Scan: Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.4 million available lower berth days in 2026?

1. Planner Opus 5.5 · picks the research tools

Tools chosen: kalshi_direct resolution_source kalshi_related earnings_data article_search

Planner reasoning

Carnival reports ALBDs quarterly and for the full year in its 10-K. FY2026 ends Nov 30, 2026, so Q1-Q3 data, guidance on capacity growth, and FY2025 ALBDs (about 96-97M) are the key anchors. Earnings data covers CCL fundamentals. Related Kalshi markets at other strike levels show the market's implied distribution.

2. Research parallel tool calls + 4 web research loops (Sonnet 5) · read raw by the forecasters

at a glance

RESEARCH DIGEST (built in code: tool summaries and each report's bottom line; the forecasters read the full tool outputs and reports) Tools - kalshi_direct: ## This Market's Kalshi Data **Above 97.4 million** (KXCCLA-28JANALBD-97400000.0) - Current price (probability): 24.00% (live; bid 22% / ask 24%) - 7-day price change: +3.00% - 30-day price change: +1.00% - Average daily volume: 439 contracts - Price range: 5.00% - 28.00% - Data points: 33 days - resolution_source: already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=False; last_updated=2026-09-29. The fetched pages show Carnival Corporation's investor relations page and SEC EDGAR 10-Q filing list, including filings through Q3 2026 (filed 2026-09-29), but no actual available lower berth days (ALBD) figures are provided in the fetched text for fiscal year 2026. - kalshi_related: 1 related markets / summaries. series KXCCLA: 0 markets (skipped 13 no-signal) | keyword 'Carnival lower berth days': ok - earnings_data: Fetched FMP data for 1 ticker(s). - article_search: Fetched 8 unique articles across 1 queries (lookback=60d). 'Carnival third quarter 2026 ALBDs available lower berth days capacity growth guidance': 8 articles Research loops, bottom lines - current state: Through three quarters of fiscal 2026, Carnival has reported 73.3 million ALBDs, and the company's own Q4 guidance (24.1 million) implies a full-year total of exactly 97.4 million — matching, not exceeding, the market's 97.4 million threshold; management's repeated emphasis on "flat" and "intentionally measured" capacity growth suggests the actual reported figure is likely to land at or very near 97.4 million, with any resolution to "Above" dependent on marginal rounding/beat versus the unchange - base rate: The reference class is narrow (Carnival's own quarterly ALBD guidance, which is a near-mechanical function of ship deployment schedules); historically (FY2025) actual ALBDs beat the original full-year guide by a small margin (~0.2%, i.e., 96.3M guided vs 96.5M actual), but FY2026 guidance of exactly 97.4 million has been reaffirmed unchanged across four consecutive quarterly releases and matched to the decimal through nine months, suggesting unusually high confidence and low historical variance - yes case: The single most plausible path to YES is a repeat of the FY2025 pattern — where original ALBD guidance was revised up during the year and the final actual matched the raised figure exactly — combined with Q4 FY2026's unusually heavy and already-volatile drydock schedule (AIDAmar, Freedom, Luminosa) whose further postponement past fiscal year-end (as happened repeatedly earlier in 2026 with Conquest, Magic, Horizon and Elation) would add unplanned revenue-producing ship-days and could push the fu - no case: Every available data point — unchanged guidance across four straight quarterly releases, zero cumulative deviation through nine months, explicit Q4 capacity decline guidance, and repeated management language of "intentionally measured" and "largely fixed" capacity — points to Carnival landing at or very near, but not clearly above, 97.4 million ALBDs; absent an unguided late addition of sailing days (which the company's own dry-dock-delay history shows can just as easily cut days as add them), t

tools

tool	status	time	items	summary
kalshi_direct	OK	0.2s	1	## This Market's Kalshi Data Above 97.4 million (KXCCLA-28JANALBD-97400000.0) - Current price (probability): 24.00% (live; bid 22% / ask 24%) - 7-day price change: +3.00% - 30-day price change: +1.00% - Average daily volume: 439 contracts - Price range: 5.00% - 28.00% - Data points: 33 days
resolution_source	OK	7.0s	1	already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=False; last_updated=2026-09-29. The fetched pages show Carnival Corporation's investor relations page and SEC EDGAR 10-Q filing list, including filings through Q3 2026 (filed 2026-09-29), but no actual available lower berth days (ALBD) figures are provided
kalshi_related	OK	0.7s	1	1 related markets / summaries. series KXCCLA: 0 markets (skipped 13 no-signal) \| keyword 'Carnival lower berth days': ok
earnings_data	OK	0.3s	1	Fetched FMP data for 1 ticker(s).
article_search	OK	0.3s	8	Fetched 8 unique articles across 1 queries (lookback=60d). 'Carnival third quarter 2026 ALBDs available lower berth days capacity growth guidance': 8 articles

research loops · 4/4 ok · 14 searches · 6 page reads

dimension	status	time	searches	page reads	report
current state	OK	31s	2	2	4389 chars
base rate	OK	46s	5	1	4117 chars
yes case	OK	68s	4	2	4767 chars
no case	OK	32s	3	1	5213 chars

report: current state

- [2026-09-29] Carnival Corporation's Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K, SEC filing) provides official full-year 2026 guidance: ALBDs (in millions) for Full Year 2026: 97.4, with capacity growth compared to prior year of 1.0 percent . This guidance figure equals exactly the 97.4 million threshold in the market's rules — the question resolves "Above" 97,400,000, so Carnival hitting precisely 97.4M would not qualify as "above" unless actuals exceed guidance. - [2026-09-29] Nine-month (through August 31, 2026) actual ALBDs reported in the same release: Three Months Ended August 31, 2026 ALBDs (b) 24.9, Nine Months Ended August 31, 2026 ALBDs (b) 73.3, versus 72.3 in the prior-year nine-month period (SEC 8-K statistical tables). - [2026-09-29] Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance calls for ALBDs (in millions) for 4Q 2026: 24.1, with a (0.1)% capacity decline compared to prior year . Adding 73.3M (9-month actual) + 24.1M (Q4 guidance) = 97.4M, consistent with the full-year guidance figure. - [2026-09-29] Carnival's Q3 2026 results beat guidance broadly: net income was $1.9 billion, an all-time high for the third quarter, and adjusted net income was $2.0 billion, exceeding June guidance by $100 million , but the ALBD/capacity guidance itself was described as essentially unchanged — management explicitly reiterated "flat capacity growth" language. - [2026-09-29] On the earnings call, management noted customer deposits reached a third quarter record of approximately $7.6 billion, up about 7% despite flat capacity growth over the next 12 months , signaling capacity (and thus ALBDs) is being held deliberately tight rather than expanded. - [2026-09-29] Guruofocus coverage of the same release confirms: Carnival's guidance for 2026 anticipates an operational improvement exceeding $150 million in adjusted net income, driven by higher net yields and cost efficiencies per ALBD, with net yields expected to increase approximately 2.3% over 2025's record levels — the emphasis is on yield/pricing, not capacity growth, reinforcing that ALBDs are not expected to materially exceed the 97.4M guided figure. - [2026-08-31] Carnival's Q2 2026 earnings release (8-K) had already signaled capacity discipline: fuel consumption per ALBD improved 5.6 percent, reflecting the company's efforts and investments to continuously reduce fuel consumption, which helped partially mitigate a nearly 30 percent increase in fuel prices , with no upward revision to full-year ALBD guidance at that point. - [2026-09-30] Third-party aggregator Octagon AI, tracking this exact Kalshi market, noted the official projection is approximately 97.4 million, with bearish catalysts suggesting a slight downward risk to exceeding that specific target, and Carnival's 2026 ALBDs are highly likely to exceed 97 million per company guidance, but exceeding 97.4 million ALBDs appears unlikely . - [2026-10-01] TipRanks' historical ALBD tracker for Carnival shows cumulative quarterly figures of Aug 31, 2026: 24.90M; May 31, 2026: 24.70M; Feb 28, 2026: 23.70M , consistent with the 8-K's reported 73.3M nine-month cumulative total (23.7+24.7+24.9≈73.3M). - [2026-09-29] Management's capital allocation commentary and 2027 outlook (from the same release) emphasized measured, not aggressive, capacity growth: forecast capacity increase of just 0.5% in 2027 compared to 2026 , reinforcing a pattern of intentionally modest capacity expansion rather than overshooting guidance. NOT FOUND: No fourth-quarter 2026 actual ALBD figure exists yet (Q4 FY2026 ends Nov 30, 2026; results typically reported in December 2026). No official upward revision to the 97.4M full-year ALBD guidance figure was found in the September 29, 2026 release or subsequent coverage — the figure has remained unchanged from June guidance through the Q3 report. BOTTOM LINE: Through three quarters of fiscal 2026, Carnival has reported 73.3 million ALBDs, and the company's own Q4 guidance (24.1 million) implies a full-year total of exactly 97.4 million — matching, not exceeding, the market's 97.4 million threshold; management's repeated emphasis on "flat" and "intentionally measured" capacity growth suggests the actual reported figure is likely to land at or very near 97.4 million, with any resolution to "Above" dependent on marginal rounding/beat versus the unchanged guidance rather than a clear capacity overshoot.

report: base rate

- [2025-12-19] Carnival's initial FY2025 guidance (given in Dec 2024) was for full-year ALBDs of 96.3 million; ALBDs for 2025 were guided at 23.6, 24.3, 24.6, and 23.9 million for the four quarters, summing to a full year of 96.3 million, with capacity growth of 0.8 percent . https://www.carnivalcorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/2024-4Q-Earnings-Release-8-K_MA_Final.pdf - [2025-12-19] Actual FY2025 ALBDs came in at 96.5 million for 2025, versus 95.6 million in 2024 and 91.3 million in 2023 — i.e., actual exceeded the original full-year guide of 96.3M by about 0.2M (≈0.2%), a modest historical "beat" pattern on this specific metric. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815097/000081509726000007/ccl-20251130.htm - [2025-12-19] For FY2026, Carnival's initial guidance (Dec 2025 release) set quarterly/annual ALBDs at 23.7, 24.7, 24.9, and 24.1 million for the four quarters of 2026, summing to a full year of 97.4 million, with capacity growth of 0.9 percent . https://www.carnivalcorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2025-4Q-Earnings-Release-Final-Draft_MA_Final.pdf - [2026-03-27] This 97.4 million full-year ALBD figure was reaffirmed unchanged in the Q1 2026 earnings release guidance table. https://www.carnivalcorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/2026-1Q-Earnings-Release-Final-Draft.pdf - [2026-06-23] The 97.4 million figure was again reaffirmed unchanged in the Q2 2026 earnings release guidance table, with Q3 guided at 24.9 million. https://www.carnivalcorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/2026-2Q-Earnings-Release-Final-Draft.pdf - [2026-09-29] The Q3 2026 earnings release guidance table again shows Full Year 2026 ALBDs of 97.4 million, with capacity growth compared to prior year of 1.0 percent , and Q4 guided at 24.1 million with capacity declining 0.1 percent year-over-year. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000815097/000081509726000104/a20263qearningsrelease8-k.htm - [2026-09-29] Actual year-to-date (nine months ended August 31, 2026) ALBDs were reported at 73.3 million actual for the nine months, versus 72.3 million in the prior-year period , exactly matching the sum of the three guided quarters (23.7+24.7+24.9=73.3), i.e. zero deviation from guidance so far this year. https://www.carnivalcorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/2026-3Q-Earnings-Release-Final-Draft.pdf - [2026-09-29] Management's commentary this quarter emphasized "flat capacity growth" and "intentionally measured capacity growth," language reinforcing that capacity (ALBDs) is being actively managed as a deliberate, non-aggressive lever rather than left to float upward opportunistically. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000815097/000081509726000104/a20263qearningsrelease8-k.htm - [2026-09-30] A third-party quantitative aggregator (Octagon AI) modeling this exact Kalshi contract noted official full-year guidance is "approximately 97.4 million," with the model estimating the "Above 97 million" threshold at 96% but flagging that exceeding the specific 97.4 million figure "appears unlikely." https://www.octagonai.co/markets/companies/kpis/carnival-cruise-available-lower-berth-days-in-2026 BOTTOM LINE: The reference class is narrow (Carnival's own quarterly ALBD guidance, which is a near-mechanical function of ship deployment schedules); historically (FY2025) actual ALBDs beat the original full-year guide by a small margin (~0.2%, i.e., 96.3M guided vs 96.5M actual), but FY2026 guidance of exactly 97.4 million has been reaffirmed unchanged across four consecutive quarterly releases and matched to the decimal through nine months, suggesting unusually high confidence and low historical variance — meaning the outside-view base rate implies the outcome will land very close to, and could land exactly at, 97.4 million, making "Above 97.4 million" a close call rather than a clear Yes or No. NOT FOUND: A precise historical distribution of "guided vs. actual ALBD" beats/misses across many years (only FY2024–FY2025 data points were available) to compute a robust statistical base rate for how often actual ALBD exceeds the final full-year guide by a strict (non-zero) margin.

report: yes case

YES means: Carnival Corporation's actual full-year fiscal 2026 ALBDs (for the twelve months ended November 30, 2026, as reported in Carnival's Q4/FY2026 earnings release, expected mid-December 2026) come in strictly above 97.4 million — i.e., the company's own reported ALBD figure rounds to 97.5 million or higher, not 97.4 million or below. - [2025-12-19] Carnival's FY2025 ALBD guidance was raised intra-year: the company's original guide was 96.3 million, but by the Q3 2025 release (Sept 29, 2025) the full-year ALBD line already read 96.5 million, and the final reported FY2025 actual matched that at 96.5 million — demonstrating a precedent in which Carnival's full-year ALBD guidance can move upward by roughly 0.2 million (~0.2%) between the initial December guide and the final figure, driven by operational timing rather than announced capacity additions. https://www.carnivalcorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2025-4Q-Earnings-Release-Final-Draft.pdf - [2026-01-15] Carnival's CFO disclosed on the December 2025 earnings call that the corporation is scheduling "over 600 drydock days" across its eight brands in 2026, including a near-50-day AIDAmar drydock slot specifically scheduled to begin in November 2026 — squarely inside Carnival's fiscal Q4 (Sept–Nov) and right at the fiscal year-end cutoff (Nov 30). https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/2026/01/carnival-corporation-planning-over-600-drydock-days-in-2026/ - [2026-01-15] The same report also flags long out-of-service periods for Carnival Freedom and Carnival Luminosa in September 2026, meaning multiple ships are scheduled to go in and out of drydock during the very quarter (Q4 FY2026) whose guided 24.1 million ALBDs is the sole remaining swing factor for whether the full year exceeds 97.4 million. https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/2026/01/carnival-corporation-planning-over-600-drydock-days-in-2026/ - [2025-08-18] Carnival's 2026 drydock calendar has already shown a pattern of repeated postponements during the year — Carnival Conquest's drydock was rescheduled twice (from January to February 2026), and Carnival Magic's and Carnival Horizon's 2025/2026 drydocks were separately rescheduled — establishing that Carnival's actual out-of-service (and therefore in-service, ALBD-generating) days have deviated from original planning assumptions multiple times in 2026, typically by shrinking or shifting dry-dock windows rather than lengthening them, which mechanically keeps ships earning ALBDs for more days than originally budgeted. https://www.cruisehive.com/carnival-conquests-dry-dock-postponed-for-second-time-guests-compensated/184452 - [2026-01-15] If any of the remaining scheduled Q4 2026 out-of-service periods (AIDAmar in November, Freedom/Luminosa in September) slip later into 2027 — following the exact same postponement pattern already seen multiple times this fiscal year with Conquest, Magic, Horizon and Elation — the affected ships would sail additional revenue-producing days within fiscal Q4 2026 that were not counted in the 24.1 million ALBD guide, pushing the full-year total mechanically above 97.4 million. https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/2026/01/carnival-corporation-planning-over-600-drydock-days-in-2026/ - [2025-12-19] Carnival's own commentary has repeatedly emphasized a track record of "outperforming guidance for the fourth time in 2025," a general corporate pattern of beating its own forecasts across financial and operational metrics, which — while mostly about yields and costs — reflects an institutional tendency toward conservative guidance that has, at least once in the two-year sample available (FY2025), also applied to the ALBD line itself. https://www.carnivalcorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2025-4Q-Earnings-Release-Final-Draft.pdf BOTTOM LINE: The single most plausible path to YES is a repeat of the FY2025 pattern — where original ALBD guidance was revised up during the year and the final actual matched the raised figure exactly — combined with Q4 FY2026's unusually heavy and already-volatile drydock schedule (AIDAmar, Freedom, Luminosa) whose further postponement past fiscal year-end (as happened repeatedly earlier in 2026 with Conquest, Magic, Horizon and Elation) would add unplanned revenue-producing ship-days and could push the full-year ALBD total fractionally above the unchanged 97.4 million guide. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any Carnival announcement adding extra charter voyages, un-planned redeployments, or itinerary extensions specifically increasing fiscal Q4 2026 capacity beyond the 24.1 million guided ALBDs; no confirmation that the AIDAmar, Freedom, or Luminosa drydocks scheduled in Q4 2026 have in fact been delayed or shortened as of the October 2026 reporting date.

report: no case

YES means: Carnival Corporation's reported full-year 2026 Available Lower Berth Days (ALBDs) actuals come in strictly above 97,400,000 (i.e., exceed, not just meet, the company's own guidance figure). The NO case argues this will not happen — that the final reported number lands at or below 97.4 million. - [2026-09-29] Carnival's own Q3 2026 guidance table shows Q4 2026 ALBDs of 24.1 million alongside a capacity **decline** of 0.1% year-over-year for the quarter — not growth — meaning the company itself is forecasting a shrinking, not expanding, Q4 fleet-days base. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000815097/000081509726000104/a20263qearningsrelease8-k.htm - [2026-09-29] The nine-month actual ALBD figure (73.3 million) matches the sum of the three guided quarterly figures (23.7+24.7+24.9) to the decimal, i.e. zero cumulative deviation from guidance through three quarters — a stronger "stickiness to guidance" signal than the FY2025 precedent cited in the base-rate report. https://www.carnivalcorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/2026-3Q-Earnings-Release-Final-Draft.pdf - [2026-09-29] Management's Q3 earnings-call language repeatedly stressed "intentionally measured capacity growth" and that demand is growing "well ahead of" capacity — deliberate restraint rather than opportunistic addition of sailing days, which is the operative mechanism that would be needed to push ALBDs above guidance. https://ng.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/earnings-call-transcript-carnival-beats-q3-2026-estimates-and-lifts-outlook-93CH-2714705 - [2026-09-29] On the same call, management stated capacity is "largely fixed for the next several years," with 2027 growth guided at just 0.5% (versus 1.0% in 2026), reinforcing a multi-year pattern of capacity discipline that argues against any unplanned late-year ALBD overshoot in FY2026. https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/09/62054158/carnival-reports-q3-2026-results-full-earnings-call-transcript - [2026-09-29] Unlike net yields and unit costs — which management explicitly said beat June guidance (yields up 1.2 points, costs 100bps better) — ALBD/capacity guidance was not revised upward in the Q3 release; it was reiterated unchanged at 97.4 million full-year, a different treatment from the metrics the company is willing to raise intra-year. https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/carnival-corporation-outperforms-guidance-delivering-best-ever-revenues-net-yields - [2025-01 to 2026-01] Carnival's own dry-dock schedule shows a pattern of **postponements that push maintenance windows later** (e.g., Carnival Conquest's dry dock moved from August/September 2025 to January 2026, then to February 2026), which — if it recurs for any Q4 2026 scheduled maintenance — would tend to reduce, not increase, revenue-producing operating days versus plan. https://www.cruisehive.com/carnival-conquests-dry-dock-postponed-for-second-time-guests-compensated/184452 - [2026-09-29] The Q3 2026 earnings call also flagged that residual disruption from a 2025 decision to redeploy ships away from Arabian Gulf voyages (originally planned for Q1 2026) continues to affect deployment and will "carry heavily into bookings for the first quarter of 2027" — evidence that capacity/itinerary planning has already been cut back once this fiscal year rather than expanded. https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/09/62054158/carnival-reports-q3-2026-results-full-earnings-call-transcript - [2026-09-29] ALBD is explicitly defined by Carnival as a mechanical function of "passenger capacity... multiplying passenger capacity by revenue-producing ship operating days" — a figure driven by fixed ship deployment schedules set far in advance, not by demand or pricing outcomes that beat guidance; this structurally limits the degree to which strong Q3 demand/pricing beats (which drove the net income and EPS upside) could translate into higher ALBDs. https://www.carnivalcorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/2026-3Q-Earnings-Release-Final-Draft.pdf - [2026-09-30] A third-party tracker modeling this exact market characterized exceeding the specific 97.4 million threshold as unlikely even while rating "above 97 million" as highly likely, implying market-savvy observers see the marginal "beat the precise guide" scenario as the harder bar to clear. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/companies/kpis/carnival-cruise-available-lower-berth-days-in-2026 BOTTOM LINE: Every available data point — unchanged guidance across four straight quarterly releases, zero cumulative deviation through nine months, explicit Q4 capacity decline guidance, and repeated management language of "intentionally measured" and "largely fixed" capacity — points to Carnival landing at or very near, but not clearly above, 97.4 million ALBDs; absent an unguided late addition of sailing days (which the company's own dry-dock-delay history shows can just as easily cut days as add them), the structural case favors NO. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any new ship delivery, extended itinerary, or capacity add specifically scheduled for Q4 FY2026 (Sept–Nov 2026) that would push actual ALBDs above the 24.1 million guided figure; Q4 FY2026 actual results have not yet been reported (expected ~December 2026).

3. Forecasters 5 draws · Opus 5.5 + GPT-5.6 Sol · plain mean

claude-opus-5-5

45% conf

Yes	30%
No	70%

(0) Not resolved: Q3 release (Sept 29) shows 73.3M ALBDs through 9 months, exactly matching guidance, with Q4 guided at 24.1M for a full year of exactly 97.4M, the threshold itself; final data comes in the Q4 release (~Dec 2026) and the 10-K. (a) Resolving data arrives in ~2-4 months, well before the 2028 close. (b) Status quo is a reported 97.4M, which is not 'Above' at one-decimal precision, so No is favored. (c) No: capacity stays 'intentionally measured', Q4 drydocks run as planned, and the release prints 97.4M or an exact 10-K figure falls just under 97,400,000. (d) Yes: rounding in the 73.3M/24.1M components leaves a true total of roughly 97.3-97.5M; if Kalshi uses the exact 10-K count, about half that range clears. Guided growth also ticked up from 0.9% to 1.0% with 97.4M unchanged, hinting the unrounded figure has drifted upward, and an AIDAmar drydock slip could add days. Against this, management stresses fixed capacity and a Q4 decline, and a one-decimal reading would require 97.5M. Net, I lean modestly above the 24% market anchor because of the rounding ambiguity, while uncertainty over how the figure is read for resolution keeps me below 50%.

claude-opus-5-5

45% conf

Yes	25%
No	75%

(0) The condition is not yet met or ruled out. Fiscal 2026 ends Nov 30, 2026. The full-year ALBD figure will appear in the Q4 release around mid-December 2026 and in the 10-K, likely filed in January 2027. (a) About two months of operations remain, and the market closes in 2028. Resolution should come within about 3-4 months. (b) Status quo: nine-month actual ALBDs were 73.3M, matching guidance to the decimal. Q4 guidance of 24.1M implies exactly 97.4M, which is not 'above' if the reported figure is rounded to one decimal. Guidance has been reaffirmed unchanged across four releases. (c) NO scenario: Q4 lands at or slightly below 24.1M, with drydocks proceeding as planned and management keeping capacity 'intentionally measured'. The reported figure is then 97.4M or a bit lower. (d) YES scenario: Kalshi resolves on an exact (unrounded) count from the 10-K, and the true figure sits in the upper half of the 97.35-97.45M rounding band. Alternatively, Q4 drydock slippage or schedule shifts add ship-days, echoing FY2025, when the 96.3M guide ended at 96.5M. Rounding ambiguity is the main swing factor: an exact-count resolution is roughly a coin flip, while a rounded resolution needs 97.5M, about 10-15%. Blending these lands near the Kalshi anchor of 24%, so I stay close to market.

claude-opus-5-5

55% conf

Yes	25%
No	75%

(0) Not resolved: FY2026 ends Nov 30, 2026 and the full-year ALBD figure comes in the December 2026 release and 10-K; the resolution-source read found no full-year figure. (a) About 2.5 months until the data is reported; trading closes March 2028. (b) Status quo is No: the Sept 29 Q3 release showed 73.3M nine-month ALBDs, matching guidance, plus a 24.1M Q4 guide, implying exactly 97.4M, and equal is not 'above'. (c) No: Q4 runs to plan or drydocks run long, giving 97.4M or less, consistent with 'flat'/'intentionally measured' capacity language and a guide unchanged across four releases. (d) Yes: drydock postponements or small gains add Q4 ship-days, or an unrounded 10-K count lands at 97.40-97.45M. FY2025 drifted up (96.3M guided to 96.5M actual), but that showed in guidance by Q3 and the 2026 guide is unchanged. The rounded-vs-precise resolution question keeps meaningful Yes probability, so I stay near the 24% anchor.

gpt-5.6-sol

78% conf

Yes	22%
No	78%

(0) The condition is not already met or impossible: Carnival’s September 29 SEC release reports 73.3 million ALBDs through nine months and guides to 97.4 million for the full year, so the actual Q4/FY2026 figure must still be reported strictly above 97.4 million. (a) Fiscal 2026 ends November 30, leaving about two months of operations, with final results likely reported in December 2026 well before the March 2028 trading close. (b) If nothing changes, Q4 guidance of 24.1 million added to 73.3 million year-to-date produces exactly 97.4 million, which resolves No because the threshold is strict. (c) No results if Carnival executes its largely fixed deployment and drydock schedule near guidance, or if disruptions reduce operating days, leaving the reported total at 97.4 million or below. (d) Yes could result from a remaining drydock being shortened or postponed beyond fiscal year-end, adding enough revenue-producing ship-days for the reported total to round to at least 97.5 million; FY2025 provides a limited precedent for a roughly 0.2 million ALBD beat. I anchor on Kalshi’s 24% Yes price and move slightly lower because guidance has remained unchanged across four releases, actuals matched guidance through nine months, and no specific Q4 capacity addition has been identified, though these fresh public facts are likely substantially priced already.

gpt-5.6-sol

78% conf

Yes	21%
No	79%

(0) The condition is not already resolved: Carnival’s September 29 Q3 release reports 73.3 million ALBDs through nine months and guides to 97.4 million for the full year, but Q4 actuals have not yet been reported. (a) Roughly two months remain in Carnival’s fiscal year ending November 30, 2026, with final results expected around December 2026, well before the market’s March 2028 close. (b) If current plans hold, Q4 contributes the guided 24.1 million ALBDs, producing exactly 97.4 million and therefore resolving No because the threshold is strictly Above 97.4 million. (c) The clearest No scenario is that Carnival’s largely fixed deployment and drydock schedule runs as planned—or suffers modest disruption—leaving the reported total at 97.4 million or lower. (d) A Yes could result if a remaining Q4 drydock is shortened or postponed beyond fiscal year-end, adding enough revenue-producing ship-days for Carnival to report at least 97.5 million after rounding; FY2025’s roughly 0.2 million guidance beat shows this is possible. I price Yes at 21%, slightly below Kalshi’s 24% anchor, because 2026 guidance has remained unchanged across four releases, actuals have matched guidance through nine months, and management still forecasts a 0.1% year-over-year Q4 capacity decline without identifying any late capacity addition.

4. Final plain mean of 5 draws

25% (60% confidence)

Yes: 25% No: 75%

Mean of 5 draws (0.30, 0.25, 0.25, 0.22, 0.21). (0) Not resolved: Q3 release (Sept 29) shows 73.3M ALBDs through 9 months, exactly matching guidance, with Q4 guided at 24.1M for a full year of exactly 97.4M, the threshold itself; final data comes in the Q4 release (~Dec 2026) and the 10-K. (a) Resolving data arrives in ~2-4 months, well before the 2028 close. (b) Status quo is a reported 97.4M, which is not 'Above' at one-decimal precision, so No is favored. (c) No: capacity stays 'intentionally measured', Q4 drydocks run as planned, and the release prints 97.4M or an exact 10-K figure falls just under 97,400,000. (d) Yes: rounding in the 73.3M/24.1M components leaves a true total of roughly 97.3-97.5M; if Kalshi uses the exact 10-K count, about half that range clears. Guided growth also ticked up from 0.9% to 1.0% with 97.4M unchanged, hinting the unrounded figure has drifted upward, and an AIDAmar drydock slip could add days. Against this, management stresses fixed capacity and a Q4 decline, and a one-decimal reading would require 97.5M. Net, I lean modestly above the 24% market anchor because of the rounding ambiguity, while uncertainty over how the figure is read for resolution keeps me below 50%.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 138.6s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.