Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in November 2026?

- [2026-09-11] BLS released the August 2026 CPI report: the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August after rising 0.1 percent in July, and over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - [2026-09-11] The all items index rose 3.4 percent for the 12 months ending August as it did for the 12 months ending July. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.4 percent over the year, following a 2.5-percent increase over the 12 months ending July. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - [2026-09-11] Energy was the main driver: the index for gasoline rose 3.9 percent in August, accounting for over one third of the monthly all items increase, and the index for energy increased 2.1 percent over the month. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - [2026-08-12] The prior (July 2026) report showed the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July after falling 0.4 percent in June, with the all items index increasing 3.4 percent over the last 12 months before seasonal adjustment , confirming a step down from June's 3.5% and April's reported 3.8% peak (per secondary source https://www.financecalendar.com/us-cpi-report/). https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08122026.htm - [2026-10-02] Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast puts September 2026 CPI at 3.60 year-over-year percent change, updated 10/02 , suggesting a modest uptick from August's 3.4% but still comfortably below the 3.8% threshold. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting - [2026-10-05] Street/market forecaster consensus for the September 2026 CPI (due Oct 14) is centered around 3.6%-3.7% YoY, per aggregator sites citing "consensus 3.7%, Nowflation forecast 3.60%." https://nowflation.com/cpi-release-dates - [2026-10-14] Next scheduled CPI release (September 2026 data) is confirmed on the BLS site: The Consumer Price Index news release for September 2026 is scheduled to be published on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. (ET). https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf - [2026-11-10] October 2026 CPI data release scheduled; [2026-12-10] November 2026 CPI data (the reference period for this market) is scheduled for release, per multiple trackers citing the official BLS calendar. https://nowflation.com/cpi-release-dates - [2026-09-02] A government shutdown that threatened to begin October 1, 2026 was averted: the government shutdown October 2026 threat did not happen; Trump signed a CR funding the government through December 11 nearly a full month before the deadline. https://govtschemes.org/government-shutdown-october-2026/ - [2026-09-01] The House passed the Senate's funding extension: the chamber passed the Senate-amended bill on September 1 by a 370-48 vote…a wide enough bipartisan majority to send the measure straight to the president's desk. https://govtschemes.org/government-shutdown-october-2026/ - [2026-08-27] A separate, narrower DHS-related funding lapse was reported, but the rest of our federal government remains open, operational and funded at this time — this does not affect BLS/Labor Department operations. https://case.house.gov/government-shutdown/ - [2026-02-13] Earlier in 2026 a brief partial shutdown (Jan 30–Feb 3) delayed the January CPI release from Feb 11 to Feb 13, illustrating the BLS's past practice of pushing CPI dates by only a few days absent a prolonged lapse. https://thriveinmarkets.com/calendar/indicator/cpi/ - [2026-10-05] PCE inflation, a related Fed-preferred gauge, was reported at 3.4 percent in August, down from 3.7 percent in July , reinforcing the disinflationary trend seen in CPI data. https://thehill.com/business/6123510-us-economy-jobs-report-september-bls BOTTOM LINE: As of the latest BLS release (August 2026, published 2026-09-11), headline CPI inflation stands at 3.4% y/y — down from an April 2026 peak near 3.8% — and nowcasts/consensus for September (due Oct 14) and beyond cluster around 3.5-3.7%, well under the 3.8% threshold; with government funding secured through Dec 11, 2026 (no active shutdown), the BLS is on track to release the November 2026 CPI on schedule (Dec 10, 2026), and current trends make a reading above 3.8% for November 2026 unlikely absent a sharp reacceleration. NOT FOUND: No official BLS forecast or Fed staff projection specifically for the November 2026 CPI print was available; no evidence found of any current (October 2026) shutdown affecting BLS operations or threatening the Dec 10, 2026 CPI release date.

- [2026-10-05] Latest actual CPI print: the 12 months ending August 2026 came in at 3.4% YoY (seasonally adjusted monthly +0.4%), unchanged from July's 3.4% and down from an April 2026 peak. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, up from a 0.1% gain in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday; over the past 12 months, the all-items index climbed 3.4%, matching the annual rate recorded through July. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/u-cpi-rose-0-4-123718937.html - [2026-10-01] Trajectory context: inflation has been cooling from a cycle high. August's 3.4% year-over-year increase is down from April's 4.2% peak, and monthly momentum is near zero. https://www.wichitaliberty.org/economics/august-2026-cpi-inflation-analysis/ - [2026-09-11] Street-consensus forecasting has been quite accurate recently: the August print matched consensus exactly, and across the last 27 headline prints tracked, of the last 27 headline CPI prints on this page, the Street consensus matched the print exactly 11 times (within 0.05 percentage points); the latest, August 2026 CPI released September 11, 2026, printed 3.4% against a 3.4% consensus. https://nowflation.com/cpi-release-dates - [2026-10-05] Market-based forward expectations for the next (September 2026) print point to a modest reacceleration, not a drop: Street consensus 3.7% year over year, prior 3.4%; the Nowflation Forecast is 3.60% . https://nowflation.com/cpi-release-dates - [2026-10-05] Trading Economics' model-based short-term outlook also sees inflation ticking up, not down, over the next quarter: Inflation Rate in the United States remained unchanged at 3.40 percent in August; Inflation Rate in the United States is expected to be 3.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi - [2026-10-01] A separate statistical/time-series forecaster (Long Forecast) projects CPI continuing near-current levels into November 2026, not crossing 3.8%: CPI forecast for November 2026. The forecast for the beginning of November 3.440%. Maximum rate 3.689%, while minimum 3.234%. Average interest rate for the month 3.461%. CPI at the end 3.480% . https://longforecast.com/us-cpi - [2026-05-15] The Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters (institutional, long track record since 1968) raised its 2026 inflation call sharply amid tariff effects, but still projects Q4/Q4 2026 headline CPI inflation of only 3.5%, below the 3.8% threshold: Measured on a fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter basis, headline CPI and core CPI inflation in 2026 are expected to average 3.5 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively, up from the previous estimates of 2.6 percent. https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q2-2026 - [2026-10-05] Reference-class/base-rate note: historically FactSet tracking shows headline CPI misses vs. median consensus are common but usually small; over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 37% of the time, matched the median estimate 22% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 42% of the time. This implies consensus (currently clustering 3.5–3.7% for year-end) is a reasonably unbiased, though imperfect, predictor, and misses tend to be on the order of tenths of a point rather than full percentage points. https://insight.factset.com/consumer-price-index-cpi-for-august-2026-is-projected-to-rise-3.3-year-over-year - [2026-01-10 to 2026-02 ] Precedent for data disruption risk: a FY2026 shutdown (Oct 1–Nov 12, 2025) forced BLS to delay/cancel reports; the resumed January 2026 CPI report was itself delayed, and historically it took BLS about 9 days to catch up on a single delayed CPI release once staff were recalled. According to multiple reports published on October 9, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was directed by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to recall staff from furlough to prepare the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This shows the "extended deadline" clause in the rules has real precedent and could matter if a new shutdown recurs around the Nov/Dec 2026 funding deadline. https://www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/warren_letter_to_omb_on_sept_econ_data.pdf - [2026-09-02] Current government-funding status reduces near-term shutdown/data-delay risk for this specific window: Congress passed, and the President signed, a continuing resolution well before the Oct 1, 2026 deadline. Congress moved early, passing a continuing resolution that President Trump signed into law on September 2, 2026 nearly a full month before the deadline; the bill keeps federal agencies funded at current levels through December 11, 2026. This funding runs through Dec 11, 2026 — after the scheduled Nov CPI print, lowering (but not eliminating) risk that a shutdown disrupts the November CPI release needed to resolve this market on schedule. https://govtschemes.org/government-shutdown-october-2026/ BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is mixed-to-mild: headline CPI has been running at 3.4% YoY for two straight months (Jul–Aug 2026), well below the 3.8% bar, but nearly all forward-looking consensus/model forecasts (Street consensus ~3.7%, TradingEconomics ~3.7% by quarter-end, Long Forecast ~3.4–3.5% for Nov) and the SPF's institutional forecast (3.5% Q4/Q4) cluster just under or around 3.5-3.7%, implying "No" is the base-rate-favored outcome, though tariff-driven upside surprises (as seen with the April 2026 peak of 4.2%) and the historical tendency for CPI to beat consensus more often than it undershoots (37% vs 42% in FactSet's 5-year sample) keep some real probability of crossing 3.8% alive. NOT FOUND: Could not find the actual September 2026 CPI print (scheduled for release Oct 14, 2026, after today's date), nor any Kalshi-specific historical base rate for this contract series; also could not confirm whether any new funding lapse is expected around the Dec 11, 2026 deadline that might delay the November CPI release past its Dec 10, 2026 scheduled date.

YES means: the BLS reports headline CPI (NSA, 12-month change, one-decimal) above 3.8% for the twelve months ending November 2026, i.e., a print of 3.9% or higher in the Dec 10, 2026 release (or later if delayed by a shutdown clause). - [2026-10-02] The Cleveland Fed's nowcast — which tracks YoY CPI at 3.60% for September — simultaneously projects CPI on a **quarterly annualized basis for 2026:Q4 at 4.02%**, implying the underlying monthly momentum entering the November reference period is running well above the 3.8% annualized threshold even though the YoY comparison is still muted by base effects. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting - [2026-01-20, updated 2026-05-07] Peter Orszag (Lazard CEO) and Adam Posen (PIIE president) argue in a named, publicly attributed analysis that consensus is "premature" and that "it is more likely that inflation will surprise to the upside—potentially exceeding 4 percent by the end of 2026." https://piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/risk-higher-us-inflation-2026 - [2026-01-20] Their mechanism centers on lagged tariff pass-through: "companies have now depleted the inventories they stockpiled ahead of tariff implementation... they are raising prices in smaller increments over a longer period. By mid‑2026, the delayed pass‑through should be substantially complete," which — if the lag extends further, as the authors argue is likely given "this won't last" — could still be feeding into Q4 2026 prints. https://piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/risk-higher-us-inflation-2026 - [2026-09-29] CNBC reports the Fed actually **raised** rates a quarter point in September 2026 (not cut) because inflation has re-accelerated, with Fed Governor Barr saying tariffs and the Iran war mean "we have been knocked off course on our progress toward our 2% goal," adding "I don't yet see a clear trend toward a timely return to 2%." https://cnbc.com/2026/09/29/the-feds-main-inflation-measure-will-be-released-wednesday-heres-what-to-expect.html - [2026-09-11] PNC Economics' primary research note on the August CPI report states the print "accelerated in August, increasing 0.29% on the month in the firmest inflation print since April... Over the past twelve months, there has been only one monthly inflation reading consistent with the Fed's 2% target," and PNC explicitly forecasts further Fed hikes in December and March, consistent with inflation still running hot. https://www.pnc.com/content/dam/pnc-com/pdf/aboutpnc/EconomicReports/EconomicUpdates/2026/PNC_Economics_Research_CPI_11_September_2026.pdf - [2026-10-04] AAA's own price tracker shows the national gasoline average at **$4.37/gallon** as of Oct 4, after a record-setting September monthly average of $4.33 — about 50 cents above the prior September record — driven by Strait of Hormuz volatility that pushed crude toward $100/barrel. https://gasprices.aaa.com/news/ - [2026-10-05] Canadian/North American energy reporting corroborates continued upside gasoline risk despite a G7 emergency-reserve release of 100 million barrels, with an energy advocate predicting gas could rise another 10-15 cents a litre by late October due to the Iran conflict and Ukraine-Russia tensions. https://www.cp24.com/news/2026/10/05/gas-prices-expected-to-continue-rising-despite-g7-releasing-millions-of-barrels-of-oil-and-fuel/ - [2026-10-02] Trading Economics' gasoline futures data show prices up 78.29% year-over-year and up 5.66% over the past month as of Oct 2, confirming energy — a direct CPI driver already responsible for over a third of August's monthly gain per the BLS report — remains a strong upside force into Q4. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gasoline - [2026-09-29] NY Fed President John Williams separately flagged AI-buildout demand as "a third contributor to persistent inflation," an upside factor not captured in most consensus models that assume goods disinflation. https://cnbc.com/2026/09/29/the-feds-main-inflation-measure-will-be-released-wednesday-heres-what-to-expect.html - [2026-10-05] Goldman Sachs' updated inflation playbook flags that a 45% single-month spike in oil "driven" inflation concern, with Goldman's oil strategists expecting only a partial Brent pullback to $80/barrel by Q4 2026 while "risks remain tilted to the upside." https://www.thestreet.com/economy/goldman-just-released-its-inflation-playbook-for-the-rest-of-2026 - [2026-10-05] The same Goldman note reports University of Michigan year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.8% and market-implied 2026 headline CPI expectations rose 0.8pp to 3.3% since the war began — evidence that inflation expectations, a self-reinforcing input to actual inflation, are de-anchoring upward. https://www.thestreet.com/economy/goldman-just-released-its-inflation-playbook-for-the-rest-of-2026 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is an energy-driven reacceleration — gasoline at record/near-record levels on Iran-war and Strait-of-Hormuz disruption plus a possible China refined-fuel export suspension — compounding with still-incomplete tariff pass-through (per Orszag/Posen) and a Fed that just hiked rather than cut because it judges itself "knocked off course"; the Cleveland Fed's own Q4 quarterly-annualized CPI nowcast of 4.02% shows current monthly momentum is already consistent with a move back above 3.8% if sustained through November. NOT FOUND: No single forecaster currently projects the November 2026 YoY print itself above 3.8% (most YoY-specific forecasts cluster at 3.5-3.7%); could not find a primary-source monthly breakdown isolating how much of the Q4 quarterly-annualized nowcast would need to persist through November versus reverse by December to validate a YoY print above 3.8%.

YES means: BLS reports the all-items CPI 12-month change for November 2026 (released as the one-decimal value) above 3.8%. - [2026-10-05] The BLS's own official schedule confirms the November 2026 CPI print is due Thursday, December 10, 2026, 08:30 AM, "Consumer Price Index for November 2026" — one calendar day before the Dec 11 funding deadline, so the release itself is not exposed to the current funding fight. - [2026-10-05] Current government funding, per the continuing resolution Trump signed, "provides fiscal year 2027 appropriations to federal agencies through Dec. 11, 2026" , meaning even a worst-case lapse would only begin at "12:01 a.m. ET Saturday, Dec. 12" — after the November CPI is already published, eliminating the shutdown-delay mechanism as a route to extending this market past its scheduled resolution. - [2026-10-05] An independent forecaster puts the odds of any shutdown even starting in that window at only "the chance of a shutdown starting between December 12 and December 31, 2026 at 24 percent" — and that window is entirely after the Nov CPI release date, so it cannot delay data relevant to resolution. - [2026-10-05] The Fed's own September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections puts the 2026 median PCE inflation forecast at only 3.7 median, with a central tendency of 3.5–3.7 and a full range of 2.9–3.8 for the year — meaning even the most hawkish FOMC participant's full-year PCE call tops out exactly at 3.8%, not above it, and CPI would need to run persistently hotter than the Fed's own ceiling case to cross the 3.8% CPI threshold in November. - [2026-10-05] Richmond Fed analysis confirms the September SEP revision was only a tenth of a point: "inflation in 2026 rose to 3.7 percent year over year compared to 3.6 percent in the June SEP... core PCE inflation rose to 3.4 percent versus 3.3 percent in June" — a gradual drift, not an acceleration large enough to plausibly add another 0.4-0.7 points by November. - [2026-10-05] Multiple independent statistical nowcasts agree November is unlikely to cross 3.8%: Long Forecast's time-series model projects "the forecast for the beginning of October 3.400%... CPI at the end 3.440%" , i.e., barely above August's 3.4% reading, far under the 3.8% bar two months before the reference period. - [2026-10-05] A pre-registered quantitative ensemble (Nowflation) for the next print (September, due Oct 14) shows a 3.58-3.63% consensus-blended call "Nowflation Forecast (ensemble) 3.58%... Cleveland Fed nowcast 3.57%... Street consensus 3.70%... Kalshi market-implied 3.63%" , with all four independent trackers clustering 0.1-0.2pp below the threshold even before accounting for further disinflation into November. - [2026-02-20] The Supreme Court's ruling striking down the broad IEEPA "Liberation Day" tariffs removed one major cost-push channel: "the Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026, that IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs... the ruling means that President Trump's IEEPA tariffs, including the 'Liberation Day' tariffs, are illegal" ; while replacement Section 122 tariffs followed, this legal setback reduces the ceiling on tariff-driven price pass-through relative to a scenario where the full IEEPA tariff schedule remained in force through year-end. - [2026-10-05] Historical precedent shows the BLS has reliably absorbed brief funding disruptions without missing a scheduled CPI print by more than a few days — the Jan/Feb 2026 shutdown only pushed the January CPI from Feb 11 to Feb 13 (noted in prior research) — reinforcing that even a short Dec 12+ lapse, should one occur, would be unlikely to delay the already-published Nov CPI data needed for resolution. - [2026-10-05] Base effects work against a jump to 3.8%: the 12-month comparison window rolls forward each month, and with CPI having been flat at 3.4% for two consecutive months (Jul-Aug 2026, noted in prior research), the arithmetic bar to a sudden 0.4pp acceleration by November without a large, unexplained monthly surge is high. BOTTOM LINE: On pure release-mechanics, the November 2026 CPI is scheduled for Dec 10, 2026 — a day before the next funding deadline — so the shutdown-extension clause is very unlikely to be triggered in a way that keeps this market open past its normal close; and on the inflation trajectory itself, the Fed's own SEP ceiling (3.8% PCE at the extreme end of its range), multiple independent nowcasts (3.4-3.7%), and the removal of the broadest tariff authority via the Supreme Court ruling all point to November CPI landing at or below, not above, 3.8%. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any BLS announcement of a delay or rescheduling of the Dec 10, 2026 CPI release; no post-October-5 December funding negotiations outcome (deadline hasn't yet been reached); no official November 2026-specific CPI point forecast from the BLS, Fed staff, or SPF (only aggregate full-year/Q4 figures exist).