Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

- [2026-07-11] Incumbent GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham, who had already won the June 9 Republican primary, won the Republican nomination in the June 9 primaries, but died on July 11. (en.wikipedia.org) - [2026-07-14] Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Graham's sister, Darline Graham, to the seat; appointed to her brother's seat and encouraged to run with the support of President Donald Trump, Graham defeated congressman Ralph Norman in a runoff on August 25. (en.wikipedia.org) - [2026-08-25] Darline Graham won the special GOP runoff with 52.5% of the vote after no candidate received a majority in an August 11 special primary. (en.wikipedia.org) - [2026-06-09] On the Democratic side, Andrews won the Democratic nomination with 61.5% of the vote over former Paine College administrator Brandon Brown. (en.wikipedia.org) - [2026-09-01] An independent Abacus Data poll (Aug 26–28) showed Graham leading Andrews by 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent , though among registered voters Andrews led by one point, 48 percent to 47 percent, suggesting the race could come down to turnout. (yahoo.com) - [2026-09-09] An InsiderAdvantage poll gave Sen. Darline Graham a two-point lead over Dr. Annie Andrews, 45.1% to 43.2%. (foxcarolina.com) - [2026-09-28] A Trafalgar Group poll (Sept 23–25) found GOP Senate candidate Darline Graham only has a single-point advantage over her Democratic opponent, Annie Andrews, in a tight South Carolina race. (dailycaller.com) - [2026-09-29] The Charleston City Paper reported the same Trafalgar poll put Graham at 43.4% of the vote – just 1.2% more than Andrews , with the SC Democratic Party director calling it significant because it's a Republican-leaning firm "fairly accurate." (charlestoncitypaper.com) - [2026-09-29] A polling aggregator (PoliAgg) put the polling average through Sept 29 at Darline Graham 45.5%, Annie Andrews 44.1% , with its model giving 4% Andrews (D), 96% Graham (R) win probability. (poliagg.com) - [2026-09-23] Cook Political Report rates the race "Solid R"/"Likely R" as of Sept 23, noting Graham "has performed unevenly in debates and could face backlash for being elevated to the job purely because of her family name," while Andrews "is running a real race" and a new Democratic group launched $2.5 million in ads to help her, but she still must prove she can get out of the mid-40s in polling. - [2026-10-02] The Washington Times reported Democrats believe they have a real shot, quoting Jaime Harrison (2020 Democratic nominee) saying he told Andrews "I would give my right arm to run in this type of environment." The piece also noted the appointed Republican incumbent, Sen. Darline Graham, is a publicity-shy political newbie, and her campaign is causing concerns. (washingtontimes.com) - [2026-09-30] A separate forecast model (Pollsmax/smarter.vote) still gave Graham an 85–93% modeled win probability with an estimated Republican margin of roughly +9 to +10 points, rating the race "Likely R." BOTTOM LINE: Darline Graham remains the clear favorite as the Republican appointee/nominee in deep-red South Carolina, but an unusually turbulent year (Lindsey Graham's death, a hastily chosen successor who has underwhelmed in debates, and a well-funded, visible Democratic nominee in Annie Andrews) has tightened polling from double digits to roughly 1–5 points in several late-September surveys, keeping this technically competitive but still Likely/Solid Republican heading into the Nov. 3 general. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any debate between Graham and Andrews having actually occurred as of Oct 5, 2026; no AP/Fox/NBC race call (election is still a month away); no post-September 29 poll located.

- [1998-11-03] South Carolina's last Democratic Senate win was Fritz Hollings in 1998; Democrats have not won a Senate election in the state since 1998 , making this the single longest Democratic drought of any state currently holding Senate elections — a 28-year base rate of 0-for-7 (2002, 2008, 2014, 2020, plus 2016/2014/2022 for the other seat) for the reference class "SC Senate general election." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina - [2020-11-03] The closest recent comparison, Jaime Harrison's $130M campaign against Lindsey Graham, is the modern high-water mark for SC Democratic Senate efforts, yet Graham survived a record-breaking $130M Democratic challenge in 2020 (Jaime Harrison) and still won by 10.2 points — showing even a historically funded, high-profile Democrat fell well short. https://uspollingdata.com/senate-2026/south-carolina/ - [2022-11-08] In the state's other Senate seat, the 2022 election saw Tim Scott win 62.88% to Krystle Matthews' 37.01% , a 25.9-point blowout — reinforcing that SC's statewide partisan floor for Republicans is very high even in a weak GOP cycle nationally. - [2026-07-11] This race took an unusual turn: Lindsey Graham won the Republican nomination in the June 9 primaries but died on July 11; appointed to her brother's seat and encouraged to run with the support of Donald Trump, Darline Graham defeated congressman Ralph Norman in a runoff on August 25 with 52.5% of the vote . This mid-cycle succession (appointed, less battle-tested nominee replacing a four-term incumbent) is a rare event with no close historical analogue in this seat's modern history. - [2026-10-02] Current polling aggregates show a mid-single-digit Republican lead: polls through Sep 29, 2026, rate the race "Likely Republican," with Darline Graham (R) leading by 9.2 points in the forecast model, and the latest poll (Trafalgar Group, Sep 25, 2026) showing Graham 43.4, Andrews 42.3 — narrower than 2020's 10.3-point final margin but still a mid-single-digit Republican edge on average. - [2026-10-02] Raw poll-average (not model-adjusted) in the same tracker: Darline Graham 45.7, Annie Andrews 43.2 across 4 recent polls — i.e., roughly a 2.5-point raw polling gap, smaller than the model's fundamentals-weighted 9.2-point projection, indicating a real tightening versus historical SC Senate margins but still implying the GOP nominee as better-than-even favorite. - [2026-09-30] Partisan fundamentals for the seat remain strongly Republican: Decision Desk HQ's model blends mostly structural/fundamentals data and lists the Generic Ballot as D+7.1 nationally but a Projected Margin of R+5 in this specific race , showing the seat's Republican lean more than offsetting a favorable Democratic national environment. https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/south-carolina-us-senate-general-election - [2026-09-01] Partisan-lean context: Trump won South Carolina by 17.9 points in 2024 (58.2% vs. 40.4%) , and Republicans control every statewide office except the state's comptroller office and have supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, both U.S. Senate seats, and all but one seat in the U.S. House delegation — an exceptionally deep-red structural baseline against which any Democratic Senate win would be a significant outlier. - [2026-10-02] Some individual polls have shown a near-tie or Democratic edge at points this cycle (e.g., two Impact Research/Democratic-aligned polls in August showed the race tied or Andrews ahead by 3), but these are partisan-sponsored polls and the non-partisan/GOP-leaning pollsters (InsiderAdvantage, Trafalgar) have consistently shown Graham ahead by 1-2 points in September, suggesting house-effect-adjusted reality is closer to a small-to-mid single digit GOP lead rather than a toss-up. - [2026-06-09] Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, won her primary comfortably: Andrews won the Democratic nomination with 61.5% of the vote over former Paine College administrator Brandon Brown , giving Democrats a credible, well-funded nominee, though fundraising/polling base rates in this seat have not translated into wins even for strong candidates historically (see Harrison 2020). BOTTOM LINE: The reference class — South Carolina Senate elections since 1998 — has resolved Republican in every instance (0-for-7+), including a $130M Democratic near-miss in 2020 that still lost by 10 points; current 2026 polling/model averages show the Republican (Darline Graham, replacing her deceased brother) favored by roughly 2.5–9 points depending on methodology, a tighter-than-historical but still clearly Republican-favored race. Outside-view priors therefore strongly favor a Republican win, with the main uncertainty being whether the mid-cycle candidate substitution and nationally favorable Democratic environment are enough to break a 28-year losing streak. NOT FOUND: No major nonpartisan forecaster (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections) rating was retrieved for the post-substitution race specifically (only "Likely/Lean Republican" aggregator labels from Poliwave/DDHQ); could not confirm whether any of the three named resolution sources (AP, Fox News, NBC) have published their own race ratings for this specific contest.

YES means: Annie Andrews (D) is declared the winner of the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate race by AP, Fox News, and NBC (or via certification if they split), flipping the seat Democratic for the first time since 1998. - [2026-09-29] A Trafalgar poll (Sept 23–25) shows the 18-29, 30-39, and 40-49 age groups all broke for Andrews in Trafalgar's poll, with almost 60% of respondents between the ages of 18 and 29 saying they would vote for the Democrat , suggesting Andrews is consolidating a favorable turnout coalition if younger voters show up. - [2026-09-16] A Democratic-aligned outside group escalated spending: Democratic super PAC Fresh Start SC launched a $2.5 million ad campaign on Sept. 16 targeting Graham's position on healthcare policy which has aired on TV as well as online on YouTube and Google , adding paid-media muscle beyond Andrews' own campaign. - [2026-09-03] Andrews' own account of momentum: she told Semafor The Democratic candidate is releasing polls showing her race tied, imploring Democrats to acknowledge the uniquely strong position she occupies in a reliably red state , and said she raised $1.2 million in the six days after Graham narrowly defeated Rep. Norman — a fundraising surge immediately following the GOP runoff. - [2026-09-03] Jaime Harrison, the 2020 Democratic nominee who lost by 10 points, argues the opponent is weaker this cycle: I ran against a three-term incumbent with a national fundraising network, a powerful political operation and decades of relationships across South Carolina. Darline doesn't have any of that (paraphrased quote per Semafor). - [2026-09-03] National Democrats are watching but not yet fully committing: Senate Majority PAC spokesperson said Andrews "is running a phenomenal campaign, and has made this Senate race increasingly competitive," while DSCC called her campaign "incredibly strong" — signaling potential for late outside investment to close the gap, though Schumer named Kansas/Mississippi as the next tier before South Carolina as of August. - [2026-09-04] Graham's financial edge is thinner than her brother's war chest implies on paper: her own committee raised $347,000 individually and spent $95,000 between July 23–Aug 5, and FEC filings as of Aug. 5 show her campaign's cash on hand was just over $251,000 before NRSC transfers — a comparatively small standalone sum next to Andrews' $4.1M cash-on-hand. - [2026-08-19] Graham's campaign has also faced a compliance problem: Graham's nascent Senate campaign received more than $24,000 worth of contributions over the legal limit in the course of a single week, according to a letter the Federal Election Commission sent the campaign on Monday , forcing refunds equal to roughly 10% of her then-cash-on-hand — a distraction and minor drag on her treasury during the campaign's critical early months. - [2026-10-02] Graham herself has publicly signaled a money crunch going into the stretch run: in a fundraising email she warned supporters that voters "are only hearing from Annie Andrews" and "we're running out of time to get on the air" , and Trafalgar's own pollster Robert Cahaly said the Graham campaign does not "have the money they need" — an admission from the GOP side that paid media is currently lopsided toward Andrews. - [2026-10-11] An SCETV-hosted, statewide-broadcast debate is confirmed for Oct. 11, 7 p.m., in Columbia, with Dr. Annie Andrews, Sen. Darline Graham and Dr. Kasie Whitener participating — Andrews' campaign has pointed to Graham's shaky primary-runoff debate performance (including a "debate flub regarding Taiwan" reported by Semafor) as a point of vulnerability she can exploit live and statewide just over three weeks before Election Day. - [2026-09-01] Internal Democratic messaging (Rep. Jim Clyburn) frames the race as winnable purely on turnout mechanics: Clyburn said on NBC's "Meet the Press" that the only thing that would stop Andrews from winning "is for us to not do our part to turn out the vote" — indicating the path to YES runs through base mobilization, not persuasion, in a state Trump won by ~18 points. - [2026-08-25] Writing-in confusion around runner-up Ralph Norman (who told reporters "Vote for Ralph Norman" before his office walked it back) shows some lingering GOP-side fracture post-runoff that Andrews could exploit if even a small bloc of anti-Graham Republicans defect or stay home. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest realistic YES path is Andrews converting her fundraising/paid-media advantage, Graham's comparatively thin standalone war chest and FEC compliance stumble, and a consolidating youth/anti-incumbent coalition into a turnout-driven upset, with the Oct. 11 debate and continued national Democratic investment (Fresh Start SC, possible late DSCC/SMP money) as the key remaining catalysts to convert a 1-5 point polling deficit into a win; this remains a come-from-behind, lower-probability path riding on unusually favorable circumstances rather than a favored outcome. NOT FOUND: No post-Oct 11 debate polling or results yet (debate is same-day as this report); no confirmed DSCC/Senate Majority PAC ad-buy dollar figure for South Carolina as of Oct 5; no Q3 (July–Sept) FEC filing yet available for either candidate's full fundraising totals (next deadline is mid-October).

YES means: Democratic nominee Dr. Annie Andrews is declared the winner of the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate general election, called by AP, Fox News, and NBC for the same candidate (or certified as the winner). - [2026-10-02] Despite tightened polling, the **NRSC still has a cash-on-hand edge over the DSCC and is directing resources to South Carolina**: NRSC coordinated spending filings show the committee earmarked money for Darline Graham among nine prioritized candidates, and reported "more than $16 million cash-on-hand advantage over the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee" (washingtonsun.com), signaling the national GOP apparatus still sees the seat as defensible rather than lost, unlike races it has fully abandoned. - [2026-10-02] Outside-group spending has heavily favored Graham in the race to date: Darline Graham faced just $392,000 in opposition spending and benefited from at least $5 million in outside support, FEC filings show. This structural financial tailwind continues into the general even as Andrews out-fundraises Graham's campaign account directly. - [2026-10-03] Despite the polling tightening, betting-market-adjacent odds trackers still show Graham a heavy favorite: a prediction-market aggregator pegged Graham at 87% and Andrews at 13% as of Oct 3, 2026 (predictionedge.com), reflecting that traders have not treated the single-digit Trafalgar/InsiderAdvantage polls as decisive. - [2026-09-30] Cook Political Report's shift was only from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican" Cook Political Report shifted the South Carolina Senate race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican" as Senator Darline Graham, pictured celebrating her GOP runoff win, seeks a full six-year term. — a modest downgrade, not a toss-up or lean-Democrat rating, indicating professional handicappers still see Graham as the clear favorite. - [2026-09-30] A GOP-grassroots complication (write-in support for defeated runner-up Ralph Norman) is a wildcard that could fragment the Republican vote, but Cook's analysis frames this as a risk to Graham's margin, not evidence Andrews is favored, since any Norman-aligned protest voters are unlikely to cross over to Andrews. - [2026-09-26/28] Even the closest polls still show Graham ahead, not Andrews: the Trafalgar Group survey (Sept 23-25, n=1,087) had the Trafalgar Group, found Graham leading Andrews by just one point — with a just under three-point error margin — among likely South Carolina voters , and InsiderAdvantage's mid-September poll similarly showed Graham ahead by two points — a consistent pattern of the Republican retaining a (if narrow) lead in every poll since the runoff, none showing Andrews outright ahead among likely voters. - [2026-09-15] Rasmussen's September 14 survey, one of the more recent likely-voter polls, found a wider gap than the Trafalgar/InsiderAdvantage surveys: The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 48% of Likely South Carolina voters would vote for Graham, while 43% would vote for Andrews. This is a reminder that polling house effects vary and not all recent surveys show a 1-point race. - [2026-10-02] A Washington Times report quoting a GOP strategist frames a Democratic win as requiring a "perfect storm": "It is such an uphill battle," said Chip Felkel, a South Carolina-based Republican strategist. "You can't say it is impossible, but you have to have a perfect storm, and they think they are getting close to one with the situation with Sen. Graham." — i.e., even sympathetic/neutral observers frame a Democratic win as an outlier scenario, not the base case. - [2026-10-01] Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar, whose poll shows the closest margin, still called the race a "jump ball" contingent on Republican complacency rather than a lead for Andrews, warning the race is a "jump ball" and the Graham campaign does not "have the money they need," adding "Too many Republican donors think that race is not really a race and not taking the race as seriously as it needs to be," implying the race remains Graham's to lose rather than Andrews' to win. - [2026-10-11 upcoming] The one scheduled head-to-head debate (SCETV, Oct 11) has not yet occurred as of this report; Graham's prior runoff-debate stumble on national security is a known vulnerability, but it has not yet been tested against Andrews specifically, so no new negative Graham event has occurred since the polls above were taken — the status quo "narrow-but-Graham-leads" picture is unchanged pending that event. - [2026-10-05] No evidence found of any independent or nonpartisan poll (as opposed to Impact Research, an Andrews-campaign-sponsored pollster) showing Andrews outright ahead; aggregator models (PoliAgg, Poliwave) built from the same public polls still output "Likely Republican" with Graham forecast leads in the 9-point range even though raw polling has narrowed to roughly 1-3 points. - [1998–2026] The 28-year, 0-for-7+ Republican streak in SC Senate races, and the fact that Jaime Harrison's $130M 2020 campaign still lost by over 10 points, remain the single heaviest status-quo anchor: nothing in the new fundraising, spending, or polling data reviewed here shows a reversal of that pattern, only a narrowing of degree. BOTTOM LINE: Every poll released since the August 25 runoff — InsiderAdvantage, Trafalgar, Rasmussen — still shows Darline Graham, not Andrews, numerically ahead (by 1-5 points), national GOP money (NRSC coordinated spending, outside PAC support) continues to flow disproportionately to Graham, and nonpartisan raters (Cook) and market aggregators alike still classify the race as "Likely Republican," so the no-change/status-quo case for a Republican hold remains intact pending the untested Oct. 11 debate. NOT FOUND: No poll conducted after Sept 29, 2026 was located; no result of the Oct 11 SCETV debate (it has not yet occurred as of Oct 5); no September-quarter (Q3) FEC filing showing Graham's or Andrews's post-Aug 5 cash-on-hand totals or burn rate.