Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting? — Fed maintains rate

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds target range by 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike since 2023; new Chair Kevin Warsh led the meeting and the statement said The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent... Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260916a1.pdf) - [2026-09-16] The accompanying Summary of Economic Projections showed most officials expecting further tightening: 16 of 19 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expect at least one more rate hike this year, according to the Fed's "dot plot" of projections , with the median year-end 2026 projection rising to about 4.1%. (https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting) - [2026-08-28/2026-08-31] Ahead of the September decision, Chair Warsh warned at Jackson Hole that "While this summer's [inflation] readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved" , and he has since avoided giving forward guidance on the Fed's future path. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/28/kevin-warsh-jackson-hole-federal-reserve-inflation.html) - [2026-09-29/2026-10-02] New York Fed President John Williams said at the University at Buffalo that "There is no need for urgency" on changing the current setting of monetary policy... "One further upward adjustment" in the policy rate may be appropriate late this year , explicitly ruling out an October hike while keeping a December hike on the table. (https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-may-time-next-interest-173209828.html) - [2026-10-01/2026-10-02] Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson echoed Williams' patience message, saying "my colleagues and I will need to come to our own judgment, which may take more time" ; analysts said the two speeches jointly cemented market expectations that October will be a hold, shifting the "next hike" debate toward December. (https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-may-time-next-interest-173209828.html) - [2026-10-02] Following the Jefferson/Williams remarks, traders saw the likelihood of a hike at the Oct. 27-28 meeting at 70%, based on pricing in federal funds futures... By the time Mr. Jefferson finished his speech on Thursday, those odds had slumped to around 25% , with Goldman Sachs concluding an October hike is unlikely (implying the "hike" debate is now centered on December). (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-02/warsh-s-top-fed-deputies-step-in-to-give-markets-a-clear-message) - [2026-10-03] CME-based Fed Rate Monitor data (Investing.com) for the October 28 meeting showed the market assigning Target Rate 3.75-4.00: Current Probability 77.0% (i.e., ~77% odds of a hold, ~23% hike) for October — reinforcing that most of the hike probability for 2026 has migrated toward the December meeting. (https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor) - [2026-10-03/2026-10-04] Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said there is room for either a hike or a cut going forward, noting the labor market is steady but that too-high inflation remains the bigger priority, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman also weighed in after the Jefferson/Williams remarks. (https://www.inkl.com/news/fed-officials-give-hints-on-rate-decision-as-markets-cut-october-rate-hike-odds) - [2026-10-04] Reporting notes that consumer price data due on Oct. 14 could play a big role in that debate over whether the Fed hikes again this year, making the mid-October CPI print (for September) a key swing input for the December decision. (https://www.inkl.com/news/fed-officials-give-hints-on-rate-decision-as-markets-cut-october-rate-hike-odds / bworldonline mirror) - [2026-10-04] The December 2026 FOMC meeting is confirmed on the official calendar for December 8-9, 2026, with the rate decision and quarterly Summary of Economic Projections/dot plot due at 2:00 PM ET on December 9 — the date this question's resolution tracks. (https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/) - [2026-10-04] Current fed funds target range stands at 3.75%-4.00% (set Sept. 16, 2026); no October meeting has occurred yet as of this report (scheduled Oct 27-28, 2026, before the December meeting). (https://cambridgecurrencies.com/next-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision/) - [2026-09-30] A separate signal: New York Fed President Williams' comment that inflation is "unquestionably too high" while saying one more hike "may be appropriate late this year" is widely read by markets as pointing to December, not October, as the likelier venue for any further 2026 hike. (https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/30/williams-says-the-fed-has-time-october-rate-hike-odds-fell-below-a-coin-flip/) BOTTOM LINE: As of October 4, 2026, the Fed has already hiked once this cycle (September 16, to 3.75%-4.00%) and officials (Williams, Jefferson) have steered markets toward expecting any additional 2026 hike to land in December rather than October, meaning "hike" — not "hold" — is the more actively debated outcome for the December 9 meeting; a 0bp (hold/maintain) outcome is not the current base case being discussed by Fed leadership, though it remains possible depending on incoming CPI (Oct 14) and labor data between now and December. NOT FOUND: No official Fed statement or SEP dot plot specifically for the December 2026 meeting (not yet held); no confirmation of the October 27-28, 2026 meeting outcome (hasn't occurred as of this report); no definitive CME FedWatch or Kalshi probability specifically for the December 9, 2026 meeting's "hold" bucket was found in a primary/live source (only October-meeting-specific probabilities were available).

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC hiked 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% in September 2026, its first hike since 2023, breaking a run of three consecutive 2025 cuts; the FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4% . This establishes the active regime is "tightening," not "holding," going into Q4 2026. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/16/feds-interest-rate-decision-september-16-2026 - [2026-09-16] Right after the September hike, the market was pricing in one more 25 basis point hike in December, followed by continuing rate hikes extending into 2027 — i.e., the base case was a December hike, not a hold. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/16/feds-interest-rate-decision-september-16-2026 - [2026-09-16] The September SEP (dot plot) showed a hawkish shift: the committee expects to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought, with most officials now expecting the benchmark interest rate to sit between 4.1% and 4.4% at end-2026 (vs. a prior estimate of 3.6%-4.1%), consistent with roughly one more hike priced by year-end rather than a hold. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/16/feds-interest-rate-decision-september-16-2026 - [2026-09-16] At the September SEP, 16 of 18 members projected at least one more rate hike this year , and four of the policymakers expected two more hikes this year — the committee's own "outside view" of itself leaned strongly toward hiking, not holding, by December. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-10-02] By early October, weaker labor data shifted odds away from an October hike but not from a December one: Reuters reported Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams said they would rather see more data before considering further action, prompting traders to slash bets on a hike at the Fed's October meeting , while a major bank economist said they "continue to look for another hike at the December FOMC meeting." https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/10/02/fed-may-skip-october-but-pull-us-rate-hike-trigger-in-december/ - [2026-10-02] The same Reuters report notes traders now see about a one-in-four chance of an October rate hike, and an overwhelmingly high probability of a December increase, based on CME FedWatch's analysis of interest-rate futures prices — i.e., market-implied odds strongly favor a hike, not a hold, in December. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/10/02/fed-may-skip-october-but-pull-us-rate-hike-trigger-in-december/ - [2026-10-04] Polymarket's "Another Fed rate hike in 2026?" contract (resolving Dec 9, 2026) trades at 73% "Yes," with context noting recent data and the September 2026 decision have anchored trader expectations for at least one additional 25-basis-point hike before year-end, with December pricing above 65 percent even as October futures sit near 15-20 percent . This is a sibling market pointing toward a hike, which would make the "0bp hike / hold" outcome a minority scenario. https://polymarket.com/event/another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026 - [2026-09-29] A Forbes markets summary described traders as firmly pricing in back-to-back Federal Reserve rate hikes for October and December 2026, signaling a more aggressive tightening path than previously anticipated , and specifically stated if the Fed does not raise rates in October, markets see a hike on Dec. 9 as almost certain . This is the key conditional logic: the less likely an October hike becomes, the more likely markets see a December hike (not a hold) as the path to deliver the dot-plot-implied tightening. https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/09/29/what-to-expect-from-interest-rates-for-the-rest-of-2026/ - [2026-10-03] Growbeansprout/CME-based tracker (updated daily) still frames the question as "hike vs. cut vs. hold" with the tool extracting real-time futures-implied odds; no fetched page gave a stale-free, dated December-only probability split beyond the aggregated sources above, but all agree hold is the minority outcome versus hike as of early October 2026. https://growbeansprout.com/tools/fedwatch - [Historical base rate] Outside the current cycle, the FOMC holds rates unchanged at a plurality of meetings in most years (hikes/cuts cluster around a minority of the 8 annual meetings even in active cycles), so "hold" is usually the modal single-meeting outcome in normal times — but this is not "normal times": 2026 is an active, hawkish tightening cycle with an unusual late-cycle hike (first since 2023) and a stated committee intention to hike further, which overrides the generic base rate. - [2026-10-04] No evidence was found of a scheduled-meeting cancellation scenario (which would auto-resolve "Fed maintains rate" to Yes); the December 8-9, 2026 SEP meeting remains on the published calendar. https://www.financecalendar.com/event/fomc-rate-decision-december-2026/ BOTTOM LINE: The generic historical base rate for a Fed "hold" at any single meeting is moderate-to-high, but that outside view is dominated here by the specific, current hawkish tightening cycle: the Fed hiked in September 2026, its own dot plot and multiple sibling markets (Polymarket ~73% "Yes" on another 2026 hike, CME-based reports of "overwhelmingly high" December hike odds) point to a December hike as the modal outcome, making a 0bp "hold" the minority scenario as of early October 2026. NOT FOUND: An authoritative, date-stamped CME FedWatch screenshot with exact December 2026 hold/hike/cut percentages as of October 2026 (only secondary paraphrases were available); a long-run statistical base rate (e.g., % of FOMC meetings historically resulting in no change) from a primary Fed source.

YES means: the FOMC's December 9, 2026 decision results in no change to the federal funds target range (a "hold"/0bps outcome), i.e., the Fed does NOT hike in December 2026. - [2026-09-07] Macquarie economist David Doyle moved his base case for "the first 25 bps hike to September [previously December]" and said the firm continues "to anticipate a second 25 bps hike in 1Q27" — i.e., one major shop's baseline explicitly places the next hike in Q1 2027, not at the December 2026 meeting, implying a December hold. (https://fortune.com/2026/09/07/wall-street-hike-expectations-kevin-warsh-fed-trump/) - [2026-09-25] J.P. Morgan's Michael Feroli, while expecting a December hike as the median case, flagged a credible dovish counter-argument that "it takes time to observe the effects of the [September] hike on the economy," a lags-based rationale Fed officials could use to justify skipping December entirely. (https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts) - [2026-10-01] Citi's Scott Chronert argued the Fed's next move could actually be a cut rather than a hike, saying the Fed "could be in a holding pattern until mid 2027" before easing — a view that, if it gains traction on the Committee, points toward a December hold rather than a third 2026 tightening move. (https://cnbc.com/2026/10/01/fed-could-be-in-pause-mode-and-make-next-move-a-cut-says-citis-chronert.html — unable to fully re-fetch, sourced via search snippet) - [2026-10-02] Chicago Fed's Goolsbee said "there is plenty of room for anything to be on the table," while noting the September unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% — a fresh labor-softening data point that strengthens the case for Fed officials to pause rather than hike again in December. (https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/10/02/fed-may-skip-october-but-pull-us-rate-hike-trigger-in-december/) - [2026-10-01] A government shutdown has again suspended BLS data collection: September's jobs report was postponed and the Fed is reportedly relying on ADP's private payroll count, which showed "a 32,000-job loss in September," for the October 28 decision — if the shutdown and data blackout persist into the December meeting window, policymakers could lack the data conviction needed to justify a second hike, favoring a hold. (https://startupfortune.com/fed-must-decide-on-rates-this-month-without-the-data-it-normally-uses) - [2026-10-01] Political pressure on Chair Warsh has intensified rather than faded: President Trump publicly said the Fed "has a very hostile board" that has "Trump derangement syndrome" after the September hike, and reportedly told Warsh he "might as well vote with the board" — sustained, high-profile White House pressure against further tightening could make Warsh and dovish-leaning members more reluctant to deliver a second hike in December, especially heading into 2026 midterm season. (https://qz.com/trump-warsh-fed-rate-hike-vote-100126) - [2026-07-31] Even September's hike itself needed a late-breaking data trigger (a hot CPI reading) to materialize, and CNBC's analysis after Warsh's July press conference noted market participants had initially read him as dovish, only pricing in a hike if "upcoming inflation reports stay hot" — underscoring that any further hike is conditional and a run of merely in-line or cooler data (including the delayed/awaited Sept CPI) could tip the committee to hold. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/31/kevin-warsh-fed-inflation-rate-hike-markets.html) - [2026-09-25] J.P. Morgan's own framing stresses the September move is "not expect[ed]" to start "a longer-term hiking cycle" because "inflation continues to look supply-shock-driven" — a framework in which, if the supply shock shows signs of fading before December 9, the Committee could rationally conclude one hike was sufficient and hold. (https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts) - [2026-10-04] No evidence exists yet of any FOMC communication specifically previewing a December hold; this case rests on (a) a minority-but-credible set of bank forecasts (Macquarie, Citi) explicitly NOT calling for a December hike, (b) persistent labor-market softening (unemployment 4.1%→4.2%, ADP's -32k September print), (c) a live, shutdown-driven data blackout that could leave the Committee without a clean justification to hike, and (d) intensified Trump pressure on Warsh that raises the political cost of a second consecutive hike. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case for a December "hold" (0bps) combines a credible minority of forecasters (Macquarie, Citi) who explicitly do not expect a December hike, concrete signs of labor-market softening (unemployment ticking to 4.2%, a negative ADP print), an ongoing government-shutdown data blackout that could deprive the Fed of a clean hike rationale, and sustained Trump-administration pressure on Warsh — any combination of which could lead the Committee to pause after September's hike rather than deliver a second one. NOT FOUND: No FOMC communication or SEP specific to December 2026 exists yet (meeting not held); no primary-source, dated CME FedWatch or Kalshi "hold" probability specifically isolating the December 9 meeting (secondary reports cite ~77-85% hike odds, implying hold is a minority but not negligible scenario); no confirmation of whether the current government shutdown (if ongoing) will still be affecting BLS data releases by December.

YES means: the FOMC's December 9, 2026 decision leaves the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% (a 0bp move, i.e., "Fed maintains rate"), rather than hiking by 25bp or more. - [2026-10-02] The September 2026 jobs report showed payrolls rising just 29,000 against a forecast of ~84,000-90,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, and July/August prior-month payrolls revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs, a clear deterioration that gives the Fed a data-based reason to stay on hold rather than tighten further (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/jobs-report-september-2026.html). - [2026-10-02] Economists directly tied the weak jobs data to rate-path caution: Jefferies' chief U.S. economist called the report "the nail in the coffin for an October hike" , and a Vanguard economist said the report "strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to remain patient" — an argument that, if labor conditions keep softening into November/December data, extends naturally to a December hold rather than just an October one (https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/article/septembers-jobs-report-shows-the-us-added-just-29000-jobs-and-unemployment-ticked-up-195320409.html). - [2026-08-19] The Fed's own recent history shows a pattern of talking hawkish but not following through: at the July 2026 meeting, despite minutes showing officials saw a need for higher rates unless inflation calms, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to hold rates steady, with dissenters favoring a hike — i.e., the Committee has recently chosen inertia over action even when a majority leaned hawkish, a direct precedent for "signaling a hike, then holding." - [2026-09-03/2026-09-25] A stopgap funding bill signed September 3, 2026 keeps the government funded only until Dec. 11, a continuing resolution that funds the operations of the federal government until Dec. 11 — meaning the next shutdown cliff falls just two days after the December 9 FOMC decision, raising the risk of fiscal brinkmanship, data-collection disruption, or market volatility bleeding into the meeting window that could push the Committee toward the safer "no change" option rather than a hike into uncertainty. - [2026-10-03] On a different, non-Dec-9 sibling contract, Kalshi-priced odds show traders see a hold as likely at the very next (January 27, 2027) FOMC meeting at roughly 64%, implying that even if the Fed hikes in December, markets expect it to immediately revert to holding — consistent with a one-and-done, highly conditional hiking stance rather than a committed trajectory, which raises the odds that the single December move could just as easily be a pause if any one of the intervening data points (CPI, jobs, financial conditions) disappoints (https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/). - [2026-10-03] The same tracker shows the Fed's nearest live decision (Oct. 28) odds swung sharply toward a hold in just one week — U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers were already leaning against delivering a second straight rate hike this month to give them time to sift through more economic data — demonstrating how quickly a single weak data print can flip the Committee's revealed preference from "hike" to "hold," a dynamic that could repeat before December 9 if October or early-November data (e.g., the Oct. 14 CPI) disappoint. - [2026-10-02] J.P. Morgan's own economists, while forecasting a December hike, explicitly hedge that they forecast another quarter-point raise in December, but do not expect a longer-term hiking cycle , and their economist noted "a credible case for passing [on another hike] in October is that it takes time to observe the effects of the hike on the economy" — the same "wait to observe effects" logic could just as easily be extended from October to December if Q4 data remain mixed. - [2025-12] Precedent from the prior December meeting (Dec 2025) shows the Fed is capable of producing split, hard-to-predict outcomes under similar hawk/dove tension: three officials dissented, but in opposite directions: Stephen Miran pushed for a larger 50-basis-point cut, while Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid argued the Fed should hold rates steady , underscoring that December FOMC meetings under this Committee have repeatedly produced contested, non-consensus outcomes rather than clean execution of the "obvious" path. - [2026-10-04] Reporting confirms the mid-October CPI print remains an unresolved swing factor for the December decision, with no clear resolution yet of whether inflation is cooling enough to let the Fed skip a second 2026 hike (https://www.inkl.com/news/fed-officials-give-hints-on-rate-decision-as-markets-cut-october-rate-hike-odds). BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO-case (i.e., case for a December hike rather than a 0bp hold) is undercut by concrete signs of labor-market deterioration (weak September payrolls, rising unemployment, large downward revisions), a Fed track record of talking hawkish but then holding (July 2026, and divided December 2025 votes), and a December 11 funding-deadline overhang that could inject fiscal uncertainty right at the meeting — all of which give the Committee a documented, repeatable mechanism to choose "no change" if intervening data (especially the October 14 CPI) disappoint, even though current official rhetoric and sibling-market pricing lean toward a hike. NOT FOUND: No evidence of an active government shutdown as of October 4, 2026 (current funding runs through Dec. 11, 2026, i.e., past the Dec. 9 meeting), so a "meeting cancellation" auto-resolution to Yes is not currently in play; no primary Fed source (speech, minutes) explicitly discussing conditions under which the Committee would skip a signaled December hike.