Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years become law before Jan 1, 2027? — FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)

- [2026-04-17] Section 702's extension deadline was extended via a 10-day clean patch to April 30, 2026 after the House rejected an 18-month clean extension and a 5-year reform bill; with no consensus as of April 17, Congress passed an extension that keeps Section 702 in place until April 30, 2026, while negotiations continue on potential revisions to the law. (https://www.wileyconnect.com/congress-again-approaches-deadline-for-extending-fisa-702-authorities-creating-uncertainty-for-communications-providers) - [2026-04-30] The House passed on a vote of 261-111 a 45-day extension of the surveillance program, and the Senate unanimously passed the measure, sending it to President Trump , pushing the deadline to June 12, 2026. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/fisa-section-702-congress-extension.html) - [2026-04-29] The House voted 235-191 to extend 702 authority for three years without a warrant requirement , but Senate Majority Leader Thune said a companion CBDC ban was "not happening," threatening Senate passage ; the bill stalled in the Senate. (https://www.nextgov.com/policy/2026/04/house-passes-3-year-fisa-702-extension/413223/) - [2026-06-05] A GOP leadership reauthorization proposal failed on a Senate vote, coinciding with the appointment of Bill Pulte as Acting Director of National Intelligence , per Brennan Center tracking. (https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/section-702-foreign-intelligence-surveillance-act-fisa-2026-resource-page) - [2026-06-11] The House failed to pass H.R. 9238, a short three-week clean extension (through July 2); the motion to suspend the rules and pass failed, status "Failed," 198 yea–218 nay , with Republicans voting 190-19 in favor and Democrats voting 199-7 against . (https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2026221?Page=2 ; https://legis1.com/news/fisa-section-702-expires-surveillance-authority) - [2026-06-12] Section 702's statutory authority lapsed at midnight as no extension was enacted in time; the authority was set to expire Friday, June 12, 2026, at midnight, as Congress had been kicking the ball down the road for months hoping for consensus on a longer reauthorization , and Senate Democrats refused to move forward with their version of the bill while the House refused to approve even a short-term renewal . (https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2026/06/victory-702-has-expired) - [2026-06-09] Even with the statutory lapse, operational surveillance was expected to continue because Section 702 surveillance operates under yearlong certifications approved by the FISA Court, and these certifications/directives remain valid (grandfathered) until their expiration date even if the underlying statute expires . (https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/section-702-foreign-intelligence-surveillance-act) - [2026-06-15/2026-09-17] Confirmed that the government will continue to perform foreign surveillance under Section 702 regardless of statute expiration because the FISC has already recertified Section 702 surveillance through March 2027, and that certification remains operational even after the statute sunsets . (https://epic.org/fisa-section-702-almost-certain-to-expire-after-house-votes-against-extension-epic-continues-to-urge-reforms/) - [2026-09-17] Brennan Center published a one-pager "Section 702 Surveillance Authority Will Not Lapse if Reauthorized by March 2027," describing itself as "A one-pager from the Brennan Center for Justice debunking the claim that Congress must renew Section 702 by November 2026 to avoid a lapse in surveillance authority," indicating lawmakers (and advocates) still regard March 2027 as the real operational deadline rather than a hard end-of-2026 deadline. (https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/section-702-surveillance-authority-will-not-lapse-if-reauthorized-march) - [2026-09-21] A new bill, H.R. 9238-type text (per fastdemocracy tracker metadata) or similar Title VII extension vehicle continues to be tracked in Congress, but no record found of a vote since June 2026; Title VII of FISA addresses surveillance directed at targets outside the U.S., including Section 702, and information about U.S. persons may incidentally be acquired and later queried remains the live policy dispute blocking any deal. (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/9238) - [2026-07-29] A coalition of advocacy groups continued pressing Congress for safeguards regardless of DNI leadership, indicating the reauthorization fight remained unresolved through midsummer: "Coalition of Over Two Dozen Organizations Urges Congress to Enact Meaningful Section 702 Safeguards Regardless of Who Serves as Director of National Intelligence" (July 29, 2026) . (https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/section-702-foreign-intelligence-surveillance-act-fisa-2026-resource-page) - [2026-10-05 as of today] No subsequent House/Senate floor vote, passage, or presidential signature on any Section 702 reauthorization bill (of any duration) has been found after the June 11, 2026 failed vote; the statute remains lapsed as a matter of law while surveillance continues under FISC certifications through March 2027. BOTTOM LINE: As of today, Section 702's underlying statute has lapsed since June 12, 2026 after multiple short-term patches and a failed three-week extension; Congress has not passed any reauthorization since, and commentators now frame March 2027 (not end-2026) as the real operational deadline, reducing legislative urgency. No evidence exists of a pending floor vote or law enacting a clean two-year reauthorization matching the RISAA model required for this market to resolve Yes before January 1, 2027. NOT FOUND: Any scheduled House/Senate floor vote on Section 702 reauthorization after June 11, 2026; any text of a bill proposing exactly a two-year reauthorization (matching RISAA's model) introduced or advancing in September/October 2026; any statement from congressional leadership (Johnson, Thune, Jeffries, Schumer) on a timeline for a renewed vote before year-end 2026.

- [2026-04-29] The House passed S. 1318 reauthorizing Section 702 for **three years** (not two) by a vote of 235-191; this is the only chamber-passed, full-term reauthorization bill so far in the current cycle. Speaker Mike Johnson pressured members to clear a procedural vote, after which the House voted 235–191 to reauthorize for three years FISA's Title VII, which includes the Section 702 mass electronic surveillance program, with no probable-cause warrant requirement or outside oversight added. Source: https://www.cato.org/blog/house-votes-continue-subverting-fourth-amendment - [2026-04-30] The Senate rejected that House 3-year bill because of an unrelated rider; the Senate had rejected the bipartisan House proposal to reauthorize the program for three years because it included unrelated language banning a Federal Reserve central bank digital currency, and senators from both parties instead pivoted to a short-term solution, punting broader negotiations to mid-May . Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/fisa-section-702-congress-extension.html - [2026-06-12] Section 702 statutorily lapsed for the first time since its 2008 creation after the House rejected a further short-term patch; FISA Section 702 lapsed June 12, 2026 after the House rejected an extension 198 to 218, with the authority reaching its statutory sunset at midnight after the Senate deadlocked . Source: https://www.recordinglaw.com/news/fisa-section-702-surveillance-lapse/ - [2026-06-12] Despite the lapse, operational collection continues because of pre-existing FISC certifications; the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court renewed the program's annual certifications in March 2026, and those certifications run through approximately March 2027 , which removes much of the emergency pressure to legislate quickly. Source: https://stateofsurveillance.org/news/fisa-702-march-2027-fisa-court-certification-loophole-sunset-deadline-2026/ - [2026-09-17] As of mid-September 2026, no reauthorization has passed; the Brennan Center's latest tracker entry is titled "Section 702 Surveillance Authority Will Not Lapse if Reauthorized by March 2027" , framing March 2027 (not year-end 2026) as the operative practical deadline. Source: https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/section-702-foreign-intelligence-surveillance-act-fisa-2026-resource-page - [Historical base rate] Section 702 has been reauthorized multiple times since 2008, and durations have varied widely: Congress reauthorized the expiring FISA provisions without changes in December 2012, extending Section 702's expiration date to December 31, 2017 (5-year term), and on January 19, 2018, Congress enacted the FISA Amendments Reauthorization Act of 2017 reauthorizing Section 702 through 2023 (6-year term). Only the most recent reauthorization used a 2-year term. - [2024 precedent] The two-year sunset included in RISAA represents the shortest extension ever included in a congressional renewal , chosen specifically because previous reauthorization cycles had exceeded five years, but Speaker Johnson shortened the window to two years to secure more votes for RISAA . This suggests 2-year terms are a deliberate but unusual vote-counting tactic, not the default outcome. - [Current proposals] Multiple competing bills are in play with no consensus on duration: the House-passed bill was 3 years, while Senate alternatives include the Government Surveillance Reform Act of 2026 (GSRA), the Security and Freedom Enhancement Act of 2026 (SAFE Act), and the Protect Liberty and End Warrantless Surveillance Act of 2026 (Protect Liberty Act) , none confirmed as a 2-year "clean" reauthorization matching the question's narrow criterion. - [2018 precedent on resolution timing] The only prior full lapse was brief: Section 702 lapsed on December 31, 2017 after the House's initial reauthorization bill stalled in the Senate, and the 19-day gap closed on January 19, 2018, when President Trump signed the FISA Amendments Reauthorization Act of 2017 — showing Congress has historically resolved lapses within weeks once sufficiently motivated, but current political divisions (warrant-requirement fight, CBDC rider fight, Pulte DNI controversy) appear more entrenched than in 2017-18. - [Political dynamics] Reauthorization appeared to have stalled in the Senate as of June 2026, with House Democrats' Judiciary ranking member stating it was never their goal to allow Section 702 to sunset and that Democrats had offered to work in good faith on a bill preserving authority while protecting privacy , indicating bipartisan appetite to eventually reauthorize, but disagreement over terms (warrant requirements, reforms) rather than duration has been the main sticking point. BOTTOM LINE: The base rate strongly favors eventual reauthorization of Section 702 (it has never been allowed to permanently lapse since 2008), but the specific "exactly two years" duration required by this market is historically the exception (only the 2024 RISAA used it), with the current 2026 cycle's only chamber-passed bill being a 3-year term and FISC certifications (valid to ~March 2027) reducing legislative urgency to act before Jan 1, 2027. NOT FOUND: No confirmed vote count, odds, or published forecast specifically estimating probability of a *2-year* (vs. 3-year or other duration) reauthorization passing before Jan 1, 2027; no evidence of a scheduled floor vote on a 2-year bill as of the most recent (Sept 2026) sources found.

YES means: Congress passes, and the President signs, a FISA Title VII reauthorization bill whose text extends Section 702 for exactly two years (matching the RISAA model), with enactment occurring before January 1, 2027. - [2026-06-09] Senate Majority Leader Thune publicly pressed Democrats to pass the bipartisan Cotton-Grassley "Foreign Intelligence Accountability Act," noting it had reauthorized FISA for three years, allowing the federal government to continue to collect foreign intelligence information while enacting key changes that protect Americans' privacy, including all six reforms passed by the House in April plus further accountability measures , showing a bicameral, White-House-endorsed vehicle already exists that could be shortened to two years in final negotiations to secure holdout votes, exactly as happened with RISAA in 2024. https://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/news-releases/icymi-rubio-and-hegseth-warn-of-devastating-fisa-expiration-call-on-democrats-to-support-bipartisan-cotton-grassley-reauthorization-bill - [2026-09-13] One of the Democrats' stated blocking objections has been removed: Democrats in both chambers had previously blocked the intelligence bill over President Trump's appointment of Bill Pulte as acting director of national intelligence; that particular objection eased when Jay Clayton was confirmed as director of national intelligence in late July 2026, but the Section 702 deadlock has outlasted the confirmation — removing one major sticking point raises the odds a deal can be struck before year-end. https://political.org/2026/09/13/senate-returns-to-a-packed-september-agenda-cryptos-clarity-act-farm-bill-and-reconciliation-3-0-all-hang-in-the-balance/ - [2026-09-13] Despite competing floor priorities, the article still listed FISA Section 702 | Authority lapsed; Senate reauthorisation still pending | Floor time; a successful Clarity Act vote could consume several days | House leaves for recess at the end of next week as an active item on the September legislative agenda, confirming leadership has not abandoned the effort. https://political.org/2026/09/13/senate-returns-to-a-packed-september-agenda-cryptos-clarity-act-farm-bill-and-reconciliation-3-0-all-hang-in-the-balance/ - [2026-09-25 approx.] A Hill newsletter on lame-duck priorities confirms reauthorizing FISA remains an unresolved GOP priority entering the lame-duck session, stating Congress has also been unable to reauthorize Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), the nation's warrantless spy power authority, which lapsed in June , which keeps it alive as a live legislative item rather than a dead issue. https://thehill.com/newsletters/the-movement/6102937-senate-gridlock-conservative-agenda/ - [2026-09-25 approx.] The same piece frames privacy-conservative demands as the main remaining obstacle rather than duration, noting Privacy-minded conservatives have been clamoring for months to get reforms that prevent accidental searches of Americans' data — including even attaching a CBDC ban — on any reauthorization, but even a negotiated bipartisan product to do so flopped in the Senate over a controversial temporary appointment to the top intelligence post — implying that with the DNI issue resolved, a reform package (potentially re-shortened to 2 years for Freedom Caucus buy-in) is the most plausible remaining deal structure. https://thehill.com/newsletters/the-movement/6102937-senate-gridlock-conservative-agenda/ - [2026-09-29 approx.] A separate lame-duck tracker lists FISA among several "must-pass" items still pending, noting Among the issues percolating for the lame duck session are funding the government (the current continuing resolution (CR) runs on out December 11th), reauthorizing the part of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) that has expired, Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) reauthorization, Ex-Im Bank reauthorization, Defense Production Act reauthorization, the multi-year farm bill, surface transportation reauthorization, and many more legislative items but cautions Most of those issues will be the subject of short-term punts, although some may find their way into the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) — giving a concrete vehicle (NDAA, historically a must-pass bill) onto which a 2-year 702 reauthorization could be attached before year-end. https://rogersreadout.substack.com/p/the-rogers-readout-eca - [2026-04-30] Multiple outlets confirm the House already demonstrated appetite for a clean, time-limited 702 extension mechanism under deadline pressure ( the House on Thursday passed a 45-day extension of the Foreign Intelligence Accountability Act (FISA) Section 702 by a vote of 261-111, sending the measure to President Donald Trump's desk for signature just hours before an earlier short-term extension would have expired at midnight; earlier Thursday, the Senate unanimously approved a 45-day extension of the surveillance program ), showing both chambers can move fast once a deadline forces action — a dynamic the lame-duck CR deadline (Dec. 11) and year-end close could replicate. https://abcnews.com/Politics/house-passes-3-year-fisa-reauthorization-face-challenges/story?id=132516696 - [2018 precedent, cited via 2026 retrospective] History shows Congress has resolved a full statutory lapse quickly once urgency peaked: The 19-day gap closed on January 19, 2018, when President Trump signed the FISA Amendments Reauthorization Act of 2017 , demonstrating that even after a lapse, enactment within weeks is achievable once leadership prioritizes it — a template the current GOP trifecta (House, Senate, White House) could replicate for a shortened 2-year bill in November-December 2026 if political will materializes. https://stateofsurveillance.org/news/fisa-702-march-2027-fisa-court-certification-loophole-sunset-deadline-2026/ - [2024 precedent, reaffirmed in 2026 reporting] The two-year term is a known, previously-successful vote-counting tool: Previous reauthorization cycles had exceeded five years, but House Speaker Mike Johnson shortened that window to two years to secure more votes for the Reforming Intelligence and Securing America Act (RISAA), which reauthorized Section 702 in late April 2024 — meaning if House holdouts again resist a 3-year Cotton-Grassley-style bill, leadership has a proven playbook (shorten to 2 years) to unlock passage, directly matching this market's required duration. BOTTOM LINE: The clearest YES path is a lame-duck or NDAA-attached deal in November–December 2026 in which GOP leadership once again shortens a pending multi-year compromise (the Cotton-Grassley 3-year bill or a House successor) down to a 2-year sunset — the same vote-counting tactic that produced RISAA in 2024 — now that the Pulte/DNI objection has been resolved by Jay Clayton's confirmation; must-pass vehicles (NDAA, year-end funding) and precedent for fast post-lapse action (19 days in 2018) make a pre-January 1 enactment plausible if political will re-emerges. NOT FOUND: Any confirmed text, markup, or floor schedule in September–October 2026 specifically proposing a two-year (rather than three-year) 702 term; any statement from Johnson, Thune, Cotton, or Grassley since June 2026 explicitly committing to shorten the bill's duration to two years; confirmation that FISA reauthorization will be included in the FY2027 NDAA or year-end CR text.

YES means: Congress passes, and the President signs, legislation reauthorizing FISA Title VII/Section 702 for exactly two years (matching the RISAA model), enacting it into law before January 1, 2027. - [2026-09-22] The Brennan Center's "one-pager" debunking a November 2026 deadline myth was last updated September 22, 2026 with no further update since, confirming a one-pager from the Brennan Center for Justice debunking the claim that Congress must renew Section 702 by November 2026 to avoid a lapse in surveillance authority — i.e., the advocacy community itself is actively telling Congress it does NOT need to act this year, removing a key pressure point for action before Jan 1, 2027. (https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/section-702-surveillance-authority-will-not-lapse-if-reauthorized-march) - [2026-09-30] A trade-association legislative tracker confirms Both chambers of Congress are scheduled to return to Washington on November 9 for the lame-duck session , and lists FISA Section 702 reauthorization merely as one item on a long unfinished-business list alongside appropriations, NDAA, surface transportation, WRDA, Export-Import Bank reauthorization, and the Farm Bill. (https://www.asaonline.com/2026/09/30/prospects-for-the-lame-duck-session/) - [2026-09-03] The Hill reported that GOP leadership is deliberately deferring action: GOP lawmakers are punting major fights — including government funding, money for the war with Iran and the extension of expanded surveillance authorities — until after the November election , with Senate Majority Leader Thune expected to punt the annual defense authorization bill and a deal to extend FISA's lapsed surveillance authorities until after the Nov. 3 election — i.e., leadership itself has signaled no floor action before the midterms, compressing the available legislative runway to roughly seven weeks (Nov 9–Dec 31) for any deal, let alone one of the specific two-year duration the market requires. - [2026-10-04] NBC's live blog from literally yesterday confirms the matter remains entirely unresolved and deprioritized: A statistically unproductive Congress has officially left town until after the midterm elections, punting a long list of tasks into the lame-duck session , including simply to Decide what to do about warrantless surveillance powers known as FISA Section 702 — phrasing that shows Congress has not even settled on reform vs. clean renewal vs. duration, let alone drafted a two-year bill. - [2026-09-23] The Hill's deeper dive into stalled conservative priorities confirms the same CBDC-rider/Pulte-appointment deadlock that killed the April/June bills is still unresolved as of late September: Congress has also been unable to reauthorize Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), the nation's warrantless spy power authority, which lapsed in June... even a negotiated bipartisan product to do so flopped in the Senate over a controversial temporary appointment to the top intelligence post — the underlying dispute (CBDC ban, warrant requirement, Pulte as DNI) has not been resolved in the nearly four months since the June lapse. - [2026-10-04] The same live-blog piece shows FISA competing directly for scarce floor time with government funding (due Dec. 11), NDAA, farm bill, college-sports NIL legislation, and permitting reform — a crowded lame-duck docket that historically squeezes out lower-urgency items, especially now that the operational necessity argument is defused by the March 2027 FISC certification runway. - [2026-10-03] A Senate scheduling report notes The Senate is scheduled to be in regular session only eight days in November and 14 days in December — counting Fridays, which aren't typically workdays in the upper chamber , meaning only ~22 legislative days exist in the entire lame-duck window in which a two-year, exactly-matching-RISAA bill would need to be introduced, reconciled between House (3-year model, S.4344/H.R. bills) and Senate (GSRA/SAFE Act/Protect Liberty Act competing reform bills), passed by both chambers, and signed — a very tight mechanical window given none of the currently pending bills of record use a 2-year term. - [Mechanism] No bill text found in any September/October 2026 source proposing exactly a two-year term; the House's only passed full-term bill (April 29) was 3 years, and Senate alternatives (GSRA, SAFE Act, Protect Liberty Act) are multi-year reform packages, not the 2-year "clean" RISAA-style model the resolution criteria require — meaning even if Congress does act in the lame duck, the default duration on the table is 3 years or longer, not 2, which would make the market resolve No on a technicality even if "reauthorization" legislation passes. - [Status-quo inertia] With FISC certifications already confirmed to run operational surveillance through March 2027 (per multiple prior reports), lawmakers face no operational "cliff" before year-end 2026, removing the forcing mechanism (a hard deadline) that produced quick fixes in 2008, 2012, 2018, and 2024 — in each of those cycles, action occurred only when a lapse was operationally imminent, which is not the case here until closer to March 2027. BOTTOM LINE: Every current-month source (late September–early October 2026) confirms Congress has explicitly deferred any FISA Section 702 action to a jam-packed, time-short lame-duck session beginning November 9, with the underlying CBDC/warrant/Pulte disputes still unresolved and no pending bill of record proposing the specific two-year duration this market requires; absent an artificial deadline (since FISC certifications hold through March 2027), status-quo inertia strongly favors no qualifying two-year reauthorization becoming law before January 1, 2027. NOT FOUND: Any bill text or leadership statement from September or October 2026 proposing an exact two-year reauthorization term; any confirmed House/Senate floor schedule entry dedicating time to a Section 702 vote in November or December 2026; any resolution of the Pulte-DNI/CBDC-rider dispute that caused the June 2026 collapse.