Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") becomes law before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027

- [2025-07-04] The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) was signed into law, amending IRC §165(d) to cap gambling loss deductions at 90% of losses for tax years beginning after December 31, 2025, capped at wagering winnings for the year. https://claritytaxcounsel.com/guides/90-percent-gambling-loss-rule - [2025-09] Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) introduced the FAIR BET Act just days after OBBB's signing; it strikes the 90% language from IRC Section 165(d) and replaces it with 100%; Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto introduced a similar bill (S.2230). https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathangoldman/2026/01/13/gambling-tax-alert-new-law-cuts-loss-deductions-bettors-face-big-hit/ - [2026-01-08] Reps. Max Miller (R-OH) and Steven Horsford (D-NV) introduced a bipartisan alternative, the FULL HOUSE Act (H.R. 6985), restoring the 100% deduction. https://horsford.house.gov/media/press-releases/congressmen-horsford-and-miller-introduce-bipartisan-bill-to-restore-full-gaming-loss-deduction - [2026-01-12] The FAIR BET Act was blocked as a proposed amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for 2026, preventing the measure from reaching a vote on the House floor . https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/01/12/117072-us-house-panel-blocks-fair-bet-act-leaving-2026-gambling-tax-change-in-place - [2026-02] Titus filed Discharge Petition No. 16 in an attempt to force a House floor vote on the FAIR BET Act. A separate attempt to pass a repeal by unanimous consent in the Senate was also blocked (Sen. Todd Young objected). https://www.poker.pro/poker-news/good-news-for-u-s-poker-players-congress-moves-to-restore-full-gambling-loss-deduction/ - [2026-01-01] The 90% cap took effect for the 2026 tax year, as no repeal had passed by that date. https://www.ktllp.cpa/obbb-impact-on-gambling/ - [2026-09-14] House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith introduced H.R. 10357, the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act, incorporating the FULL HOUSE Act's gambling-loss fix (retroactive to tax years after Dec 31, 2025). Confirmed on congress.gov. https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/10357 - [2026-09-16] The House Ways and Means Committee ordered H.R. 10357 to be reported in the nature of a substitute by the Yeas and Nays, 38-5 , marking the first committee-level approval of a gambling-loss fix. https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/10357 - [2026-09-16] The committee-approved fix would eliminate the 90% limitation on wagering-loss deductions and restore full deductibility retroactive to taxable years beginning after Dec. 31, 2025, meaning if passed as written the restoration would be retroactive to Jan. 1, 2026. https://www.poker.pro/poker-news/good-news-for-u-s-poker-players-congress-moves-to-restore-full-gambling-loss-deduction/ - [2026-09-16] Multiple reports confirm the bill moved forward without passage by the full House or action by the Senate , and still requires passage by the full House, Senate approval, and presidential signature. https://www.tokenpost.com/news/regulation/26222 - [2026-09-23] As of this report, the bill has been stuck in committee for months and it's not likely to be debated until November, because Speaker Johnson's call for a recess pulled the House away from Washington until after the midterm elections, with the recess probably not ending until the scheduled time of Nov. 9. https://www.thelines.com/legal-betting/restoration-of-gambling-loss-deduction-clears-house-committee/ - [2026-10-04] No Senate companion action, floor vote, or presidential action has occurred on any gambling-loss-deduction fix; H.R. 10357's latest official action remains the Sept. 16, 2026 committee order to report. While ordered to be reported to the House floor, it has not yet become law. https://tronweekly.com/illinois-crypto-tax-delay-heads-to-court-as BOTTOM LINE: A gambling-loss-deduction fix (via H.R. 10357) has cleared committee with strong bipartisan support (38-5) but has not had a House floor vote, Senate vote, or presidential signature as of Oct 4, 2026; the House is in recess until roughly Nov 9, 2026 midterms, leaving only a compressed window (lame-duck session, ~7-8 weeks) before the Jan 1, 2027 deadline for full House passage, Senate passage, and enactment. NOT FOUND: No confirmed House floor vote date or Senate floor schedule for H.R. 10357 (or any gambling-tax-fix vehicle); no Senate companion bill's committee status; no indication of presidential commitment to sign if passed.

- [2025-07-04] The OBBBA was signed into law, burying a new 90% cap on deductions for gambling losses within the law. This created the underlying grievance that spawned multiple repeal bills (FAIR BET Act H.R.4304, WAGER Act, FULL HOUSE Act S.2230/H.R.6985). Source: natptax.com. - [2026-01-12] First legislative attempt failed: a U.S. congressional effort to restore full federal deductions for gambling losses stalled after the House Rules Committee declined to advance the FAIR BET Act, blocked as a proposed amendment to the NDAA for 2026, preventing the measure from reaching a vote on the House floor. Source: yogonet.com. - [2026-04-21] A second attempt also failed: the House Rules Committee rejected a bill proposed by Nevada Representative Dina Titus that would restore the 100% tax deduction on gambling losses from the 90% that will begin in January. Source: bookmakersreview.com. - [2026-01-12 reporting] Senate-side effort showed no momentum either: the pushback reaches the Senate, too, where important Finance Committee members do not seem keen to revisit the deduction limit... A different bill from Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto to undo the reduction has gone nowhere, with no hearing scheduled. Source: gamblingnews.com. - [2026-09-16] Breakthrough: the Ways and Means Committee overwhelmingly voted 38-5 to pass a provision that would eliminate the 90% limit on gambling losses taxpayers can deduct , attached to H.R. 10357 (Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act) rather than as a standalone bill. Source: covers.com. - [2026-09-16] Specifically, the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee considered legislation that would restore a 100% federal tax deduction for gambling losses against gambling winnings... and apply to taxable years beginning after Dec. 31, 2025, providing retroactive relief for 2026. Source: yogonet.com. - [2026-09-16/17] Industry sources note the process is far from finished: The bill now moves to the full House and would still need Senate passage and the president's signature to become law. Source: horseracingnation.com. - [2026-09-16] Timing is uncertain and likely delayed: H.R. 10357... received bipartisan support in the House committee Wednesday and is headed to the House floor for a full vote. The timing is unclear, as CNN reports the House is not scheduled to return until after the November midterm elections. Source: covers.com. - [2026-09-16] Even the bill's champion frames passage as not yet secured, only urged: "After 14 months of fighting to get this commonsense, bipartisan fix through committee, we must now encourage the House to approve this measure before Jan. 1, 2027. This would stop the reduction to 90 percent from taking effect" — Rep. Dina Titus. Source: bettingnews.com. - [2026-09-27] Secondary coverage confirms remaining steps: It is making its way through the legislative ranks but still needs full House and Senate approval. Source: 247wallst.com. - [2026-09-17] A similar earlier version of the deal highlights broad industry backing (MGM, Caesars, Wynn, DraftKings, FanDuel, AGA, Nevada Resort Association) per bettingnews.com, suggesting strong but not yet decisive momentum, as the measure has passed only one of three required chambers/steps (committee → House floor → Senate → President). - [2026-09-16] Fiscal/budget headwind persists: the gambling-loss provision would increase federal revenue by 33%... The committee estimates repealing the provision would reduce federal revenue by about $2 billion over the next 10 years, a cost offset lawmakers must still negotiate. Source: covers.com. BOTTOM LINE: The historical base rate here is unfavorable to quick passage — two prior standalone repeal attempts (FAIR BET Act) were blocked in committee/Rules in Jan and Apr 2026 — but the reference class shifted materially in Sept 2026 when a repeal provision was folded into a must-pass-style tax/digital-asset vehicle (H.R. 10357) and cleared committee 38-5 with bipartisan and heavy industry backing. Still, the bill needs a House floor vote (not scheduled until after Nov. midterms), Senate passage, and presidential signature before Jan 1, 2027, so based on analogous multi-chamber tax-fix timelines this remains an uncertain, compressed-timeline path rather than a done deal. NOT FOUND: No confirmed House floor vote date for H.R. 10357; no Senate companion vote scheduled or Senate floor calendar item identified; no explicit statement from Trump/White House on signing intent for this specific bill; no formal betting-market or expert quantitative probability estimate for enactment before Jan 1, 2027 beyond qualitative optimism from Titus and AGA's Bill Miller.

YES means: Congress passes and the President signs into law a bill that removes or changes OBBBA's 90% gambling-loss-deduction cap (e.g., H.R. 10357 or a successor vehicle) before Jan 1, 2027. - [2026-09-16] Placing the measure in a committee markup bill, rather than attaching it as an amendment to unrelated legislation, is a meaningful procedural upgrade, since Ways and Means controls federal tax law, giving H.R. 10357 a more direct path than any prior vehicle. This is a structurally stronger path than the two earlier failed attempts (FAIR BET Act amendment blocks in Jan/Apr 2026). https://www.poker.pro/poker-news/good-news-for-u-s-poker-players-congress-moves-to-restore-full-gambling-loss-deduction/ - [2026-09-17] Unlike the CLARITY Act, this bill raises Treasury revenue and carries no ethics fight, giving it the best realistic odds of passing this Congress. A net revenue-raising vehicle is less likely to trigger the kind of Senate blue-slip/pay-for objections that sank the standalone FAIR BET Act. https://247wallst.com/investing/cryptocurrency/2026/09/17/the-house-advanced-a-crypto-tax-bill-38-to-5-what-the-digital-asset-tax-certainty-act-changes-for-bitcoin-holders/ - [2026-09-16] The House move comes as the Senate remains deadlocked on broader capital gains tax measures, with a potential lame-duck session offering a path forward... The House will leave Washington after upcoming proceedings until after November's elections. Hence, lawmakers could revisit the measure during the lame [duck session] , giving a concrete, named window for floor action. https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/house-panel-advances-digital-asset-tax-certainty-act-in-38-5-vote - [2026-09-27] With a full plate over the summer, lawmakers are putting aside some pressing items, hoping that the lame duck session will be where they can be addressed. That includes the potential bipartisan tax bill on cryptocurrencies... Many tax issues are being pushed aside for now, but lawmakers hope to address them late in 2026, after the mid-term elections , directly naming H.R. 10357-type legislation as a lame-duck target. https://ebtaxblog.substack.com/p/capitol-hill-recap-lame-duck-lawmaking - [2026-09-28] Congress is entering what could be its final legislative week before lawmakers spend most of October on the campaign trail ahead of the November midterm elections. When lawmakers return, they will face a full agenda, including government funding that expires on December 11 — a Dec. 11 funding deadline creates a natural must-pass legislative moment that tax riders (including gambling-loss fixes) have historically attached to. https://www.argentum.org/this-week-in-washington-final-legislative-days-before-elections/ - [2026 calendar] The Senate's official 2026 schedule sets a TARGET ADJOURNMENT - DECEMBER 18, 2026 , leaving roughly five-to-six weeks of active floor time after the midterms (Nov. 9–Dec. 18) during which both chambers, plus the President's signature, could theoretically complete action before Jan. 1, 2027. https://www.senate.gov/legislative/resources/pdf/2026_calendar.pdf - [2026-09-16] Wednesday's committee vote sends the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act to the full House, but passage is not guaranteed. Prediction markets had seen more than $3.1 million wagered on whether the 90% limitation will be repealed, with traders implying a 48% chance of repeal by an unspecified date — evidence that informed market participants, as of mid-September, saw passage as a near coin-flip rather than a long-shot, reinforcing that a YES path is plausible, not merely theoretical. https://lasvegassun.com/news/2026/sep/17/house-ways-and-means-committee-advances-bill-to-re/ - [2026-09] Industry muscle remains intact and unified behind the fix: The FAIR BET Act, which has bipartisan support from 25 co-sponsors, also has backing from the American Gaming Association, MGM, Draft Kings, FanDuel, Caesars, Wynn, the Nevada Resort Association, and the National Thoroughbred Racing Association. This coalition gives House leadership and the Senate strong lobbying pressure to act before year-end. https://titus.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=5932 - [2026-09] Even the chief Senate obstacle is framed as a matter of degree, not absolute veto: Sen. Lankford called the OBBB change "a pretty minor change in that tax policy," Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) is a pretty important character in all this... "It's not an unrealistic change," he said of OBBB. "It's a pretty minor change in that tax policy." — suggesting Senate Finance opposition is about scope/pay-fors, potentially satisfiable by negotiation rather than principle, leaving room for a compromise fix (e.g., partial restoration) to pass before the deadline. https://closingline.substack.com/p/senate-republican-opposes-rollback-of-gambling-tax-deduction - [2026-09-16] Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith's personal authorship and leadership role matters: H.R. 10357, introduced earlier this week by Missouri Rep. Jason Smith, contains other tax provisions as well, but Wednesday's strong support gives the repeal effort additional momentum. As committee chairman and a tax-writing principal, Smith controls scheduling leverage that prior sponsors (Titus, Cortez Masto) lacked. https://www.covers.com/industry/house-committee-advances-repeal-of-90-percent-gambling-loss-deduction-limit-sept-16-2026 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is H.R. 10357 riding the Dec. 11 government-funding deadline or a broader year-end tax/crypto package through the Nov. 9–Dec. 18 lame-duck window, leveraging its unusual procedural strength (committee passage 38-5, chairman sponsorship, revenue-raising crypto offsets, and unified industry lobbying) — a materially stronger setup than the two prior failed stand-alone attempts, even though full House passage, Senate passage, and presidential signature are all still outstanding as of Oct. 4, 2026. NOT FOUND: No scheduled House floor vote date for H.R. 10357; no Senate companion bill or Finance Committee markup; no explicit statement of White House/Trump intent to sign; no confirmed inclusion of the gambling provision in any December funding or NDAA vehicle.

YES means: a bill removing/changing OBBBA's 90% gambling-loss-deduction cap is signed into law (passes House, passes Senate, and is enacted) before Jan 1, 2027. - [2026-09-16] The Ways and Means Committee's own framing confirms the gambling fix is bundled as 98 pages of a broader crypto bill rather than a standalone measure; a Las Vegas Sun report notes "Wednesday's committee vote sends the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act to the full House, but passage is not guaranteed." Bundling with unrelated crypto-tax provisions creates additional veto points (crypto-skeptical members) beyond the gambling issue itself. - [2026-09-16] Even the lead sponsor concedes the process is unfinished and urges action, stating "The Republican House leadership must bring this provision to the floor, and the Senate must also expeditiously pass it if we are to prevent the tax from taking effect and harming gamblers nationwide." — language of advocacy, not confirmed scheduling. - [2026-09-17] CNN-sourced reporting establishes the House "is unlikely to return to session until after the November midterm elections," and the House Majority Leader's official calendar confirms "The House is in a district work period. Next votes are expected Monday, November 9." - [2025-11-18, calendar] The full-year House calendar shows only sporadic session weeks in the lame-duck window: both chambers in session Nov 9–10, 17–20 and 30, then Dec 1–3, 8–11 and 14–17 — roughly six working weeks total before the Jan 1, 2027 deadline, per the combined congressional calendar. - [2026-09-27] A key competing veto point: government funding itself "Federal funding runs to December 11... Lawmakers now face that task heading into the holiday season, a timing pattern that has repeated for several years running, with Congress historically waiting until close to a December deadline to finalize spending decisions." This means floor time in the exact window needed for H.R. 10357 will likely be consumed by must-pass appropriations/shutdown brinkmanship. - [2026-09-27] The same funding fight's outcome is tied to the midterms: "The outcome of the November 3 midterm elections is expected to shape how much leverage either party has heading into those December negotiations, since control of the House and Senate will influence who sets the terms of any full-year spending deal." A contentious post-election environment (possible change of House/Senate control) raises odds that non-essential tax fixes like the gambling provision get crowded out or renegotiated. - [2026-10 reporting] Senate-side resistance remains documented and unresolved: a Finance Committee Republican who helped write the original cap, Sen. James Lankford, is quoted "It's a pretty minor change in that tax policy," and reporting states "Committee consideration is not the same as passage... The Senate Finance Committee originally inserted the 90% cap into the OBBBA, and Lankford's public position suggests resistance there has not evaporated." - [2026-10 reporting] Procedural blocking has a track record in the Senate too: "Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto's effort to fast-track the FULL HOUSE Act through unanimous consent was blocked by Sen. Todd Young of Indiana on procedural grounds." A single senator can still halt expedited paths; no Senate companion has advanced through committee markup as of early October. - [2026-09-16] Fiscal scoring gives opponents a concrete revenue argument to resist in conference/floor negotiations: the Joint Committee on Taxation estimated the fix "is estimated to reduce federal revenue by $2 billion from 2027 through 2036." Earlier House GOP leadership cited a similar revenue rationale (~$1.1 billion over eight years) when blocking the amendment outright in January 2026, showing the same objection persists across multiple failed attempts. - [2026-09-16] Even sympathetic industry coverage treats enactment as uncertain rather than likely: "Committee consideration is not the same as passage. The Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act still needs to clear Ways and Means, pass the full House, survive the Senate, and be signed into law. Each of those steps carries uncertainty." - [2026-09-16] A sibling prediction-market data point (different deadline, not this contract) shows the issue was still seen as a coin-flip even after committee passage: traders on a gambling-repeal market were "implying a 48% chance of repeal by April 1, 2027, as of Wednesday's committee action" — i.e., even with a longer runway (three extra months past this question's Jan 1, 2027 deadline), market-implied odds were below even money. - [Track record] Two prior standalone repeal vehicles (FAIR BET Act in Jan 2026 and again in Apr 2026) were blocked in House Rules/committee before ever reaching the floor, and a Senate unanimous-consent attempt was separately blocked — establishing a pattern of repeated procedural failure that the current bill must still overcome at two additional stages (House floor, Senate floor) it has not yet reached. BOTTOM LINE: Status-quo inertia favors NO: H.R. 10357 has only cleared one of at least three remaining hurdles (House floor, Senate passage, signature), the House has limited session days left before Jan 1, 2027, those days will be dominated by a Dec. 11 government-funding fight tied to unresolved midterm-election outcomes, and a sitting Senate Finance Committee Republican who helped author the original cap remains openly opposed — a combination consistent with the two prior repeal attempts that failed outright. NOT FOUND: No scheduled House floor vote date for H.R. 10357; no Senate Finance Committee markup date or companion-bill vote; no public statement from Senate Majority Leader Thune or President Trump on whether/when this would be prioritized or signed; no post-Sept.-16 update on whether Lankford's opposition has softened or hardened.