Will the number of ICE removals be above 500000 in FY2026? — Above 500,000

- [2026-07-11] ICE's biweekly detention/removal data (posted ~mid-July 2026) showed more than 350,000 individuals removed so far in fiscal year 2026, with the total number of deportations reaching 356,389 , with two and a half months to go in the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30 . https://abcnews.com/Politics/ice-350000-individuals-removed-fiscal-year-2026/story?id=134948878 - [2026-04-04] Independent analysis of ICE's own biweekly spreadsheets found at the current daily pace of 1,266 per day, FY2026 is on track to exceed 460,000 removals for the full year, nearly 45% more than FY2025 and 85% more than FY2024 . https://austinkocher.substack.com/p/ice-detention-and-deportation-by - [2026-04-04] Through the first half of the fiscal year, through the first six months of FY2026 (October 1, 2025 through April 4, 2026), ICE has carried out 234,236 removals, compared to 134,500 at the same point in FY2025 . https://austinkocher.substack.com/p/ice-detention-and-deportation-by - [2026-07-23] A report summarizing ICE's mid-July data noted at the current pace, ICE is on track to significantly exceed the total for all of fiscal year 2025, which ended with 319,980 removals, meaning this year's total had already surpassed last year's full year number with weeks still to go , and removals are on track to exceed the total set by the Obama administration in FY2013 (438,421), comfortably clearing that mark if the daily average holds through September . https://afnewsofficial.substack.com/p/the-new-ice-numbers-are-turning-heads-ffa - [2026-07-11] TRAC confirms ICE held 65,765 in detention according to data current as of July 11, 2026 , consistent with the ERO biweekly removal data release of the same period. https://tracreports.org/immigration/quickfacts/ - [2026-08-24] The Deportation Data Project reported it had released ICE data updated through August 6, 2026, including every ICE encounter, detainer request, arrest, book-in to detention, and removal between October 1, 2022 and August 6, 2026 , but public write-ups since have not posted a new FYTD removals headline figure beyond the ~356K July figure. - [2026-09-27] The ICE-tracking database icetracking.org, last updated September 27, 2026, reported the Trump administration arrested and deported a record number of immigrants in July, apprehending an average of 1,500 people and removing 1,100 people daily , suggesting the removal pace held in the 1,100-1,500/day range into Q4 FY2026. - [2026-09-09 to 2026-09-28] ICE's official newsroom continued posting near-daily enforcement/removal press releases through late September 2026 (e.g., large multi-state operations in Indiana and Florida and individual removal case announcements), indicating sustained but not obviously accelerating operational tempo heading into FY-end. https://www.ice.gov/newsroom - [2025-12 (budget doc)] ICE's own FY2026 congressional budget justification set an official target of 1,000,000 removals per year and 100,000 detention beds — a goal that, based on observed pace, is roughly 2x what the agency is actually on track to achieve in FY2026. https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/25_0613_ice_fy26-congressional-budget-justificatin.pdf - [2026-04-04] Analyst projections based on ICE's own data explicitly state FY2026 is on pace for roughly 460,000 ICE removals at the current daily rate, less than half the official goal of 1 million , a figure below the 500,000 threshold in this market. https://austinkocher.substack.com/p/ice-detention-and-deportation-by - [2026-09 (ongoing)] FY2026 ends September 30, 2026, and ICE has a documented pattern of a 6+ week publication gap around fiscal year-end/start (as seen with the Oct 2025–April 2026 gap of 56 days), meaning official "locked" FY2026 year-end totals are likely to first appear in ICE's FY2026 annual report or biweekly spreadsheet sometime in October–November 2026, per ICE's pattern of getting busy with year-end reporting in late September/early October, with no new biweekly data for roughly six weeks between the last September release and the first release of the next fiscal year . https://austinkocher.substack.com/p/ice-detention-and-deportation-by BOTTOM LINE: As of the most recent confirmed ICE data (mid-July 2026, ~356,000 FYTD removals at a daily pace of ~1,260-1,500/day), straight-line extrapolation to September 30, 2026 puts FY2026 total removals in the roughly 450,000-480,000 range — above FY2025's record 319,980 and likely above the Obama-era FY2013 peak of 438,421, but below the 500,000 threshold in this market, consistent with analysts' own ~460,000 full-year projection. NOT FOUND: An official ICE "locked" FY2026 year-end removal total (expected to be released by ICE in its FY2026 annual report, typically some weeks after September 30 close, likely October-December 2026) was not available as of this research; no FYTD removal figure newer than the mid-July 2026 (~356,389) data point was found despite ICE data releases continuing through August/September 2026.

- [2026-09-02 (data through July 2026)] ICE's own published biweekly statistics show 356K removals FYTD in FY2026 — on pace to break Obama-era record. https://www.openimmigration.us/enforcement - [2026-07-23] Commentary citing ICE data notes this year's removals are on track to exceed the total set by the Obama administration back in fiscal year 2013, when 438,421 people were deported, and if ICE maintains its current daily average through the end of September, it will comfortably clear that mark and set a new modern era record. https://afnewsofficial.substack.com/p/the-new-ice-numbers-are-turning-heads-ffa - [2026-04-15] Independent analyst Austin Kocher calculated that at the current daily pace of 1,266 per day, FY2026 is on track to exceed 460,000 removals for the full year, nearly 45% more than FY2025 and 85% more than FY2024. https://austinkocher.substack.com/p/ice-detention-and-deportation-by - [2026-04-15] Even amid the administration's own rhetoric, Kocher noted the Trump administration's stated goal is 1 million removals per year… FY2026 is on pace for roughly 460,000 ICE removals at the current daily rate, less than half the official goal. https://austinkocher.substack.com/p/ice-detention-and-deportation-by - [2026 historical reference class] Fiscal-year ICE removal totals since FY2014 never exceeded roughly 320K before FY2026: Total Removals since FY2014: 2.95M; Peak (FY2025): 319,980; Low (FY2021): 59,011; FY2026 FYTD: 356,389. https://www.openimmigration.us/enforcement - [base rate table] Year-by-year ICE removals: FY2014 315,943; FY2015 235,413; FY2016 240,255; FY2017 226,119; FY2018 256,085; FY2019 267,258; FY2020 185,884; FY2021 59,011; FY2022 72,177; FY2023 142,580; FY2024 271,484; FY2025 319,980 — in this 12-year reference class, zero years exceeded 500,000, and even the oft-cited "Obama-era record" of 438,421 (FY2013) never cleared that mark. https://www.openimmigration.us/enforcement - [2025-11-20 approx.] TRAC Immigration's independent tabulation diverges from ICE/DHS press claims and found far lower administration-period totals, e.g. the total reported number of removals during the Trump administration is just 290,603… just 7 percent more than were removed in FY 2024 during the last full year of the Biden administration despite the enormous increase in resources. https://tracreports.org/reports/767/ - [2025-12] A separate Austin Kocher analysis cautioned that headline DHS claims are inflated relative to ICE's own removal spreadsheet: based on ICE data alone, ICE ERO only deported 21% more people in FY 2025 (329,018) compared to FY 2024 (271,480) under the Biden administration. https://austinkocher.substack.com/p/dhs-claims-603000-deportations-but - [2026-02/09] Data-reliability researchers (Deportation Data Project, UCLA/Berkeley) flagged major inconsistencies between ICE data releases, noting the Oct. dataset records 656,436 removals, and the previous dataset ending in Jul. counted 528,441, underscoring that even "final" FY2025 removal totals have been revised by over 100,000 between releases — a caution for how FY2026's eventual "complete" total may also be revised. https://deportationdata.org/news/2026-02-17-update-ICE-removals.html - [2026-09-10] ICE's own press release confirms data collection is ongoing and granular (hub-level, not just national), e.g., FY 2026 ICE Air Hub Removal Statistics (as of July 7, 2026): Alexandria, Louisiana: 99,796 removals (30% increase from FY 2025). https://www.ice.gov/news/releases/ice-marks-100000th-removal-fiscal-year-2026-louisiana-0 - [extrapolation] Using the ~1,170-1,290/day pace sustained since mid-FY2026 and the 356,389 cumulative through ~July 20, simple linear extrapolation to Sept 30 yields a full-year total in roughly the 420,000–460,000 range — above the historical ICE peak (438,421 in FY2013) but well short of 500,000. BOTTOM LINE: No fiscal year in ICE's modern record (FY2014–FY2025) has ever reached 500,000 removals, and current FY2026 pace (~356K through July, roughly 1,200-1,300/day) extrapolates to approximately 420,000–460,000 for the full year — likely a new all-time record but still below the 500,000 threshold absent a further sharp acceleration in the final two months. NOT FOUND: No official ICE/DHS year-end FY2026 total (fiscal year not yet closed as of report date relative to data availability); no independent forecaster, pollster, or betting-market consensus specifically estimating P(>500,000) could be located; exact historical FY2012/FY2013 "record" figures vary slightly by source (period reports cite 409,849 and 438,421) and were not independently verified via a primary ICE annual report in this search.

YES means: ICE's reported FY2026 removal count (Oct 1, 2025–Sept 30, 2026), once "complete data" is posted, comes in above 500,000. - [2026-09-25] Political Wire/NYT reporting on "the record summer ICE surge" found arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement this summer soared to record highs — with 43,000 in June, more than 49,000 in July and nearly 51,000 in August , showing an accelerating arrest pipeline feeding into detention and removal in the final quarter of FY2026. https://politicalwire.com/2026/09/25/inside-the-record-summer-ice-surge/ - [2026-09-27 (data through Aug 2026)] TRAC's Immigration Court tracker shows through August 2026, immigration judges have issued removal and voluntary departure orders in 83.5% of completed cases, totaling 741,870 deportation orders , with 77,234 removal orders issued in August 2026 alone — a huge, still-growing stock of executable court orders ICE can act against in the FY's final weeks. https://tracreports.org/immigration/quickfacts/eoir.html - [2026-09-17] Reuters-sourced reporting (via Davis Vanguard) confirms the arrest surge was real but notes the removal bottleneck was explicitly "logistical" — citing the Trump administration signed an agreement last year to purchase six Boeing 737 aircraft for deportation operations… those planes were still undergoing Federal Aviation Administration checks and have not yet entered service , meaning added lift capacity coming online late in the fiscal year could still push removals higher before the Sept 30 cutoff. - [2026-09-24] A new deportation-flight hub opened in Ohio just before FY-end: Akron-Canton airport saw total landings had risen to 167 since ICE moved deportation flights to Akron-Canton from Youngstown-Warren Regional Airport, which partially closed its longest runway for repairs , with planes often from a major ICE prison and deportation center in Alexandria, Louisiana — concrete evidence of expanding physical removal throughput in the September crunch period. - [2026-09-30] The Supreme Court cleared the way for the Trump administration to restart its "third-country removal" scheme just before FY-end, removing a legal block that had paused flights to third countries like Rwanda, Burundi, and the Central African Republic, per Intercept reporting the same week. https://theintercept.com/2026/09/29/ice-third-country-deportation-flights - [2026-09-14] Reuters (via Davis Vanguard) notes the arrest-removal gap itself reflects pressure, not capacity limits, reporting current and former officials told Reuters that immigration officers have faced pressure from the White House to reach a goal of 3,000 arrests per day — political pressure for volume that extends to removals as FY-end nears and the administration seeks to tout a record year. - [2026-09-14] The same Reuters data shows the funnel is deepening, not slowing: the number of people arrested in August was approximately 19,000 higher than in May , so even with flat daily removal rates, the expanding arrest/detention stock creates more removable individuals for the final FY weeks and carryover into reporting lags. - [2026 (ongoing)] DHS's own public messaging has repeatedly claimed cumulative "deportation" totals well above ICE ERO's narrower removal figure — e.g., officials touting more than 515,000 people who have been deported since the president took office and later more than two million illegal aliens have left the U.S., including 1.6 million who voluntarily self-deported, as well as the over 515,000 deportations — showing the administration's preferred counting convention (which can blend expedited removals, CBP returns, and other categories) tends to run far higher than TRAC/analyst recalculations, and if DHS's FY2026 "complete" report leans on this broader methodology, a headline number crossing 500,000 is plausible even if ICE ERO's narrowest removal-only tally does not. - [2026-09-14] Underscoring that the public "356K through mid-July" baseline used by most trend extrapolations is already stale, NewsNation reporting states more than 356,000 deportations have taken place so far in fiscal year 2026, which runs through July 11 and does not include the past month when ICE arrest numbers continued to remain at record levels — meaning two and a half additional months of record-high arrest-driven activity (Aug, Sept) are not yet reflected in any confirmed removals figure. - [2026-09-29] DHS/ICE pressed ahead with contested removals despite litigation risk, with reporting that DHS scheduled a flight to deport migrants involved in a class-action lawsuit… to Burundi, Rwanda, and the Central African Republic , and an ICE jet flew to two African countries even after a circuit court ruling against the scheme — evidence the agency is willing to push volume through legally contested channels right up to FY-end rather than pause for compliance. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is not a change in ICE's narrowly-defined daily removal pace (still ~1,100-1,200/day per most recent trackers) but (1) a late-FY capacity unlock — new aircraft, a new Ohio flight hub, and a Supreme Court-cleared resumption of third-country removals — colliding with a swelling arrest/court-order backlog (741,870 judicial removal orders through August, record 43K-51K monthly ICE arrests June-August) that ICE could draw down in a year-end surge; and (2) the real possibility that DHS's "complete" FY2026 reporting uses the administration's historically broader counting convention (which has produced headline figures like 515,000+ "deportations") rather than ICE ERO's narrower removals-only metric that analysts have used to project ~450-480K. NOT FOUND: No confirmed ICE biweekly data point newer than the July data (~356,389) was located despite searching; no official August/September FYTD removal figure or FY2026 year-end "locked" total has yet been published; no primary-source accounting of how many of the record June-August arrests have since been converted into actual removals.

YES means: ICE's completed FY2026 (Oct 1, 2025–Sep 30, 2026) removal total, once "complete data is available," is counted by the agency as exceeding 500,000. - [2026-09-17] Reuters data reviewed by Davis Vanguard/Newsweek show that even as ICE arrests hit a third straight monthly record (~51,000 in August), daily deportation rates remained largely consistent at approximately 1,200, a disparity attributed to pending legal claims, the absence of final removal orders, and logistical limitations in transportation , confirming the removal pace did not accelerate into Q4 FY2026. - [2026-09-17] The same Reuters-sourced reporting explicitly notes the arrest-removal gap is widening, not narrowing: the number of people arrested in August was approximately 19,000 higher than in May, even though the average daily deportations were similar during the two months — i.e., months of surging enforcement activity have not translated into a commensurate removals acceleration. - [2026-09-20 approx.] A separate write-up of the same data states deportations have not increased at the same rate… removals have remained relatively steady at 1,200 per day, despite the sharp increase in arrests , pointing to court backlogs and lack of final removal orders as structural, not temporary, bottlenecks. - [2026-09-17] Mechanism cited for the stall: the immigration enforcement process moves through several stages: arrest, detention, immigration proceedings, removal order, and then physical transportation to the receiving country. A bottleneck at any stage affects the final removal count , and pending asylum and other legal claims can delay removal in many cases… some nations have at times refused or delayed acceptance of deportees . - [~2026-08-27] A DHS-specific government shutdown began in mid-February 2026 arising from a congressional standoff over ICE/CBP conduct reforms following the January 2026 Minnesota shootings; per a House member's shutdown explainer, this DHS shutdown is happening due to disagreements on ICE/CBP reforms…Congress extended funding for DHS until February 13, 2026 to negotiate sufficient reforms…Congress was unable to agree on a compromise, and as a result DHS is now shut down — a disruption to normal DHS operations layered on top of the FY2026 enforcement push that the earlier ~460K pace-based projections did not price in. - [~2026-08-27] Even under that shutdown, ICE removal operations were designated essential and continued, but non-essential DHS functions are suspended and non-essential DHS employees are furloughed without pay. Many DHS contracts will be suspended, which will likely force private companies that do business with DHS may have to furlough their employees as well — plausibly contributing to the transportation/logistics bottlenecks cited by Reuters for the August removals stall. - [2026-09 (undated, ~48 days old)] USAFacts' independent tracker, using ICE's own early-FY2026 data (Oct 2025–Jan 2026), projected between October 2025 and January 2026, ICE removed 144,378 individuals; on pace to reach over 430,000 total removals by the end of FY 2026 — a lower full-year projection than the 460K figure cited by other analysts, underscoring that multiple independent trackers cluster well under 500,000. - [Arithmetic, based on confirmed mid-July 356,389 FYTD figure] With roughly 81 days left in FY2026 after the mid-July data point and a confirmed, steady ~1,200/day pace through August (not the earlier 1,260-1,500/day range), the added removals for the remainder of the year are only ~97,000, implying a full-year total near 453,000–460,000 — comfortably below the 500,000 threshold even before accounting for the typical year-end reporting slowdown. - [2026-07-15] ICE itself has a documented recent pattern of delayed and incomplete data releases blamed on shutdowns, with the agency's spokesperson stating in mid-July that the agency blames government shutdowns for the delay, despite billions in new funding… An ICE spokesperson blamed a series of government shutdowns for what the agency described as a delay in publishing the data… "ICE is working diligently to the report [sic] and corresponding data out as soon as possible," which both evidences operational friction and raises the risk that the "complete data" required for resolution may not even clearly show removals exceeding 500,000 by the time it's finalized. - [Historical base rate, reconfirmed] Across FY2014–FY2025, no fiscal year has ever reached even 440,000 removals (FY2025 peak 319,980; cited by multiple sources above), meaning a jump to above 500,000 in FY2026 would require an unprecedented ~57%+ single-year surge beyond any prior record, a bar the current steady ~1,200/day pace does not clear. - [Resolution-technicality note] The market's own rule that it "will resolve once complete data is available for FY2026" invites a multi-week-to-multi-month lag (ICE's historical ~6-week September–October reporting gap, as already flagged by colleagues) during which no updated FYTD figure beyond the stale mid-July ~356K print has been found in this search, reinforcing that the most recent hard numbers available point to a sub-500,000 outcome. BOTTOM LINE: The most recent confirmed pace data (Reuters-sourced, through August 2026) shows removals holding steady at ~1,200/day despite record arrests, and a DHS-specific shutdown since mid-February 2026 has added operational friction; straight-line arithmetic from the last confirmed FYTD figure (356,389 as of mid-July) to FY-end yields roughly 450,000–460,000, consistent with independent trackers' ~430,000–460,000 projections and well under the 500,000 threshold, with no fiscal year in ICE's history ever having reached that level. NOT FOUND: No ICE/DHS biweekly data release newer than the mid-July 2026 (~356,389 FYTD) figure was located despite searching through early October 2026; no official "locked" FY2026 year-end total; no explicit confirmation of exact removal-pace figures for September 2026 (only August's ~1,200/day via Reuters); no primary-source detail on how much the February–2026 DHS shutdown specifically reduced removal throughput.