Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

- [2026-09-23] The Cook Political Report rates the two Senate seats in Harris states as Toss Up: Maine (Collins, R-held) and New Hampshire (open seat), with all other Harris-state Senate seats (CO, DE, IL, MA, MN, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA) rated Solid/Likely D. https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings - [2026-08-27] Of the 19 Harris states, only two have 2026 gubernatorial elections with Republican incumbents: New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte, rated "Likely R") and Vermont (Phil Scott, rated "Solid R"); Maine's open governor seat is rated "Solid D." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections - [2026-10-02] A CBS News/YouGov poll (fielded Sept. 23–Oct. 1) found the Maine Senate race between Susan Collins (R) and Troy Jackson (D) with Jackson running "behind the Democrats' gubernatorial nominee Hannah Pingree, as Pingree's lead in the governor's race hews much more closely to the state's overall partisan lean." https://www.cbsnews.com/news/maine-senate-poll-2026-10-02/ - [2026-10-01] An AARP poll released Oct. 1 showed "The former state Senate president is leading against Collins 50 to 47 percent, with 3 percent undecided." in the Maine Senate race, indicating a continued toss-up but a slight Democratic edge. https://www.aarp.org/government-elections/maine-election-poll-2026/ - [2026-09-24] A Sept. 22 NYT/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll found Collins ahead of Jackson 49%-46%, the first independent poll to show Collins leading, though "Collins' advantage falls within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points." https://www.newsweek.com/susan-collins-troy-jackson-maine-senate-race-poll-12482806 - [2026-09-24] A UNH Granite State Poll found Pappas (D) leading Sununu (R) in New Hampshire's open Senate race, a reversal after Sununu had led a month earlier; "Pappas is now supported by 50% of voters compared to 42% for Republican John Sununu. That is a reversal from a month ago, when Sununu held a two-point lead." https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/24/poll-shows-pappas-opens-lead-new-hampshire-senate-race/ - [2026-09-28] RealClearPolitics' polling average has Pappas leading Sununu in New Hampshire by 6.4 points (47.7%-41.3%), with the race still formally labeled a "Toss Up." https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/new-hampshire/pappas-vs-sununu - [2026-09-28] A new Vermont Public poll shows "Phil Scott, a five-term incumbent, is leading by 10 points over first-time statewide candidate Amanda Janoo, according to the Vermont Public 2026 Poll," though this is described as Scott's tightest race yet. https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-28/poll-shows-amanda-janoo-closing-on-phil-scott-governors-race - [2026-08-19] Cook Political Report's Governor ratings page rates Vermont "Solid R," noting "Solid R. … After a massive 52-point victory in 2024, Republican Gov. Phil Scott should easily win another two-year term in 2026." https://www.cookpolitical.com/governor/race/479611 - [2026-08-27] New Hampshire's governorship (Ayotte, R, incumbent running) is rated "Likely R" by Cook as of Aug. 27, 2026, with Democrat Cinde Warmington as the challenger. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections - [2026-09-09] Brookings analysis notes: "Only two Republican-held governorships are in states carried by Kamala Harris, New Hampshire and Vermont, and only New Hampshire is seen as potentially competitive." https://www.brookings.edu/articles/in-2026-governor-races-local-issues-rival-national-trend/ BOTTOM LINE: As of early October 2026, the baseline path to exactly "2" runs through Republicans holding both the NH and VT governorships (both currently favored, though NH is only "Likely R" and Vermont has tightened to single digits) while Democrats take both toss-up Senate seats in Maine and New Hampshire; recent polling (late Sept–Oct) shows Democrats with narrow-to-modest leads in both Senate races, consistent with but not guaranteeing the "exactly 2" outcome, since any one of the four competitive races (ME Senate, NH Senate, NH Gov, VT Gov) flipping from its current favorite would push the count away from 2. NOT FOUND: No dedicated primary-source tally from Kalshi or other prediction markets specifically stating the current probability/price for this "exactly 2" contract (excluded per instructions); no official state election-night results yet, as voting has not occurred.

- [2026-09-29] Cook Political Report's 2026 governor ratings classify Vermont (Gov. Phil Scott) as Solid Republican and New Hampshire (Gov. Kelly Ayotte) as Likely Republican, the only two 2026 gubernatorial races in the 19 Harris states rated favorable to the GOP; all other Harris-state governorships (CA, CO, CT, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, MN, NM, NY, OR, RI) are rated Lean/Likely/Solid Democratic. https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings - [2026-09-23] Cook's 2026 Senate ratings place only two Harris-state Senate races in competitive territory: Maine (Collins, R-held) as Toss-Up and New Hampshire (open seat) as Toss-Up; all other Harris-state Senate seats (CO, DE, IL, MA, MN, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA) are Solid Democratic. https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings - [2026-09-15] Cook Political Report moved the open New Hampshire Senate race from "Lean Democrat" to "Toss Up" after Republican John E. Sununu entered, noting Former GOP Sen. John E. Sununu securing his party's nomination for the open Senate seat earlier in the month gave the GOP a much-needed boost in the otherwise unfavorable political environment, and he will face off against Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) in November , but Cook's own write-up still leans toward Democrats holding it absent a GOP-favorable environment. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/15/new-hampshire-senate-race-now-classified-toss-up-good-sign-gop/ - [2026-10-02] Aggregated Maine Senate polling (FiftyPlusOne) as of Oct 2, 2026 shows Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Susan Collins by about 2.4 points (48.4%–46.0%), reflecting a genuine toss-up rather than a clear GOP lean. https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/senate/general/maine - [2026-10-02] Polymarket's "Maine Senate Election Winner" market priced Troy Jackson (D) at 60% and Susan Collins (R) at 42% as of October 2, 2026, with Collins described as having "a modest edge in trader consensus" working against her due to the state's Democratic lean. https://polymarket.com/event/maine-senate-election-winner - [2026-10-01] NH Governor race ratings compiled by 270toWin show Ayotte rated Likely R (Cook), Lean R (DDHQ, RCP), and Solid R (Inside Elections, Fox) — a consistent but not unanimous "safe-ish" GOP lean. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_New_Hampshire_gubernatorial_election - [2026-09-25] Vermont's governor race ratings are nearly all Solid/Safe R (Cook, DDHQ, Fox, Inside Elections), with only Silver Bulletin as an outlier calling it a "Tossup," making a Republican win in VT the single most probable outcome among the 27 qualifying races. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2026 Wikipedia summary] In 2022, Republicans defended exactly two governorships in Biden-won states — Vermont and New Hampshire — this race was one of six Republican-held governorships up for election in 2022 in a state carried by Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election , and Scott/Sununu both won comfortably that cycle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2024 cycle precedent] In 2024, the same two seats were again the only Republican-held governorships in Harris/Biden states, and the Republicans defended New Hampshire and Vermont successfully despite Kamala Harris winning from there in the concurrent presidential election — directly establishing a "2" baseline count from governors alone in the last cycle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_gubernatorial_elections - [2026-09-23] Despite that historical "2," this cycle adds two live additional opportunities for Republicans to exceed 2: the Maine Senate seat (Collins) and the open New Hampshire Senate seat, both newly classified as Toss-Up by Cook rather than safely Democratic as in 2022/2024, meaning the "exactly 2" outcome now requires Democrats to sweep both Senate toss-ups while Republicans hold both VT and NH governorships. https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/new-hampshire-senate/move-toward-gop-new-hampshire-senate-race-shifts-into-toss-up (titled similarly) and Cook Senate ratings page. - [2026-09-20/22] An AARP-commissioned poll (Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research, Sept 20-22) found Troy Jackson leading Collins 50%-47% in Maine, while noting the partisan gap between both races—with the Democrat leading the gubernatorial race by 13 points but only three points in the Senate contest—is striking , underscoring Maine's Senate race as genuinely close rather than a clear GOP or Dem lock. https://www.aarp.org/government-elections/maine-election-poll-2026/ BOTTOM LINE: The base rate from the two most recent comparable cycles (2022 and 2024) is that exactly 2 Republicans win statewide races in Harris/Biden-carried states — specifically the Vermont and New Hampshire governorships — which matches this question's "exactly 2" threshold if history simply repeats. However, this cycle uniquely adds two live additional GOP opportunities (Maine Senate, NH Senate) rated as genuine toss-ups by Cook and roughly even in polling/markets, meaning "exactly 2" requires Republicans to hold both historically-reliable governorships AND lose both newly competitive Senate toss-ups — a more conjunctive, less certain outcome than the historical pattern alone would suggest. NOT FOUND: No explicit historical frequency statistic for "exactly N Republican statewide wins in Democratic-presidential states" as a formal recurring metric from any forecaster; no Kalshi-specific commentary; no direct, current (within 30 days) RCP/538-style combined probability estimate specifically for the "exactly 2" compound event.

YES means: the GOP nominee wins exactly 2 of the 27 Senate/gubernatorial general elections in the 19 Harris states — in practice, the path requires Republicans to hold the New Hampshire and Vermont governorships while losing both the Maine and New Hampshire Senate seats (the only four competitive races among the 27). - [2026-10-03] Current polling-average aggregator FiftyPlusOne has the Maine Senate race at Oct 3, 2026 Jackson +2... Jackson 48.5%... Collins 46.2% , confirming a persistent small Democratic lean in averages even after several single polls showed Collins ahead. - [2026-09-25] For New Hampshire's open Senate seat, Polymarket's standalone contract price per Newsweek has moved to Latest Polymarket Odds: Pappas (D) 87% , while the RealClearPolitics average separately shows RealClearPolitics Poll Average Pappas +6.4... Pappas(D) 47.7%... Sununu(R) 41.3% — both pointing toward a Democratic hold that would keep the GOP count at the two governorships. - [2026-10-01] A Rasmussen national-firm NH poll published roughly three weeks out found 45% of Likely New Hampshire voters would vote for Pappas, while 34% would vote for Sununu , an even wider margin than other trackers, reinforcing that Sununu is the underdog in the race Republicans would need to lose for "exactly 2" to hold. - [2026-09-25] Independent aggregator Pollsmax puts the NH Senate race at Polling average: 46.5% D / 41.0% R Polling average margin: D +5.5 , based on 20 polls, another data point consistent with the Democratic-hold half of the YES scenario. - [2026-09-17] Despite recent noise, New Hampshire's governorship remains the single steadiest Republican hold in a Harris state: the Wikipedia-aggregated polling average has | RealClearPolitics | August 17 – September 21, 2026 | 50.3% | 38.3% | 11.4% | Ayotte +12.0% with an overall cross-pollster average of Average | | | 50.8% | 38.1% | 11.1% | Ayotte +12.7% — a double-digit cushion far outside the range of any single poll's error, making an NH-gov GOP win the most secure piece of the "2" scenario. - [2026-09-11] Vermont's governor race is rated by a majority of trackers as safely Republican — Cook Political Report lists it The Cook Political Report | Solid R | September 11, 2025 , with Decision Desk HQ, Fox News, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections also at Solid/Safe R, and only Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics rating it a Tossup/Lean R as of late September — still a plurality-favorable rating set for the second piece of the "2" scenario. - [2026-09-24] A newer UNH poll (Sept 17–21) is the one outlier showing Vermont tightening sharply, with University of New Hampshire | September 17–21, 2026 | 829 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 49% | 2% | 6% favoring Democrat Amanda Janoo over incumbent Phil Scott — but this conflicts with other late-September polling (e.g., Vermont Public's Sept. 28 survey cited by colleagues) still showing Scott comfortably ahead, so most aggregators have not moved off "Solid/Safe R." - [2026-10-01] Even as Collins has shown some late momentum (NYT/Siena, AARP-adjacent co/efficient poll showing 48 percent said they would vote for Collins compared with 46 percent for Jackson ), this would only risk pushing the count to 3 (if Collins also wins) rather than undermining the "exactly 2" path through a Collins loss; it does not threaten the NH-gov/VT-gov "floor" that defines the YES scenario. - [2024/2022 precedent] As colleagues' base-rate report notes, New Hampshire and Vermont were the only two Harris/Biden-state governorships Republicans won in both 2022 and 2024, establishing a mechanical precedent that, if the Senate toss-ups in Maine and New Hampshire break Democratic as current polling averages suggest, reproduces an identical "2" result in 2026. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case for YES rests on polling averages (not single outlier polls) converging on Democrats winning both the Maine and New Hampshire Senate seats while Republicans retain their historically reliable New Hampshire and Vermont governorships — a scenario consistent with the 2022/2024 precedent and currently the modal outcome implied by FiftyPlusOne, RCP, Pollsmax and Polymarket data as of early October 2026. NOT FOUND: No single consolidated forecaster probability for the exact joint "2-governors-plus-both-Senate-Democratic" scenario; no post-October-1 polling update specifically reconciling the conflicting UNH vs. Vermont Public governor polls.

YES means: the 2026 general election results produce exactly two Republican wins among the 27 Senate/gubernatorial contests in the 19 Harris states — in practice, this requires Republicans to hold both the New Hampshire and Vermont governorships while Democrats sweep the Maine and New Hampshire Senate seats (or some other combination summing to exactly 2, e.g., losing one governorship but winning one Senate race). The NO case here is built on evidence that this four-race conjunction is far less secure than a simple "2 is the modal outcome" read suggests. - [2026-09-24] A UNH Granite State ("Green Mountain State") poll found Democrat Amanda Janoo leading five-term GOP Gov. Phil Scott 49%-43%, a result VTDigger called "a striking reversal from a separate survey last week that showed the race in a statistical tie," directly contradicting the "Solid R" baseline assumption for Vermont that the count-of-2 scenario depends on. https://vtdigger.org/2026/09/28/new-poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-leading-amanda-janoo-by-10-points/ - [2026-09-28] Four days later, a different pollster (Vermont Public/Braun Research) showed Scott back ahead 42%-32% (44%-34% among likely voters), a "16-point swing from Friday's Green Mountain State Poll," illustrating that Vermont's governor race is genuinely more volatile than the "Solid R" rating implies, not a locked-in Republican hold. https://vtdigger.org/2026/09/28/new-poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-leading-amanda-janoo-by-10-points/ - [2026-09-28] Even Scott's own campaign spokesperson conceded uncertainty, with Vermont Public reporting Scott's support "has clearly cratered since he won 73% of the vote in 2024," down from a 47-point 2024 margin to single digits now, a magnitude of collapse unprecedented in his five terms. https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-28/poll-shows-amanda-janoo-closing-on-phil-scott-governors-race - [2026-09-29] Maine's Senate race still features a credible independent, Rick Bennett, drawing 6% in the AARP poll, and the contest is conducted under ranked-choice voting, meaning a sub-50% plurality leader could be overtaken after RCV reallocation — adding mechanical uncertainty beyond simple polling margins to whether the "Republican nominee" (Collins) or the Democrat ultimately wins. https://www.pressherald.com/2026/10/01/aarp-poll-shows-older-mainers-leaning-toward-susan-collins-in-us-senate-race/ - [2026-09-26] Pollster dispersion in Maine's Senate race is extreme for an election five weeks out: an InsiderAdvantage poll had Collins and Jackson "deadlocked" at 46% each, while UNH (Sept 17-21) had Jackson up 51%-47% and NYT/Siena (Sept 15-22) had Collins up 49%-46% — a spread wide enough that the final result could plausibly land outside the "Democrat wins Maine" assumption built into the exactly-2 scenario. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/poll-shows-susan-collins-deadlocked-235212830.html - [2026-10-02] By contrast, Virginia's Senate race is confirmed "Solid D"/"Safe D" with Warner projected to win by double digits (e.g., a 96.2% Democratic win probability in one model), closing off that state as a fifth avenue for a GOP pickup and keeping the ceiling on Republican wins effectively at 4 competitive races (ME Sen, NH Sen, NH Gov, VT Gov) rather than 5. https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/virginia/forecast/ - [2026-10-03] Florida's and Ohio's 2026 Senate specials — the only other special elections on the 2026 ballot — are confirmed to be in non-Harris states, so they cannot add or subtract from the 19-state count, meaning the entire outcome space for "exactly 2" rides on just these four genuinely contested races rather than a broader map. https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026 - [2026-09-24] New Hampshire's governor race itself showed a "statistical tie" in the Sept. 17-21 UNH poll even as the RealClearPolitics average separately shows Ayotte up 14 points, indicating that at least one credible pollster sees this "Likely R" race as genuinely competitive, not safely in the Republican column that the exactly-2 outcome assumes. https://indepthnh.org/2026/09/24/warmington-in-statistical-tie-with-gov-kelly-ayotte/ - [2026-10-02] NHPR/Vermont Public's Oct. 2 overview frames the NH governor race as hinging on which candidate's liabilities (Trump's record vs. Warmington's past Purdue Pharma lobbying) voters find "least distasteful," underscoring that the outcome is seen by local reporters as a genuine toss-up in the campaign's "home stretch" rather than a foregone Ayotte hold. https://www.vermontpublic.org/2026-10-02/nh-governor-race-what-to-know-midterm-elections BOTTOM LINE: With all four races that determine this count (Maine Senate, New Hampshire Senate, New Hampshire governor, and — newly, surprisingly — Vermont governor) showing real volatility across pollsters in the past two weeks, the "exactly 2" scenario requires a specific, non-guaranteed conjunction (both governorships R, both Senate seats D) rather than a locked-in status quo; any single flip (e.g., Vermont going D, or Collins/Sununu winning) pushes the count to 1, 0, 3, or 4, giving the NO case real support beyond simple base-rate repetition. NOT FOUND: No polling or market data confirming a Republican is favored to flip any additional Harris-state Senate or governor race beyond these four (none found for CO, IL, MN, NJ, NM, OR, CT, RI, DE, MA, MD, HI, CA, NY, WA governorships/Senate races); no official state canvass or certified results, as voting has not yet occurred.