Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 36% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?

- [2026-09-24] VoteHub's polling average placed Trump at 38 percent approval and 60.4 percent disapproval, also producing a net rating of minus 22.4 , per Newsweek's report on VoteHub's Sept. 23, 2026 average. This is the most recent VoteHub-specific figure found and sits well above the 36% threshold. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-all-time-low-nate-silver-12482345 - [2026-09-24] Newsweek reported VoteHub's head of data science said VoteHub's polling average also shows Trump's net approval at a record-low minus 22.4 points, worse than any president at this stage since polling began in 1945 , indicating a record-low net rating but an approval level still at 38%, not below 36%. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-all-time-low-nate-silver-12482345 - [2025-11-30] Gallup (a separate pollster, not VoteHub) reported Trump's approval had fallen to 36%, the lowest of his second term to that point, as noted in a newsletter summary: "President Donald Trump's job approval rating has fallen five percentage points to 36%, the lowest of his second term" (Megan Brenan, Gallup, via Opinion Today). This shows individual polls were already near/at the 36% line by late Nov 2025, though this is Gallup's number, not VoteHub's aggregate. https://opiniontoday.substack.com/p/251130 - [2026-09-24] A Wikipedia aggregator table compiling multiple trackers (not including VoteHub directly) showed an average of 36.1% approval across FiftyPlusOne (34.7%), Silver Bulletin (37.4%), The Economist (35.0%) and The New York Times (37.0%) on Sept. 24, 2026, illustrating that some trackers (Economist, FiftyPlusOne) were already below 36% while others (Silver Bulletin, NYT) were above it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_second_Trump_presidency - [2026-10-01] Individual national polls have dipped well under 36% recently: an AP-NORC poll released Oct. 1, 2026 found Trump's approval at just 31%, with 69% disapproving. https://politicalwire.com/2026/10/01/trump-approval-at-just-31/ - [2026-09-30] CNN's tracker showed a CBS News/YouGov poll (Sept. 30–Oct. 2, 2026) with Trump at 39% approval, 61% disapproval, indicating divergence among individual polls even in early October. https://www.cnn.com/polling/approval/trump-polls - [2026-09-30] NBC News's own polling average (a separate aggregator from VoteHub) showed Trump at 39% approve / 59% disapprove as of Sept. 30, 2026, again above the 36% line. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/presidential-approval-polls - [2026-09-29] A "List Wire"/Yahoo roundup citing Civiqs put Trump's national approval at 34% entering October 2026, with 60% disapproving, again below 36% but from a tracker other than VoteHub. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/americans-continue-disapprove-job-president-202526541.html - [2026-10-02] Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver's tracker, frequently cross-validated against VoteHub) placed Trump's overall approval at 37.6% in its Sept. 23 average, with net approval at an all-time low of -22.7 to -23 as of Oct. 2, 2026 — still above the 36% approval threshold even as net approval hit record lows. https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin - [2026-09-23] VoteHub's own homepage confirms it maintains live "Trump Approval," "Trump Approval: 2026 High," and "Trump Approval: 2026 Low" trackers, but the rendered page does not expose the current numeric values via static fetch; the most recent reported VoteHub number (38%/60.4%) comes via secondary reporting (Newsweek). https://votehub.com/ NOT FOUND: A direct, dated VoteHub numeric readout for approval in the past two weeks (i.e., after Sept. 23, 2026) could not be retrieved — VoteHub's site renders its live averages via JavaScript/API that did not return numeric values in a static fetch. Could not confirm whether VoteHub's own aggregate (as distinct from Gallup, Civiqs, Economist, or AP-NORC) has dipped below 36% at any single-day reading since the market opened Dec 11, 2025. BOTTOM LINE: As of the most recent available VoteHub-specific data point (Sept. 23, 2026: 38% approve/60.4% disapprove, net -22.4), VoteHub's aggregate has not yet shown approval below 36%, even though several individual polls (AP-NORC 31%, Reuters/Ipsos low-30s, Civiqs 34%) and some rival aggregators (Economist, FiftyPlusOne) have already crossed below that level — meaning VoteHub's average could plausibly cross 36% soon given the broader downward trend, but has not been confirmed to have done so yet.

- [2026-09-06] Wikipedia's aggregator comparison table shows VoteHub's approval average at 38.5% approve, 58.4% disapprove (net −19.9%) as of Sept 6, 2026 — still above the 36% threshold but among the lower end of trackers that day (CNN and The Economist both already at 35.0%). - [2026-09-23/24] VoteHub separately placed Trump at 38 percent approval and 60.4 percent disapproval, producing a net rating of minus 22.4 , matching Nate Silver's tracker and described by VoteHub's head of data science as a record-low minus 22.4 points, worse than any president at this stage since polling began in 1945 . VoteHub's own average was thus still just above 36% at this point, but closing in. - [2026-04-17] VoteHub's own polling-average thread stated Trump's approval rating has hit a record low in our polling average, falling into the 30s for the first time, with 39.9% approve and 56.6% disapprove (net -16.7, down 5 points in 6 weeks) , showing VoteHub's average had been well above 36% through most of H1 2026. - [2026-10-01] Ballotpedia's own tracker (close methodology cousin) found approval polling averages showed Trump at 39% approval at the end of September, with September recording the lowest average approval rating of his second term at 38% , indicating cross-tracker convergence just above, not below, 36%. - [2026-09-21 to 09-29] Individual national polls have repeatedly dipped below 36% (Reuters/Ipsos 32%, American Research Group 29%, Quinnipiac 34%, CNN/SSRS 33%, Verasight/Strength in Numbers 33%, FT/Focaldata 33%), per American Research Group, conducted September 16-20 among 1,100 American adults, showed the president with a 29 percent overall approval rating and Trump's 33% approval rating is a new low point for either of his terms, according to CNN/SSRS polling — but these are individual polls, not the VoteHub composite average, which smooths such outliers. - [2025-11-28] Gallup (a major input but not VoteHub itself) reported President Donald Trump's job approval rating has fallen five percentage points to 36%, the lowest of his second term , with his all-time low was 34% in 2021, at the end of his first term after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol — establishing 36% as already a historically newsworthy threshold for Trump specifically. - [2026-10-03] Wikipedia's summary characterizes the whole-term trend: Throughout 2025 to 2026, Trump's approval rating has steadily declined to an average of 36 to 37% , confirming the trajectory has been persistently downward with no sustained reversals. - [2026-09-24] A multi-aggregator snapshot (not VoteHub, but comparable methodology) already showed several trackers below 36%: FiftyPlusOne 34.7%, The Economist 35.0%, Silver Bulletin 37.4%, The New York Times 37.0%, Average 36.1% , meaning VoteHub (not listed that day but tracking similarly) is operating in a band where small further erosion would cross 36%. - Base-rate read: this is not a "rare tail event" question — approval tracking is already hovering in the 36-39% band with a clear, multi-month downward trend accelerating around the Sept–Oct 2026 shutdown/economy news cycle, and several comparable, methodologically similar trackers (Economist, FiftyPlusOne, CNN, Gallup) have already independently touched or breached sub-36% readings in the same window. - Historically, once Trump's approval trend turns persistently negative it has not meaningfully recovered within the same term (per Silver Bulletin's observation that short-term events have produced upward movements in Trump's numbers, but none has reversed the longer decline ), suggesting continuation rather than reversal is the more likely base-rate pattern for VoteHub crossing 36% at some point before Dec 31, 2026. NOT FOUND: I could not directly access VoteHub's live approval tracker page (votehub.com/approval) to confirm its exact, most-recent (October 2026) numeric reading, nor could I find a specific VoteHub press release/tweet stating its own average fell below 36% at any discrete date; comparisons rely on secondary citations (Newsweek, Wikipedia, Ballotpedia) of VoteHub's reported figures. BOTTOM LINE: Across 2025-2026, Trump's approval (both VoteHub's own average and closely comparable trackers) has trended steadily downward from the high-40s/50s at inauguration into the high-30s by late 2025 and the 36-39% band by September-October 2026, with individual polls and several sister aggregators already dipping into the low-to-mid 30s; the sustained, accelerating decline and lack of historical reversals make a sub-36% VoteHub reading at some point before Dec 31, 2026 consistent with the dominant trend rather than an outlier scenario.

YES means: VoteHub's Trump approval-rating aggregate reads below 36% approve on at least one day between Dec 11, 2025 and Dec 31, 2026. - [2026-09-23] VoteHub itself confirmed that for the first time its disapproval crossed 60%, with Trump's disapproval exceeding 60% for the first time in VoteHub's polling average, and his net approval falling to a record low of −22.4 points , the lowest net reading of either term — showing the trajectory is still accelerating downward, not stabilizing. - [2026-09-06] Wikipedia's aggregator-comparison table (sourced from Wikipedia's tracking of multiple pollsters) placed VoteHub at 38.5% approve, 58.4% disapprove on September 6, 2026 , with CNN and The Economist already at 35.0% that same day — confirming VoteHub sits at the higher end of trackers but only ~2.5 points above the 36% line, a gap closing fast given the September 23 drop to 38%/net −22.4. - [2026-10-02] Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin — whose September 23 average "independently pointed to the same net rating" as VoteHub — reported overall approval at 37.6 percent in Silver Bulletin's September 23 average , and Silver himself noted "Trump approval now at -22.4, his low point for the term and now lower than at any point in his first term, even after Jan. 6," underscoring that VoteHub's near-twin tracker is only 1.6 points above the 36% threshold. - [2026-09-28] A new Wall Street Journal poll found Trump's approval rating hit a record low of 37% ahead of the upcoming midterms , the lowest pre-midterm reading for any president in the outlet's polling history since George H.W. Bush — another high-quality national poll feeding aggregators just 1 point above the line. - [2026-10-02] Forbes reported that in a new NBC News survey, Trump's 36% approval rating is one point below what it was in April, a record low in the group's polling during his second term , with a "significant decline in his support among his base." - [2026-10-04] FiftyPlusOne's own live tracker — a comparable "poll-of-polls" aggregator — now shows approval already below the threshold, at **35.0% approve / 62.2% disapprove** as of October 4, 2026, down from 35.9% on September 6. - [2026-10-01] AP-NORC's national poll, released October 1, 2026, found Trump's approval at just 31%, with 69% disapproving — one of several individual high-quality polls now running 5+ points below VoteHub's own reading, which will continue to pull VoteHub's weighted average down as these polls roll in. - [2026-09-20] Verasight/Strength in Numbers (G. Elliott Morris) found 33% of Americans approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president and 63% disapprove, a net rating of −30, the worst reading in the 16 waves of this poll since May 2025 , with Republican approval itself falling sharply — evidence the erosion is now spreading into Trump's base, a leading indicator for aggregate declines. - [2026-10-02] Forbes/AP-NORC also found Trump's approval on handling the economy fell to an all-time low of 26%, and his approval on Iran policy tied his all-time low of 28% — compounding issue-specific negatives that typically precede further overall-approval erosion in VoteHub's model. - Mechanism for YES: VoteHub's aggregate (38% on Sept 23, no more-recent public number found) needs to fall only ~2-3 more points to cross 36%. Given that essentially every contemporaneous individual poll and comparable aggregator (WSJ 37%, NBC 36%, FiftyPlusOne 35.0%, Economist/CNN already at 35%, AP-NORC 31–36%, Verasight 33%) is now at or below 36-37%, and VoteHub's own September 23 net approval (−22.4) was its worst of either term with no reversal yet visible, continued decline of just a few tenths of a point per week would push VoteHub below 36% well before the Dec 31, 2026 deadline. NOT FOUND: A VoteHub-specific numeric readout newer than September 23, 2026 (38% approve) could not be retrieved directly from votehub.com or via secondary reporting; no confirmed sub-36% VoteHub reading has yet been documented. BOTTOM LINE: VoteHub's last confirmed reading (38% approve, Sept 23, 2026) sits only 2 points above the 36% threshold at a moment of record-low net approval (−22.4) with virtually every peer tracker and individual poll already at or below 36-37% and no sign of reversal — making a sub-36% VoteHub reading before Dec 31, 2026 a highly plausible, near-term continuation of the existing trend rather than a low-probability tail event.

YES means: VoteHub's own published approval average dips below 36% approve on at least one reported reading between Dec 11, 2025 and Dec 31, 2026. - [2026-09-20] A tracker built directly on "VoteHub API" data (trumptimer.us) shows the newest VoteHub-sourced poll record at Aug 28, 2026 reading approve 38%, disapprove 52%, net -14% — a figure comfortably above 36% and with a narrower net-negative spread than the -22-point net reported by Newsweek for the same late-summer window, indicating VoteHub's underlying poll mix still contains readings well north of 36%. https://trumptimer.us/approval-rating/ - [2026-10-01] ActiVote's Oct. 1, 2026 release found ActiVote's October 1, 2026 presidential approval poll finds that President Trump's approval rating is at 37.7%, while his disapproval rating is at 55.4%, yielding a net disapproval of 17.7%. This is a stabilization signal from a poll with a title explicitly framing approval as "holding steady," not in free-fall, as the shutdown-era news cycle continues. https://www.activote.net/analysis/trumps-approval-holds-steady-as-disapproval-eases/ - [2026-10-04] A separate Wikipedia-cross-sourced aggregator (uspollingdata.com), compiled from Gallup, Reuters/Ipsos, YouGov, Quinnipiac and Morning Consult — a methodology close kin to VoteHub's own poll-averaging approach — put Trump approval rating October 2026: 37.3% approve, 60.3% disapprove (-23.0 net) , still above the 36% line even as net approval sits at a record low, showing that headline net-negative records do not necessarily translate into a sub-36% approve reading. https://uspollingdata.com/polls/trump-approval/ - [2025-11/2025-12 to 2026-01] AP-NORC's own national polling — a key VoteHub input — held essentially flat at the 36-37% line for months rather than cascading lower: Despite growing discontent with his management of the government, Trump's overall approval rating has remained steady. About 36% of Americans say they approve of his performance as president, roughly unchanged from 37% in an October AP-NORC survey. This multi-month plateau at/just-above 36%, rather than continued decline, is evidence of a sticky floor rather than inevitable breach. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-polls-republicans-government-shutdown-11035070 - [2025-11-13] The same AP-NORC data point recorded via Opinion Today newsletter confirms Overall, 62% disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as president, while 36% approve. This is largely unchanged from October, when 61% disapproved and 36% approved. Two consecutive months at exactly 36% (not below it) during the most acute shutdown-driven stress-test of the whole period is a direct precedent for the floor holding rather than breaking. https://opiniontoday.substack.com/p/251113 - [2026-xx] Historical-mechanism evidence from a dedicated shutdown-impact analysis: after the record-length 2025 shutdown ended, It 43% when it ended. After the government reopened, Trump's approval fell further to 42.4% and has remained below the pre-shutdown level — i.e., even the single largest negative shock of the term only pushed the aggregate into the low 40s, not under 36%, reinforcing that a 36% VoteHub reading requires a materially larger or additional shock beyond what has already occurred. https://pollitik.substack.com/p/how-do-government-shutdowns-affect - [2026-10-04] Narrower subgroup results, such as the NBC News/Telemundo poll showing Latino approval at just 27%, are being reported prominently, but these are demographic subgroups, not the national topline VoteHub tracks — a reminder that eye-catching sub-36% numbers in current coverage often refer to subsets, not VoteHub's overall average. https://nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/transcripts/meet-press-october-4-2026-rcna601407 - [2026-10-04] FiftyPlusOne's live tracker shows approve at 35.0% as of Oct. 4, 2026 — below 36% — but this is a different, more Democratic-leaning-weighted aggregator than VoteHub; VoteHub's most recent confirmed reading (Sept. 23-24) remained at 38%, a 2-3 point buffer above even this low-end rival tracker. https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/approval/president - [2026-10-05] No VoteHub-specific numeric reading below 36% has been found in any dated, sourced report as of this writing; every directly-attributed VoteHub figure located (April 17 39.9%, June 9 35% [disputed secondary mention], Sept. 6 38.5%, Sept. 23-24 38%) has stayed at or above 36% except for one ambiguous June 9 "historic low of 35%" social post that lacks a primary VoteHub citation and could not be verified against VoteHub's own page. BOTTOM LINE: Every confirmed, dated VoteHub-attributed reading from April through late September 2026 has stayed at or above 36% (range ~38-40%), AP-NORC's own input polls plateaued at exactly 36% for multiple months without breaching lower, and the term's single largest stress event (the record-length shutdown) only pushed aggregates into the low 40s — all consistent with a resilient floor near 36-38% rather than a confirmed sub-36% VoteHub crossing. NOT FOUND: A primary, dated VoteHub.com screenshot or API pull showing a numeric reading below 36% at any point since Dec 11, 2025; VoteHub's live site renders values via JavaScript that did not return numbers on static fetch, and the "35%" figure attributed to VoteHub for June 9, 2026 lacks a verifiable primary citation.