How many billionaires will New York City lose this year? — At least 3

- [2026-01-15] Hurun Global Rich List 2026 snapshot counted New York City as the world's top billionaire city with 146 billionaires, up from 92 in 2020 (third year running as #1 city). Source: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-worlds-top-billionaire-cities-in-2026/ - [2026-03-10] Forbes' 40th annual World's Billionaires list (published March 2026) reported a record global total of 3,428 billionaires worth $20.1 trillion, with the U.S. hitting a record 989 billionaires nationally. Source: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260310629058/en - [2026-03-26] Citing Forbes-based Oxfam America data, Fortune reported "New York is home to 154 billionaires boasting a collective fortune of $975.7 billion, according to a new report from Oxfam America" , with billionaire wealth in the state up 11.6% year-over-year. Source: https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/new-york-home-to-154-billionaires-worth-975-billion-some-making-2-million-an-hour/ - [2026-08-01] Altrata's 13th-edition Billionaire Census (covering 2025, published August 2026) put New York City's billionaire count at 164, the highest of any city tracked, after the city "added 12 billionaires in 2025 via the AI boom" . Source: https://247wallst.com/personal-finance/2026/09/12/new-york-now-has-more-billionaires-than-almost-every-country-on-earth/ - [2026-09-12] The same Altrata-based analysis notes NYC's lead over rival cities (Hong Kong 106, San Francisco 99, Singapore 75) is widening, and that "The city's lead is widening, and its closest competition now comes from Singapore and San Francisco" , implying no near-term collapse in count. Source: https://247wallst.com/personal-finance/2026/09/12/new-york-now-has-more-billionaires-than-almost-every-country-on-earth/ - [2026-09-16] Forbes 400 (U.S.-only, wealthiest Americans, different methodology/subset) listed 54 New York City billionaires on that narrower list — a figure not comparable to the "all billionaires residing in NYC" counts above, since Forbes 400 only includes the top 400 richest Americans nationally. Source: https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/54-new-york-billionaires-worth-combined-722-2b-make-exclusive-forbes-400 - [2026-09-21] Stacker/Forbes-sourced "Richest billionaires in New York" tracker (net worth data as of Sept 21, 2026) continued to list dozens of NYC-resident billionaires including Rupert Murdoch, Israel Englander, John Paulson, confirming an intact, large roster of NYC billionaires into autumn 2026. Source: https://stacker.com/stories/new-york/richest-billionaires-new-york - [2025-11 to 2025-12] Earlier Forbes/UBS-style counts in late 2025 (prior to the March 2026 Forbes list) already placed NYC around 106-123 billionaires depending on methodology, showing the count was already near or above the 120 threshold well before 2026 began. Source: https://travelpander.com/city-with-most-billionaires-in-us/ and https://hudsonvalleypost.com/richest-people-living-in-new-york/ BOTTOM LINE: Every major 2026-dated tracker of New York City's billionaire population (Hurun: 146 in Jan 2026; Forbes/Oxfam: 154 in March 2026; Altrata: 164 in Aug 2026) places the count well above 120 and shows the figure rising, not falling, during 2026 — driven largely by AI-fueled wealth gains. No source found shows NYC's billionaire count dropping anywhere near 120, let alone below it, at any point in 2025 or 2026. NOT FOUND: An official, singular "resolution source" list that Kalshi itself would use to adjudicate (e.g., a specific Forbes "Billionaires by City" page for 2026); any report of a sudden mass billionaire exodus or wealth collapse in NYC during 2026; any count below 120 from any dated source in 2025-2026.

- [2022-04-06] Forbes' city rankings had New York City at the city in the world where the most billionaires live, with 107 tycoons residing in the Big Apple , continuing a long uptrend from prior years. - [2023 Forbes "Cities With Most Billionaires"] NYC's count fell to 101, the only year-over-year decline in the past decade of the Forbes series: New York City reclaimed the top spot as the city with the most billionaires in 2023, with 101 billionaires calling it home, despite losing six billionaires from the previous year (2022 bear market in tech/crypto drove this rare drop). - [2024-04-26] Forbes reported a rebound: New York City once again is home to the most billionaires in the world: It's the primary residence of an estimated 110 billionaires who are worth a collective $694 billion , a gain of nine. - [2025-04-02] Forbes' next annual count showed continued growth, not decline: The Big Apple is home to the most billionaires yet again, with 123 of them—worth a combined $759 billion. New York City has ranked as the top city for billionaires for all but one of the past 12 years (+13 YoY). - [2026-03-10] Forbes' 40th annual World's Billionaires list (the parent list feeding the city count used by this market) found a record global and US billionaire population: this year's list features 3,428 billionaires, the most since the list's inception in 1987... the United States has more billionaires than any other country, now boasting a record 989 , up from 902 — an 87-person net US gain, implying continued growth pressure on NYC's count rather than a decline. - [2026-06-18] An independent Hurun Global Rich List snapshot (different methodology, higher baseline) also showed growth, not loss: New York ranks first with 146 billionaires, but Chinese cities dominate the upper ranks… New York leads the world with 146 billionaires , and a BusinessStats compilation of the same series notes New York grew from 92 billionaires in 2020 to 146 in 2026 , an unbroken multi-year uptrend. - [2026-08 (published)] Altrata's 13th Billionaire Census, covering 2025 data, likewise showed a gain rather than a loss: New York's population of 164 billionaires is larger than that of almost every country in the world... The city added 12 billionaires year-on-year, an 8% rise . - [2026-03-26] A Fortune/Oxfam-sourced figure (yet another count) also trended up: New York is home to 154 billionaires boasting a collective fortune of $975.7 billion, according to a new report from Oxfam America , with billionaire wealth up double digits year-on-year. - Base-rate takeaway from the Forbes series (the one most proximate to the market's 120-threshold framing, since it had NYC at 123 just before this market's window): over the last ~13 annual readings, NYC's billionaire count declined year-over-year only once (2022→2023, during a global market downturn), and even that drop (6) barely exceeded the "at least 3" threshold; every other year has shown net gains of 8-13+. - No market downturn comparable to 2022 has occurred in 2025-2026; to the contrary, sources repeatedly cite an "AI-powered stock market boom" driving record billionaire wealth ( "The planet added more than one billionaire per day over the past twelve months as the AI-powered stock market boom boosted fortunes to previously unimaginable heights" ), which historically correlates with NYC gaining, not losing, billionaires. - No other prediction-market or expert forecast specifically targeting a NYC billionaire-count decline (on Polymarket or elsewhere) was found; this Kalshi series appears unique, with sibling strikes at "at least 1" (<122) and "at least 2" (<121) representing less extreme thresholds than "at least 3" (<120). BOTTOM LINE: Across every major tracker (Forbes, Hurun, Altrata, Oxfam/Fortune) NYC's billionaire count has risen essentially every year this decade except one mild market-downturn year, and 2025-2026 has been described as a record wealth-creation boom; the historical base rate therefore strongly favors NYC adding, not losing, billionaires, making a drop of 3+ (to below 120) a low-base-rate, counter-trend outcome. NOT FOUND: An explicit Forbes "Cities With the Most Billionaires 2026" article (the direct successor to the 2025 "123" count) giving NYC's exact 2026 figure under Forbes' specific methodology was not located; only proxy/aggregate indicators (record US and global Forbes billionaire counts, plus Hurun/Altrata/Oxfam figures all showing NYC growth) were available.

YES means: New York City's billionaire count (as measured by whatever source Kalshi uses to resolve) falls below 120 at some point in 2026 — i.e., the city would need to lose at least 24-44 billionaires from the 146-164 range cited by Hurun/Oxfam/Altrata in 2026, or the resolution relies on a lower-count methodology that was already near the threshold. - [2026-01-01] Mayor Zohran Mamdani took office having campaigned on raising the city's top tax rate from 3.9% to 5.9%, which combined with state rates would push the wealthiest New Yorkers' total tax burden toward almost 17%, the highest in the country — a concrete, enacted-agenda policy shock not reflected in the city-level headcounts researched so far. Source: https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/the-mamdani-effect-in-new-york-can-the-city-afford-a-millionaire-tax - [2026-04-15] Mamdani and Gov. Hochul jointly announced the state's first-ever pied-à-terre tax, filmed outside Ken Griffin's $238 million penthouse, explicitly targeting "ultrawealthy out-of-city residents and global elites who use New York City real estate as a vehicle for wealth storage rather than as homes." Source: https://www.nyc.gov/mayors-office/news/2026/04/mayor-mamdani--governor-hochul-announce-state-s-first-pied-a-ter - [2026-05-27] The tax was passed by the State Legislature and took effect July 1, 2026, with rates up to "a 6.5% tax" annually on properties above $5 million — the first concrete, enacted (not just proposed) wealth-targeting measure of the year, giving the YES case an actual policy mechanism rather than mere rhetoric. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/new-york-mamdani-pied-a-terre-tax-passes.html - [2026-05-06] In direct response, Citadel founder Ken Griffin said he would add "far more jobs in Miami" as a "direct consequence" of Mamdani's video, and separately threatened to scrap a $6 billion Park Avenue development — a named billionaire publicly reallocating business activity away from NYC. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/billionaire-ken-griffin-scales-back-230745028.html - [2026-05-11] NY1's own reporting on the exodus fears still found, as of mid-May, that "big finance jobs are staying, at least for now" — showing even sympathetic exodus coverage could not yet document actual departures, undercutting the near-term mechanism's strength. - [2026-07-15] A Citizens Budget Commission study (cited on Fox News and Legal Insurrection) found New York's share of U.S. millionaires fell from 12.7% in 2010 to 8.7% in 2022 , and estimated the exodus cost the state roughly $11 billion in lost 2022 tax revenue — establishing a pre-existing, multi-year structural outflow trend that predates Mamdani and could compound with new taxes. Source: https://www.foxnews.com/media/hochul-confronted-study-showing-millionaire-exodus-new-york-city - [2026-03-17] A parallel case study from California — where a proposed 5% one-time billionaire wealth tax triggered Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Peter Thiel and others to establish Florida residency ahead of a Jan. 1, 2026 cutoff — demonstrates that billionaires do relocate measurably and quickly once a wealth/asset-based (not just income) tax is enacted, which is the exact type of tax (property-value-based pied-à-terre surcharge) NYC passed in May 2026. Source: https://fortune.com/2026/03/17/6-billionaires-left-california-billionaire-tax-newsom-brin-page-thiel-spielberg-revenue/ - [2026-09-23] A Forbes.com.au tracker of the world's richest shows Jeff Bezos's residence listed as Miami, Florida and Larry Page having "bought a home in Florida, apparently in response to California's threat to tax billionaires' wealth" — confirming that even non-NYC billionaires are responding to wealth-tax threats with residency moves, the same dynamic NYC's pied-à-terre tax could trigger among its own 19%-foreign-born, high-mobility billionaire cohort. Source: https://forbes.com.au/news/billionaires/top-10-richest-people-in-world - [2026-05-09] Air Mail's reporting notes the pied-à-terre tax specifically targets investor/non-resident billionaires who "store their wealth" in NYC real estate without living there full time — exactly the population most likely to simply deregister as NYC residents (shifting Forbes/Altrata's residency-based count) rather than sell real assets, offering a low-friction path to a falling headcount even without any wealth decline. Source: https://airmail.news/issues/2026-5-9/pied-a-terror BOTTOM LINE: The YES case rests on a real, enacted mechanism — Mamdani's 2026 tax agenda culminating in the first-ever pied-à-terre tax (effective July 1, 2026) plus a pre-existing CBC-documented millionaire-outflow trend and high-profile billionaire threats (Griffin, Apollo) — which could, if it accelerates residency reclassification among NYC's many non-resident-leaning billionaires, push a headcount-based tally below 120; however, no source yet shows actual departures large enough to approach that threshold, only threats and one still-pending tax's early effects. NOT FOUND: Any confirmed, named billionaire who has formally changed primary residency OUT of New York City in 2026 (the Brin/Bezos Florida references found are either unconfirmed tabloid/YouTube claims or predate 2026); any count below 120 in any 2025-2026 dataset; data on pied-à-terre tax-driven residency changes since its July 2026 effective date.

YES means: New York City's resident billionaire count, as measured by whatever source Kalshi uses for resolution (most likely the Forbes "World's Billionaires"/city list), falls to under 120 at some point during 2026 — i.e., NYC must have *lost* at least 3 billionaires relative to its 2026 starting count, dropping the headline total below the 120 threshold by year-end. - [2025-04-02] The most recent Forbes-methodology baseline immediately preceding this market's window already had NYC at 123 billionaires, 13 more than last year — meaning the market needs a swing of 4+ below that base just to cross 120, a larger drop than all but one year this decade. - [2022-04-06→2023] The only precedent for a Forbes-count NYC decline in over a decade is the 2022→2023 drop, and even that global-bear-market year only cost NYC six billionaires from the previous year , landing at 101 — a decline that, scaled to the 2025 base of 123, would still leave NYC near 117, close to but illustrating how rare and small such drops have been even in a down year. - [2026-01-15] A different, broader methodology (Hurun) shows NYC's count still climbing, not falling, inside the 2026 window: New York leads the world with 146 billionaires, the highest concentration of billionaire wealth in any city... but the gap is narrowing — a cross-check indicating no collapse in the city's ultra-wealthy population as of the start of the market year. - [2026-03-30] Even during the sharpest reported 2026 wealth shock — the AI/tech selloff that hit top individual fortunes — the damage was concentrated in paper net-worth, not headcount: Six out of the 10 top richest people in the world have experienced wealth declines between $30 billion and $60 billion this calendar year... Jeff Bezos's net worth is down $30.7 billion since January, whereas Mark Zuckerberg has faced a decline of $46.3 billion — multi-billion-dollar haircuts to centi-billionaires do not push anyone below the $1B threshold, illustrating a structural buffer protecting the headcount even in a correction. - [2026-03-26] Days after that reported market slump, the city's independently tallied billionaire count was still rising, not falling: New York is home to 154 billionaires. Together they're worth $975.7 billion , with Oxfam citing double-digit year-on-year wealth growth — confirming the March selloff did not knock the city's count anywhere near 120. - [2026-08 (published)] The most current full-year tracker available, Altrata's census (data for 2025 full year), still shows NYC far above the threshold and still adding billionaires: the city "added 12 billionaires year-on-year" to reach 164, an 8% rise, the highest of any city tracked — a base so far above 120 that even a repeat of 2022's rare 6-billionaire drop would leave NYC near 158. - [2026-10-01] Macro conditions in the final quarter before resolution show volatility but no crash: Stocks posted modest gains on the first trading day of October, clawing back earlier declines as Treasury yields retreated... The broad S&P 500 slipped 0.5% last month, but still added 2% for the quarter — a mild pullback, not the kind of sustained bear market historically associated with the one NYC billionaire-count decline on record (2022). - [2026-10-04] Commentary continues to flag crash *risk* rather than confirmed crash reality this close to year-end: these risks are mounting as the S&P 500 trades at the second-highest valuation in its history, behind only the peak of the dot-com internet bubble — i.e., as of early October 2026, no realized downturn has occurred that would be expected to cut NYC's count by the double-digit margin needed to breach 120 from any of the 2026 baselines (123, 146, 154, or 164). - [2026-09-21] A live, name-by-name tracker of NYC billionaires as of late September 2026 still lists dozens of residents intact, with no reported individual drop-offs below $1B, reinforcing that the roster feeding any 2026 year-end count remains large and stable into Q4. - Mechanism/technicality: because NYC's 2026 baseline across every tracker (123–164) sits 3–44 billionaires above the 120 threshold, "losing at least 3" is necessary but not sufficient for YES — the resolution also requires the *net* 2026 count (after new billionaires are added, e.g., via IPOs, AI wealth creation, or Kalshi founders becoming billionaires per the Feb 2026 Forbes note) to fall under 120, a bar that history shows is rarely cleared even in down years given simultaneous billionaire creation offsetting losses. - No single, sudden 2026 event (no reported mass relocation, no reported wave of deaths/estate breakups, no single market crash day) was found in any source that would mechanically remove 25+ billionaires from NYC's 2025 base (164) or even 4+ from the lower 2025 Forbes base (123) within the remaining trading window to Dec 31, 2026. BOTTOM LINE: Every dated 2026 count (Forbes-adjacent 123 in Apr 2025, Hurun 146 in Jan 2026, Oxfam/Fortune 154 in Mar 2026, Altrata 164 in Aug 2026) sits well clear of 120, billionaire-level wealth shocks in 2026 have hit top fortunes' dollar values without pushing headcounts near the threshold, and the one historical precedent for a NYC billionaire-count decline (2022-23, -6) was both mild and tied to a much larger, sustained bear market not currently evidenced in Q4 2026 — all of which favors a NO resolution (count staying at or above 120). NOT FOUND: A single authoritative, dated "NYC billionaire count as of late 2026" figure under whatever exact methodology Kalshi uses to resolve this contract; confirmation of Kalshi's specific resolution source; any report of a realized (not merely warned-about) 2026 market crash severe enough to be comparable to 2022's bear market.