Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 30000 in 2026? — Above 30,000

- [2024-12] EGLE's official "Lead service line replacement progress" page (the explicit source cited in the Kalshi rules) shows annual statewide totals of Year 2021 (10,316), Year 2022 (16,392), Year 2023 (18,692), Year 2024 (24,521) lead/GPCL lines replaced — https://www.michigan.gov/egle/about/organization/drinking-water-and-environmental-health/community-water-supply/lead-and-copper-rule/lslr-progress - [2025-12-XX] EGLE's own 2025 End of Year Report corroborates the cumulative figure through 2024: "We are accelerating lead service line removal. 69,921 lead service lines have been replaced since 2019, with 30% more lines removed in 2024 compared to 2023." — https://www.michigan.gov/egle/-/media/Project/Websites/egle/Documents/Offices/Executive/Report-2025-EOY.pdf - [2025-12-10] A third-party dashboard (Planet Detroit/Safe Water Engineering, built directly from EGLE's Lead Service Line Replacement Reports 2021–2025) puts cumulative replacements at "98,253 lines replaced (16.9% progress) from 2021-2025" , implying roughly 28,300 lines were replaced in 2025 alone (98,253 minus the EGLE-confirmed 69,921 through 2024) — https://github.com/Planet-Detroit/lead-dashboard - [2026-07-31] EGLE's official GIS open-data layer underlying the dashboard was last annually updated July 31, 2026 (published Feb 2, 2026), meaning 2025 annual-report data has been compiled and is the most recent complete year on record as of today — https://gis-michigan.opendata.arcgis.com/maps/0a02f547c5074472a9e5bcda960d4947/about - [2025-12-18] EGLE's "Year in Review" post confirms continued momentum, citing "more lead service lines removed and increased inspections of public water systems" as a 2025 highlight, but does not give a precise 2025 total figure — https://www.michigan.gov/egle/newsroom/mi-environment/2025/12/18/year-in-review - [2026-08-13] Flint announced completion of all known lead service line replacements, with the city reporting "roughly 11,600 lines have been replaced out of almost 32,000 properties excavated and checked for lead pipes during the roughly $140 million effort" — this is a cumulative, city-level figure (not a 2026-specific statewide count) but signals one major contributor to statewide totals is winding down — https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/news/press-releases/2026/08/13/icymi-whitmer-mayor-sheldon-mark-milestone-completed-lead-service-line-replacement-in-flint - [2025-05-XX] EGLE's annual reporting deadline for each calendar year's ASLRR is fixed: "Water supplies with lead service lines or galvanized previously connected to lead service lines are required to submit an Annual Service Line Replacement Report to the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) by March 31 every year." This means the 2026-calendar-year figure will not be fully compiled/published until after March 31, 2027 — well before the market's July 1, 2027 close — https://www.michigan.gov/egle/-/media/Project/Websites/egle/Documents/Groups/SDWAC/Newsletters/Newsletter-05-2025-SDWAC.pdf - [2026-10 ongoing] Detroit's DWSD, one of the largest contributors, had scaled to "DWSD scales up lead service line replacement to 8,000 per year, thanks to $85M in EGLE grants" , suggesting continued high-volume output from the state's largest system going into 2026 — https://detroitmi.gov/news/dwsd-scales-lead-service-line-replacement-8000-year-thanks-85m-egle-grants BOTTOM LINE: The only year-by-year figures EGLE has published so far (2021–2024, confirmed again in EGLE's own Dec-2025 report) never reached 30,000 in a single year (peak 24,521 in 2024), and a credible reconstruction of 2025's total (~28,300) also falls short of 30,000; whether 2026's count crosses 30,000 is not yet knowable since that report isn't due to EGLE until March 31, 2027, but the strong upward trend (and large contributors like Detroit at ~8,000/yr) makes a modest increase past 30,000 for 2026 plausible, while Flint's 2026 completion removes one large source of future replacements. NOT FOUND: An official EGLE-published single-year number specifically for 2025 (only a cumulative 2021–2025 total was found via third-party dashboard); any official or leaked figure for calendar-year 2026 replacements (not yet due for reporting).

- [2026 EGLE webpage] EGLE's official tracker (data through 2024, cumulative since ASLRR began in 2021) shows a clear year-over-year upward trend in statewide lead/GPCL service line replacements: Year 2021 (10,316), Year 2022 (16,392), Year 2023 (18,692), Year 2024 (24,521) . This is the exact reference-class series the market resolution criterion draws on. - [2024-2025, EGLE statement] 69,921 lead service lines have been replaced since 2019, with 30% more lines removed in 2024 compared to 2023 — confirming the 2024 figure and showing an accelerating replacement pace rather than a plateau. - [2025-12-10, Great Lakes Now/Planet Detroit] Independent analysis of EGLE data found Michigan is simultaneously working to remove an estimated 580,030 lead and galvanized service lines statewide… About 11% — roughly 69,891 lines — were replaced from 2021 to 2024 , matching EGLE's own cumulative total and reinforcing the trend's momentum. - [Historical trajectory]: Annual totals rose from ~10.3k (2021) to ~24.5k (2024), an average annual increase of roughly 40-50%; extrapolating this trend (even conservatively, allowing for diminishing marginal growth) implies 2025 totals plausibly in the high-20s-to-30k range and 2026 totals likely exceeding 30,000 if the pace of investment continues. - [2024-05-13, EGLE press release] State-level funding commitment has grown sharply: Since Governor Whitmer took office, the state has invested more than $958 million in lead service line removals and has implemented the strongest lead and copper rule in the country , which underpins continued acceleration rather than slowdown. - [Detroit, largest single contributor] In May 2023, DWSD announced $100M in federal, state and local funding to help the city replace more than 5,000 lead service lines yearly , and the city later scaled to higher throughput, suggesting Detroit alone could contribute several thousand replacements per year toward the statewide 2026 total. - [2026-08-13, Whitmer/EGLE press release] Flint's program—one of the earliest and most mature—has essentially wound down: With the removal of last known active lead service line on July 31, 2026, roughly 11,600 lines have been replaced out of almost 32,000 properties excavated , meaning Flint will contribute little to new 2026 totals (a modest drag versus other systems still ramping up). - [Regulatory driver] Water suppliers must replace all lead service lines, both public and private, at an average rate of 5% per year, ensuring they are replaced within 20 years and at no direct cost to the resident , which creates a structural, legally mandated floor on replacement activity, not a discretionary pace—reducing the chance of sudden regression below 30,000. - [2025-12, Great Lakes Now] Caveat: Progress varies by water system, and many still lack complete inventories or are behind on required reporting , which could cause undercounting or delayed/incomplete submission of reports affecting the officially "compiled" EGLE total for a given year. - No official EGLE-published figure for calendar year 2025 (due to EGLE by March 31, 2026) or 2026 (due March 31, 2027) was found in public sources as of this research; the EGLE "LSLR progress" tracker page currently stops at 2024 data. BOTTOM LINE: The historical base rate shows a strong, consistent upward trajectory (10,316 → 16,392 → 18,692 → 24,521 from 2021-2024, roughly 35-50% average annual growth), driven by a legally mandated 5%/year replacement floor and heavy state/federal funding (Detroit scaling to thousands/year), which makes crossing 30,000 in a subsequent annual report a plausible continuation of trend rather than a departure from it — though Flint's program winding down removes one prior contributor and EGLE has not yet published 2025/2026 figures to confirm the trend held. NOT FOUND: An official EGLE-published total for calendar year 2025 or 2026 lead/GPCL service line replacements (reports due March 2026 and March 2027 respectively); any formal third-party forecast, poll, or betting market history specifically predicting this metric's 2026 value.

YES means: EGLE's officially compiled statewide total of lead/GPCL service lines fully replaced for calendar-year 2026 (to be published, per the ASLRR cycle, only after the March 31, 2027 reporting deadline) is reported as exceeding 30,000 lines. - [2026-05-21] The EPA announced Michigan's FY2026 Drinking Water State Revolving Fund lead-pipe allotment at **$143.5 million**, part of a $2.9B national tranche "to accelerate local efforts to find and replace toxic lead pipes," giving Michigan utilities fresh federal capital flowing specifically into calendar-2026 replacement work — https://www.waterworld.com/drinking-water-treatment/distribution/news/55379259/epa-announces-29-billion-for-lead-pipe-replacement-as-states-receive-2026-allotments - [2026-09-18] Jackson, Michigan reported it still has roughly 2,000 lead lines remaining in just one targeted neighborhood, part of a citywide push to take total lead services "from 9,000 to zero" , indicating a mid-sized system still has thousands of lines actively queued for 2026 replacement — https://greatlakesecho.org/2026/09/18/michigan-city-continues-push-to-replace-thousands-of-lead-water-service-lines/ - [2026-08-13] Even as Flint's program wound down, the state confirmed the city's final push continued into 2026, with "the removal of last known active lead service line on July 31, 2026, roughly 11,600 lines have been replaced out of almost 32,000 properties excavated" — meaning Flint's remaining 2026 activity (through July) still contributes some lines to the 2026 annual count before dropping off entirely thereafter — https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/news/press-releases/2026/08/13/icymi-whitmer-mayor-sheldon-mark-milestone-completed-lead-service-line-replacement-in-flint - [2025-12] EGLE's FY2025 End-of-Year report shows FY2025 grants specifically targeting large-volume replacement, including Kalamazoo's $89.2M award "Replacing 1,300 lead service lines and installing PFAS treatment" and Detroit's $35.4M award "Supporting lead line replacement and upgrading water mains" — new discrete funding specifically underwriting 2026-era replacement volume beyond the already-known Detroit $85M/8,000-per-year program — https://www.michigan.gov/egle/-/media/Project/Websites/egle/Documents/Offices/Executive/Report-2025-EOY.pdf - [2025-10-15] EGLE confirmed it is actively expanding the EPA's "Get the Lead Out" initiative into additional communities such as Ypsilanti, with EGLE's own Lead Service Line Replacement Specialist stating "many more communities need pipes safe from lead" and that full statewide replacement "will take time" — evidence the program is still actively onboarding new systems into higher-volume replacement rather than contracting — https://www.wemu.org/wemu-news/2025-10-15/egle-accelerates-epas-get-the-lead-out-initiative-in-ypsilanti - [mechanism] Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule imposes a binding regulatory floor: the Annual Service Line Replacement Report form itself specifies "Administrative rule R 325.10604f(6) requires water supplies to replace lead/GPCL service lines at a rate averaging five percent (5%) per year not to exceed 20 years... based on the number of known or presumed lead/GPCL service lines that existed in the distribution system as of January 1, 2021" — applied against EGLE's own confirmed base of roughly 580,000 statewide lines, a strict 5%/year floor alone implies ~29,000/year minimum once all systems are in full compliance, and growing compliance plus accelerating funding make crossing 30,000 for the first time in 2026 a straightforward continuation of the 2021-2024 trend (10,316→16,392→18,692→24,521). - [funding scale] EGLE's own May-2024 release stated the cumulative state investment had already reached "almost $1 billion invested in lead service line removals statewide" as of mid-2024, and that pool has only grown with FY2025/FY2026 EGLE and EPA awards layered on top, reinforcing capacity for throughput growth rather than a funding-driven slowdown — https://www.michigan.gov/egle/newsroom/mi-environment/2024/05/13/egle-invests-more-than-958-million-dollars-in-lead-service-line-removals-to-protect-public-health BOTTOM LINE: The clearest path to YES is simple trend continuation: statewide annual totals have risen every year 2021-2024 at 35-50%/year, independent reconstruction puts 2025 close to 28,000, and fresh FY2026 federal/state funding ($143.5M EPA allotment, EGLE's FY2025 grants to Kalamazoo/Detroit/Sault Ste. Marie) plus an expanding roster of actively-replacing systems (Jackson, Ypsilanti, Detroit at scale) make a modest further increase past 30,000 for calendar-2026 a plausible, trend-consistent outcome once EGLE compiles and publishes the figure after the March 31, 2027 ASLRR deadline. NOT FOUND: Any official EGLE-published single-year total for 2025 or any partial/interim count for 2026; no leaked or preliminary EGLE figure for calendar-year 2026 was located, as that report is not due until March 31, 2027.

YES means: EGLE's officially compiled statewide annual total of lead/GPCL service lines fully replaced for calendar year 2026 — as published from the ASLRRs — is reported above 30,000 lines. The strongest NO case rests on funding headwinds, compliance gaps, and the fact that no year has ever come close enough to 30,000 to make a modest shortfall unlikely. - [2026-01-08] A federal FY2026 spending package passed by the House eliminated $125 million of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law's lead service line replacement funding that Congress had previously approved for this year, after an earlier Senate proposal had sought to cut $250 million; "A provision included in the legislation would eliminate $125 million for lead service line replacements that Congress previously approved for this year in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law of 2021," and "That bipartisan infrastructure law provided $15 billion to replace lead service lines over 5 years, and this is the last year of funding." Less federal money flowing into FY2026 projects is a direct drag on the pace of replacements physically completed in 2026. - [2026-01-14] Rep. Tlaib's congressional testimony confirms the cut was enacted, not just proposed: "Updated estimates put the total cost of full lead service line replacement near $75 billion... But instead of surging funding, Congressional appropriators actually just cut $125 million in lead service line replacement funding in the Interior appropriations package." This is a concrete, dated funding reduction landing squarely in the 2026 construction season. - [2025-11-25] EPA's own reallocation announcement shows the national lead-line count was revised sharply downward, which both justifies funding cuts and signals systems (potentially including Michigan ones) finding fewer lead lines than assumed; EPA Assistant Administrator for Water Jess Kramer said "The $3 billion will go farther because utilities are identifying fewer lead pipes than previously believed." Fewer confirmed lead lines statewide could mechanically cap how many can be "replaced" in any single year. - [2026-02-05] EGLE's own release confirms Flint — historically one of Michigan's fastest per-capita replacers — is now down to mop-up work: "With roughly 98 percent of the residential lead service lines in the city replaced, EGLE continues to work with the City of Flint to replace the remaining Tier 1 and 2 service lines," with the city itself estimating "there are still roughly 500 lines requiring replacement." A program that contributed meaningfully to prior annual totals is now a negligible 2026 contributor. - [2026-09-28] An AP News analysis (via EHSLeaders) found nationwide compliance gaps that complicate the data pipeline EGLE depends on: "Roughly 6,300 water systems serving 3.8 million Americans have still not submitted a required list of how many lead service lines remain in use," and "more than 1,300 public water systems cited by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for failing to meet an October 2024 deadline." Persistent reporting delinquency among water systems creates a real risk that EGLE's compiled 2026 statewide figure is incomplete, undercounted, or delayed relative to the "true" replacement pace — a technicality that pushes toward resolving on the lower, officially-compiled number rather than the actual on-the-ground activity. - [2026-09-28] The same analysis notes unresolved "unknown" material lines remain a bottleneck: "The inventories identify service lines made of lead, galvanized lines requiring replacement, non-lead lines and lines made of unknown materials." Unresolved unknowns slow the conversion of candidate lines into confirmed "replaced lead/GPCL line" counts that EGLE can report. - [Historical pattern] EGLE's own four published annual totals (2021–2024) never approached 30,000, topping out at 24,521 in 2024 per the colleague reports' EGLE source — a run of four straight years below the threshold is the relevant base rate, and even the most optimistic third-party reconstruction of 2025 (~28,300, per colleagues' Planet Detroit dashboard citation) still fell short, meaning the series would need back-to-back record jumps (not just one) to clear 30,000 in 2026 amid the funding cut and Flint wind-down headwinds described above. - [2026-09-28] Litigation risk remains live: oral arguments in AWWA v. EPA over the Lead and Copper Rule Improvements are expected in Fall 2026 with a ruling 6–12 months later, per NRDC's case tracker (previously cited by colleagues), meaning the regulatory and funding environment for the back half of 2026 is not fully settled, adding downside uncertainty to utilities' capital planning rather than upside certainty. - [Reporting-deadline mechanics, reaffirmed] Even if 2026 activity were robust, the ASLRR for calendar-year 2026 is not due to EGLE until March 31, 2027, and EGLE's historical cadence has been to publish the compiled statewide table on a lag (the 2024 total was only confirmed in EGLE's Dec-2025 End-of-Year report) — leaving a comparatively tight window between the March 2027 filing deadline and the market's July 1, 2027 close for EGLE to fully compile, QA, and publish a precise statewide figure, a status-quo administrative friction that has not previously been tested under this market's timeline. BOTTOM LINE: No annual total has ever reached 30,000 in Michigan's four years of published ASLRR data (peak 24,521 in 2024), and 2026 brings concrete negative catalysts — a confirmed $125M federal funding cut in the IIJA's final funding year, Flint's program effectively finished, and documented statewide/nationwide reporting delinquency that could undercount or delay EGLE's compiled figure — all of which argue for the pace falling short of, or data arriving too incomplete to clearly exceed, 30,000. NOT FOUND: Any official EGLE-published single-year total for 2025 or 2026; confirmation of how EGLE's "Year" field in future ASLRR compilations will treat late or missing utility submissions; any Michigan-specific (as opposed to national) data on revised/lowered lead line inventory counts.