Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

- [2026-07-21] Arizona held primary elections; Andy Biggs won the Republican gubernatorial nomination with 73.6% of the vote over Rep. David Schweikert, while Katie Hobbs secured the Democratic nomination unopposed. Primary elections took place on July 21, 2026. Hobbs secured the Democratic nomination unopposed. Biggs secured the Republican nomination over congressman David Schweikert with 73.6% of the vote. Biggs' running mate is Sine Kerr and Hobbs' is John Giles. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arizona_gubernatorial_election) - [2025-11-13 to 2026-08-24] Aggregated across 37 polls, PoliAgg's weighted average has Hobbs leading Biggs 45.2% to 39.2%, with the race rated "Likely D." Polling average rates this race Likely D (D+6.9, sourced from polls). The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+4.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.1 (10th pctile) to D+15.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 71% chance of winning. (https://poliagg.com/race/us-governor-2026-az/) - [2026-08-18] A HighGround Public Affairs poll showed Hobbs's largest recent lead, 49.5%-34.3% (15 points), with independents breaking heavily for Hobbs (54.5% to 19.3%). A new HighGround poll shows Katie Hobbs leading Andy Biggs 49.5% to 34.3% in the 2026 Arizona governor's race, with independents breaking for Hobbs. The poll, released Monday, shows Hobbs leading 49.5% to 34.3% among likely voters. She carries independent voters 54.5% to 19.3% and women 56.7% to 28.8%. (https://ktar.com/arizona-politics-news/election/poll-katie-hobbs-lead-andy-biggs) - [2026-08-13] Noble Predictive Insights' poll showed Hobbs leading Biggs 48%-35%, a 13-point margin, with analysts attributing the shift to Hobbs's summer ad spending. Hobbs is leading Republican Andy Biggs among all likely voters 48% to 35%, a 13-point margin. Officials with Noble Predictive Insights had an explanation behind Hobbs' rise in the polls. (https://www.fox10phoenix.com/election/2026-election-new-poll-shows-hobbs-leading-biggs-arizona-governors-race) - [2026-07-31] Hobbs's campaign announced she will not debate Biggs before the general election, marking the second straight cycle she has skipped a gubernatorial debate. Katie Hobbs has avoided debates since 2018. But can she win re-election without debating Andy Biggs? Biggs' team confirmed he would still participate in a debate organized by the Citizens Clean Elections Commission. Biggs senior adviser Drew Sexton said the Republican nominee will participate in a gubernatorial debate scheduled for Oct. 6 by the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission. (https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/arizona-debate-questions-katie-hobbs-andy-biggs-40684485/, https://californiaglobe.com/fr/hobbs-refuses-debate-with-andy-biggs-in-arizona-governors-race/) - [2026-10-06] A statewide gubernatorial debate organized by the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission is scheduled for this date; it remains unclear who, if anyone, will debate Biggs since Hobbs declined to participate. Sexton did say that Biggs will participate in the debate being organized for Oct. 6 by the Citizens Clean Elections Commission. Less clear, however, is who — if anyone — he will be debating. (https://www.kjzz.org/elections/2026-08-01/hobbs-biggs-wont-debate-before-november-arizona-governor-election) - [2026-09-22] Biggs rolled out a policy platform promising tax cuts (including eventual elimination of the state income tax) and ESA/school-choice support if elected, while continuing to attack Hobbs on vetoes affecting education and public safety. We will take the first step towards eliminating our state income tax. We will codify the repeal of Katie Hobbs' housing moratorium that cut off the supply of new single-family homes in our fastest-growing areas, (https://www.azfamily.com/2026/09/23/arizona-governor-candidate-andy-biggs-breaks-with-trump-over-iran/) - [2026-09-22] Biggs publicly broke with President Trump, stating he does not support the war in Iran amid rising gas prices, even though he had voted against measures limiting Trump's war powers. Republican candidate for governor Andy Biggs said Tuesday that he does not support the war in Iran, separating himself from President Trump's position as Arizonans deal with higher gas prices. "I don't support the war, per se," Biggs said. The comment marks a break from Trump, even though Biggs voted against multiple measures in Congress that would have limited the president's war powers in Iran. (https://www.azfamily.com/2026/09/23/arizona-governor-candidate-andy-biggs-breaks-with-trump-over-iran/) - [2026-09-15] A comparative profile piece noted Biggs retains Trump's endorsement and Turning Point Action backing, while Hobbs has been a sharp critic of Trump's tariffs; both campaigns are running negative ads accusing each other of "protecting pedophiles," and independents are seen as pivotal. Biggs received Trump's endorsement for governor in 2025 and is backed by Turning Point Action. Hobbs is a harsh critic of Trump, blaming his tariffs and other policies for driving up costs for Arizona families and businesses. Katie Hobbs and Andy Biggs agree on little beyond one thing: Arizona's independent voters may hold the key to the governor's race. Both campaigns are running negative attack ads, with each accusing the other of protecting pedophiles. (https://www.azfamily.com/2026/09/15/fight-arizona-governor-is-what-separates-hobbs-biggs/) - [2026-09-25] The Biggs/Kerr campaign issued a press release attacking Hobbs over alleged "pay-to-play" contracting scandals, part of an escalating closing-month attack strategy as the campaign also publicized county stops and a policy rollout (per campaign's own news page). (https://biggsforarizona.com/news/) - [2026-10-01] Arizona PBS's "AZ Votes 2026" aired an interview with Biggs; Hobbs declined to be interviewed for the same segment, continuing her pattern of avoiding joint/unscripted forums with Biggs. As part of Arizona PBS' ongoing "AZ Votes 2026" election coverage initiative, Ted Simons spoke with Andy Biggs, Republican candidate for Arizona Governor and current U.S. Congressional District 5 Representative. The Democratic incumbent, Governor Katie Hobbs, declined to be interviewed. (https://azpbs.org/azvotes/2026/09/discussion-andy-biggs-republican-candidate-for-arizona-governor/) - [2026-09-19 (latest poll in RCP table dated 11/8-11/10, likely a data error)] RealClearPolitics' average (drawing on Emerson and Noble polls) shows Hobbs +1.5 (41.5% to 40.0%), narrower than other aggregators; cross-aggregator spread (PoliAgg D+4.9 to +7.3, RCP D+1.5, VoteHub D+7.2) indicates genuine uncertainty in margin size though direction is consistent. (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2026/governor/az/2026_arizona_governor_biggs_vs_hobbs-8683.html) BOTTOM LINE: Every independent poll since the July 21 primary — and every aggregator (PoliAgg, VoteHub, uspollingdata) — shows incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs leading Republican nominee Andy Biggs, generally by mid-to-high single digits and widening since August; Hobbs has reinforced her position by declining to debate while Biggs has run into some friction with Trump on Iran. This fundamentals/polling picture points toward Hobbs/Democrats as favored, making a Republican win the less likely outcome as of early October 2026. NOT FOUND: No polling or news dated after September 25, 2026 was found (i.e., nothing from the final 10 days before this report); outcome of the October 6 Clean Elections debate (format/participants) was not yet confirmed; no post-debate polling.

- [2026-10-04] Five weeks out from Election Day, traders on both Kalshi and Polymarket were forecasting an 87% probability that Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs would secure a second term. Recent polling points in the same direction, but with far less certainty: five of the most recent public surveys reviewed by Cronkite News all found Hobbs ahead of Biggs, though her lead ranged from 15 percentage points to a statistical tie. (yourvalley.net/Daily Independent) - [2026-10-01] Cook Political Report's October 1, 2026 ratings place Arizona governor in the "Solid Democrat" category , alongside Michigan, Iowa and Oregon — a marked shift from the "Toss Up" rating it held earlier in the cycle (cookpolitical.com). - [2026-07-13] Cook's narrative piece noted the governor's race in the Grand Canyon State moved from "toss up" to "lean Democrat," citing Gov. Katie Hobbs's (D) fundraising advantage over likely Republican nominee Rep. Andy Biggs, as well as her relatively strong approval ratings (The Hill). - [2026-01-28] Earlier in the cycle Cook had it as a true Toss Up, writing it's unclear that Republicans will be unified enough to topple a mild-mannered governor with few glaring flaws... a bruising August primary could leave the GOP's eventual nominee limping into a high-stakes general election that currently sits in the Toss Up column (cookpolitical.com). - [2025-09-04 / 2026] Sabato's Crystal Ball rated the race "Lean D" as of September 2025, consistent with the Wikipedia-aggregated ratings table showing Inside Elections "Tossup," RealClearPolitics "Tossup," and Race to the WH "Lean D" by mid-2026 (en.wikipedia.org/2026_Arizona_gubernatorial_election). - [2026-05-16] Polling averages compiled on Wikipedia show Hobbs leading Biggs by roughly 6 points in a RealClearPolitics/Race-to-the-WH composite (44.4% Hobbs to 38.4% Biggs) based on polls from November 2025–May 2026 (en.wikipedia.org/2026_Arizona_gubernatorial_election). - [Historical base rate] Since 1992, Arizona has had Arizona Party Control: 1992-2025 — No Democratic trifectas, Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas , but at the gubernatorial level specifically, Democrats have won 2 of the last 5 elections (2006, 2022) against 3 Republican wins (2010, 2014 was D actually — correct pattern below). - [Historical governor results] Gubernatorial elections: 2022 50.3% Democratic, 2018 56.0% Republican, 2014 53.4% Democratic, 2010 54.3% Republican, 2006 62.6% Democratic — i.e., 3 Democratic wins and 2 Republican wins in the last five cycles (Ballotpedia/2026 election guide page). - [2022 baseline] The most recent race was razor-thin: the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022; Democratic secretary of state Katie Hobbs defeated Republican former television journalist Kari Lake , by a margin of only 0.67 points (1,287,891 to 1,270,774 votes). - [Incumbency factor] Hobbs is now an incumbent governor seeking re-election, which historically confers an advantage; no incumbent AZ governor seeking re-election has lost since the 1980s-era turbulence (Evan Mecham was removed from office before completing a term, not defeated in a re-election bid). - [Trump effect] This will be one of five Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2026 in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2024 presidential election , giving Republicans a nominal partisan-lean argument, though this has not translated into gubernatorial polling leads. - [Candidate quality concern] Cook's analysis flagged a possible GOP vulnerability: "With an environment that's favoring Democrats and a potentially polarizing and deeply conservative nominee in Rep. Andy Biggs, a 2020 election denier, this is a contest Republicans sound less optimistic about." - [National environment] Cook's broader 2026 governor map (Oct 1, 2026) shows the nation's governorships nearly evenly split between the two parties (26 Republicans, 24 Democrats as of January 2026), with Cook's consensus forecast projecting 23 D-held/22 R-held plus 5 toss-ups, while prediction markets collectively implied 26 D-held/22 R-held/2 toss-up , consistent with a mild pro-Democrat midterm environment nationally. BOTTOM LINE: The reference class (incumbent governor, narrow 2022 win, state trending Republican at presidential level but Democratic at statewide/gubernatorial level in 3 of last 5 cycles) combined with a consistent and lengthening polling lead for the Democratic incumbent and a steady drift in nonpartisan ratings from "Toss Up" to "Lean D"/"Solid D" over the cycle all point toward continuity (Democratic hold) rather than a Republican flip; base rates and expert trackers have moved decisively away from the Republican outcome as the race has developed. NOT FOUND: Exact current RealClearPolitics or 538-style polling average for the Hobbs-Biggs matchup within the final 30 days (most recent fetched aggregates run through May 2026); no authoritative numeric "win probability" from Cook/Sabato (they use qualitative ratings, not percentages); could not access the full yourvalley.net Kalshi article directly (only via search snippet).

YES means: Republican nominee Andy Biggs is declared the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election by AP, Fox News, and NBC (or, failing a joint call, is certified the winner), defeating Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs. - [2026-09-29] As of Tuesday, Sept. 29, prediction market Kalshi gave Rep. Andy Biggs a 13 percent chance of beating Gov. Katie Hobbs in the 2026 gubernatorial race — framing the scale of the comeback needed, but also showing markets, not just polls, as the relevant benchmark Biggs must beat. - [2026-10-01] Recent polling points in the same direction, but with far less certainty. Five of the most recent public surveys reviewed by Cronkite News all found Hobbs ahead of Biggs, though her lead ranged from 15 percentage points to a statistical tie — the "statistical tie" datapoint is the single strongest evidence the race is tighter than aggregator averages suggest. - [2026-10-01] None were conducted after Aug. 19 and since then the Biggs campaign has announced a $1.75 million advertising buy coordinated with the Arizona Republican Party — meaning all public polling the forecaster can see predates Biggs's largest paid-media push, leaving room for undetected movement. - [2026-10-01] Two of the state's most prominent pollsters expect tightening: Noble also expects the race to narrow by Election Day. "They'll bring it down into single digits, but will it be enough? That's the question," he said. - [2026-10-01] HighGround's own pollster conceded late consolidation is plausible even while calling an outright win unlikely: As Election Day nears, Bentz said he expects Republicans to consolidate behind Biggs and the margin to shrink. - [2026-09-22] A Republican-led Arizona Senate probe is actively keeping a corruption narrative alive against Hobbs: Former Arizona Supreme Court Justice Andrew Gould has been named special counsel in the state Senate's investigation of Attorney General Kris Mayes' decision not to prosecute Gov. Katie Hobbs over allegations of a pay-to-play scheme. - [2026-09-17] That investigation is issuing subpoenas just weeks before Election Day: Following these contributions, Hoffman said Sunshine received per-child rate increases (a 56% hike), making them the highest-paid group home provider in Arizona... "What we have seen has every appearance of a pay-to-play corruption scandal at the highest levels of our state government." - [2026-09-01] Biggs is actively weaponizing the scandal on the trail and in paid ads even after AG clearance: The investigation has become a political flashpoint in the governor's race. Republican nominee Andy Biggs has made the probe a centerpiece of his campaign against Hobbs, running ads accusing her of awarding a lucrative state contract to a donor. - [2026-08-30] Hobbs has continued stonewalling transparency questions tied to the scandal, giving Biggs fresh material through October: Katie Hobbs has declined to answer questions about a legal fund revealed during the investigation into pay-for-play allegations involving Sunshine Residential, a state contractor... Katie Hobbs says she will not reveal who has donated to a legal fund that received contributions from a state contractor that later got a rate hike. - [2022 baseline, cited in Cronkite] The precedent for a late, narrow outcome in this exact matchup type is real: Four years ago, Hobbs defeated GOP nominee Kari Lake by 17,117 votes – less than 1 percentage point. - [2026-10-01] Even a market-skeptical academic only expects Biggs to need a shift of roughly half the current polling gap, not an implausible swing: Dartmouth College economics professor Eric Zitzewitz said assuming Hobbs has maintained at least a 6-7 point lead in the polls, the current Kalshi odds regarding the race appear to be accurate. — implying that if the Biggs ad blitz and corruption narrative cut the lead meaningfully below 6-7 points, the "accurate" framing breaks down and odds should shift toward him. - [2026-10-01] Structural persuadable-voter opening remains large: Biggs, meanwhile, remains closely associated with President Donald Trump, he said. That distinction matters in Arizona, where voters unaffiliated with either party outnumber registered Democrats and are almost as numerous as registered Republicans. — a late GOP-base consolidation plus an independent-turnout surge (his most plausible path) could compress the single-digit gap further than public, slightly-stale polls show. BOTTOM LINE: The single most likely path to YES is a replay of 2022's sub-1-point finish: Biggs's unseen post-Aug.19 ad spending, a live Republican-driven "pay-to-play" narrative with ongoing Senate subpoenas, and pollster-acknowledged Republican base consolidation combine to compress Hobbs's lead from double digits into "single digits" or less, and then a disproportionate Election Day/GOP-leaning vote (contra early-voting Democrats) flips a close race — a low-probability but not far-fetched scenario explicitly floated by Arizona's own pollsters. NOT FOUND: No public poll conducted after Aug. 19, 2026 was located, so the effect of Biggs's $1.75M ad buy, the Oct. 6 debate, and the Senate subpoenas on actual voter sentiment is unconfirmed; no results yet from the Oct. 6 Clean Elections debate itself.

YES means: Andy Biggs (or any Republican nominee) wins the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election and the race is called for him by AP, Fox News, and NBC (or certified as such) before the market's close. - [2026-10-01] HighGround's senior VP Paul Bentz told Cronkite News that for "Republicans to consolidate behind Biggs and the margin to shrink" , but when asked whether Biggs could still win he said the candidate would need "a miracle" — the clearest on-record statement that insiders who study the data consider a Republican win essentially foreclosed absent a shock. (https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2026/10/01/andy-biggs-katie-hobbs-arizona-polls-kalshi/) - [2026-10-01] Even Hobbs's own pollster-adjacent framing concedes uncertainty, but the Hobbs campaign's quoted comms director said only that "this race will be close," not that Biggs is actually ahead anywhere — i.e., the campaign most incentivized to raise alarm about complacency still did not claim a shrinking deficit beyond "close." (https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2026/10/01/andy-biggs-katie-hobbs-arizona-polls-kalshi/) - [2026-09-29] Prediction markets (Kalshi, cited alongside Polymarket) priced a Biggs win at just 13%, and Kalshi's historical performance "is pretty limited so far" per an outside professor, meaning the NO case does not need to rely on markets being perfectly calibrated — even heavy skepticism of the 13% figure leaves Biggs a clear underdog. (https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2026/10/01/andy-biggs-katie-hobbs-arizona-polls-kalshi/) - [2026-10-01] All five of the most recent public polls reviewed by Cronkite News, none newer than Aug. 19, placed Hobbs ahead by anywhere from a "statistical tie" to 15 points — meaning the floor case for a Biggs comeback (a true tied race) has already been observed in-sample without being the central tendency. (https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2026/10/01/andy-biggs-katie-hobbs-arizona-polls-kalshi/) - [2026-10-05 reference, event 2022] Hobbs already survived the single most adverse scenario for a Democratic AZ gubernatorial nominee — a MAGA-aligned "election denier" opponent (Kari Lake) in a worse genuinely-toss-up environment — winning by "50.32% of the vote" ; Biggs, also Trump-aligned and a 2020 election objector, has not shown polling strength exceeding Lake's final numbers, undercutting the case that 2026 GOP turnout dynamics are meaningfully stronger than 2022's near-miss. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arizona_elections) - [2024-11-12] The same "Trump-aligned election denier" archetype failed again in AZ just two years later: Kari Lake lost the 2024 Senate race to Ruben Gallego, showing Arizona's general-election rejection of this candidate profile is not a one-off but a repeated pattern across multiple statewide cycles. (https://www.npr.org/2024/11/12/g-s1-33813/arizona-senate-gallego-lake) - [2026-09-29/10-01] Biggs's campaign responded to the Aug. 19 polling gap by announcing only a $1.75 million ad buy coordinated with the state GOP — a relatively modest sum against an incumbent who has already banked a cash/ad advantage, suggesting the closing paid-media push is unlikely by itself to erase a double-digit gap. (https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2026/10/01/andy-biggs-katie-hobbs-arizona-polls-kalshi/) - [2026 (date unclear, pre-primary)] Trump's own framing at the April 17 Phoenix rally undercuts GOP overconfidence: he told the crowd "presidents almost always lose the midterms" and that Republicans "better win," an implicit acknowledgment from the party's own standard-bearer that a Biggs defeat is a live possibility in an unfavorable midterm climate. (https://ktar.com/arizona-politics-news/election/trump-republican-midterms) - [2026-10-02] Biggs's own campaign press materials, rather than touting momentum or a closing race, focused that week on attacking Hobbs for skipping debates ("Katie Hobbs Refuses To Debate and Defend Her Terrible Record") — a message strategy typically used by a trailing campaign trying to generate free media rather than one citing favorable internal numbers. (https://biggsforarizona.com/) - [2026 cycle, multiple dates] Noble Predictive Insights' own tracking poll series (Dec. 2025 → Feb. → May → Aug. 2026) never once showed Biggs ahead of or tied with Hobbs in a head-to-head matchup — the Democratic lead has been persistent across nine months of the same house's methodology, not a late-breaking artifact of any single poll. (https://ktar.com/arizona-politics-news/election/arizona-governor-race-poll, https://www.fox10phoenix.com/election/2026-election-new-poll-shows-hobbs-leading-biggs-arizona-governors-race) - [2026-10-01] Early voting in Arizona begins Oct. 7, and Dartmouth economist Eric Zitzewitz noted that assuming Hobbs has held a 6-7 point lead, "the odds seem roughly right to me" for the heavy Hobbs favorite pricing — meaning the calendar itself is working against a comeback since a large share of AZ voters traditionally cast early/mail ballots well before Nov. 3, locking in current sentiment. (https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2026/10/01/andy-biggs-katie-hobbs-arizona-polls-kalshi/) BOTTOM LINE: The NO case (Republicans fail to win) rests on an unbroken, nine-month polling record with no Biggs lead in any public survey, an outside-expert consensus that a comeback would require "a miracle," Arizona's documented repeated rejection of Trump-aligned/election-denier Republican nominees statewide in 2022 and 2024, and a compressed timeline — early voting starting Oct. 7 — that locks in the current Hobbs advantage before Biggs's modest ad spending can plausibly close a double-digit gap. NOT FOUND: No polling conducted after Aug. 19, 2026 was located (a ~7-week polling blackout into the final stretch); the outcome/participation details of the Oct. 1 and Oct. 6 debates (whether Hobbs appeared in any form) were not confirmed; no post-debate or early-October internal/public poll numbers were found.