Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

- [2026-08-03/04] Gov. Greg Abbott issued a directive (letter, not statute) announcing a moratorium on the approval of data centers until regulatory agencies can audit proposed data centers seeking connection to the state's electric grid , via gov.texas.gov. - [2026-08-04/05] Critics, including Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller and advocacy groups, said lawmakers should meet before the next regularly scheduled legislative session in 2027, arguing "absent a special session, the governor's powers are limited" (tpr.org). - [2026-09-21] Abbott expanded the executive moratorium: Abbott directed the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) to halt all permits sought by data centers until the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) completes its audit (gov.texas.gov press release). - [2026-09-21] This TCEQ directive requires an update on compliance "by Monday, October 19, 2026," and states "Next session, Governor Abbott will work with the Legislature to eliminate any financial incentives for data centers" — confirming the Governor is deferring statutory action to the 2027 session, not seeking a special session (gov.texas.gov). - [2026-09-23] Locally, the Lubbock City Council voted 5-2 to initiate the state-required process for a 90-day moratorium on rezoning, building permit and annexation applications for large-scale data centers — a local, not statewide, action (savrn.com tracker). - [2026-08-10] Analysts note Texas's Legislature is not in regular session. The 89th regular session ended June 2, 2025, and the 90th Legislature does not convene until January 12, 2027 (Data Center Frontier). - [2026-08-10] The same analysis states Abbott's August directive creates the framework for a broader legislative debate in 2027 while already affecting projects seeking ERCOT interconnection... [but] is not a substitute for legislation. It operates through the ERCOT interconnection process... The directive also does not establish a permanent statutory framework, leaving broader questions of agency authority, reporting and development standards for the Legislature (Data Center Frontier). - [2026-07-08] E&E News reported that political analysts expected "It's unlikely that Abbott will call a special session to tackle data centers this year," said Brandon Rottinghaus, a professor of political science at the University of Houston , leaving the 2027 regular session as the main vehicle for any statutory moratorium. - [2026-07-27] An E&E News piece on legislative timing found that because the Texas Legislature isn't expected to meet again until early next year, the state likely can't do much to set limits... Without a special session, Kirby said, April or May 2027 is probably the earliest a new data center guardrail bill could go into effect — and that would require a two-thirds vote in both statehouse chambers to expedite the law . - [2026-09-08] Local moratoriums have proliferated (Hill County, Lewisville, Athens, Lubbock, Mesquite, Princeton, San Marcos, Corpus Christi, Laredo, Brownsville), but residents' mounting concerns about water usage, noise pollution and tax incentives have pushed Texas cities and municipalities to workshop individual regulatory frameworks, including zoning restrictions and outright bans — these are explicitly excluded from the question's "statewide" definition. - [2026-08-10] Legislative proposals being discussed for 2027 (tax exemption repeal, infrastructure cost-shifting, water reporting, cooling standards, setbacks) are all framed as conditions/regulations on data centers, not an outright prohibition/suspension of all new data centers above 100MW — no bill text proposing a true moratorium has been filed or previewed in any source found. - [2026-09-23] No special session has been called as of this date despite months of bipartisan pressure (Miller, Hinojosa, Public Citizen, Hays County, rally coalitions); Abbott has consistently signaled he will act via executive directive now and statute "next session" (2027). BOTTOM LINE: As of October 2, 2026, Texas has an executive/administrative "moratorium" (grid-interconnection pause plus TCEQ permit halt) that does not qualify under the question's enactment requirement, no special session has been called, and the earliest realistic vehicle for any statutory data-center measure is the 90th Legislature convening January 12, 2027, with substantive bills unlikely to pass before spring 2027 — and those bills, as currently previewed (tax/cost/reporting reforms), do not appear to be drafted as an outright statewide moratorium. NOT FOUND: No filed bill text (pre-filed for the 2027 session) explicitly establishing a statewide moratorium on new data center approvals/construction/interconnection; no announcement of a special session being called; no Legislative Reference Library record of a moratorium bill passing either chamber.

- [2026-10-01] Comprehensive nationwide tracker found that 43 states have some form of active data center ban or moratorium, but only New York currently has a "statewide moratorium in force," via Executive Order No. 62 — not a statute , and its companion bill (S10642/A11560) remains unsigned by the governor. No US state has yet enacted a statewide moratorium through the statutory/constitutional route the Polymarket rules require. (https://programs.com/resources/data-center-moratoriums-tracker/) - [2026-06-10] As of mid-2026, 14 states have considered or are considering a moratorium on data centers , and among these only Maine's legislature managed to actually pass a bill (LD 307); Maine's legislature was the first to pass a moratorium on data centers rated above 20 MW until November 2027, but Governor Janet Mills vetoed the bill , and the tracker confirms a veto-override attempt failed 72-65. This is the closest any state has come to a true statutory moratorium, and it failed. (https://www.rockinst.org/blog/updates-on-the-cloud-more-moratoriums-on-data-centers/) - [2026-10-01] Across roughly 20+ state-level statutory moratorium bills introduced in 2025-26 (NY, MD, VA, GA, SD, OK, MI, MN, NH, PA, SC, VT, WI, CT, RI, IN), the vast majority "died," "stalled," or were "killed in committee/House," with Virginia's HB1515 merely carried over to 2027 and New York's bill the only one to pass both chambers (still unsigned). This indicates an extremely low historical success rate for statutory enactment of statewide moratoriums — effectively 0% completed enactments to date. (https://programs.com/resources/data-center-moratoriums-tracker/) - [2026-10-01] Texas itself is listed with status "Active — ERCOT interconnection audit," with "None" under statewide moratorium bills (2025-26); its only state-level data center restriction action has been Governor Abbott's executive-agency directives (TCEQ permit freeze, ERCOT/PUCT audit pause), not legislation. (https://programs.com/resources/data-center-moratoriums-tracker/) - [2026-10-02] Texas Gov. Abbott's August 2026 moratorium was explicitly an executive directive (letter to TCEQ, ERCOT/PUCT pause pending audits), not a bill; an advocacy group said "Absent a special session, the governor's powers are limited," noting "The legislature's next regular session is in five months, putting any legislation signed into law nearly a year away from having any impact." (https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/technology/2026/08/04/558663/data-centers-texas-governor-greg-abbott-moratorium-special-legislative-session/) - [2026-07-30] A political-science expert assessment found "It's unlikely that Abbott will call a special session to tackle data centers this year," said Brandon Rottinghaus, a professor of political science at the University of Houston , with Abbott instead directing the matter to the 2027 regular session. (https://www.eenews.net/articles/texas-data-center-critics-push-for-special-session-2/) - [2026-06-?] Base rate on timing: Texas is a biennial-legislature state; the Senate and House of the Texas Legislature meet every other odd-numbered year, with a regular session 140 days in length, beginning on the second Tuesday in January , meaning the only regular session falling within the question window is January 12 – May 31, 2027 (confirmed by multiple sources as the 90th Legislature). (https://www.thln.org/legislation-basics) - [2026-08-?] Texas legislative leadership has signaled data centers will be a major 2027 agenda item, but with a regulatory/cost-allocation/tax framing rather than an outright moratorium: House Speaker Burrows directed the State Affairs committee to recommend ways to "streamline" regulations on data center development "while enabling communities to plan and manage growth responsibly," and told the Natural Resources committee to examine total water usage to "optimize water resources." This framing (streamlining, cost-sharing, water studies) more closely resembles the many other states' outcomes (tax/cost measures, studies) than a hard moratorium. (https://www.texastribune.org/2026/03/26/texas-house-speaker-dustin-burrows-interim-charges-new-mexico-data-centers-property-taxes/) - [2026-08-05] Texas political dynamics show a split: pro-industry Governor Abbott and business-aligned Republicans favor guardrails/cost measures, while a rural GOP faction plus Democrats (including gubernatorial nominee Hinojosa) are pushing harder measures; Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller (R) criticized Abbott's directive as "all hat and no cattle — empty political rhetoric," saying "Texans need laws with teeth, not another press release" — reflecting pressure for a moratorium bill to be filed, but no bill has yet been introduced per the tracker. (https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/technology/2026/08/04/558663/data-centers-texas-governor-greg-abbott-moratorium-special-legislative-session/) - [2023] Precedent for legal obstacles to even local Texas moratoriums: a 2023 state law blocking local governments from regulating beyond state limits (HB 2127) sets up a legal clash , and this preemption law was specifically cited by a state senator to block Hood County's attempted local moratorium — illustrating that the Texas legislature's prior instinct has been to limit, not expand, moratorium-style authority. (https://www.credaily.com/briefs/texas-data-center-moratoriums-spread-as-backlash-grows/) BOTTOM LINE: The relevant reference class — roughly 20+ state-level statutory data center moratorium bills introduced nationwide in 2025-26 — has produced zero completed statutory enactments; the furthest any got was Maine's legislature passing one, only for the governor to veto it and an override to fail. Texas has not even had a moratorium bill filed yet, its only window for action before the Dec 31, 2027 deadline is the Jan-May 2027 regular session (absent an unlikely special session), and its governor and legislative leadership are currently oriented toward "guardrails"/cost-allocation reforms rather than an outright moratorium, all of which points to a low base-rate probability of enactment. NOT FOUND: No polling, prediction-market, or expert quantitative forecast specifically estimating the odds of a Texas statutory moratorium; no evidence of any Texas moratorium bill having been filed as of early October 2026; no confirmation of Hochul's final action (sign/veto) on the NY legislative bill, which would be the only near-complete precedent for comparison.

YES means: Texas's state government enacts (governor signs, or otherwise completes the constitutional path for) a statute or constitutional provision that mandatorily prohibits/suspends approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of new data centers statewide (or of the >100MW subset) before Dec 31, 2027 — even if conditioned on an objectively determinable trigger (e.g., an audit's completion) rather than permanent. - [2026-09-21] Abbott's own executive directives have already moved from a grid-interconnection pause to directing the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) to halt all permits sought by data centers until ERCOT completes its audit, with no state agency to move forward with regulatory approvals related to data center development until that information is acquired — showing the administration is already operating, and comfortable operating, exactly the kind of "suspend-until-condition-met" framework the resolution criteria explicitly says would qualify if enacted by statute. (gov.texas.gov) - [2026-09-21] The same press release confirms Abbott intends to convert this into law: "Next session, Governor Abbott will work with the Legislature to eliminate any financial incentives for data centers." A Republican governor and GOP legislative majority aligned on curbing data centers removes the normal veto-point risk that sank Maine's moratorium bill. (gov.texas.gov) - [2026-09-25] Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa's official platform, as cataloged by the Texas Tribune, states she "Supports a moratorium on new data centers until lawmakers pass legislation to give communities more protections and end data center tax breaks" — meaning whichever major-party candidate wins the November 2026 election enters office already publicly committed to a moratorium framework, raising the odds a moratorium bill gets executive backing in the 2027 session regardless of outcome. (texastribune.org) - [2026-09-02] Hinojosa has gone further than Abbott, telling AP News that if she is elected, she would block a permit for any data center that did not benefit residents or if residents didn't have a say — a discretionary-but-sweeping anti-permitting stance that, if translated into a default-prohibition statute by an allied legislature, would satisfy the question's "default prohibited" test. - [2026-08-05] Cross-partisan pressure for "teeth" legislation is documented beyond Abbott's own party: Republican Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller said "Without legislative action, this directive is all hat and no cattle — empty political rhetoric wrapped in meaningless fluff... Texans need laws with teeth, not another press release designed to make it look like something is being done while hyperscale projects continue moving forward" — indicating rural-GOP appetite exists for a harder statutory measure than Abbott's agency directives, which could push the 2027 bill language toward an actual moratorium rather than mere tax/cost reform. (houstonpublicmedia.org) - [2026-07-27] A law firm partner representing data-center clients, Chris Kirby, confirmed the procedural path exists for fast enactment within the window: "Without a special session, Kirby said, April or May 2027 is probably the earliest a new data center guardrail bill could go into effect — and that would require a two-thirds vote in both statehouse chambers to expedite the law" — meaning a bill, even one not filed yet, could be signed well before the Dec 31, 2027 deadline if it secures the supermajority needed for immediate effect (and even without that, enactment via ordinary signature would still fall inside the window). (eenews.net) - [2026-07-27] Texas has institutional precedent for passing binding, even retroactive, emergency legislation under crisis framing: the same report notes a state senator's view that the Texas Legislature can pass retroactive laws "in rare and extraordinary circumstances," though such laws are normally illegal under the Texas Constitution "unless necessary to safeguard public safety and welfare" — a legal theory the grid-reliability/water-scarcity framing around data centers could invoke to justify an unusually sweeping statutory suspension. - [2026-10-01] Nationally, the moratorium-bill wave has already produced one bill (New York's) that has no data-center moratorium in force at the federal level, but at the state level New York's companion bill passed both chambers and remains pending signature (per the broader tracker), demonstrating that in at least one large, data-center-heavy state a statutory moratorium bill can clear both chambers — a template Texas legislators opposed to data centers could replicate, especially with Abbott's own agencies having normalized the "pause pending audit" concept. - [2026-09-23] Local momentum keeps generating political pressure that could spill into statewide action: the Lubbock City Council's 5-2 vote to begin a citizen-petitioned 90-day moratorium process, and Denton's two public hearings on a proposed moratorium (first held Sept. 23, second set for Oct. 27), show organized, replicable moratorium campaigns spreading across Texas cities just as the Legislature's interim committees finalize recommendations for the January session. (savrn.com) - [2026-09-08] Texas has more than 335 operating data centers and 247 proposals, and residents' mounting concerns about water usage, noise pollution and tax incentives have pushed Texas cities and municipalities toward zoning restrictions and outright bans — the sheer scale of the buildout and backlash gives legislators a concrete, high-salience justification for a hard statewide suspension rather than only "guardrail" reforms, especially with the issue featured heavily in the fall 2026 election cycle. (therealdeal.com) - [2026-09-21] CNBC reported analyst estimates that Abbott's pause already puts "almost 20% of the U.S.'s 253-GW data center pipeline" at risk, or nearly 50 gigawatts in proposed data center capacity, which could result in upwards of $8 billion in data center revenue losses by Q1 2027 — showing the executive-level moratorium already has real economic bite, which legislators could choose to simply codify rather than let lapse, especially if ERCOT's audit is not finished by the time the session convenes. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is that Abbott (already governing via a condition-based grid/permit suspension he says he'll convert into law) and a bipartisan, rural-backed legislative bloc — further empowered if Hinojosa, who ran explicitly on a moratorium, wins in November — use the two-thirds expedited-bill mechanism in the Jan–May 2027 regular session to pass and sign a statute that keeps data-center approvals suspended "until" an objectively verifiable condition (e.g., ERCOT/TCEQ audit completion or grid-capacity certification) is met, which the resolution criteria treat as a qualifying moratorium even though it is not an outright permanent ban. NOT FOUND: No filed bill text of a statewide moratorium as of Oct 2, 2026; no confirmation of the Texas governor's race outcome (election is Nov 2026, after this report); no evidence a special session before January 2027 has been called or is imminent.

YES means: Texas enacts, via statute or constitutional amendment (not executive/agency order), a mandatory, facially binding statewide prohibition or suspension on the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers (or all those with >100 MW interconnection capacity), with the condition for ending the suspension objectively determinable rather than agency-discretion-based, on or before December 31, 2027. - [2026-06-22] Governor Abbott's own stated 2027 legislative priorities — detailed in a letter to the PUC/ERCOT — are limited to cost-allocation rules, water-efficient cooling mandates, grid-capacity add-on requirements, siting/setback rules, and repeal of sales-tax exemptions; Governor Abbott directed the Public Utility Commission of Texas to ensure data centers pay for their own electric infrastructure and interconnection costs so residential ratepayers are not burdened, and his 2027 legislative priorities include requiring data centers to use water-efficient cooling systems, add to the state's electric capacity, meet siting and setback requirements, and repealing sales tax exemptions for data centers. He did not propose a data center moratorium. (multistate.us) - [2026-09-22] The current executive-branch "moratorium" already has carve-outs that keep it from functioning as a generalized prohibition: Many projects have been able to side-step Abbott's so-called moratorium by building projects that supply their own power and electric infrastructure and avoid connecting to the grid. (Dallas Morning News, via search snippet) - [2026-09-22] Abbott's Democratic gubernatorial opponent, who favors a formal moratorium, has publicly predicted the executive pause is politically timed and temporary: State Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin), this year's Democratic nominee in the race, accused incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott, her political opponent, of "start[ing] the data center madness in Texas" and challenged him to call a special session to address the issue. Then, earlier this month, Abbott asked these agencies to audit all data center projects in the process of connecting to the Texas grid. — i.e., even the pro-moratorium flank frames the current action as insufficient political theater rather than durable law. (thetexan.news) - [2026-09-??] A separate report quotes Hinojosa predicting the pause "goes away the day after the election, Nov. 4," underscoring that no actor currently in power is treating even the executive freeze as a lasting restriction, let alone planning a statutory one. - [2026-09-??] Interim legislative charges feeding the 2027 session are explicitly framed around streamlining and studies, not prohibition: House Speaker Burrows's charges to State Affairs and Natural Resources (cited by colleagues) ask committees to "streamline" regulation and study water "to optimize water resources" — a regulate-and-grow posture, not a ban. - [2027 calendar] Primary legislative-calendar sources confirm bill **pre-filing opens November 9, 2026**, the session convenes **January 12, 2027**, the **last day to file bills is March 12, 2027**, and the session adjourns sine die **May 31, 2027** — giving a defined, narrow window in which any statutory moratorium would have to be filed and passed, well before the Dec 31, 2027 deadline, but as of this writing no moratorium bill text has been filed or previewed by any legislator for that window. - [2026-04/06/2026] Interim hearing tracking (House State Affairs, April 9 and May 6; Senate State Affairs/Natural Resources, June 23) on data centers focused on "economic growth, national security role, workforce training, regulatory streamlining, grid and water impacts under SB 6 and ERCOT processes" — again policy-shaping language, not moratorium drafting (per Legislature-watcher roundup). - [2026-04/06] Nationally, Good Jobs First's tracker counts at least 12 in-session states with filed data center moratorium bills this cycle , yet — as colleagues note — none nationwide have completed statutory enactment; Texas is not even among the 12 with a filed bill, placing it behind the national front-runners in this already-stalled reference class. - [2026-10-??] Texas's only enacted 2025 legislative product on data centers remains SB6 (a grid-interconnection/cost-allocation framework), not a prohibition — reinforcing that the legislature's established 2025-26 instinct on this topic is regulatory conditioning, which the question's rules explicitly distinguish from a "permitted subject to conditions" regime that would NOT qualify as a moratorium. - [2026-09-23] Even the most aggressive *local* Texas moratorium efforts (Fort Worth, Lubbock) are structured as time-limited (90-day, extendable) processes with exemptions for in-progress projects, suggesting any statewide analog modeled on these local templates would likely retain conditional/exemption-heavy "permitted subject to conditions" architecture that risks falling outside the strict "default prohibition" test in the resolution criteria. - [2025] Texas's 2023 preemption statute (HB 2127), cited by a state senator to block a local moratorium, reflects a broader GOP-legislature preference for limiting rather than expanding moratorium-style regulatory tools, a disposition that cuts against a GOP-controlled legislature and governor originating a true statewide ban in 2027. BOTTOM LINE: Every primary and legislative-tracking source confirms that neither the Governor's stated 2027 priorities nor the legislature's interim committee charges are drafted as an outright statutory prohibition — they target taxes, cost-allocation, water/siting rules, and audits — and no moratorium bill has been filed or previewed for the Nov. 2026–March 2027 filing window; combined with the zero-for-many national track record for statutory data-center moratoriums and the political framing of even the executive pause as temporary/election-timed, the preponderance of current evidence points to continued inertia toward "No." NOT FOUND: No pre-filed bill text (as pre-filing has not yet opened) proposing a true Texas statewide moratorium; no statement from Lt. Gov. Patrick, House Speaker Burrows, or any Senate/House committee chair endorsing an outright ban (as opposed to guardrails) for the 2027 session; no confirmation of whether the TCEQ/ERCOT/TWDB audits (due update Oct. 19, 2026) will be completed and the executive pause lifted before the 2027 session even begins.