Will any Republican member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment before 2027?

- [2025-12-10] Rep. Al Green (D-TX) introduced H.Res.939 impeaching Trump; on 2025-12-11 the House voted 237-140 (47 present) to table it — no Republican is recorded breaking from the party line on the underlying measure (the motion to table passed with GOP support). Mr. Scalise moved to table the measure, and on motion to table the measure, the vote was agreed to by the Yeas and Nays: 237 - 140, 47 Present. - [2026-07-16] Rep. Al Green again delivered remarks on the House floor declaring that President Donald J. Trump will face articles of impeachment — a Democrat, not a Republican. - [2026-08-24] Rep. Al Green introduced a further resolution, H.Res.1486, impeaching Trump introduced by Rep. Al Green [D-TX9] on August 24, 2026 . - [2026-09-15] The House voted to table H.Res.1486: Republicans voted 213 YEA (to table)/0 NAY/1 Present. H RES 1486 – Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanors. On motion to table Agreed to by the Yeas and Nays: 232 – 147, 47 Present. Republican Votes: YEA 213; NAY 0; 1. The lone Republican non-"yea" vote was Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), who did not vote unanimously to table the resolution; Rep. Thomas Massie, Kentucky Republican, voted "present" on the measure. A "present" vote is not an explicit, unambiguous pro-impeachment statement and would not satisfy the resolution criteria's bar for a clear endorsement. - [2026-09-15/16] Hours before that vote, Massie instead introduced articles of impeachment Tuesday against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, accusing him of defying Congress during the Iran war, suppressing free speech and other offenses — these are articles against Hegseth, not Trump, so they do not satisfy this market's criteria. - [2026-09-15] Analysts noted the dual drama: Massie's push to impeach Hegseth, like the Democratic push to impeach Trump, is doomed to fail, yet both votes have created headaches for their respective party leaders , underscoring that Massie's action was framed as cabinet-focused, not a call to impeach Trump himself. - [2026-09-24] Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN) introduced a new 26-article impeachment resolution against Trump; "Trump is clearly the most impeachable President our country has ever endured. His continued presence in office is a danger to our democracy. That the sycophantic Republican majority in Congress is derelict in its duty does not mean that I must abandon my responsibilities," Cohen said in a statement. No Republican co-sponsors were reported. - [2026-09-23 to 09-24] Analysis site review of 2026 filings found impeachment efforts driven entirely by Democrats (Green, Larson, Cohen), with Republicans characterized only as obstacles: A successful House impeachment requires a simple House majority; conviction and removal would then require a two-thirds Senate majority—both outcomes are tightly bound to which party controls each chamber, and several outlets note that Republican majorities in 2026 make conviction unlikely absent major defections . - [2026-10-02] A Trump-world narrative piece on the Massie/Hegseth episode speculated about future GOP defections post-midterms: Frey, in his article, doesn't rule out the possibility of other Republicans joining Democrats in supporting articles of impeachment against Trump or members of his Cabinet in 2027 should Democrats flip the House — explicitly framed as a 2027 (post-deadline) possibility, and speculative, not a current GOP call. - [2026-10-03/04] Trump continued campaigning on the impeachment threat ("if we don't win, they'll end up impeaching me"), and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R) has only discussed the hypothetical of a Democratic-controlled House impeaching Trump, not endorsed impeachment himself: In October, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson told Fox News that Democrats "would impeach Trump" if given the opportunity following the midterms; "Imagine if the Democrats took over the House, they'd impeach him." - [2026-10-04] On NBC's Meet the Press, discussion centered on a hypothetical Democratic-led third impeachment if Democrats retake the House in the midterms one of the biggest debates within the Democrat Party right now: If Democrats do in fact win back the House, some, as you know, are calling to impeach President Trump for a third time. No Republican voice in this segment called for impeachment. - Historical precedent exists from Trump's first term — Rep. Justin Amash (I/R-MI) became the first Republican to call for President Trump's impeachment in 2019 — but this predates the current question's window (issuance in Dec 2025) and would not count. BOTTOM LINE: As of 2026-10-05, every documented impeachment push against Trump in the 119th Congress (Dec 2025, Jul 2026, Sep 2026) has been led solely by Democrats, and Republicans have voted near-unanimously to table these efforts; the one GOP break — Massie's "present" vote on Sept 15, 2026 — does not meet the market's "clear, unambiguous" standard, and Massie instead channeled his dissent into impeaching Hegseth, not Trump. No current Republican member has made an explicit, qualifying call for Trump's impeachment. NOT FOUND: No instance located of any sitting Republican member of Congress explicitly stating support for Trump's impeachment, introducing/co-sponsoring Trump impeachment articles, or voting against tabling a Trump impeachment resolution between the market's opening (2025-12-03) and 2026-10-05.

- [2019-01] Reference class starting point: Justin Amash became the first Republican congressman to call for the impeachment of Donald Trump during the first term; he left the GOP for the Libertarian Party shortly after, meaning no sitting Republican supported impeachment through the entire first floor vote in Dec 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_Amash - [2021-01-13] The only historical instance of sitting Republicans actually voting for Trump's impeachment came after an extraordinary trigger — the Jan. 6 Capitol attack — when Congressman Tom Rice was one of 10 Republicans in the US House of Representatives who voted in favour of impeaching Trump on January 13 for "incitement of insurrection" . This shows the base rate for GOP defection is not zero, but historically requires a singular, high-visibility catalytic event. https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2021/1/30/republican-lawmaker-censured-by-party-for-voting-to-impeach-trump - [2026-10-05] Of those 10, only two remained in Congress as of late 2025; one of them (Newhouse) then announced retirement, and the others were Reps. Liz Cheney of Wyoming; Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio; Jaime Herrera-Beutler of Washington; John Katko of New York; Adam Kinzinger of Illinois; Peter Meijer of Michigan; Tom Rice of South Carolina, and Fred Upton of Michigan. The latter eight have since left Congress — the cohort willing to defect has been politically eliminated via primaries. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/rep-dan-newhouse-one-last-remaining-house-republicans-voted-impeach-tr-rcna249676 - [2026-09-15/16] In the current Congress, repeated floor tests have occurred: Rep. Al Green has forced his eighth attempt to bring impeachment of President Trump to the House floor, and his sixth time leading such an effort — spanning both of Trump's presidencies , and in the most recent vote Eighteen Democrats joined nearly all Republicans in voting to table the resolution — i.e., essentially zero Republican defections in the base rate sample for this term. https://www.nation.com.pk/16-Sep-2026/us-house-votes-al-green-s-impeachment-effort-trump - [2026-09-15] The most prominent GOP dissident this term, Thomas Massie, chose to impeach Cabinet Secretary Hegseth rather than Trump himself, with reporting noting Massie's push to impeach Hegseth, like the Democratic push to impeach Trump, is doomed to fail — illustrating that even the most anti-Trump Republican stopped short of calling for Trump's own impeachment. https://www.scrippsnews.com/us-news/thomas-massie-pushes-surprise-impeachment-vote-of-pete-hegseth - [2026-09-xx] Commentary following Massie's move speculated about the future but found no current GOP support for impeaching Trump, only noting Frey "doesn't rule out the possibility of other Republicans joining Democrats in supporting articles of impeachment against Trump or members of his Cabinet in 2027 should Democrats flip the House" — i.e., experts treat it as a 2027-and-beyond contingency, not a current-term base rate. https://www.alternet.org/trump-hegseth-impeachment-massie/ - [2026-06] Running counter to any impeachment momentum, House Republicans have instead pursued resolutions to expunge Trump's prior impeachments; Speaker Mike Johnson dubbed it "a priority" , reflecting strong party-wide motivation to erase rather than add to Trump's impeachment record. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_expungements_of_the_impeachments_of_Donald_Trump - [2026-01-06] Trump himself has flagged impeachment risk is tied to the 2026 midterms, telling House Republicans "You gotta win the midterms 'cause, if we don't win the midterms, it's just gonna be - I mean, they'll find a reason to impeach me," Trump said at a retreat for House Republican lawmakers in Washington. "I'll get impeached." This framing is about Democratic-led impeachment contingent on a future House majority, not a current Republican call. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-house-republicans-dont-win-163958688.html - [2026-09-07] Even senior House GOP figures like Jim Jordan treat impeachment purely as a Democratic future threat, predicting Democrats will impeach President Trump for a third time between his two presidencies if they take control of the House after the November midterm elections — framing it as an opposition action, not something any Republican would join. https://thehill.com/homenews/house/6113638-jim-jordan-trump-impeachment-prediction/ - [2026-08-30] Even on the Democratic side, leadership is cautious: Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., said Sunday that Democrats should not prioritize impeaching President Donald Trump if they win control of the House in the upcoming midterm elections , suggesting the environment even post-midterm may not produce a rapid impeachment push that could draw a GOP defector. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/jim-clyburn-impeaching-trump-shouldnt-democrats-priority-win-house-rcna595118 BOTTOM LINE: The only historical precedent for a sitting Republican calling for/voting to impeach Trump required an extraordinary, singular catalytic event (Jan. 6, 2021) and has not recurred despite roughly eight Democratic-led impeachment pushes since January 2025, all of which have been tabled with near-unanimous Republican opposition and no public GOP calls for impeachment; the base rate therefore strongly favors "No," with the main tail risk being an unforeseen scandal severe enough to replicate a Jan.-6-style break, something not currently visible in the data. NOT FOUND: No poll, prediction-market aggregator, or expert quantitative forecast specifically estimating the probability that a Republican will call for Trump's impeachment before 2027 was found; also no instance of any currently-serving Republican member explicitly calling for Trump's impeachment (as opposed to a Cabinet official) in 2025-2026.

YES means: at least one sitting Republican member of Congress makes a clear, unambiguous, current statement supporting Trump's impeachment (or introduces/co-sponsors/votes against tabling Trump impeachment articles) between 2025-12-03 and 2027-01-01. - [2026-04-07/10] "Sickeningly evil. Donald Trump must be impeached. When will it be enough for my Republican colleagues to grow spines and remove him from office?" — this explicit, textbook-qualifying statement was made by Marjorie Taylor Greene, but Fox5 Atlanta's report confirms she is described as "Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene" at the time of the remark, meaning it came after her Jan. 5, 2026 resignation and would not count under the "member of Congress" requirement — yet it proves the rhetorical bar is being cleared by GOP-aligned figures the moment they leave the conformity pressures of sitting office. https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/marjorie-taylor-greene-calls-trumps-removal-cites-recent-actions - [2026-09-15] Sitting Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) demonstrated he is willing to break with the party on impeachment mechanics by introducing articles against Hegseth and casting the lone non-"yea" vote (present) on tabling Al Green's Trump impeachment resolution, with reporting noting this was "perhaps the most striking instance yet of a member of President Donald Trump's own party publicly condemning one of his top Cabinet officials" — showing the path to a Trump-specific defection is only one more step away from where Massie already stands. https://time.com/article/2026/09/15/massie-hegseth-impeachment-iran/ - [2026-09-15] Massie's own stated rationale— he introduced the articles of impeachment to place a "marker" in history on what he said was both President Donald Trump's and Hegseth's "illegal" conduct —explicitly names Trump's conduct as impeachable even while the formal articles targeted Hegseth, indicating his substantive objection already extends to Trump personally. https://abcnews.com/Politics/rep-thomas-massie-forcing-vote-pete-hegseths-impeachment/story?id=136470894 - [2026-09-05] Valadao, one of only two sitting House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021 and is one of two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot , is still in office and has a documented record of breaking with Trump on immigration enforcement in mid-2026, showing an established independent streak that could re-activate under pressure. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/california-republican-pushes-back-against-170505979.html - [2026-09-05] However, when directly asked about his 2021 impeachment vote amid a competitive re-election fight, Valadao equivocated rather than renewing or disavowing it: he demurred when asked about his impeachment vote in 2021, saying "I'll let history decide on how to interpret anything I've done. I've got nothing more to add to that." — showing caution, not momentum, toward a fresh qualifying statement. https://www.local10.com/news/politics/2026/09/05/after-years-of-defying-the-odds-californias-david-valadao-faces-new-test-as-latinos-turn-on-trump/ - [2026-09-19] Analysts noted Massie "demonstrated the potential power of impeachment" via the Hegseth measure, and commentary observed that after his move, "House GOP leaders — who already were sending the House home two weeks early for campaign season — decided to throw in the towel and leave even sooner rather than allow the vote" , indicating leadership fears defections could spread if forced to a floor vote. https://www.ms.now/news/democrats-navigate-calls-impeachment - [2026-10-02] A Trump-world-adjacent analysis explicitly flagged that Thomas Massie of Kentucky demonstrated the potential power of impeachment when he introduced a resolution targeting Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth , with speculation (noted in prior reports) that this tactic could be repurposed against Trump directly if political conditions shift. - [2026-09-xx] Broader structural context: a WION explainer on the 2026 midterms noted "Even if Democrats take control of the House, they would need a sufficiently large Senate majority, or Republican senators willing to break with Trump, to reach the two-thirds threshold required for conviction" — meaning any serious post-midterm impeachment push by a Democratic House would create direct, sustained pressure on GOP senators to publicly state a position, raising the odds that at least one issues a qualifying statement, especially if new evidence (e.g., Epstein files) surfaces. - [2026-09-xx] That same piece noted Republican Sen. Thom Tillis already "calls on Trump to fire Pete Hegseth over his 'inept management' of military" , confirming at least one sitting GOP senator is willing to publicly demand consequences for the administration — a precedent one step short of, but adjacent to, an impeachment call. - [2026-10-04] Trump himself continues to treat the risk as live and GOP-relevant, telling supporters "Pretend I'm running please, just pretend because I am on the ballot. And if we don't win they'll end up impeaching me. These people, they have Trump Derangement Syndrome. But I've become very good at beating them on impeachment" — this framing, repeated on the trail, keeps the question salient and could invite a GOP primary-loser or retiring member (with nothing left to lose, as Massie and Greene both demonstrate) to break ranks before Jan. 1, 2027. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES pathway is not a fresh scandal but the "exiting-member" pattern already twice observed this cycle (Greene post-resignation, Massie post-primary-loss) — members who no longer fear a primary are willing to use explicit impeachment language; Massie, still serving through January 2027, already frames Trump's conduct as "illegal" and has shown a template (introducing articles) he could redirect at Trump himself, meaning a qualifying statement from a sitting Republican remains a live, if still unconfirmed, possibility before the deadline. NOT FOUND: No sitting Republican member of Congress has yet made an explicit, unambiguous, current call for Trump's own impeachment (Greene's qualifying statement came after she left office); no evidence Massie, Valadao, or any other sitting GOP member has used the word "impeach" specifically about Trump (as opposed to Hegseth) since the market opened.

YES means: at least one sitting Republican member of Congress makes an explicit, unambiguous, current statement supporting Trump's impeachment (or introduces/co-sponsors/votes against tabling actual articles of impeachment against Trump), at any point before 2027-01-01. - [2026-09-15] On the only floor test of GOP unity this term, the motion to table Al Green's H.Res.1486 passed with Eighteen Democrats joined 213 Republicans and one independent in voting to table the measure , meaning Republicans were effectively unanimous (213 of 214 recorded) in opposing the impeachment articles, with the lone deviation (Massie) a "present" vote, not a "nay." - [2026-09-15] Contemporaneous reporting on the same vote found that House Democratic leadership itself hedged rather than fully embracing impeachment: Ahead of the vote, House Democratic leaders urged members to vote "present," an option that avoids a yes-or-no vote. If even Democratic leaders won't make an unambiguous institutional endorsement, the bar for an explicit GOP endorsement is set even higher. - [2026-09-15/16] Massie's parallel action channeled his dissent entirely into the Cabinet, not the President: he filed eight articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth... accuses the defense secretary of helping prosecute an unauthorized war in Iran, weakening civilian casualty protections, retaliating against a U.S. senator and authorizing military operations in Venezuela and Yemen without proper legal authority — a structurally different, non-qualifying target under this market's resolution criteria. - [2026-10-01] Analysis published after the Massie move explicitly frames any further GOP movement on Trump's impeachment as contingent on 2027, not before: Democrats "stumbled" onto the Cabinet-impeachment strategy thanks to Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky... introduced articles of impeachment against Hegseth last month. This is a "highly underrated" strategy for forcing accountability on the administration, Massie said — his own framing is about Cabinet accountability, never Trump himself. - [2026-10-03] Massie himself will be gone from the chamber before any further action matters much, since Massie, having lost the primary, will be leaving Congress in early January 2027 , meaning the single most anti-Trump Republican voice exits Congress essentially at the market's close, reducing the population of plausible GOP defectors to near zero for the remainder of this window. - [2026-10-03] Leadership response to Massie's maneuver was to shut down the floor rather than entertain impeachment talk: Speaker Mike Johnson subsequently sent the House into an early recess, delaying consideration of Massie's resolution until after the midterms , and Johnson publicly dismissed the impeachment effort as a "stunt." This shows the Speaker actively suppressing any impeachment-adjacent floor action rather than any Republican embracing it. - [2026-04/2026-06] Running in the opposite direction of a GOP "Yes," House Republicans have spent 2026 pushing to erase, not add to, Trump's impeachment record: Rep. Darrell Issa's H.Res.1211 was introduced 04/23/2026... Expunging the December 18, 2019, and January 13, 2021, Impeachments of President Donald Trump , and Speaker Johnson in 2026, Trump and his allies renewed efforts to have his impeachments declared expunged... Johnson dubbed it "a priority" — a strong institutional signal of GOP consensus moving away from, not toward, impeachment. - [2026-10-05] Base-rate check: of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in Jan. 2021 (the only precedent for GOP defection, and that required the Jan. 6 catalyst), only Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif., could be the only remaining House Republican who voted in favor of Trump's impeachment in 2021... The latter eight have since left Congress (Newhouse announced retirement), leaving effectively no sitting Republican with a track record of such a break. - [2026-10-04/05] Senior Republicans continue to frame impeachment purely as a future Democratic-only threat contingent on losing the midterms, not something any Republican would join: Speaker Johnson told Fox News Democrats "would impeach Trump" if they retook the House, and Jim Jordan separately predicted Democrats would impeach Trump a third time if they win in November — both treating it strictly as an opposition-party action. - [2026-09-29] Even Democratic-side commentary (Ro Khanna on NBC) discussed a "third Trump impeachment" purely as a prospective post-midterm Democratic initiative contingent on retaking the House in the Nov. 3 elections, with no Republican voice entering the conversation as a potential co-sponsor or supporter. BOTTOM LINE: Every floor test in the 119th Congress through October 2026 shows near-unanimous (213/214) Republican opposition to tabling-reversal, the one "present" vote does not meet the market's explicit-statement bar, the most likely defector (Massie) channeled dissent into Cabinet impeachment and exits Congress by January 2027, and institutional GOP energy is actively running toward expunging past impeachments rather than enabling a new one — all of which argue strongly for NO absent an unforeseen scandal-level catalyst before the Jan. 1, 2027 deadline. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any sitting Republican, including Massie, making an unambiguous statement of personal support for Trump's own impeachment (as opposed to Hegseth's) at any point in the market window; no scheduled post-midterm floor action on a Trump impeachment resolution confirmed before 2027.