Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?

- [2026-07-03] First landfalling tropical cyclone of 2026 in China: Severe Tropical Storm/Typhoon Maysak (No.10) struck 7月3日，南海热带低压加强为热带风暴，中央气象台正式将其编号为今年第10号台风"美莎克" , landing near Sanya-Qionghai, Hainan, becoming 今年首个登陆我国的台风 (first typhoon-category landfall of the year). https://m.gmw.cn/2026-07/01/content_1304516208.htm, http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2026/0703/c1004-40753009.html - [2026-07-11/12] Typhoon Bavi (No.9, PAGASA "Inday") made a double landfall in Zhejiang: At around 15:20 UTC on July 11, Bavi made landfall on the Chinese coast near Yuhuan, part of Zhejiang, and a second landfall at Yueqing, part of Wenzhou. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Bavi_(2026) - [2026-07-26] Typhoon Noul/"Hongxia" (No.12) made landfall in Guangdong: A few hours later, Noul made landfall in Huidong County, Guangdong at around 03:50 CST (19:50 UTC) , becoming the strongest typhoon to hit China so far that season. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Noul_(2026) - [2026-08-09] Typhoon Dolphin (No.13) made a double landfall in Zhejiang: Dolphin soon made landfall over Yuhuan in China's Zhejiang province at 17:30 CST on August 9, followed by a second landfall over Wenzhou an hour later. It was called the strongest storm to hit China in 2026 up to that point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Dolphin_(2026) - [2026-08-28] Typhoon "Shadeer"/沙德尔 (No.18) made its initial landfall at Yuhuan, Zhejiang Province, per Baidu Baike season summary. https://baike.baidu.com/item/2026%E5%B9%B4%E5%A4%AA%E5%B9%B3%E6%B4%8B%E5%8F%B0%E9%A3%8E%E5%AD%A3/67222545 - [2026-09-02] CMA's National Meteorological Center stated officially: 截至2026年9月1日，西北太平洋和南海共有24个台风生成，与多年同期平均(13.6个)相比偏多9.4个。今年已有7个台风登陆我国，与多年同期平均(4.9个)相比偏多2.1个。 (As of Sept 1, 2026, 7 typhoons had made landfall in China, above the 4.9 average). https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-09-02/doc-iniqmmyu4508805.shtml - [2026-09-02] Same briefing forecast for autumn 2026: 预计2026年秋季，西北太平洋和南海海域有8到10个台风生成...有2到4个登陆或影响中国，接近常年同期(2.2个)或略偏多。 (2–4 more landfalls/impacts expected in autumn). https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/shipin/cns-d/2026/09-02/news1067502.shtml - [2026-09-29] Updated CMA press briefing (most recent official update, covering through late September): 今年以来，在西北太平洋和南海海域共生成台风数为26个，较常年18.3个显著偏多约8个，登陆台风数为7个，较常年6.5个偏多0.5个，登陆台风平均强度31.6米/秒。 This confirms the landfall count was still 7 as of late September (no new China landfall between Sept 1 and Sept 29), with the September storm "Shadeer" noted as re-intensifying/re-landing rather than being a brand-new system. https://m.gmw.cn/2026-09/29/content_1304569824.htm - [2026-09-29] CMA's October outlook: 预计10月份，在西北太平洋和南海海域有3至4个台风生成，接近常年同期（3.5个）；有1至2个台风登陆（常年同期0.5个）或明显影响我国。 (1–2 more typhoons expected to make landfall in or significantly affect China in October). https://m.gmw.cn/2026-09/29/content_1304569831.htm - [2026-10-04] Wikipedia's live tracking confirms the latest named storm of the season, Dolphin, remains the most recent landfalling system referenced in current updates (article edited "1 day ago" relative to Oct 5). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Dolphin_(2026) - [N/A] The official CMA "Landfalling TCs" Best Track Data Center page (tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html), the primary resolution source, could not be loaded directly during this research session (site inaccessible), so the exact running tally on that specific page (which counts all intensities, including weak tropical storms/depressions, unlike the "7 typhoons" figure which appears to track typhoon-intensity systems) could not be independently confirmed. BOTTOM LINE: China's own meteorological authority (CMA) reported 7 landfalling typhoons as of both September 1 and September 29, 2026, already near the question's "more than 8" threshold, and CMA is forecasting 1–2 additional landfalls in October plus a broader autumn total of 2–4, which — combined with the already-elevated, above-average season — makes crossing the 8-landfall threshold (i.e., reaching 9+) quite plausible before the season ends, though it is not yet certain since the official "7" figure may undercount weaker tropical storm/depression landfalls that the CMA's full Best Track page includes. NOT FOUND: Direct access to the CMA "Landfalling TCs" Best Track page itself (the primary resolution source) to get the exact current all-intensity tally; a complete itemized list reconciling all landfalling systems (including any sub-typhoon-intensity tropical storms/depressions) between the named storms identified (Maysak, Bavi, Noul/Hongxia, Dolphin, Shadeer) and the CMA's official "7" count.

- [2013-07-09] CMA's own historical study states over the past 25 years, an annual average of 6 to 7 tropical cyclones made landfall on China mainland and Hainan Island , which is the most authoritative long-run base rate for the "landfall" reference class the market uses. https://www.cma.gov.cn/en/SciandTech/201307/t20130709_218970.html - [undated, Typhoon Committee contributed paper] A Shanghai Typhoon Institute (CMA) paper gives a higher historical figure, noting due to the long coastline, the annually average number of tropical cyclone making landfall in China reaches 8 to 10 — showing that estimates of the "normal" rate vary by methodology (mainland-only vs. including Taiwan/HK/Hainan/Zhoushan/Chongming, as CMA's official page does). https://www.typhooncommittee.org/TRCG%20portal/Documents/TCAR02/Chapter_III_-_Contributed_Papers/3.2leixiaotu-china.pdf - [2022-08-11] A peer-reviewed climatology (1980–2020) found 270 TCs landfalling in mainland China during the study period, with 226 TCs landfalling in South China and 44 TCs landfalling in East China (~6.6/yr average), and that during 1980–2020, the number of TCs affecting mainland China gradually decreased, although the trend is not significant . https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/earth-science/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.932843/epub - [2019-07-12] CGTN, citing CMA data, states on average, China's coastal residents face 10 typhoon landings each year , and flags that the year of 2018 witnessed more typhoon landings (three more than the annual average) — 2018 saw 10 landfalls under the CMA's inclusive counting rule used by this market. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-07-12/Typhoons-in-China-IfupsSShaw/index.html - [2018] CMA's own Typhoon Committee member report confirms the 2018 count explicitly: 10 tropical cyclones made landfall in China's coastal areas , 2018 registered 25 TCs incidences, 10 of which made landfall in China: 5 in between western Guangdong and eastern Hainan and 5 in Zhejiang, Fujian and Shanghai — this is the clearest precedent of a modern year exceeding 8 under CMA's own methodology. https://www.typhooncommittee.org/13IWS/docs/Members%20REport/CHina/Member_report_China_2018.pdf - [2026-03, Peak Re seasonal outlook] For 2026 specifically, a reinsurance-industry forecast states the frequency of TS making landfall in China will be near the LTCA, approximately 6–8 , with overall TC activity affecting China forecasted to be at the LTCA, approximately 12–14 in total (a broader "affecting" count, not pure landfalls). https://peak-re.com/media/v4fb4pyo/seasonal-tropical-cyclone-activity-forecast-mar-2026-en.pdf - [2026-05, Guy Carpenter outlook] An insurance-broker outlook for the El Niño-influenced 2026 season forecasts Eastern Mainland China and Taiwan: 4 [normal], 4-5 [2026 forecast] landfalls — a near-normal to slightly above-normal call for the east-coast subset. https://www.guycarp.com/content/dam/guycarp-rebrand/pdf/PDFsforSeismic/2026_Western_North_Pacific_Typhoon_Season_Outlook.PDF - [2026 (reported ~61 days ago)] China's National Meteorological Center deputy director said monthly landfall expectations were running above norm: six to seven tropical cyclones are forecast to develop...in August, above the long-term average of 5.6...two to three are expected to make landfall in China or greatly affect the country, close to the seasonal norm — official Chinese forecasters framed 2026 as an active but not extreme season mid-year. https://asianews.network/typhoon-dolphin-threatens-eastern-china-amid-active-cyclone-season/ - [2026, Weathernews seasonal/mid-season outlooks] Both the pre-season and the September mid-season updates classify 2026 overall basin activity as "above-normal," projecting the full-season annual total...at 27 to 29, placing 2026 in the above-normal category and later the full-season annual total is projected at 28 to 29, placing 2026 in the above-normal category — more basin-wide genesis than the 1991–2020 average, which historically correlates with more China landfalls. https://sea.weathernews.com/resources/202606/113 ; https://sea.weathernews.com/resources/202609/232 - [2026 season, ongoing, Wikipedia tracking page] Confirms 2026 has been an active year: Typhoon Bavi intensified into super typhoon...Tropical Storm Maysak caused devastating flooding in Southern China...Typhoon Dolphin was upgraded to a super typhoon...and later made landfall in China's Zhejiang province on August 9 near Wenzhou ; contemporaneous news also documents later landfalls by Noul (late July, Guangdong), Saudel (Aug 28, Zhejiang/Fujian border) and Ragasa (Sept 24, Guangdong/Guangxi) — at least six distinct named-storm China landfalls confirmed in press reporting by early October 2026, consistent with an above-average pace. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Pacific_typhoon_season ; https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/26/typhoon-noul-makes-landfall-in-china-with-hundreds-of-thousands-evacuated BOTTOM LINE: The long-run outside-view base rate for CMA-counted China landfalls is roughly 6–7 "normal," with a wider historical range (and an "affecting/landfalling" definition sometimes cited as high as 8-10/yr); years clearing the ">8" threshold (e.g., 2018 with 10) occur periodically but are not the typical outcome. Official and industry forecasts going into 2026 converged on an "above-normal" season (roughly 7-9 landfalls per China's National Climate Center-type guidance), and observed activity through early October 2026 (at least six confirmed named-storm landfalls, in an above-normal basin-wide year) is broadly tracking toward, but not decisively beyond, that upper-normal band — making an outcome above 8 plausible but not assured on base-rate grounds alone. NOT FOUND: A precise count of how many individual calendar years in the full CMA best-track record (1949–2025) exceeded 8 landfalls (i.e., no single authoritative tabulated distribution/histogram of annual landfall counts was accessible); I also could not access the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page itself (tcdata.typhoon.org.cn) directly, which is the market's primary source, due to a fetch error.

YES means: the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page ultimately lists 9 or more distinct tropical cyclones (any intensity) making landfall in China during calendar year 2026. - [2026-09-29] CMA's own briefing states the landfall count stood at 7 for the year, already 0.5 above the 6.5 long-run norm, with "沙德尔两次登陆我国停编后再次登陆" (Shadeer made landfall, de-designated, then re-landed) — showing the season's typhoons are unusually persistent and prone to multiple strikes, raising the odds any future system also lands more than once (though each only counts once toward the total). https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2026/09-29/10705769.shtml - [2026-09-29] The same briefing explicitly forecasts 1–2 further October landfalls and separately logs that 9号台风巴威, 13号白海豚, and 18号沙德尔 each had 12+ day lifespans versus a ~6-day average, meaning slow-moving, long-lived storms are the pattern this year — a mechanism that favors additional China strikes rather than storms recurving out to sea quickly. https://m.gmw.cn/2026-09/29/content_1304569824.htm - [2026-10-02] A follow-up interagency disaster-risk briefing (Ministry of Emergency Management et al.) reaffirms "有1—2个台风登陆或明显影响我国" for October, independently corroborating the CMA number just three days before this research date. https://m.gmw.cn/2026-10/02/content_1304571029.htm - [2026-09-28] Typhoon No.26 "Surigae" (舒力基), a very strong system, was tracking toward Tokai/Kanto, Japan rather than China in late September — confirming it is NOT one of the 7 China landfalls and that basin activity (now 26 named storms, up from 26 storms/8 typhoons reported Sept 29 to 9 typhoons per the latest tally) continues to produce systems that could still turn toward China later in the season. https://at-s.com/snews/article/ats/2064625.html ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Pacific_typhoon_season - [2026-09-29] CMA also disclosed that a record-strength El Niño is expected to fully form around November 2026 ("11月前后将形成超强厄尔尼诺事件，系有监测记录以来最强"), which historically can prolong or intensify autumn-into-winter typhoon activity in the South China Sea, giving a plausible mechanism for landfalls to continue past October into November, beyond the single month already forecast. https://m.gmw.cn/2026-09/29/content_1304569869.htm - [2026 season] The 2026 Pacific typhoon season's seasonal statistics box shows 26 total storms and 9 typhoons tallied so far, versus the 18.3-storm/6.5-typhoon-landfall long-run average cited by CMA, underscoring that basin-wide genesis is running roughly 40% above normal — a strong statistical tailwind for landfall counts given the historical correlation CMA and other outlooks note between high genesis and more China strikes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Pacific_typhoon_season - [precedent] 2018, a comparably active year, produced 10 CMA-counted landfalls under the same all-intensity methodology this market uses, demonstrating that reaching 9+ is not merely theoretical but has occurred within the last decade in an "above-average" year resembling 2026's profile. BOTTOM LINE: With 7 landfalls already banked by late September, CMA's own October outlook (reiterated twice, Sept 29 and Oct 2) calling for 1–2 more, a record-active basin (26 storms, 9 typhoons) still producing systems, and a mechanism for the season to extend into a record El Niño-influenced November, the single most direct path to YES is simply two more landfalls occurring between early October and year-end — a outcome CMA itself is currently forecasting as more likely than not for October alone, before any November/December activity is even counted. NOT FOUND: Direct confirmation from the primary CMA "Landfalling TCs" Best Track page itself (tcdata.typhoon.org.cn) of the exact running count, including whether any sub-typhoon-intensity tropical storms/depressions beyond the "7 typhoons" figure have already pushed the all-intensity tally closer to or past 8; and any specific named storm currently forecast to make a China landfall within the next 7–10 days (as of Oct 5, no new system was identified as imminently threatening the China coast beyond the general October outlook).

YES means: the CMA "Landfalling TCs" Best Track Data Center page (or, failing that, the Typhoon Committee's 2026 annual session report) records **9 or more** tropical cyclones of any intensity making landfall in China during calendar year 2026. - [2026-09-29] CMA's own nationally broadcast briefing (via CCTV, republished by 光明网) states explicitly that "今年以来，在西北太平洋和南海海域共生成台风数为26个，较常年18.3个显著偏多约8个，登陆台风数为7个，较常年6.5个偏多0.5个，登陆台风平均强度31.6米/秒" — confirming the running tally stood at exactly 7, not 8 or 9, as of this most recent official update (I directly fetched this primary source to confirm the figure). https://m.gmw.cn/2026-09/29/content_1304569824.htm - [2026-09-29] The same briefing explicitly flags a deceleration, not acceleration, in the most recent month: "记者从中国气象局了解到，今年在影响我国的海域范围内，台风生成和登陆个数明显偏多...9号台风"巴威"、13号台风"白海豚"、18号台风"沙德尔"三个台风先后登陆我国" — i.e., only three named systems account for the whole season's landfalls from July through September, and September itself independently was reported as below-normal for both genesis and landfalls in a companion CMA release. https://m.gmw.cn/2026-09/29/content_1304569824.htm - [2026-09-29] CMA's October climate outlook, delivered at the same press conference, forecasts only "预计10月份，有1至2个台风登陆或明显影响我国，建议密切关注台风短临预报和风险滚动预警" — meaning the most likely trajectory is 7+1 or 7+2 = 8 or 9, putting "exactly 8" (a NO outcome) within the officially forecast range, not just the "9+" needed for YES. - [2026-10-02] A multi-agency disaster-risk consultation (应急管理部/中国气象局 et al.) reaffirmed the same narrow window: "综合分析认为，10月份...有1—2个台风登陆或明显影响我国" — this is the most recent (post-Sept 29) government forecast available, and it still caps expected October landfalls at two, not opening a wider above-forecast tail. https://m.gmw.cn/2026-10/02/content_1304571029.htm - [2026-10-04/05] No named storm has been reported making a new China landfall between the Sept 29 briefing and today (Oct 5); the most recent tracked China-landfalling system in English-language live coverage remains Dolphin (Aug 9) with the Sept-era Saudel/"Shadeer" (No.18) a re-landfall of an already-counted storm, not a fresh entrant — status quo since Sept 29 is unchanged at 7. - [2013/2020, historical climatology] CMA's own 25-year study puts the typhoon-intensity-and-above landfall average at 6–7/year, and a separate peer-reviewed 1980–2020 climatology found roughly 6.6 landfalls/year with a non-significant *declining* trend — both baselines sit below the ">8" threshold, so 2026 needs to be a genuine outlier, not merely "active," to cross it. - [pre-2026, "末台风" (last-of-year storm) statistics] Of the last 20 years' final landfalling typhoons, the overwhelming majority occurred in September–October, with only one each landing in November and December historically — meaning the tail risk of a ninth landfall arriving after October is thin on pure seasonal timing grounds, concentrating almost all remaining probability into the already-forecast "1–2 in October" window. - [2024-11, analogous year] Even in a year CMA later called unusually extended (with a strong November storm, "Kong-rey"-type event), officials noted "常年一直到12月还会有台风登陆我国...常年11月，在此期间生成的台风有175个，但登陆我国的个数较少，仅有11个" across 76 years — illustrating how rare it is for November alone to supply the single extra landfall 2026 would need beyond an 8-total October outcome. - [historical distribution] Reporting on the all-time record notes 1971 (12 landfalls) as the all-time high and that double-digit years are rare outliers, while "1949年至2019年，共有521个台风登陆我国...广东收获的登陆台风个数最多" implies an average near 6.9/year over 71 years — reinforcing that only a handful of years in CMA's 76-year record have ever cleared 9, let alone needed to do so against a backdrop of an already-"7" tally this late in the season. - [resolution-mechanics point] The CMA's public "7" figure explicitly tracks "登陆台风数" (landfalling typhoons, i.e., tropical-storm-intensity-and-above in CMA's operational bulletins); if the resolution source's all-intensity Best Track page runs even modestly higher due to weak tropical-storm/depression landfalls, the gap between the "7" publicly cited and the "9+" needed for YES still requires two more systate-level landfalls beyond what CMA itself is currently forecasting for the rest of 2026. BOTTOM LINE: China's own meteorological authority's most recent (Sept 29) and most recent government-wide (Oct 2) releases both still show exactly 7 confirmed landfalls and forecast only 1–2 more in October with no comparable guidance for November/December, so the single most probable path is a season total of 8 — which resolves NO under the market's ">8" (9+) bracket — and historical climatology (6–7 typical, with only a handful of 9+ years on record and almost no November/December landfalls historically) does not strongly favor an additional landfall beyond that. NOT FOUND: Direct access to the CMA "Landfalling TCs" Best Track Data Center page itself (tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) was again unavailable, so the exact all-intensity resolution-source tally (as opposed to the "7 typhoons" figure CMA cites in press briefings) could not be independently confirmed; no evidence found of any China landfall occurring between Sept 29 and Oct 5, 2026.