Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

- [2026-10-03] AAA's national average regular gas price is $4.3807 as of 10/3/26, per AAA's live national tracker. https://gasprices.aaa.com/ - [2026-10-01] AAA reported the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline dropped nearly 7 cents from last week to $4.41 , following a record-setting September at the pump . https://newsroom.aaa.com/2026/10/national-average-dips-following-record-setting-september/ - [2026-10-01] AAA confirmed September's monthly average was $4.33, 50 cents higher than the previous September record of $3.83 set in 2023 , while noting crude oil prices have dipped back into the $90 per barrel range, lowering the national average, but overall gas prices remain the highest they've ever been for this time of year . https://newsroom.aaa.com/2026/10/national-average-dips-following-record-setting-september/ - [2026-09-24] AAA reported the national average hit $4.48 per gallon, the highest the national average has ever been for this time of year , attributed to lingering volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and the high cost of crude oil . https://newsroom.aaa.com/2026/09/national-average-climbs-nearly-5-cents-since-last-week/ - [2026-05-21] AAA's record calendar-year high so far was set on Memorial Day, when the national average for a gallon of regular was at $4.56, up 3 cents over last week and $1.38 higher than this time last year — still below the $4.60 threshold. https://gasprices.aaa.com/memorial-day-weekend-gas-prices-reach-four-year-highs/ - [2026-09-17] AAA noted the national average of $4.43 was inching closer to this year's record high of $4.56 set on May 21 , and compared it to the all-time high for the national average of $5.01 set on June 14, 2022 — confirming $4.60 has never been reached in 2026. https://newsroom.aaa.com/2026/09/pump-prices-keep-climbing-as-crude-oil-remains-high-2/ - [2026-09-08] LendingTree/AAA data showed the national average reached $4.15 per gallon on Sept. 8, 2026, up 29.7% from a year earlier but 7.3% below the recent peak of $4.48 per gallon in May (note: this source's "May peak" figure of $4.48 differs slightly from AAA's own $4.56 record). https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/study/us-gas-prices/ - [2026-10-02] Choose Energy/AAA data confirmed drivers in the U.S. paid an average of $4.40 per gallon for regular gasoline as of October 2, a monthly increase of 6% from the September 4 level. https://www.chooseenergy.com/data-center/cost-of-driving-by-state/ - [2026-10-04] NBC News tracker noted average gas prices have driven strain nationally, stating average gas prices have increased more than a dollar since the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran , and since mid-May, the average national gas price has declined by around 10 cents, though it is still up more than a dollar per gallon since the start of the war . https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/gas-prices-iran-war-state-national-cost-trump-rcna265835 - [2026-04-02] AAA confirmed the national average first exceeded $4/gallon this week for the first time since August 2022, with today's average of $4.08 ten cents higher than last week and $1.08 higher than a month ago , marking the start of the 2026 upward trend tied to Iran-related oil volatility. https://gasprices.aaa.com/for-the-first-time-in-four-years-national-average-exceeds-4-gallon/ - [2026-10-03] AAA's own "highest recorded average price" table on its live page still lists the all-time Regular Unleaded record as $5.0165 on 6/14/22, with no 2026 entry exceeding that, consistent with the $4.56 2026 peak remaining below the $4.60 threshold. https://gasprices.aaa.com/ BOTTOM LINE: As of October 3, 2026, AAA's national average sits at $4.38, down from a 2026 peak of $4.56 (May 21) and a record-setting September average of $4.33; the price has never reached $4.60 at any point in 2026 and is currently trending downward as crude oil eased to the $90s/barrel, making the $4.60 threshold require a fresh, sizable spike (e.g., renewed Strait of Hormuz disruption) before year-end to trigger Yes. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any single-day AAA national average reading above $4.56 (the Memorial Day 2026 high) at any point this year through October 3, 2026; no confirmed forward-looking refinery/supply-shock catalyst scheduled for Q4 2026 that would push prices toward $4.60.

- [2026-10-03] AAA's national average for regular gasoline stood at $4.41/gal on Oct 3, 2026, down from a record-setting September monthly average of $4.33, which itself was "50 cents higher than the previous September record of $3.83 set in 2023." The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline dropped nearly 7 cents from last week to $4.41, following a record-setting September at the pump, with the monthly average $4.33, 50 cents higher than the previous September record of $3.83 set in 2023. - [2026-05-07] The highest confirmed AAA national average so far during the current market window (opened Mar 24, 2026) was reached in mid-May 2026, when AAA reported drivers seeing another sharp increase at the pump, with the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline rising 25 cents for the second consecutive week to $4.55 , with the day's reading at $4.558 — still short of the $4.60 line. https://gasprices.aaa.com/national-average-rises-25-cents-for-second-straight-week/ - [2026-09-28] A scenario-forecasting tracker site reports the 2026 "high was $4.55 on 21 May," confirming AAA's own figure and that the national average has not yet crossed $4.60 at any point this year. https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/forecast/ - [2026-09-18] Historically, the $4.60 threshold has been breached only once in more than three decades of weekly EIA/AAA data: in 2022, when prices hit an all-time nominal high of "$5.01 per gallon, set in 2022" after Russia's invasion of Ukraine; the 2008 spike peaked lower, around $4.11. https://worldoilmonitor.com/gas-price-history - [2026-09-29] One industry tracker's three-scenario model (not a formal survey) weights outcomes as: de-escalation (~12%, year-end ~$3.80), sustained standoff/base case (~45%, year-end ~$4.60), and escalation (~43%, year-end ~$6.10), reflecting an unusually wide and bimodal distribution of outside views for 2026 given the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption. BASE CASE (~45%). Talks continue without a verified reopening, strikes stay intermittent, and Brent holds roughly $95–110. The pump price holds near today's $4.48 and edges up into winter as heating-oil demand competes for distillate. Year-end ~$4.60. - [2026-09-09] The U.S. Energy Information Administration's official Short-Term Energy Outlook, a primary government forecast source, projected in its September 2026 edition that regular gasoline would average $3.84/gal for all of 2026, "against a national average of $4.47 the week of September 28, 2026" — i.e., the government's own central forecast trajectory implies prices well below $4.60 on an annual-average basis, though it does not preclude a brief weekly spike above that level. https://usgasgauge.com/gas-price-forecast - [2026-09-09] The EIA outlook was revised sharply upward through 2026 versus earlier-year projections: as of a prior July 2026 STEO, the 2026 annual forecast had been just $3.64/gal, later revised "5.5% higher" by September — showing that EIA's own track record this cycle has been one of repeated upward revisions as the Hormuz crisis persisted, undermining confidence in any single forecast's stability. https://truedrivingcost.com/articles/gas-price-forecast-2026-2027 - [2026-10-04] Seasonal base rate: across 26 years of EIA weekly data since 2000, the national average has historically climbed from a January low to a spring/summer peak in 25 of those years, then eased in fall/winter — a pattern that argues against a fresh push toward $4.60 in Q4 absent a new shock. Across 26 full years of our EIA weekly data since 2000, the national average has climbed from a January low toward a spring/summer peak in 25 of those years, peaking around June before easing in the fall — once the costlier summer-grade fuel requirement lifts in mid-September. So the calendar leans toward firmer prices into summer and softer prices afterward. - [2026-09-28] Counter-seasonal pressure exists this cycle: diesel/distillate markets, not gasoline per se, are the most stretched part of the barrel, with diesel hitting a record "$6.53 on 22 September" and remaining near records into winter — a dynamic that historically (e.g., 2008, 2022) has sometimes bled into gasoline prices with a lag as refiners reallocate output. https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/forecast/ - [2026-01-29/2026-02-26] Earlier in the same market year, before the Hormuz shock, AAA reported typical low-season prices around $2.87-$2.98, illustrating how far prices have moved from the pre-crisis base rate and how unusual the current $4.3-4.5 range is relative to normal winter/spring seasonality. WASHINGTON, D C (January 29, 2026) – The winter storm that wreaked havoc on most of the nation has led to supply disruptions and pushed up the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline to $2.87. BOTTOM LINE: The historical base rate for the U.S. national average crossing $4.60 is very low (only once since 2000, in 2022, reaching $5.01), and even during 2026's unprecedented Hormuz-driven spike the confirmed AAA peak has been $4.558 (May 21), never reaching $4.60; official EIA forecasts point to prices easing into Q4/winter, but an independent scenario model gives roughly even-to-higher odds (45% base case ≈$4.60, 43% escalation ≫$4.60) that a renewed supply shock could push the average to or past that level by Dec 31, 2026. NOT FOUND: No betting-market or polling-based track record specifically for this Kalshi contract or similar "$4.60 by date X" contracts in past years; no authoritative tally of how many times (if any) weekly AAA data has approached but stayed just under a round-number threshold like $4.60 historically, beyond the 2022 episode.

YES means: AAA's national average for regular gasoline rises above $4.60/gallon at some point between now and Dec 31, 2026. - [2026-10-01] Talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordering Iran's delegation out of the country, and Trump called Iran's latest offer "not good enough" and, asked about escalation, answered: "Possible. We have a lot of weapons. You know, we've been stocking up for the last six months." https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/02/brent-oil-is-back-above-100-as-a-third-aircraft-carrier-heads-to-the-middle-east/ - [2026-10-01] Brent crude closed at $102.31 a barrel, up $4.28, and US crude at $92.87, up $2.45 in a single session, driven by two simultaneous supply shocks (Iran talks collapse plus a Chinese export halt). https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/02/brent-oil-is-back-above-100-as-a-third-aircraft-carrier-heads-to-the-middle-east/ - [2026-10-01] A third U.S. carrier group is reportedly deploying to the Middle East: the USS Theodore Roosevelt left San Diego for the Middle East, making it the third US carrier in the region, with 9,000 to 10,000 more troops due by November 30, 2026 , signaling a real risk of further military escalation before year-end. https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/02/brent-oil-is-back-above-100-as-a-third-aircraft-carrier-heads-to-the-middle-east/ - [2026-10-02] Attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are intensifying rather than fading: UKMTO reported a tanker struck by an "unknown projectile" while transiting outbound, which " Four tankers have recently been hit by projectiles in the critical waterway, bringing the total to five with Friday's incident, UKMTO said. " https://www.arabnews.com/middle-east/tanker-struck-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-3004312 - [2026-10-02] A maritime intelligence tracker documented an accelerating pattern of strikes, noting " Four Tankers Struck Transiting Dark Off Musandam... The blacklist grew by four entries between 14–28 September, reaching 81 vessels total. " https://insights.windward.ai/ - [2026-10-02] China added a second supply-side shock by halting fuel exports: " PetroChina canceled October gasoline and jet fuel shipments as Chinese refiners suspended fuel exports. " a product-market shock that, per the article, removes finished fuel from the market faster than a crude-only shock. https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/02/brent-oil-is-back-above-100-as-a-third-aircraft-carrier-heads-to-the-middle-east/ - [2026-09-25] Physical oil market stress independent of pure sentiment is visible in the futures curve: as of HSBC's report, " Futures backwardation remains steep, Dated Brent is trading roughly $17 per barrel above the front-month ICE contract, and refining margins, while off their records, stay materially elevated. " This structural tightness — not just headline risk — supports durable high prices into Q4. https://discoveryalert.com/analysis/oil-price-prediction-2027-brent-october-2026/ - [2026-09-30] Reuters-polled analysts have been revising 2026 oil forecasts upward as the crisis drags on: " Analysts have sharply raised their 2026 oil price forecasts as prolonged disruption in the Gulf keeps supply risks elevated despite recovering exports... a new Reuters poll putting Brent crude at an average of $89.05 per barrel this year, up from $85.08 just a month ago. " https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Price-Forecasts-Jump-as-Hormuz-Disruption-Drags-On.html - [2026-09-09] EIA's own September STEO already shows a historic upward revision trajectory this cycle, projecting a retail gasoline price of $3.84/gallon for 2026 as an annual average — far above its pre-war forecasts near $2.90 — confirming the government's own model keeps revising higher as the Hormuz crisis persists, which is the same dynamic that could push a fresh weekly spike past $4.60. - [2026-09-22] Diesel/distillate markets remain the most acute stress point and could spill into gasoline: the global-energy-flow tracker noted diesel " crossed $6.00 for the first time on 11 September, set a record $6.53 on 22 September, and was $6.45 on 28 September ," reflecting refinery reallocation pressures that historically (2008, 2022) have bled into gasoline with a lag. - [2026-10-03] Forward-looking oil price models now point meaningfully above current levels into Q4/Q1: Trading Economics projects Brent to trade at " 113.44 USD/BBL by the end of this quarter... and we estimate it to trade at 123.36 in 12 months time ," a scenario that, if realized, would almost certainly push AAA's national average through $4.60 given the ~$90/bbl crude level that already produced a $4.56 peak in May. - [2026-10-03] Industry crisis-response measures underscore how severe officials view the situation: among the oilprice.com headline stream from the same week were reports of a " G7 Moves to Release 100 Million Barrels to Counter Diesel Crisis "-style emergency stockpile action and "U.S. Taps Strategic Oil Reserve Again as Diesel Tops $6," signaling policymakers are treating the fuel shortage as an active, worsening emergency rather than a resolved one. BOTTOM LINE: The single most plausible path to YES is a continuation/escalation of the ongoing Hormuz crisis — further tanker attacks, a full U.S.–Iran talks collapse, and a third-carrier military buildup — combined with China's fuel-export halt and tight refining margins, pushing Brent from ~$100-102 (Oct 1-3) toward the $110-120+ range some forecasters already project for Q4/early 2027; since the 2026 AAA peak of $4.56 was reached with Brent near $90-100 in May, a sustained move to $110+ plausibly breaches $4.60 before Dec 31. NOT FOUND: No single source confirms a specific date on which AAA's national average is forecast to cross $4.60; no confirmation that the reported third-carrier deployment or an actual Strait closure (versus intermittent attacks on already-reduced "dark" traffic) has materialized as of Oct 4, 2026.

YES means: AAA's U.S. national average regular gasoline price rises above $4.60/gallon at some point between now (Oct 4, 2026) and Dec 31, 2026. - [2026-10-03] AAA's live tracker puts the national average at $4.3807, and the price has been falling for two straight weeks, meaning the market needs a net +22¢ move just to touch the $4.60 line, a bigger jump than any single recent weekly change reported. https://gasprices.aaa.com/ - [2026-10-01] AAA's own national-average reporting confirms the week-over-week trend is downward, not upward, the week before Q4 begins: "the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline dropped nearly 7 cents from last week to $4.41." https://gasprices.aaa.com/2026/10/ - [2026-10-03] The crude benchmark that most directly feeds U.S. refinery costs, WTI, fell to $91.11/barrel (down $1.76 on the day) even as geopolitical headlines stayed tense, showing the U.S.-relevant crude price is well off its 2026 highs and not accelerating toward a fresh gasoline shock. https://thedailystar.net/business/news/oil-settles-lower-after-europe-agrees-tap-diesel-reserves-4289166 - [2026-10-03] The same report notes EU governments agreed to release additional diesel and crude stockpiles (a French proposal for "50 million barrels of diesel" and "50 million barrels of crude oil" from IEA members), a deliberate policy lever aimed at cooling refined-product tightness that could otherwise spill into gasoline prices. https://thedailystar.net/business/news/oil-settles-lower-after-europe-agrees-tap-diesel-reserves-4289166 - [2026-10-03] An analyst quoted in the same piece frames the core 2026 stress as refined-product supply, not crude availability, since "Middle East flows [are] recovering," a shift that argues the acute driver behind this year's gasoline spike is already easing rather than intensifying into Q4. https://thedailystar.net/business/news/oil-settles-lower-after-europe-agrees-tap-diesel-reserves-4289166 - [2025-10-02] AAA's own reporting from the comparable point in the prior year illustrates a reliable seasonal mechanism working against a Q4 spike: stations switch to "winter-blend gasoline which is cheaper to produce," a structural tailwind for lower pump prices into Q4 regardless of crude moves. https://gasprices.aaa.com/october-begins-with-steady-pump-prices/ - [2026-10-01] Crowd-sourced prediction markets tracking the national average show traders assign only modest odds to much smaller upside moves than needed for $4.60: a Manifold market on whether the average hits "$5.000 or more on any day in October 2026" was priced at just 8% chance, and even "$4.750 or more... in October 2026" carries no majority support. https://manifold.markets/Jack1/what-will-the-us-average-gas-price-2dqSzIdSpE - [2026-09-09] The U.S. government's own forecasting agency, EIA, projects a 2026 annual average of $3.84/gal (per the September 2026 STEO), well under $4.60, and its Q4 2026 Brent price path, cited in a secondary synthesis of that STEO, eases to "$90.66/b by Q4 2026 as flows recover" rather than spiking further. https://usgasgauge.com/gas-price-forecast - [2026-08-12] Even during the most acute phase of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, EIA forecast Brent would average only "$87 a barrel in 2026," and real-world Brent/WTI readings this week (~$102/$91) have not forced AAA's national average anywhere near $4.60, underscoring that this specific threshold has proven durable even under severe stress. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/8/12/oil-prices-rise-as-attacks-dent-hopes-for-strait-of-hormuz-reopening - [2026-04-08] History within this very market year shows spikes have repeatedly reversed quickly: Brent "fell almost 14% to $94.47 a barrel" in a single session after an earlier April ceasefire announcement, demonstrating that de-escalation headlines can erase gains fast and that no single shock has proven durable enough to hold the national average above its 2026 ceiling of $4.56-4.58. https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-news/company--news/oil,-gas-prices-plunge-as-us,-iran-agree-2-week-truce BOTTOM LINE: Every structural and seasonal force in play — falling WTI, strategic product releases, the winter-blend cost shift, and EIA's own downward-sloping Q4 price path — points away from a fresh breach of $4.60, a level the national average has never reached even at the peak of 2026's unprecedented Hormuz-driven crisis (May 21 high of ~$4.56-4.58), so the path to Yes requires an entirely new, larger shock than anything seen so far this year. NOT FOUND: No confirmed news of any new Hormuz closure, major refinery outage, or hurricane threat scheduled for Q4 2026 that would plausibly deliver the +22¢ jump needed from current levels; no primary-source October 2026 STEO (post-dating the Sept 9 edition) was located to confirm whether EIA's Q4 forecast has been revised since early September.