Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026? — Before 2027

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first rate increase since July 2023, with the decision announced at 2:00 PM ET and effective 2026-09-17. The Federal Reserve raised US interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday 16 September 2026 — its first increase since July 2023 — on a unanimous 12–0 vote, announced at 2:00 PM US Eastern Time. - [2026-09-16] Fed officials' year-end rate projections from the September dot plot are between 4.1% and 4.4% , and the median participant expects the fed funds rate to hike an additional 25bps ending 2026 at 4.1%, with sixteen of eighteen participants expecting one additional rate hike this year, while four participants project two additional hikes. - [2026-10-05] The federal funds target range currently stands at 3.75%–4.00%, with the effective rate at 3.88% as of early October per the Fed's H.15 release. On 2026 Sep 25 and Sep 28 the federal funds (effective) rate was 3.88. - [2026-10-02] The current effective federal funds rate is 3.88%, and as of market close on October 2, 2026, futures markets are pricing the rate to rise to about 4.1% by January 2027. - [2026-10-28] The next scheduled FOMC meeting (second day, decision at 2:00 PM ET) falls before the question's Dec 31, 2026 deadline. The FOMC meeting of Oct 27–28 is scheduled for a Wed, 28 Oct 2026 decision , with no SEP/dot plot at that meeting. - [2026-12-09] A second, SEP-accompanied FOMC meeting is scheduled before year-end. The December FOMC meeting runs Dec 8–9, 2026, with the decision and SEP/dot plot released Wed, 9 Dec 2026. - [2026-09-23 (reported 10-02)] Fed officials have continued to signal hawkish intent after the hike; one report noted "Fed's Logan says '50 bps or more' rate hikes needed to curb inflation" (Oct 2, 2026) via Investing.com's economic calendar news feed, https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168 - [2026-10-02 reporting] Cross-venue pricing (CME futures, Polymarket, Kalshi sibling contracts) for the October 28 meeting specifically put a second 25bp hike probability in roughly the mid-50s%, with a hold in the low-to-mid 40s%, as reported by third-party trackers (not this contract). https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/fed-rate-october-2026-odds-warsh-kalshi-polymarket-futures - [2026-09-16] Kalshi's own dedicated contract for the September 16 meeting (a sibling, meeting-specific contract distinct from this cumulative "by Dec 31" contract) had already priced the hike at roughly 86.5%–88% the night before the decision, and resolved consistent with the actual hike. https://alearesearch.substack.com/p/kalshi-filed-for-58-equity-perpetuals - [2026-10-02] Polymarket's separate Fed-meeting dashboard currently shows expectations tilted toward "No change" (around 83%) for the next individual meeting (dated "Thu Oct 29, 2026" on that page, likely referencing the Oct 27-28 meeting), with an 18% chance of a 25bp hike — a different, meeting-specific sibling market, not this cumulative "by Dec 31" contract. https://polymarket.com/dashboards/fed-rates - [2026-09-17 to present] The September hike was the Fed's first under Chair Kevin Warsh, unanimous and attributed to persistently elevated core PCE inflation (above 3% every month of 2026) and hawkish signaling after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. The hike came amid persistent inflation concerns, with core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation running above 3% every month of 2026, as well as “geopolitical developments,” according to the FOMC statement. BOTTOM LINE: A rate hike has already occurred on 2026-09-16 (to 3.75%–4.00%), and the Fed's own September dot plot together with futures/sibling-market pricing imply a strong likelihood of at least one additional 25bp hike at the remaining 2026 meetings (Oct 27-28 and/or Dec 8-9) before the Dec 31, 2026 deadline; the pivotal ambiguity for this specific contract is whether the Sept 16 hike (same calendar day the market opened) counts as "after market Issuance," which would determine if the event has already been satisfied independent of the two remaining meetings. NOT FOUND: The exact intraday timestamp this Kalshi contract opened on 2026-09-16 relative to the 2:00 PM ET FOMC announcement (needed to determine if the Sept 16 hike occurred "after market Issuance" per the rules); official federalreserve.gov press release text for the Sept 16, 2026 decision (page could not be directly fetched); any post-October-28, 2026 FOMC outcome, since that meeting had not yet occurred as of the latest sources retrieved (Oct 2-5, 2026).

- [2026-09-16] The Federal Reserve raised its federal funds target range by 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% at the September 2026 FOMC meeting, ending roughly three years without a hike. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its September meeting by voting unanimously to raise rates by a quarter point, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75–4.0%. This was the first rate hike in three years , coming just nine months after the Fed's last cut in December 2025, per the Fed's last movement occurred in December 2025 when the Fed lowered the target range of the fed funds rate to 3.50% to 3.75% . Source: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/127852/probability-fed-rate-hike (dot-plot/context), https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts - [2026-09-16] Official FOMC dot plot released with the September decision shows a hawkish committee: 12 out of 18 members that submitted projections pegged their view of appropriate monetary policy in 2026 at an average of 4.125%... implying one more 25 basis point hike to come by year-end , and four committee members see 50 more basis points' worth of rate hikes in 2026 as appropriate, while only two members see no more hikes this year . Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/fed-officials-forecasts-project-one-more-rate-hike-to-come-in-2026-183856618.html - [2026-10-05 (reflecting post-Sept state)] A dedicated prediction market, "Another Fed rate hike in 2026?" (distinct from the Kalshi contract being forecast), opened on Polymarket at Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET — i.e., after that day's 2pm ET hike announcement — and as of the most recent snapshot shows The current crowd-sourced probability is 73% for "Yes." with a related summary noting Recent data and the Federal Reserve's September 2026 decision to raise the target range to 3.75-4.00 percent have anchored trader expectations for at least one additional 25-basis-point hike before year-end... with December pricing above 65 percent even as October futures sit near 15-20 percent . Source: https://polymarket.com/event/another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026 - [2026-10-04] A separate, now-closed Polymarket market simply asking "Fed rate hike in 2026?" (without an "another/additional" qualifier) resolved outcome "Yes," with the market stating The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%—its first hike since 2023—combined with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a median 4.1% rate by year-end, underpins the 100% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026 . This confirms the base-case "any hike in 2026" question is already settled by the September move. Source: https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2026 - [2026-09-10] Ahead of the September decision, CME FedWatch futures-implied odds were already leaning toward a hike: as of 10 September 2026, CME's FedWatch tool priced a 0.0% probability of a cut at the Federal Reserve's 16 September meeting, 37.6% for no change, and 62.4% for a quarter-point hike , having moved from a near coin flip between holding and hiking a week earlier. Source: https://www.vantagemarkets.com/market-analysis/fed-rate-probability-cme-fedwatch-explained/ - [2026-08-07] Earlier CNBC reporting on futures/Kalshi pricing after a weak July jobs report showed December hike odds remaining elevated even as near-term odds fell: Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi now see a 65% chance that the central bank holds rates steady in September. On CME's FedWatch tool, those odds are now at 60%... rate hikes this year still aren't out of the question. Even after the report, CME's FedWatch tool still sees a 55% chance of a hike in October, and an almost 75% chance in December. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/odds-the-fed-hikes-in-september-tumble-following-big-july-jobs-miss.html - [2026-10-05] Historical base-rate framing: analysts note the Fed's tightening moves have almost never been isolated, single events. The Fed rarely hikes or cuts a single time. An exception was in March 1997 when the Fed hiked just once. The next move was a cut in September 1998. That was the last true "one and done" move upward. This reference class implies that once a hiking cycle restarts (as in September 2026), history favors at least one more hike following relatively soon, consistent with the committee's own forward guidance. Source: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-09-29] A long-run historical review of tightening cycles since 1971 contextualizes 2026 as an outlier start-point: Every cycle since 2004 began at or near the floor. This one begins with the rate at 3.50 percent, nine months after the last cut. Of ten completed tightening cycles examined, the Fed rate hike history since 1971 contains ten completed tightening cycles. Six ended in recessions, three of them with the cause still debated, and four did not. Source: https://maseconomics.com/fed-rate-hike-history-1971-2026/ - [2026-09-18] Remaining 2026 FOMC meeting dates after the September hike are October 27–28 and December 8–9, both with the December meeting including a new Summary of Economic Projections, giving two more scheduled opportunities for a further hike before the Dec 31, 2026 deadline. Source: https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/ - [2026-09-16] Commentary flagged that the October meeting is viewed as a less likely venue for a second hike given proximity to U.S. midterm elections, with December seen as the more probable next move: This meeting is especially important because the next one ends on October 28, and it's unlikely that the Fed will want to start raising rates right before Election Day. The safest political route is to raise rates at the September and December meetings, and leave them unchanged in October. Source: https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/live/fed-meeting-updates-and-commentary-september-2026 BOTTOM LINE: The base rate/outside-view evidence is unusually strong for this cycle: the Fed already broke a three-year hiking drought in September 2026, its own dot plot and a clear majority of FOMC members project at least one more 25bp hike by year-end, historical precedent shows the Fed almost never hikes "one and done," and independent sibling prediction markets tracking an *additional* hike after September (not the same Kalshi contract) price that outcome in the 70s-percent range with December as the focal meeting. NOT FOUND: The exact minute-by-minute timing of the Kalshi contract's own "market Issuance" relative to the 2:00 PM ET September 16 FOMC announcement (needed to know whether the September hike itself occurred "after" issuance); official FOMC meeting minutes/transcript for September 2026 (page could not be fetched); a verified long-run frequency statistic for "Fed hikes within 3.5 months after a hiking-cycle restart" as a clean numerical base rate.

YES means: the Federal Reserve announces at least one additional increase in the federal funds target range (beyond the Sept 16, 2026 hike) at either the Oct 27–28 or Dec 8–9, 2026 FOMC meeting, on or before Dec 31, 2026 (or, if the Sept 16 hike itself is ruled to have occurred "after market Issuance," that the question is already satisfied). - [2026-10-04] CME FedWatch data as of Oct. 1 "suggests that the odds of the Federal Reserve hiking rates at its October meeting are about 33%," with the Fed's own September projections showing "16 of 18 Fed officials who submitted projections expected at least one more rate hike this year." https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/04/fed-chair-kevin-warsh-rate-hike-2023-accommodation/ - [2026-10-05] After a softer September jobs report, "Markets are now pricing in nearly a 22.1% probability of a Fed rate hike in October and an 87.2% chance of an increase in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool" — showing the market has essentially shifted the hike expectation to December rather than abandoning it. https://fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-drifts-higher-above-06950-on-soft-us-jobs-data-202610042321 - [2026-10-04 reported] A separate tracker likewise shows December pricing well above October: "the probability of a rate hike later this month dropped to 23% by Friday evening... For December, the market still prices in an 85% chance." https://chartmill.com/news/NKE/Chartmill-55734-A-Soft-Jobs-Report-Takes-the-Heat-Off-Rates-and-Nvidia-Closes-In-on-6-Trillion - [2026-10-01] Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan explicitly called for more tightening, saying "the target range needs to rise an additional 50 basis points or more to appropriately balance the outlook and risks for our dual mandate goals," and that "a few additional increases in the target range would undo the FOMC's risk management cuts from last fall." https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/feds-logan-calls-for-50-bps-or-more-in-rate-hikes-4928682 - [2026-10-04] Chair Warsh, days after the September hike, is quoted describing the move as having "removed a dose of accommodation," language the Fool interprets as implying "current monetary conditions are still fairly loose and that more work is needed to control inflation." https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/04/fed-chair-kevin-warsh-rate-hike-2023-accommodation/ - [2026-10-04/05] Inflation pressure is reinforced by oil: the same report notes Warsh estimated PCE inflation "rose about 3.6% in the year through August," and that "Brent crude... hit $101.15 per barrel on Oct. 1 as a result of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran," a shock "not even reflected in the inflation data yet" — a fresh upside inflation risk feeding into the December SEP. https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/04/fed-chair-kevin-warsh-rate-hike-2023-accommodation/ - [2026-10-04] Despite a weak September jobs print (29,000 jobs added per BLS, released Oct. 2) and an ADP print showing a 32,000 private-sector job loss, one tracker notes "prediction markets have leaned toward another hike before year-end, though contracts tied specifically to the October meeting have recently favored no change" — i.e., weak labor data is seen as deferring, not canceling, the next hike, consistent with the Oct-to-Dec pricing shift. https://startupfortune.com/fed-must-decide-on-rates-this-month-without-the-data-it-normally-uses/ - [2026-10-04] The same reporting clarifies no shutdown is currently disrupting data: "Congress passed a stopgap funding bill in September. It keeps federal agencies funded through December 11," meaning the critical Oct 14 CPI print and November data should be available to inform the December 9 SEP meeting without a data blackout. https://startupfortune.com/fed-must-decide-on-rates-this-month-without-the-data-it-normally-uses/ - [2026-10-02] One commentator noted "Bank of America has gone further, projecting three separate 25-basis-point hikes in 2026, which would push rates to the 4.25–4.50% range," illustrating that institutional forecasters on the hawkish end see the December meeting as merely the second of several hikes, not a close call. https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/fed-rate-hike-probability-hits-90-by-year-end-2026-cme-fedwatch-shows - [2026-10-02] A separate Kucoin summary states CME FedWatch pegs "a 90% probability of raising interest rates at least once before the end of 2026," attributing the surge to "recent inflation releases that rattled investors." https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/fed-rate-hike-probability-hits-90-by-year-end-2026-cme-fedwatch-shows - [2026-10-01] President Trump's public criticism that Chair Warsh "should have voted against a move to hike interest rates last month" underscores that political pressure for lower rates has, so far, not deterred the Fed's hawkish trajectory, and a defiantly independent Fed under Warsh may be more, not less, likely to hike again to demonstrate resolve. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-01/trump-says-warsh-should-have-voted-against-fed-s-rate-hike BOTTOM LINE: Multiple independent futures- and prediction-market trackers (CME FedWatch, cited across several outlets Oct 2–5) converge on roughly 85-90% odds of at least one more 25bp hike by year-end even after a soft September jobs report pushed the likely venue from October to the December 8-9 SEP meeting, and sitting Fed officials (Logan explicitly, Warsh implicitly) continue to press publicly for further tightening against a backdrop of 3%+ core inflation and a fresh oil-price shock. NOT FOUND: Any post-October-5 FOMC-member vote intentions, the October 14 CPI print (not yet released at time of research), and confirmation of whether a federal government shutdown is in effect in this scenario (one Oct-4 source states funding is secured through Dec 11, contradicting an earlier search result referencing a shutdown affecting data).

YES means: the real-world outcome that resolves YES is that the Federal Reserve announces at least one additional increase to the federal funds target range after this contract's issuance (effectively, after the Sept 16, 2026 hike) and on or before Dec 31, 2026 — i.e., a further hike at the Oct 27-28 or Dec 8-9 FOMC meetings (or an intermeeting move). This dimension argues for NO: no such additional hike occurring. - [2026-10-02] A weak September jobs report — nonfarm payrolls up just 29,000 versus an 84,000 forecast, unemployment rising to 4.2%, and July/August revised down a combined 60,000 jobs — hit right as markets were pricing a near-coinflip October hike. "Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000 in September, well below the 84,000 forecast. The unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, though largely due to an influx of members in the labor force." https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/jobs-report-september-2026.html - [2026-10-02] The same report crushed near-term hike odds across venues: CME's FedWatch tool shows only a 17% chance that the Fed increases rates by a quarter percentage point. One week ago, odds were close to 36%. On prediction market platform Kalshi, chances for a hike in October stood at just 18%, down from almost 70% a week ago. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html - [2026-10-02] A leading sell-side economist called the report decisive against an imminent move: "For the Fed, this number should be the nail in the coffin for an October hike," Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies, said in a note. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/jobs-report-september-2026.html - [2026-10-02] A cooler-than-expected inflation print the same week compounded the dovish shift: The cool jobs report follows a softer-than-expected inflation report released on Wednesday. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html - [2026-10-05] Underlying labor-market trend data show broad-based cooling, not a one-off miss: unemployment has stayed between 4.1% and 4.3% since March; wage growth has slipped each month, from 3.2% in July to 3.1% in August to 3.0% in September. https://www.wichitaliberty.org/economics/september-2026-jobs-report/ - [2026-10-02] A Natixis economist offered the more measured dovish framing relevant to a "no further hike" case: the report lowers the urgency to raise rates in October but does not change the Fed's focus on inflation. https://www.wichitaliberty.org/economics/september-2026-jobs-report/ - [2026-10-02] Cross-platform pricing for the specific Oct 27-28 meeting corroborates the collapse: Kalshi and Polymarket price a hold near 84% and a 25bp hike near 16-17%, down from roughly 56-58% hike odds just two weeks earlier on Sept 20. https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/ ; https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/fed-rate-october-2026-odds-warsh-kalshi-polymarket-futures - [2026-10-02] October 2026's government-shutdown risk was defused well before the data run that moved markets, meaning this dovish repricing reflects genuine, un-confounded data rather than data-blackout noise: A new stopgap spending bill has averted the October 2026 government shutdown through December 11... President Trump signed it into law on September 2, 2026, avoiding a lapse that would have begun at the start of the new fiscal year on October 1. https://govtschemes.org/government-shutdown-2026-update/ - [2026-10-02] Even bulls on a 2026 hike now concede October is effectively off the table, pushing all probability mass onto the single remaining December meeting — a smaller, single "last chance" window rather than two independent rolls of the dice, raising single-meeting-failure risk (hawkish dissent, a soft December jobs/CPI print, or a cautious post-hike pause after September's already-completed move) for the cumulative question. Investors are still pricing in that the Fed will hike interest rates in December. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html - [2026-10-01] New York Fed President John Williams signaled no urgency for another hike, giving the committee's most influential voice a case for patience that could extend through December: The shift followed New York Fed President John Williams's signal that another increase does not require immediate action. https://coinspeaker.com/polymarket-october-fomc-odds-october-hold - [2026-10-05] Kalshi's own live sibling contract for "fed rate cut before 2027" trades near 5%, underscoring that the debate has shifted from "cut vs. hold" to "hold vs. hike," but the broader hike-by-Dec-31 contract's resolution still requires the single December meeting to produce a hike after the momentum-killing September jobs data, a historically harder bar than when two meetings (Oct + Dec) were both live. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxratecut/fed-rate-cut/kxratecut-26dec31 - [2026-10-05 reading of rules] Because resolution requires an increase "after market Issuance," and because the September 16 hike was itself the trigger for this and sibling markets' creation (several dated to open or recalibrate same-day/after the 2pm announcement), the contract plausibly requires a genuinely new, additional hike at Oct 28 or Dec 9 — not credit for the already-announced September move — meaning the newly dovish labor data directly undercuts the sole realistic remaining path to YES. BOTTOM LINE: The case for NO rests on the abrupt, data-driven collapse in October hike odds (to roughly 16-21% across Kalshi/Polymarket/CME) following the weak September jobs report and softer CPI, which leaves a single December 9 meeting as the only realistic remaining opportunity for the "additional hike after issuance" this contract requires — a much narrower path than existed in mid-September, and one that depends on a reversal of the current cooling-labor-market narrative and a dovish-leaning Williams-style committee staying unified toward tightening again so soon after a hike already delivered. NOT FOUND: Official December 2026 FOMC statement (meeting has not occurred); confirmed exact Kalshi issuance timestamp for this specific "by Dec 31, 2026" contract relative to the 2:00pm ET Sept 16 announcement; post-October-28, 2026 FOMC decision (not yet occurred as of Oct 5, 2026).