Will legislation that would temporarily suspend or reduce the federal excise tax on gasoline become law before Jan 1, 2027?

- [2026-03-09] Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) introduced S.4032, the "Gas Prices Relief Act of 2026" to suspend the federal gasoline excise tax through Oct 1, 2026; it was read twice and referred to the Senate Finance Committee, the only action recorded. (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/4032/text) - [2026-04-30] Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA) introduced H.R.8600, a price-triggered partial fuel-tax suspension (when gas tops $3.99/gal); referred to House Ways and Means, no further action. (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8600) - [2026-05-11] Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) introduced S.4485, the "Gas Tax Suspension Act," a 90-180 day gasoline/diesel tax holiday; read twice and referred to Senate Finance Committee, no further movement reported. (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/4485/text) - [2026-05-11] President Trump publicly backed suspending the federal gas tax "till it's appropriate," and Energy Secretary Chris Wright signaled administration openness to a pause, but no administration bill text or formal transmittal to Congress followed. (https://rollcall.com/2026/05/12/federal-gas-tax-holiday-sees-growing-support-amid-pain-at-the-pump/) - [2026-09-15] Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD), with Trump's backing, introduced H.R.10392 to zero out the gasoline/diesel excise tax through Dec. 31, 2026; it was referred to House Ways and Means the same day. On September 15, 2026, Mr. Harris of Maryland introduced the bill, providing that the rate of tax shall be zero for fuel sold before December 31, 2026. - [2026-09-15] A Harris-led attempt to force floor time for H.R.10392 by withholding votes on a procedural rule collapsed when two Democrats crossed over, letting the rule pass 214-211 without him, per Roll Call reporting cited by a secondary outlet. (https://themoneyoverview.com/38-trumps-plan-to-suspend-the-18-4-cent-federal-gas-tax-through-2026-has-stalled/) - [2026-09-16] Govinfo/LegiScan bill-status records confirm H.R.10392's only action remains the Sept. 15 referral to Ways and Means — "25% progression," pending in committee with no markup scheduled. (https://legiscan.com/US/bill/HB10392/2025?guid=2glYCkKEwsn89q25pfxOiU) - [2026-09-22] House Transportation and Infrastructure Chairman Sam Graves confronted Harris at a GOP leadership meeting opposing the gas-tax suspension; the House then went into recess without a vote. A proposal from Rep. Andy Harris to suspend the federal gas and diesel taxes for three months just hit a wall inside his own party; the House went into recess until after the midterm elections without ever bringing the bill to a vote. - [2026-09-24] CPA Practice Advisor's update found the bill still parked in committee nine days after the floor-vote standoff, with no indication GOP leadership intended to schedule action before the chamber's break. (https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/2026/09/24/gas-tax-holiday-bill-on-ice-despite-house-rule-fracas/190494/) - [2026-09-25] A review of both the Harris (H.R.10392) and an earlier Harder/Schrier "Gas Prices Relief Act" (H.R.8572, introduced April 29) found neither had advanced past committee referral at Ways and Means, with no hearing or markup scheduled for either. (https://themoneyoverview.com/38-trumps-plan-to-suspend-the-18-4-cent-federal-gas-tax-through-2026-has-stalled/) - [2026-10-01] Rep. Russell Fry (R-SC) introduced a new, narrower bill (the "EASE Act") letting the president declare an emergency and suspend the federal gas tax for up to 120 days during a fuel disruption; it was just introduced with Rep. Joe Wilson as a cosponsor, with no committee action yet reported. Rep. Russell Fry said he introduced the Presidential Emergency Action to Stabilize Energy, or EASE, Act, letting the president declare a national emergency and suspend the federal gas tax for up to 120 days in response to a fuel supply disruption or a sharp rise in fuel prices. - [2026-09-2x] No federal gasoline excise-tax suspension is in effect; multiple state-level gas tax holidays (Georgia, Indiana, Illinois) remain active or lapsed, but the federal 18.4 cents/gallon tax is still being collected, per fuel-tax tracking services. (https://govtschemes.org/gas-tax-holiday-state-by-state-relief-guide/) BOTTOM LINE: As of October 4, 2026, at least five distinct federal gas-tax-suspension bills (bipartisan, including one with Trump's public backing) have been introduced in the 119th Congress in 2026, but none has advanced past committee referral — no markup, no floor vote in either chamber, and no presidential signature. The House is in recess until after the Nov. 3 midterms with GOP leadership internally divided, leaving a narrow and uncertain window before Jan. 1, 2027. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any Senate Finance or House Ways and Means committee markup/vote on any of these bills; no White House-sponsored legislative text; no scheduled floor vote date after the House returns from recess in November 2026.

- [1956-present] The federal gas tax has not been suspended since the establishment of the Highway Trust Fund in 1956. This is a near-80-year run of zero YES resolutions for this exact type of event. (https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R48948.html) - [2026-05-15] CRS confirms the base-rate pattern: Members of Congress have previously proposed temporarily suspending the federal gas tax in response to various factors, such as rising gas prices, economic conditions, or world events, citing COVID/inflation-era bills (2021-22) and Great Recession-era bills (2008-09) — none of which became law. (https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R48948.html) - [2008-04-17] Historical precedent: McCain/Kyl's S.2890 amends the Internal Revenue Code to suspend excise taxes on gasoline and diesel fuels between May 26, 2008, and September 1, 2008 — introduced, referred to Finance Committee, never passed. (https://www.govinfo.gov/bulkdata/BILLSTATUS/110/s/BILLSTATUS-110s2890.xml) - [2022-05-31] 2022 cycle precedent: Schiff's H.R.7926 suspends the excise tax on gasoline (other than aviation gasoline) until December 31, 2023 — introduced, referred to Ways and Means, never advanced; Biden-era gas tax holiday push also failed in Congress that year. (https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/7926) - [2026-05-09 to present] Current cycle has produced at least five federal bills (H.R.3768, H.R.7919/S.4032, H.R.8572, H.R.8600, S.4485, H.R.10392) proposing suspension/reduction of the gas tax, but as of the CRS brief During the 119th Congress, multiple Members have introduced bills to suspend the federal gas tax, including H.R. 3768; H.R. 7919; H.R. 8572; S. 4032; and S. 4485. None have passed committee markup. (https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/HTML/R48948.html) - [2026-09-18] House leadership declined to bring Rep. Andy Harris's gas-tax-suspension bill to a floor vote: House Speaker Mike Johnson said leadership ultimately decided against a vote after it became clear there wasn't agreement on the measure within the GOP conference. (https://www.forevercumberland.com/2026/09/18/no-vote-will-be-taken-on-suspension-of-federal-gas-tax/) - [2026-09-25] Follow-up reporting shows the renamed bill (H.R.10392) remains stuck: A bill to suspend the federal government's 18.4-cent-a-gallon gasoline tax and 24.4-cent diesel tax through the end of 2026 has gone nowhere in the House... the bill sits referred to the Ways and Means Committee, with House Speaker Mike Johnson acknowledging Republicans could not agree on how to proceed. (https://themoneyoverview.com/38-trumps-plan-to-suspend-the-18-4-cent-federal-gas-tax-through-2026-has-stalled/) - [2026-10-01] Senate's leading GOP bill (Hawley's S.4485) has seen no legislative movement: the current average price for a gallon of on-highway diesel is higher today ($6.38) than it was ($5.64) when the original proposals were made, but Sen. Hawley's bill has seen no action since its May 11 introduction, having been read twice and referred to the Committee on Finance. (https://ccjdigital.com/regulations/equipment/article/15836260/federal-tax-bills-stall-as-diesel-prices-hit-record-highs) - [2026-05-12] Even at the political peak of momentum in May 2026, House GOP leadership would not commit: On Tuesday, House Republican Majority Leader Steve Scalise declined to commit to bringing legislation suspending the tax up for a vote, according to Politico. (https://www.usnews.com/news/u-s-news-decision-points/articles/2026-05-13/a-holiday-from-the-federal-gas-tax-not-so-fast) - [2026-05-11] Structural Senate hurdle noted at the time: Legislation to suspend the gas tax would need to pick up at least seven Democratic votes in the Senate to overcome a filibuster. (https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5872714-hawley-suspend-gas-tax-bill/) - [state-level contrast] Several states (Ohio, Georgia, Indiana, Utah, Kentucky) have passed and enacted state-level gas-tax holidays in 2026 (e.g., Ohio's 90-day suspension signed into law 2026-10-01), showing state legislatures act far more readily than Congress on this issue — a useful contrast class showing political will exists locally but has not translated to federal action. (https://www.13abc.com/2026/09/30/ohio-lawmakers-pass-gas-tax-suspension-heads-governors-desk/) NOT FOUND: No evidence of any federal gas-tax-suspension bill having passed committee markup, floor vote in either chamber, or being scheduled for a vote in the current (119th) Congress as of early October 2026. No betting-market or professional forecaster probability estimates (e.g., from prediction aggregators or pundits) specifically on federal enactment were found. BOTTOM LINE: The reference class is essentially 0-for-many over nearly 70 years — the federal gas tax has never been suspended despite repeated attempts during the 2008 recession, 2022 inflation spike, and now the 2026 Iran-war price shock, and even in 2026, with presidential backing, House leadership has twice declined to schedule floor votes amid GOP infighting over funding offsets. This track record implies a strong structural bias toward NO, with the current bills' stalled status reinforcing rather than breaking that pattern.

YES means: Congress passes, and the President signs (or a veto is overridden), a bill that temporarily suspends or reduces the federal gasoline excise tax before Jan 1, 2027 — i.e., any one of the pending bills (or a new vehicle) clears both chambers and is enacted. - [2026-09-29] Sens. Kelly and Rep. Pappas escalated rather than abandoned the push, introducing a broader "Consumer Fuel Prices Relief Act" that would provide federal fuel tax relief until the end of September 2027 by pausing the gas tax, the diesel tax, and the aviation fuel tax while ensuring the cost savings are immediately passed on to consumers in full , showing continued bipartisan-adjacent legislative energy rather than the issue dying. (https://www.kelly.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/kelly-pappas-expand-legislation-to-suspend-gas-tax-and-lower-costs-at-the-pump/) - [2026-10-01] A new, narrower GOP vehicle emerged — Rep. Russell Fry's "EASE Act" — which would let the president declare a national emergency and suspend the federal gas tax for up to 120 days in response to a fuel supply disruption or a sharp rise in fuel prices , with Rep. Joe Wilson as an original cosponsor; its emergency-trigger design is more fiscally contained than open-ended suspensions and could be easier for deficit-conscious members to accept. (https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Press+Release:+Russell+Fry+Introduces+Bill+to+Temporarily+Suspend+Federal+Gas+Tax) - [2026-09-29] Georgia's governor invoked a new state of emergency to re-suspend state motor fuel taxes due to global market volatility , through Oct. 29 — evidence that the underlying price/supply shock driving the federal push has not abated and could still force congressional action before year-end. (https://dor.georgia.gov/2026-suspension-georgia-motor-fuel-taxes-faqs) - [2026-10-01] Ohio's legislature, on an election-year recess, reconvened in a special emergency session to pass a 90-day state gas-tax holiday with veto-proof margins (26-5 Senate, 78-16 House), confirming that even recessed, divided legislatures can move fast under price/political pressure — a template Congress could emulate post-midterms if GOP leadership decides it is politically necessary. (https://woub.org/2026/10/01/ohio-lawmakers-overwhelmingly-approve-gas-tax-holiday/) - [2026-09-14/15] The White House-aligned push remains intact: Rep. Fry's office noted President Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright are supportive of efforts to lower prices at the pump and have called on Congress to suspend the gas tax temporarily , meaning presidential signature is not the bottleneck — only floor scheduling is, and that could change once midterm messaging incentives peak in October-November. - [2026-09-18 reported] Speaker Johnson's own framing of the stall was about timing and internal consensus, not a permanent rejection: the bill sits referred to the Ways and Means Committee, with House Speaker Mike Johnson acknowledging Republicans could not agree on how to proceed — leaving the door open for revival once a workable pay-for or narrower design (e.g., Fry's emergency-trigger model) resolves the internal GOP dispute. - [2026-05-11] Structural path exists on paper: Hawley's bill is drafted so that if the President determines, in the President's sole discretion, that economic conditions merit an additional suspension of the tax on taxable fuels... the date which is 180 days extends automatically — showing some drafters have already built in mechanisms for extension/renewal that could be attached to a future vehicle without needing fresh standalone floor time. - Mechanism to YES: the most plausible path is a post-midterm (after Nov. 3) House floor vote on a narrowed, emergency-trigger bill (EASE Act model) or a revised Harris-style suspension, attached to or passed alongside a must-move item in the lame-duck session, followed by Senate passage (needing ~7 Democratic votes to break a filibuster) and Trump's signature — all of which is procedurally possible within the roughly 8 weeks between the midterms and Jan. 1, 2027, if GOP leadership decides unified messaging on "pump relief" outweighs revenue/Highway Trust Fund concerns. BOTTOM LINE: The YES case rests on continued, escalating bipartisan bill introductions (Kelly-Pappas expansion, Fry's EASE Act) and persistent price/political pressure (Georgia/Ohio state emergencies) keeping the issue alive into the lame-duck session, with Trump's backing removing the signature bottleneck — but it still requires House leadership to resolve its internal GOP standoff and find 60 Senate votes in a compressed post-midterm window. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any scheduled House or Senate floor vote date after the Nov. 3 midterms, no committee markup on any gas-tax bill, and no indication of which specific vehicle (if any) GOP leadership intends to prioritize during the lame-duck session.

YES means: Congress passes and the President signs (or Congress overrides a veto on) a bill that temporarily suspends or reduces the federal gasoline excise tax, with enactment occurring after May 10, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027. - [2026-09-16] The most advanced 2026 vehicle, Rep. Andy Harris's H.R.10392, died on the floor-access question before the midterm recess: Freedom Caucus members tried to force a vote by threatening to sink a procedural rule, but Speaker Mike Johnson said leadership decided against a vote after it became clear there wasn't agreement on the measure within the GOP conference, noting "there were about 10 different ideas on what to do." - [2026-09-16] The rule that let leadership avoid the floor fight only passed because two Democrats, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Jared Golden, crossed the aisle to support it, 214-211 — meaning Harris's own bloc lost its only leverage point and has not regained one since. - [2026-09-16] A key GOP committee chair is on record opposing the bill outright: House Transportation and Infrastructure Chairman Sam Graves opposed bringing the measure to the floor , directly blocking the committee with jurisdiction over Highway Trust Fund policy. - [2026-10-01] Congress.gov's official action log shows H.R.10392 has had no substantive movement in over two weeks since introduction — its only listed action remains referral to Ways and Means, with a duplicate referral entry dated 10/01/2026 and no hearing, markup, or discharge petition filed. - [2026-09-22] Harris himself conceded the bill offers only trivial relief and ducked the funding-offset question: the savings would be modest – about $2.75 on a 15-gallon purchase – and Harris's bill does not say how the lost revenue would be replaced, though Harris said Congress should replenish the money , leaving the central fiscal objection unresolved. - [2026-09-16] Industry lobbying reinforces the committee-level blockade: the National Asphalt Pavement Association publicly argued the gas tax "remains a vital source of revenue for the Highway Trust Fund and an important tool for investing in our nation's roads and bridges," giving Ways and Means Republicans cover to let the bill sit. - [2026-09-29] Senate Democrats are in an openly combative, pre-election filibuster posture on unrelated must-pass items, with Minority Leader Schumer dismissing a separate GOP-backed bill as a "fraud" and Republicans warning it is "extremely unlikely to garner the 60 votes it needs to overcome the legislative filibuster," illustrating that any gas-tax bill would face the same 60-vote wall in a chamber where cooperation is scarce this cycle. - [2025-11-24] The published 2026 House floor calendar confirms a severely compressed legislative window before Jan. 1, 2027: both chambers are in session on November 9-10, 17-20, and 30, with only the House in session November 11-12, and both chambers in session December 1-3, 8-11, and 14-17, with only the Senate in session December 4, 7, and 18 — leaving only a handful of working weeks for any bill to clear committee, floor, and conference in both chambers. - [2025-11-18] That calendar was deliberately thinned for midterm-year campaigning: the last day in session before the pre-election break was Oct. 1, with House lawmakers out for over five weeks before Election Day, returning Nov. 9 , meaning any post-election push must compress committee work, floor votes in both chambers, and a presidential signature into roughly six to seven weeks total. - [2026-10-04] A fifth, narrower bill (Rep. Russell Fry's EASE Act, introduced Oct. 1) emerged even as the Harris bill stalled — a pattern of proliferating, competing proposals (now at least six: S.4032, H.R.8600, S.4485, H.R.8572, H.R.10392, EASE Act) that historically fragments rather than consolidates support, as seen when Johnson cited "10 different ideas" as the reason for inaction. - [1956-2026] No federal gas-tax suspension bill has ever been enacted in roughly seven decades of similar attempts (2008, 2022, and now 2026), and the 2026 cycle — despite unusually high prices, Trump's public endorsement, and five competing bills — has so far replicated that unbroken failure pattern at every stage: no markup, no floor vote, no Senate action. BOTTOM LINE: Every concrete 2026 vehicle has died at the committee-referral or floor-access stage due to intra-GOP disagreement (Graves' opposition, Johnson's "10 different ideas," lost Freedom Caucus leverage) and an unresolved Highway Trust Fund offset fight, while the compressed post-midterm legislative calendar (roughly six working weeks across both chambers) and a combative Senate filibuster dynamic make it structurally very difficult for any version to pass both chambers and reach the President's desk before Jan. 1, 2027. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any scheduled Ways and Means markup, no House GOP whip count or discharge-petition signature total on H.R.10392, no Senate Finance Committee action or vote count on S.4485/S.4032, and no indication from Senate Democratic or Republican leadership of a specific floor date for any gas-tax bill after the midterm recess.