Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC raised the target federal funds range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% by a unanimous 12-0 vote — its first hike since 2023 — citing elevated inflation; the FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4% (https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/16/feds-interest-rate-decision-september-16-2026). - [2026-09-16] The Fed's statement said Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability (https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/16/feds-interest-rate-decision-september-16-2026). - [2026-09-16] The updated dot plot showed the median participant expecting the fed funds rate to hike an additional 25bps ending 2026 at 4.1%, with sixteen of eighteen participants expecting one additional rate hike this year, while four participants project two additional hikes (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/). - [2026-10-02] As of the latest FRED daily series, the target federal funds range remains unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% (upper limit 4.00%, lower limit 3.75%), confirming no rate move since September (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARL). - [2026-09-02] A government-shutdown threat for October 1, 2026 was averted: Congress moved early, passing a continuing resolution that President Trump signed into law on September 2, 2026... keeping federal agencies funded at current levels through December 11, 2026 , meaning the shutdown risk that disrupted data in 2025 is not currently recurring ahead of the October 2026 meeting (https://govtschemes.org/government-shutdown-october-2026/). - [2026-08-28] Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech was widely read as hawkish: on the price-stability side of our mandate, the numbers are more concerning. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the 12-month change in the PCE price index, stands at 3.7 percent, while the six-month change is 4.1 percent (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm). - [2026-09-29] Market pricing shifted toward expecting further tightening: Fixed income markets are now firmly pricing in back-to-back Federal Reserve rate hikes for October and December 2026... This would elevate the federal funds rate to 4-4.25% , with Fed Governors Barr and Cook cited as reinforcing a hawkish stance (https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/09/29/what-to-expect-from-interest-rates-for-the-rest-of-2026/). - [2026-10-02] However, more recent futures-based trackers show odds have swung back toward a hold: one tracker citing CME/Kalshi/Polymarket data states a hold is favored: hold is 84%, a cut about 2%... Kalshi and Polymarket put a quarter-point hike at about 17% and a hold at about 84% as of Oct 2 (https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/). - [2026-10-02] A separate CME FedWatch-based tool shows a smaller but still clear lean toward holding, with the 3.75–4.00% (no-change) bracket at 74.7% probability versus 25.3% for a hike to 4.00–4.25% (https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor). - [2026-09-28] One lower-tier aggregator reported a sharp two-week swing in October-hike odds, citing CME FedWatch data shows rate-hike odds at just 30%, down sharply from prior expectations , attributing part of the reversal to the federal data-release pipeline being disrupted — though this appears to conflate 2025's shutdown effects and should be treated cautiously (https://www.onebullex.com/news/articles/five-data-releases-decide-if-fed-hikes-again-in-october-after-september-16-increase-5). - [2026-10-28/29] The next FOMC decision is scheduled for October 27–28, 2026, with the statement due at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28, per the official Fed calendar (https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/). - [2026-09-16] Heading into the September hike, markets had priced a near-certain move: The Fed's decision was well telegraphed by CME futures trading, which pegged chances of a 25-basis point hike at 92% this morning heading into the meeting , illustrating that futures markets have moved quickly and significantly meeting-to-meeting this cycle (https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting). BOTTOM LINE: The Fed just broke a years-long pause by hiking 25bp in September 2026 to 3.75%–4.00% amid a hawkish Chair Warsh and elevated inflation, and its own dot plot pointed to at least one more hike in 2026; but as of early October, futures- and prediction-market-based trackers have swung back to favoring a "no change" outcome at the October 27–28 meeting (roughly 62–85% hold probability depending on source/date), making this a genuinely contested, data-dependent call rather than a settled one. NOT FOUND: No evidence of an active/ongoing federal government shutdown as of October 2026 (the October 2026 CR averted it through Dec 11), so no confirmation that September/October jobs or CPI data were delayed this cycle (unlike 2025). Could not find a single authoritative, up-to-the-day (post Oct 2) CME FedWatch snapshot free of aggregator inconsistency; third-party trackers disagree on exact probability (ranging ~62%-85% hold), and this report does not state or rely on the Polymarket contract's own price.

- [2026-09-16] At its September 15–16, 2026 meeting the FOMC concluded its sixth meeting of the year by raising the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4%, the first time the benchmark rate has been increased since 2023, voting 12-0 . This followed five consecutive 2026 "hold" decisions (Jan, Mar, Apr, Jun, Jul), making September the only rate-change meeting of the year so far — consistent with holds being the modal outcome historically. - [2026-07-29] At the prior (July) meeting, the Fed policymakers voted 9-3 to leave the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75% , continuing a pattern where most 2026 meetings before September resulted in no change. - [2026-10-02] A specialized Fed-probability aggregator (Central Bank Watch) reported the "Fed: 74% odds of a hold at the meeting on October 28, 2026," with the current market-implied probability of no change at 74% , derived from fed funds futures. - [2026-10-02] A separate prediction-market tracking site (DeFi Rate), averaging Kalshi and Polymarket prices, reported that a hold is favored, with Kalshi and Polymarket putting a quarter-point hike at about 17% and a hold at about 84% as of Oct 2, and a cut at about 2% . - [2026-10-02] The same site's underlying Kalshi meeting-path table showed the October 28, 2026 meeting priced at roughly Heading into the October 27–28, 2026 meeting, the confirmed starting point is the current target range of 3.75% – 4%, after the FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the range by 25 basis points at its September 15–16 meeting , with a "hold" most-likely tag and a hike priced around 18-20%. - [2026-10-01] CME FedWatch-derived data cited on an independent tracker stated according to CME Fedwatch Tool as of 01 Oct 2026, there is a 62.1% probability that the US Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting , a somewhat lower "no change" estimate than the Kalshi/Polymarket average, illustrating dispersion across trackers/dates. - [2026-09-30] A rate-schedule site noted that as of Sept 30 the CME FedWatch tool leaned toward the target range holding or rising further, assigning meaningful odds (Hold 30%, Hike 51% in that snapshot) to another 25-basis-point increase before year-end , showing that hike-vs-hold pricing has fluctuated materially week to week since the September hike. - [2026-09-30/10-02] Multiple sources note the Fed's own rhetoric has been hawkish: the Fed chair still called 3.7% inflation "unquestionably too high," adding that one more hike "may be appropriate late this year" , which supports a nontrivial (though minority) probability of a further hike rather than a hold. - [2026-09-15/16] The September statement's dissent pattern is informative for base-rate purposes: at the July meeting, it was the first time since September 2016 that three policymakers dissented with a unified view of which direction rates should head , signaling unusually high internal disagreement about whether to hold or hike — a dynamic that has persisted into the October-meeting pricing. - [2026-10-02] Academic research on the general reliability of these market-based tools found that the CME FedWatch model predicts FOMC rate decisions with 88% accuracy 30 days prior to meetings, exceeding the 75% accuracy of Fed funds futures , supporting the general credibility of using futures-implied probabilities as a base-rate proxy, though accuracy rises closer to the meeting date and can shift sharply on new data (as seen between Sept 30 and Oct 2). BOTTOM LINE: Within 2026, "no change" has been the FOMC's modal outcome (5 of 6 meetings held rates), but the Fed broke that pattern with a September hike amid persistent above-target inflation, and nearly all trackers (Kalshi, Polymarket, CME FedWatch, Central Bank Watch) as of early October 2026 place "no change" at October's meeting as the favored outcome, with estimates clustering mostly between roughly 62% and 84%, albeit with a hike priced as a material (~15-35%) secondary possibility and estimates varying noticeably by source and date. NOT FOUND: A long-run (multi-decade) historical base rate for "percentage of FOMC meetings resulting in no change" was not directly located in a primary Fed source within the search window; only the 2026-specific meeting-by-meeting record was confirmed via news sources.

YES means: The FOMC holds the target federal funds range unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% (no hike, no cut, 0 bps change) at the conclusion of its October 27–28, 2026 meeting, versus the level prevailing before that meeting. - [2026-10-01] New York Fed President and FOMC Vice Chair John Williams said "there‌ is no need for urgency" on changing the current setting of monetary policy , explicitly pushing back on market pricing for an October move (Reuters/Yahoo Finance). - [2026-10-01] Williams did not rule out a later move, saying "One further ‌upward adjustment" in the policy rate may be appropriate late this year — i.e., his preferred path is hold-in-October-then-maybe-hike-in-December, not an October hike (Reuters/Yahoo Finance). - [2026-10-01] Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reinforced the patience message, saying "Any future adjustments in policy should be determined by carefully examining trends in the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," and that his colleagues "will need to come to our own judgment, which may take more time" (Reuters/Yahoo Finance). - [2026-10-01] The Reuters report frames this as a coordinated signal: Williams' comments were pivotal for markets and helped wash away expectations that the Fed would raise rates at an October 27-28 FOMC meeting, even as they cemented the view that the Fed will raise rates in December — the most likely YES path is explicitly "hold in October, hike (if at all) in December." - [2026-10-02] The September jobs report, released the same week, showed the U.S. economy added 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September... Economists had forecast a gain of 84,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%... The jobless rate rose to 4.2% , a clear downside labor surprise. - [2026-10-02] Prior-month payrolls were revised sharply lower too: July payrolls were revised down by 31,000, from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000. August payrolls were revised down by 29,000, from 162,000 to 133,000. Combined, the two months showed 60,000 fewer jobs than previously reported — reinforcing a weakening-labor narrative that argues against tightening further. - [2026-10-02] CNBC quoted Jefferies' chief U.S. economist reacting to the report: traders interpreting the soft jobs numbers as good news as they likely further cemented the Federal Reserve staying put at its October meeting... "For the Fed, this number should be the nail in the coffin for an October hike" . - [2026-10-02] Economist Mohamed El-Erian told Yahoo Finance the report is "going to put the Fed definitely on hold for October," while still expecting officials to treat the labor market as near full employment. - [2026-10-02] White House CEA Chair Chris Phelan said he no longer expects a hike given the jobs miss and cooler inflation data, stating "I think with today's job market data, and a speech by the [Fed] vice chairman, I think the market is now no longer expecting another rate hike" . - [2026-09-30/10-01] Market pricing moved accordingly: "likely just investors pricing out the odds the Fed needs to hike this month," said Ross Mayfield... The 2-year Treasury yield has fallen as investors now expect the Federal Reserve to hold its benchmark rate steady this month . - [2026-10-02] Bloomberg characterized this as a deliberate top-down signal from the Chair's deputies: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams said in separate speeches they believe the central bank has time to assess the economy before considering another rate increase, comments that reeled in investor expectations for a rate hike this month . - Mechanism/prerequisite for YES: for the Fed to hold, no fresh upside inflation shock should materialize between now and Oct 28 (CPI/PCE releases still pending) that would override the Williams/Jefferson "wait" stance; given the weak jobs report already landed and officials (including the FOMC's own vice chair and a sitting vice-chair-rank regional president) have already pivoted to a "no urgency" framing, the bar for a last-minute hawkish reversal within three-plus weeks is comparatively high. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case for YES (no change) rests on a clear, dated pivot: the weak September jobs report (29k vs. 84k expected, unemployment up to 4.2%) landed just as the FOMC's two most senior voices below the Chair (Williams and Jefferson) explicitly argued for patience and "no urgency" to hike in October, which multiple named economists (Jefferies' Simons, Wharton's El-Erian) say effectively takes an October hike off the table, with the debate shifting to whether a hike instead comes in December. NOT FOUND: No official FOMC statement or minutes yet (meeting is Oct 27–28); could not confirm whether September/October CPI or PCE inflation prints (still pending) land hot enough to reverse the Williams/Jefferson signal before the meeting; could not independently verify a primary-source (Fed) statement from Williams or Jefferson beyond the Reuters/Bloomberg secondary reporting.

YES means: the FOMC's October 27–28, 2026 statement leaves the upper bound of the target federal funds range unchanged at 4.00% (no hike, no cut) versus the level set after the September 2026 meeting — i.e., a "no change" outcome, OR no statement is issued by the next meeting's end date (triggering the rules' default-to-no-change clause). - [2026-10-01] New York Fed President John Williams, a sitting FOMC vice chair, said in prepared remarks at the University at Buffalo that he believes the central bank has time to assess the economy before considering another rate increase , explicitly stating "there is no need for urgency" on changing policy (https://www.reuters.com via https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-may-time-next-interest-173209828.html). - [2026-10-01] Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson echoed that patience, saying "Any future adjustments in policy should be determined by carefully examining trends in the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks" in remarks at the Darden School of Business (https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-may-time-next-interest-173209828.html). - [2026-10-01] Evercore ISI analysts characterized this as an authoritative joint signal, noting "Jefferson 'has confirmed the message from NY Fed President Williams: the Fed does not expect to deliver a back-to-back rate hike at its coming October meeting,'" and that "we think the joint message from Jefferson and Williams is authoritative" given Chair Warsh's deliberate silence on near-term guidance (https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-may-time-next-interest-173209828.html). - [2026-10-01] The same Reuters dispatch reports that the Fed lifted its interest-rate target by a quarter percentage point at its mid-September meeting, to between 3.75% and 4% , establishing the unchanged baseline a "No" vote would need to beat; the article's headline itself states Fed officials "wash away market bets on October rate increase" (https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-may-time-next-interest-173209828.html). - [2026-09-29] Williams had already previewed this stance days earlier, with Bloomberg reporting Williams said one more interest-rate hike "late this year" may be appropriate, prompting investors to dial back expectations for an increase in October just before midterm elections, and underscored there was no urgency to act following the September hike (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-29/fed-s-williams-sees-one-more-interest-rate-hike-in-late-2026). - [2026-10-02] Market-implied odds moved decisively toward a hold following these speeches: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said policymakers may need more time before making another rate move, while markets cut the probability of an October hike to around 25%, after traders earlier considered another move much more likely (https://crypto.news/fed-officials-lean-toward-pausing-rate-hikes-in-october-could-bitcoin-benefit/). - [2026-10-02] The same report notes market attention has shifted to the following meeting instead of October, stating attention has instead moved toward December as a possible window for another rate increase — i.e., even hawkish voices are reportedly timing their next move for December, not October, which argues for a hold at this specific meeting (https://crypto.news/fed-officials-lean-toward-pausing-rate-hikes-in-october-could-bitcoin-benefit/). - [2026-09-29] Even in the more hawkish Williams speech reported by Admirals, he stated an additional hike by year-end "looked like a reasonable way of thinking about it" but added he would keep collecting data before deciding, and that explicit forward guidance belonged to a past era — language consistent with deferring action rather than committing to hike at the very next meeting (https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-williams-speech-september-29-2026). - [2026-09-30 to 10-02] Dispersion across trackers (CME FedWatch ~62-75% hold, Kalshi/Polymarket ~84% hold per earlier team reports) had already been shifting toward "hold" before these two speeches were even fully priced in; given Williams and Jefferson are voting FOMC members whose remarks are the most proximate, most authoritative inputs into futures pricing, their coordinated "patience" message is a mechanism-level reason to expect further convergence toward hold, not a one-off blip. - [Historical pattern] Within 2026, "no change" was already the modal outcome (5 of 6 meetings held per colleagues' base-rate research), and status-quo inertia — doing nothing is the default absent a clear data-driven case — favors a repeat hold unless incoming data between now and October 28 forces the Committee's hand; no such decisive new inflation or labor shock has been reported in this search window. - [Resolution-criteria technicality] The contract's own rules state that the next Fed meeting runs October 27 through 28, marking the seventh gathering of 2026 , and per the question's stated rules, if no statement is released by the end of the next scheduled meeting the market defaults to the "No change" bracket — an additional structural backstop favoring NO even in a tail scenario of delay or disruption. - [2026-09-16] Notably, the September hike itself came only after markets had already priced it at high confidence for weeks (92% per Schwab, cited by colleagues) — the current ~25% hike pricing for October is far below that pre-September threshold, suggesting the Committee is unlikely to spring a surprise hike without first re-building similar market conviction, which has not happened as of Oct 2. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case for NO (meaning a hold, i.e., "no change" in Fed rates after October) rests on an unusually direct and coordinated signal from two sitting FOMC voters (Williams and Jefferson) on October 1 that explicitly talked markets down from pricing an October hike, pushing implied hike odds to roughly 25% and shifting tightening expectations to December; combined with 2026's "hold is the modal outcome" pattern and the contract's own default-to-no-change fallback clause, the evidence leans toward NO (hold) being the more probable outcome, though a material minority (~20-35%) hike risk persists given elevated inflation and a hawkish Chair Warsh. NOT FOUND: No confirmation of any post-October-1 (i.e., Oct 2-3) speech or data release that reverses the Williams/Jefferson "patience" signal; no primary Fed source (beyond the colleagues' cited speech) giving Warsh's own personal view on the October timing specifically; no updated CME FedWatch or Polymarket/Kalshi snapshot dated after October 2 was found in this search window.