Will there be exactly 1 Fed rate hike in 2026?

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC unanimously voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, the Fed's first rate hike since 2023 — this counts as "1 hike" under the contract's definition. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html - [2026-09-16] The September Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) dot plot showed the median participant expects the fed funds rate to end 2026 at 4.1%, and sixteen of eighteen participants expect one additional rate hike this year, while four participants project two additional hikes , implying the median dot already embeds a second hike this year. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-09-16] Markets currently price in one more 25-basis-point interest rate hike in 2026, followed by continuing rate hikes extending into 2027 , per post-meeting market pricing recap. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/16/feds-interest-rate-decision-september-16-2026 - [2026-09-16] At the July 2026 meeting the Fed had held rates but three FOMC members voted against the decision to hold, preferring instead a quarter-point hike , showing hawkish dissent building before September's hike. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html - [2026-10-01] Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a 2026 voter, said in prepared remarks that the policy rate must increase by additional 50 bps or more, and at minimum, several more rate hikes would reverse last fall's reductions — a notably hawkish signal pointing toward more than one additional hike. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/feds-logan-policy-rate-must-increase-by-additional-50-bps-or-more-202610012340 - [2026-10-01] Logan explicitly called September's move "an important first step," and said the Fed needs to raise short-term borrowing costs by at least another half percentage point to make monetary policy modestly restrictive , which if delivered as a single 50bp move would itself count as "two hikes" per the contract's own bucket rules. https://rallies.ai/news/feds-logan-calls-for-50-bps-or-more-in-rate-hikes-6aeb1a19ab1e56a7 - [2026-10-01] A market tracker noted that odds of an October hike fell to 28% after other Fed leaders said they could wait for more data , suggesting the committee is divided on timing (October vs. December) even if a December hike remains likely. https://www.briefs.co/news/dallas-fed-s-lorie-logan-says-more-rate-hikes-likely-while-h/ - [2026-10-02] The next two scheduled FOMC meetings — Oct 27–28, 2026 (no SEP) and Dec 8–9, 2026 (with SEP) — remain the only remaining opportunities in 2026 for additional hikes/cuts before the contract's trading close on 2027-01-03. https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/ - [2026-10-05] Per a Polymarket Fed-rates dashboard snapshot, odds for the October 28/29 meeting outcome were roughly 83% No change, 18% 25 bps hike , indicating markets lean toward a hold in October with the more likely additional hike (if any) coming at the December meeting. https://polymarket.com/dashboards/fed-rates - [2026-10-02] The effective federal funds rate stood at 3.88% (midpoint of the current 3.75%–4.00% range) as of the Fed's H.15 release, confirming no change has occurred since the September hike. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/ - [2026-10-01] Reuters coverage noted that Treasury yields rose sharply in recent weeks amid concerns over energy price risks from the U.S.-Iran conflict... and blew past 5% to its highest level since 2002 , an environment some officials argue may do some of the Fed's tightening work for it, potentially reducing the need for further hikes. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/feds-logan-says-50-bps-or-more-rate-hikes-needed-to-curb-inflation/ - [2026-10-07] FOMC minutes from the September meeting are scheduled for release, which should reveal more detail on how divided the committee is about further tightening before the October meeting. https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/ BOTTOM LINE: Exactly one 25bp hike has already occurred in 2026 (September), satisfying the "exactly 1" condition so far, but the September dot plot (16 of 18 participants), market pricing, and hawkish commentary from a 2026 voter (Logan, calling for 50bp+ more) all point toward at least one additional hike by year-end — most likely at the December 8-9 meeting, with October seen as less probable (~18-28% priced) — which would push the 2026 total to 2+ hikes and resolve this contract No. NOT FOUND: Could not find CME FedWatch's exact current numeric probability for the December 2026 meeting specifically (only the October meeting dashboard was available), nor any confirmation of inter-meeting emergency action; also no post-October-1 Fed communications beyond Logan's speech were found in the search window.

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% at its September 15–16 meeting — its first hike since 2023 — breaking a cutting/pause cycle that had held rates at 3.50%–3.75% since December 2025. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its September meeting by voting unanimously to raise rates by a quarter point, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75–4.0%. This single move already satisfies "at least 1 hike," so the "exactly 1" question now hinges entirely on whether a second hike occurs at the Oct 27–28 or Dec 8–9 meetings. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts - [2026-09-16] 12 of 18 FOMC participants projected the year-end 2026 target range a quarter-point higher than the post-hike 3.75%–4.00% range, while four projected two additional quarter-point hikes — i.e., a strong majority of the Committee's own dot plot sees at least one more 2026 hike, which would push the total above 1. https://www.bondsavvy.com/fixed-income-investments-blog/fed-dot-plot - [2026-10-04] On Polymarket's "How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?" market (opened Jun 23, 2026, resolving Dec 31, 2026), the outcome "2 (50bps)" trades far above "1 (25bps)": the market assigns roughly 63% to two total hikes versus about 26% to exactly one, with small tails for three or more. https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369 - [2026-10-04] A separate, narrower Polymarket contract, "Another Fed rate hike in 2026?" (i.e., a second hike beyond September), priced the probability of at least one additional hike by year-end at 79%, up from a similar reading a few weeks earlier, reflecting persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target... combined with the September 2026 rate hike... and hawkish dot-plot projections as the driver (figures paraphrased from the market's own context). https://polymarket.com/event/another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026 - [2026-09-10] Ahead of the September decision, CME FedWatch pricing had swung from near coin-flip odds a week earlier to roughly 62% implied probability of a hike, illustrating how rapidly rate-path expectations have moved in 2026 and underscoring the volatility of any point-in-time "base rate" read for this cycle. https://www.vantagemarkets.com/market-analysis/fed-rate-probability-cme-fedwatch-explained/ - [2026-08-07] Earlier in the cycle, CME FedWatch had priced the odds of a hike at the subsequent (then-upcoming) meetings at roughly 55% for October and nearly 75% for December, showing market participants have for months leaned toward more than a single hike in 2026 rather than a one-and-done move. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/odds-the-fed-hikes-in-september-tumble-following-big-july-jobs-miss.html - [2026-09-14] Bank forecasts diverge sharply: Bank of America has projected three separate 25-basis-point hikes in 2026, which would push rates to the 4.25–4.50% range , while BMO's Jennifer Lee has argued the Fed would hold rates steady through 2026, with any cuts not arriving until Q4 2027 at the earliest — both views imply an "exactly 1 hike" outcome is a minority scenario among professional forecasters, who cluster around either zero/no-further-hikes (making total possibly 1) or multiple hikes (making total 2–3). - [2026-09-18] Barclays, per Forbes reporting ahead of the September meeting, anticipated two more rate hikes this year, in September and December, totaling 50 basis points — i.e., explicitly forecasting 2 hikes (not exactly 1) as its base case even before September's move was confirmed. https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2026/08/31/cme-fedwatch-provides-a-66-chance-fed-will-hike-rates-in-september/ - [2026-09-xx] Historical base rate context: modern Fed tightening episodes (1994–95, 1999–2000, 2004–06, 2015–18, 2022–23) have almost never consisted of a single isolated hike followed by a halt within the same calendar year; once the Committee breaks a hold/cut regime to hike, it has historically tended to follow through with additional moves in subsequent meetings within months, especially when, as now, inflation is still running well above target and several officials dissent in favor of more tightening. This structural pattern favors "more than 1" over "exactly 1" as the more common historical outcome once a hiking cycle begins. - [2026-10-04] The remaining 2026 meetings are October 27–28 and December 8–9 (the latter with a fresh SEP/dot plot), giving two more live opportunities for a second hike before the contract's close; market-implied odds reviewed above suggest October has cooled (roughly 15–20% implied per some trackers) while December carries the bulk of the "second hike" probability (60–79% depending on venue). https://www.mexc.com/learn/article/fomc-meeting-schedule-2026-every-fed-decision-date-dot-plot-release-and-what-to-expect/1 BOTTOM LINE: A single 25bp hike has already occurred (September 2026), satisfying the "at least 1" threshold, but the dominant base-rate pattern for Fed tightening cycles plus a majority of the FOMC's own dot plot, bank forecasts (BofA, Barclays), and prediction-market pricing (Polymarket ~63-79% probability of a second hike) all point toward "more than 1" hike by year-end being more likely than "exactly 1," making this contract's historical/analyst-consensus reference class lean toward NO. NOT FOUND: Could not find a Kalshi-specific historical base rate for "exactly N Fed hikes in a year" type contracts, nor a comprehensive academic tally of how often single-hike-then-pause years occurred historically; also could not obtain a live, current-day CME FedWatch snapshot for the December 2026 meeting specifically (only slightly dated figures from August–October reports).

YES means: the FOMC delivers exactly one rate hike (a cumulative upper-bound increase of 1–25 bps net of any offsetting cuts) across all of calendar-year 2026 — i.e., the September 16 hike to 3.75%–4.00% stands as the only hike, with no further hike (and no additional 26bp+ move, which would count as 2+) at the October 27–28 or December 8–9 meetings. - [2026-10-05] Soft September payrolls (nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000) and weaker August PCE data have materially cooled hike expectations since the September meeting, per an investinglive minutes preview citing the post-meeting data shift. https://investinglive.com/central-banks/fed-minutes-preview-one-more-hike-guidance-meets-softer-data-as-october-odds-fade - [2026-10-05] Markets have cut the probability of an October hike to "below one in four," reversing from much higher odds in the prior week, per the same Fed-minutes preview. https://investinglive.com/central-banks/fed-minutes-preview-one-more-hike-guidance-meets-softer-data-as-october-odds-fade - [2026-10-04] CME FedWatch put the probability the Fed holds steady at the October 28 meeting at 77% as of October 4, 2026. https://growbeansprout.com/tools/fedwatch - [2026-10-05] Governor Michelle Bowman has indicated "a preference for no further hikes in 2026," making her the clearest dovish voting-camp voice against a second 2026 hike, ahead of a scheduled Tuesday speech. https://investinglive.com/central-banks/fed-minutes-preview-one-more-hike-guidance-meets-softer-data-as-october-odds-fade - [2026-10-01] NY Fed President John Williams said "there is no need for urgency" on changing current policy, a voting-member signal against rushing to a second hike. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-may-time-next-interest-173209828.html - [2026-10-01] Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said future policy decisions should "fully take into account incoming data, the outlook and the balance of risks," and that "it may take more time to make that judgment," language markets read as leaving the door open to an extended hold. https://en.bloomingbit.io/feed/news/121450 - [2026-10-05] Per the September dot-plot breakdown reported in the minutes preview, of 18 participants only six penciled in exactly one further 2026 hike (consistent with "exactly 1" for the year once combined with September's move), while eight saw two or more additional increases and four saw cuts — showing a meaningful bloc already aligned with the "no more hikes" or "one-and-done" outcome. https://investinglive.com/central-banks/fed-minutes-preview-one-more-hike-guidance-meets-softer-data-as-october-odds-fade - [2026-10-05] A Reuters-sourced report noted Fed policymakers this week made "an unusually clear case for taking in more data before deciding about another interest-rate hike," which drove investors to "largely abandon bets on an interest rate increase" at the late-October meeting. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-may-time-next-interest-173209828.html - [2026-10-03] Historical seasonal pattern cited by Yahoo Finance: "Since 1990, the Fed has never hiked interest rates when it met in October ahead of a midterm election in November," a precedent favoring an October hold. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/october-fomc-why-fed-pause-153500416.html - [2026-10-05] Even analysts who still expect a hike concede the question is increasingly about whether it comes at all versus merely being delayed; TD Securities "still expects another Fed hike" but "acknowledges that policymakers could adopt a more gradual approach," leaving room for the hike to be skipped entirely if data continues to soften into December. https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-are-pricing-a-fed-pause-the-jobs-data-says-the-hike-is-still-coming-202610011351 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest path to YES is that October is held (77% FedWatch hold probability, heavy dovish commentary from Williams/Jefferson/Bowman) and that continued soft labor and inflation data between now and December persuade the Committee — which the minutes preview shows was already split (six of 18 at "one more," four at cuts) — to skip a second hike altogether, leaving September's single 25bp move as the only 2026 hike. NOT FOUND: A live, dated CME FedWatch or Polymarket probability specifically for the December 8-9 meeting (only the October meeting figure and general "December has higher odds than October" commentary were available); no evidence yet of the September FOMC minutes' actual text (due Oct 7, after this search).

YES means: the FOMC delivers exactly one rate hike (of 1-25bp, or an equivalent single bucketed move) during calendar year 2026 — i.e., the September 16 hike stands and the Committee does NOT deliver any additional hike at the October 27-28 or December 8-9 meetings. The dimension here argues for NO, i.e., that a second (or larger) hike occurs this year, pushing the total above 1. - [2026-10-02] A weak September jobs report — markets are now pricing in nearly a 22.1% probability of a Fed rate hike in October and an 87.2% chance of an increase in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool — shows the hiking path has shifted timing (away from October) but not direction; December remains the dominant path to a second hike. https://fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-drifts-higher-above-06950-on-soft-us-jobs-data-202610042321 - [2026-10-05] The same weak-jobs repricing is corroborated by an independent tracker: the CME FedWatch tool now shows a 22% chance of an October hike, down from 64% a week earlier... yet December hike odds sit near 87% in one report, so the data delayed tightening rather than ending it . https://discoveryalert.com/news/gold-price-outlook-fed-hike-odds-october-2026 - [2026-10-02] The underlying data behind that repricing: employers added just 29,000 jobs in September against a 12-month average of 45,000, and July and August revisions removed 60,000 jobs in total — a soft report, but one explicitly framed by markets as delaying rather than cancelling a second hike. - [2026-10-04] Fed sentiment trackers show hawkishness intensifying even after the soft jobs data: Fed's Logan delivered a notably more hawkish message, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 9.2/10, well above the 8.1/10 historical average , and the FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 1.68 points to 136.59, confirming a solid move deeper into hawkish territory (figure drawn from the same FXStreet piece). https://fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-drifts-higher-above-06950-on-soft-us-jobs-data-202610042321 - [2026-09-22] A Fidelity analysis of the September meeting states plainly that the new dot plot is more hawkish than the last one in June, with officials signaling that they expect rates to remain higher for longer , reinforcing that the Committee's own median path, not just hawkish dissenters, points to a second 2026 move. https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/federal-reserve-raises-rates-officials-signal-one-more-hike-in-2026 - [2026-09-22] Nuveen's post-meeting note is more cautious but still flags the risk to the "exactly 1" outcome: we expect this to be a rare one and done hike, though the hawkish tilt and decisiveness of the decision keep another hike on the table by year-end . https://www.nuveen.com/en-us/insights/investment-outlook/fed-update - [2026-10-07] FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting are scheduled for release this week minutes from September's FOMC meeting will be released Wednesday, October 7, alongside consumer credit data , a near-term catalyst that could re-firm December hike pricing if they reveal broader hawkish consensus than the statement implied. https://www.schaeffersresearch.com/content/news/2026/10/01/the-week-ahead-fomc-meeting-minutes-take-center-stage - [2026-10-05] A separate rate-probability model (not CME-based) corroborates the multi-hike base case, showing markets price 84 bp of tightening in total — about 3.4 hikes — across the next 9 meetings , and a 79.4% cumulative probability of being 19.9 bp higher by December 9, 2026 — both readings implausible to reconcile with a stop-at-one scenario. https://centralbank.watch/federal-reserve/ - [2026-10-05] One analyst tracker's October-specific numbers corroborate the fxstreet/discoveryalert figures almost exactly: the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 77.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates through October... while a cumulative 25 basis point hike carries a 62.3% likelihood by December, with a 50 basis point cumulative increase priced at 24.3% — meaning markets assign a non-trivial ~24% chance the year ends with a 50bp cumulative move (itself "two hikes" under the contract's own bucket rule), further eroding the "exactly 1" case. https://phemex.com/news/article/cme-fedwatch-779-probability-fed-holds-rates-in-october-98766 - [2026-10-01] Logan's hawkish stance is not an outlier dissent but was echoed broadly: Bank of America's house view, cited across multiple trackers, remains Bank of America forecasts three 25-basis-point hikes, pushing rates to 4.25–4.50% , a scenario that would make this contract resolve NO twice over (both exceeding "exactly 1" and triggering the 51-75bp "three-hike" bucket). https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/fed-rate-hike-probability-hits-90-by-year-end-2026-cme-fedwatch-shows - [2026-10-05] Countervailing status-quo risk for the NO case: soft labor data (unemployment 4.2%, sub-trend payrolls) and a dovish minority could still produce a "one-and-done" outcome if December data disappoints again, which is the scenario BMO's Jennifer Lee and Nuveen's house view flag as plausible, keeping real uncertainty in the December decision rather than a settled hawkish consensus. BOTTOM LINE: Status-quo inertia argues against "exactly 1": every fresh market-pricing source (CME FedWatch ~87% December hike odds, a 3.4-hike aggregate tightening estimate, and intensifying hawkish Fedspeak from Logan post-September) points to a second move most likely in December, which would push the 2026 total to 2 (or, in a tail scenario, 3) hikes and resolve the contract NO; the main offsetting risk is that weak labor data (29k September payrolls, 4.2% unemployment, large downward revisions) could still produce a genuine pause. NOT FOUND: Could not find CME FedWatch's live snapshot for exactly today (Oct 5); figures cited are from Oct 2-5 reports converging around 22% October / 87% December. Also could not confirm whether the October 7 FOMC minutes release (imminent but after this report's cutoff) altered pricing, nor find any official Fed communication explicitly ruling out a second 2026 hike.