Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above $65 billion event contracts total trading volume in fiscal 2026?

- [2026-04-28] Q1 2026 (Jan–Mar): Robinhood reported Event Contracts Traded were a record 8.8 billion for the quarter. Source: SEC 8-K (q12026robinhoodexhibit991.htm). - [2026-07-29] Q2 2026 (Apr–Jun): Robinhood reported Event Contracts Traded increased over 10x year-over-year to a record 13.6 billion , with event contracts revenue of $156 million, up over 10x . Source: SEC 8-K (q22026robinhoodexhibit991.htm) / investors.robinhood.com. - [2026-08-12] July 2026 monthly data: Event Contracts Traded were 6.1 billion (down 5% from June 2026, up 20x year-over-year); ADVs were 197 million contracts (down 8% from June 2026, up 20x year-over-year) . Source: globenewswire.com. - [2026-09-10] August 2026 monthly data: Event Contracts Traded were 4.7 billion (down 23% from July 2026, up 15x year-over-year); ADVs were 152 million contracts (down 23% from July 2026, up 14x year-over-year) . Source: investors.robinhood.com press release. - [2026-09-28] September 2026 month-to-date (through Sept 24): Event Contracts Traded were approximately 4.4 billion , with full September 2026 Operating Data to be released as part of Q3 2026 Earnings Release . Source: investors.robinhood.com static file. - [2026-09-22] A third-party tally based on company data states cumulative trading volume has blown past 45 billion contracts, with more than 30 billion of those coming in just the first eight months of 2026 , consistent with summed monthly figures above (Q1 8.8B + Q2 13.6B + Jul 6.1B + Aug 4.7B ≈ 33.2B through August). Source: kucoin.com news flash. - [2026-10-01] Robinhood announced it will release its third quarter 2026 financial results on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, after market close , which will disclose full Q3 Event Contracts Traded (July+Aug+Sept total) and September monthly detail. Source: investors.robinhood.com. - [2026-02-10] For comparison, fiscal-2025 base rate: Q4 2025 (prior-year quarter) saw Event Contracts Traded were a record 3.4 billion , and management stated in Q4 [2025], prediction market volumes doubled, more than doubled yet again, with over 12 billion contracts traded in 2025... Customers have already traded over 4 billion so far in 2026 . This shows 2026 volumes are running roughly 3x the full-year-2025 total already through H1 alone. - [2026-10-02] A Motley Fool analysis notes the second quarter showed how growth could speed back up: transaction-based revenue climbed 44% year over year, as event contracts... pulled in $156 million, helping total revenue rise 32% , but cautions against assuming the pace continues given August/September deceleration (4.7B and a lower MTD run-rate implied for Sept). BOTTOM LINE: Using Robinhood's own "Event Contracts Traded" metric (the basis for this $-denominated-but-count-based KPI), cumulative volume through roughly September 24, 2026 is approximately 37.6–38 billion contracts (Q1 8.8B + Q2 13.6B + Jul 6.1B + Aug 4.7B + Sept MTD 4.4B), meaning Robinhood would need roughly 27 billion more contracts in the final ~3.3 months of fiscal 2026 (Q4 plus month-end September) to clear the 65 billion threshold — a pace (~8–9 billion/month) higher than the July–September run-rate of 4.4–6.1 billion/month, though Q4 carries NFL playoffs and US midterm elections (Nov 3, 2026) as potential volume catalysts, and the Q3 2026 earnings release (Oct 27, 2026) will be the next major data point before the full-year figure is confirmed at Q4/FY2026 earnings (expected Feb 2027). NOT FOUND: Full September 2026 monthly total (only MTD through Sept 24 available as of Oct 3, 2026); any official Robinhood management guidance specifically for Q4 2026 event-contract volumes; the exact Q4 2026/FY2026 earnings release date (not yet announced).

- [2026-02-10] For full-year 2025 (the product's first full year), Robinhood reported over 12 billion event contracts traded in 2025 , with Event Contracts Traded were a record 8.5 billion in Q4 alone — showing the base (2025) was roughly 12.1 billion contracts, far below any $50B+ threshold. (investors.robinhood.com/news-releases/news-release-details/robinhood-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-results) - [2026-04-28] Q1 2026: Event Contracts Traded were a record 8.8 billion. (sec.gov 8-K q12026robinhoodexhibit991.htm) - [2026-07-29] Q2 2026: Event Contracts Traded increased over 10x year-over-year to a record 13.6 billion. H1 2026 total is therefore ~22.4 billion contracts, already roughly double all of 2025. (investors.robinhood.com Q2 2026 results) - [2026-09-10] Robinhood's own monthly data show Q3 momentum cooling from the Q2 peak: July event contracts were 6.1 billion, and Event Contracts Traded were 4.7 billion (down 23% from July 2026, up 15x year-over-year). ADVs were 152 million contracts (down 23% from July 2026, up 14x year-over-year). (investors.robinhood.com August 2026 operating data release) - [2026-09-28] September month-to-date (through Sept 24) data show Event Contracts Traded were approximately 4.4 billion , implying Q3 2026 total of roughly 15–16 billion contracts, below Q2's 13.6B-per-quarter pace extrapolated forward and confirming a sequential slowdown after the June World Cup-driven spike. (investors.robinhood.com September 2026 MTD release) - [2026-09-29] At HOOD Summit 2026, management disclosed the company has traded more than 50 billion prediction market contracts to date (i.e., since the product's 2025 launch through late September 2026), and announced new catalysts (earnings contracts, perpetual futures) intended to reaccelerate volume into Q4. (investing.com HOOD Summit coverage) - [2026-08-04] This is a brand-new product line (two years old) with no prior multi-year base rate; the Kalshi/Octagon tracker for this exact KPI series shows a wide range of sibling strike contracts (Above $50B, $55B, $60B, $70B, $75B, $80B, $90B, $100B), reflecting genuine forecaster uncertainty rather than an established historical frequency for this metric. (octagonai.co KPI tracker page) - [2026-08-04] An independent quantitative model (Octagon) assigned comparatively low probabilities to the higher strikes in this same series — e.g., assigning 20.0% probability versus the market's 0.0% for the "Above $50 billion" bucket at the time, with its probability estimate falling further for progressively higher thresholds — indicating analyst skepticism about linearly extrapolating the Q2 2026 surge through year-end. (octagonai.co) - [2026-08-04] Market commentary tied to this series itself warned that the August 4 price move "stems from significant volume growth in H1 2026, including a record Q2, with continued momentum expected from catalysts like the football season and US midterm elections," i.e., the bullish case rests on Q4 catalysts (NFL/NBA playoffs lead-up, Nov 2026 midterms) rather than realized data. (octagonai.co) - [2026-07-29] Analyst framing from Fortune noted Total prediction market volume for Robinhood in Q2 surged to 13 billion contracts compared with 9 billion in the first quarter , establishing the growth trend that underlies most forecasts, but subsequent monthly prints (July/August/September) show deceleration rather than continued doubling. (fortune.com) - [2026-09-30] Robinhood announced new 2026 Q4 product launches — AI trading agents, crypto perpetual futures, weekend equities trading, and new "earnings contracts" within Prediction Markets — explicitly timed "Before the Q3 earnings season, Robinhood will launch earnings contracts in the prediction market section" , a potential Q4 volume catalyst not yet reflected in any historical base rate. (chaincatcher.com) NOT FOUND: No full official Q3 2026 event-contract total (quarter not yet reported as of Oct 3, 2026); no multi-year historical base rate exists for this metric since the product only launched in 2025; no independent polling or survey-based "expert consensus" forecast for the specific $65B threshold was found beyond the single quantitative model (Octagon) cited above. BOTTOM LINE: There is no real historical base rate for this brand-new (2025-launched) product; using Robinhood's own trajectory, H1 2026 (~22.4B contracts) already topped all of 2025 (~12.1B), but July–September prints show a sequential slowdown (6.1B→4.7B→~4.4B-MTD) rather than continued acceleration, meaning reaching 65B for the full year would require an unprecedented Q4 surge well above any quarter seen to date — a scenario independent quantitative modeling has historically treated as a low-probability tail outcome even as market pricing for this series has run hotter than model estimates.

YES means: Robinhood's full fiscal-2026 "Event Contracts Traded" total, as disclosed in its FY2026/Q4 2026 earnings release (expected ~Feb 2027), exceeds 65 billion contracts. - [2026-09-03] Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley wrote that "Given Kalshi & HOOD's US-centric user base, and the large gap in popularity between Soccer and Football in the US, we view the explosive World Cup volumes as a leading indicator of what's to come -- the NFL/[NCAA Football] season should be a significant catalyst for HOOD's 3Q26 and 4Q26 prediction market revenue." He also estimated roughly 23% of prediction volume has shifted to Rothera from Kalshi since June, when the prediction market platform launched , meaning Robinhood is capturing a growing share of a fast-expanding sports-contract pie, not just riding a flat market. (cnbc.com) - [2026-09-29] At HOOD Summit 2026, Robinhood announced a wave of new volume catalysts launching before/during Q4: ahead of Q3 earnings season, Robinhood is launching new earnings contracts in its prediction markets hub — binary options contracts through Cboe letting users trade on company KPIs like beating earnings or hitting revenue targets, with both Cboe and Robinhood waiving all contract fees through year-end . Zero fees through year-end directly incentivizes volume over the exact Q4 window being measured. (robinhood.com) - [2026-09-30] Cboe confirmed the earnings-contracts rollout will initially cover 23 U.S.-listed companies, with both parties committing to waive all related fees through year-end , adding an entirely new, currently-zero-volume product category stacking on top of existing sports/crypto/election contracts for Q4. - [2026-09-29] The same Summit also unveiled perpetual futures and 24/7 weekend equities trading, additional engagement drivers that could pull more active traders into the app generally, indirectly supporting cross-sell into prediction markets. - [2026-09-25] Industry-wide NFL prediction-market volume is forecast to explode: DeFi Rate's conservative baseline scenario puts Kalshi's NFL trading volume at $56.51 billion for the 2026–27 season, nearly eight times the $7.21 billion recorded during the 2025-26 season , with an upside scenario reaching $128.14 billion if the current pace of preseason trading continues . Since Robinhood/Rothera is actively taking NFL-contract share from Kalshi (per Piper Sandler above), even a modest share of this NFL pool could deliver billions of additional Q4 contracts for Robinhood. - [2026-09-03] Piper Sandler also confirmed Robinhood management confirmed Rothera has approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to provide football contracts covering wins and spreads , removing a regulatory-approval bottleneck that could have capped Q4 football-driven volume. - [2026-10-01] A separate Covers.com analysis of Paradigm data found sports-related trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket has already topped $17 billion in August... football-related volume then jumped to $2.2 billion in September 2025 , illustrating how fast football-season volume can compound month-over-month — a pattern that, if repeated industry-wide in Oct–Dec 2026, would be the single most plausible mechanical path for Robinhood's own Event Contracts Traded to reaccelerate sharply above the July–September 4.4–6.1 billion/month run-rate cited by colleagues. - [2026-09-24] Separately, midterm-election contract volume is scaling fast: a CNN analysis found more than $750 million in combined trading volume on 2026 election markets on Kalshi and its top rival, Polymarket , with volume still rising into the Nov 3 election — a smaller but real incremental Q4 catalyst layered on top of football and earnings contracts. - [2026-09-29] JB Mackenzie, Robinhood's GM for futures and prediction markets, described a "supercycle" ... occurring in prediction markets as volumes continue to grow , explicit management framing of continued (not decelerating) growth heading into Q4. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES mechanism is a Q4 2026 volume reacceleration driven by three stacked, dated catalysts — the NFL regular season (whose industry-wide volume is projected to grow roughly 8x year-over-year per DeFi Rate), the new zero-fee earnings-contracts product launched via Cboe ahead of Q3 earnings, and the Nov 3 midterm elections — combined with Robinhood/Rothera's documented share gains from Kalshi; if even a fraction of the forecast $50B+ NFL pool and the new earnings-contract line flow through Robinhood at a multiple of its July–September run-rate, the ~27 billion-contract gap to 65 billion could close in Q4 alone. NOT FOUND: No official Robinhood or analyst numerical guidance translating the NFL/earnings-contract/election catalysts into a specific projected Q4 or full-year 2026 "Event Contracts Traded" count; no confirmed October 2026 monthly operating-data release yet (next scheduled disclosure is the Oct 27, 2026 Q3 earnings release).

YES means: Robinhood Markets Inc.'s official full-year 2026 "Event Contracts Traded" figure (or dollar-equivalent "event contracts total trading volume" as reported in its Q4 2026/FY2026 earnings release, expected ~Feb 2027) exceeds 65 billion contracts for fiscal 2026. - [2026-09-02] Even on an industry-wide (not Robinhood-specific) basis, combined Kalshi+Polymarket dollar volume fell 14.5% from July to August 2026 — the category's first monthly decline in a year — with the pullback steepest at the more retail-exposed venue, consistent with Robinhood's own 23% August MoM drop: https://www.shiftmarkets.com/prediction-markets-brief/september-2026 - [2026-08-28] The Ninth Circuit ruled 3-0 against Kalshi (and simultaneously against Robinhood and Crypto.com) that sports-related event contracts are gambling bets rather than CFTC-regulated swaps, backing Nevada's authority to shut the product down in that state: https://www.gambling.com/us/news/ninth-circuit-rules-against-kalshi-backs-nevada-gambling-law - [2026-09-16] The Ninth Circuit separately overturned a district-court order and sided with two California tribes, ruling that Robinhood- and Kalshi-offered sports-event contracts on tribal lands likely constitute illegal Class III gaming, adding to what commentators called a "courtroom losing streak": https://www.ingame.com/ninth-circuit-kalshi-injunction-denial-overturned/ - [2026-09-04/09] Under a court-approved stipulation, Robinhood Derivatives agreed to stop offering new sports-related event contracts to Michigan customers by Sept. 9, 2026, and to close out all remaining Michigan sports positions by Oct. 9, 2026 — removing a whole state's sports-contract volume for the balance of Q4: https://www.michigan.gov/mgcb/news/2026/09/09/robinhood-agrees-to-halt-contracts - [2026-06-30 10-Q, filed ~Aug 2026] Robinhood's own SEC filing confirms it already agreed in Nevada to "cease offering new sports-related event contracts in Nevada as of December 1, 2025" and disclosed active sports-contract-gambling lawsuits pending in Massachusetts, Wisconsin, and a four-case consolidated federal class action in the Northern District of California — a widening multi-state legal overhang specifically targeting the sports-contract category that drives a large share of volume during NFL season: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000178387926000114/hood-20260630.htm - [2026-09-10] Robinhood has now escalated to petitioning the U.S. Supreme Court for review of the adverse Ninth Circuit sports-contracts ruling (docket Robinhood Derivatives, LLC v. Dreitzer, 9th Cir. No. 25-7187, cert petition filed 9/10/26), confirming the legal threat is unresolved and will not be settled before fiscal-2026 close: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/robinhood-asks-high-court-to-review-sports-predictions-decisions - [2026-09-28] Robinhood's own September month-to-date data (through Sept. 24) show Event Contracts Traded of only "approximately 4.4 billion," the third straight monthly figure below the 6+ billion run-rate, implying full Q3 2026 lands near 15-16 billion — well under the ~16.3 billion-per-quarter pace a linear path to 65B over four quarters would require: https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/7ba5e924-5515-4ca9-bf69-638f89e56caf - [2026-09-18] Even CEO Vlad Tenev's bullish "supercycle" framing was paired with an acknowledgment, per Yahoo Finance's summary of his remarks, that adoption had come in "below the forecast," undercutting the case that Q4 will reaccelerate sharply enough to erase the ~27 billion-contract shortfall implied by colleagues' Sept-24 tally: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/robinhood-ceo-says-prediction-markets-112502975.html - [2026-08-28 to 2026-09-16] The compounding legal setbacks (Nevada ruling, Michigan forced exit, tribal-lands injunction) all land squarely in Q3–Q4 2026, i.e., precisely the window (including NFL season and the Nov. 3 midterms) that bulls were counting on for a volume catalyst — meaning the two biggest hoped-for Q4 drivers (NFL sports contracts across several states, and any sports-adjacent betting-style products) face active state-level suspensions rather than tailwinds. BOTTOM LINE: Beyond the already-documented sequential volume deceleration (13.6B→6.1B→4.7B→~4.4B MTD), a newly-escalating, multi-circuit legal assault (Nevada and tribal-land rulings against Robinhood/Kalshi sports contracts, a forced Michigan exit by Oct. 9, and unresolved Supreme Court review) is actively removing sports-contract volume capacity from several states right as NFL season begins, reinforcing rather than reversing the slowdown and making the ~27 billion-contract Q4 surge needed to clear 65 billion look structurally less likely, not more. NOT FOUND: No evidence of Robinhood sports-contract suspensions being lifted or reversed before year-end; no official Robinhood Q4 guidance quantifying the dollar/contract impact of the state exits; full September and Q3 2026 official totals (due at the Oct. 27, 2026 earnings release).