Will NYC subway ridership reach 90% of the pre-Covid average before Jan 1, 2027? — 4.19 million

- [2026-04-16] The NY State Comptroller's office reported that in 2025, the average weekend subway ridership was at 89% of the 2019 level, up from 80% in 2024, while average weekday subway ridership was at 74% of the 2019 level in 2025, up from 68% in 2024 . This implies a blended systemwide average well below the 90%/4.19M threshold as of 2025. (https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2026/04/dinapoli-mta-weekend-ridership-recovery-outpaces-weekdays-across-board) - [2026-07-10] MTA's own official ridership summary for 2025 states the subway has a daily ridership of over 4 million and bus has a daily ridership of approximate 1.4 million representing 73% and 65%, respectively, of pre-pandemic ridership levels , i.e. 2025 average subway ridership was ~73% of 2019, far short of 90%. (https://www.mta.info/agency/new-york-city-transit/ridership/2025) - [2025-09-16] Governor Hochul announced a then-record 7-day subway total of 26.8 million riders (Sept 8–14, 2025), with 4.1 million subway riders on Monday, 4.44 million on Tuesday, 4.48 million on Wednesday, 4.51 million on Thursday, and 4.2 million on Friday — a weekly average (~3.83M/day including weekend) still well under the 4.19M (90%) threshold. (https://www.mta.info/press-release/icymi-governor-hochul-announces-record-7-day-subway-ridership-268-million-rides-last) - [2025-12-05] MTA/Hochul announced single-day post-pandemic records of more than 4.6 million customers on December 3 & 4 , showing peak weekday ridership approaching, but not sustaining, the 4.19M 7-day-average bar. (https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-announces-record-subway-ridership-46-million-riders-and-best-november-subway) - [2026-09-23/2026-09-28] The subway set a new all-time post-pandemic single-day record of 4,696,692 rides on September 23, its busiest day since before the pandemic and a new record for the years since , during the UN General Assembly ("Gridlock Alert") week. (https://www.timeout.com/newyork/news/the-nyc-subway-just-had-its-busiest-day-since-before-the-pandemic-092826) - [2026-09-25] Reporting on the same record noted the tally sets a new post-pandemic ridership record, surpassing the previous high of 4.61 million riders set in December 2025 , confirming this was an exceptional, event-driven single day rather than a new sustained weekly baseline. (https://www.6sqft.com/4-7-million-people-rode-the-nyc-subway-in-a-single-day-this-week-a-new-post-pandemic-record/) - [2026-04-16] MTA weekday service and ridership analysis found average weekend subway ridership in Manhattan in 2025 was at 92 percent of the 2019 level, while Brooklyn and Queens weekend ridership had reached 90 percent of 2019 ridership, but the Bronx only reached 66 percent, showing the recovery remains uneven across boroughs — meaning even the strongest weekend borough markets are only now crossing 90%, while systemwide weekday levels remain much lower. (https://www.osc.ny.gov/files/reports/osdc/pdf/report-2-2027.pdf) - [2026-09-23] No public MTA or Governor's office release in the past 30 days reports a 7-day (weekly) ridership average anywhere near 4.19 million; all records cited are single-day peaks, not sustained weekly averages. - [2026-10-03 (today)] No evidence found of any MTA dashboard or press release showing a 7-day average ridership figure at or above 4.19 million at any point in 2026. BOTTOM LINE: As of early October 2026, NYC subway ridership has hit new single-day post-pandemic peaks (up to ~4.7M on Sept 23, an event-driven outlier), but the sustained weekly/annual averages remain in the roughly 73–85% range of the 2019 baseline (annual 2025 average ~73% per MTA; weekday ~74%, weekend ~89% per NYS Comptroller) — well short of the 90% (4.19M 7-day average) threshold, with no evidence a 7-day average near that level has yet occurred. NOT FOUND: An official MTA/Comptroller dataset showing a specific 7-day rolling average ridership figure for any week in 2026 (only single-day records and annual/quarterly percentage summaries were available); any MTA statement directly addressing progress toward a 90%-of-2019 or 4.19M weekly-average milestone.

- [2026-01-30] MTA's own annual summary shows 2025 average weekday subway ridership grew to 4,001,735 — 73% of 2019 levels — while 2025 total annual ridership reached approximately 75% of the pre-pandemic baseline, with weekend ridership stronger at 88%. 2025 subway ridership increased to 1,282 million, up 7.3% year-over-year and reaching approximately 75% of 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Average weekday ridership grew 7.1% to 4.002 million (73% of 2019 levels)... Weekend ridership increased 9.3% to 4.83 million (88% of 2019 levels). https://www.mta.info/agency/new-york-city-transit/ridership/2025 - [2026-01-02] Governor Hochul's year-end release confirms 2025 subway ridership hit 85 percent of pre-pandemic levels , with the single-day record of 4.65 million riders occurring only once, on December 11, 2025 (a 1-day peak, not a 7-day average). https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-highlights-record-breaking-year-performance-and-ridership-mta-2025 - [2026-04-01] Historical base-rate pattern from MTA's annual series shows decelerating year-over-year recovery gains in average weekday ridership (percent of 2019): 2020≈37%, 2021≈43%, 2022≈58%, 2023≈66%, 2024≈68%, 2025≈73% — i.e., annual gains shrank from ~15 percentage points (2021→2022) to just 2–5 points in the most recent two years, per MTA's published weekday-ridership table. https://www.mta.info/agency/new-york-city-transit/ridership/2025 - [2026-04-13] A spring 2026 report noted that except for New Year's Day, the 7-day ridership average on the subways has exceeded 3 million every day in 2025... That average has not been seen since before the COVID-19 pandemic struck New York City — illustrating that even surpassing a 3M 7-day average was treated as a milestone, far below the 4.19M threshold needed for this market. https://www.amny.com/news/congestion-pricing-mta-data-traffic-subway-ridership-04132025/ - [2026-04-xx] Official long-range planning consistently projects a plateau well short of 90%: MTA/McKinsey-informed projections In 2025, ridership reached 76.5% to 85% of 2019 levels... MTA planning assumptions, informed by McKinsey projections, anticipate ridership will establish a new baseline around 80% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2026 , far below the 90% bar this contract requires. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/financials/kpis/will-nyc-subway-ridership-reach-its-pre-covid-average - [2026-07-14] Independent analytics firm Octagon, modeling this exact Kalshi market, put its own probability estimate for the 4.19M (90%) outcome at only 27.1%, versus 65.0%/27% model estimates cited elsewhere, while the thinly-traded market itself showed a "modest but consistent decline in perceived probability" from 62% to 57% through mid-2026 — both far from certainty and reflecting persistent skepticism that the 90% bar is reachable this cycle. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/financials/kpis/will-nyc-subway-ridership-reach-its-pre-covid-average - [2025-11-xx] The earlier McKinsey-based consultancy projection commissioned by the MTA, cited by Gothamist, put subway recovery at only 80% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2026 under an optimistic "continued return to office" scenario — a full decade's worth of base-rate forecasting consistently undershooting the 90% mark required here. https://gothamist.com/news/nyc-subway-ridership-hits-new-milestone-but-still-far-short-of-pre-pandemic-levels - [2022-11-xx] Even earlier (2022) IBO/McKinsey base-case forecasts projected subway ridership reaching only 81 percent of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2026 , showing that official forecasters have for years clustered around 77-85%, never near 90%, for the 2026 horizon. https://ibo.nyc.ny.us/iboreports/print-on-track-for-recovery-an-examination-of-the-mtas-pandemic-ridership-and-user-revenue-november-2022.pdf - [2025-12-17] MTA's own December 2025 board presentation put subway ridership recovery at 85% of 2019 levels for that month (the system's seasonal high point), still 5 percentage points below the 90% threshold needed, even in the best month of the year. https://www.mta.info/document/194491 BOTTOM LINE: Across every available base rate — MTA's own multi-year ridership series, McKinsey/MTA long-range planning forecasts (repeated in 2022 and again in 2025), and an independent market-modeling firm's probability estimate (~27%) — recovery has consistently plateaued in the 73-85% range with decelerating annual gains, never approaching the 90% (4.19M) bar; historical patterns and official forecasts both imply this outcome is unlikely to be reached before January 2027, though not impossible given continued congestion-pricing-driven growth. NOT FOUND: No official MTA or Comptroller forecast explicitly modeling a 90%-of-2019 scenario by end-2026/2027; no historical precedent of a 7-day average reaching 4.19M since the pandemic (highest reported 7-day/single-day figures remain below this level, with the single-day record of 4.65M achieved just once in Dec 2025).

YES means: NYC subway ridership records an official seven-day average of at least 4.19 million rides on any day before January 1, 2027 (i.e., a sustained weekly average crosses 90% of the 2019 baseline), not merely a single-day peak. - [2026-01-05] Congestion pricing's first full year produced a structural, not just cyclical, ridership boost: bus and subway ridership increased 7%, Long Island Rail Road ridership went up 9% and Metro-North ridership increased 6%, compared to the prior year , confirming this is an ongoing driver still compounding in 2026. https://www.thecity.nyc/2026/01/05/congestion-pricing-hochul-mamdani-mta/ - [2026-03-18] The magnitude of 2025's gain accelerated versus prior years: almost 93 million more subway trips were taken in 2025 than in 2024, bringing overall ridership to 1.3 billion, this 7.7 percent rider increase was up from 3.7 percent in 2024 — i.e., the annual growth rate roughly doubled rather than continuing to decelerate, the opposite of the "plateau" narrative in the base-rate dimension. https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/subway-ridership-doubled-during-congestion-pricings-1st-year-new-report-finds - [2026-03-18] Weekend ridership is growing even faster than system-wide averages, the segment most important for pushing the 7-day average toward the 90% bar: weekend ridership grew at larger rates than the overall citywide average… total weekend ridership grew by 9.4 percent – a total increase of nearly 22 million riders . https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/subway-ridership-doubled-during-congestion-pricings-1st-year-new-report-finds - [2026-09-23] Single-day peaks are not only recurring but climbing in magnitude and frequency: the September 23 record of 4,696,692 rides... its busiest day since before the pandemic and a new record for the years since came less than ten months after the prior December 2025 peak, and specifically tops the milestones the MTA was celebrating last October, when the subway carried 4.52 million riders on October 22 and 4.55 million the following day — showing a steadily rising ceiling for the system's busiest days, roughly one full year apart, each record larger. https://timeout.com/newyork/news/the-nyc-subway-just-had-its-busiest-day-since-before-the-pandemic-092826 - [2025-09-16] The September 2025 "back to school" week already demonstrated an entire five-day run above the 4M mark, with 4.1 million riders on the subway on Monday; 4.44 million on Tuesday; 4.48 million on Wednesday; 4.51 million on Thursday; and 4.2 million riders on Friday — a weekday pattern that, if it recurs with modest weekend strength (Manhattan/Brooklyn/Queens already near 90–92% on weekends per the April 2026 OSC report), would put a holiday or special-event week within striking distance of a 4.19M seven-day average. https://www.mta.info/press-release/icymi-governor-hochul-announces-record-7-day-subway-ridership-268-million-rides-last - [2026-09-21] The OSC's own September-updated tracker shows citywide recovery has remained fairly stable since May 2023, fluctuating between 65.7 percent and 71 percent of pre-pandemic ridership though August 2024, then between 72.3 percent and as high as 80.8 percent in December 2025 — meaning the single best month on record (December 2025) already reached 80.8%, and that December is also the month containing the highest-ever single-day figures, suggesting the holiday season specifically (not an average month) is the plausible venue for a 90% breakthrough week. - [2026-09-21] Notably, even the MTA's own planners may be underestimating momentum: the OSC tracker states as of February 2026, the MTA anticipates that ridership will reach 78 percent of 2019 levels in 2026 and stay at about that level through 2029, so far in 2026, however, ridership levels have not yet sustained these levels, although they remain close with about half the calendar year remaining — the official baseline itself is a monthly/annual average, which is compatible with short, intense weekly spikes (holidays, UN week, parades, playoff runs) still reaching a 90% seven-day peak even while the annual average sits far lower. - [2025-12-05] The single highest days recorded so far (more than 4.6M on consecutive December 3–4, 2025 days, per the prior report) occurred during ordinary December shopping/holiday weekdays, not a one-off special event, suggesting the December 2026 holiday season — Thanksgiving travel, Macy's parade crowds, holiday shopping, and NYE — is the most replicable and most likely single stretch for a 4.19M 7-day average, especially layered onto a full added year of congestion-pricing-driven baseline growth. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is a holiday-season or major-event week in November–December 2026 (Thanksgiving/parade crowds, peak holiday shopping, New Year's Eve) riding on top of congestion pricing's continuing ~7%+ annual ridership lift and a documented pattern of ever-higher single-day peaks (Oct 2025 → Dec 2025 → Sept 2026, each record larger), potentially compounding with already-high weekend recovery (90%+ in several boroughs) to produce a genuine seven-day average at or above 4.19 million — a feat the system has approached (weekdays in the 4.1–4.5M range for five straight days in Sept 2025) but not yet documented achieving across a full week including weekends. NOT FOUND: Any MTA/Comptroller publication reporting an actual 7-day rolling average figure (as opposed to single-day or monthly/annual percentages) for any week in 2026; any MTA statement projecting or targeting a 90%/4.19M weekly-average milestone before 2027.

YES means: NYC subway ridership reaches a sustained 7-day (weekly) average of at least 4.19 million riders (90% of the 2019 daily average of 4.65 million) at some point between now and Dec 31, 2026. - [2026-09-28] The MTA's own Finance Committee Financial Performance Report (newest official data available, covering August 2026) shows NYCT Subway Paid Ridership at 72.1%... as a percentage of pre-COVID levels for August 2026 , and the subway-specific actual line sits at Aug-26, 75.5% of 2019 — both far below the 90% threshold, confirming no structural break upward through late summer 2026. - [2026-09-28] The MTA's own financial plan forecast line for NYCT Subway Paid Ridership, which embeds the agency's own internal planning assumptions through 2026, projects only gradual increases that stay in the roughly 75-82% band through year-end 2026, never approaching 90%. - [2026-09-21] The NYS Comptroller's Subway Recovery Tracker (most recently updated page, data through mid-2026) states that subway ridership recovery citywide has remained fairly stable since May 2023, fluctuating between 65.7 percent and 71 percent of pre-pandemic ridership though August 2024, then between 72.3 percent and as high as 80.8 percent in December 2025, with a slight decline in the following months. As of February 2026, the MTA anticipates that ridership will reach 78 percent of 2019 levels in 2026 and stay at about that level through 2029. - [2026-09-21] The same tracker explicitly notes so far in 2026, however, ridership levels have not yet sustained these levels, although they remain close with about half the calendar year remaining — i.e., even the 78% MTA target (well under 90%) has not been durably hit through two-thirds of 2026. - [2026-09-21] Weekday office-driven ridership remains the binding constraint: citywide baseline ridership for each month is the aggregate of all station baseline ridership for that month , and the OSC data show no evidence weekday recovery (historically ~10-15 points behind weekends) has closed the gap needed to push a systemwide 7-day average above 90%. - [2026-04-16] Even in the best-performing weekend submarket, average weekend subway ridership in Manhattan in 2025 was at 92% of the 2019 level, while Brooklyn and Queens weekend ridership had reached 90% of 2019 ridership — meaning only two of five boroughs' weekend ridership has crossed 90%, while weekday ridership (80% of total trips per the Comptroller) remains the much larger drag. - [2026 (NY economic snapshot)] Office-based commuting capacity, a structural driver of weekday subway demand, remains capped: Kastle return-to-office improved in January and has increased 5.7 percentage points over the past year... the citywide office vacancy rate declined for the sixth time in seven quarters and is now at a three-year low of 13.8% — i.e., office recovery is improving only incrementally (single-digit percentage points per year), not enough to drive a sudden subway surge to 90%. - [2026-09-23] The single-day post-pandemic record (4.70M, UN General Assembly "Gridlock Alert" week) that colleagues flagged was an event-driven spike, not indicative of a new sustained baseline; MTA's own August 2026 monthly actuals (75.5% subway, 72.1% blended NYCT/rail) establish that normal conditions remain far below the 4.19M/90% bar even after that spike. - [2026-09-28] No MTA document in the past 30 days — including the September 28, 2026 Finance Committee report, the most current official ridership data available before the Jan 1, 2027 deadline — shows any realized or forecast path to a sustained 90% (4.19M) weekly average before year-end; the agency's own forward curve (the blue "Financial Plan Forecast" line) stays within the 72-82% band through the remainder of 2026. - [Historical pattern] The MTA's own multi-year forecasting record, from 2022 to 2026, has consistently clustered projections for 2026 ridership recovery in the high-70s to low-80s percentage range, never in the 90% zone, reflecting institutional consensus that structural remote-work/hybrid-work effects on weekday commuting are durable rather than transient — a pattern unbroken by the latest (Sept 2026) data. BOTTOM LINE: The most current primary-source MTA data (August 2026 actuals, published September 28, 2026) show subway ridership at only ~72-76% of 2019 levels, and the agency's own internal financial-plan forecast keeps it in the mid-70s to low-80s through year-end 2026 — with the Comptroller's tracker confirming the MTA's own 78% target for 2026 has not even been durably achieved yet; nothing in the record suggests a plausible mechanism for a 15-18 percentage-point jump to a sustained 90% (4.19M) 7-day average in the roughly three months remaining before the January 1, 2027 deadline. NOT FOUND: No MTA, Comptroller, or independent dataset showing any actual 7-day rolling average figure (as opposed to annual/monthly percentage or single-day peaks) at any point in 2026; no MTA statement directly addressing the specific 90%/4.19M milestone as a near-term target.