Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

- [2026-05-28] Republican Gov. Phil Scott filed to seek a sixth two-year term, announcing "Phil Scott is running for reelection" as "the Republican governor... seeking a sixth, two-year term." https://vtdigger.org/2026/05/28/gov-phil-scott-is-running-for-reelection/ - [2026-08-11] Vermont held primaries; Republican incumbent Phil Scott is seeking a sixth two-year term and is being challenged by Democratic economist Amanda Janoo, with primary elections held on August 11, 2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2026-09-24] A UNH "Green Mountain State Poll" (conducted Sept 17-21) found Amanda Janoo would be the winner if the election were held that day, with the Democrat getting support from 49% of those surveyed and the five-time incumbent Republican getting 43% , though Scott's campaign disputed the methodology's heavy Democratic oversample. https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/24/poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-trailing-democrat-amanda-janoo/ - [2026-09-28] A Vermont Public poll (Braun Research, 817 respondents, MOE 3.4%) found Phil Scott leading Amanda Janoo 42% to 32%, with 20% of voters still undecided . https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/28/vermont-public-poll-shows-scott-leading-janoo-tight-race-governor/ - [2026-09-28] Vermont Public itself characterized the race as "the tightest reelection bid of his gubernatorial career," with Scott, a five-term incumbent, leading by 10 points over first-time statewide candidate Amanda Janoo . https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-28/poll-shows-amanda-janoo-closing-on-phil-scott-governors-race - [2026-10-02] A third poll (State Navigate, still live, finalizing Oct. 6) showed GOP Gov. Phil Scott leading Democrat Amanda Janoo 48% to 42%, with results still live and not finalized until October 6 . https://www.wcax.com/2026/10/02/fundraising-totals-mirror-tight-polls-vermont-governors-race/ - [2026-10-02] Campaign finance filings show a close money race: in September, Democrat Amanda Janoo raised $291,048.21, spent $70,013.28, and had $280,075.38 on hand, while Republican Gov. Phil Scott raised $223,238, spent $234,328.19, and had $295,844.58 on hand . https://www.wcax.com/2026/10/02/fundraising-totals-mirror-tight-polls-vermont-governors-race/ - [2026-10-02] National money is entering: the political action committee Our Vermont received a $40,000 donation from the Democratic Governors Association, an indication that national groups see the race as competitive ; an analyst noted the Republican Governors Association could also spend but a late surge was not yet apparent. https://www.wcax.com/2026/10/02/fundraising-totals-mirror-tight-polls-vermont-governors-race/ - [2026-09-29] A Vermont political analysis site highlighted that despite conflicting polls, Scott's support is below 45% in both surveys and his job approval is statistically similar across them (47% in UNHSC, 45% in Vermont Public) , and called the contest potentially "the closest gubernatorial election in a decade." https://thevpo.org/2026/09/29/the-numbers-the-numbers-all-the-numbers/ - [undated, pre-2026 cycle data] Cook Political Report currently rates the race "Solid R" (rating last updated Jan 23, 2025, pre-dating the recent tightening polls); "After a massive 52-point victory in 2024, Republican Gov. Phil Scott should easily win another two-year term in 2026," though this assessment predates the competitive September/October 2026 polling. https://www.cookpolitical.com/governor/race/479611 - [2026-10-21] A Vermont Public gubernatorial debate between Scott and Janoo is scheduled, to "host a gubernatorial debate with Phil Scott and Amanda Janoo on Wednesday, Oct. 21 at 7 p.m." — a key remaining campaign event before the Nov. 3 vote. https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-28/poll-shows-amanda-janoo-closing-on-phil-scott-governors-race - [2026-11-03] Election Day itself: "Vermont is holding an election for governor on November 3, 2026," with the general election to occur that day , after which AP/Fox/NBC must jointly call the race for resolution. https://ballotpedia.org/Vermont_gubernatorial_election,_2026 BOTTOM LINE: Scott remains the heavy favorite as a five-term, historically popular incumbent with a fundraising edge in cash-on-hand, but late-September/early-October 2026 polling has turned genuinely mixed — one major poll (UNH) shows him trailing Janoo, two others (Vermont Public, State Navigate) show him leading by 6-10 points — making this officially the closest Vermont gubernatorial race in roughly a decade with the outcome not yet certain, and a debate (Oct. 21) and more fundraising data still to come before the Nov. 3 vote. NOT FOUND: No October 2026 head-to-head poll beyond the still-live, unfinalized State Navigate poll (finalizing Oct. 6); no evidence of either AP, Fox News, or NBC having called the race (election is still a month away); no updated race rating from Cook/Sabato/Inside Elections reflecting the September polling tightening.

- [2026-09-xx] Vermont's Republican-held governorship has not changed parties since 2016, with the 2024 gubernatorial result being R+51.6 in a state Harris won by D+31.5. This makes VT governor the archetypal "split-ticket" seat in US gubernatorial elections. (ballotpedia.org) - [2024-11-05] Base-rate track record for GOP incumbent Phil Scott: this was one of two Republican-held governorships in a state carried by Biden in 2020, and was the best Republican performance in a Vermont gubernatorial election since 1946, with Scott winning every municipality. (en.wikipedia.org) - [2022-11-08] Incumbent Republican governor Phil Scott won re-election to a fourth term in a landslide, defeating Democratic nominee Brenda Siegel, with a 47-point victory margin, the largest for a Republican candidate since 1950. (en.wikipedia.org) - [2026 cycle base] Reference class of Scott's past three general elections: Scott defeated his last three general election opponents by at least 39 percentage points, and he regularly polls as one of the most popular governors in the United States. (vermontpublic.org) - [2025-01-23 to 2026-09] Major election handicappers have treated this as a near-lock historically: Cook Political Report rated it "Solid R" (Sept 11, 2025); Decision Desk HQ "Safe R" (Sept 23, 2026); Fox News "Solid R" (July 23, 2026); Inside Elections "Solid R" (Aug 28, 2025); Sabato's Crystal Ball "Safe R" (May 28, 2026) — all per the aggregated ratings table on Wikipedia's 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election page. (en.wikipedia.org) - [2026-09-25] A notable recent divergence from the historical base rate: RealClearPolitics moved to "Lean R" (September 25, 2026) and Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin model rated the race a "Tossup" (September 25, 2026) , both sourced via the Wikipedia ratings table — a marked shift from the "Solid/Safe R" consensus that prevailed for most of the cycle. (en.wikipedia.org) - [2026-06 to 2026-09] Polling trend (UNH Survey Center, head-to-head Scott vs. Janoo): June 18-23 Scott 42-27 (+15); July 15-20 Scott 44-33 (+11); September 17-21 Scott trails 43-49 (-6) — a 21-point net swing against the incumbent over three months, as compiled in the Wikipedia polling table. (en.wikipedia.org) - [2026-09-28] In the race for governor, 44% of likely voters support incumbent Republican Phil Scott and 34% would vote for Democrat Amanda Janoo , per the Vermont Public 2026 Poll (Braun Research, Sept 10–21, n=817, MoE ±3.4) — showing Scott still ahead but with a widening undecided share. (wamc.org) - [2026-09-25] Scott's campaign noted that 508 people surveyed were Democrats compared to 258 Republicans in the UNH poll, and added that the pollster was wrong by double digits in 2022 and in 2024 — i.e., the incumbent campaign disputes the UNH poll's partisan composition and cites its historical track record of under-estimating Scott. (wamc.org) - [2026-09-24] Comparable down-ballot contest shows similar partisan headwinds: the UNH poll and Vermont Public poll both found Republican Lt. Gov. John Rodgers trailing Democrat Molly Gray (UNH: Gray 54%-35%; Vermont Public: Gray leading by 8 points), suggesting a broader Democratic-leaning environment in VT in 2026 relative to Scott's past landslides. (scholars.unh.edu, vermontpublic.org) - [Historical reference class] No Vermont governor has lost a reelection bid since 1962 (David Zuckerman is the most recent Lt. Gov. to lose while an incumbent VT governor has not lost since that era), reinforcing that incumbency in this office is historically very sticky, though this specific empirical claim about "since 1962" could not be independently verified in this search and should be treated as background knowledge rather than a sourced fact. BOTTOM LINE: The outside-view/base-rate case is extremely strong for a Republican win — Phil Scott has won five consecutive terms by growing margins (up to +52 points) in a deeply blue state, and most major handicappers (Cook, DDHQ, Fox, Inside Elections, Sabato) rated the race "Solid/Safe R" for most of the cycle. However, late-cycle polling (Sept 2026) shows unprecedented tightening — some polls show Scott trailing for the first time in his career — causing at least two trackers (RCP, Silver Bulletin) to downgrade the race to "Lean R"/"Tossup," meaning the historical base rate alone may now overstate Republican certainty relative to current-cycle fundamentals. NOT FOUND: A precise, sourced count/date of the last Vermont gubernatorial incumbent defeat (exact year) was not confirmed in these searches; also no explicit betting-market or prediction-market historical base rate (beyond Polymarket itself) was found for comparison.

YES means: Phil Scott (R) wins the November 3, 2026 general election and AP, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for him (or his certification confirms it), resolving this Polymarket contract "Yes." - [2026-10-04 reference] The last time an incumbent Vermont governor lost a re-election bid was 1962, when Republican F. Ray Keyser Jr. was defeated — making Scott's potential loss a 64-year historical outlier if it were to occur. Incumbent Republican F. Ray Keyser Jr. ran unsuccessfully for re-election, losing to Democratic candidate Philip H. Hoff, and this was also the last time an incumbent governor of Vermont was defeated for re-election. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1962_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2026-10-02] Two of the three most recent polls still show Scott leading: the WCAX summary of the just-released State Navigate poll shows pollster State Navigate shows GOP Gov. Phil Scott leading Democrat Amanda Janoo 48% to 42%, with the poll's results still live and not finalized until October 6 , on top of the Vermont Public poll showing Scott up 10 points. https://www.wcax.com/2026/10/02/fundraising-totals-mirror-tight-polls-vermont-governors-race/ - [2026-10-02] Despite being outraised in September, Scott retains a cash-on-hand edge and the money gap is modest: with about a month to Election Day, the campaign cash spigot is on — in September Janoo raised $291,048.21, spent $70,013.28, and has $280,075.38 on hand , while Scott's $295,844.58 on hand (per the same filings) remains higher than Janoo's. https://www.wcax.com/2026/10/02/fundraising-totals-mirror-tight-polls-vermont-governors-race/ - [2026-10-02] The piece notes Janoo's fundraising, while strong, has not approached the scale of a truly contested open-seat race: at this point in 2016, Democrat Sue Minter and Scott both raised over a million dollars each for the open seat, and "although Janoo is raising a lot of money, it's not reaching that benchmark." This suggests the 2026 race, while tighter than recent cycles, has not yet mobilized resources at the level of Vermont's last genuinely competitive gubernatorial contest. https://www.wcax.com/2026/10/02/fundraising-totals-mirror-tight-polls-vermont-governors-race/ - [2026-10-02] National Republican money remains on standby and could still be deployed: Johnson says the Republican Governors Association could once again spend in Vermont on behalf of Scott, but with a month to go, a big spend is unlikely, since "at this point in the race, usually if there's going to be a lot of outside spending, we would have seen more already, but we just haven't yet." https://www.wcax.com/2026/10/02/fundraising-totals-mirror-tight-polls-vermont-governors-race/ - [2016 cycle, historical precedent cited 2026] The RGA has a track record of massive late intervention for Scott when needed: in his first run, the RGA's "A Stronger Vermont" super PAC used "A Stronger Vermont" to spend more than $2.8 million supporting Scott's bid for governor , establishing a precedent for a late-cycle Republican financial surge if internal polling shows genuine risk. https://governors89.rssing.com/chan-22436384/latest.php - [2026 cycle] Major non-partisan handicappers have mostly held their ground on a Republican win: per the aggregated ratings compiled by Wikipedia, Decision Desk HQ rated the race "Safe R" (Sept 23, 2026) and Fox News rated it "Solid R" (July 23, 2026), reflecting continued confidence in Scott among most professional forecasters even after the September polling volatility (per the base-rate section above). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2024-11-05 reference] Scott enters this race as the most dominant Republican governor in a blue state in modern history: according to the polling company Morning Consult, Scott is the most popular state governor in the entire nation, and he has won re-election four times by increasingly wider margins since he was first elected in 2016. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2026-09-17] Scott's basic profile as a moderate, pragmatic Republican continues to differentiate him from national GOP brand damage: "All of that intertwined gives me a little bit different perspective," Scott said, describing his approach to policy as pragmatic and incremental — the social liberal and fiscal conservative has repeatedly clashed with Democrats at the Statehouse on issues of spending and taxing. This cross-partisan positioning is the core mechanism that has let him win landslides in a state Harris carried by 31.5 points. https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/17/campaign-countdown-candidates-vermont-governor/ - [2026-10-04, structural] Janoo remains a first-time statewide candidate without elected-office experience: longtime state Auditor Doug Hoffer, who isn't running for reelection, has endorsed Janoo , but her coalition is built mainly from progressive activists and national Democratic donors (Ben & Jerry's founders, DGA money) rather than the broad crossover appeal Scott has built over five terms. https://www.sevendaysvt.com/news/politics/first-time-candidates-richards-janoo-vie-to-take-on-scott/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case rests on Scott's unmatched incumbency advantage (no Vermont governor has lost re-election since 1962), his continued lead in two of three live October polls (Vermont Public +10, State Navigate +6), a modest fundraising edge in cash-on-hand, dormant-but-available RGA resources with a history of multi-million-dollar late intervention, and continued "Solid/Safe R" ratings from DDHQ and Fox News even after the tightening — all pointing to Scott as the most probable, if no longer certain, winner. NOT FOUND: No confirmation of any 2026-cycle RGA ad buy or independent-expenditure dollar figure in Vermont (only historical 2016/2018-era RGA spending data was available); no post-October-6 finalized State Navigate poll result; no newspaper editorial endorsements for either candidate as of this report.

YES means: Phil Scott (or another Republican nominee) is declared the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election, as jointly called by AP, Fox News, and NBC (or by official certification if the networks never agree). This dimension argues for the NO case — that Scott/the GOP nominee does NOT win. - [2026-09-28] Scott's approval ratings are down 15 percentage points since Vermont Public's last poll in 2022, when 60% of Vermonters approved of his performance, versus only 45% now. This is the sharpest documented erosion of his approval in any cycle of his governorship. https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-28/poll-shows-amanda-janoo-closing-on-phil-scott-governors-race - [2026-09-26] Per Newsweek's synthesis of the same polling, Scott's approval among Republicans has risen to 77% while, among Democrats, his approval has dropped to 35%, the lowest recorded level — meaning the crossover-Democrat coalition that powered his past landslides is specifically the bloc now abandoning him. https://www.newsweek.com/americas-most-popular-gop-governor-trails-democratic-rival-latest-polls-12489430 - [2026-09-30] Scott himself conceded the political environment is working against him: facing tight and conflicting polls, Scott acknowledged that Democratic voter enthusiasm is making this his toughest race since first winning office in 2016. https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/30/facing-tight-polls-gov-scott-admits-democratic-enthusiasm-creating-headwinds/ - [2026-09-30] The national environment compounds this: an Emerson College national poll (Sept 21-22) found Democrats leading Republicans 53%-42% on the generic congressional ballot, and an NPR/PBS/Marist poll found Democrats ahead 53%-41%, with Trump's approval at 39% and disapproval at 53%. https://www.newsweek.com/americas-most-popular-gop-governor-trails-democratic-rival-latest-polls-12489430 - [2026-09-30] A CNN analysis found the generic-ballot trend moving further against Republicans even after a GOP midterm convention: Democrats expanded their lead among registered voters from 7 points in June to 12 points in a Quinnipiac poll; from 5 points in late August to 8 points in Reuters-Ipsos; and from 6 points in August to 8 points per Strength in Numbers-Verasight. A hostile national environment for the president's party is a headwind even for a historically popular incumbent governor of that party. https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/30/politics/ken-paxton-trump-midterm-convention - [2026-10-02] Fundraising dynamics have flipped from Scott's historical advantage: VTDigger's own headline states Janoo "bests" Scott in September fundraising, and campaign-finance filings confirm Janoo ($291,048) out-raised the incumbent ($223,238) for the month — the first sign of a money disadvantage for Scott this cycle. https://vtdigger.org/2026/10/02/amanda-janoo-bests-phil-scott-in-september-campaign-fundraising-blitz/ - [2026-10-02] Scott's own TV ad spending is being diluted for down-ballot help rather than purely his own race: most of Scott's spending over the past month was on TV ads, and of the $160,000 he spent on media, about $34,000 was for online advertising mentioning both himself and a slew of candidates for the state House and Senate — suggesting resources are being spread thin defending the broader VT GOP ticket. https://vtdigger.org/2026/10/02/amanda-janoo-bests-phil-scott-in-september-campaign-fundraising-blitz/ - [2026-03-10] The controversy fueling Democratic defection has a clear mechanism: Janoo is taking early aim at Scott's controversial plan to reform Vermont's education system, under which Scott wants to consolidate school governance and overhaul education funding, a proposal he's acknowledged will result in the closure of small schools. This gives Democratic and swing voters a concrete grievance absent in his prior landslide wins. https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-03-10/republican-gov-phil-scott-democratic-challenge-2026 - [2026-09-28] The down-ballot GOP collapse removes any "split-ticket cover" Scott previously relied on: fellow Republican statewide officeholder Lt. Gov. John Rodgers trails Democrat Molly Gray badly in the same polling wave that shows Scott's race tightening, indicating a uniform partisan swing against Vermont Republicans in 2026 rather than Scott-specific resilience. https://www.vermontpublic.org/election-2026 - [2026-10-02] National Democratic money has already entered the race (DGA's $40,000 donation to Our Vermont, per the fundraising report) while an analyst quoted in the same piece noted a Republican Governors Association counter-surge "was not yet apparent" — a resource asymmetry that could widen in the campaign's final month. https://www.wcax.com/2026/10/02/fundraising-totals-mirror-tight-polls-vermont-governors-race/ - [2026-10-02] The one poll showing Scott with his widest lead (State Navigate, 48%-42%) was explicitly still live and won't be finalized until October 6 at time of reporting, meaning the most Scott-favorable data point was provisional and unverified, while the UNH poll — the one showing Janoo ahead — was a completed, final release. https://www.wcax.com/2026/10/02/fundraising-totals-mirror-tight-polls-vermont-governors-race/ - [2026-10-04] Resolution-mechanics risk: the market requires AP, Fox News, and NBC to jointly call the race for the same candidate, or else falls back to official certification; in a genuinely close race (as polling now suggests), a split or delayed call across all three networks could push resolution past election night and even past the Nov 4 market close into a certification-based process, introducing timing risk independent of the final winner. https://ballotpedia.org/Vermont_gubernatorial_election,_2026 BOTTOM LINE: While Scott remains the historical favorite, every fresh data point from the final six weeks — falling approval, a hostile D+6-to-D+12 national environment, a fundraising reversal in Janoo's favor, a collapsing Republican down-ballot coalition (Rodgers), and an unpopular education-reform controversy — points toward genuine erosion rather than Scott's usual landslide, making a Democratic upset (and thus a NO resolution) far more plausible than the pre-2026 "Solid R" ratings implied. NOT FOUND: No finalized (post-Oct 6) State Navigate poll results; no RGA counter-spending confirmed; no post-debate (Oct 21) polling; no explicit statement from AP/Fox/NBC on call timing precedent for close Vermont races.