971-2026/ - [2026-10-28] The next scheduled meeting (October 28, 2026) is a non-SEP meeting; per a financial calendar source a hike there is "Not the base case; would require significantly worse-than-expected inflation data," implying the market and analysts see the immediately following meeting as more likely a hold or smaller move, pushing any additional tightening toward December 2026 or beyond. https://www.financecalendar.com/event/fomc-rate-decision-october-2026/ - [2026-07-29] Prior to the September hike, there was already material hawkish dissent building: Voting against this action: Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at the July 2026 meeting, indicating a committee trending hawkish well before September's actual hike. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm BOTTOM LINE: The reference class is a Fed newly embarked on its 11th tightening cycle since 1971 after a single confirmed 25bp hike in September 2026, with committee dots (as of September 2026) and most analyst/market pricing pointing to one further hike landing most likely in Q4 2026 (October or especially December) rather than specifically at the January 27, 2027 meeting, whose own median SEP projection (4.1% unchanged) and market-implied odds (roughly 40-45% cumulative probability of being higher than today by that date, not an isolated per-meeting hike probability) suggest a January 2027 hike is plausible but not the base case, with most of the expected tightening path front-loaded into 2026 meetings. NOT FOUND: No October 2026 or December 2026 FOMC decision has occurred yet as of this report (those are still pending/"TBD" in sources), so no direct confirmation of the rate path between September 2026 and January 2027 exists; no explicit CME FedWatch Tool snapshot for the January 27, 2027 meeting specifically isolating a standalone (non-cumulative) hike probability was found/fetched; no dedicated polling of professional forecasters (e.g., WSJ or Reuters survey) specifically for the January 2027 meeting was located.

YES means: the Fed actually implements a 25-basis-point rate hike at its January 26-27, 2027 meeting, moving the target range up by exactly one quarter point from wherever it stands entering that meeting (mutually exclusive versus a 50bp+ hike, a hold, or a cut). - [2026-10-05] The most detailed futures-derived tracker shows a 44.5% probability of a "fresh" 25bp-equivalent move priced specifically for the January 27, 2027 meeting (+11.1bp expected move), with the modal rate-level outcome by that meeting split across the 4.00-4.25% (22%) and 4.25-4.50% (18%) cells — meaning a January hike remains the single largest non-status-quo outcome in the distribution. https://centralbank.watch/federal-reserve/ - [2026-10-05] The same model shows cumulative tightening expectations rising steadily into 2027, with the rate priced to reach 4.42% by March 2027 and 4.52% by April 2027, consistent with a hiking cycle that is still gaining momentum through Q1 2027 rather than stopping after 2026. https://centralbank.watch/federal-reserve/ - [2026-10-01] Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan explicitly called for additional tightening beyond what's already been delivered, saying "I currently estimate the target range needs to rise an additional 50 basis points or more to appropriately balance the outlook and risks for our dual mandate goals." This signals support for hikes extending past December into early 2027 if inflation hasn't cooled enough by then. https://investing.com/news/economy-news/feds-logan-says-more-rate-hikes-needed-to-curb-sticky-inflation-4928700 - [2026-10-01] Logan also argued current policy is not yet restrictive: "The economy is strengthening and the labor market is well balanced... though inflation is falling as transitory factors fade, it does not look like it will go much lower than 2.5% without further rate hikes." This is a mechanism for a January hike: if October/December moves are partial or delayed, the "additional 50bp or more" could land at the January meeting. https://investing.com/news/economy-news/feds-logan-calls-for-50-bps-or-more-in-rate-hikes-4928682 - [2026-10-01] A separate Reuters-sourced account quantifies Logan's framework: "A few additional increases in the target range would undo the FOMC's risk management cuts from last fall," referencing 75bp of 2025 cuts — implying up to three more 25bp hikes could still be "owed" beyond September's single hike, leaving room for one to fall in January. https://investing.com/news/economy-news/feds-logan-calls-for-50-bps-or-more-in-rate-hikes-4928682 - [2026-10-05] The Cleveland Fed's real-time inflation nowcast shows Q4 2026 inflation accelerating on a quarterly annualized basis to 4.01% CPI and 3.79% PCE (versus 1.57% and 1.92% in Q3), with core PCE also rising to 3.05% annualized in Q4 — a mechanism that could keep the Fed hiking into early 2027 if the Q4 upturn persists into the data the Committee reviews before January. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting - [2026-10-06] Fresh market commentary notes continued inflationary pressure: "recent ISM survey data showed that input prices within the US services sector recently escalated at their sharpest rate in over four years," even as October-meeting hike odds eased on soft jobs data — a cost-push dynamic that could resurface by January if it feeds into CPI/PCE. https://fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-rise-due-to-easing-fed-rate-hike-expectations-202610060838 - [2026-10-01] A tracker of regional Fed presidents' public positioning shows a hawkish-leaning majority heading into the fourth quarter: Logan called for 50bp+ more, Musalem argued "inflation is a present problem," and Hammack "warned about an inflation mindset taking hold," while Kashkari "pencilled in one more hike in 2026 and one in 2027" — directly naming a 2027 hike as his base case. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fomc-minutes-october-2026 - [2026-09-29] One hike-cycle scenario tracked by analysts explicitly extends the sequence beyond year-end: "that also raises the prospect that a sequence of hikes could extend into early 2027" if October and December both deliver hikes and inflation stays sticky, which is the most direct mechanical path to a January move (a third consecutive hike rather than a pause). https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/09/29/what-to-expect-from-interest-rates-for-the-rest-of-2026/ - [2026-09-16] At the September press conference, Fed Chair Warsh framed the committee's approach as data-dependent with no commitment to stop, declining to rule out further action: "I'm not in the forward guidance business," leaving the door open to a January hike if intervening data (October/November CPI, PCE) run hot, consistent with the dot plot showing "all but four voters expecting higher rates than now by the end of next year...more expected two hikes than expected one." https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case for YES rests on the Fed being in an active, newly-launched hiking cycle with a hawkish-leaning committee (Logan explicitly wants "50bp or more" beyond September's move, Kashkari pencils in a 2027 hike) and a Q4 inflation nowcast that has reaccelerated; if October and/or December deliver only partial tightening (e.g., one hike instead of two, or a skip), the January meeting becomes the natural venue to complete the committee's own signaled path toward ~4.1-4.25%, a scenario futures currently price at roughly 44.5% for a fresh move at that specific meeting. NOT FOUND: No Fed official has named the January 27, 2027 meeting specifically as their preferred timing for a further hike (commentary clusters around "by year-end" or "in 2027" generically); no confirmed October or December 2026 FOMC decision exists yet to establish what, if any, hike "balance" would carry into January.

YES means: the Federal Reserve announces a 25 basis-point hike to the federal funds target range at the January 26-27, 2027 FOMC meeting (i.e., the "Hike 25bps" contract settles YES). This dimension argues for NO — i.e., the Fed does not deliver a 25bp hike at that specific meeting (hold, cut, or a >25bp move all count as NO for this contract). - [2026-10-02] A cooling September jobs report (just 29,000 jobs added) reinforced the FOMC's lean toward skipping a second straight hike in October, with Reuters reporting policymakers were "already leaning against delivering a second straight rate hike this month to give them time to sift through more economic data before pulling the trigger again." https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-may-skip-october-pull-182618206.html - [2026-10-05] Futures-based trackers now show an October 28 hike priced at only ~20-21.8%, down sharply from ~70% a week earlier, while December carries the bulk of expected tightening (~81%), meaning the "live" hike risk is concentrated in Q4 2026, not January 2027 — if the Fed hikes once more in December as the market's modal path suggests, the committee's own September dot plot (one hike for 12 of 18 members) would already be satisfied, leaving no hike "due" in January. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fomc-minutes-october-2026 - [2026-10-02] White House economist Chris Phelan argued the weak jobs report means markets are "no longer expecting another rate hike" this cycle beyond what's already priced, and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and NY Fed's John Williams have stressed "no need for urgency," consistent with a pause-after-one-more-move narrative that would leave January as a hold. https://www.ibtimes.com/fed-rate-hikes-may-over-2026-white-house-economist-points-weak-september-jobs-report-3808197 - [2026-10-01] Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack said officials "have time to evaluate economic data" after the weak jobs print, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% — labor-market cooling is the key status-quo-inertia argument against a third consecutive hike cycle reaching into January. https://wearesavers.com/world/us/2026/10/03/fed-pauses-rate-hike-signals-after-jobs-data - [2026-10-05] J.P. Morgan's Michael Feroli explicitly frames the bank's call as "one more hike at the December meeting, in line with the revised median FOMC expectations," adding that "this is unlikely to mark the beginning of a longer hiking cycle" — a direct analyst statement that the hiking campaign is expected to conclude before January. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts - [2026-09-17] The Fed's own September SEP median dot shows the policy rate unchanged at 4.1% in 2027 relative to year-end 2026, meaning the committee's central tendency itself does not call for a January hike once the (expected) final 2026 hike lands — the base case is that all anticipated tightening is front-loaded into October/December 2026. - [2026-10-05] Sibling-venue pricing corroborates the NO case: a Robinhood prediction-market page for the identical January 27, 2027 Fed decision shows "Maintain rates" priced far above "Hike rates by 25bps," and a separate Kalshi-displayed snapshot shows "Fed maintains rate" at 55% versus "Hike 25bps" at 33%, both implying hold is the modal outcome. https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/economics/events/fed-rate-decision-in-january-2027-jan-27-2027/ - [2026-10-05] A third-party futures-probability model (benchmarked ~96-97% to CME FedWatch) puts the cumulative "rate higher than today" probability by Jan 27, 2027 at just 39.9%, explicitly cautioning that this is cumulative across multiple meetings, not an isolated bet on January — meaning the implied standalone chance of a fresh hike arriving precisely at the January meeting (as opposed to having already happened in October/December) is smaller than the headline cumulative number suggests. https://centralbank.watch/federal-reserve/ - [2026-10-06] Even bullish commentary (gold-market analysis) frames the risk as "keeps the door open to a December rate hike," not a January one, and notes recent jobs and PCE data "have shown signs of cooling, reducing pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates again" at the nearest meetings — a disinflationary/cooling-labor narrative that, if it continues through year-end, directly weakens the case for any hike in January 2027. https://fxstreet.com/news/gold-recovers-from-two-month-lows-as-bond-selloff-takes-a-breather-202610061109 - [1971-2026] Historical Fed tightening cycles have featured multiple hikes but have also reliably included pauses between moves to assess incoming data (status-quo inertia): the admiralmarkets rate-path table shows the Fed held at 5 consecutive meetings in 2026 (Jan–Jul) before the single September hike, underscoring that "hold" has been the Committee's dominant/default action in 8 of 9 2026 meetings to date, a pattern that favors a January hold absent fresh upside inflation surprises. - [2026-10-05] The January 27, 2027 meeting carries no Summary of Economic Projections, reducing the probability that the Committee would choose that specific meeting (rather than the December SEP meeting, where dots and press-conference guidance can better justify a move) to deliver a fresh tightening decision — procedurally, non-SEP meetings have historically been used more often for holds. BOTTOM LINE: The dominant, data-supported narrative as of early October 2026 is that any remaining 2026-27 tightening is expected to be concentrated in the December 9, 2026 meeting (with October 28 now priced as a likely hold after a weak jobs report and cooling PCE), leaving January 27, 2027 as a probable hold under the Fed's own September dot plot, most bank forecasts (e.g., J.P. Morgan), and sibling prediction-market pricing that shows "maintain rate" as the modal outcome for that meeting. NOT FOUND: No October 28 or December 9, 2026 decision has occurred yet to confirm whether the "one more hike" priced by markets has already been delivered before January; no official Fed communication specifically addressing the January 2027 meeting exists since it carries no SEP; could not access live, non-stale CME FedWatch Tool figures directly (cmegroup.com) for the January 2027 contract, relying instead on third-party trackers and news summaries of CME-derived data.