250 or more locally acquired dengue cases in Florida during 2026

- [2026-09-20] Florida Department of Health Week 36 arbovirus report: forty-one cases of locally acquired dengue were reported in the week of Sept 6-12, bringing the 2026 total to 152 cases of locally acquired dengue and 16 mosquito pools reported from six counties . https://www.floridahealth.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/fl-arbovirus-report-w36-2026.pdf - [2026-09-27] FL DOH Week 37 report (Sept 13-19): thirty-eight cases of locally acquired dengue were reported that week, bringing the 2026 total to 190 cases of locally acquired dengue and 17 mosquito pools from six counties . https://www.floridahealth.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/fl-arbovirus-report-w37-2026.pdf - [2026-09-27] Breakdown by county for 2026: 190 cases of locally acquired dengue have been reported in Hillsborough (170), Miami-Dade (7), Orange (3), Palm Beach, Pasco (2), and Pinellas (7) , with Hillsborough rising from 134 to 170 week-over-week. https://www.medicaldaily.com/florida-local-dengue-190-cases-september-2026-479189 - [2026-09-29] Medical Daily reporting on Week 37 data noted the September count is likely to rise, since symptoms start before a person is tested and the case is reported, so illnesses that began in late September may not appear until later reports . https://www.medicaldaily.com/florida-local-dengue-190-cases-september-2026-479189 - [2026-09-24] Hillsborough County declared a local state of emergency amid the outbreak; the state's first dengue death of 2026 was reported, an 80-year-old Hillsborough County woman died of dengue complications on Sept. 4 . https://www.medicaldaily.com/florida-local-dengue-190-cases-september-2026-479189 - [2026-10-02] News report (WINK News) citing the DOH's Week 38 arbovirus surveillance report states Florida has reported 252 locally acquired dengue cases in 2026, according to the Florida Department of Health's Week 38 arbovirus surveillance report, with Hillsborough County accounting for 223 of those cases . https://www.winknews.com/news/southwest_florida/hillsborough-extends-dengue-emergency-as-florida-cases-climb-to-252/article_f1440deb-25a0-41b6-b0ff-0ea19663acda.html - [2026-10-02] Same article: the Florida Department of Health reported 62 locally acquired dengue cases statewide during the week of Sept. 20 through Sept. 26 , and Hillsborough officials extended their local emergency declaration due to continued mosquito surveillance showing dengue virus activity. https://www.winknews.com/news/southwest_florida/hillsborough-extends-dengue-emergency-as-florida-cases-climb-to-252/article_f1440deb-25a0-41b6-b0ff-0ea19663acda.html - [2026-09-28] As of the official FL DOH Arbovirus Surveillance webpage's last-modified timestamp, the newest standalone weekly PDF formally posted was still Week 37 (Sept. 13-19); the Week 38 PDF had not yet appeared as a direct link on the page at time of check, though its figures (252 cases) are already being cited by news media. https://www.floridahealth.gov/statistics-data/population-surveillance/arbovirus-surveillance/ - [2026-09-23] CDC's national arbovirus dashboard (ArboNET-derived), covering all travel statuses (not just locally acquired), showed Florida recorded 392 dengue cases among residents so far in 2026, with Hillsborough County having 177 cases in the CDC data updated Sept. 23, Miami-Dade 132, Pinellas 8, and Lee 8 — this CDC figure mixes travel-associated and local cases and is not directly comparable to the DOH's "locally acquired" count used for this market. https://www.mysuncoast.com/2026/09/24/florida-reports-392-dengue-cases-2026-cdc-data-show/ - [2026-09-20] Comparison to prior years: Florida's locally acquired dengue count had already far exceeded the full-year totals of 2022 (68) and 2025 (62, per one secondary source) by mid-September 2026, reflecting an unusually intense outbreak season. https://www.travelbughealth.com/bug-bites/dengue-florida-locally-acquired-2026/ BOTTOM LINE: As of the most recent DOH-sourced figures (Week 38, through ~Sept. 26, 2026), Florida's 2026 locally acquired dengue count stands at roughly 252, already above the 250-case threshold in this contract, driven by a severe Hillsborough County outbreak (223+ cases) that prompted a local emergency declaration; with cases still accumulating weekly (62 new in the week of Sept 20-26 alone) and reporting lags meaning counts typically revise upward, the 250 threshold appears very likely to have already been met or is imminent, pending official confirmation of the Week 38 report on the DOH site. NOT FOUND: The standalone official FL DOH Week 38 arbovirus surveillance PDF (Sept. 20-26, 2026) was not yet directly retrievable from floridahealth.gov at the time of research (the site's listed/linked PDFs went up to Week 37); the 252-case figure is corroborated by a credible news report citing that DOH report but could not be independently cross-checked against the primary PDF.

- [2022-12-31] Florida recorded 68 locally acquired dengue cases for the full year 2022, the modern-era low before the 2023 surge. In all of 2022, Florida saw 68 locally acquired dengue cases. (outbreaknewstoday.substack.com) - [2023-12-30] The 2023 season (driven almost entirely by Miami-Dade) ended with 176 locally acquired cases, at the time a record and a 159% jump over 2022. Locally acquired cases rise to 176 in five counties through December 30... This brings the total autochthonous cases in the state to 176 in 2023. The number of confirmed local dengue cases this year is a 159 percent increase compared to the 68 cases reported in 2022. A later report put the final 2023 count slightly higher at 186. In 2023, 186 cases of locally acquired dengue were reported in Broward (4), Hardee (19), Miami-Dade (161), Palm Beach, and Polk counties. (outbreaknewstoday.substack.com) - [2024-01-04] 2024 ended far lower than 2023, with Florida's own case trackers showing roughly 87-91 locally acquired cases across the year. In 2024, 91 cases of locally acquired dengue have been reported from ten counties- Broward (2), Hillsborough (7), Manatee (9), Miami-Dade (50), Monroe (3), Orange (2), Palm Beach (3), Pasco (13), Polk (1), and Sarasota (1). None of 2022-2025 came close to 250. (outbreaknewstoday.substack.com) - [2026-08-19] 2025 was an even quieter year, finishing at 62 locally acquired cases statewide. In 2025, Florida reported 62 locally acquired dengue cases. (outbreaknewstoday.substack.com) - [2026-02-28] Reflecting typical seasonality, the Week 8 (late February) 2026 FDOH report showed zero locally acquired cases so far that year. Dengue Cases Acquired in Florida: No cases of locally acquired dengue were reported this week. In 2026, no cases of locally acquired dengue have been reported. (floridahealth.gov) - [2026-09-05] By Week 35 (Aug 30–Sep 5), the official FDOH surveillance report already showed 111 cumulative locally acquired cases, roughly double several prior full-year totals. 2026 Dengue Cases Acquired in Florida: In 2026, 111 cases of locally acquired dengue have been reported (floridahealth.gov) - [2026-09-12] Week 36 report: cumulative total jumped to 152 cases from six counties, with the state adding 41 cases in that single week alone. Dengue Cases Acquired in Florida: Forty-one cases of locally acquired dengue were reported this week. In 2026, 152 cases of locally acquired dengue and 16 mosquito pools have been reported from six counties. (floridahealth.gov) - [2026-09-19] Week 37 report: cumulative total reached 190 cases, with Hillsborough County alone accounting for 170. Dengue Cases Acquired in Florida: Thirty-eight cases of locally acquired dengue were reported this week. In 2026, 190 cases of locally acquired dengue and 17 mosquito pools have been reported from six counties. (floridahealth.gov) - [2026-10-02] By Week 38 (through Sept. 26), FDOH's Arbovirus Surveillance Report put the cumulative 2026 locally acquired total at 252 — already above the 250 threshold — with 223 of those in Hillsborough County alone, and news coverage noting 62 new local cases reported that single week. The Florida Department of Health's Arbovirus Surveillance Report listed the total number of locally acquired cases at 252, with an additional 245 acquired outside of the United States...223 cases of dengue fever have been reported in the county this year. (wfla.com / winknews.com) - [2026-10-02] Hillsborough County's local state of emergency was extended as the outbreak continued, with county officials citing ongoing mosquito surveillance evidence of active virus circulation, underscoring that transmission has not yet stopped. The extension comes as Florida has reported 252 locally acquired dengue cases in 2026, Hillsborough County accounts for 223 of those cases...County Administrator Bonnie Wise signed the extension after Hillsborough officials said mosquito surveillance in multiple neighborhoods continued to show dengue virus activity. (winknews.com) - [2025-08-19] By comparison, at the same point in the 2025 season (mid-August), Florida had only 14 cumulative locally acquired cases statewide, illustrating how exceptional the 2026 outbreak trajectory is relative to the prior year. According to the Department of Health, with the addition of four additional locally acquired dengue cases in the state, the total has risen to 14- Brevard (11), Hillsborough, and Miami-Dade (2) counties...In 2025, 154 travel-associated dengue cases have been reported. (outbreaknewstoday.substack.com) BOTTOM LINE: Historically, Florida's annual locally acquired dengue totals (68 in 2022, 176-186 in 2023, ~87-91 in 2024, 62 in 2025) never approached 250, making the base rate for a 250+ year essentially nil in the last four seasons. However, 2026 is a clear statistical outlier driven by a concentrated Hillsborough County outbreak, and official FDOH weekly surveillance data already put the cumulative count at 252 as of the Week 38 report (through Sept. 26), meaning the threshold has very likely already been crossed on the primary source the market will use, even before accounting for any further cases or late reporting/backdating through January. NOT FOUND: An official, finalized (post-season) 2026 annual tally from FDOH (the Week 38/39+ reports are the latest available); no explicit Kalshi-specific "Source Agency" designation details beyond the general FDOH arbovirus reports; no independent betting-market or expert quantitative forecast specifically for the 250-case threshold.

YES means: Florida's Department of Health (or whichever Source Agency is designated primary) reports a cumulative 2026 locally-acquired dengue case count of 250 or more at any point on/before the January 31, 2027 Expiration Date determination. - [2026-10-02] The most current cited DOH data point — the Week 38 Arbovirus Surveillance Report (covering through Sept. 26) — already puts Florida's 2026 locally acquired dengue total at 252, with Hillsborough County alone contributing 223 cases, directly clearing the 250 threshold named in this contract. https://www.winknews.com/news/southwest_florida/hillsborough-extends-dengue-emergency-as-florida-cases-climb-to-252/article_f1440deb-25a0-41b6-b0ff-0ea19663acda.html - [2026-09-28/10-02] Florida DOH's own Arbovirus Surveillance index page lists "Week 38 – September 14-20" as the newest entry in its "2026" weekly-report list, confirming that a DOH-generated Week 38 report (the source behind the 252 figure) exists and is the department's most recent data release in the official report sequence, not merely a secondary-source fabrication. https://www.floridahealth.gov/statistics-data/population-surveillance/arbovirus-surveillance/ - [2026-09-19] Even using only the fully-verified, directly fetched DOH PDF data (Week 37, through Sept. 19), the cumulative count already stood at 190 with Hillsborough contributing 170 of those; the pace of weekly additions in the two prior reports was 38 (Week 35) and 41 (Week 36) cases, a run-rate that alone would cross 250 within roughly two more weekly cycles even without the Week 38 jump. https://www.floridahealth.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/fl-arbovirus-report-w37-2026.pdf - [2026-09-25] An independent academic source (Northeastern University, citing direct DOH communication) corroborates that Florida's locally acquired case count is "clearly elevated" relative to the past decade, particularly in Tampa Bay/Hillsborough, supporting the plausibility of a rapid additional ~60-case jump from Week 37 to Week 38. https://news.northeastern.edu/2026/09/25/dengue-fever-florida-outbreak/ - [2026-10-02] Hillsborough County's local state of emergency was extended rather than lifted, with county officials citing continued mosquito-surveillance evidence of active dengue virus circulation in multiple neighborhoods — indicating the outbreak engine (not just backlog reporting) is still live heading into October, raising the likelihood that the true 2026 total will settle meaningfully above 250 once Weeks 39+ are tallied. https://www.winknews.com/news/southwest_florida/hillsborough-extends-dengue-emergency-as-florida-cases-climb-to-252/article_f1440deb-25a0-41b6-b0ff-0ea19663acda.html - [2026-09-23] A parallel CDC ArboNET dataset (all travel statuses combined) shows Florida residents with 392 total dengue cases as of Sept. 23, with Hillsborough County's share (177) and Miami-Dade's (132) both still rising — while not the "locally acquired" metric used by this contract, it indicates a large reservoir of cases from which additional locally acquired classifications could still be confirmed/backdated into the 2026 tally during the resolution window. https://www.mysuncoast.com/2026/09/24/florida-reports-392-dengue-cases-2026-cdc-data-show/ - [2026-09-29] Reporting lag is structurally built into the system: onset-to-report delay means cases with September onset dates continue to be added to weekly totals for several weeks afterward, so even a complete halt in new transmission today would still allow backdated additions to push the cumulative count further past 250 before the January 31 determination date. https://www.medicaldaily.com/florida-local-dengue-190-cases-september-2026-479189 BOTTOM LINE: The single most likely path to YES has effectively already materialized: DOH's Week 38 Arbovirus Surveillance Report (through Sept. 26, 2026), corroborated by Hillsborough's extended emergency declaration and a still-active transmission chain, puts the 2026 locally acquired dengue count at 252 — above the 250 threshold — and ongoing weekly additions plus routine backdated case reporting make it highly likely the final count will be confirmed and even rise further by the January 2027 determination date. NOT FOUND: The standalone official FL DOH Week 38 PDF (fl-arbovirus-report-w38-2026.pdf) could not be directly retrieved/fetched (only referenced on the DOH site's report index and via secondary news citation); no Week 39 report or updated case count beyond Oct. 2 news coverage was found.

YES means: the real-world outcome where Florida's 2026 locally acquired dengue case count, as determined by the market's designated Source Agency at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (Jan 31, 2027), is 250 or more. My dimension argues the case for NO (the count failing to reach/hold at 250+). - [2026-09-28] The Florida Department of Health's own Arbovirus Surveillance webpage, last modified Sept. 28, 2026, still listed **Week 37 (Sept. 13–19)** as the newest 2026 weekly PDF; no Week 38 (Sept. 20–26) report naming "252 cases" had yet been posted as a standalone document at the site's canonical listing, meaning the 252-figure circulating in news is not yet independently verifiable against the primary FDOH PDF series used in prior weeks. https://www.floridahealth.gov/statistics-data/population-surveillance/arbovirus-surveillance/ - [2026-09-24] Pinellas County's own emergency-declaration resolution, citing FDOH data, stated that alongside 143 confirmed tri-county cases, health officials were still investigating "21 potential cases, including several commercial exposures that remain pending confirmation and jurisdictional assignment" — demonstrating that a meaningful share of case tallies cited in real time are provisional and could later be reclassified (e.g., to travel-associated, out-of-state exposure, or non-qualifying) rather than confirmed local cases. https://pinellas.gov/executive-orders/dengue-fever-state-of-local-emergency-resolution-no-26-76 - [2026-09-23] CDC's ArboNET dashboard, a parallel federal "Source Agency" candidate, showed Hillsborough County with only 177 total dengue cases (all travel statuses combined) as of Sept. 23 — materially lower than the DOH's locally-acquired-only Hillsborough count of 223 reported for roughly the same period — illustrating that different "Source Agencies" can produce conflicting counts, creating resolution ambiguity if CDC data (which mixes travel and local, and reports by county of residence not exposure) were invoked under the rules' agency-prioritization clause. https://www.mysuncoast.com/2026/09/24/florida-reports-392-dengue-cases-2026-cdc-data-show/ - [2026-09-23] The CDC explicitly cautions that its dengue surveillance data undercounts and overcounts inconsistently: "Cases of mild illness are more likely to be underreported" and county totals reflect "county of residence, not the location...of exposure," underscoring structural uncertainty in any federal cross-check of the Florida total. https://www.cdc.gov/dengue/data-research/facts-stats/current-data.html - [2026-09-21] Hillsborough County's own mosquito-control officials reported a concrete sign of outbreak deceleration: positive dengue mosquito pools, which had held at 16 for four consecutive weeks, dropped to zero in each of the two most recent weeks, which officials attributed to intensified Aedes aegypti control efforts — a leading indicator that new human-case generation could slow sharply in the final quarter. https://baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2026/09/21/hillsborough-county-reports-drop-in-dengue-positive-mosquito-pools-but-urges-continued-precautions - [2026-10-02] Even the most recent reporting on the 252-case figure flags continued data instability: WUSF's own coverage states plainly that "health officials say undercounts are likely," which cuts both ways — case-finding could add cases, but it also confirms the headline total is explicitly described by officials as a moving, imprecise estimate rather than a settled figure. https://www.wusf.org/health-news-florida/2026-10-02/hillsborough-lee-counties-team-up-control-dengue-fever - [2026-10-01] Local outbreak messaging (USF researcher, cited mid-September) suggested optimism that case counts "could see cases start to go down...in a few weeks due to all the mosquito control work," and by Oct. 1 three counties (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco) had intensified aerial/ground spraying and interjurisdictional mosquito-control cooperation (Lee County sending helicopters), representing an active, resourced public-health response aimed specifically at halting further local transmission before Q4. https://baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2026/10/01/hillsborough-county-expands-mosquito-spraying-as-dengue-response-continues - [2022-2025 base rate] In the four most recent full seasons, Florida's locally acquired dengue total never came close to 250 (68, 176–186, ~87–91, and 62 cases respectively), so historically the state's surveillance and reporting apparatus has never had to sustain a confirmed count anywhere near this threshold through a full reporting/verification cycle, leaving no precedent for how robust a 250+ figure is to late-season revision. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case rests on process and measurement uncertainty rather than the trend itself: the headline "252" figure driving this market is sourced from news coverage of a DOH weekly update that, as of the last verifiable check, had not yet been posted as a citable primary PDF, some portion of reported cases are explicitly described by local officials as "pending confirmation and jurisdictional assignment" and subject to reclassification, and a federal data source (CDC) shows a materially lower count for the same period — combined with concrete evidence (zero positive mosquito pools in Hillsborough for two straight weeks) that the outbreak's transmission engine may already be cooling as control efforts intensify. NOT FOUND: An officially published, standalone FDOH Week 38 (Sept. 20–26, 2026) arbovirus PDF confirming the 252-case figure directly from floridahealth.gov; any explicit statement of which "Source Agency" Kalshi's rules designate as primary/tie-breaking between FDOH and CDC data; any documented historical instance of FDOH revising a locally-acquired dengue case count downward after initial weekly reporting.